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Ricky Stenhouse Jr will enter his fourth full-time season with RFR. After a strong rookie season back in 2013, many (including myself) thought that RFR have found themselves a solid replacement for the recently departed Matt Kenseth. However after back-to-back seasons of disappointment, there are doubt about how good Ricky Stenhouse Jr is. I think he is starting to take role as the leader of this organization when it comes down to it. There were slight flashes of potential at end of the 2015 season. It was a very dim glance of the 2013 Ricky Stenhouse Jr, but still there a little hope for him. Most weekends I expect him to be a high teen to low-20 driver at best. If he can create some consistency in the middle to high teens in 2016, then I think he could be a solid fantasy option for players. I think consistency will be very key for him and without I don't see him holding much fantasy value on most race weekends.
I would say his best days will come on the shorter flats of New Hampshire and Phoenix. Both racetracks have been solid venues for him so far in his cup career and more importantly have ran well the past two seasons. On the shorter flats in 2015 (4 races), he compiled 20.8 average finish, 19.8 average start, 20.5 average running position and 71.6 driver rating. Last season at New Hampshire he was pretty solid overall. Last season at New Hampshire, he compiled 15.0 average finish, 23.8 average start, 20.0 average running position and 75.6 driver rating. He had finishes of 13th and 17th at New Hampshire. He wasn't great in either race, but he was respectably a high-teen driver in the 2nd New Hampshire race and held 19.0 average running position. In 2014, he had finishes of 39th and 9th. So he has 3 Top 17 finishes in his past 4 races at New Hampshire. Not too bad at all! He been just as good at Phoenix as well. Last season at Phoenix, he compiled 26.5 average finish, 16.5 average start, 21.0 average running position and 67.5 driver rating. He finished 41st and 12th last season at Phoenix. Prior to finishing 41st last fall, he had 5 straight top 18 finishes. So let's look at the past 3 races at Phoenix to get some realistic data. Over the past 3 Phoenix races (Minus 2015 Fall race), he have compiled 15.7 average finish, 17.7 average start, 21.7 average running position and 69.1 driver rating. He probably had his best race ever at Phoenix last spring where he finished 12th. In the event he had 19.0 average running position and 78.0 driver rating. Considering how poorly RFR have performed over the past few seasons, I would say that solid effort right there. When Stenhouse have an high teen-type car and can stay competitively around there, then it a good day for him.
Intermediate racetracks may not be a primary strength for RFR anymore like it was 4 or 5 years ago, but Stenhouse Jr have ran respectably last season there more specifically on the 1.5 mile racetracks. Over the final 5 races on this type of racetrack, he compiled 17.4 average finish, 22.8 average start, 20.0 average running position and 70.9 driver rating. Not great numbers but still real solid for him. I would gladly take those numbers. Considering he finished 3 of those 5 races in either 13th or 18th. His worst finish was 22nd at Homestead. His best intermediate racetrack is probably Kansas honestly which isn't really that impressive though. Over the past 4 races at Kansas, he have compiled 19.5 average finish, 20.3 average start, 20.8 average running position and 68.2 driver rating. Across the board pretty decent numbers for Stenhouse. Not anything special, but he was pretty good last fall at Kansas. That was probably his best race at Kansas outside of his debut in 2013. Last fall at Kansas, he finished 13th and managed 17.0 average running position with 79.8 driver rating. Overall 3 of his past 4 races at Kansas have in 22nd or better. Including 2 of those 3 races ending inside the top 20. His second best racetrack is probably Chicago. Over the past two seasons at Chicago, he have compiled 17.5 average finish, 15.5 average start, 16.5 average running position and 75.4 driver rating. In 3 career starts, his worst career finish is 18th that came last season. It only a small sample size, but he have yet to have a bad race at Chicago. His performance at Chicago have dipped each season, but still it better than most of his track though. Last season, he started 27th, finished 18th (2 laps down), held 20.0 average running position and 69.9 driver rating. He was a high teen to low-20 driver for most of that race, but fairly respectably overall. Anytime Stenhouse performs in the high teens to low-20, I think he will have the potential to steal a quality top 15 or top 18 finish. Given the race plays out for him right. I am not going to sit here and try to tell you how great Stenhouse is, because he isn't. If he get a teen finish on the intermediate racetracks, then that is considered a good day for him probably. I see potential with him though. I think back to how he ran at end of last season during the chase, it gives me a little hope that he can find some consistency in 2016.
