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Preview -
1-JMac: In 2016, Jamie Mac will be his best on the shorter flats track. He wasn't too good at the most recent shorter flat of Martinsville a few weeks ago. However I do think the 1 team will rebound nicely from that effort. JMac have been a consistent driver this season in the teens, even though he have recently been flirting with top 10 finishes from time to time through races. He been very good at Richmond in recent seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.5 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 100.6 driver rating. Among the shorter flats, he been at his best at Richmond. Over his past 5 starts here, he have either finished 4th or 13th. In fact, he have finished 3 of those 5 races in the 4th position. I highly doubt we see him back up last spring's performance. He agrubly had the 2nd-best racecar in that event. He actually drove around the 41 car on that really long run (Kurt Busch dominated the event). But he never seems to be as good on the short runs though. I think we will see an top 15 finish from the 1 car this Sunday. He is someone who I will have on my fantasy radar entering the weekend!
2-Brad Keselowski: Outside of the Vegas race, Keselowski haven't done too much to impress me honestly. Top 10 car each week, but rarely do we see him go up there and challenge for a top 5. More often than not, he seems to find a way into trouble as well. But he should be very good at Richmond. I consider this as one of his best racetracks on the schedule. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 7.5 average finish with 4.0 average running position and 122.7 driver rating. He dominated in the 2014 events at Richmond. Especially the summer race here in 2014. He led a staggering 383 laps of 400 laps. So basically everyone else led a combined 17 laps. Just ridiculous! Kevin Harvick cannot even do that at Phoenix. He wasn't quite as good last season though. He was top 5 strong in the spring race, but believe he had trouble getting up to speed on restarts. He had some sort of issues, I think he was down a cylinder. After a late caution, he pitted (for what crazy reason I don't know) and finished 17th. He was strong once again in the second race at Richmond. He was pretty good for that race, showed top 5 potential from time to time in the event. But he eventually finished 8th place. Keselowski is a top 10 driver entering the weekend for me. I'll watch him in practice, but I don't think we will see anything like he did in 2014.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon have had a couple of bad races lately and will look to get back on track at Richmond. Dillon started the 2016 season off pretty hot, but these past three of four races haven't been too kind to him. With 3 finishes of 20th or worse. Dillon need to get a solid result, but if recent results is any indication it could be a long weekend for the driver of the 3 car though. Over the past 4 races here at RIR, he have compiled 25.3 average finish with 21.8 average running position and 62.0 driver rating. He have finished 3 of those 4 races in 27th place. His career best finish thus far at RIR in his cup career is 20th place. Dillon is running better than he have the previous two seasons. However I am not very high on him at Richmond. I think he will be better at the intermediate and doesn't seems to be able to excel on the shorter racetracks as much.
4-Kevin Harvick: A lot of people weren't talking about Harvick much headed into the Bristol race (as I hinted to in my fantasy update on Saturday), and as we saw the driver of the 4 car was fast regardless. That will be no difference this week at Richmond. Plain and simple, Harvick is fast each and every week. Doesn't matter what type of track, he will be a heavy contender. I love him at Richmond and is easily a top 5 driver headed into the race imo. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.0 average finish with 5.8 average running position and 110.5 driver rating. Harvick always been a stud at Richmond. He so damn consistent too. Listen to this stat: 11 of the past 13 races at Richmond inside the top 12. In fact, Harvick is a three-time winner at RIR since the start of the 2006 season. He have compiled 2 Top 5 finishes in his past 3 races. Including an 2nd place run last spring. He's currently on a 7-race Top 14 finishes streak, including 3 Top 5 finishes in that span. Harvick is safe of an fantasy option as they come. He will likely start up front, lead laps and finish somewhere up inside the top 5. Sometimes I think Harvick get overlook at the shorter tracks, because people primary think he's a intermediate racetrack guy. I agree that true, but don't underestimate him on any given week.
