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Fantasy Update -
A:
1. Joey Logano - Logano starts 6th and have a great car for Bristol. He showed excellent promise in every session this weekend and probably should've had the pole. Not sure what happened in the final round of qualifying , but he lay down the fastest lap in the first two rounds. I really like that Logano racing in the NXS race on Saturday. While the track will be dramatically different on Sunday after the rain , I don't think it hurt to have all laps under your belt the day before. I have a strong feeling Logano wins.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski will start on the front row. He seems to have a very good Ford for this weekend. I haven't paid much attention to him , but I wouldn't be shocked to see him in victory lane. The 2 crew always seems to give Brad a fast piece at Bristol. I don't expect this weekend to be any different. The only long run I watched from him , I thought he looked very strong. Which is a surprise to nobody. I expect another top 5 run from Brad.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Kevin Harvick - Harvick to no shock looked solid in practice. I thought he looked really good in both sessions on Saturday and qualified 4th. Last season he was really strong , but never got the finishes he deserved overall. I think he finishes in the top 3. Honestly I have a feeling he may fade late in the race. That my only concern. Kinda like at Martinsville.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth starts from the pole and will be a heavy contender at Bristol. Kenseth didn't put down the fastest lap , but he that so Matt Kenseth. He rarely shows his full hand in practice. I like that Kenseth starts up front! In fact , I think its critical to start up front. There actually several benefits from starting from the pole. Such as pit selection and track position. Two things which will likely be key at end of the race. I love Matt's past performance both from JGR and career standpoint. In 30 career starts , Matt have 4 career wins and 12.2 average finish. He have dominated since joining JGR. He have led more laps than any other driver. Including 250 laps in past two spring races.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
5. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin have looked just as good as his JGR teammates! He starts from 5th and should contend for a win this weekend. However his recent track record will likely scare most away from picking him. Only one top 10 finish over his past 4 starts. On Saturday I thought Hamlin had a top 5 to top 10 car and decent on the longer runs. The JGR cars seems to be hooked up once again at the short tracks. Few weeks ago , they placed 3 Toyotas in the top 5 at Martinsville. I see him finishing from 4th - 7th place range.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
Other Options - Dale Jr (8th) , Gordon (10th) , Johnson (12th) and Newman (13th)
B:
1. Kasey Kahne - Kahne is the top option in this tier in my opinion. He starts from inside the top 10 and looked like the best HMS car. That been a common theme this season too! Kahne overall was pretty pleased with his Chevrolet in both practices. This comes to no surprise at all. He been arguably the best driver since the reconfiguration after March 2012 spring's race. I really like how Kahne have rebounded this season thus far. Reminds me a lot of his 2013 campaign , but just more balanced in his finishes. I say he finishes in or near the top 5 , if he doesn't have any problems.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
2. Kurt Busch - Busch was bad fast in both practices on Saturday and starts inside the top 10! Both him and teammate Harvick looks like top 5 options without question. He been hit or miss lately here , and based off practice he very well could end in victory lane. He is a 5-time winner (last coming in 2006) and knocked off an top 10 last season. Its would be hard to sit him this week. Then again , when haven't he been fast?
My Overall Ranking: 5th
3. Carl Edwards - Edwards starts 3rd and looks like a top 10 option in my opinion. He looked decent in every session. I thought he was little better in the early morning temps. Still an top 10 play. I think Edwards about to go on a hot streak! Especially with Richmond , Kansas , Charlotte , Dover , Michigan and Sonoma coming up over the 8 races. Its a good time to ride Edwards. Also it doesn't hurt that JGR have a strong short track program which is always a positive in terms on fantasy value. I say he finishes inside the top 10 on Sunday.
My Overall Ranking: 9th
4. Jamie McMurray - JMac is my personal sleeper for this weekend's race. He starts inside the top 10 and potentially could finish there. Jamie actually have finished well all season long , but unfortunately not many have noticed. He was solid in both sessions and was impressive overall. I was expecting Larson to be the better CGR car in practice. But that wasn't the case. I think he is definitely worth a gamble! However remember Jamie have a knack for bad luck at the worst times. If he is running up front , then you should probably panic.
My Overall Ranking: 11th
5. Martin Truex Jr - I debated Larson or Truex for the 5th spot. I went Truex because of his momentum. Truthfully I wasn't overly impressive by Truex. While he wasn't terrible , I personally doubt he extend his streak to 8 straight Top 10s. He roll off from inside the top 15 and that where I pretty much see him finishing. His only saving grace is probably this is a short track. If a few big name get knocked out , then he may sneak away with another top 10. From a fantasy view , I would recommend to put him in the garage. Unless you have him a significant value price.
My Overall Ranking: 14th
6. Kyle Larson - Honestly I was expecting more out of Larson. Thus far he haven't shown me much of anything. He will roll off from 14th and probably finish around there. I never count this kid out. Few times this season , we have seen him struggle in practice. Followed it up by running competitively in the race. Not sure what to expect from Larson to be completely honest.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
Other options - Menard (17th) , Dinger (18th) , Dillon (19th) and Biffle (20th)
C:
1. David Ragan - Ragan actually looked really good this weekend! Did someone tell him about Erik Jones? That my theory. Over the past two races (Martinsville & Texas) , he have considerably pick up his performance. And he isn't looking to slow down anytime soon. David qualified 11th and posted solid laps in both practices on Saturday. I thought he was pretty good on the long runs. Not saying he will finish inside the top 10 , but he should definitely contend for another top 15.
My Overall Ranking: 16th
2. Justin Allgier - Allgier been the 2nd best option in this tier all weekend and I don't see that changing in the race. Honestly I think Allgier will do well , but realistically there a major gap between he and Ragan. A lot of that have to do quality of equipment level. I expect another top 25 out of justin.
My Overall Ranking: 22nd
3. Brett Moffitt - My sleeper in this tier is the driver of the #55 Toyota! He was vastly overlooked this week. I don't feel largely comfortable starting a rookie , but Brett have a successful short track background. He won't run in the top 10 or even top 15. But I believe he have more value and potential than Allgier. His upside alone makes him a worthy option. However I believe Ragan experience and quality of equipment will be too much for Brett to overcome. Expect an top 25 from Moffitt. Even though I wouldn't rule out a potential top 20. Unrealistic in my opinion though.
My Overall Ranking: 23rd
Other Option - Patrick (26th)
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
