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We are headed to Charlotte Motor Speedway which is the site of the 4th race of the 2015 Chase! Charlotte is an 1.5 mile racetrack located in Concord, North Carolina. Most teams are based in Concord, so we can expect for these teams to try just a little harder than normal. Considering they will have friends and families in attendance. Not to mention there is a auto-bid to the next round on the line!
When studying for Charlotte this week, you would want to look at similar racetracks. We have a bunch of data for this type track. High-speed intermediate racetracks are the most common type track on the schedule, so there should be no excuse to have a poor fantasy lineup. As we have a very good idea who will be fast and will not! Also we should take momentum into consideration as well. Even though it doesn't matter much, we saw that last week at Dover in Kevin Harvick!
Let get started!
1-Jamie Mac: JMac came up short from advancing after Dover, but I felt like he had his best race of the chase. Even though he probably put in a little extra effort in, with hopes to advance. Charlotte at times been a very good track for him. Earlier this season I felt like both the CGR cars missed the setup at Charlotte! JMac finished 19th which was much better than he ran most of the night. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 13.0 average finish, 20.0 average start, 14.6 average running position and 85.7 driver rating. Good chunk of those stats came from last season where he finished 3rd and 5th respectfully. He been fast on the 1.5 mile racetracks this season as well, but he have slowed down in second half of the season though. On similar tracks (minus Atlanta), he have put together 13.2 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 82.0 driver rating. I expect another top 15 run from JMac this week at Charlotte!
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is coming off one of his worst races of the 2015 season! I figured he would be better at Dover than he was. In fact neither of the Penske cars showed too much overall. I expect both of them to rebound though. Charlotte is a good track for Keseowski. Over the past 5 races here, he compiled 14.0 average finish, 13.6 average start, 11.6 average running position and 94.8 driver rating. Earlier this season he finished 7th, but wasn't much of a factor in the closing laps. He been one of the most consistent drivers on the 1.5 mile tracks this season as well. On similar tracks, he have put together 7.0 average finish with 8.1 average running position and 107.3 driver rating. Want to hear an amazing stat? In 7 races on the 1.5 mile high-speed intermeaite racetracks, BK only have one top 10 finish. The other six races have ended in 6th-9th. It kinda kills his value in my opinion. I think I have I mentioned that several times this season. However if you looking for nice safe top 10 option, then I think you have found your man!
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is still inconsistent at this stage of his career. He lacks the top 10 potential on a weekly basis which makes him a afterthought when making our lineups, unless you are in a deeper format. Charlotte is a very good track for him in his young Cup career though. In 3 career races, he have put together 15.0 average finish, 21.0 average start, 15.3 average running position and 79.2 driver rating. In those 3 races, his worst career finish have been 16th. Look at his stats, I am pretty impressed by his 15.3 average running position. Back in May, he was real strong for his standards! He started 11th, finished 16th, held 12.0 average running position and complete 95% of all the laps inside the top 15. He was one of eight drivers to accomplish this feat. If you are looking for a legitmate sleeper, then Dillon should be a great option for your lineup!
4-Kevin Harvick: The champ proved why he is the defending champ! I was impressed! Soon as I saw him fly from 15th to 5th within about 7 laps, I knew he was gonna dominate. Heck most of us knew it in practice to, but unlike other weeks he didn't mess up in the end. He goes to another strong track in Charlotte! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 3.8 average finish, 8.6 average start, 6.6 average running position and 120.0 driver rating. Only twice in that 5-race span have he finished worse than 2nd and that was back in May's race and again back in October 2013. Overall he have wheeled off 5 straight top 9 finishes, including 2 wins! On similar tracks (minus Chicagoland), he have put together 4.0 average finish with 4.3 average running position and 125.6 driver rating. He will likely have the car to beat and is my pick to win this weekend!
