Welcome to TimersSports
Brad Keselowski took a step back in 2015 and many people thought he had a disappointing season, even though he was posted a better average finish (11.0) than 2014's 12.6. However he posted less wins (1) and top 5 finishes (9) in 2015. Even though he posted 5 more top 10 finishes. So while his top 10 finishes were more consistent, he lost his upside which made him such a desirable fantasy option. In 2016, I expect him to remain consistent but with more upside though. I think both Penske and JGR will be strong with this 2016 race package, so I fully expect Keselowski to be least a top 10 contender every week.
He will likely be his strongest and most consistent at the intermediate racetracks. Especially the 1.5 milers. Last season on 17 races at intermediate racetracks, he supported 6.9 average finish with 8.4 average running position and 107.3 driver rating. He three times did Brad Keselowski finish outside of the top 10 and for those that are wondering he dominated the Darlington race, while leading 196 laps. That was one of the races that Nascar used the downforce package at. He was very strong on the 1.5 mile racetracks in 2015. He supported 6.5 average finish with 7.8 average running position. He finished 9th or better in all 11 races. Even though he only finished inside the top 5 in 3 races. Those three races were Kentucky, Texas and Homestead. He had the car to beat at Kentucky all weekend long, but he kept getting penalties and kept losing his track position on pit road. He dominated Texas as he led 312 laps from the pole. He was leading with a few laps ago and got passed by Johnson. He also was very strong at Homestead as he finished 3rd after leading a race-high 86 laps. His best tracks would be Kentucky, Texas, Las Vegas, and Chicago.
Keselowski also should be pretty strong on the short flat racetracks of Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last season on the short flat racetracks, he supported 7.3 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 113.9 driver rating. He been really strong at both venues. I would call New Hampshire his better track, but not by much though. Over the preview 2 seasons (4 races) at New Hampshire, he have supported a series-best 5.5 average finish with series-best 4.8 average running position and series-best 125.3 driver rating. He have been stout here recently no doubt, but he always been very strong at New Hampshire. He have finished 12th or better in 9 straight New Hampshire races, dating back to the 2011 season. Overall he have reeled off 10 finishes of 12th or better in 13 career races. Including 7 Top 6 finishes and 4 of those 7 races have ended inside the top 4. Including 2 Top 2 finishes in his previous 3 races prior to last September's 12th place effort. He will be just as strong at Phoenix and have been in recent seasons. Over the previous 4 races at Phoenix (2 seasons), he have supported 5.5 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 111.8 driver rating. Last season he posted finishes of 9th and 6th. He have reeled off 8 straight top 11 finishes. Including 4 straight top 9 finishes and 6 Top 6 finishes over his previous 7 races, prior to finishing 9th last November. Overall on the short flat racetracks, he have reeled off 16 straight Top 12 finishes at Phoenix and New Hampshire. In those 16 races, he have an series-best 6.0 average finish with 6.8 average running position (2nd to Harvick's 6.1 ARP) and 113.5 driver rating (2nd to Harvick's 120 DR). He also leads the series in top 10 finishes (13), Top 15 finishes (16), Top 20 finishes (16) and 2nd in Top 5 finishes (8 - 2nd only to Harvick's 9 Top 5s). His last non-top 12? All the way back in November of 2011! He basically a machine on this type racetrack.
Short tracks will be another type of venue that he will be strong on in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (Martinsville, Richmond and Bristol) , he supported 16.7 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 95.9 driver rating. By looking at the numbers, you would probably say this is a weak type racetrack for him, right? Well that false. He had a lot of bad luck last season. Finished 35th in the first Bristol race, had a issue in the first Richmond race (finished 17th) and 32nd at Martinsville (involved in wreck). His three races he didn't have problems in? He finished 2nd (Martinsville), 6th (Bristol) and 8th (Richmond). He been at his best at Richmond recently. Over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 7.5 average finish (2nd-best in series) with 4.0 average running position (series-best) and 122.7 driver rating (Series-best). Last season he had finishes of 8th and 17th. He was strong in the spring race and probably had the 2nd or 3rd best car, but I believe he was down a cylinder so he couldn't get going on the restarts. He was running top 10 when a late caution came out, so he pitted for 4 tires and fuel. That pretty much ended at shot he had a solid finish. He was also pretty strong in the fall race and finished 8th. He been pretty decent throughout his career. Minus his debut (Fall 2009 - finished 36th) and April 2011 (38th place finish), he have only once finished outside of the top 17. That race in 2013 where he finished 33rd. So overall, he have knocked 8 Top 15 finishes in 13 career races and T Top 10 finishes in his previous 8 races, dating back to 2012. 2 of those 3 races, he didn't finish inside the top 10? He had a top top 5 car in both events. So yeah he been good at Richmond!