Short tracks will probably be his worst type racetrack (along with Road courses and large flats) in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (Richmond, Bristol and Martinsville), he compiled 24.7 average finish, 21.3 average start, 26.0 average running position and 58.4 driver rating. He been probably the best at Bristol over the past two seasons. At Bristol over the past two seasons, he have compiled 8.3 average finish, 18.8 average start, 15.3 average running position and 83.4 driver rating. Prior to last season, he had three straight top 6 finishes at Bristol. In span of races, where he compiled 4.0 average finish with 13.7 average running position and 89.6 driver rating. Let's not get too excited though. The Bristol races been a bit wreckful lately and a lot of quality drivers have ended several laps down. So while he been solid here throughout his short career, I wouldn't expect though type of numbers to continue. Last summer at Bristol was probably his worst race ever at the short track where he finished 21st. To be fair, that not his fault entirely though. He was running respectably running in the teens and got sent for a spin and finished 4 laps down. He haven't been very good at Richmond over the past two seasons. Over the past 4 races at Richmond, he have compiled 27.0 average finish, 19.8 average start, 26.3 average running position and 56.2 driver rating. In those 4 races, he have finished of 16th, 26th, 28th and 38th. His lone good finish came in his last race at Richmond last fall. In the fall Richmond race, he started 19th, finished 16th, held 19.0 average running position and 69.7 driver rating. He wasn't great or anything in that race, but it was nice to see him run respectably for change at this track. Outside of his rookie season in 2013, he have ran pretty poor in his previous three starts. Then there Martinsville and unquestionably one of his worst tracks on the schedule. Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 33.5 average finish, 25.0 average start, 31.5 average running position and 46.8 driver rating. In 6 career starts, his best career finish came in 15th fall 2014. Prior to that his best result came in his debut in 2013, where he finished 25th. Overall he have finished 31st or worse in 4 of his past 5 Martinsvlle starts. Including 39th or 40th in his past 3 of 4 races at Martinsville. Do yourself a favor and just avoid him here, okay? Okay cool! He will be his best at Bristol and probably be good for a middle to high teen finish. At Richmond, I would expect a low to middle-20 type finish out of him. Maybe top 20, if he have a decent car.
Larger flats will be one of the type tracks that will be the toughest for Stenhouse because the lack of horsepower. He never have performed well at either racetrack though. Last season at larger flats, he compiled 39.3 average finish, 26.7 average start, 32.3 average running position and 46.6 driver rating. Yeah he was pretty bad overall. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 29.0 average finish, 25.5 average start, 28.8 average running position and 53.5 driver rating. He had finishes of 41st and 42nd last season at Pocono. In 2014, he had finishes of 15th and 18th. Overall in 6 races, he have finished 26th or worse in 4 of 6 races. The good news is? His finishes are close to together each season so far at Pocono. 41st, 42nd (2015), 15th, 18th (2014) and 26th, 34th (2013). He been just as bad at Indy, if not worse though. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 29.5 average finish, 25.0 average start, 24.5 average running position and 54.0 driver rating. Last season he had his worst effort in 3 starts with 35th place finish. In his previous two starts, he had finishes of 24th and 25th. So not like he have performed very well at either venue so far in his career at RFR. I expect low to middle 20s finishes from him at both tracks realistically.