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey Kahne had one of his best races of the 2015 season in my opinion. It was the best he looked since Atlanta or Vegas early in the season. Maybe the 5 team is onto something with back-to-back top 10 runs! Guess how good he is at Charlotte? He very good here, I would go far as one of the best over the past 5-6 seasons. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 8.0 average finish, 13.2 average start, 10.8 average running position and 106.9 driver rating. Over the past 15 races at Charlotte, he have finished 13 of the 15 races inside the top 14. Including 8 straight races of 14th or better! This is Kasey's best racetrack and his 4 wins can back that up as well. On similar tracks (minus Kentucky), he have put together 15.3 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 94.7 driver rating. Earlier this season at Charlotte, he finished 12th. Even though he wasn't much of factor during majority of the race. I think he grabs another top 10 finish or at worst top 15 finish!
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick is coming off an 21st place run at Dover and she really ended that! After a terrible wreck at New Hampshire, she needed something good to happen for her and that exactly what happened. Charlotte have been a hit and miss track for Danica overall in her career so far! For Danica a good finish is somewhere from 20th-25th on most weekends. She have finished 22nd and 20th in her past two starts and that exactly where you can expect her to finish once again this weekend. The high-speed intermediate tracks this season have been decent for Danica. She have put together 24.0 average finish with 23.0 average running position and 61.8 driver rating. The numbers says Danica should finish somewhere in the low to mid 20s.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin comes to Charlotte with a little chip on his shoulders. Obvously Dover didn't go the way he wanted, but he will have a good chance to rebound though. The JGR cars been fast everywhere for nearly 3 months now, so I expect them all to show up in the contender round. Charlotte is a good place for Denny! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 10.4 average finish, 6.6 average start, 10.2 average running position and 99.2 driver rating. Earlier this season, he was pretty good but faded in the latter parts of the race. He led 53 laps on his way to a 8th place finish. 9 of the past 10 races here have ended inside the top 10 for Hamlin. He should be good for another top 10 finish once again this weekend!
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch is having a pretty good chase and is looking like the best JGR car overall so far. Even though the results don't show it. At Charlotte, you can expect Kyle to be a safe fantasy option for your lineup! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 13.6 average finish, 8.4 average start, 9.8 average running position and 103.5 driver rating. Busch was very strong back in May where he made his season's debut! Before it turned into a fuel mileage race, he easily had a top 5 car and probably would have challenged for the win. He been stout on 1.5 mile racetracks this season! He had a top 5-ish car at Charlotte before it turned into a fuel mileage race. He won at Kentucky in dominating fashion. He dominated Chicagoland, before having a terrible final restart. He have a smaller sample size than most, but he been effective when he have raced this season! I think Busch is a top 5 threat and could challenge for his first chase win.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards won earlier this season at Charlotte, but he would not have won without fuel mileage. His crew planned perfected and had a lot of things go their way. I don't think that happen again, but they have the speed to win instead. All of the JGR cars have proven why they belong in the chase and quite frankly I think they all can make it past this round. Edwards been strong at Charlotte in the past, so no reason to think that will change now. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 6.8 average finish, 12.6 average start, 11.2 average running position and 94.8 driver rating. Edwards is currently on a 8-race top 10 streak at Charlotte! He have showed promise on the other 1.5 mile tracks this season as well. On similar tracks, he have put together 13.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 97.3 driver rating. I think he extend that top 10 streak to 9 straight!
20-Matt Kenseth: I think a lot of times Kenseth get overlooked because of his teammates usually get into the spotlight! He is really a very underrated fantasy option on a weekly basis and I think that could be a big mistake this week. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 8.8 average finish, 11.6 average start, 9.6 average running position and 99.5 driver rating. He been very strong over the past 15 races. In that 15-race span, he have strung together 11 Top 10 finishes. Including 3 Top 5 finishes his past 4 starts. He finished 4th earlier this season, but I think he is much better than he was than. He been a consistent finisher this season on similar tracks. He have put together 8.1 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 93.8 driver rating. Like his teammates I expect him to be a top 10 driver!