He been alright at Bristol. Over the previous 2 seasons (excluding last spring race - finished 35th; misleading data) , he have supported 7.3 average finish with 6.7 average running position and 110.5 driver rating. In those 3 races, he finished 6th, 2nd and 14th. He been pretty solid at Bristol throughout his career. In 12 career races, he have knocked off 9 Top 19 finishes. Including 5 Top 6 finishes over his previous 9 races. 4 of those 5 races (80%) have ended inside the top 3. 3 of those 4 races have resulted in wins or runner-up finishes (August 2011, March 2012 & August 2014 ). I would consider Martinsville his worst racetrack most recently. Over previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 25.8 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 84.9 driver rating. Now numbers are misleading, I have seen Keselowski run very well at Martinsville and he have in the past. In fact, 6 of his first 8 races at Martinsville (March 2010 to April 2013) ended in 12th or better. Including 5 Top 10 finishes. However over his previous 4 races, he have finished 32nd or worse in 3 of 4. This stench of poor finishes (since March 2014) came right after finishing career-high 4th in October 2013. Don't be fooled though. He had top 5 potential cars in all three of the races he wrecked in at Martinsville. If he can keep his car on the track (and the lead lap), he can (and probably will) finish strong.
Big flats will likely be a strong spot for Brad and his Penske teammates in 2016. They have the horsepower advantage over most of the field and are usually very competitive! Last season on the big flats of Indy and Pocono (3 races), he supported 9.7 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 98.6 driver rating. He been very good at Pocono and Indy recently. At Pocono over his previous 4 races (2 seasons), he have supported 11.0 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 102.1 driver rating. He finished 2nd and 17th last season at Pocono. Neither of the Penske cars were that good in the first Pocono race if I remember correctly. I think it the part of the season where they were lacking speed for a few races. Over his previous 9 races at Pocono (dating back to 2011 season), he have managed 5 Top 6 finishes. Including 3 Top 2 finishes. Overall he have managed 8 Top 18 finishes in those 9 races. He also been pretty good at Indy, but there less data to go on though. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 11.0 average running position and 14.5 average running position and 94.1 driver rating. He have finished 12th and 10th over the previous 2 seasons. Overall he have finished 12th or better in 4 of the previous 5 races at Indy, dating back to the 2011 season. His lone non-top 12 finishes? 19th (debut in 2012) and 21st (2012 ). Last season's race was probably his best performance overall honestly. He started deep in the field and start was able to be very competitive. What so impressive about coming from deep in the field (31st starting position - worst ever starting spot at Indy), is because Indy is difficult to make passes at. In that race, he held 10.0 average running position and 102.6 driver rating. Both career-best from a performance standpoint. He also completed 79% of the laps inside the top 15. Also a career-high. Yeah he should pretty good at both Indy and Pocono!
Road courses will be a good type of racetrack for Keselowski in 2016. I fully expect him to perform better at Watkins Glenn than Sonoma. He have found very little success at Sonoma and that what stops him from being put at the top in regards of road course racers. As he have found plenty of success already at Watkins Glenn. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 21.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 92.8 driver rating. Misleading stats though. He finished 35th in the 2014. But finished that up with 7th place effort last season. Overall he have finished 4 of 6 career races inside the top 7. Including 3 straight top 2 from 2011 to 2013 (3 races). He been much worse at Sonoma though. Over previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 20.5 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 64.3 driver rating. His best career finish came in 2011 of 10th. He followed up that race with 12th place finish in 2012. Other than that, his best career finish have been 19th. That 19th place finish came last season. Overall he have finished 19th or worse in 4 of his 6 career races. He needs to do better at Sonoma, considering he is in top tier equipment!
Restrictor Plates usually are hit or miss, even though he is typically a very strong plate racer. Last season at Daytona and Tallaega (4 races), he supported 24.0 average finish with 15.8 average running position and 81.7 driver rating. Typically Brad is a strong performer, but he tend to get caught up in wrecks often at both venues. At Talladega over the previous 4 races (2 seasons), he have supported 16.3 average finish with 18.8 average running position and 84.4 driver rating. He have finished 4th and 1st in 2 of his previous 3 Talladega races. Overall he have reeled off 5 Top 7 finishes over his previous 9 races. He haven't been quite as good recently at Daytona. Over previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 22.8 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 78.1 driver rating. He have finishes of 29th and 41st last season. Overall he have reeled off 4 Top 15 finishes over his previous 10 races. 3 of those 4 races ended inside the top 10. His latest top 10 finish was at the 2014 Daytona 500 though. He been hit or miss at Daytona in my opinion. More miss than anything though.
