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Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: JMac had a solid race at Chicgoland and ran inside the top 10 for good part of the event, but ended in 11th when the checkers waved. Now, he moves onto a track in which has found decent success at. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 12.5 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 90.3 driver rating. Very strong overall for him, with 9.5 average finish over his past 6 races with taking out last July (2015) race out. He had a engine go south in the final laps and finished 26th. Every other finish over the past 3 seasons has been 16th or better. Including 3 Top 6 finishes in that span. 2 of those 3 top 6 finishes has ended inside the top 5. Even better? Both of those top 5 finishes has came in the chase portion of the season. Earlier this season, he finished 6th at this racetrack. He wasn't a top 10 contender for the event, but he was easily a top 15 contender though. He also has been very good on the shorter flats this season. On the flats this season, JMac has compiled 11.3 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 82.4 driver rating. The most recent short-flat racetrack was a couple weeks ago at Richmond. Both him and teammate Kyle Larson were top 10 contenders. They were better on the short runs and that really helped them at the end. Headed into the weekend, you can expect JMac to be least a top 15 contender and likely have top 10 upside. Given Ganassi continues to show the speed, they has been showing.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski started the 2016 chase off by finishing inside the top 5 at Chicgoland! Great way to start off the chase! So how will he do at New Hampshire? I think he will do extremely well and personally I have him on my short-list of drivers to win this weekend. Not only has he been fast very often this season, but his track record on New Hampshire makes him a stood out-type fantasy pick. His numbers here recently are quite impressive, he has been one of the best in the series. Over the past 4 New Hampshire races, he has compiled 9.0 average finish with 5.5 average running position and 114.9 driver rating. Keselowski has finishes of 15th and 12th over his past two races here, but they were both misleading finsihes. He ran inside the top 5, before having issues late in those races. An fun fact about him at New Hampshire? He has finished 15th or better in 10 straight races. Including 9 straight races of 12th or better, before July's misleading 15th place finish. You have to go back to July 2011 to find a finish worse than 15th place at this track. In simple terms, he's the best driver in the series at this racetrack. What makes it even more impressive? This track is known for fuel mileage and a track position battle. The fact that he has finished inside the top 15 in every race since 2011, makes it almost unbelievable. As no other driver have been able to accomplish that feat over the past 5 races.
3-Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon wasn't overly impressive at Chicagoland, but was good enough to be a top 15 contender for much of the event though. I like Dillon this weekend at New Hampshire. RCR is giving him their best cars and he should take advantage of that, too. His track record at New Hampshire isn't too bad, either. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 13.5 average finish with 18.3 average running position and 74.3 driver rating. He has been very good here in short career overall. With 4 finishes of 14th or better in 5 career starts in the #3 car. He finished 13th earlier this season and was a top 15 contender for much of the race. At times, he ran outside of the top 15, but for the most part he did what he needed to. I would say it terms of performance, he had his second-best race. Only to his second-career start back in 2014, where he finished in the 8th position. Even though, I say it wasn't too far off though. He also been very good on the shorter-flats as well. On the shorter flats this season, he has compiled 13.8 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 82.5 driver rating. Based on the numbers, season trends and logic, Dillon should be a top 15 fantasy option this weekend. He will likely be useless in deeper formats, other than Yahoo Fantasy Racing. His upside isn't appealing enough for formats which reward points in multiple categories though.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is my pick this week to win! There are a lot of things to really like about him at New Hampshire. The first would be, how last week's race went for him. He's pissed off and nobody in the field wants to see an pissed off Harvick. Last year, he had bad luck at Chicago and came to New Hampshire and dominated. He didn't win, but he obviously had the car to beat. As he led 216 of 300 laps, but he ran out of fuel at the end though. He been awesome at this track since joining SHR. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 7.8 average finish with 4.3 average running position and 124.1 driver rating. However in 5 races with SHR (Since July 2014), he has ran out of gas in 2 of those races. He wasn't anything overly special back in 2014 when he ran of fuel, but he should have gotten a pretty good finish though. Earlier this season, he started 8th and finished 4th. He didn't really have anything for the Toyotas in that race, but he was still pretty good overall. He was about top 10 good and on the borderline of being top 5 material. He also has been a great performer on the shorter flats this season. On this type of track, he has compiled 3.8 average finish (Series-best) with 6.0 average running position and 116.4 driver rating. He is the only driver in the series to finish inside in all of the races on the shorter flats this season. Pretty impressive when you think about it, because he isn't the first driver you think of one the shorter tracks.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne and HMS has found some speed, I am still not buying that it is legit on the shorter tracks. But they have caught JGR on the intermediate tracks (imo). I think Kahne will be pretty good this weekend at New Hampshire. He performed well earlier this season and ran top 15, until that big wreck late in the race. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 19.0 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 80.3 driver rating. Kahne has been inconsistent since joining HMS at New Hampshire. He has compiled 5 Top 11 finishes and 4 finishes of 19th or worse. So he pretty been boom or bust overall. More bad news? Of those 5 Top 11 finishes, 3 of them came in his first three starts with HMS from July 2012 to July 2013. So over his past 6 races, he has posted 4 finishes of 19th or worse. Not good for his potential fantasy value. Good news? He ran top 10 back at Richmond (most recent shorter flat) and have ran quite well since the Michigan race. In fact, Kahne has finished 15th or better in 6 of the past 7 Sprint Cup races. Including 3 straight Top 7 finishes, dating back to the Darlington race. Kasey isn't known for his consistency, but when he is consistent then he is a good bet in fantasy. Honestly, I feel much better about him this week than last week. Headed into Chicago, there were a lot of questions about HMS. Would they give Elliott and Johnson great cars and give Kahne shit equipment? Or would they spread around the love. Kahne showed good speed at Chicagoland, so I feel alright about him going forward. Especially with all of the momentum he has right now. He is far from a top 10 or even top 15 lock, but long as he is showing promise, then he should be a good pick.
11-Denny Hamlin: I don't think JGR and co are as strong as they were earlier this season on certain types of tracks, but I do believe they hold the advantage on the shorter tracks though. They dominated Bristol (short track) and Richmond (shorter-flat). So personally, I find it hard to see that JGR doesn't look strong in practice and in the race. They have dominated the past two shorter-flats this season and I expect it to continue, too! Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 15.5 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 102.2 driver rating. Since the 2012 season (9 races), Hamlin has compiled 6 Top 12 finishes. Including 3 of those 6 races ending inside the top 2. He always has found success a this track, dating back to starting his career off with 3 straight Top 6 finishes in his first three starts. You just knew, he would be good here. When he won in his 3rd Cup start at this track back in 2007. Over his next 16 starts, he would finish inside the top 10 in more than half of the time. He has 13 career Top 10 finishes in 21 starts with 10.2 average finish. Hamlin should be on the short-list to go to victory lane this weekend.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy finished inside the top 10 at Chicagoland and will look to improve his chances to advance at New Hampshire. He will be a legit contender at New Hampshire. He had one of the best cars earlier this season at this track, as the Toyotas were very difficult to stay with. He faded in the final laps, but he better than his final finishing spot would suggest though. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 13.5 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 109.5 driver rating. Make no mistake about Rowdy being a force at this place. Over his past 7 races here, he has been extremely impressive. In that timeframe, he has compiled 6 Top 8 finishes. Including 4 Top 2 finishes. In fact, from July 2013 to July 2015 he had 4 second finishes in a 5-race span. Speaking of the July 2015 race, he went to victory lane on that day. That was his best race to date overall, since joining JGR. And he has had some very impressive showing in the #18 car here. Including leading 133 laps earlier this season here. If you don't have him on your fantasy radar this week, then you are simply a fool. He's a top 5 fantasy pick headed into practice. If had more momentum entering this race, I would probably picked him to win this weekend.