22-Joey Logano: If you follow my post this season, then you know I love praising Logano and for good reason! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 10.4 average finish, 13.2 average start, 11.8 average running position and 91.4 driver rating. He been very consistent this season as he is only 2nd to Harvick for the most top 5 finishes (17) and tied for the most top 10 finishes (23). Which to nobody surprise, he been one of the strongest drivers on the 1.5 mile racetracks. He have strung together 6.3 average finish, 2.6 average start, 6.0 average running position and 112.8 driver rating. He is one of the safest fantasy picks this week, as this is a very good track for him!
24-Jeff Gordon:Gordon barely made it out of the first round of chase, but now he have a clean slate heading into Charlotte! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 13.2 average finish, 12.4 average start, 8.8 average running position and 103.5 driver rating. He finished 2nd in this race last season, but he didn't fair quite so well back in May. He finished 15th, but he wasn't very impressive in that race. He struggled overall and had a mid-teen type car. That what he been most of the season, but he showed improvements much like his teammates have! I think Gordon will finish inside the top 12 this week, maybe top 10 too.
27-Paul Menard: Menard have became one of the more inconsistent fantasy options (As I said he would back in the offseason.) He was solid back in May, but I don't think he will be able to back it up. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 20.2 average finish, 17.0 average start, 19.8 average running position and 76.2 driver rating. He started the season off well, but he have lately been nothing more than a top 20 finisher and I think that the most you can expect out him this weekend.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch looked unstoppable at Chicagoland, but his finishes of 17th and 19th tells a whole different story at Dover and New Hampshire. However he was fast in both of those races, but late races problems ruined what could have been excellent point days. He been decent at Charlotte! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 15.6 average finish, 13.0 average start, 10.2 average running position and 99.6 driver rating. He finished 10th back in May and was very strong while leading 118 laps in the process. He like teammate Kurt Busch was hurt by fuel mileage strategy.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson have been one of the most consistent drivers since Indianapolis! So in the past 10 Cup races (dating back to Indy), he have finished 12th or better in 7 races. Only twice have he finished outside of the top 15. He been solid at Charlotte, so far in his career. In 4 career starts, he have compiled 21.5 average finish, 19.8 average start, 18.0 average running position and 77.2 driver rating. Last season he finished 18th and 6th. Earlier this season he finished 25th. As I said earlier about JMac, I thought both of CGR cars missed their race setups. I think Larson have the potential to run very well!
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is coming off maybe his most regrettable performance of his career. At a track where he been money for years, but couldn't deliver when it mattered most! He could be under the radar at one of his best track and personally I am counting on that! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 16.8 average finish, 10.2 average start, 9.8 average running position and 103.0 driver rating. Johnson obviously have been inconsistent with his finishes at Charlotte, but I think he will be worth consideration to most fantasy teams.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr didn't have a great finish in any of three races of the first round of the chase, however he didn't have a bad finish either! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish, 16.4 average start, 10.6 average running position and 95.3 driver rating. He was very strong earlier this season where he finished 5th while leading 131 laps. He been solid on the 1.5 mile racetracks as well. He have put together 8.7 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 112.5 driver rating. I don't know if he live up to those stats, but I wouldn't shocked either though.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr had one of his most impressive runs of the 2015 season at Dover, but like JMac I am guessing he tried extra hard to run well! It paid off as well! He now goes to Charlotte where he have been inconsistent lately. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 19.2 average finish, 10.2 average start, 12.6 average running position and 93.1 driver rating. He finished 3rd earlier this season, but that his only his 4th top 10 finish over his past 14 starts since joining HMS back in 2008. So he have struggled to find production! I don't know if that will change this week, but I am very interested to find out. One thing for sure, he cannot get in a hole like he did in the last round or he could be looking at a early exit in the contender round!