Twitter - @MattAleza
Brad Keselowski took a step back in 2015 and many people thought he had a disappointing season, even though he was posted a better average finish (11.0) than 2014's 12.6. However he posted less wins (1) and top 5 finishes (9) in 2015. Even though he posted 5 more top 10 finishes. So while his top 10 finishes were more consistent, he lost his upside which made him such a desirable fantasy option. In 2016, I expect him to remain consistent but with more upside though. I think both Penske and JGR will be strong with this 2016 race package, so I fully expect Keselowski to be least a top 10 contender every week.
He will likely be his strongest and most consistent at the intermediate racetracks. Especially the 1.5 milers. Last season on 17 races at intermediate racetracks, he supported 6.9 average finish with 8.4 average running position and 107.3 driver rating. He three times did Brad Keselowski finish outside of the top 10 and for those that are wondering he dominated the Darlington race, while leading 196 laps. That was one of the races that Nascar used the downforce package at. He was very strong on the 1.5 mile racetracks in 2015. He supported 6.5 average finish with 7.8 average running position. He finished 9th or better in all 11 races. Even though he only finished inside the top 5 in 3 races. Those three races were Kentucky, Texas and Homestead. He had the car to beat at Kentucky all weekend long, but he kept getting penalties and kept losing his track position on pit road. He dominated Texas as he led 312 laps from the pole. He was leading with a few laps ago and got passed by Johnson. He also was very strong at Homestead as he finished 3rd after leading a race-high 86 laps. His best tracks would be Kentucky, Texas, Las Vegas, and Chicago.
Keselowski also should be pretty strong on the short flat racetracks of Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last season on the short flat racetracks, he supported 7.3 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 113.9 driver rating. He been really strong at both venues. I would call New Hampshire his better track, but not by much though. Over the preview 2 seasons (4 races) at New Hampshire, he have supported a series-best 5.5 average finish with series-best 4.8 average running position and series-best 125.3 driver rating. He have been stout here recently no doubt, but he always been very strong at New Hampshire. He have finished 12th or better in 9 straight New Hampshire races, dating back to the 2011 season. Overall he have reeled off 10 finishes of 12th or better in 13 career races. Including 7 Top 6 finishes and 4 of those 7 races have ended inside the top 4. Including 2 Top 2 finishes in his previous 3 races prior to last September's 12th place effort. He will be just as strong at Phoenix and have been in recent seasons. Over the previous 4 races at Phoenix (2 seasons), he have supported 5.5 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 111.8 driver rating. Last season he posted finishes of 9th and 6th. He have reeled off 8 straight top 11 finishes. Including 4 straight top 9 finishes and 6 Top 6 finishes over his previous 7 races, prior to finishing 9th last November. Overall on the short flat racetracks, he have reeled off 16 straight Top 12 finishes at Phoenix and New Hampshire. In those 16 races, he have an series-best 6.0 average finish with 6.8 average running position (2nd to Harvick's 6.1 ARP) and 113.5 driver rating (2nd to Harvick's 120 DR). He also leads the series in top 10 finishes (13), Top 15 finishes (16), Top 20 finishes (16) and 2nd in Top 5 finishes (8 - 2nd only to Harvick's 9 Top 5s). His last non-top 12? All the way back in November of 2011! He basically a machine on this type racetrack.
Short tracks will be another type of venue that he will be strong on in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (Martinsville, Richmond and Bristol) , he supported 16.7 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 95.9 driver rating. By looking at the numbers, you would probably say this is a weak type racetrack for him, right? Well that false. He had a lot of bad luck last season. Finished 35th in the first Bristol race, had a issue in the first Richmond race (finished 17th) and 32nd at Martinsville (involved in wreck). His three races he didn't have problems in? He finished 2nd (Martinsville), 6th (Bristol) and 8th (Richmond). He been at his best at Richmond recently. Over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 7.5 average finish (2nd-best in series) with 4.0 average running position (series-best) and 122.7 driver rating (Series-best). Last season he had finishes of 8th and 17th. He was strong in the spring race and probably had the 2nd or 3rd best car, but I believe he was down a cylinder so he couldn't get going on the restarts. He was running top 10 when a late caution came out, so he pitted for 4 tires and fuel. That pretty much ended at shot he had a solid finish. He was also pretty strong in the fall race and finished 8th. He been pretty decent throughout his career. Minus his debut (Fall 2009 - finished 36th) and April 2011 (38th place finish), he have only once finished outside of the top 17. That race in 2013 where he finished 33rd. So overall, he have knocked 8 Top 15 finishes in 13 career races and T Top 10 finishes in his previous 8 races, dating back to 2012. 2 of those 3 races, he didn't finish inside the top 10? He had a top top 5 car in both events. So yeah he been good at Richmond!
