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Update -
A:
1. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson is one of the heavy favorites headed into Saturday night's race. He looked very good in final practice overall. I thought he had a pretty good car overall and personally I think he will be even better in the race. He posted the 8th-best ten lap average in final practice and have won 5 of the past 7 Texas. Combine that with his 3 Top 3 finishes this season on the intermediate racetrack, and you get a dangerous fantasy option. Johnson is a well-round option this weekend. Strong track history, momentum, top 10 starting position and solid practices. He nails every aspect that we are looking for. I cannot find a legit reason to recommend leaving him off your lineup. Plain and simple, I think Johnson is the man to beat headed into the race and will least come away with a top 5 finish.
2. Kevin Harvick - You know after qualifying 21st on Friday, I was wondering what the heck was up with Kevin Harvick. However then I started to watch his lap times in final practice and I just started to laugh. His team said the 4 car didn't have much tire wear and that is something I love, since we see a lot of tire wear at Texas. Lap times at Texas, usually just drop off pretty fast. If you tracked lap times in final practice, then you probably saw that. Harvick posted the 4th-best ten lap average in final practice and should be a heavy contender for the win come Saturday night. He also dominated the Atlanta race earlier this season, which is the most similar racetrack to Texas. Don't be shocked, if Harvick goes out and dominate Texas like that. He have a car that is capable of that.
3. Joey Logano - Logano starts from the 2nd position and should be in contention for another top 5 finish on Saturday night. I don't think he will win, but he should make a very good fantasy option though. Logano will start from the 2nd starting position. Both of the Penske cars seems to be pretty good overall. Logano also have a couple other things going for him as well. 1) Solid track history - 3 top 5 finishes over his past 4 Texas races. 2) He been fast all season on the intermediate racetracks. He was running close to the top 5 at Atlanta, before getting a penalty. Headed into the race, I view him a top 5 guy. Most likely, I would say his range is from 3rd to 6th in terms of finish potential.
4. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski have always been very good at Texas. He should have had this race won last fall, if it wasn't for a late pass by Jimmie Johnson. Regardless, it seems that the 2 team have got another fast car for Keselowski. He was pretty good on the long runs in final practice and posted the 3rd-best ten lap average. Keselowski also have been very consistent at 1.5 milers. He swept the top 10 last season on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks and guess what, he have done the same thing this season. He's a machine is a pretty much lock for a top 10 finish in my opinion. Also he have a pretty stout track record at Texas. As I mention, he almost won this race last fall and should have a shot at another victory come Saturday night. Much like teammate Logano, I view him as a 3rd-6th place guy. That's the likely finish range for him.
5. Kyle Busch - Honestly I could have ranked Busch ahead of both Logano and Keselowski. However I decided to use starting positions as a tie breaker (no real reason), since they are all pretty close to each other when taking everything into consideration. I don't think Busch have a dominating car this weekend, but I do think he have a good car overall. I didn't really pay much attention to Busch or his lap times when I was track laps. I did track a few of his race runs in final practice and his laps were good to me. His lap times fall off little more than I would like. However wasn't really falling-off at a alarming rate, which is usually a good sign at Texas. Also Busch have 5 Top 5 finishes in 6 races this season, so it hard seeing him not contending for another top 5 finish. I think he finishes once again inside the top 5, unless something goes wrong like it did at ACS a few weeks ago.
Rankings: 1) Johnson 2) Harvick 3) Logano 4) Keselowski 5) Busch 6) Dale Jr 7) Kenseth 8) Hamlin 9) Kurt Busch
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Edwards have the best car in this tier and arguably have a top 3 car headed into the race. He have a fast car and should contend for least a top 5 finish. He will start from the pole and could very well win Saturday night's race. Personally I think he's a few adjustments away from being race winning potential on Saturday. Edwards not only have a fast car for the race, but he have ran very well this season on the intermediate racetracks. Edwards also is a former race winner at Texas and knows how to get around this place pretty well. I think Edwards is the 3rd favorite behind Johnson and Harvick. I wouldn't be shocked if Edwards won at Texas, but I think he will come up just short though.
