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Preview -
Drivers I like:
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon have a knack for being a plate racer and heck of a good one, too. He have found more success at Daytona than Talladega. But I like him a lot this week. Dillon have finished 19th or worse in 4 of his past 5 Sprint Cup races. However I think he have a legit shot to turn it around at Talladega, before back-to-back 1.5 milers. Dillon doesn't have the numbers like he does at Daytona, but really he have only had one bad race at Talladega in the No.3 car honestly. That was last spring, when he had engine issue with his car and finished 35th. His other finishes? 14th, 13th, 15th since joining the 3 team full time in 2014. He also raced in the No.14 car back in Fall 2013. He was running top 5 with only a few laps to go, but he got turned into the wall. He eventually finished 26th, but fact is he was very competitive in that race. If Dillon come avoid all the wrecks and any mechanical problems, then he have a very good shot at knocking off another quality finish this Sunday!
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is not the first driver we think of at Dega, but he been a plate racing ace for a long time. He always seems to run well at these venues (Daytona and Talladega), and he been at his best recently at Dega. Harvick been consistent as they come here. Over the past 4 races at Dega, he have compiled 9.8 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 99.8 driver rating. His worst finish in that span? 15th. Looking deeper in the data pool, he have finished 6 of the past 7 races inside the top 15. Including 5 straight Top 15 finishes, dating back to his RCR's days. Heck let's go deeper into the data for the hell of it! Since the 2010 season (12 races), he have posted 9 Top 15 finishes at Dega. Even more impressive? 6 of 9 finishes have ended inside the top 10. So in simple terms, over the past 12 Talladega races, he is battling 50% on finishing inside the top 10. Pretty good, considering how unpredictable this place can be.
11-Denny Hamlin: Denny Hamlin have made himself known as a top-tier plate racer over the past few seasons. But before the 2014 season, he was pretty average. For some reason, he have significantly turned up his plate racing game. And I see no reason to jump off the Hamlin bandwagon, until he starts underperforming at the plates. He won the Daytona 500 earlier this season. He been real good at Talladega, especially in the spring races. Over the past 2 spring races at Talladega, he have compiled 5.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 117.1 driver rating. Hamlin have finishes of 1st and 9th over the past two spring races. Other than that, he have an 18th place finish in the Fall 2014 race. But other than, he have not had a lot to show for overall. Truthfully for me, it not about his resume overall. Sure there quite a few drivers who have had found more success than Denny. It about what Denny have done most recently on the plates and more recently at Talladega. And I see no reason why, he cannot find more success on Sunday. I like him a lot this week. Besides where else will we heavily consider him? Martinsville, New Hampshire, Daytona and that pretty much it honestly.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse had a very strong run going at Richmond last week and then he had to pit, then pit again for uncontrolled tire. Long story short, he finished mid-pack after being a top 10 driver. That is always a tough pill to take, but he should be able to rebound at Talladega. He have performed well in his career at both Daytona and Talladega. He have found more success at Talladega though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish with 21.7 average running position and 65.0 driver rating. Stenhouse have finished 3 of his past 4 races at Talladega inside the top 10. Overall, he have finished 4 of his 5 career races inside the top 13. His lone bad race? 26th in last season's event. More encouraging? He have led least one lap in 4 of those 5 career races. Including in both races last season at Talladega. Stenhouse is having a fine season for RFR and I think he can keep it going, if he can keep that No.17 clean-looking for the full-distance on Sunday.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch is a pretty underrated plate racer in general and never seems to get the credit he deserves for some reason. Even though he have won multiple times here at Talladega. His numbers recently aren't great, but better than people think though. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 21.0 average running position and 75.8 driver rating. Misleading because of the Fall 2014 race. In that event, he finished the race 49 laps down and in the 40th finishing position. His other two races in that span? 11th and 12th. In fact, he have finished 5 of his past 7 Talladega races inside the top 12. Including 3 of those 5 race ending inside the top 5. People don't talk about it much, but Kyle have turned into a stud at Talladega lately compared to earlier in his career. Listen to these stats: First 14 races, he only had 5 Top 15 finishes. His past 7 races, he have had 5 Top 12 finishes.