He been alright at Bristol. Over the previous 2 seasons (excluding last spring race - finished 35th; misleading data) , he have supported 7.3 average finish with 6.7 average running position and 110.5 driver rating. In those 3 races, he finished 6th, 2nd and 14th. He been pretty solid at Bristol throughout his career. In 12 career races, he have knocked off 9 Top 19 finishes. Including 5 Top 6 finishes over his previous 9 races. 4 of those 5 races (80%) have ended inside the top 3. 3 of those 4 races have resulted in wins or runner-up finishes (August 2011, March 2012 & August 2014 ). I would consider Martinsville his worst racetrack most recently. Over previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 25.8 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 84.9 driver rating. Now numbers are misleading, I have seen Keselowski run very well at Martinsville and he have in the past. In fact, 6 of his first 8 races at Martinsville (March 2010 to April 2013) ended in 12th or better. Including 5 Top 10 finishes. However over his previous 4 races, he have finished 32nd or worse in 3 of 4. This stench of poor finishes (since March 2014) came right after finishing career-high 4th in October 2013. Don't be fooled though. He had top 5 potential cars in all three of the races he wrecked in at Martinsville. If he can keep his car on the track (and the lead lap), he can (and probably will) finish strong.
Big flats will likely be a strong spot for Brad and his Penske teammates in 2016. They have the horsepower advantage over most of the field and are usually very competitive! Last season on the big flats of Indy and Pocono (3 races), he supported 9.7 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 98.6 driver rating. He been very good at Pocono and Indy recently. At Pocono over his previous 4 races (2 seasons), he have supported 11.0 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 102.1 driver rating. He finished 2nd and 17th last season at Pocono. Neither of the Penske cars were that good in the first Pocono race if I remember correctly. I think it the part of the season where they were lacking speed for a few races. Over his previous 9 races at Pocono (dating back to 2011 season), he have managed 5 Top 6 finishes. Including 3 Top 2 finishes. Overall he have managed 8 Top 18 finishes in those 9 races. He also been pretty good at Indy, but there less data to go on though. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 11.0 average running position and 14.5 average running position and 94.1 driver rating. He have finished 12th and 10th over the previous 2 seasons. Overall he have finished 12th or better in 4 of the previous 5 races at Indy, dating back to the 2011 season. His lone non-top 12 finishes? 19th (debut in 2012) and 21st (2012 ). Last season's race was probably his best performance overall honestly. He started deep in the field and start was able to be very competitive. What so impressive about coming from deep in the field (31st starting position - worst ever starting spot at Indy), is because Indy is difficult to make passes at. In that race, he held 10.0 average running position and 102.6 driver rating. Both career-best from a performance standpoint. He also completed 79% of the laps inside the top 15. Also a career-high. Yeah he should pretty good at both Indy and Pocono!
Road courses will be a good type of racetrack for Keselowski in 2016. I fully expect him to perform better at Watkins Glenn than Sonoma. He have found very little success at Sonoma and that what stops him from being put at the top in regards of road course racers. As he have found plenty of success already at Watkins Glenn. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 21.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 92.8 driver rating. Misleading stats though. He finished 35th in the 2014. But finished that up with 7th place effort last season. Overall he have finished 4 of 6 career races inside the top 7. Including 3 straight top 2 from 2011 to 2013 (3 races). He been much worse at Sonoma though. Over previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 20.5 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 64.3 driver rating. His best career finish came in 2011 of 10th. He followed up that race with 12th place finish in 2012. Other than that, his best career finish have been 19th. That 19th place finish came last season. Overall he have finished 19th or worse in 4 of his 6 career races. He needs to do better at Sonoma, considering he is in top tier equipment!
Restrictor Plates usually are hit or miss, even though he is typically a very strong plate racer. Last season at Daytona and Tallaega (4 races), he supported 24.0 average finish with 15.8 average running position and 81.7 driver rating. Typically Brad is a strong performer, but he tend to get caught up in wrecks often at both venues. At Talladega over the previous 4 races (2 seasons), he have supported 16.3 average finish with 18.8 average running position and 84.4 driver rating. He have finished 4th and 1st in 2 of his previous 3 Talladega races. Overall he have reeled off 5 Top 7 finishes over his previous 9 races. He haven't been quite as good recently at Daytona. Over previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 22.8 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 78.1 driver rating. He have finishes of 29th and 41st last season. Overall he have reeled off 4 Top 15 finishes over his previous 10 races. 3 of those 4 races ended inside the top 10. His latest top 10 finish was at the 2014 Daytona 500 though. He been hit or miss at Daytona in my opinion. More miss than anything though.
Twitter - @MattAleza