19-Carl Edwards: Carl Edwards was a major disappointed at Chicgoland, I can say I expected much more out of him. Really him or any of the JGR cars looked overly great at Chicagoland. After watching practice on Saturday, I wasn't totally surprise. However, I was thinking they would be more of a factor than they were. Rowdy contended for a top 5 finish for much of the race, but still felt like he couldn't stay with the Chevys though. Edwards looked the worst of the JGR cars, he was a complete non-factor all afternoon and finished 15th. Goo news, he has a chance to rebound at New Hampshire. JGR has been good all year on the shorter-flats and Edwards should be goo this weekend. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 12.3 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. Back in July, he was super strong in practice. However, he couldn't back it up in qualifying or the race. Before the race, he said this was the best racecar he ever had at New Hampshire. Things didn't go quite as well in the race though. He started outside of the top 10 and never really made it past 7th or 8th place. Mainly, he spent most of the race somewhere between 11th-14th place I would say. Then with about 20 laps to go, he got into a mess with a couple other drivers. I believe it involved Kyle Larson, Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne. Prior to finishing 20th this past July at New Hampshire, he had finishes of 5th and 7th at this track. The one really good thing about Edwards at this track? His career, he has only once finish worse than 20th place. And that was 25th place. Headed into the weekend, I would view him as a top 10 fantasy option with clear upside to contend for a top 5 finish.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth should be one of the heavy favorites this weekend at New Hampshire, as he has been one of the very best here since joining JGR. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 7.3 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 113.0 driver rating. In 7 starts with JGR, he has posted 9 Top 6 finishes. Even better? In those 7 races, he has posted 4 top 4 finishes. Including 3 wins over his past 6 races at this track. He won earlier this season, even though he probably had the 3rd-best car to Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Busch though. However, Truex Jr had issues late in the race and Rowdy faded after the final restart. It is also encouraging how strong JGR was back at Richmond, as that is the most recent shorter-flat track. Kenseth had the second-best car in that race to Martin Truex Jr. He got into a small mess with Brad Keselowski which caused him to get into the wall late in the race. Before that, he was a clear top 3 driver for majority of the race. Headed into the race, I would say that Kenseth is easily one of the best fantasy picks. He may get overlooked because he doesn't typically dominate races. But that may not be the case this weekend, as he has potential to lead plenty of laps in my opinion.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney was someone who I was very high on headed into Chicagoland and he didn't disappoint with a solid 4th-place finish. He now heads to New Hampshire, where he looks to bulid on recent success at this track. Earlier this season, he finished 11th place. He was a top 15 contender for much of that race and hung around 11th-14th for a lot of the race. Blaney is also coming off some strong finishes of late. Over he past 4 races this season, he has posted 3 Top 13 finishes. Including 2 fourth place finishes. Blaney is risky because he tends to make a lot of mistake or his raceteam makes mistake. Or simply has some bad luck. It doesn't matter either way, because that type of thing is unpreventable. Blaney have enough of speed right now to be an top 15 contender again this weekend and possibly challenge for a top 10.
22-Joey Logano: Logano has been by far one of the best drivers in the series at New Hampshire since joining Penske. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 2.8 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 110.7 driver rating. In his first race in the #22 car at New Hampshire, he was leading the event but wrecked into Morgan Shepard. He ended that race 40th place. Since? Oh, he only has posted 4 straight Top 4 finishes. Including 3 Top 3 finishes. This is one of Logano's best tracks from a career point of view as well. In 16 career starts, he has posted 11 Top 14 finishes in 16 races. And he is a 2-time winner with 2 different raceteams. Logano also has been pretty good on the shorter-flats this season. On shorter flats this season, he has compiled 9.8 average finish with 12.0 average finish and 91.7 driver rating. Headed into the weekend, I would say that Logano is a boarderline top 5 fantasy pick. He's more of a top 10 pick because he doesn't seem to do well on the shorter tracks on the long runs. He always fade, before having to charge back to the front at the end. Not exactly something I want to see in a fantasy pick. I still like him because of the success he has found in the past here.
24-Chase Elliott: Just like at Michigan, Elliott was ever so close to going to victory lane at Chicagoland. Much like Michigan a late caution ended Elliott chance to go to victory lane. Like I said many times this season already, this kid is going to win this year and it will happen soon. I don't think it will be this week. Might be next week though. Earlier this season, he was top 10 good at this place. I wouldn't call him anything beyond that though. It was weird ending for him and teammate Alex Bowman. They made contract late in the race and a few laps later, they made slammed into the wall. Bowman's car was alright to continue. Elliott's lost several laps and finished outside of the top 30. However, if Elliott didn't get into Bowman then he would had finish about 8th place in my opinion. Or somewhere around there. I personally think the HMS cars will be good this weekend, but they will be better on the intermediate tracks though. Headed into the weekend, I view Elliott as a top 15 fantasy option. With the chance sneaking inside the top 10 before the race is over as well.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch had an alright race at Chicagoland and finished 12th place. He wasn't bad overall, but much like most of this season, he lacked any upside though. The 41 car just don't have the speed it had last season. Kurt also has lost his top 10 consistency. So right now, he holds zero fantasy value in my opinion. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 21.8 average finish with 10.8 average running position and 89.9 driver rating. As you can see, he has performed well at New Hampshire of late (see average running position and driver rating). However, he just has had shit for luck. He has had ran quite well over his past 3 races here (all with SHR) and was legit top 10 contender in all three races. While only posting one top 10 in that span. Bad news? Over his past 10 races at this track, he only has posted 1 top 10 finish and that was back in July 2015. His lack of speed makes him a less attractive fantasy option and his track record also takes away from his attractiveness. Headed into the weekend, I would view him as a top 12 fantasy option. Based on what I know already, I would say his ceiling is top 10 for New Hampshire.
