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1-Jamie Mac: CGR showed signs of life at Martinsville, but it wasn't so much Jamie Mac though. He struggled all weekend and finished 23rd. He now looks to rebound at Texas, but he have not faired well this season on the intermediate racetracks. On the intermediate tracks this season, he have compiled 15.7 average finish with 18.3 average running position and 67.1 driver rating. His ARP and Driver rating stands out because how poorly his numbers have been. Really his only respectfully finish was at Cali and he got that finish because of late-race pit strategy. He had about a 15th or 16th place car for the event at best. You say whatever you like about Jamie, but at end of the day he have not performed well. To me it hard to see Jamie as a relevant fantasy option this week. Even though, he have a pretty good Texas record recently. Over the past 4 races at Texas, JMac have compiled 9.5 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 90.4 driver rating.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski almost had his race won last fall that would have punched his ticket to Texas, but Jimmie Johnson had another ideas in the closing laps though. Keselowski now returns to the Lonestar state with revenge on his mind. Keselowski have been very good at Texas recently. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 6.3 average finish with 5.8 average running position and 120.3 driver rating. Keselowski have finished 6 of the past 7 Texas races inside the top 9. Including 3 straight Top 5 finishes. 4 of the past 5 Texas races have ended inside the top 6. He also have led in 6 straight races as well. Keselowski also have faired very well this season on the intermediate racetracks. On 3 Intermediate racetracks this season, he have compiled 6.3 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 100.5 driver rating. Keselowski in my mind is a boarderline top 5 driver with some upside.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is off to a great start this season and he should only get better as the season goes off. So far in 6 races, he have 4 Top 10 finishes and 2 of them have ended inside the top 5. Dillon strong area will be on the intermediate racetracks, such as Texas (where we go this weekend). Over the past 4 races at Texas, he have compiled 18.3 average finish with 18.5 average running position and 73.7 driver rating. In 6 career starts at Texas, he have only managed one finish better than 20th place. However that came last fall when he finished 11th. He was pretty good in that race and posted career-best numbers at the track. He started 26th, finished 11th, posted 16.0 average running position and 84.1 driver rating. This season he have been very good on the intermediate racetracks. In 3 races on this type track, he have compiled 13.3 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 104.4 driver rating. His numbers could be better, if his pit gun didn't break at ACS, which prevented his team from getting all the lugnuts tighten on the final pit stop. Dillon should be a popular fantasy option this weekend. He have the potential to knock out another top 10 finish!
4-Kevin Harvick: Kevin Harvick is the favorite in my eyes for many reasons and I think he takes the field to the cleaners on Saturday night. Over the past 4 races at Texas, Harvick have compiled 12.3 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 103.5 driver rating. He had the second-best car last spring and eventually finished 2nd to Jimmie Johnson. Last fall, he finished 3rd and led 11 laps. Overall he have 3 straight Top 3 finishes. However, he finished 42nd in he debut with SHR. In that event (it was a Monday race - I remember because I was there on Saturday night, but had to leave on Sunday), he started 3rd and led a lap early on. After a quick caution for Dale Jr/Jimmie Johnson, he blew his engine though. He also been very strong on the intermediate racetracks this season, in 3 races he have compiled 5.0 average finish with 4.0 average running position and 127.1 driver rating. So what put Harvick over the top? Atlanta race. Atlanta is the most similar racetrack to Texas and he dominated that race. He led 131 laps before getting dropped on a late restart. He had the car to beat all afternoon. He also dominated the Cali race a few weeks ago and finished 2nd. What does Atlanta and Cali have in common with Texas? Tire wear.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey Kahne is finally starting to develop some consistency, sadly it isn't the good kind of consistency though. Over the past 5 Cup races this season, he have finished 22nd or worse in 4 of those races. Despite starting 4 of those 5 races inside the top 13, he have fail to produce results. Which doesn't surprise me in the very least. Kahne have been known for his poor-production since start of the 2014 season. He have struggled on the intermediate racetracks this season. On intermediate racetrack this season, he have compiled 20.3 average finish with 21.7 average running position and 65.8 driver rating. His own good result this season really have been Las Vegas and usually at Vegas, it all about track position. He been good at Texas recently, but nothing over the top though. Over the past 4 races at Texas, he have compiled 19.3 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 91.6 driver rating. His best race at Texas since joining HMS was probably last spring, where he finished 8th. But he was very strong in that race. He had a top 5 car in the event, before fading in the late stages of the race. Speaking of spring races, he have been pretty good in spring races at Texas. How good? 4 straight Top 11 finishes in the past 4 spring races, since joining HMS. In fact, all 4 of those races have resulted in a finish between 7th-11th place. Personally I don't want anything to do with Kahne. I will take current season's data over past seasons data. Current season data says Kahne shouldn't be selected to your fantasy lineups.