27-Paul Menard: Menard have not found a lot of success this season, outside of mainly middle teen finishes. However he will have a chance to steal a quality finish this weekend at Talladega. I have long considered this one of Paul's best tracks on the schedule. He spent a few seasons learning from former teammates Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton. All three were very successful in their days in the RCR organization. So I am sure Paul picked up some knowledge from them. He have now turned into a quality driver at Talladega. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 12.8 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 87.0 driver rating. He had 3 Top 6 finishes in that 4 race-span. Going back further, he have posted 4 Top 6 finishes in his past 5 races at Talladega. Dating back to the 2010 season (11 races), he have posted 8 Top 17 finishes. With 7 of those 8 races ending in 13th or better. Menard have been one of the most consistent drivers in the series at Talladega, yet he constantly get overlooked whenever we come here.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is usually good a middle teen finish at Talladega and he is having a pretty good season so far in 2016. So I think we could see another quality finish from the driver of the No.31 car. Newman won't go up there and contend for a top 10 finish, as he will likely stay in middle-pack for most of the day. But when the time comes, I expect him to be somewhere up inside the top 15 or top 20 at the checkers. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 10.5 average finish with 28.0 average running position and 60.3 driver rating. He have posted 5 Top 12 finishes over his past 7 races here. In fact over the past 2 seasons (4 races), he have finished 18th or better in every race. Including 3 straight Top 12 finishes. Newman may not run up front all day long, but he usually find himself in a good position for a solid finish at the end.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is having a great season so far with 2 wins in his pocket. And if history have anything to say about it, then he could add another win to his total this season. HMS have been for a long time known for their speed on the SuperSpeedways. This past February at Daytona was no difference. I expect them to bring that same speed to Talladega. Johnson have an decent Talladega record. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 16.8 average finish with 6.8 average running position and 109.0 driver rating. His ARP (6.8) and Driver rating (109.0) should immediate jump out at you when judging his performance. It obvious that he have had some poor finishes that have effected his finishing position. Overall Johnson does have some quality finishes. Over the past 6 races, he have posted 3 finishes of 13th or better. 4 of those 6 races have ended inside the top 18. Including 2 Top 5 finishes in that span. When Johnson avoid trouble at Talladega, then he usually go for a strong finish. Expect the 48 to be up front a lot on Sunday!
88-Dale Jr: If you leave Dale Jr off your fantasy team this week, then you probably nuts in my personal opinion. Or a freaking genius, still hard to say right now! Point being, Dale Jr will be easily the most popular pick this week at Talladega and it pretty easy to see why. The driver of the No.88 is usually very strong at Talladega and Daytona. Earlier this season, Junior had a rare poor finish. Don't expect history to repeat itself though. Dale been strong at Talladega recently. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 104.1 driver rating. His numbers aren't quite what they are at Daytona, but still very good. In fact, Dale have finished 2nd or better in 3 of his past 5 races. Over the past 10 races at Talladega, he have finished inside the top 9 in 5 of those races. The other 5 races have ended in 17th or worse. While that isn't the numbers people are use to hearing, he still was strong in majority of those races. Expect the 88 car to be one of the heavy favorites to beat come Sunday!
Driver I don't like:
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey Kahne have been on a nice roll of late with 3 straight top 10 finishes, including his performance of the season at Richmond last week. While that's great and all, I don't trust him to deliver a quality finish at Talladega. Kahne is a big question mark in my opinion. He will be fast in HMS equipment and have the potential to finish well. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 18.3 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 91.4 driver rating. Since joining HMS in 2012 (8 races), he have been either top 10 or nothing. In 4 of 8 races with HMS, he have finished inside the top 8. In his other 4 races? 19th or worse. Kahne will have solid potential to steal a quality finish, but I think there are more stable options to consider first though.
14-Tony Stewart: Smoke debut could have gone better for him, but overall it was nice to see him back behind the wheel. Still doesn't change my opinion about how he will do this season. I am not very high on him this weekend honestly. Tony won't stay in the car the entire race, which probably improves his chances of a quality finish this Sunday. As Tony have struggled pretty bad lately to get finishes at both Daytona and Talladega. Ty Dillon is suppose to get behind the wheel after the first caution. However Tony will be credited with the points though. Best case possible, Dillon drives the No.14 car to a top 20 finish.