5-Kasey Kahne: I been pretty tough on Kahne this season (he knows it just tough love), but he starting to put together that I can work with. KK have back-to-back top 8 finishes. Now I am not saying that is impressive or anything (for him it is, since he usually so inconsistent). I am not ready to trust him, but you can bet I have will have tabs on him for future races. Some nice tracks for him coming up. If he can show some consistency. He been good at Richmond, but that been pretty much it. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.8 average finish with 14.5 average running position and 85.2 driver rating. Since joining HMS (in 2012 - 8 races), Kahne have produced only two top 10 finishes. They were results of 5th and 6th (debut in spring 2012 and spring 2015). The positive of that? Both of them have came in the spring race. In fact, Kahne have finished 3 of the past 4 spring races (at Richmond) inside the top 14. I think it unrealistic for Kahne to finish inside the top 10 again though. Considering 5 of his past 7 Richmond races overall have ended in 12th-18th place. I think we will see an finish in the middle teen from the driver of the 5 car.
11-Denny Hamlin: JGR had a pretty tough day at the track over the weekend. Bristol wasn't very kind to 3 of the 4 JGR cars (despite being very fast), so Hamlin will look to rebound at one of his best tracks. Hamlin have been pretty inconsistent this season with his results. On a scarier note, it starting to seems like he is starting to involve some consistent. However it the not kind of consistency you want as a fantasy player though. With 4 of the past 6 races ended 16th or worse, dating back to Atlanta in late February. However he can rebound in a huge way at Richmond though. This have been a very good racetrack for him over the years. But his numbers lately have been pretty bad overall. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 17.8 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 86.4 driver rating. He have finished 21st or worse in 3 of those 4 races. His lone top 20 finish? 6th. When did that come? In his most recent race at Richmond. While I don't trust Hamlin at all right now, I do see why he could be a great fantasy option. Considering how much success he have found here. But for now, I consider him nothing more than a top 10 driver!
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse is off to a great start this season with 5 Top 16 finishes in his past 7 races (dating back to Atlanta). I feel like Ricky is only going to get better as the season goes on. He may not be the best choice for Richmond, but he will be great options for some upcoming races. So I will be keeping my eye on him this weekend at Richmond, hopefully he can keep the momentum rolling. He haven't been too good at Richmond. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 27.0 average finish with 26.3 average running position and 56.2 driver rating. Ricky have managed 3 Top 16 finishes in 6 starts at Richmond. Including an 16th place run last fall in the final race of the regular season. Last summer, he started 19th, finished 16th and posted 19.0 average running position with 69.9 driver rating. He spent almost half of the race (46%) inside the top 15. So not like he lucked into that 16th place finish last fall. Stenhouse is also running a lot better this season than he was running last season. So I could see another top 15 finish out of Stenhouse this week. I would preferably rather use him on the intermediate racetracks (seems like his bread and butter), but I like him this week plenty. Especially if you are looking for a solid teen finish.
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch had a very tough day at Bristol on Sunday, but he should easily rebound at another great racetrack for him. Richmond have always been a Kyle Busch track and that haven't change. And with the way he been running this season, I highly doubt that changes come Sunday afternoon. Kyle have won here 4 times since start of the 2009 season. Kyle always been great at Richmond. Over the past 3 races here (he missed the 2015 spring event), he have compiled 6.3 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 101.6 driver rating. Busch have finished 2 of his past 3 races at RIR inside the top 3. He finished 2nd here last fall. Nobody had anything at all for Matt Kenseth (he was completely dominated), but Kyle was one of the few who led any laps. He actually was one of the few could even stay with the 20 car for any length of time. Busch have 14 Top 5 finishes in 21 career starts for an average finish of 7.1.