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex started off final practice with a pair of impressive 8-lap runs and showed some really good speed. Then he posted a lengthy long run towards end of final practice and seems to have very good long run speed. Truex posted the 5th-best ten lap average and is easily a top 5 driver based on speed headed into the race. However I don't really trust him though. His last top 10 finish was all the way back at the Daytona 500. But don't be shocked, if Truex goes out and finishes up at the front. He had the 2nd-best car at Atlanta earlier this season and it seems like he have another fast piece this weekend. The big question is: Can Truex finish races? I don't know. He haven't yet, but sooner or later he will catch a break though. I view him as a top 10 guy headed into the race, when taking everything into consideration.
3. Austin Dillon - Dillon one of the drivers who stood out to me overall. I thought he was one of the better drivers in final practice. I didn't think he fell off too much compared to the competition. I will be honest, I focused on him more than most other drivers. And his lap times overall were consistency good. I tracked about 15-lap run in middle of the session and he was still running in the 29.90s by end of that race run. That's pretty darn good right there. He also started off final practice with a strong ten lap run that resulted in the best-ten lap average of the practice session. Dillon is very capable of knocking off another top 10 finish on Saturday night. He have ran very well early in the season and I think he keep up his strong start this season. Dillon is a driver to watch out for!
4. Kasey Kahne - I still don't trust Kasey Kahne, but he have some speed in that car. I highly doubts he finishes up inside the top 10, but I definitely could see him finishing somewhere inside the top 15. Honestly that all you can ask for him. He posted the 2nd-best ten lap average in final practice and the 10th-fastest single lap overall. Not to mention, Kahne have knocked off 4 straight top 11 in Spring Texas races. I am not super excited about Kahne chances to keep that streak alive though. I view him as a 12th-17th place guy really. But he's in good equipment, so I guess it wouldn't be too much of stench for him to sneak out with a top 10 finish though.
5. Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Stenhouse takes the last spot in this tier's rankings. Honestly I couldn't really find anyone that I liked more than Stenhouse. When considering all the factor, other than Biffle. Personally I don't trust Biffle one bit yet. Stenhouse on the other hand have gain my trust. Stenhouse have finishes of 10th, 12th and 5th on the intermediate racetracks this season. He should contend for another top 15 finish on Saturday night. He wasn't great in final practice, but he was still decent. I think Stenhouse will get better as the race goes on. So no worries. He posted the 13th-best ten lap average and will roll off from the 5th starting position. Stenhouse likely outcome is somewhere inside the top 15. Stenhouse loves sliding around like a dirt racer, and I think we will see plenty of that on Saturday night.
Rankings: 1) Edwards 2) Truex 3) Dillon 4) Kahne 5) Stenhouse 6) Newman 7) Larson 8) Menard 9) JMac 10) Almirola
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott is great at managing tires, so I am willing to bet he will be one of those drivers up at the front all day long. Elliott looked really good in both practices this weekend and will roll from the 4th position. He was top 10 good at both Atlanta and Vegas. Then he took the next step by running top 5 at Cali. This kid is getting closer to victory lane and we aren't even halfway through the season. Heck, we aren't even a quarter of a way through the season (not until like Charlotte). Elliott is a top 15 driver with top 10 upside. Okay that probably bullshit right here. He will probably more than likely be a top 10 driver with top 5 upside. But I am keeping my standard low for him though.
2. Ryan Blaney - Blaney haven't looked quite as good as Chase Elliott have, but he will be a top 15 contender and probably find himself in a situation to snag a top 10 finish before the checkers wave. Blaney is probably going to get overshadow a lot this by Elliott on this type track, but mark my words he will have some very good runs. I think Texas will be one of them. Truthfully anything is a improvments from his results from last season.
3. Brian Vickers - Vickers round out my rankings in this tier of drivers. Vickers will start from the 12th position and should contend for another top 15 finish. I highly doubt he outruns Blaney or Elliott, but I do think he will finish in the 11th-20th place range though. Vickers looked good in practice, but I wouldn't say he is top 10 material though. I think Vickers will make a solid option overall. This is Vickers final known race for now, so it would be wise to get a start out of him, if you play Yahoo Fantasy Racing. I think Vickers finishing just outside of the top 12 when the checkers waves on Saturday night.