15-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is a stud at Talladega and Daytona, but after his Daytona performance, I am not convinced he is even worth consideration. Okay he is not worth consideration, and if you watched him this season then you already know why. He have some great stats at Talladega and I would go far as he is the best driver in the series (by the numbers he really is). But damn I cannot trust him this season. You cannot finish up front, if you don't have a fast car. Sure speed aren't as important at the Superspeedways, but still no way he will be able to battle it out up front. Can you trust him in middle-pack when a big wreck occurs? I don't know about anyone else, but I like my fantasy picks contending up front than hanging around 30th place.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is having a bad season with JGR so far, but he knocked off his 2nd top 10 finish at Richmond last week. So maybe his luck is turning around? Maybe. Maybe not. I guess we will find out this weekend at Talladega. However Talladega have not been very kind to Mr.Kenseth lately. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 22.5 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 74.3 driver rating. Kenseth have struggled badly to get quality finishes here since joining JGR. He dominated this event in his JGR debut in 2013, but got screwed when the Davids made that late-race charge to the front. Since that race? He have finished 4 of the past 5 races in 20th or worse. Lone good finish? 2nd place - Fall 2014. Kenseth was very strong at Daytona earlier this season though. He arguably had the car to beat for most of that race. Well until Denny Hamlin punted him out of the way. Point being, he was had a lot of speed. So don't be fooled by that misleading finish. Still I don't trust him worth a damn right now!
22-Joey Logano: Logano is turning into a stud in the Fall race at Talladega, but he been a nightmare in the spring races. I kid you not! Since the 2010 season, he have posted 28.6 in the spring races. While posting 14.8 in the fall races, including a win last fall! His last top 10 finish in the spring was all the way back in the 2011 season. His only other top 10 finish in the spring? 9th in his series debut at this track in 2009 with JGR. My point being, Logano have found some success here in the past. But barely any of it have came in the first Talladega race. Trends don't always hold true, but I would rather take my chances with some other drivers before I take my chances with Logano.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson was very strong in the Daytona 500 and I was quite surprised honestly. He stayed up front for most of the day and came away with a top 10 finish. He also have found some success at Talladega as well. But not enough for him to avoid this dreaded list though. He will from time to time knock out strong finishes at the Superspeedways, but more often than not it won't happen for him. Before the season, Larson was quoted saying, only way Nascar could get him to like the Superspeedways was to demolish them. Probably one of the greatest quotes I have heard this year. Also probably says a lot how he feels about these type of races as well.
Dark Horses:
2-Brad Keselowski: Keslowski have already won twice at Talladega in his short career at the Sprint Cup level and he could make it number 3 on Sunday. Keselowski is a very underrated plate racer in general. He have a knack for running well on these type of tracks. He often contends up front and usually a force to be reckon with. The driver of the 2 car, also have found trouble on the plate tracks in the past. But that seems to come more often at Daytona than Talladega though. Keselowski will be someone to watch out for on Sunday. He been very good at Talladega recently. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 16.3 average finish with 18.8 average running position and 84.4 driver rating. Overall Keselowski have finished 6 of the past 9 races inside the top 15. Including 2 of his past 3 races here inside the top 4. Even though both of those finishes have came in the fall event. Much like teammate Joey Logano, Keselowski have found much more success in the fall race. But I do like Keselowski as a legit dark horse though.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is red-hot right now, but he will try to do something that he have never accomplished before. Win 3 races in a row! Yes, he have won back-to-back races several times throughout his career. But never have he won three straight races. Will he get it done this weekend? Probably not. There couldn't be a worse track to go to, while trying to win three straight races. Even worse, Edwards have found very little success at Talladega. Dating back to the 2007 season, Edwards have only managed 3 Top 10 finishes. In those 18 races, he have only managed 9 Top 20 finishes as well. He always been in top-tier equipment, so that saying a lot. Not like he is forced to ride around in the back all day and get caught up in wrecks. I personally just think Edwards isn't too good of a plate racer. Even at Roush, he never was a standout guy. Always felt like he was overshadowed by his teammates Kenseth and Biffle when we came to these venues. Same thing at JGR. Hamlin and Kenseth always seemed to be talked about anything we come to these races.