19-Carl Edwards: Usually when a driver consistently runs up front, they will eventually find victory lane. I don't think anything would have prevented Carl Edwards from winning at Bristol on Sunday. He just been in the zone the past two cup races and it been fun to watch. He is very good at Richmond as well. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.3 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 80.4 driver rating. His recent races (past 3 races) haven't resulted in a top 10 finish. With his best finish ending in 11th place last fall's event. However prior to that, he have finished 8 of 9 inside the top 9 positions. Also Edwards is running much better than he was last season. The 19 team is on it this season and they very well could make it back-to-back wins. Right now, there is no driver in the series that is hotter than Carl Edwards. He is a top 5 driver headed into the weekend.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth have had nothing go right for him this season. The 20 car arguably had the car to beat early on. While leading 140 of the first 200 or so laps at Bristol. Then everything went south on him. He found the wall twice after, before having to go behind the wall for repairs. That pretty much sums up Kenseth's season. In fact, he have led in 7 of 8 races this season. Sooner or later, Kenseth will turn it around. Question is will it be at Richmond? Maybe or maybe not. He been pretty good here in the past though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.5 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 108.0 driver ratingI . He was completely dominated in last fall's race, while leading a race-high 352 laps from the 2nd starting position. Kenseth is in my opinion one of the best kept secrets at Richmond in recent years. Why? He have finished 7 of the past 8 races at RIR in the top 11. 6 of the past 7 overall inside the top 7. When we come to RIR, people just don't seem to talk about him all too much. I could see Kenseth turning it around this weekend and winning. Honestly I think JGR will be very motivated to get Kenseth in victory lane very soon
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney is having a nice rookie season for the Wood bros, but he have struggled to finish well on tracks with a lot of tire wear. At Richmond, we tend to see a lot of tire wear as well. There isn't really anything to judge Blaney on, other than the data we have already gather this season or data from the lower series. Since he haven't made any cup series starts at RIR. But I would say he's a top 20 driver headed into the weekend. He will probably show top 15 potential in practice. For now, I am going to play the wait and see game with Blaney before making any more comments on him.
22-Joey Logano: Logano have put together back-to-back top 10 finishes this season, despite having to battle back from 2 laps down at Bristol. He now looks towards another great racetrack at Richmond. He been very good here so far since joining Penske. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 3.8 average finish with 5.0 average running position and 116.8 driver rating. He have finish 5 of his past 6 races inside the top 6. He leads the series with 5 Top 10 finishes since start of the 2013 season at RIR. Not only that, but he swept the poles in last season's races. Which led to a pair of top 5 finishes. Logano haven't been great this season when it came to taking strong starting positions and turning them into strong performances. But that 22 team always seems to be in contention when it matters most. They might not always come away with top 5 finishes, but hard to deny they usually hover around that top 5 or top 10 more times than not. I think Penske is still trying to improve on their race setups, but he easily a top 5 to top 10 driver headed into the weekend.
24-Chase Elliott: The most impressive thing about Chase (in my opinion) is how he can managed tires so well at such a young age. It so impressive to watch him just manage how tires like he does. That going to help him a lot this week. We usually get least one 100-lap green flag run (we don't see a lot of cautions at Richmond) and when that happens watch that 24 car just rise to the top. Chase is just a natural talent who just seems to be contending for top 10 finishes with ease. These last two weeks, he have flirted with wins. I been very impressed by him! On top of all that, I consider this as one of Chase's best NXS racetracks. Remember he was pretty good in his 2nd career cup start last April at RIR. He ran around the top 15 most of the day. Elliott is legitimately a top 10 driver headed into the weekend.
