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After an much-needed rest , we head southwest from Martinsville to Texas! In Fort Worth , Texas waits Texas Motor Speedway. The 1.5 mile Intermediate racetrack will bring multiple challenges for fantasy players. From potential bad weather to sorting the legitimate fantasy picks out of the pretenders!
This is the 4th Intermediate race on the schedule , so we will heavily depend on track data from Atlanta , Fontona and Las Vegas. While keeping tabs on past track data. Certain teams just seem to perform well here! Grab a Texas size beer and enjoy!
*Side-Note: I used mainly past track data and stats from Atlanta and Vegas in today's preview.
*All these stats can be found on Driveraverages.com or FantasyRacingCheatsheet.com
1-Jamie Mac: Jamie Mac is inconsistent and will likely score a finish from 8th - 18th or an DNF! At 1.5 mile tracks this season , JMac have compiled 25.5 average finish with an 15.0 average running position. To be fair , he wrecked out at Atlanta. At Las Vegas , JMac started 10th and finished 11th. In that race , he held an 13.0 average running position and completed 63% all laps inside the top 15. To be completely honestly , equipment only takes a driver so far. Unfortunately the CGR cars most weekend will have a top 15 type potential (depending on how good the car is too.) The Talent behind the wheel determines the rest. Unlike Kyle Larson , JMac will only go far as his equipment will let him.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is off to a hot start in 2015! The first 3 races , I thought he was okay. But he have turned it up over his past 3 including a win in California! He been solid at Texas over his past 5 starts at the 1.5 mile racetrack. BK have compiled 7.0 average finish and 4 finishes of 9th or better! He should be better though. Last Spring , Brad was nailed with a speeding penalty when running in the top 5 under caution with only few laps left. Ultimately finished 15th. BK been among the best in the series at Intermediate tracks in 2015. Brad have compiled 8.0 average finish and 10.0 average finish with 99.4 driver rating. Brad seems to get better as races goes on.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon needs to improve on this type track starting this week! Texas haven't been a terrible place for Dillon. Excluding Dillon's first start in 2013 where he finished 33rd. Dillon actually been reliable in the previous three starts. In those races , he have finished 21st (twice last season) or 22nd. At similar tracks , Dillon have compiled 28.0 average finish and 29.5 average running position. To be fair , I think it unfair to hold a driver responsible when he or she finishes multiple laps down. Usually if a driver finishes more than 3 laps down , it wasn't the driver fault. At Atlanta he blew a tire and finish deep in the field. At Las Vegas , Dillon finished 20th with an 18.0 average running position. Expect something similar at Texas!
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick will be the odd-on favorite to win at Texas on Saturday! Last season he held an 22.0 average finish , but to be fair he only completed 28 laps before a blown engine occurred in the spring. In the fall , Harvick finished 2nd after starting from 5th. In that race he held an 4.0 average running postion and 120.0 driver rating and led 2 laps. Harvick stats on Intermediate tracks this season been insane! At 1.5 mile tracks , Harvick have compiled 1.5 average finish , 2 Top 5s , 1.5 average running position , 258 laps led (129 laps led/per race) and 134.0 driver rating. In simpler terms , Harvick have been basically unstoppable. In 24 career starts at Texas , he have finished 16th or better nineteen times. Including 12 Top 10 , with eight of those resulting in 7th or better.
5-Kasey Kahne: I consider Kahne the most inconsistent option in the game. At Texas , Kahne have compiled , an 16.1 average finish in past 6 races. Including 4 finishes of 11th or better and 2 finishes of 25th and 38th. Historically speaking , Kahne been inconsistent at best. In 21 starts , Kahne holds an 18.6 average finish and 1 win back in 2006. Kahne have more finishes worse than 20th (12) , then he does inside the top 15 (9). On 1.5 mile tracks , KK have compiled an 15.5 average finish , 100.6 driver rating and 7.0 average running position. Honestly if HMS gives him a fast car , Kahne will do great. If they don't , then he won't. Kahne doesn't have the talent to overcome a poor setup in the car.
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick is coming off an 7th place finish , but remember that was at a short-flat track. At Atlanta & Vegas , Patrick compiled 21.5 average finish , 64.5 driver rating and 23.0 average running position. At Texas , she been pretty average at say the least. In 5 career starts , Danica have an 28.0 average finish and a career-best of 24th in her debut. Digging deeper , she owns an 30.0 average running position and 49.6 driver rating. Last season she hold an 31.5 average finish with an 31.5 average running. Her best race of the two were the spring race. In that race she finished 27th and held a 28.0 average running position with a 53.2 driver rating. Also Danica have finished least 2 laps down in four straight Texas races.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is coming off a win at Martinsville and I wouldn't bet against him making it back-to-back. JGR have shown steady improvements on the Intermediate tracks. Their performance at Fontana told me a lot. On 1.5 mile tracks this season , Hamlin have compiled 21.5 average finish with a 9.0 average running position. At Atlanta he wrecked out. Before wrecking , Hamlin had a solid top 5 car. At Texas over past 3 races , Hamlin owns an 10.0 average finish in those races. Last season he held an 11.5 average finish , 23 laps led , 95.0 driver rating , and 9.5 average running position. In 18 career starts , Hamlins holds an 10.8 average finish with 14 finishes in the top 15. Including 7 finishes of 7th or better. With 3 of those ending in the top 2 and two of those three ended in wins.