24-Chase Elliott: Not a lot to say about Chase Elliott, other than he is one impressive kid! He was very strong at the Daytona 500, until he spun out and destroyed his car through the grass-area. He started on the pole, so I won't be shocked to see him put it on the pole once again. I think Elliott will be a solid driver this weekend at Talladega. He got some experience on the plates at Daytona, so I think that will help him as well. Even though Talladega and Daytona have some obvious difference, you still have to use the draft at both venues. Elliott isn't considered a favorite in my opinion, but he could make some noise. If he can keep that No.24 car clean all race long!
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt is another underrated plate racer and I have for a long time consider him the best driver to never win a plate race. One of these days, he will shock everyone and win one of these events. Busch doesn't always finish out these races, but he usually up front contending for a win at some point or another. He been very good of late when it comes to finishing though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.5 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 90.9 driver rating. Kurt have knocked off 3 straight top 12 finishes at this track, dating back to the 2014 season. Which means he have been rock-solid under Chief Crew Tony Gibson. With finishes of 10th and 12th. I think 41 team can keep the ball rolling at this place.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex is another underrated plate racer and honestly I don't think people realize how much success he have had at both Daytona and Talladega. His success at Daytona more widely known than Talladega in my personal opinion. Don't sleep on him at Talladega though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.0 average finish with 16.3 average finish and 82.8 driver rating. In that 4-race span, he have finished 17th or better in 3 of those 4 races. His numbers even better when we look further into the data pool. Over the past 6 races, he have finished 8th or better in 4 of 6 races. Okay still not convinced? That is fine, so let's look even deeper. Over the past 12 races? 9 finishes of 13th or better. In fact, only twice have Truex finished worse than 17th since the 2010 season. I would say, he is pretty darn good!
***All stats are from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com and DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Preview -
Drivers I like:
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon have a knack for being a plate racer and heck of a good one, too. He have found more success at Daytona than Talladega. But I like him a lot this week. Dillon have finished 19th or worse in 4 of his past 5 Sprint Cup races. However I think he have a legit shot to turn it around at Talladega, before back-to-back 1.5 milers. Dillon doesn't have the numbers like he does at Daytona, but really he have only had one bad race at Talladega in the No.3 car honestly. That was last spring, when he had engine issue with his car and finished 35th. His other finishes? 14th, 13th, 15th since joining the 3 team full time in 2014. He also raced in the No.14 car back in Fall 2013. He was running top 5 with only a few laps to go, but he got turned into the wall. He eventually finished 26th, but fact is he was very competitive in that race. If Dillon come avoid all the wrecks and any mechanical problems, then he have a very good shot at knocking off another quality finish this Sunday!
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is not the first driver we think of at Dega, but he been a plate racing ace for a long time. He always seems to run well at these venues (Daytona and Talladega), and he been at his best recently at Dega. Harvick been consistent as they come here. Over the past 4 races at Dega, he have compiled 9.8 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 99.8 driver rating. His worst finish in that span? 15th. Looking deeper in the data pool, he have finished 6 of the past 7 races inside the top 15. Including 5 straight Top 15 finishes, dating back to his RCR's days. Heck let's go deeper into the data for the hell of it! Since the 2010 season (12 races), he have posted 9 Top 15 finishes at Dega. Even more impressive? 6 of 9 finishes have ended inside the top 10. So in simple terms, over the past 12 Talladega races, he is battling 50% on finishing inside the top 10. Pretty good, considering how unpredictable this place can be.