27-Paul Menard: Menard have been off this season and Bristol really wasn't much better. Sure he finished inside the top 15 and somewhat contended in the top 15 for most of the day. However it seems like there something missing with that raceteam. In years past, Menard could go out there and sneak out top 10 or top 12 finishes. This year it like their ceiling is pretty much 15th place. Outside of Martinsville (8th place), his best finish this season have been 15th (3 times - Cali, Vegas and Bristol). Richmond will not get any easier for the 27 team, as this have been a quality short-flat track for him. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 20.8 average finish with 21.0 average running position and 65.6 driver rating. He have struggled at RIR since joining RCR. In 10 races in the 27 car, he have only managed 4 Top 15 finishes. 3 of those 4 races have ended in either 13th or 15th. His other finish was 5th back in 2013. That was by miles his best race at RIR. Outside of that race, he have not posted a driver rating above 75.5.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch seems to be having a off-season in 2016. He haven't been too bad, but he haven't contended for top 5 finishes on a regular basis. He always seems to be top 10 or top 15 quality, but doesn't go up there and contend for top 5 finishes like many of us were expecting him to. Richmond have been a solid track for him over the recent seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 103.4 driver rating. He won last spring event. He not only won, but he dominated the event with 293 laps led from the 3rd starting position. He have finished the past 4 of 6 races inside the top 9. Busch should be top 10 good once again this weekend, but I highly doubt we see him live up to his performance from last season's event.
42-Kyle Larson: For a long time there, Jamie Mac had the case of the bad luck. Then fast forward to start of the 2015 season and teammate Kyle Larson took the torch. I thought he was capable of going to victory lane at Bristol, until his trackbar broke. On the plus side, I think a trend is starting to develop for Larson. His best two cup cars this season have been on short tracks. Richmond is less than one-mile long. Richmond isn't comparable to any other track, but I don't think it a bad idea to keep him on your fantasy radar though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 12.8 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 85.1 driver rating. Larson haven't posted a top 10 finish at Richmond yet, but I think that will change very soon. Not to mention, his worst career finish is 16th place. So not like he have had any terrible races here. His best three races at RIR have ended in 11th or 12th. His numbers been solid in that span of races, too. He have compiled 3 starts, 11.7 average finish, 11.0 average running position and 91.4 driver rating.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is having a nice season so far, but is coming off one of his races of year though. He should rebound nicely at Richmond though. Johnson have been pretty good at Richmond for awhile now, but just doesn't talked about too much. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 97.7 driver rating. Overall 10 of his past 13 races have ended in 12th or better. Including 3 straight top 9 finishes. Johnson is a 3-time winner at Richmond. He won 3 of 4 races in the 2007 and 2008 seasons. Only two top 5 finishes since though. Which is probably a big reason why, he doesn't typically get mentioned when we talk about the favorites here.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex is having a pretty rocky season so far. He started off the season with a 2nd place finish at Datyona and only have managed one other top 10 finish since then (Texas). Every week, it seems like the 78 team is finding ways to let quality top 5 or top 10 finishes slip away. That the story of Truex's career though. Back in his MWR and DEI days, that was basically his calling card. Run up front, find a way to get screwed over. Good to know things haven't changed. I am not very high on Truex at the moment. It tough to like him very much, when he constantly finishing outside of the top 10. He had very little value, when he posts finishes like that. He also have struggled to get good finishes at Richmond in his career. With his only career top 5 finish coming back when he was in the #1 car (with DEI) in 2008. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 19.3 average finish with 20.3 average running position and 75.2 driver rating. He been better than his numbers indicates though. He have posted 3 Top 10 finishes over his previous 5 starts at this track. He had his 2nd best race ever at Richmond last spring and was a legit top 10 contender for the event. Headed into the weekend, Truex is nothing more than a top 15 driver to me. Mainly because he cannot finish a race inside the top 10 to save his life at the moment!
88-Dale Jr: I am not sure what the hell happened to Dale Jr at start of the Bristol race (I didn't get around to finding out), but I thought he was toasted at first though. I will give him credit though. He fought back and battled it out for a top 5 finish. That 88 team is impressive and Dale Jr is becoming more and more of a threat. The 88 team will look to bulid on their already strong start to the season. Dale haven't gone to victory lane yet this season, but he have some great tracks coming up though. Starting this week actually. He been good at Richmond, but not great. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 9.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 95.3 driver rating. Solid all-around numbers for the driver of the 88 car. Dale Jr have posted 8 straight Top 14 finishes at Richmond and will more than likely make it 9 straight come Sunday. I think he is a top 10 driver headed into the weekend!