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is having a pretty up and down season. He started the season with a win at Daytona, then a pair of middle-teen results. Followed by pair of 3rd places finishes at PIR and Cali, and most recently he wrecked out at Martinsville. So 3 Top 5 finishes and 3 finishes outside of the top 15. As the season goes on, I expect Hamlin to become more consistent (like he did last season), but for now I am not too sure about him. Over the past 4 races at Texas, he have compiled 18.0 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 79.6 driver rating. Texas is statically a very good track for Hamlin, with a career average finish of 12.2 in 20 career starts. However, he haven't been quite as good recently. Over the past 5 races at Texas, he have managed 3 Top 11 finishes. Including 2 Top 10 finishes and with a best finish coming of 7th in 2013. Those are pretty good numbers, but he isn't fantasy relevant. Especially when considering, his last top 5 finish was all way back in 2010. In fact, in his first 10 starts he posted 6 Top 7 finishes. Including 3 straight Top 2 finishes in 2009 and 2010. In his past 10 starts since then? Only 1 Top 7 finish. Hamlin just isn't the same after sweeping both Texas races in 2010. He have also struggled this season on the intermediate racetracks. In 3 intermediate races this season, he have compiled 12.7 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 81.0 driver rating. Okay those aren't terrible numbers, but he looked lost at Atlanta and Vegas. His 3rd place run at Cali, helps padden his stats.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Sunday's race at Martinsville couldn't have worked out any better for those of us who are putting stock into Stenhouse on the intermediate tracks. Stenhouse wrecking at Martinsville might scare away the competition from selecting him as a value pick. But not me, I am all in Stenhouse this week! Stenhouse is having a great season and have been on it this season at the intermediates. In 3 races (Cali, Vegas and Atlanta), he have compiled 9.0 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 86.6 driver rating. We know he's a legitimate on this type track by looking at his overall performance. Not like he lucked into an 9.0 average finish, as you can tell by the other stats that are listed. He have been okay at Texas recently as well. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 21.3 average finish with 24.8 average running position and 62.8 driver rating. He was better than that last season though. Last season at Texas, he posted 18.0 average finish with 23.0 average running position and 67.1 driver rating. Not great by any means, but his numbers in 2014 were much worse. Not to mention, Stenhouse have taken a huge step this season from last season in terms of performance.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch is having an awesome season so far with 5 Top 5 finishes in 6 races, including a win last Sunday at Martinsville. Rowdy should continue having success at Texas. As Texas is considered one of his best racetracks on the schedule. He always seems to run well here. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 3.7 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. He have been a machine at Texas recently. Over his past 6 races, he have finished 5 of those 6 races inside the top 4. Pretty similar to what type of production that we have seen from this season. Busch have also been one of the best drivers in the series on the intermediate tracks so far in 2016. In 3 races, he have compiled 10.7 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 97.3 driver rating. He been better than the numbers show. At Atlanta, he won the pole (but it was revoked and had to start at the rear). He never was able to gain the track position to show how good his car really was. He was top 5 good at Vegas and Cali. But he cut a tire, while running 2nd at Cali. Point being, you can expect Kyle Busch to be a great fantasy pick for your team.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards struggled for most of the Martinsville race, but came on strong when it counted most though. He should rebound nicely at Texas though. Texas is one of his better racetracks and should be considered a top 10 at least headed into the race. Over the past 4 races at Texas, he have compiled 9.5 average finish with 13.3 average finish and 91.1 driver rating. Over the past 6 races at Texas, he have posted 5 Top 14 finishes. Including 4 Top 10 finishes. Last season he posted finishes of 10th (spring) and 5th (fall). He wasn't anything beyond a high-single digit type driver in that event. He ran around 9th or 10th for most of the event. He was a legit contender in the fall race though. He ran up toward the front most of the day and eventually finish inside the top 5. Edwards also been a strong contender this season on the intermediate racetracks. In 3 races, he have compiled 10.