11-Denny Hamlin: Denny Hamlin have made himself known as a top-tier plate racer over the past few seasons. But before the 2014 season, he was pretty average. For some reason, he have significantly turned up his plate racing game. And I see no reason to jump off the Hamlin bandwagon, until he starts underperforming at the plates. He won the Daytona 500 earlier this season. He been real good at Talladega, especially in the spring races. Over the past 2 spring races at Talladega, he have compiled 5.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 117.1 driver rating. Hamlin have finishes of 1st and 9th over the past two spring races. Other than that, he have an 18th place finish in the Fall 2014 race. But other than, he have not had a lot to show for overall. Truthfully for me, it not about his resume overall. Sure there quite a few drivers who have had found more success than Denny. It about what Denny have done most recently on the plates and more recently at Talladega. And I see no reason why, he cannot find more success on Sunday. I like him a lot this week. Besides where else will we heavily consider him? Martinsville, New Hampshire, Daytona and that pretty much it honestly.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse had a very strong run going at Richmond last week and then he had to pit, then pit again for uncontrolled tire. Long story short, he finished mid-pack after being a top 10 driver. That is always a tough pill to take, but he should be able to rebound at Talladega. He have performed well in his career at both Daytona and Talladega. He have found more success at Talladega though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish with 21.7 average running position and 65.0 driver rating. Stenhouse have finished 3 of his past 4 races at Talladega inside the top 10. Overall, he have finished 4 of his 5 career races inside the top 13. His lone bad race? 26th in last season's event. More encouraging? He have led least one lap in 4 of those 5 career races. Including in both races last season at Talladega. Stenhouse is having a fine season for RFR and I think he can keep it going, if he can keep that No.17 clean-looking for the full-distance on Sunday.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch is a pretty underrated plate racer in general and never seems to get the credit he deserves for some reason. Even though he have won multiple times here at Talladega. His numbers recently aren't great, but better than people think though. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 21.0 average running position and 75.8 driver rating. Misleading because of the Fall 2014 race. In that event, he finished the race 49 laps down and in the 40th finishing position. His other two races in that span? 11th and 12th. In fact, he have finished 5 of his past 7 Talladega races inside the top 12. Including 3 of those 5 race ending inside the top 5. People don't talk about it much, but Kyle have turned into a stud at Talladega lately compared to earlier in his career. Listen to these stats: First 14 races, he only had 5 Top 15 finishes. His past 7 races, he have had 5 Top 12 finishes.
27-Paul Menard: Menard have not found a lot of success this season, outside of mainly middle teen finishes. However he will have a chance to steal a quality finish this weekend at Talladega. I have long considered this one of Paul's best tracks on the schedule. He spent a few seasons learning from former teammates Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton. All three were very successful in their days in the RCR organization. So I am sure Paul picked up some knowledge from them. He have now turned into a quality driver at Talladega. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 12.8 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 87.0 driver rating. He had 3 Top 6 finishes in that 4 race-span. Going back further, he have posted 4 Top 6 finishes in his past 5 races at Talladega. Dating back to the 2010 season (11 races), he have posted 8 Top 17 finishes. With 7 of those 8 races ending in 13th or better. Menard have been one of the most consistent drivers in the series at Talladega, yet he constantly get overlooked whenever we come here.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is usually good a middle teen finish at Talladega and he is having a pretty good season so far in 2016. So I think we could see another quality finish from the driver of the No.31 car. Newman won't go up there and contend for a top 10 finish, as he will likely stay in middle-pack for most of the day. But when the time comes, I expect him to be somewhere up inside the top 15 or top 20 at the checkers. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 10.5 average finish with 28.0 average running position and 60.3 driver rating. He have posted 5 Top 12 finishes over his past 7 races here. In fact over the past 2 seasons (4 races), he have finished 18th or better in every race. Including 3 straight Top 12 finishes. Newman may not run up front all day long, but he usually find himself in a good position for a solid finish at the end.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is having a great season so far with 2 wins in his pocket. And if history have anything to say about it, then he could add another win to his total this season. HMS have been for a long time known for their speed on the SuperSpeedways. This past February at Daytona was no difference. I expect them to bring that same speed to Talladega. Johnson have an decent Talladega record. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 16.8 average finish with 6.8 average running position and 109.0 driver rating. His ARP (6.8) and Driver rating (109.0) should immediate jump out at you when judging his performance. It obvious that he have had some poor finishes that have effected his finishing position. Overall Johnson does have some quality finishes. Over the past 6 races, he have posted 3 finishes of 13th or better. 4 of those 6 races have ended inside the top 18. Including 2 Top 5 finishes in that span. When Johnson avoid trouble at Talladega, then he usually go for a strong finish. Expect the 48 to be up front a lot on Sunday!
