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Fantasy Nascar Update -
**My rankings are determined based on the following: track history, practice results, importance of track position/starting position, momentum and personal opinions
A:
1. Jimmie Johnson - Jimmie Johnson looked very good throughout final practice on Saturday and was consistently among the fastest cars. When compared to the other fast cars, I would say he was a top 5 guy. Johnson also have had a lot of success here over the years, especially in the daytime. Johnson have already won twice this season and I wouldn't be surprised if he added another win to his total. The 48 team seems pretty happy with what they got after final practice and if history is the judge, then expect the 48 car to be one of the cars to beat on Sunday.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Kevin Harvick - Harvick have a very strong car this weekend. The 4 will start from the pole and he definitely have the speed to win it on Sunday. I thought he was one of the better cars on the long run, but I don't think he ever posted a lengthy 25 or 30 lap run in practice though. Least not any of the runs I tracked from him. So it kind of hard to get a accurate read on him, but his lap times were among the strongest throughout that final practice I tracked. Even better? The last three winners have won from a top 3 starting position at Richmond. In fact, 80% of the winners at Richmond have came from a top 10 starting positon.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Kyle Busch - Kyle have a very fast car this weekend and will definitely be a heavy contender on Sunday. I thought he a easy top 5 guy based on the lap times, he lay down in that final practice. I missed his final run at the end, but I am sure it was pretty good. I also really like Kyle because of his track record here. Busch is machine at Richmond. He holds an 7.1 average finish at Richmond. Only once have he finished worse than 20th since making his debut over a decade ago now. He have ruled over Richmond for a long time and that won't change this weekend. Last week, he never was able to make it to the lead. But I think things will be difference this time around.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Joey Logano - I didn't pay a lot of attention to Logano, I only tracked a few of his runs and they weren't super long runs. But I did glance over at his lap times every now then while tracking other top drivers. And he was in the ballpark with his lap times overall. In 2016, the 22 car never seems to post the fastest laps in practice, but it always seems like he is good to go for the race though. I think that the case once again this weekend. He didn't light up the track with impressive lap times like other cars did, but he will be a top 5 driver when it counts the most. I have high hopes for the 22 car for Sunday. I think he will have a shot at lead some laps early on, if he can get in front of Harvick. After awhile I expect him to fall back to latter part of the top 5 and settle in. I have him across the line in 4th-7th place range on Sunday!
My Overall Ranking: 5th
5. Matt Kenseth - Matt Kenseth will roll off from the 13th starting position and will try to turn his luck around for a change this season. Kenseth looked pretty good in practice and showed some promising speed throughout the session. However while he had top 5 potential (or least very close to it), I don't really trust him though. Kenseth have only one good finish this season and that was at Phoenix in March. We are quickly approaching May and Kenseth have had something go wrong every week. Last week, I thought it was worth to gamble on the 20 car because how fast he was. This week, I don't see that speed in him. So to me, his fantasy value decreases because of the risk/reward. I personally don't think the reward outweigh the risk for those that were seriously considering Kenseth as a off-sequence pick.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
B:
1. Carl Edwards - I was watching Edwards a lot in final practice on Saturday and comparing him to other top drivers in that session. Overall I thought he was about the 3rd or 4th best driver based on lap times and feed back. I personally don't think he will go out and dominate like we saw at Bristol. I also wouldn't be shocked, if Edwards went out and won back-to-back wins. However I think that is unrealistic though. Edwards in my opinion is a top 5 driver headed into the race and should finish somewhere around 3th-6th place range when the checkers wave. If there is a reason I like him more than the other contenders, then it is because his momentum at the moment. Edwards is the hottest drivers in the series and have posted 6.8 average finish in his previous 6 races this season. Over the past 27 races? The series-best 8.5 average finish.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
2. Martin Truex Jr - I thought Truex had one of the best cars in final practice on Saturday and looked real strong throughout the session. I think Truex have the speed to win, he even posted the best-30 lap average in the session. I will admit I love a driver that displays that sort of speed. But I will also admit, I don't trust Truex at the moment. I have said this every week since Phoenix now and I am sure everyone is tired of me point this out. But Truex have only 1 Top 10 finish since Atlanta. And I will keep pointing out this stat, until Truex can start finishing out races. Truex is a top 10 driver because of his inconsistency. Based on speed alone, I think he has top 5 potential!