42-Kyle Larson: Well I absolutely nailed it in the fantasy nascar update on Saturday when I said Larson would have a bad race in the chase at a track we don't expect. Well, he finished 7th at Chciagoland. Who would have expected him to do bad there? I wasn't. To be fair, Larson was pretty good overall for the race. He ran top 10 for the race, even after having to go to the rear for transmission change. Tough break for him, but has two races to get himself back in position in points. New Hampshire isn't the ideal track him though. Larson in my opinion is overrated at New Hampshire. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 16.8 average finish with 18.8 average running position and 77.7 driver rating. Good news, but like I said I think he is overrated. Everyone just remembers his first couple races here. Where he finished 2nd and 3rd in his first two starts. Yeah that's great, but he has performed at average over his 3 starts since then though. July 2015 (last season), he had a speeding penalty which pretty much put him in a hole for the entier race. But his team missed the setup on his car anyhow. Came back in September (2015) and struggled once again. Alright new year, he comes to New Hampshire in July (this season - 2016) and what does he do? Struggles again. Sure, the Newman wreck didn't help him any. But he wasn't a top 10 contender or anything. Ran in the teens all day long and never really made inside the top 10 from my memory. Okay let's say you are on the Larson's hype train, there is some good news about picking him. He was a strong driver a couple weeks ago at Richmond. Not saying the results will translate, but you have to feel about his performance there.
48-Jimmie Johnson: My big fear in the my fantasy nascar update on Saturday evening was could the 48 team to put together a full race? For awhile there, I thought he had it on lockdown. He got to lead after untimely caution for rest of the leaders and ran with it for good portion of the afternoon. However on the final round of green flag pit stops, he sped on pit road. Not good, it would take him out of contention. He will look to put it behind him and focus on New Hampshire. This has been a great track for him overall. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 11.3 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 94.9 driver rating. Johnson has posted 3 Top 12 finishes over that 4-race timeframe. Johnson has a impressive string of finishes in the September races at New Hampshire, as well. Over the past 9 September races at New Hampshire, he has compiled 7 top 6 finishes. Including 4 straight top 6 finishes, dating back to the 2012 season. He was also good earlier this season, while leading a lap and finishing 12th. The HMS cars struggled earlier in the season, so you cannot really count it against him. I say headed into practice, Johnson is a top 10 driver with some upside. I wouldn't say I am super high on Johnson, but I wouldn't be shocked if he has one of the cars to beat.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr is fresh off a win at Chicagoland and will look to keep the good times rolling at New Hampshire. Earlier this season, he was very strong at New Hampshire. He may have had the car to beat in my opinion. Him or Kyle Busch. Busch may had been a tad stronger overall though. Of course, he had issues late which cost him a possible win. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 12.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 92.9 driver rating. Truex has been pretty good here for awhile. Over the past 11 races at this track, he has posted 10 Top 16 finishes. Including 5 Top 12 finishes over his past 6 races at this venue. I love Truex Jr this weekend at New Hampshire. Not only because he was strong back in July, but how he flat-out dominated at Richmond. He was awesome there and led nearly 200 laps. Of course JGR-driver Denny Hamlin was right behind him in laps led as well. The big quesiton is will Truex take it easy this week, since he has a win already. Or will he try to win to steal that automatic advancement from other chase drivers? Hard to say, but I see no reason why he would try to take it easy.