**All Stats are from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com and DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Preview -
1-JMac: In 2016, Jamie Mac will be his best on the shorter flats track. He wasn't too good at the most recent shorter flat of Martinsville a few weeks ago. However I do think the 1 team will rebound nicely from that effort. JMac have been a consistent driver this season in the teens, even though he have recently been flirting with top 10 finishes from time to time through races. He been very good at Richmond in recent seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.5 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 100.6 driver rating. Among the shorter flats, he been at his best at Richmond. Over his past 5 starts here, he have either finished 4th or 13th. In fact, he have finished 3 of those 5 races in the 4th position. I highly doubt we see him back up last spring's performance. He agrubly had the 2nd-best racecar in that event. He actually drove around the 41 car on that really long run (Kurt Busch dominated the event). But he never seems to be as good on the short runs though. I think we will see an top 15 finish from the 1 car this Sunday. He is someone who I will have on my fantasy radar entering the weekend!
2-Brad Keselowski: Outside of the Vegas race, Keselowski haven't done too much to impress me honestly. Top 10 car each week, but rarely do we see him go up there and challenge for a top 5. More often than not, he seems to find a way into trouble as well. But he should be very good at Richmond. I consider this as one of his best racetracks on the schedule. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 7.5 average finish with 4.0 average running position and 122.7 driver rating. He dominated in the 2014 events at Richmond. Especially the summer race here in 2014. He led a staggering 383 laps of 400 laps. So basically everyone else led a combined 17 laps. Just ridiculous! Kevin Harvick cannot even do that at Phoenix. He wasn't quite as good last season though. He was top 5 strong in the spring race, but believe he had trouble getting up to speed on restarts. He had some sort of issues, I think he was down a cylinder. After a late caution, he pitted (for what crazy reason I don't know) and finished 17th. He was strong once again in the second race at Richmond. He was pretty good for that race, showed top 5 potential from time to time in the event. But he eventually finished 8th place. Keselowski is a top 10 driver entering the weekend for me. I'll watch him in practice, but I don't think we will see anything like he did in 2014.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon have had a couple of bad races lately and will look to get back on track at Richmond. Dillon started the 2016 season off pretty hot, but these past three of four races haven't been too kind to him. With 3 finishes of 20th or worse. Dillon need to get a solid result, but if recent results is any indication it could be a long weekend for the driver of the 3 car though. Over the past 4 races here at RIR, he have compiled 25.3 average finish with 21.8 average running position and 62.0 driver rating. He have finished 3 of those 4 races in 27th place. His career best finish thus far at RIR in his cup career is 20th place. Dillon is running better than he have the previous two seasons. However I am not very high on him at Richmond. I think he will be better at the intermediate and doesn't seems to be able to excel on the shorter racetracks as much.
4-Kevin Harvick: A lot of people weren't talking about Harvick much headed into the Bristol race (as I hinted to in my fantasy update on Saturday), and as we saw the driver of the 4 car was fast regardless. That will be no difference this week at Richmond. Plain and simple, Harvick is fast each and every week. Doesn't matter what type of track, he will be a heavy contender. I love him at Richmond and is easily a top 5 driver headed into the race imo. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.0 average finish with 5.8 average running position and 110.5 driver rating. Harvick always been a stud at Richmond. He so damn consistent too. Listen to this stat: 11 of the past 13 races at Richmond inside the top 12. In fact, Harvick is a three-time winner at RIR since the start of the 2006 season. He have compiled 2 Top 5 finishes in his past 3 races. Including an 2nd place run last spring. He's currently on a 7-race Top 14 finishes streak, including 3 Top 5 finishes in that span. Harvick is safe of an fantasy option as they come. He will likely start up front, lead laps and finish somewhere up inside the top 5. Sometimes I think Harvick get overlook at the shorter tracks, because people primary think he's a intermediate racetrack guy. I agree that true, but don't underestimate him on any given week.