Plate tracks will likely be the best spot for Stenhouse to score strong finishes at. Over the past 4 races at Daytona, he have compiled 24.0 average finish, 28.0 average start, 22.5 average running position and 62.5 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 19th and 29th. He started off his career with 4 straight top 20 finishes, but since have finished 29th or worse in 2 of his past 3 races. Not exactly encouraging fantasy trends, but still it more about lucky than anything. He just been in the wrong place at the wrong time. Talladega have been kinder to him so far in his career though. Over the past 3 races at Talladega, he have compiled 15.0 average finish, 23.7 average start, 21.7 average running position and 65.0 driver rating. Overall in 5 races, he have finished 13th or better in 4 of those 5 races. In 3 of the 5 races, he have finished inside the top 10. Honestly it hard to predict how the races will play out, but I would say he will have pretty good opportunity to finish respectably. However I would say he will have mix finishes in 2016 though. Realistically two strong finishes and two more poor-ish ones.
Road courses will also be where he performs poorly at in 2016. He have not proven that he is that good of a road course racer yet and still think he ways away. Over the past 2 races at Sonoma, he have compiled 25.5 average finish, 32.0 average start, 22.5 average running position and 58.5 driver rating. He finished 20th last season which remains his best race thus far in 3 career races. In his previous other two races, he had finishes of 31st and 27th. He haven't been much better at Watkin Glenn so far in his career either. Over the past 2 races at WGI, he have compiled 27.0 average finish, 25.5 average start, 26.5 average running position and 50.4 driver rating. He finished 34th. Prior to that, he had finishes of 18th and 20th in his first two career races at WGI. I am not going to go much into details about Stenhouse Jr at road course, because there really isn't enough data to make a good assumption about him. He should finish anywhere from 18th-23rd on a good race weekend at a road course though.
I am not going to try to sell you how good of a driver Stenhouse Jr is because I cannot. I couldn't even if I wanted to, I don't think anyone could. Simple as it is, RFR development will be key going forward in 2016 for Ricky's success. If RFR does improves in 2016, then I would expect finishes mostly in the high teens. However I am not banking on that. Realistically I am expecting a lot of finishes in the low to middle 20s. Even though I think he will have his fair share of top 15 and top 20 finishes. If he can build any type of consistency, then I think he will become a shallow fantasy option in certain option. For now I don't think he hold much value outside of the plates and shorter flats tracks though.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Ricky Stenhouse Jr will enter his fourth full-time season with RFR. After a strong rookie season back in 2013, many (including myself) thought that RFR have found themselves a solid replacement for the recently departed Matt Kenseth. However after back-to-back seasons of disappointment, there are doubt about how good Ricky Stenhouse Jr is. I think he is starting to take role as the leader of this organization when it comes down to it. There were slight flashes of potential at end of the 2015 season. It was a very dim glance of the 2013 Ricky Stenhouse Jr, but still there a little hope for him. Most weekends I expect him to be a high teen to low-20 driver at best. If he can create some consistency in the middle to high teens in 2016, then I think he could be a solid fantasy option for players. I think consistency will be very key for him and without I don't see him holding much fantasy value on most race weekends.
I would say his best days will come on the shorter flats of New Hampshire and Phoenix. Both racetracks have been solid venues for him so far in his cup career and more importantly have ran well the past two seasons. On the shorter flats in 2015 (4 races), he compiled 20.8 average finish, 19.8 average start, 20.5 average running position and 71.6 driver rating. Last season at New Hampshire he was pretty solid overall. Last season at New Hampshire, he compiled 15.0 average finish, 23.8 average start, 20.0 average running position and 75.6 driver rating. He had finishes of 13th and 17th at New Hampshire. He wasn't great in either race, but he was respectably a high-teen driver in the 2nd New Hampshire race and held 19.0 average running position. In 2014, he had finishes of 39th and 9th. So he has 3 Top 17 finishes in his past 4 races at New Hampshire. Not too bad at all! He been just as good at Phoenix as well. Last season at Phoenix, he compiled 26.5 average finish, 16.5 average start, 21.0 average running position and 67.5 driver rating. He finished 41st and 12th last season at Phoenix. Prior to finishing 41st last fall, he had 5 straight top 18 finishes. So let's look at the past 3 races at Phoenix to get some realistic data. Over the past 3 Phoenix races (Minus 2015 Fall race), he have compiled 15.7 average finish, 17.7 average start, 21.7 average running position and 69.1 driver rating. He probably had his best race ever at Phoenix last spring where he finished 12th. In the event he had 19.0 average running position and 78.0 driver rating. Considering how poorly RFR have performed over the past few seasons, I would say that solid effort right there. When Stenhouse have an high teen-type car and can stay competitively around there, then it a good day for him.