My Overall Ranking: 6th
3. Kasey Kahne - I will give some love to Kasey this week, as he have looked pretty good in final practice. I highly doubt he back up his practice effort come Sunday. However, I do like one thing about him this week that I haven't yet this season. He have some momentum going for him, with back-to-back top 10 efforts entering the weekend. There always that risk Kahne and the 5 team will fall behind with the car in the race. However I think it worth a gamble this week with him. Especially since he for the first time this season, he have some momentum. I think Kahne will finish somewhere between 8th-15th place range when the checkers wave on Sunday.
My Overall Ranking: 10th
4. Ryan Newman - After a rough start to the season, Ryan Newman and the 31 team have settled into a nice consistent pace. With 3 Top 14 finishes in his past 4 races, dating back to Cali in late March. So it been a nice little run for the 31 team, after starting the season with 2 finishes outside of the top 20 in first 4 races. I think Newman keeps things rolling this weekend at Richmond. He have looked pretty good overall. His lap times were pretty consistent. Like most weeks, he didn't post any blazing lap times in practice. But he will slowly make his way to the front as the race progresses. He is a safe bet for least a top 12 or top 14 finish in my opinion. I have him finishing in that area as well.
My Overall Ranking: 12th
5. AJ Dinger - The best sleeper in the field this week is the driver of the No.47 car in AJ Dinger. Dinger had his best race of the season at Martinsville, which wasn't too long ago. And the 47 car have shown speed on a weekly basis this season. This week was no difference and I wasn't expecting it to be. Dinger have ran very well here throughout his career as it have been pointed by several people already this week. Dinger looked fast in final practice and posted some really good lap times. Not only does he have a pretty solid car, but he also will roll off from the 10th starting position. Dinger also showed good long run speed and that is something we always looking for at Richmond!
My Overall Ranking: 13th
C:
1. Chase Elliott - I will be honest, I was expecting more in practice out of Chase Elliott. I mean, he been okay. Better than your average rookie at Richmond. But this was his best racetrack at the lower level and he finished 16th last season here in a cup car. I guess I was expecting him to show me more in practice. But I am sure he will be fine. In fact, I am still betting he finds a way to sneak away with a top 10 finish. Based on practice, I would say he is a middle-teen driver headed into the race.
My Overall Ranking: 18th
2. Ryan Blaney - I didn't really pay much attention to Ryan Blaney in practice, so I cannot really say too much about him overall. Least not about how good his car is or how he looked on the longer runs in practice. But based on what I know already, I would say he's top 20 matieral. That been the common case this season for Ryan Blaney. There been times where the No.21 driver have shown top 10 or top 15 potential. While I think he could have a shot at the top 15, I don't see him knocking off another top 10 finish. Expect Blaney likely ceciling to be somewhere around 12th or 13th. With realistic finishing position being somewhere between 15th-20th place.
My Overall Ranking: 20th
3. Brian Scott - Brian Scott is a nice sleeper for Sunday's race at Richmond. After Bristol, he tweeted: ''Tough day for the 44 @ShoreLodge team today. @BMSupdates has always been 1 of the toughest tracks for me. Now on 2 my favorite @RIRIndsider!'' He have had some of his best races in the lower series at Richmond, so it was obvious why he is excited about returning here. And so far this weekend, he haven't been too bad overall. He wasn't super impressive in final practice, but he was pretty good considering the equipment he is in. He posted the 25th-fastest single lap and 24th-best ten lap average. Like I said not great, but I think he can come away with least a top 25 or so finish. Will he steal a top 20 finish? Maybe. Maybe not. At this point, I think that is not ideal though.