5-Kasey Kahne: I been pretty tough on Kahne this season (he knows it just tough love), but he starting to put together that I can work with. KK have back-to-back top 8 finishes. Now I am not saying that is impressive or anything (for him it is, since he usually so inconsistent). I am not ready to trust him, but you can bet I have will have tabs on him for future races. Some nice tracks for him coming up. If he can show some consistency. He been good at Richmond, but that been pretty much it. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.8 average finish with 14.5 average running position and 85.2 driver rating. Since joining HMS (in 2012 - 8 races), Kahne have produced only two top 10 finishes. They were results of 5th and 6th (debut in spring 2012 and spring 2015). The positive of that? Both of them have came in the spring race. In fact, Kahne have finished 3 of the past 4 spring races (at Richmond) inside the top 14. I think it unrealistic for Kahne to finish inside the top 10 again though. Considering 5 of his past 7 Richmond races overall have ended in 12th-18th place. I think we will see an finish in the middle teen from the driver of the 5 car.
11-Denny Hamlin: JGR had a pretty tough day at the track over the weekend. Bristol wasn't very kind to 3 of the 4 JGR cars (despite being very fast), so Hamlin will look to rebound at one of his best tracks. Hamlin have been pretty inconsistent this season with his results. On a scarier note, it starting to seems like he is starting to involve some consistent. However it the not kind of consistency you want as a fantasy player though. With 4 of the past 6 races ended 16th or worse, dating back to Atlanta in late February. However he can rebound in a huge way at Richmond though. This have been a very good racetrack for him over the years. But his numbers lately have been pretty bad overall. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 17.8 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 86.4 driver rating. He have finished 21st or worse in 3 of those 4 races. His lone top 20 finish? 6th. When did that come? In his most recent race at Richmond. While I don't trust Hamlin at all right now, I do see why he could be a great fantasy option. Considering how much success he have found here. But for now, I consider him nothing more than a top 10 driver!
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse is off to a great start this season with 5 Top 16 finishes in his past 7 races (dating back to Atlanta). I feel like Ricky is only going to get better as the season goes on. He may not be the best choice for Richmond, but he will be great options for some upcoming races. So I will be keeping my eye on him this weekend at Richmond, hopefully he can keep the momentum rolling. He haven't been too good at Richmond. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 27.0 average finish with 26.3 average running position and 56.2 driver rating. Ricky have managed 3 Top 16 finishes in 6 starts at Richmond. Including an 16th place run last fall in the final race of the regular season. Last summer, he started 19th, finished 16th and posted 19.0 average running position with 69.9 driver rating. He spent almost half of the race (46%) inside the top 15. So not like he lucked into that 16th place finish last fall. Stenhouse is also running a lot better this season than he was running last season. So I could see another top 15 finish out of Stenhouse this week. I would preferably rather use him on the intermediate racetracks (seems like his bread and butter), but I like him this week plenty. Especially if you are looking for a solid teen finish.
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch had a very tough day at Bristol on Sunday, but he should easily rebound at another great racetrack for him. Richmond have always been a Kyle Busch track and that haven't change. And with the way he been running this season, I highly doubt that changes come Sunday afternoon. Kyle have won here 4 times since start of the 2009 season. Kyle always been great at Richmond. Over the past 3 races here (he missed the 2015 spring event), he have compiled 6.3 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 101.6 driver rating. Busch have finished 2 of his past 3 races at RIR inside the top 3. He finished 2nd here last fall. Nobody had anything at all for Matt Kenseth (he was completely dominated), but Kyle was one of the few who led any laps. He actually was one of the few could even stay with the 20 car for any length of time. Busch have 14 Top 5 finishes in 21 career starts for an average finish of 7.1.