88-Dale Jr: If you leave Dale Jr off your fantasy team this week, then you probably nuts in my personal opinion. Or a freaking genius, still hard to say right now! Point being, Dale Jr will be easily the most popular pick this week at Talladega and it pretty easy to see why. The driver of the No.88 is usually very strong at Talladega and Daytona. Earlier this season, Junior had a rare poor finish. Don't expect history to repeat itself though. Dale been strong at Talladega recently. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 104.1 driver rating. His numbers aren't quite what they are at Daytona, but still very good. In fact, Dale have finished 2nd or better in 3 of his past 5 races. Over the past 10 races at Talladega, he have finished inside the top 9 in 5 of those races. The other 5 races have ended in 17th or worse. While that isn't the numbers people are use to hearing, he still was strong in majority of those races. Expect the 88 car to be one of the heavy favorites to beat come Sunday!
Driver I don't like:
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey Kahne have been on a nice roll of late with 3 straight top 10 finishes, including his performance of the season at Richmond last week. While that's great and all, I don't trust him to deliver a quality finish at Talladega. Kahne is a big question mark in my opinion. He will be fast in HMS equipment and have the potential to finish well. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 18.3 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 91.4 driver rating. Since joining HMS in 2012 (8 races), he have been either top 10 or nothing. In 4 of 8 races with HMS, he have finished inside the top 8. In his other 4 races? 19th or worse. Kahne will have solid potential to steal a quality finish, but I think there are more stable options to consider first though.
14-Tony Stewart: Smoke debut could have gone better for him, but overall it was nice to see him back behind the wheel. Still doesn't change my opinion about how he will do this season. I am not very high on him this weekend honestly. Tony won't stay in the car the entire race, which probably improves his chances of a quality finish this Sunday. As Tony have struggled pretty bad lately to get finishes at both Daytona and Talladega. Ty Dillon is suppose to get behind the wheel after the first caution. However Tony will be credited with the points though. Best case possible, Dillon drives the No.14 car to a top 20 finish.
15-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is a stud at Talladega and Daytona, but after his Daytona performance, I am not convinced he is even worth consideration. Okay he is not worth consideration, and if you watched him this season then you already know why. He have some great stats at Talladega and I would go far as he is the best driver in the series (by the numbers he really is). But damn I cannot trust him this season. You cannot finish up front, if you don't have a fast car. Sure speed aren't as important at the Superspeedways, but still no way he will be able to battle it out up front. Can you trust him in middle-pack when a big wreck occurs? I don't know about anyone else, but I like my fantasy picks contending up front than hanging around 30th place.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is having a bad season with JGR so far, but he knocked off his 2nd top 10 finish at Richmond last week. So maybe his luck is turning around? Maybe. Maybe not. I guess we will find out this weekend at Talladega. However Talladega have not been very kind to Mr.Kenseth lately. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 22.5 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 74.3 driver rating. Kenseth have struggled badly to get quality finishes here since joining JGR. He dominated this event in his JGR debut in 2013, but got screwed when the Davids made that late-race charge to the front. Since that race? He have finished 4 of the past 5 races in 20th or worse. Lone good finish? 2nd place - Fall 2014. Kenseth was very strong at Daytona earlier this season though. He arguably had the car to beat for most of that race. Well until Denny Hamlin punted him out of the way. Point being, he was had a lot of speed. So don't be fooled by that misleading finish. Still I don't trust him worth a damn right now!