****All stats from DriverAverages.com and FantsyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: JMac had a solid race at Chicgoland and ran inside the top 10 for good part of the event, but ended in 11th when the checkers waved. Now, he moves onto a track in which has found decent success at. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 12.5 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 90.3 driver rating. Very strong overall for him, with 9.5 average finish over his past 6 races with taking out last July (2015) race out. He had a engine go south in the final laps and finished 26th. Every other finish over the past 3 seasons has been 16th or better. Including 3 Top 6 finishes in that span. 2 of those 3 top 6 finishes has ended inside the top 5. Even better? Both of those top 5 finishes has came in the chase portion of the season. Earlier this season, he finished 6th at this racetrack. He wasn't a top 10 contender for the event, but he was easily a top 15 contender though. He also has been very good on the shorter flats this season. On the flats this season, JMac has compiled 11.3 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 82.4 driver rating. The most recent short-flat racetrack was a couple weeks ago at Richmond. Both him and teammate Kyle Larson were top 10 contenders. They were better on the short runs and that really helped them at the end. Headed into the weekend, you can expect JMac to be least a top 15 contender and likely have top 10 upside. Given Ganassi continues to show the speed, they has been showing.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski started the 2016 chase off by finishing inside the top 5 at Chicgoland! Great way to start off the chase! So how will he do at New Hampshire? I think he will do extremely well and personally I have him on my short-list of drivers to win this weekend. Not only has he been fast very often this season, but his track record on New Hampshire makes him a stood out-type fantasy pick. His numbers here recently are quite impressive, he has been one of the best in the series. Over the past 4 New Hampshire races, he has compiled 9.0 average finish with 5.5 average running position and 114.9 driver rating. Keselowski has finishes of 15th and 12th over his past two races here, but they were both misleading finsihes. He ran inside the top 5, before having issues late in those races. An fun fact about him at New Hampshire? He has finished 15th or better in 10 straight races. Including 9 straight races of 12th or better, before July's misleading 15th place finish. You have to go back to July 2011 to find a finish worse than 15th place at this track. In simple terms, he's the best driver in the series at this racetrack. What makes it even more impressive? This track is known for fuel mileage and a track position battle. The fact that he has finished inside the top 15 in every race since 2011, makes it almost unbelievable. As no other driver have been able to accomplish that feat over the past 5 races.
3-Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon wasn't overly impressive at Chicagoland, but was good enough to be a top 15 contender for much of the event though. I like Dillon this weekend at New Hampshire. RCR is giving him their best cars and he should take advantage of that, too. His track record at New Hampshire isn't too bad, either. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 13.5 average finish with 18.3 average running position and 74.3 driver rating. He has been very good here in short career overall. With 4 finishes of 14th or better in 5 career starts in the #3 car. He finished 13th earlier this season and was a top 15 contender for much of the race. At times, he ran outside of the top 15, but for the most part he did what he needed to. I would say it terms of performance, he had his second-best race. Only to his second-career start back in 2014, where he finished in the 8th position. Even though, I say it wasn't too far off though. He also been very good on the shorter-flats as well. On the shorter flats this season, he has compiled 13.8 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 82.5 driver rating. Based on the numbers, season trends and logic, Dillon should be a top 15 fantasy option this weekend. He will likely be useless in deeper formats, other than Yahoo Fantasy Racing. His upside isn't appealing enough for formats which reward points in multiple categories though.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is my pick this week to win! There are a lot of things to really like about him at New Hampshire. The first would be, how last week's race went for him. He's pissed off and nobody in the field wants to see an pissed off Harvick. Last year, he had bad luck at Chicago and came to New Hampshire and dominated. He didn't win, but he obviously had the car to beat. As he led 216 of 300 laps, but he ran out of fuel at the end though. He been awesome at this track since joining SHR. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 7.8 average finish with 4.3 average running position and 124.1 driver rating. However in 5 races with SHR (Since July 2014), he has ran out of gas in 2 of those races. He wasn't anything overly special back in 2014 when he ran of fuel, but he should have gotten a pretty good finish though. Earlier this season, he started 8th and finished 4th. He didn't really have anything for the Toyotas in that race, but he was still pretty good overall. He was about top 10 good and on the borderline of being top 5 material. He also has been a great performer on the shorter flats this season. On this type of track, he has compiled 3.8 average finish (Series-best) with 6.0 average running position and 116.4 driver rating. He is the only driver in the series to finish inside in all of the races on the shorter flats this season. Pretty impressive when you think about it, because he isn't the first driver you think of one the shorter tracks.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne and HMS has found some speed, I am still not buying that it is legit on the shorter tracks. But they have caught JGR on the intermediate tracks (imo). I think Kahne will be pretty good this weekend at New Hampshire. He performed well earlier this season and ran top 15, until that big wreck late in the race. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 19.0 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 80.3 driver rating. Kahne has been inconsistent since joining HMS at New Hampshire. He has compiled 5 Top 11 finishes and 4 finishes of 19th or worse. So he pretty been boom or bust overall. More bad news? Of those 5 Top 11 finishes, 3 of them came in his first three starts with HMS from July 2012 to July 2013. So over his past 6 races, he has posted 4 finishes of 19th or worse. Not good for his potential fantasy value. Good news? He ran top 10 back at Richmond (most recent shorter flat) and have ran quite well since the Michigan race. In fact, Kahne has finished 15th or better in 6 of the past 7 Sprint Cup races. Including 3 straight Top 7 finishes, dating back to the Darlington race. Kasey isn't known for his consistency, but when he is consistent then he is a good bet in fantasy. Honestly, I feel much better about him this week than last week. Headed into Chicago, there were a lot of questions about HMS. Would they give Elliott and Johnson great cars and give Kahne shit equipment? Or would they spread around the love. Kahne showed good speed at Chicagoland, so I feel alright about him going forward. Especially with all of the momentum he has right now. He is far from a top 10 or even top 15 lock, but long as he is showing promise, then he should be a good pick.
11-Denny Hamlin: I don't think JGR and co are as strong as they were earlier this season on certain types of tracks, but I do believe they hold the advantage on the shorter tracks though. They dominated Bristol (short track) and Richmond (shorter-flat). So personally, I find it hard to see that JGR doesn't look strong in practice and in the race. They have dominated the past two shorter-flats this season and I expect it to continue, too! Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 15.5 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 102.2 driver rating. Since the 2012 season (9 races), Hamlin has compiled 6 Top 12 finishes. Including 3 of those 6 races ending inside the top 2. He always has found success a this track, dating back to starting his career off with 3 straight Top 6 finishes in his first three starts. You just knew, he would be good here. When he won in his 3rd Cup start at this track back in 2007. Over his next 16 starts, he would finish inside the top 10 in more than half of the time. He has 13 career Top 10 finishes in 21 starts with 10.2 average finish. Hamlin should be on the short-list to go to victory lane this weekend.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy finished inside the top 10 at Chicagoland and will look to improve his chances to advance at New Hampshire. He will be a legit contender at New Hampshire. He had one of the best cars earlier this season at this track, as the Toyotas were very difficult to stay with. He faded in the final laps, but he better than his final finishing spot would suggest though. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 13.5 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 109.5 driver rating. Make no mistake about Rowdy being a force at this place. Over his past 7 races here, he has been extremely impressive. In that timeframe, he has compiled 6 Top 8 finishes. Including 4 Top 2 finishes. In fact, from July 2013 to July 2015 he had 4 second finishes in a 5-race span. Speaking of the July 2015 race, he went to victory lane on that day. That was his best race to date overall, since joining JGR. And he has had some very impressive showing in the #18 car here. Including leading 133 laps earlier this season here. If you don't have him on your fantasy radar this week, then you are simply a fool. He's a top 5 fantasy pick headed into practice. If had more momentum entering this race, I would probably picked him to win this weekend.