***All Stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
We are headed to Charlotte Motor Speedway which is the site of the 4th race of the 2015 Chase! Charlotte is an 1.5 mile racetrack located in Concord, North Carolina. Most teams are based in Concord, so we can expect for these teams to try just a little harder than normal. Considering they will have friends and families in attendance. Not to mention there is a auto-bid to the next round on the line!
When studying for Charlotte this week, you would want to look at similar racetracks. We have a bunch of data for this type track. High-speed intermediate racetracks are the most common type track on the schedule, so there should be no excuse to have a poor fantasy lineup. As we have a very good idea who will be fast and will not! Also we should take momentum into consideration as well. Even though it doesn't matter much, we saw that last week at Dover in Kevin Harvick!
Let get started!
1-Jamie Mac: JMac came up short from advancing after Dover, but I felt like he had his best race of the chase. Even though he probably put in a little extra effort in, with hopes to advance. Charlotte at times been a very good track for him. Earlier this season I felt like both the CGR cars missed the setup at Charlotte! JMac finished 19th which was much better than he ran most of the night. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 13.0 average finish, 20.0 average start, 14.6 average running position and 85.7 driver rating. Good chunk of those stats came from last season where he finished 3rd and 5th respectfully. He been fast on the 1.5 mile racetracks this season as well, but he have slowed down in second half of the season though. On similar tracks (minus Atlanta), he have put together 13.2 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 82.0 driver rating. I expect another top 15 run from JMac this week at Charlotte!
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is coming off one of his worst races of the 2015 season! I figured he would be better at Dover than he was. In fact neither of the Penske cars showed too much overall. I expect both of them to rebound though. Charlotte is a good track for Keseowski. Over the past 5 races here, he compiled 14.0 average finish, 13.6 average start, 11.6 average running position and 94.8 driver rating. Earlier this season he finished 7th, but wasn't much of a factor in the closing laps. He been one of the most consistent drivers on the 1.5 mile tracks this season as well. On similar tracks, he have put together 7.0 average finish with 8.1 average running position and 107.3 driver rating. Want to hear an amazing stat? In 7 races on the 1.5 mile high-speed intermeaite racetracks, BK only have one top 10 finish. The other six races have ended in 6th-9th. It kinda kills his value in my opinion. I think I have I mentioned that several times this season. However if you looking for nice safe top 10 option, then I think you have found your man!
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is still inconsistent at this stage of his career. He lacks the top 10 potential on a weekly basis which makes him a afterthought when making our lineups, unless you are in a deeper format. Charlotte is a very good track for him in his young Cup career though. In 3 career races, he have put together 15.0 average finish, 21.0 average start, 15.3 average running position and 79.2 driver rating. In those 3 races, his worst career finish have been 16th. Look at his stats, I am pretty impressed by his 15.3 average running position. Back in May, he was real strong for his standards! He started 11th, finished 16th, held 12.0 average running position and complete 95% of all the laps inside the top 15. He was one of eight drivers to accomplish this feat. If you are looking for a legitmate sleeper, then Dillon should be a great option for your lineup!
4-Kevin Harvick: The champ proved why he is the defending champ! I was impressed! Soon as I saw him fly from 15th to 5th within about 7 laps, I knew he was gonna dominate. Heck most of us knew it in practice to, but unlike other weeks he didn't mess up in the end. He goes to another strong track in Charlotte! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 3.8 average finish, 8.6 average start, 6.6 average running position and 120.0 driver rating. Only twice in that 5-race span have he finished worse than 2nd and that was back in May's race and again back in October 2013. Overall he have wheeled off 5 straight top 9 finishes, including 2 wins! On similar tracks (minus Chicagoland), he have put together 4.0 average finish with 4.3 average running position and 125.6 driver rating. He will likely have the car to beat and is my pick to win this weekend!
