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We are at Kansas Speedway this weekend for the 5th race of the chase and the 2nd race of the eliminator round. Track position will be huge all day long and teams will be trying various pit strategies to position their drivers for the race win. To win Sunday race, you will have be able to pass cars and stay near the front and not make any critical mistakes. Also remember drivers who have started up front have more commonly gone to victory lane. Considering no driver have won from outside of the top 15 since the repave. I was listening to MRN on Saturday and they said something very interesting about 28 DNFs since the repave in 2012. That is just ridiculous in my opinion. On average that's like 4.5 DNFs per race. Crazy, right? Alright let get started!
A:
1. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski simply have had the best car in everything we have seen this weekend. Frankly I rarely rank Keselowski high this season, unless he looks stout and he was very strong since unloading. He will roll off from the number 1 starting position and could easily find himself in victory lane on Sunday. My only concern is he haven't finish in the top 5 much this season and more times than not he have let good opportunities slip away. Think back to New Hampshire just a few weeks ago. He had a top 3 car, but a questionable call by Nascar costed him. However I am not too worried about the past as he have the best car headed into Sunday's race.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Joey Logano - Logano wasn't great on Friday, as I am pretty sure he was working on his car for the race. It paid off on Saturday, as he was bad fast in both practices. When Logano is near top of the charts in practice, then the field is already in huge trouble. His qualifying position isn't anything to smile about, but make no mistake he will be a serious contender on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked to see him in victory lane and quite frankly it shouldn't shock anyone either. I thought Logano was one of the best drivers on the long runs and we usually see a few of them at Kansas. I think he is a top 5 driver headed into the race.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Matt Kenseth - Kesneth will roll off from 11th, but he have shown plenty of speed this weekend though. I thought he struggled on Friday for most of the lone session, but then they hit on something. I am not sure what but it definitely helped Kenseth out. He went out and qualified 11th and came back on Saturday with more speed to back it up. This have been a very good track for Matt and I expect it to bring good things to the 20 team. He have been one of the few drivers who have constantly gotten solid finishes since the repave. This track is a new animal since the track was redone and he obviously have tamed it. I think Kenseth finishes inside the top 5, but I don't think that will be enough for him to be in a good situation heading into Talladega though.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Kevin Harvick - Harvick starts from 4th, he struggled all weekend to find speed. I wouldn't say he had a terrible car on Saturday, but it was obvious that he wasn't completely happy with his car. Now there probably a major different in what most driver consider happy and what Kevin considers happy. I am not too worried about Kevin though. The 4 team have proven they can fix Kevin up. Heading into the race, I think he is easily a top 10 driver. He more likely a top 5 driver. He posted the 6th-best ten lap average in final practice.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
5. Denny Hamlin - It was down to Jimmie Johnson or Denny Hamlin, I went with Hamlin because I trust him more, even though Johnson may have been a little better overall. For me, Hamlin also have performed better so far in the chase. He also have a pretty solid long run car as well. He been near top of the charts in every sessions this weekend and also posted strong best 10-lap averages in both practices on Saturday. I don't think Hamlin will be able to win on Sunday, but I think he is easily a top 10 driver headed into the race. With that said, you could probably expect him to sneak into the top 5 before the checkers wave too. That been the common trend lately for him. 4 chase races with 3 top 4 finishes.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
Other Options - Jimmie Johnson (7th), Dale Jr (9th), Jeff Gordon(10th), Kyle Busch (11th) and Ryan Newman (13th)
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Edwards is by default the top pick in this tier, but I thought he struggled on Saturday in practice 1 and that's concerning to me. He complained about ill-handling racecar! However he starts from 2nd and will have the best pit box in the field. In final practice, he was much better and should be able to contend for a top 10 finish. Can he contend for a top 5 is the big question on many people minds and honestly I don't really know. He have the track position to start and I am sure he will be able to stay in the top 10 and maybe contend for a top 5 finish.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex is at his best racetrack and we all can expect him to have something extra to prove. Earlier this season, he had the best car at Kansas but a late race mistake costed him a win. Truex been pretty happy with his car all weekend long and should be a contender on Sunday. Personally I think he least finishes in the top 10, even though I think he will finishes closer to the front than that. I have him across the line in 8th, but like I said I think he outrun that projected ranking.
My Overall Ranking: 8th
3. Kurt Busch - I haven't really been on the Kurt Busch bandwagon this week, as you could see if you checked out my preview on Monday. I just don't have that ''feeling'' like I had last week at Charlotte. His lack of a solid track record stands out to me with only 5 top 10 finishes to his name in 19 career starts. That not really a concern to me though. He just haven't shown the speed, I wanted to see out of him either. He had good speed, but just good speed isn't exactly what I went from him. Add in , he been inconsistent this season, you start to understand my dislike for Kurt this week. He probably have a top 10 car, but don't be shocked to see him finish in the teens. Afterall majoirty of his finishes at Kansas have ended in 11th-18th. In fact, 7 of his 19 finishes have ended in that finish place range!