19-Carl Edwards: Carl Edwards was a major disappointed at Chicgoland, I can say I expected much more out of him. Really him or any of the JGR cars looked overly great at Chicagoland. After watching practice on Saturday, I wasn't totally surprise. However, I was thinking they would be more of a factor than they were. Rowdy contended for a top 5 finish for much of the race, but still felt like he couldn't stay with the Chevys though. Edwards looked the worst of the JGR cars, he was a complete non-factor all afternoon and finished 15th. Goo news, he has a chance to rebound at New Hampshire. JGR has been good all year on the shorter-flats and Edwards should be goo this weekend. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 12.3 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. Back in July, he was super strong in practice. However, he couldn't back it up in qualifying or the race. Before the race, he said this was the best racecar he ever had at New Hampshire. Things didn't go quite as well in the race though. He started outside of the top 10 and never really made it past 7th or 8th place. Mainly, he spent most of the race somewhere between 11th-14th place I would say. Then with about 20 laps to go, he got into a mess with a couple other drivers. I believe it involved Kyle Larson, Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne. Prior to finishing 20th this past July at New Hampshire, he had finishes of 5th and 7th at this track. The one really good thing about Edwards at this track? His career, he has only once finish worse than 20th place. And that was 25th place. Headed into the weekend, I would view him as a top 10 fantasy option with clear upside to contend for a top 5 finish.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth should be one of the heavy favorites this weekend at New Hampshire, as he has been one of the very best here since joining JGR. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 7.3 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 113.0 driver rating. In 7 starts with JGR, he has posted 9 Top 6 finishes. Even better? In those 7 races, he has posted 4 top 4 finishes. Including 3 wins over his past 6 races at this track. He won earlier this season, even though he probably had the 3rd-best car to Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Busch though. However, Truex Jr had issues late in the race and Rowdy faded after the final restart. It is also encouraging how strong JGR was back at Richmond, as that is the most recent shorter-flat track. Kenseth had the second-best car in that race to Martin Truex Jr. He got into a small mess with Brad Keselowski which caused him to get into the wall late in the race. Before that, he was a clear top 3 driver for majority of the race. Headed into the race, I would say that Kenseth is easily one of the best fantasy picks. He may get overlooked because he doesn't typically dominate races. But that may not be the case this weekend, as he has potential to lead plenty of laps in my opinion.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney was someone who I was very high on headed into Chicagoland and he didn't disappoint with a solid 4th-place finish. He now heads to New Hampshire, where he looks to bulid on recent success at this track. Earlier this season, he finished 11th place. He was a top 15 contender for much of that race and hung around 11th-14th for a lot of the race. Blaney is also coming off some strong finishes of late. Over he past 4 races this season, he has posted 3 Top 13 finishes. Including 2 fourth place finishes. Blaney is risky because he tends to make a lot of mistake or his raceteam makes mistake. Or simply has some bad luck. It doesn't matter either way, because that type of thing is unpreventable. Blaney have enough of speed right now to be an top 15 contender again this weekend and possibly challenge for a top 10.
22-Joey Logano: Logano has been by far one of the best drivers in the series at New Hampshire since joining Penske. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 2.8 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 110.7 driver rating. In his first race in the #22 car at New Hampshire, he was leading the event but wrecked into Morgan Shepard. He ended that race 40th place. Since? Oh, he only has posted 4 straight Top 4 finishes. Including 3 Top 3 finishes. This is one of Logano's best tracks from a career point of view as well. In 16 career starts, he has posted 11 Top 14 finishes in 16 races. And he is a 2-time winner with 2 different raceteams. Logano also has been pretty good on the shorter-flats this season. On shorter flats this season, he has compiled 9.8 average finish with 12.0 average finish and 91.7 driver rating. Headed into the weekend, I would say that Logano is a boarderline top 5 fantasy pick. He's more of a top 10 pick because he doesn't seem to do well on the shorter tracks on the long runs. He always fade, before having to charge back to the front at the end. Not exactly something I want to see in a fantasy pick. I still like him because of the success he has found in the past here.
24-Chase Elliott: Just like at Michigan, Elliott was ever so close to going to victory lane at Chicagoland. Much like Michigan a late caution ended Elliott chance to go to victory lane. Like I said many times this season already, this kid is going to win this year and it will happen soon. I don't think it will be this week. Might be next week though. Earlier this season, he was top 10 good at this place. I wouldn't call him anything beyond that though. It was weird ending for him and teammate Alex Bowman. They made contract late in the race and a few laps later, they made slammed into the wall. Bowman's car was alright to continue. Elliott's lost several laps and finished outside of the top 30. However, if Elliott didn't get into Bowman then he would had finish about 8th place in my opinion. Or somewhere around there. I personally think the HMS cars will be good this weekend, but they will be better on the intermediate tracks though. Headed into the weekend, I view Elliott as a top 15 fantasy option. With the chance sneaking inside the top 10 before the race is over as well.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch had an alright race at Chicagoland and finished 12th place. He wasn't bad overall, but much like most of this season, he lacked any upside though. The 41 car just don't have the speed it had last season. Kurt also has lost his top 10 consistency. So right now, he holds zero fantasy value in my opinion. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 21.8 average finish with 10.8 average running position and 89.9 driver rating. As you can see, he has performed well at New Hampshire of late (see average running position and driver rating). However, he just has had shit for luck. He has had ran quite well over his past 3 races here (all with SHR) and was legit top 10 contender in all three races. While only posting one top 10 in that span. Bad news? Over his past 10 races at this track, he only has posted 1 top 10 finish and that was back in July 2015. His lack of speed makes him a less attractive fantasy option and his track record also takes away from his attractiveness. Headed into the weekend, I would view him as a top 12 fantasy option. Based on what I know already, I would say his ceiling is top 10 for New Hampshire.