16-Greg Biffle: The Biff have struggled this season and RFR is to blame. Quite depressing to see a guy like Biff running where he been at places he use to be a race winning threat. Despite being down , Biffle have still delivered reliable results overall at Texas. Over his past 4 races , Biff has held an 8.7 average finish. Its even more encouraging that Biffle have finished 6th and 4th in his past 2 spring races. In fact since 2009 , Biff haven't finished worse than 6th in the spring. In 22 career starts at Texas , Biff holds an 14.9 average finish with 15 finishes of 13th or better. Including 13 straight finishes of 13th or better. During that span , Biff have finish seven finishes of 5th or better. At 1.5 mile tracks , Biff have compiled an 19.0 average finish and 19.5 average running position. Flip a coin! Do you trust past history or current season data more?
18-David Ragan: Ragan is coming off an 5th place finish at Martinsville. All honestly I wouldn't set the bar too high. He unlikely to repeat that performance and will likely be at best an top 25 option with top 20. Its kinda pointless to look at past track history because of Ragan unique situation. At similar tracks , Ragan have compiled 20.0 average finish and 22.0 average running position. Now that nothing special , but I will take an 20th place finish anyday in an allocation league like Yahoo.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards have the cases of bad luck! Six races in and haven't finished the top 10 yet. At Texas over the past 4 races , Edwards holds an 15.3 average finish , 38 laps led , 16.8 average running position and 86.4 driver rating. In 20 career starts , Edwards have an 15.2 average finish. 15 Times Edwards have finished 19th or better. Including 5 finishes of 5th or better. 3 Of those have ended in wins. His last win was in 2008. On 1.5 mile tracks this season , Edwards have compiled an 27.0 average finish , 9.5 average start , 2 laps led , 12.0 average running position and 90.5 driver rating. Edwards will have a top 10 car , but uncertain if he can deliver the closing pitch.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is a machine at track. This is considered his best track. Over the past 4 races here , Kenseth holds an 12.0 average finish , 62 laps led , 8.2 average running position and 103.2 driver rating. Last fall race , Kenseth finished 25th , but its very misleading. In that race he held an 6.0 average running position and 103.1 driver rating. On lap 320 , Newman and Kenseth smacked into each other which led to Kenseth have to pit to repair his damaged JGR Toyota. Historically speaking , Kenseth holds an 8.9 average finish. 23 Times he have finished inside the top 20. Including 17 times he have finished 9th or better! Last fall was only one of two finishes worse than 20th. At 1.5 mile tracks this season , Kenseth have compiled 7.0 average finish , 11 laps led , 11.5 average running position and 95.0 driver rating. He a lock for a top 15 and probably the safest option in the field.
22-Joey Logano: Logano been one of the best drivers at Texas over the past 4 races. In that span , JoLo have held an 5.2 average finish (Tie for series-best) , 110 laps led (6th-best) , 8.3 average running position (Tied for series-best) and 109.6 driver rating (3rd-best). Of those four finishes , last fall race was the only event where he didn't finish inside the top 5. Why? After a speeding penalty , Logano spun which mired him deep in the field. He was lucky to escape with an 12th place. At 1.5 mile tracks this season , Logano have compiled 7.0 average finish , 1.5 average start , 131 laps led, 6.0 average running position and 114.8 driver rating. Logano seems to start off great , but then slowly fall back.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon in my opinion still isn't a legit option on Intermediate racetracks. I haven't been impressive! At 1.5 mile tracks, he compiled an 29.5 average finish , 18.0 average start , 0 laps led , 17.0 average running position and 73.4 driver rating. Even at Fontana (larger Intermediate track) , Gordon arguably had his best race of the three. Didn't have any setbacks , but still didn't standout. In that race he finished 10th , had 12.0 average running position , 3 laps led and 90.8 driver. His overall performance on the Intermediate this season should tell you a lot how he could perform on Saturday night. Over the past 4 Texas Races , JG have held an 26.7 average finish , 104 laps led, 12.3 average running position and 98.4 driver ratimg. 3 Of his past 4 Texas races have ended outside the top 25. 6 Of his past 10 Texas races have ended outside the top 20. In 28 career starts , Gordon holds an 17.6 average finish. 15 Times he have finished 15th or better. 8 Of those finishes have ended inside the top 5.