My Overall Ranking: 25th
Grouping Tier Rankings:
A:
1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Kevin Harvick
3. Kyle Busch
4. Joey Logano
5. Matt Kenseth
6. Brad Keselowski
7. Denny Hamlin
8. Dale Jr
9. Kurt Busch
B:
1. Carl Edwards
2. Martin Truex Jr
3. Kasey Kahne
4. Ryan Newman
5. AJ Dinger
6. Paul Menard
7. Jamie Mac
8. Kyle Larson
9. Austin Dillon
C:
1. Chase Elliott
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Brian Scott
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Update -
**My rankings are determined based on the following: track history, practice results, importance of track position/starting position, momentum and personal opinions
A:
1. Jimmie Johnson - Jimmie Johnson looked very good throughout final practice on Saturday and was consistently among the fastest cars. When compared to the other fast cars, I would say he was a top 5 guy. Johnson also have had a lot of success here over the years, especially in the daytime. Johnson have already won twice this season and I wouldn't be surprised if he added another win to his total. The 48 team seems pretty happy with what they got after final practice and if history is the judge, then expect the 48 car to be one of the cars to beat on Sunday.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Kevin Harvick - Harvick have a very strong car this weekend. The 4 will start from the pole and he definitely have the speed to win it on Sunday. I thought he was one of the better cars on the long run, but I don't think he ever posted a lengthy 25 or 30 lap run in practice though. Least not any of the runs I tracked from him. So it kind of hard to get a accurate read on him, but his lap times were among the strongest throughout that final practice I tracked. Even better? The last three winners have won from a top 3 starting position at Richmond. In fact, 80% of the winners at Richmond have came from a top 10 starting positon.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Kyle Busch - Kyle have a very fast car this weekend and will definitely be a heavy contender on Sunday. I thought he a easy top 5 guy based on the lap times, he lay down in that final practice. I missed his final run at the end, but I am sure it was pretty good. I also really like Kyle because of his track record here. Busch is machine at Richmond. He holds an 7.1 average finish at Richmond. Only once have he finished worse than 20th since making his debut over a decade ago now. He have ruled over Richmond for a long time and that won't change this weekend. Last week, he never was able to make it to the lead. But I think things will be difference this time around.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Joey Logano - I didn't pay a lot of attention to Logano, I only tracked a few of his runs and they weren't super long runs. But I did glance over at his lap times every now then while tracking other top drivers. And he was in the ballpark with his lap times overall. In 2016, the 22 car never seems to post the fastest laps in practice, but it always seems like he is good to go for the race though. I think that the case once again this weekend. He didn't light up the track with impressive lap times like other cars did, but he will be a top 5 driver when it counts the most. I have high hopes for the 22 car for Sunday. I think he will have a shot at lead some laps early on, if he can get in front of Harvick. After awhile I expect him to fall back to latter part of the top 5 and settle in. I have him across the line in 4th-7th place range on Sunday!
My Overall Ranking: 5th
5. Matt Kenseth - Matt Kenseth will roll off from the 13th starting position and will try to turn his luck around for a change this season. Kenseth looked pretty good in practice and showed some promising speed throughout the session. However while he had top 5 potential (or least very close to it), I don't really trust him though. Kenseth have only one good finish this season and that was at Phoenix in March. We are quickly approaching May and Kenseth have had something go wrong every week. Last week, I thought it was worth to gamble on the 20 car because how fast he was. This week, I don't see that speed in him. So to me, his fantasy value decreases because of the risk/reward. I personally don't think the reward outweigh the risk for those that were seriously considering Kenseth as a off-sequence pick.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
B:
1. Carl Edwards - I was watching Edwards a lot in final practice on Saturday and comparing him to other top drivers in that session. Overall I thought he was about the 3rd or 4th best driver based on lap times and feed back. I personally don't think he will go out and dominate like we saw at Bristol. I also wouldn't be shocked, if Edwards went out and won back-to-back wins. However I think that is unrealistic though. Edwards in my opinion is a top 5 driver headed into the race and should finish somewhere around 3th-6th place range when the checkers wave. If there is a reason I like him more than the other contenders, then it is because his momentum at the moment. Edwards is the hottest drivers in the series and have posted 6.8 average finish in his previous 6 races this season. Over the past 27 races? The series-best 8.5 average finish.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
2. Martin Truex Jr - I thought Truex had one of the best cars in final practice on Saturday and looked real strong throughout the session. I think Truex have the speed to win, he even posted the best-30 lap average in the session. I will admit I love a driver that displays that sort of speed. But I will also admit, I don't trust Truex at the moment. I have said this every week since Phoenix now and I am sure everyone is tired of me point this out. But Truex have only 1 Top 10 finish since Atlanta. And I will keep pointing out this stat, until Truex can start finishing out races. Truex is a top 10 driver because of his inconsistency. Based on speed alone, I think he has top 5 potential!