My Overall Ranking: 12th
4. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson haven't really impressed me like I was expecting, but I think he can drive through the field. I don't believe he is a top 10 driver, but the 42 car been fast enough to contend for a top 15 finish though. A lot lately we have seen Larson start around 20th and be able to contend for a top 12 finish. I think Larson will fall off most people radars due his mid-pack starting position. Personally I like it when he starts from mid-pack, as I view it as additional value. I have him across the line in 14th. However I can see him finishing closer to the top 10 though.
My Overall Ranking: 14th
5. Paul Menard - As inconsistent as he been over the past few months, I find it very hard to overlook Menard though. He qualified 13th and have shown speed in every practice session. He was fast in final practice, despite have a early problem with his car. I really like him for Sunday race and that is surprising to be honest, as I usually try to avoid him at this point in the season. He been very successful at Kansas since the repave as well. In the past 6 races, he have 4 top 10. 3 of those top 10 have came in the past three Fall races at Kansas. In fact since 2010, his worst finish is 12th in the fall race at Kansas.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
Other Options - Kasey Kahne (16th), Aric Almirola (17th), Ricky Stenhouse Jr (18th) and Clint Bowyer (19th)
C:
1. Ryan Blaney - Blaney been fast all weekend long and is the best driver in this tier of drivers. He qualified 8th and showed speed in every practice session. He wasn't quite that good in final practice, but he is someone to watch out for though. I think he is a top 20 driver heading into the race and could be more than that if everything go according to plan.
My Overall Ranking: 20th
2. David Ragan - Ragan have struggled all weekend and really haven't shown me much on this type of racetrack this season. He have struggled to finish on the 1.5 milers this season and that not exactly something I would feel good about in a fantasy pick. He qualified 22nd and practiced somewhere around there as well. At end of final practice, he was complaining about being way too tight.
My Overall Ranking: 24th
3. Danica Patrick - Patrick qualified Just inside of the top 30 and ran somewhere around there most of Saturday's practices. Obviously she haven't been very good this weekend. Like most weekends, she seems to get better during the race. I expect that will be the case this weekend as well. Not much to say about Danica as I haven't really paid much attention to her at all. I say a top 25 would be the best possible outcome for her.
My Overall Ranking: 27th
Twitter - @JeffNathans
We are at Kansas Speedway this weekend for the 5th race of the chase and the 2nd race of the eliminator round. Track position will be huge all day long and teams will be trying various pit strategies to position their drivers for the race win. To win Sunday race, you will have be able to pass cars and stay near the front and not make any critical mistakes. Also remember drivers who have started up front have more commonly gone to victory lane. Considering no driver have won from outside of the top 15 since the repave. I was listening to MRN on Saturday and they said something very interesting about 28 DNFs since the repave in 2012. That is just ridiculous in my opinion. On average that's like 4.5 DNFs per race. Crazy, right? Alright let get started!
A:
1. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski simply have had the best car in everything we have seen this weekend. Frankly I rarely rank Keselowski high this season, unless he looks stout and he was very strong since unloading. He will roll off from the number 1 starting position and could easily find himself in victory lane on Sunday. My only concern is he haven't finish in the top 5 much this season and more times than not he have let good opportunities slip away. Think back to New Hampshire just a few weeks ago. He had a top 3 car, but a questionable call by Nascar costed him. However I am not too worried about the past as he have the best car headed into Sunday's race.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Joey Logano - Logano wasn't great on Friday, as I am pretty sure he was working on his car for the race. It paid off on Saturday, as he was bad fast in both practices. When Logano is near top of the charts in practice, then the field is already in huge trouble. His qualifying position isn't anything to smile about, but make no mistake he will be a serious contender on Sunday. I wouldn't be shocked to see him in victory lane and quite frankly it shouldn't shock anyone either. I thought Logano was one of the best drivers on the long runs and we usually see a few of them at Kansas. I think he is a top 5 driver headed into the race.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Matt Kenseth - Kesneth will roll off from 11th, but he have shown plenty of speed this weekend though. I thought he struggled on Friday for most of the lone session, but then they hit on something. I am not sure what but it definitely helped Kenseth out. He went out and qualified 11th and came back on Saturday with more speed to back it up. This have been a very good track for Matt and I expect it to bring good things to the 20 team. He have been one of the few drivers who have constantly gotten solid finishes since the repave. This track is a new animal since the track was redone and he obviously have tamed it. I think Kenseth finishes inside the top 5, but I don't think that will be enough for him to be in a good situation heading into Talladega though.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Kevin Harvick - Harvick starts from 4th, he struggled all weekend to find speed. I wouldn't say he had a terrible car on Saturday, but it was obvious that he wasn't completely happy with his car. Now there probably a major different in what most driver consider happy and what Kevin considers happy. I am not too worried about Kevin though. The 4 team have proven they can fix Kevin up. Heading into the race, I think he is easily a top 10 driver. He more likely a top 5 driver. He posted the 6th-best ten lap average in final practice.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