42-Kyle Larson: Well I absolutely nailed it in the fantasy nascar update on Saturday when I said Larson would have a bad race in the chase at a track we don't expect. Well, he finished 7th at Chciagoland. Who would have expected him to do bad there? I wasn't. To be fair, Larson was pretty good overall for the race. He ran top 10 for the race, even after having to go to the rear for transmission change. Tough break for him, but has two races to get himself back in position in points. New Hampshire isn't the ideal track him though. Larson in my opinion is overrated at New Hampshire. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 16.8 average finish with 18.8 average running position and 77.7 driver rating. Good news, but like I said I think he is overrated. Everyone just remembers his first couple races here. Where he finished 2nd and 3rd in his first two starts. Yeah that's great, but he has performed at average over his 3 starts since then though. July 2015 (last season), he had a speeding penalty which pretty much put him in a hole for the entier race. But his team missed the setup on his car anyhow. Came back in September (2015) and struggled once again. Alright new year, he comes to New Hampshire in July (this season - 2016) and what does he do? Struggles again. Sure, the Newman wreck didn't help him any. But he wasn't a top 10 contender or anything. Ran in the teens all day long and never really made inside the top 10 from my memory. Okay let's say you are on the Larson's hype train, there is some good news about picking him. He was a strong driver a couple weeks ago at Richmond. Not saying the results will translate, but you have to feel about his performance there.
48-Jimmie Johnson: My big fear in the my fantasy nascar update on Saturday evening was could the 48 team to put together a full race? For awhile there, I thought he had it on lockdown. He got to lead after untimely caution for rest of the leaders and ran with it for good portion of the afternoon. However on the final round of green flag pit stops, he sped on pit road. Not good, it would take him out of contention. He will look to put it behind him and focus on New Hampshire. This has been a great track for him overall. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 11.3 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 94.9 driver rating. Johnson has posted 3 Top 12 finishes over that 4-race timeframe. Johnson has a impressive string of finishes in the September races at New Hampshire, as well. Over the past 9 September races at New Hampshire, he has compiled 7 top 6 finishes. Including 4 straight top 6 finishes, dating back to the 2012 season. He was also good earlier this season, while leading a lap and finishing 12th. The HMS cars struggled earlier in the season, so you cannot really count it against him. I say headed into practice, Johnson is a top 10 driver with some upside. I wouldn't say I am super high on Johnson, but I wouldn't be shocked if he has one of the cars to beat.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr is fresh off a win at Chicagoland and will look to keep the good times rolling at New Hampshire. Earlier this season, he was very strong at New Hampshire. He may have had the car to beat in my opinion. Him or Kyle Busch. Busch may had been a tad stronger overall though. Of course, he had issues late which cost him a possible win. Over the past 4 races here, he has compiled 12.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 92.9 driver rating. Truex has been pretty good here for awhile. Over the past 11 races at this track, he has posted 10 Top 16 finishes. Including 5 Top 12 finishes over his past 6 races at this venue. I love Truex Jr this weekend at New Hampshire. Not only because he was strong back in July, but how he flat-out dominated at Richmond. He was awesome there and led nearly 200 laps. Of course JGR-driver Denny Hamlin was right behind him in laps led as well. The big quesiton is will Truex take it easy this week, since he has a win already. Or will he try to win to steal that automatic advancement from other chase drivers? Hard to say, but I see no reason why he would try to take it easy.
****All stats from DriverAverages.com and FantsyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
