Welcome to TimersSports
Its Dega Time! You heard right and boy I dread these plate races. There nothing worse as a fantasy player than 43 cars under a blanket while for insanity to strike. Personally I prefer predictable race like last week at Richmond. It didn't take a fortune teller to know who would legitimate finish up front. Talladega is the complete opposite. If you can avoid the big one , then you almost certain to finish in the top 20. At Talladega , that is almost good as a win for some teams.
The primary goal is to escape with minimum damage to your season championship hopes. In other words, don't go super crazy with your lineups. Certain drivers seems to run well here. Those should be your building blocks. Be warned , anyone can win and anyone can wreck out!
*Today's Preview will be set up dramatically different than most weeks.
*Most of the preview's is filled with opinions and thoughts. Added in stats to get my point across when needed.
Drivers I like:
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski haven't gotten the results the past two races (Bristol and Richmond). However he have ran very well at Daytona and Talladega recently. He won at Dega last season and was very strong earlier this season before engine let go at Daytona. In 12 career starts ,Brad is already an 3-time winner. He really don't get enough respect as a elite plate racer! If Brad stays out of trouble , then expect him to deliver a reliable finish. He have finished inside the top 10 in over 50% of his starts.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is one of my favorite sleepers plays. I am not sure if everyone realize how good Dillon is on the plates. He is really good and only in his 2nd year of Cup! Dillon potential is awesome and I think many people will overlook him. Mainly because he haven't won yet. Last season he finished 13th and 15th. Dillon understands how to draft effectively and more importantly won't do anything reckless to become a liability. I don't recommend Dillon much , but he is a decent option to roll with.
4-Kevin Harvick: There a lot to like about Harvick. Then again where isn't Harvick bad fast? Harvick is a elite performer at Talladega and that isn't questionable! 4 Of his past 5 starts have ended inside the top 12. Including a pair of top 10s last season. Harvick always been a great plate racer and have even became better with SHR. Only way he finishes poorly will be because of the big one or some type of mechanical issue. Otherwise he is locked in for another solid points day.
11-Denny Hamlin: I will keep it short in sweet with Hamlin! He been absolute stud since last season's Daytona 500. Look up and down the board , he was a heavy contender in every race. I mean it hard to ignore how good Hamlin been. Honestly he turned things around out of the blue. Hamlin never been known for his plate skills. Yet he have finishes lately to back it up. Stats don't mean much here , but showing consistency is a comforting sign for us fantasy players.
13-Casey Mears: Mears will likely be a popular sleeper pick this week and I cannot blame anyone either. Mears have gained the trust of us fantasy players after solid performance after solid performance. He swept the top 15 here last season. Actually he swept the top 15 on plates races in 2014. He seems to do a nice job of staying in contention. He may fade to the back few times , but he been there in the end. A lot of it have to do with luck. Will luck be on the side of the 13 team? We will find out soon enough.
15-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is in my opinion the best plate racer at Talladega. The dude is a machine and does everything so damn well. Also doesn't hurt he have a really strong track record. How strong? 8 Top 10s in his past 10 starts. Do you realize most drivers don't even have 8 lead lap finishes , let alone 8 Top 10s. He is reliable and he is a great fantasy pick this week. Nothing is a sure thing at Talladega , but I like his chances!
16-Greg Biffle: Biffle is a very underrated driver at Talladega. He doesn't seems to get the respect he once did. Make no mistake , he is still capable of running up front. More often than not , he delivers quality performances. While I do believe he is a better overall performer at Daytona , I do think he will make a fantastic option this week. I don't blame you , if you pass on him though.
22-Joey Logano: Logano slowly but surely becoming a force on the plates. That was pretty obviously after strong performances at Talladega in 2014 and his impressive Daytona 500 win. Most people haven't realized how good he been though. I will take the potential of Logano over anyone in the field among non-Talladega winners. He finished 11th last fall after fading from the lead late.
43-Aric Almirola: Aric is a very underrated plate racer. Not many realize how good Aric been the past few years. He haven't ran up front a lot , but definitely have found ways to finish well. I always find that a plus here. 6 Of his past 8 starts have ended inside the top 20. Aric could be a sneaky play , if everything lines up correctly for him. Feeling lucky?
48-Jimmie Johnson: At one time , Johnson was a terrible option to roll with. That was then and this now! Hard to deny , Johnson isn't the first option who comes to mind. However he been one of the best , if not the best performer over the past two seasons. The results don't show it either. One of the many reasons I believe he is a great option to roll. Expect Johnson to hang under the radar all week long. He have posted a series-leading 6.8 average running position at Talladega. The 2nd-best average running position? 11.5 of Kurt Busch. Johnson also have led in 10 straight races here. That a streak dating back to 2010. 23 Of his 25 starts , Johnson have led least 1 lap. I will take Johnson all day over a unproven option.
Drivers I dislike-
1-Jamie Mac: I jumped on the JMac bandwagon last week. However he will disappoint this week or finish really well. Trust me he is the definition of boom or bust! JMac will always be everyone favorite hail mary pick. As he known to deliver big finishes at big races. Unfortunately his finishes rarely matches his performances. JMac always run well here , but cannot finishes them out. In past 10 starts (since rejoining CGR) , JMac have 3 Top 11 finishes and 7 finishes of 21st or worse. Including 5 finishes worse than 28th. Yeah I know where I am putting my money!