My Overall Ranking: 6th
3. Kasey Kahne - I will give some love to Kasey this week, as he have looked pretty good in final practice. I highly doubt he back up his practice effort come Sunday. However, I do like one thing about him this week that I haven't yet this season. He have some momentum going for him, with back-to-back top 10 efforts entering the weekend. There always that risk Kahne and the 5 team will fall behind with the car in the race. However I think it worth a gamble this week with him. Especially since he for the first time this season, he have some momentum. I think Kahne will finish somewhere between 8th-15th place range when the checkers wave on Sunday.
My Overall Ranking: 10th
4. Ryan Newman - After a rough start to the season, Ryan Newman and the 31 team have settled into a nice consistent pace. With 3 Top 14 finishes in his past 4 races, dating back to Cali in late March. So it been a nice little run for the 31 team, after starting the season with 2 finishes outside of the top 20 in first 4 races. I think Newman keeps things rolling this weekend at Richmond. He have looked pretty good overall. His lap times were pretty consistent. Like most weeks, he didn't post any blazing lap times in practice. But he will slowly make his way to the front as the race progresses. He is a safe bet for least a top 12 or top 14 finish in my opinion. I have him finishing in that area as well.
My Overall Ranking: 12th
5. AJ Dinger - The best sleeper in the field this week is the driver of the No.47 car in AJ Dinger. Dinger had his best race of the season at Martinsville, which wasn't too long ago. And the 47 car have shown speed on a weekly basis this season. This week was no difference and I wasn't expecting it to be. Dinger have ran very well here throughout his career as it have been pointed by several people already this week. Dinger looked fast in final practice and posted some really good lap times. Not only does he have a pretty solid car, but he also will roll off from the 10th starting position. Dinger also showed good long run speed and that is something we always looking for at Richmond!
My Overall Ranking: 13th
C:
1. Chase Elliott - I will be honest, I was expecting more in practice out of Chase Elliott. I mean, he been okay. Better than your average rookie at Richmond. But this was his best racetrack at the lower level and he finished 16th last season here in a cup car. I guess I was expecting him to show me more in practice. But I am sure he will be fine. In fact, I am still betting he finds a way to sneak away with a top 10 finish. Based on practice, I would say he is a middle-teen driver headed into the race.
My Overall Ranking: 18th
2. Ryan Blaney - I didn't really pay much attention to Ryan Blaney in practice, so I cannot really say too much about him overall. Least not about how good his car is or how he looked on the longer runs in practice. But based on what I know already, I would say he's top 20 matieral. That been the common case this season for Ryan Blaney. There been times where the No.21 driver have shown top 10 or top 15 potential. While I think he could have a shot at the top 15, I don't see him knocking off another top 10 finish. Expect Blaney likely ceciling to be somewhere around 12th or 13th. With realistic finishing position being somewhere between 15th-20th place.
My Overall Ranking: 20th
3. Brian Scott - Brian Scott is a nice sleeper for Sunday's race at Richmond. After Bristol, he tweeted: ''Tough day for the 44 @ShoreLodge team today. @BMSupdates has always been 1 of the toughest tracks for me. Now on 2 my favorite @RIRIndsider!'' He have had some of his best races in the lower series at Richmond, so it was obvious why he is excited about returning here. And so far this weekend, he haven't been too bad overall. He wasn't super impressive in final practice, but he was pretty good considering the equipment he is in. He posted the 25th-fastest single lap and 24th-best ten lap average. Like I said not great, but I think he can come away with least a top 25 or so finish. Will he steal a top 20 finish? Maybe. Maybe not. At this point, I think that is not ideal though.
My Overall Ranking: 25th
Grouping Tier Rankings:
A:
1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Kevin Harvick
3. Kyle Busch
4. Joey Logano
5. Matt Kenseth
6. Brad Keselowski
7. Denny Hamlin
8. Dale Jr
9. Kurt Busch
B:
1. Carl Edwards
2. Martin Truex Jr
3. Kasey Kahne
4. Ryan Newman
5. AJ Dinger
6. Paul Menard
7. Jamie Mac
8. Kyle Larson
9. Austin Dillon
C:
1. Chase Elliott
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Brian Scott
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