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 94.3 driver rating. His numbers get deflated because of his 18th place finish at Vegas. He was involved in a late race wreck and his car was never the same after that. He was top 5 strong at Atlanta and agrubly had the 2nd or 3rd-best car at Cali. However he was on older tires on last long green flag run, which put him deeper in the field when the caution came out.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is having a very difficult season so far. I cannot remember a driver who have contended for wins like he have, but yet he always finds way to finish poorly. He will look to bounce back at Texas. Over the past 3 races here (he missed last fall race - suspension) , he have compiled 18.3 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 89.3 driver rating. As you can see, he have also had some tough luck at Texas recently (but where haven't he lately - LOL). In fall 2014, he started from the pole and finished 25th. If I remember correctly, Ryan Newman got into Kenseth. Which led to Kenseth having to pit for repairs in later stages of the race. Last Spring, he was never a contender and ran in the middle teens for much of the event. He finally spun out after fighting with his car all race long. He finished 23rd in that race. That is not a typical Matt Kenseth's Texas race. I consider this one of his best racetracks for a reason. In 26 starts, he have posted 9.9 average finish with 17 Top 10 finishes and 13 Top 5 finishes. Only Johnson historically have better numbers. Before finishing 23rd and 25th in his previous two races here, he posted 4 straight top 12 finishes in his first 4 starts with JGR. A impressive feat of Kenseth is, he have finished 17 of the past 20 races inside the top 12. That's just crazy good! With 15 of those 17 races ending inside the top 9! On the intermediate racetracks this season, he have compiled 25.0 average finish with 13.7 average running position and 94.0 driver rating. Atlanta is the most similar racetrack of the three, we have visited. He arguably had the car to beat in the event. Before getting black flagged after miscommunicated with his team.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney is having a up and down season as a rookie, but looks to get his season on track at Texas. But Texas have not been very kind to Blaney so far in his cup career though. Last season, he made two starts at Texas. In the first event, he ran pretty respectfully overall but blew his engine about 70-some laps into the race. In the fall race, he was probably even worse. Only 26 laps into the event, he got a tire cut down that pretty much ended his day after making heavy contact with the wall. He have ran very strongly this season on the intermediate tracks though. In 3 races, he have compiled 22.0 average finish with 12.7 average running position and 80.1 driver rating. His numbers get deflated because of his 35th place finish at Cali though.
22-Joey Logano: I have a few unwritten rules that I use in fantasy nascar and one of them is always stick with a driver who disappoints. Why? Because more times than not, that driver will come back the following race motivated. After being highly praised all weekend at Martinsville, he basically laid a dud for us fantasy players. However I think he strikes back at Texas in a huge way though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.3 average finish with 14.5 average running position and 97.8 driver rating. He been very good at Texas since joining Penske. He had a tire go down in last fall's event. But he been really strong here otherwise though. In his 5 other starts at Texas (since 2013 season), he have finished 12th or better in every race. Including 4 Top 5 finishes. He have 3 straight Top 5 finishes in spring races at Texas. Including a win in the 2014 event. Logano also been rock solid this season on the intermediate racetracks. In 3 races this season, he have compiled 6.0 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 111.8 driver rating. His numbers could be even better, if he didn't get a speeding penalty at Atlanta. He was running up inside the top 5 or top 6 and had a strong car on the long runs in that event, before getting penalized. I view Logano as a top 5 driver headed into practice.
24-Chase Elliott: As I was afraid of last week, Elliott's inexperience was the ultimate reason for a letdown. However he should bounce back very nicely. Elliott have done a great job of taking care of his tires this season on the worn-out racetracks. He should only get better with more experience. The driver of the 24 car should be considered a easy top 15 driver headed into the weekend and will most likely flirt with a top 10 finish come raceday. Not a lot to say about him, other than he is a stud on the this type racetrack.