5. Denny Hamlin - It was down to Jimmie Johnson or Denny Hamlin, I went with Hamlin because I trust him more, even though Johnson may have been a little better overall. For me, Hamlin also have performed better so far in the chase. He also have a pretty solid long run car as well. He been near top of the charts in every sessions this weekend and also posted strong best 10-lap averages in both practices on Saturday. I don't think Hamlin will be able to win on Sunday, but I think he is easily a top 10 driver headed into the race. With that said, you could probably expect him to sneak into the top 5 before the checkers wave too. That been the common trend lately for him. 4 chase races with 3 top 4 finishes.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
Other Options - Jimmie Johnson (7th), Dale Jr (9th), Jeff Gordon(10th), Kyle Busch (11th) and Ryan Newman (13th)
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Edwards is by default the top pick in this tier, but I thought he struggled on Saturday in practice 1 and that's concerning to me. He complained about ill-handling racecar! However he starts from 2nd and will have the best pit box in the field. In final practice, he was much better and should be able to contend for a top 10 finish. Can he contend for a top 5 is the big question on many people minds and honestly I don't really know. He have the track position to start and I am sure he will be able to stay in the top 10 and maybe contend for a top 5 finish.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex is at his best racetrack and we all can expect him to have something extra to prove. Earlier this season, he had the best car at Kansas but a late race mistake costed him a win. Truex been pretty happy with his car all weekend long and should be a contender on Sunday. Personally I think he least finishes in the top 10, even though I think he will finishes closer to the front than that. I have him across the line in 8th, but like I said I think he outrun that projected ranking.
My Overall Ranking: 8th
3. Kurt Busch - I haven't really been on the Kurt Busch bandwagon this week, as you could see if you checked out my preview on Monday. I just don't have that ''feeling'' like I had last week at Charlotte. His lack of a solid track record stands out to me with only 5 top 10 finishes to his name in 19 career starts. That not really a concern to me though. He just haven't shown the speed, I wanted to see out of him either. He had good speed, but just good speed isn't exactly what I went from him. Add in , he been inconsistent this season, you start to understand my dislike for Kurt this week. He probably have a top 10 car, but don't be shocked to see him finish in the teens. Afterall majoirty of his finishes at Kansas have ended in 11th-18th. In fact, 7 of his 19 finishes have ended in that finish place range!
My Overall Ranking: 12th
4. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson haven't really impressed me like I was expecting, but I think he can drive through the field. I don't believe he is a top 10 driver, but the 42 car been fast enough to contend for a top 15 finish though. A lot lately we have seen Larson start around 20th and be able to contend for a top 12 finish. I think Larson will fall off most people radars due his mid-pack starting position. Personally I like it when he starts from mid-pack, as I view it as additional value. I have him across the line in 14th. However I can see him finishing closer to the top 10 though.
My Overall Ranking: 14th
5. Paul Menard - As inconsistent as he been over the past few months, I find it very hard to overlook Menard though. He qualified 13th and have shown speed in every practice session. He was fast in final practice, despite have a early problem with his car. I really like him for Sunday race and that is surprising to be honest, as I usually try to avoid him at this point in the season. He been very successful at Kansas since the repave as well. In the past 6 races, he have 4 top 10. 3 of those top 10 have came in the past three Fall races at Kansas. In fact since 2010, his worst finish is 12th in the fall race at Kansas.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
Other Options - Kasey Kahne (16th), Aric Almirola (17th), Ricky Stenhouse Jr (18th) and Clint Bowyer (19th)
C:
1. Ryan Blaney - Blaney been fast all weekend long and is the best driver in this tier of drivers. He qualified 8th and showed speed in every practice session. He wasn't quite that good in final practice, but he is someone to watch out for though. I think he is a top 20 driver heading into the race and could be more than that if everything go according to plan.
My Overall Ranking: 20th
2. David Ragan - Ragan have struggled all weekend and really haven't shown me much on this type of racetrack this season. He have struggled to finish on the 1.5 milers this season and that not exactly something I would feel good about in a fantasy pick. He qualified 22nd and practiced somewhere around there as well. At end of final practice, he was complaining about being way too tight.
My Overall Ranking: 24th
3. Danica Patrick - Patrick qualified Just inside of the top 30 and ran somewhere around there most of Saturday's practices. Obviously she haven't been very good this weekend. Like most weekends, she seems to get better during the race. I expect that will be the case this weekend as well. Not much to say about Danica as I haven't really paid much attention to her at all. I say a top 25 would be the best possible outcome for her.
My Overall Ranking: 27th
Twitter - @JeffNathans