My Rankings: 1) Elliott 2) Blaney 3) Vickers 4) Dillon
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Update -
A:
1. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson is one of the heavy favorites headed into Saturday night's race. He looked very good in final practice overall. I thought he had a pretty good car overall and personally I think he will be even better in the race. He posted the 8th-best ten lap average in final practice and have won 5 of the past 7 Texas. Combine that with his 3 Top 3 finishes this season on the intermediate racetrack, and you get a dangerous fantasy option. Johnson is a well-round option this weekend. Strong track history, momentum, top 10 starting position and solid practices. He nails every aspect that we are looking for. I cannot find a legit reason to recommend leaving him off your lineup. Plain and simple, I think Johnson is the man to beat headed into the race and will least come away with a top 5 finish.
2. Kevin Harvick - You know after qualifying 21st on Friday, I was wondering what the heck was up with Kevin Harvick. However then I started to watch his lap times in final practice and I just started to laugh. His team said the 4 car didn't have much tire wear and that is something I love, since we see a lot of tire wear at Texas. Lap times at Texas, usually just drop off pretty fast. If you tracked lap times in final practice, then you probably saw that. Harvick posted the 4th-best ten lap average in final practice and should be a heavy contender for the win come Saturday night. He also dominated the Atlanta race earlier this season, which is the most similar racetrack to Texas. Don't be shocked, if Harvick goes out and dominate Texas like that. He have a car that is capable of that.
3. Joey Logano - Logano starts from the 2nd position and should be in contention for another top 5 finish on Saturday night. I don't think he will win, but he should make a very good fantasy option though. Logano will start from the 2nd starting position. Both of the Penske cars seems to be pretty good overall. Logano also have a couple other things going for him as well. 1) Solid track history - 3 top 5 finishes over his past 4 Texas races. 2) He been fast all season on the intermediate racetracks. He was running close to the top 5 at Atlanta, before getting a penalty. Headed into the race, I view him a top 5 guy. Most likely, I would say his range is from 3rd to 6th in terms of finish potential.
4. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski have always been very good at Texas. He should have had this race won last fall, if it wasn't for a late pass by Jimmie Johnson. Regardless, it seems that the 2 team have got another fast car for Keselowski. He was pretty good on the long runs in final practice and posted the 3rd-best ten lap average. Keselowski also have been very consistent at 1.5 milers. He swept the top 10 last season on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks and guess what, he have done the same thing this season. He's a machine is a pretty much lock for a top 10 finish in my opinion. Also he have a pretty stout track record at Texas. As I mention, he almost won this race last fall and should have a shot at another victory come Saturday night. Much like teammate Logano, I view him as a 3rd-6th place guy. That's the likely finish range for him.
5. Kyle Busch - Honestly I could have ranked Busch ahead of both Logano and Keselowski. However I decided to use starting positions as a tie breaker (no real reason), since they are all pretty close to each other when taking everything into consideration. I don't think Busch have a dominating car this weekend, but I do think he have a good car overall. I didn't really pay much attention to Busch or his lap times when I was track laps. I did track a few of his race runs in final practice and his laps were good to me. His lap times fall off little more than I would like. However wasn't really falling-off at a alarming rate, which is usually a good sign at Texas. Also Busch have 5 Top 5 finishes in 6 races this season, so it hard seeing him not contending for another top 5 finish. I think he finishes once again inside the top 5, unless something goes wrong like it did at ACS a few weeks ago.
Rankings: 1) Johnson 2) Harvick 3) Logano 4) Keselowski 5) Busch 6) Dale Jr 7) Kenseth 8) Hamlin 9) Kurt Busch
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Edwards have the best car in this tier and arguably have a top 3 car headed into the race. He have a fast car and should contend for least a top 5 finish. He will start from the pole and could very well win Saturday night's race. Personally I think he's a few adjustments away from being race winning potential on Saturday. Edwards not only have a fast car for the race, but he have ran very well this season on the intermediate racetracks. Edwards also is a former race winner at Texas and knows how to get around this place pretty well. I think Edwards is the 3rd favorite behind Johnson and Harvick. I wouldn't be shocked if Edwards won at Texas, but I think he will come up just short though.