19-Carl Edwards: Usually when a driver consistently runs up front, they will eventually find victory lane. I don't think anything would have prevented Carl Edwards from winning at Bristol on Sunday. He just been in the zone the past two cup races and it been fun to watch. He is very good at Richmond as well. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.3 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 80.4 driver rating. His recent races (past 3 races) haven't resulted in a top 10 finish. With his best finish ending in 11th place last fall's event. However prior to that, he have finished 8 of 9 inside the top 9 positions. Also Edwards is running much better than he was last season. The 19 team is on it this season and they very well could make it back-to-back wins. Right now, there is no driver in the series that is hotter than Carl Edwards. He is a top 5 driver headed into the weekend.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth have had nothing go right for him this season. The 20 car arguably had the car to beat early on. While leading 140 of the first 200 or so laps at Bristol. Then everything went south on him. He found the wall twice after, before having to go behind the wall for repairs. That pretty much sums up Kenseth's season. In fact, he have led in 7 of 8 races this season. Sooner or later, Kenseth will turn it around. Question is will it be at Richmond? Maybe or maybe not. He been pretty good here in the past though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.5 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 108.0 driver ratingI . He was completely dominated in last fall's race, while leading a race-high 352 laps from the 2nd starting position. Kenseth is in my opinion one of the best kept secrets at Richmond in recent years. Why? He have finished 7 of the past 8 races at RIR in the top 11. 6 of the past 7 overall inside the top 7. When we come to RIR, people just don't seem to talk about him all too much. I could see Kenseth turning it around this weekend and winning. Honestly I think JGR will be very motivated to get Kenseth in victory lane very soon
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney is having a nice rookie season for the Wood bros, but he have struggled to finish well on tracks with a lot of tire wear. At Richmond, we tend to see a lot of tire wear as well. There isn't really anything to judge Blaney on, other than the data we have already gather this season or data from the lower series. Since he haven't made any cup series starts at RIR. But I would say he's a top 20 driver headed into the weekend. He will probably show top 15 potential in practice. For now, I am going to play the wait and see game with Blaney before making any more comments on him.
22-Joey Logano: Logano have put together back-to-back top 10 finishes this season, despite having to battle back from 2 laps down at Bristol. He now looks towards another great racetrack at Richmond. He been very good here so far since joining Penske. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 3.8 average finish with 5.0 average running position and 116.8 driver rating. He have finish 5 of his past 6 races inside the top 6. He leads the series with 5 Top 10 finishes since start of the 2013 season at RIR. Not only that, but he swept the poles in last season's races. Which led to a pair of top 5 finishes. Logano haven't been great this season when it came to taking strong starting positions and turning them into strong performances. But that 22 team always seems to be in contention when it matters most. They might not always come away with top 5 finishes, but hard to deny they usually hover around that top 5 or top 10 more times than not. I think Penske is still trying to improve on their race setups, but he easily a top 5 to top 10 driver headed into the weekend.
24-Chase Elliott: The most impressive thing about Chase (in my opinion) is how he can managed tires so well at such a young age. It so impressive to watch him just manage how tires like he does. That going to help him a lot this week. We usually get least one 100-lap green flag run (we don't see a lot of cautions at Richmond) and when that happens watch that 24 car just rise to the top. Chase is just a natural talent who just seems to be contending for top 10 finishes with ease. These last two weeks, he have flirted with wins. I been very impressed by him! On top of all that, I consider this as one of Chase's best NXS racetracks. Remember he was pretty good in his 2nd career cup start last April at RIR. He ran around the top 15 most of the day. Elliott is legitimately a top 10 driver headed into the weekend.