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey Kahne had one of his best races of the 2015 season in my opinion. It was the best he looked since Atlanta or Vegas early in the season. Maybe the 5 team is onto something with back-to-back top 10 runs! Guess how good he is at Charlotte? He very good here, I would go far as one of the best over the past 5-6 seasons. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 8.0 average finish, 13.2 average start, 10.8 average running position and 106.9 driver rating. Over the past 15 races at Charlotte, he have finished 13 of the 15 races inside the top 14. Including 8 straight races of 14th or better! This is Kasey's best racetrack and his 4 wins can back that up as well. On similar tracks (minus Kentucky), he have put together 15.3 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 94.7 driver rating. Earlier this season at Charlotte, he finished 12th. Even though he wasn't much of factor during majority of the race. I think he grabs another top 10 finish or at worst top 15 finish!
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick is coming off an 21st place run at Dover and she really ended that! After a terrible wreck at New Hampshire, she needed something good to happen for her and that exactly what happened. Charlotte have been a hit and miss track for Danica overall in her career so far! For Danica a good finish is somewhere from 20th-25th on most weekends. She have finished 22nd and 20th in her past two starts and that exactly where you can expect her to finish once again this weekend. The high-speed intermediate tracks this season have been decent for Danica. She have put together 24.0 average finish with 23.0 average running position and 61.8 driver rating. The numbers says Danica should finish somewhere in the low to mid 20s.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin comes to Charlotte with a little chip on his shoulders. Obvously Dover didn't go the way he wanted, but he will have a good chance to rebound though. The JGR cars been fast everywhere for nearly 3 months now, so I expect them all to show up in the contender round. Charlotte is a good place for Denny! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 10.4 average finish, 6.6 average start, 10.2 average running position and 99.2 driver rating. Earlier this season, he was pretty good but faded in the latter parts of the race. He led 53 laps on his way to a 8th place finish. 9 of the past 10 races here have ended inside the top 10 for Hamlin. He should be good for another top 10 finish once again this weekend!
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch is having a pretty good chase and is looking like the best JGR car overall so far. Even though the results don't show it. At Charlotte, you can expect Kyle to be a safe fantasy option for your lineup! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 13.6 average finish, 8.4 average start, 9.8 average running position and 103.5 driver rating. Busch was very strong back in May where he made his season's debut! Before it turned into a fuel mileage race, he easily had a top 5 car and probably would have challenged for the win. He been stout on 1.5 mile racetracks this season! He had a top 5-ish car at Charlotte before it turned into a fuel mileage race. He won at Kentucky in dominating fashion. He dominated Chicagoland, before having a terrible final restart. He have a smaller sample size than most, but he been effective when he have raced this season! I think Busch is a top 5 threat and could challenge for his first chase win.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards won earlier this season at Charlotte, but he would not have won without fuel mileage. His crew planned perfected and had a lot of things go their way. I don't think that happen again, but they have the speed to win instead. All of the JGR cars have proven why they belong in the chase and quite frankly I think they all can make it past this round. Edwards been strong at Charlotte in the past, so no reason to think that will change now. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 6.8 average finish, 12.6 average start, 11.2 average running position and 94.8 driver rating. Edwards is currently on a 8-race top 10 streak at Charlotte! He have showed promise on the other 1.5 mile tracks this season as well. On similar tracks, he have put together 13.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 97.3 driver rating. I think he extend that top 10 streak to 9 straight!
20-Matt Kenseth: I think a lot of times Kenseth get overlooked because of his teammates usually get into the spotlight! He is really a very underrated fantasy option on a weekly basis and I think that could be a big mistake this week. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 8.8 average finish, 11.6 average start, 9.6 average running position and 99.5 driver rating. He been very strong over the past 15 races. In that 15-race span, he have strung together 11 Top 10 finishes. Including 3 Top 5 finishes his past 4 starts. He finished 4th earlier this season, but I think he is much better than he was than. He been a consistent finisher this season on similar tracks. He have put together 8.1 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 93.8 driver rating. Like his teammates I expect him to be a top 10 driver!