Intermediate racetracks may not be a primary strength for RFR anymore like it was 4 or 5 years ago, but Stenhouse Jr have ran respectably last season there more specifically on the 1.5 mile racetracks. Over the final 5 races on this type of racetrack, he compiled 17.4 average finish, 22.8 average start, 20.0 average running position and 70.9 driver rating. Not great numbers but still real solid for him. I would gladly take those numbers. Considering he finished 3 of those 5 races in either 13th or 18th. His worst finish was 22nd at Homestead. His best intermediate racetrack is probably Kansas honestly which isn't really that impressive though. Over the past 4 races at Kansas, he have compiled 19.5 average finish, 20.3 average start, 20.8 average running position and 68.2 driver rating. Across the board pretty decent numbers for Stenhouse. Not anything special, but he was pretty good last fall at Kansas. That was probably his best race at Kansas outside of his debut in 2013. Last fall at Kansas, he finished 13th and managed 17.0 average running position with 79.8 driver rating. Overall 3 of his past 4 races at Kansas have in 22nd or better. Including 2 of those 3 races ending inside the top 20. His second best racetrack is probably Chicago. Over the past two seasons at Chicago, he have compiled 17.5 average finish, 15.5 average start, 16.5 average running position and 75.4 driver rating. In 3 career starts, his worst career finish is 18th that came last season. It only a small sample size, but he have yet to have a bad race at Chicago. His performance at Chicago have dipped each season, but still it better than most of his track though. Last season, he started 27th, finished 18th (2 laps down), held 20.0 average running position and 69.9 driver rating. He was a high teen to low-20 driver for most of that race, but fairly respectably overall. Anytime Stenhouse performs in the high teens to low-20, I think he will have the potential to steal a quality top 15 or top 18 finish. Given the race plays out for him right. I am not going to sit here and try to tell you how great Stenhouse is, because he isn't. If he get a teen finish on the intermediate racetracks, then that is considered a good day for him probably. I see potential with him though. I think back to how he ran at end of last season during the chase, it gives me a little hope that he can find some consistency in 2016.
Short tracks will probably be his worst type racetrack (along with Road courses and large flats) in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (Richmond, Bristol and Martinsville), he compiled 24.7 average finish, 21.3 average start, 26.0 average running position and 58.4 driver rating. He been probably the best at Bristol over the past two seasons. At Bristol over the past two seasons, he have compiled 8.3 average finish, 18.8 average start, 15.3 average running position and 83.4 driver rating. Prior to last season, he had three straight top 6 finishes at Bristol. In span of races, where he compiled 4.0 average finish with 13.7 average running position and 89.6 driver rating. Let's not get too excited though. The Bristol races been a bit wreckful lately and a lot of quality drivers have ended several laps down. So while he been solid here throughout his short career, I wouldn't expect though type of numbers to continue. Last summer at Bristol was probably his worst race ever at the short track where he finished 21st. To be fair, that not his fault entirely though. He was running respectably running in the teens and got sent for a spin and finished 4 laps down. He haven't been very good at Richmond over the past two seasons. Over the past 4 races at Richmond, he have compiled 27.0 average finish, 19.8 average start, 26.3 average running position and 56.2 driver rating. In those 4 races, he have finished of 16th, 26th, 28th and 38th. His lone good finish came in his last race at Richmond last fall. In the fall Richmond race, he started 19th, finished 16th, held 19.0 average running position and 69.7 driver rating. He wasn't great or anything in that race, but it was nice to see him run respectably for change at this track. Outside of his rookie season in 2013, he have ran pretty poor in his previous three starts. Then there Martinsville and unquestionably one of his worst tracks on the schedule. Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 33.5 average finish, 25.0 average start, 31.5 average running position and 46.8 driver rating. In 6 career starts, his best career finish came in 15th fall 2014. Prior to that his best result came in his debut in 2013, where he finished 25th. Overall he have finished 31st or worse in 4 of his past 5 Martinsvlle starts. Including 39th or 40th in his past 3 of 4 races at Martinsville. Do yourself a favor and just avoid him here, okay? Okay cool! He will be his best at Bristol and probably be good for a middle to high teen finish. At Richmond, I would expect a low to middle-20 type finish out of him. Maybe top 20, if he have a decent car.