5-Kasey Kahne: I been very high on Kahne all season , but Talladega doesn't agree with him. If there trouble , he will find it. Or trouble will find him. Either way , I am not very big on Kahne. He been better than most expect lately , but it hard to use him at a place like Talladega. The past 3 seasons , Kahne have developed a pattern! 2 good finishes , 2 bad finishes , 2 good finishes over that span. If the pattern holds , then expect disappointment from Kahne. Kahne boom or bust over his past 10 Talladega starts. 5 Finishes in the top 12 and 5 finishes worse than 20th. Including 4 outside the top 25.
14-Tony Stewart: Smoke have no confidence right now. When a driver doesn't believe in himself , the team doesn't in themselves. Its very hard to put Smoke in list because he was once a threat at Talladega! Last season he struck out on the plates. For me it about in his inability to finish one of these races. One of many reasons I don't like him much as a fantasy pick.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is like the fat kid in the gym trying to situp. Edwards have struggled all season in finishing races. More noticeably , he haven't been able to take advantage of top tier equipment. Really the 19 team is missing something. Could be chemistry , but personal I think the root of the problem goes much deeper. Anyhow my point there better options especially at Talladega. Kansas or Charlotte? Maybe.
24-Jeff Gordon: No driver have more Top 10s than Gordon since Phoenix. However only once have Gordon placed better than 7th. Talladega is a place I don't like Gordon very much. Sure he's a 6-time winner , but anyone can win at a track multiple times in top tier equipment in a 20+ years span. Especially if you had the talent of Gordon. Over his past 7 starts here , he have had 4 finishes outside the top 25 and only 1 Top 10 finish. In Yahoo , I might consider him for qualifying points though. Otherwise there several guys on my radar before Gordon name comes up.
42-Kyle Larson: The CGR cars are starting to show more speed which is something I expected they would as we approach the warmer months. SuperSpeedways been a very troublesome for the young rookie. He been much better at Talladega , however I think it unwise to trust an young unproven option who haven't really had the chance to fully develop on this type track. He will be better on the intermediate tracks coming up in the summer months.
47-AJ Dinger: This is probably a hail mary anyhow , but AJ Dinger is a great driver. Definitely have proven why he belongs in Nascar on short tracks and road courses. However I haven't been impressed by his performance on the plates. He finished in the top 5 last season. Unfortunately that may have been fluke. Hard to trust an unproven option , especially a underfunded team like JTG. Typically smaller teams are more of a liability and Dinger isn't exactly known for excellent plate racing skills and abilities.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex is having a great season. He even ran extremely well at the 500. I like Truex , he is taking this 78 team places. A lot like Busch did in 2013 before jumping to SHR. Unfortunately I think he too valuable too waste at Talladega. Especially in formats that focus in on limitation regarding starts. Really difficult to recommend him in such formats. In general , I think he will be competitive. However I get a feeling bad luck will be lurking on the other side. That's just me though.
Dark Horses I like -
10-Danica Patrick: I see Danica either finding trouble or knocking off another top 10. The way she have performed of late , I say that outcome is very likely. Hard to say , since this race is usually full of surprises. This race is a toss up to be honest. Danica have just as good of shot as anyone else probably. Her Talladega record isn't anything impressive though.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse have been one of the best drivers at Talladega. He would be a popular pick , but it seems like luck starting to withdraw from his restrictor plate bank account. As he have found trouble in back-to-back restrictor plate races. Definitely not encouraging , but they were both at Daytona. I also believe RFR is still a top tier program at SuperSpeedways. I never had doubt about that.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth seems to be hit or miss at Talladega with JGR. Honestly I am not real high on Kenseth, but I still believe he is a great plate racer. He usually is a heavy contender and with a little luck he could make a very strong option on Sunday.
27-Paul Menard: Menard should be another popular sleeper this weekend. He have been a excellent performer and qualifier at Talladega the past few seasons. He finished 6th last season in this event and quickly have became one of the more reliable options among secondary-tier drivers. I would definitely give serious consideration toward Menard if all possible.
41-Kurt Busch: Busch is the best plate racer to never win a plate race. As I mentioned above , he have had the 2nd best average running position over the past two seasons at Talladega. I don't think Busch will go out and dominate , but I like him a lot. He should make a super fine option in most formats. Last season he finished 33rd and 7th respectively.
88-Dale Jr: Most people will say Dale Jr is the best option at Talladega. He's much better at Daytona. Dale been okay at Talladega , however not dominant! I cannot say he haven't been good. Dale undoubtedly have had few awesome performances here. Unfortunately only 4 Top 15s (3 Top 10s) in that span. So he batting .400 in the top 15 over a 5-year span. Isn't terrible , but don't try compare it to his Daytona record. Point being , Dale is the safe play. On the flip side , he isn't a must like at Daytona 500 earlier this season. Even though he will be the most popular pick!
**All stats from Driveraverages & FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