27-Paul Menard: Menard have been off this season and Bristol really wasn't much better. Sure he finished inside the top 15 and somewhat contended in the top 15 for most of the day. However it seems like there something missing with that raceteam. In years past, Menard could go out there and sneak out top 10 or top 12 finishes. This year it like their ceiling is pretty much 15th place. Outside of Martinsville (8th place), his best finish this season have been 15th (3 times - Cali, Vegas and Bristol). Richmond will not get any easier for the 27 team, as this have been a quality short-flat track for him. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 20.8 average finish with 21.0 average running position and 65.6 driver rating. He have struggled at RIR since joining RCR. In 10 races in the 27 car, he have only managed 4 Top 15 finishes. 3 of those 4 races have ended in either 13th or 15th. His other finish was 5th back in 2013. That was by miles his best race at RIR. Outside of that race, he have not posted a driver rating above 75.5.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch seems to be having a off-season in 2016. He haven't been too bad, but he haven't contended for top 5 finishes on a regular basis. He always seems to be top 10 or top 15 quality, but doesn't go up there and contend for top 5 finishes like many of us were expecting him to. Richmond have been a solid track for him over the recent seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 103.4 driver rating. He won last spring event. He not only won, but he dominated the event with 293 laps led from the 3rd starting position. He have finished the past 4 of 6 races inside the top 9. Busch should be top 10 good once again this weekend, but I highly doubt we see him live up to his performance from last season's event.
42-Kyle Larson: For a long time there, Jamie Mac had the case of the bad luck. Then fast forward to start of the 2015 season and teammate Kyle Larson took the torch. I thought he was capable of going to victory lane at Bristol, until his trackbar broke. On the plus side, I think a trend is starting to develop for Larson. His best two cup cars this season have been on short tracks. Richmond is less than one-mile long. Richmond isn't comparable to any other track, but I don't think it a bad idea to keep him on your fantasy radar though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 12.8 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 85.1 driver rating. Larson haven't posted a top 10 finish at Richmond yet, but I think that will change very soon. Not to mention, his worst career finish is 16th place. So not like he have had any terrible races here. His best three races at RIR have ended in 11th or 12th. His numbers been solid in that span of races, too. He have compiled 3 starts, 11.7 average finish, 11.0 average running position and 91.4 driver rating.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is having a nice season so far, but is coming off one of his races of year though. He should rebound nicely at Richmond though. Johnson have been pretty good at Richmond for awhile now, but just doesn't talked about too much. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 97.7 driver rating. Overall 10 of his past 13 races have ended in 12th or better. Including 3 straight top 9 finishes. Johnson is a 3-time winner at Richmond. He won 3 of 4 races in the 2007 and 2008 seasons. Only two top 5 finishes since though. Which is probably a big reason why, he doesn't typically get mentioned when we talk about the favorites here.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex is having a pretty rocky season so far. He started off the season with a 2nd place finish at Datyona and only have managed one other top 10 finish since then (Texas). Every week, it seems like the 78 team is finding ways to let quality top 5 or top 10 finishes slip away. That the story of Truex's career though. Back in his MWR and DEI days, that was basically his calling card. Run up front, find a way to get screwed over. Good to know things haven't changed. I am not very high on Truex at the moment. It tough to like him very much, when he constantly finishing outside of the top 10. He had very little value, when he posts finishes like that. He also have struggled to get good finishes at Richmond in his career. With his only career top 5 finish coming back when he was in the #1 car (with DEI) in 2008. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 19.3 average finish with 20.3 average running position and 75.2 driver rating. He been better than his numbers indicates though. He have posted 3 Top 10 finishes over his previous 5 starts at this track. He had his 2nd best race ever at Richmond last spring and was a legit top 10 contender for the event. Headed into the weekend, Truex is nothing more than a top 15 driver to me. Mainly because he cannot finish a race inside the top 10 to save his life at the moment!
88-Dale Jr: I am not sure what the hell happened to Dale Jr at start of the Bristol race (I didn't get around to finding out), but I thought he was toasted at first though. I will give him credit though. He fought back and battled it out for a top 5 finish. That 88 team is impressive and Dale Jr is becoming more and more of a threat. The 88 team will look to bulid on their already strong start to the season. Dale haven't gone to victory lane yet this season, but he have some great tracks coming up though. Starting this week actually. He been good at Richmond, but not great. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 9.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 95.3 driver rating. Solid all-around numbers for the driver of the 88 car. Dale Jr have posted 8 straight Top 14 finishes at Richmond and will more than likely make it 9 straight come Sunday. I think he is a top 10 driver headed into the weekend!
**All Stats are from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com and DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