27-Paul Menard: Menard had his best performance of the season at Martinsville. However that raises more questions than answers though. Headed into the season (least for the early part), our mindset was that Menard would perform his best on the intermediate tracks. So far I haven't that out of him. In 3 intermediate races in 2016, he have compiled 16.0 average finish with 19.3 average running position and 69.6 driver rating. The most similar track to Texas is Atlanta (as I mentioned earlier) and he struggled there the most. He ran in the low to mid 20s for most of that event. Somehow he lucked into an 18th place finish. He showed improvments at both Vegas and Cali, but he had about 15th place car in both event though. I guess I am hoping to see top 10 or even top 12 potential out of him before wanting to use him. He have ran decent at Texas recently though. Over the past 4 Texas races, he have compiled 20.0 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 81.4 driver rating. None of finishes really stand out to me, as he have mainly finish in the middle teens (13th-18th place). However last spring's race is a standout performance to me! Why? He had his No.27 Chevy hooked up all night long and was running inside the top 5, before he had his engine blow up. Honestly overall, I am not really feeling Menard yet this season. If he runs well at Texas, then maybe we will talk next time we come to an 1.5 mile track.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch's biggest problem this season is fading on the long runs it seems. I was watching his lap times at Martinsville and boy would he drop like a rock late in the run. And that got me thinking, he have had issues all season long with staying up front on a long. That's a fantasy killer right there. Busch been decent this season I would say overall on the intermediate ractracks. In 3 races this season, he have compiled 14.3 average finish with 16.7 average running position and 80.4 driver rating. He finished 4th at Atlanta and 9th at Vegas. He haven't been over the top at Texas either. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 92.0 driver rating. Kurt have posted 2 Top 8 finishes over his past 3 starts. With a best finish of 7th coming in Fall of 2014. However, he have only managed 4 Top 10 finishes over his past 11 races at Texas. His last top 5 finish? All the way back in 2010 when he finished 4th.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is coming off his best finish and performance of the season by far and looks to keep it going at Texas. There a lot to like and a lot to hate about Larson this week. Let's get the bad out of the way. He have struggled this season on the intermediate racetrack. In 3 races this season, he have compiled 33.0 average finish with 28.7 average running position and 44.7 driver rating. There no way around it that Larson's numbers have been ugly this season on this type track. I think Larson's team just missed the setups at Cali and Atlanta. He ran competitively in the low to middle teens at Vegas, until he got an penalty. Which pretty much spent his day completely south after that. On positive side, he have ran very well at Texas recently. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 18.5 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 90.0 driver rating. He agrubly had the 2nd-best car last fall on the long run. I lost track how many times he had to drive from mid-pack to the top 5 (2 or 3 times if I remember right). Well until, he blew another tire. That pretty much ended his day. Point being, he was really strong in the race. He had about a top 10 car last spring, until he got a penalty on the last pit stop. He finished 7th and 5th in 2014 races. So he have had mix results so far in his career at Texas. However I do like how he can ride up against the wall. That is kinda Larson's thing.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson enters Texas with 3 straight wins at this racetrack and could easily make it 4 straight this weekend. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 7.0 average finish with 10.0 average finish and 114.9 driver rating. Johnson really only had one bad race and that was last spring, when he finished 25th. Because of early race Dale Jr incident. He had a very fast car all weekend long and probably should have least contended for another top 5 finish. Outside of that poor performance, he been nearly flawless. Over the past 8 races, he have won 5 times. 5 times since start of the 2012 season. In fact, he have finished inside the top 2 in 6 of the past 12 Texas races. Johnson is the man here and I don't see how you can bet against him really. Okay you could, but it would probably be unwise. He also been stout this season on the intermediate racetracks. In 3 races this season, he have compiled 1.7 average finish with 4.3 average running position and 126.1 driver rating.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex have hit a brick wall this season after the Daytona 500 and haven't finished inside the top 10 since. This have been a major concern for me in recent weeks and I have said this several times in my fantasy nascar updates after practice as well. Truex cannot be trusted right now. He been fast in practice, but he just seems to have something go wrong in the race. He had the 2nd-best car at Atlatna and led some laps actually. He also was very strong at Cali and had a top 3 car, until he and Joey Logano had a little incident. On intermediate racetracks this season, he have compiled 16.7 average finish with 8.7 average running position and 101.5 driver rating. He also have been good at Texas recently. More specifically last season, as he posted finishes of 8th and 9th in 2015. Last season at Texas, he compiled 8.5 average finish with 7.0 average running position and 108.0 driver rating. I really like Truex this week honestly, however I don't really trust him though. So it risk vs reward type deal with Truex in my opinion.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr had a tough race at Martinsville, that eventually resulted in a 14th-place finish for him. Not a terrible afternoon, considering how hard he had to battle back from a lap down. Now he looks to rebound at Texas. Dale have been pretty good at Texas overall since the 2011 season. Over the past 10 races (since 2011 season), he have posted 8 Top 10 finishes. Including 4 Top 6 finishes over his past 5 races. With 2 of those 4 finishes ending inside the top 3 for him. Not too bad at all for driver of the No.88 car. He also have ran very well on the intermediate racetracks this season. In 3 races, he have compiled 7.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 91.0 driver rating.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