22-Joey Logano: If you follow my post this season, then you know I love praising Logano and for good reason! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 10.4 average finish, 13.2 average start, 11.8 average running position and 91.4 driver rating. He been very consistent this season as he is only 2nd to Harvick for the most top 5 finishes (17) and tied for the most top 10 finishes (23). Which to nobody surprise, he been one of the strongest drivers on the 1.5 mile racetracks. He have strung together 6.3 average finish, 2.6 average start, 6.0 average running position and 112.8 driver rating. He is one of the safest fantasy picks this week, as this is a very good track for him!
24-Jeff Gordon:Gordon barely made it out of the first round of chase, but now he have a clean slate heading into Charlotte! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 13.2 average finish, 12.4 average start, 8.8 average running position and 103.5 driver rating. He finished 2nd in this race last season, but he didn't fair quite so well back in May. He finished 15th, but he wasn't very impressive in that race. He struggled overall and had a mid-teen type car. That what he been most of the season, but he showed improvements much like his teammates have! I think Gordon will finish inside the top 12 this week, maybe top 10 too.
27-Paul Menard: Menard have became one of the more inconsistent fantasy options (As I said he would back in the offseason.) He was solid back in May, but I don't think he will be able to back it up. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 20.2 average finish, 17.0 average start, 19.8 average running position and 76.2 driver rating. He started the season off well, but he have lately been nothing more than a top 20 finisher and I think that the most you can expect out him this weekend.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch looked unstoppable at Chicagoland, but his finishes of 17th and 19th tells a whole different story at Dover and New Hampshire. However he was fast in both of those races, but late races problems ruined what could have been excellent point days. He been decent at Charlotte! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 15.6 average finish, 13.0 average start, 10.2 average running position and 99.6 driver rating. He finished 10th back in May and was very strong while leading 118 laps in the process. He like teammate Kurt Busch was hurt by fuel mileage strategy.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson have been one of the most consistent drivers since Indianapolis! So in the past 10 Cup races (dating back to Indy), he have finished 12th or better in 7 races. Only twice have he finished outside of the top 15. He been solid at Charlotte, so far in his career. In 4 career starts, he have compiled 21.5 average finish, 19.8 average start, 18.0 average running position and 77.2 driver rating. Last season he finished 18th and 6th. Earlier this season he finished 25th. As I said earlier about JMac, I thought both of CGR cars missed their race setups. I think Larson have the potential to run very well!
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is coming off maybe his most regrettable performance of his career. At a track where he been money for years, but couldn't deliver when it mattered most! He could be under the radar at one of his best track and personally I am counting on that! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 16.8 average finish, 10.2 average start, 9.8 average running position and 103.0 driver rating. Johnson obviously have been inconsistent with his finishes at Charlotte, but I think he will be worth consideration to most fantasy teams.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr didn't have a great finish in any of three races of the first round of the chase, however he didn't have a bad finish either! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish, 16.4 average start, 10.6 average running position and 95.3 driver rating. He was very strong earlier this season where he finished 5th while leading 131 laps. He been solid on the 1.5 mile racetracks as well. He have put together 8.7 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 112.5 driver rating. I don't know if he live up to those stats, but I wouldn't shocked either though.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr had one of his most impressive runs of the 2015 season at Dover, but like JMac I am guessing he tried extra hard to run well! It paid off as well! He now goes to Charlotte where he have been inconsistent lately. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 19.2 average finish, 10.2 average start, 12.6 average running position and 93.1 driver rating. He finished 3rd earlier this season, but that his only his 4th top 10 finish over his past 14 starts since joining HMS back in 2008. So he have struggled to find production! I don't know if that will change this week, but I am very interested to find out. One thing for sure, he cannot get in a hole like he did in the last round or he could be looking at a early exit in the contender round!
***All Stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