27-Paul Menard: I don't know why , but Menard always seems to run well early in the season. Then just when we starting to feel good , he goes cold in the summer. I like but don't love Menard this week. I say he an solid top 15 option. Over the past 4 races at Texas , Menard have compiled 14.5 average finish , 0 laps led , 14.3 average running position and 81.7 driver rating. He been very reliable at Texas since joining RCR in 2011. In 8 races , Menard have finished 7 of 8 inside the top 18. Including 4 finishes of 15th or better. 2 Of those 4 finishes ended in a top 10 result. Ironically both those top 10s came in a spring race. Good sign , huh? In 17 career starts , Menard holds an 19.7 average finish. Only 3 Top 10s , but 12 times he have finished 22nd or better. Including 7 finishes of 15th or better. 2 Of the past 3 races have ended inside the top 15. At 1.5 mile tracks this season , Menard have compiled 12.5 average finish , 0 laps led , 17.0 average running position and 79.9 driver rating. I think he worthy of a roster spot on any team , but I don't think he's an game-changing option.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman was hit super hard in the off week by Nascar. Over the past 4 races at Texas , Newman have held an 12.5 average finish , 5 laps led , 13.5 average running position and 89.9 driver rating. Nothing impressive , but last fall was very misleading though. In that event he held an 7.0 average running position and 102.2 driver rating. I believe Newman and Kenseth slapped each other on a late restart which derailed both of those performances & final finish positions. Newman came across the line in 15th. In 23 career starts , Newman holds an 18.9 average finish. 15 Times he have finished 20th or better. But only 3 Top 10s , including a win in his 2nd start back in 2003. Newman have many Top 5s (3) as he does DNFs (3). At 1.5 mile tracks this season , Newman have compiled 6.5 average finish , 7.0 average start , 14 laps led , 9.5 average running position and 98.7 driver rating. Newman probably a decent top 15 option , but lacks upside though.
41-Kurt Busch: There isn't a whole lot to go with besides track history. Mainly because he didn't race at Atlanta or Las Vegas. At Fontana , Busch had the best car and finish 3rd. Also its seems like Busch is using similar setups to teammate Kevin Harvick which is a good problem to have. Over the past 4 races at Texas , Busch have compiled 25.7 average finish , 15 laps led , 18.0 average running position and 80.7 driver rating. I like the speed Busch have shown this season and expect him to contend for the win.
42-Kyle Larson: After missing the Martinsville race , Larson should be extra motivated to win at Texas. Last season , Larson was stout here! In those races , he held an 6.0 average finish , 0 laps led , 11.5 average finish , and 96.6 driver rating. He was more impressive in the spring than the fall race though. In the spring race , he finished 5th with 8.0 average running position and 104.4 driver rating. Excellent performance for a rookie! At 1.5 mile track this season , Larson have compiled 17.0 average finish , 5.5 average start , 0 laps led , 11.5 average running position and 89.3 driver rating. I believe Larson about to go off within the next 5 to 7 races. Texas is right down Larson alley.
48-Jimmie Johnson: After finishing poorly at Martinsville , Johnson will make the field pay at Texas! Johnson is the best driver at Texas and quite frankly its isn't very close. Over the past 4 races at Texas , Johnson have held an 8.3 average finish , 466 laps led , 10.3 average running position and 114.3 driver rating. His stats should be even better if Dale Jr didn't wreck in front of Johnson last Spring. He easily had one of the best cars all that weekend. In the fall , he came back and dominated his way to another Texas win. In 23 career starts , Johnson have an 9.09 average finish. 17 times Johnson have finished inside the top 10 (4 wins and 11 Top 5s). 4 Of the past 6 races at Texas , Johnson have finished either 1st or 2nd. He also have 3 wins in past 5 starts. Johnson haven't ever won in the spring , despite being close several times. At 1.5 mile tracks this season ,Johnson have compiled 21.0 average finish , 14.0 average running position , 137 laps led and 110.4 driver rating. His stats are very misleading though. He won at Atlanta while flat out being better than the series-hottest driver Harvick. Its was impressive to watch to say the least. Harvick had a very fast car. At Las Vegas , Johnson arguably had the car to beat , but lost a wheel after a pitstop which led other problems. He was much better than his stats suggests. Johnson is on my short-list of potential winners.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex have 6 Top 10s in 6 races , now that impressive. The big question is: when will Martin finally come back down to earth? I don't think it anytime soon. Few years ago at Texas back with MWR , MTjr had one of the more impressive performances here. Had the car to beat , but was beaten by Kyle Busch on a late-short restart. That remains his best race at Texas. Last season he was able to sweep the top 20. Over the past 4 races at Texas , Truex have held an 13.3 average finish , 142 laps led , 11.3 average running position and 94.4 driver rating. Its hard to judge a driver by past track history. This season he been stout on this type track. At Atlanta he finished 6th and posted an 6.0 average running position. At Vegas he was even better and finished 2nd. Need more convincing? At Fontana he finished 8th. Tough to argue how fast he been this season. I say run 'em , while they're hot. Truex is a firecrack.
88-Dale Jr: Earnhardt Jr have been off to a up and down start to the 2015 season. The one consistent? His stats at 1.5 mile tracks have stood out. Outside of Harvick , Dale Jr realistically been the best driver. He have compiled an 3.5 average finish , 3.5 average running position , 5 laps led and 122.6 driver rating. At Fontana , he finished 6th. Honestly looking at Dale Jr track record , he been pretty unreliable in the past two spring races. He have finishes of 29th and 43rd. Even though I believe that irreverent. I think Dale Jr will make a decent top 10 option at Texas.
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