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex started off final practice with a pair of impressive 8-lap runs and showed some really good speed. Then he posted a lengthy long run towards end of final practice and seems to have very good long run speed. Truex posted the 5th-best ten lap average and is easily a top 5 driver based on speed headed into the race. However I don't really trust him though. His last top 10 finish was all the way back at the Daytona 500. But don't be shocked, if Truex goes out and finishes up at the front. He had the 2nd-best car at Atlanta earlier this season and it seems like he have another fast piece this weekend. The big question is: Can Truex finish races? I don't know. He haven't yet, but sooner or later he will catch a break though. I view him as a top 10 guy headed into the race, when taking everything into consideration.
3. Austin Dillon - Dillon one of the drivers who stood out to me overall. I thought he was one of the better drivers in final practice. I didn't think he fell off too much compared to the competition. I will be honest, I focused on him more than most other drivers. And his lap times overall were consistency good. I tracked about 15-lap run in middle of the session and he was still running in the 29.90s by end of that race run. That's pretty darn good right there. He also started off final practice with a strong ten lap run that resulted in the best-ten lap average of the practice session. Dillon is very capable of knocking off another top 10 finish on Saturday night. He have ran very well early in the season and I think he keep up his strong start this season. Dillon is a driver to watch out for!
4. Kasey Kahne - I still don't trust Kasey Kahne, but he have some speed in that car. I highly doubts he finishes up inside the top 10, but I definitely could see him finishing somewhere inside the top 15. Honestly that all you can ask for him. He posted the 2nd-best ten lap average in final practice and the 10th-fastest single lap overall. Not to mention, Kahne have knocked off 4 straight top 11 in Spring Texas races. I am not super excited about Kahne chances to keep that streak alive though. I view him as a 12th-17th place guy really. But he's in good equipment, so I guess it wouldn't be too much of stench for him to sneak out with a top 10 finish though.
5. Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Stenhouse takes the last spot in this tier's rankings. Honestly I couldn't really find anyone that I liked more than Stenhouse. When considering all the factor, other than Biffle. Personally I don't trust Biffle one bit yet. Stenhouse on the other hand have gain my trust. Stenhouse have finishes of 10th, 12th and 5th on the intermediate racetracks this season. He should contend for another top 15 finish on Saturday night. He wasn't great in final practice, but he was still decent. I think Stenhouse will get better as the race goes on. So no worries. He posted the 13th-best ten lap average and will roll off from the 5th starting position. Stenhouse likely outcome is somewhere inside the top 15. Stenhouse loves sliding around like a dirt racer, and I think we will see plenty of that on Saturday night.
Rankings: 1) Edwards 2) Truex 3) Dillon 4) Kahne 5) Stenhouse 6) Newman 7) Larson 8) Menard 9) JMac 10) Almirola
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott is great at managing tires, so I am willing to bet he will be one of those drivers up at the front all day long. Elliott looked really good in both practices this weekend and will roll from the 4th position. He was top 10 good at both Atlanta and Vegas. Then he took the next step by running top 5 at Cali. This kid is getting closer to victory lane and we aren't even halfway through the season. Heck, we aren't even a quarter of a way through the season (not until like Charlotte). Elliott is a top 15 driver with top 10 upside. Okay that probably bullshit right here. He will probably more than likely be a top 10 driver with top 5 upside. But I am keeping my standard low for him though.
2. Ryan Blaney - Blaney haven't looked quite as good as Chase Elliott have, but he will be a top 15 contender and probably find himself in a situation to snag a top 10 finish before the checkers wave. Blaney is probably going to get overshadow a lot this by Elliott on this type track, but mark my words he will have some very good runs. I think Texas will be one of them. Truthfully anything is a improvments from his results from last season.
3. Brian Vickers - Vickers round out my rankings in this tier of drivers. Vickers will start from the 12th position and should contend for another top 15 finish. I highly doubt he outruns Blaney or Elliott, but I do think he will finish in the 11th-20th place range though. Vickers looked good in practice, but I wouldn't say he is top 10 material though. I think Vickers will make a solid option overall. This is Vickers final known race for now, so it would be wise to get a start out of him, if you play Yahoo Fantasy Racing. I think Vickers finishing just outside of the top 12 when the checkers waves on Saturday night.
My Rankings: 1) Elliott 2) Blaney 3) Vickers 4) Dillon
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