22-Joey Logano: Logano is turning into a stud in the Fall race at Talladega, but he been a nightmare in the spring races. I kid you not! Since the 2010 season, he have posted 28.6 in the spring races. While posting 14.8 in the fall races, including a win last fall! His last top 10 finish in the spring was all the way back in the 2011 season. His only other top 10 finish in the spring? 9th in his series debut at this track in 2009 with JGR. My point being, Logano have found some success here in the past. But barely any of it have came in the first Talladega race. Trends don't always hold true, but I would rather take my chances with some other drivers before I take my chances with Logano.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson was very strong in the Daytona 500 and I was quite surprised honestly. He stayed up front for most of the day and came away with a top 10 finish. He also have found some success at Talladega as well. But not enough for him to avoid this dreaded list though. He will from time to time knock out strong finishes at the Superspeedways, but more often than not it won't happen for him. Before the season, Larson was quoted saying, only way Nascar could get him to like the Superspeedways was to demolish them. Probably one of the greatest quotes I have heard this year. Also probably says a lot how he feels about these type of races as well.
Dark Horses:
2-Brad Keselowski: Keslowski have already won twice at Talladega in his short career at the Sprint Cup level and he could make it number 3 on Sunday. Keselowski is a very underrated plate racer in general. He have a knack for running well on these type of tracks. He often contends up front and usually a force to be reckon with. The driver of the 2 car, also have found trouble on the plate tracks in the past. But that seems to come more often at Daytona than Talladega though. Keselowski will be someone to watch out for on Sunday. He been very good at Talladega recently. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 16.3 average finish with 18.8 average running position and 84.4 driver rating. Overall Keselowski have finished 6 of the past 9 races inside the top 15. Including 2 of his past 3 races here inside the top 4. Even though both of those finishes have came in the fall event. Much like teammate Joey Logano, Keselowski have found much more success in the fall race. But I do like Keselowski as a legit dark horse though.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is red-hot right now, but he will try to do something that he have never accomplished before. Win 3 races in a row! Yes, he have won back-to-back races several times throughout his career. But never have he won three straight races. Will he get it done this weekend? Probably not. There couldn't be a worse track to go to, while trying to win three straight races. Even worse, Edwards have found very little success at Talladega. Dating back to the 2007 season, Edwards have only managed 3 Top 10 finishes. In those 18 races, he have only managed 9 Top 20 finishes as well. He always been in top-tier equipment, so that saying a lot. Not like he is forced to ride around in the back all day and get caught up in wrecks. I personally just think Edwards isn't too good of a plate racer. Even at Roush, he never was a standout guy. Always felt like he was overshadowed by his teammates Kenseth and Biffle when we came to these venues. Same thing at JGR. Hamlin and Kenseth always seemed to be talked about anything we come to these races.
24-Chase Elliott: Not a lot to say about Chase Elliott, other than he is one impressive kid! He was very strong at the Daytona 500, until he spun out and destroyed his car through the grass-area. He started on the pole, so I won't be shocked to see him put it on the pole once again. I think Elliott will be a solid driver this weekend at Talladega. He got some experience on the plates at Daytona, so I think that will help him as well. Even though Talladega and Daytona have some obvious difference, you still have to use the draft at both venues. Elliott isn't considered a favorite in my opinion, but he could make some noise. If he can keep that No.24 car clean all race long!
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt is another underrated plate racer and I have for a long time consider him the best driver to never win a plate race. One of these days, he will shock everyone and win one of these events. Busch doesn't always finish out these races, but he usually up front contending for a win at some point or another. He been very good of late when it comes to finishing though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.5 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 90.9 driver rating. Kurt have knocked off 3 straight top 12 finishes at this track, dating back to the 2014 season. Which means he have been rock-solid under Chief Crew Tony Gibson. With finishes of 10th and 12th. I think 41 team can keep the ball rolling at this place.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex is another underrated plate racer and honestly I don't think people realize how much success he have had at both Daytona and Talladega. His success at Daytona more widely known than Talladega in my personal opinion. Don't sleep on him at Talladega though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.0 average finish with 16.3 average finish and 82.8 driver rating. In that 4-race span, he have finished 17th or better in 3 of those 4 races. His numbers even better when we look further into the data pool. Over the past 6 races, he have finished 8th or better in 4 of 6 races. Okay still not convinced? That is fine, so let's look even deeper. Over the past 12 races? 9 finishes of 13th or better. In fact, only twice have Truex finished worse than 17th since the 2010 season. I would say, he is pretty darn good!
***All stats are from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com and DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