Larger flats will be one of the type tracks that will be the toughest for Stenhouse because the lack of horsepower. He never have performed well at either racetrack though. Last season at larger flats, he compiled 39.3 average finish, 26.7 average start, 32.3 average running position and 46.6 driver rating. Yeah he was pretty bad overall. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 29.0 average finish, 25.5 average start, 28.8 average running position and 53.5 driver rating. He had finishes of 41st and 42nd last season at Pocono. In 2014, he had finishes of 15th and 18th. Overall in 6 races, he have finished 26th or worse in 4 of 6 races. The good news is? His finishes are close to together each season so far at Pocono. 41st, 42nd (2015), 15th, 18th (2014) and 26th, 34th (2013). He been just as bad at Indy, if not worse though. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 29.5 average finish, 25.0 average start, 24.5 average running position and 54.0 driver rating. Last season he had his worst effort in 3 starts with 35th place finish. In his previous two starts, he had finishes of 24th and 25th. So not like he have performed very well at either venue so far in his career at RFR. I expect low to middle 20s finishes from him at both tracks realistically.
Plate tracks will likely be the best spot for Stenhouse to score strong finishes at. Over the past 4 races at Daytona, he have compiled 24.0 average finish, 28.0 average start, 22.5 average running position and 62.5 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 19th and 29th. He started off his career with 4 straight top 20 finishes, but since have finished 29th or worse in 2 of his past 3 races. Not exactly encouraging fantasy trends, but still it more about lucky than anything. He just been in the wrong place at the wrong time. Talladega have been kinder to him so far in his career though. Over the past 3 races at Talladega, he have compiled 15.0 average finish, 23.7 average start, 21.7 average running position and 65.0 driver rating. Overall in 5 races, he have finished 13th or better in 4 of those 5 races. In 3 of the 5 races, he have finished inside the top 10. Honestly it hard to predict how the races will play out, but I would say he will have pretty good opportunity to finish respectably. However I would say he will have mix finishes in 2016 though. Realistically two strong finishes and two more poor-ish ones.
Road courses will also be where he performs poorly at in 2016. He have not proven that he is that good of a road course racer yet and still think he ways away. Over the past 2 races at Sonoma, he have compiled 25.5 average finish, 32.0 average start, 22.5 average running position and 58.5 driver rating. He finished 20th last season which remains his best race thus far in 3 career races. In his previous other two races, he had finishes of 31st and 27th. He haven't been much better at Watkin Glenn so far in his career either. Over the past 2 races at WGI, he have compiled 27.0 average finish, 25.5 average start, 26.5 average running position and 50.4 driver rating. He finished 34th. Prior to that, he had finishes of 18th and 20th in his first two career races at WGI. I am not going to go much into details about Stenhouse Jr at road course, because there really isn't enough data to make a good assumption about him. He should finish anywhere from 18th-23rd on a good race weekend at a road course though.
I am not going to try to sell you how good of a driver Stenhouse Jr is because I cannot. I couldn't even if I wanted to, I don't think anyone could. Simple as it is, RFR development will be key going forward in 2016 for Ricky's success. If RFR does improves in 2016, then I would expect finishes mostly in the high teens. However I am not banking on that. Realistically I am expecting a lot of finishes in the low to middle 20s. Even though I think he will have his fair share of top 15 and top 20 finishes. If he can build any type of consistency, then I think he will become a shallow fantasy option in certain option. For now I don't think he hold much value outside of the plates and shorter flats tracks though.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
