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Fantasy Nascar Update -
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - I view Harvick as the driver to beat after watching two practice sessions on Saturday morning and afternoon. His strength was the long run and it was obvious he has the best racecar after you put some laps on the tires. His competition lap times would fall off more, but not the #4 car. Am I surprised? Hell no! The 4 car always show up with a fast car and this weekend is no different. A lot of people were concerned with Harvick only posting the 16th and 21st fastest laps in the two practice on Saturday. Folks, if you were tracking lap times than you know Harvick was very fast. Also it should be noted, he waited a while in both sessions to post a lap. He didn't start running laps at the start of the sessions like Kyle Larson did. He waited, so his overall speed isn't as quick. Make no mistake though, he will be a very heavily factor on Sunday!
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Kyle Busch - You know I considered a couple different drivers for this spot, but in the end I decided to go with the Pole sitter in Kyle Busch. He was lacking speed in the morning session overall, he wasn't bad either. Good news was, he didn't have the vibration he had yesterday. In the later (final) practice, he was much improved and showed good show overall. I don't know, if he have the car to beat. However, there are many things to like about Kyle Busch this weekend. First off, he always been pretty good at Chicagoland. Over the past 4 races here, he has finished 9th or better in all 4 races. Including at least 46 laps led in each of the past 3 races. In last season's event, he led nearly half of the event but finished 9th. Busch started on the pole back in 2013 and led 46 laps and finished 7th place. The other time, he started on the pole was back in 2008 and he dominated that event and eventually won. The Pole sitter this season have also gone on to lead a lot of laps and strong finishes as well. Over the past 5 Sprint Cup races, the pole sitter have led at least 24 laps and have converted it into an 8.8 average finish. The past two races, the pole sitter have led over 170 laps. Starting up front seems to lead to good thing. And having the best pit stall also will be huge as well. Personally I don't think anyone will dominate this race, so lead so laps early will be beneficial in every format. Overall, Rowdy has a good enough to stay inside the top 5 for most of the day in my opinion. Don't be shocked to see him in Victory lane on Sunday afternoon!
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski have looked really good this weekend overall with good amount of speed as well. He posted the 4th-fastest lap in the first session on Saturday, but only the 25th-fastest lap in the final practice session. What was up with that? I don't know, but he was 6th in terms of 10-lap average. I think he is far from having the car to beat for Sunday's race. But he has a couple of things I love. The first would be obviously momentum, entering this race! Over the past 6 races, he has 4 Top 5 finishes. He got screwed out of top 5 finishes at Bristol and Darlington. He should have finished inside the top 5 in both of those races. Especially the Dalrington race. If he didn't have those loose wheels, I would say he would have finished inside the top 5. Point being, Keselowski has been extremely strong of late. He also been pretty good at this racetrack as well. Over the past 5 Sprint cup races, he has posted 5 straight top 8 finishes. Including two wins over that 5 race-span. Even bigger? He have won on even years (2012 and 2014). He last won in 2014, if the trends how true. Then he can expect him to be in victory lane. Personally I think he will come up short and finish somewhere around 3rd-5th place.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
4. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson is a questionable fantasy play this week, because he haven't been able to put a full-race together in awhile. He have had a lot of speed lately. Very strong at Darlington and Michigan, but he had mistakes which cost him better finishes. This weekend, I would say he had the 2nd or 3rd best car overall in Saturday's practice. His lap times were very good, not quite as good as Harvick but he was right behind him though. In the first practice session, he only was 17th-fastest in overall speed. But he posted the 2nd-best ten-lap average. Overall, he was quite happy with his car I would say. He posted the 11th-quickest lap in final practice, but posted the best 10-lap average overall. With speed of over 179 mph. That was a near 1 mph quicker than Chase Elliott who ranked second in that category during final practice. Johnson also will start from the 8th position, which should make him a great play in formats which rewards position differential. I think it comes down to trust with the 48 car, he will have the speed to be a top 5 contender but will he finish there? I don't know, but I think he is worth a gamble though.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
5. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin haven't looked as good as I would have thought, but he will start from the 3rd starting spot. The 11 car obviously isn't as good as some of the other cars up front this week, but I think he will perform better in the race than most will expect. He also has a lot of momentum entering this race overall. Over the past 8 Sprint Cup races, he have finished inside the top 10. He dominated last week's race, after starting from the pole. But he also was a lot quicker too. Hamlin isn't known for his dominating performances at Chicagoland. In fact, when he won last season's race. He wasn't much of a factor until the late stages of the race. The same can be said about his performance in 2014 as well. Point being, Hamlin doesn't need to have a great car, in order to get a strong finish. I expect him to be up there at the end, contending for least an top 7 finish.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
B:
1. Martin Truex Jr - Martin Truex Jr has looked great all weekend, since unloading off the truck. I would make the argument he been the strongest Toyota in the three practice sessions. He posted top 7 speeds in all three practices and looked pretty good on the long runs as well. To no surprise, the 78 car is fast this weekend. That team's strength this season has been on the 1.5 mile tracks. When you think of Chicgoland, you should think back to Kansas for a comparison. He dominated that race and probably would've won, if he didn't have to make another pit stop. In fact, he has dominated 3 of the past 4 1.5 mile racetracks. He will start from 6th position, so he will have some work to do with all of the other contenders also starting up front. This weekend, I say he right up there the top 3 or 4 in terms of speed. Personally, I think he has the speed to win. I think the question is, will he be able to avoid bad luck? He has done a great job of that over the past two races, can he make it three straight? We will find out!
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
2. Carl Edwards - I think you could make a case for either Edwards or Larson. I gave the ranking to Edwards because he looked just as good as Larson and starting higher up. Edwards have looked the best among the JGR cars on Saturday overall. He was able to sweep the top 5 in both sessions. He was 2nd-fastest in the morning session and backed it up by being 4th-fastest in final practice. He only posted the 18th-best ten lap average. Not very encouraging, but to be fair it wasn't until later in the session. The top 11 ten-lap averages were all done on the first ten laps. Edwards' best ten lap average wasn't until lap 20-29. I think Edwards headed into the race has enough speed to contend for a top 5 finish, but he has been very up and down over the past couple months. It is surprising, since he started the season so hot. Heading to the race, I view him as a border-line top 5 driver. I don't think he will win, but I won't be shocked if he does either though. He been at top of the speed charts all weekend.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
3. Kyle Larson - I could have easily ranked Larson over Edwards because of recent Chicagoland's success and all of the momentum Larson has. But I decided against, as I think the 19 and 42 cars are pretty damn near equal. Larson worked on a lot of short runs, by only running a couple laps at a time. So it is hard to say, how good he actually is. But he posted a fast 9 or 10 lap run run at end of practice and I thought it was really solid overall. Headed into the race, I feel much better about his short run speed than his long run speed. I personally think Larson has a better shot at a top 10 finish than a top 5 finish, but wouldn't be the first time he has fooled me though. I like his 3 straight Top 3 finishes, more than anything, if we are being honest. He's hot and sometimes that is better than having a great car. When you are picking Larson, you are always going to be gambling. However, I believe he is now much less of a risk than he was at one time.
My Overall Ranking: 10th
4. Austin Dillon - Hard saying who should go in this spot between Dillon, Kahne or Newman. I went with the chase driver of Austin Dillon. I haven't been blown away by Dillon this weekend and his track record isn't anything to write about. But he will have the best car available to RCR on Sunday. Usually that means a solid top 15 from him then. Look, Dillon not going to go out there and challenge for a top 5 finish. Nor will he run inside the top 10 for the entire event. So if you are looking for a driver that will, then you better off looking elsewhere. However, he was good enough on Saturday for me to have confidences in him. In final practice, he posted the 12th-best 10-lap average. That came on laps 6-15. The first 11 drivers posted their ten lap averages on laps 1-10, if you were wondering. Dillon is a consistent driver, remember that! It's what gives him fantasy value, last season his fantasy value was dead because he was inconsistent. Even though, he had more upside in my opinion. Headed into the race, I think he will finish in the 12th-17th place range and have enough upside to sneak inside the top 10. But I think his chances are slim to pull it off though.
My Overall Ranking: 12th
5. Kasey Kahne - You know, I expected JMac to be a lot better than he has been this weekend. I hoenstly didn't expect too much for Kahne. But to my surprise, I am liking Kahne a lot more than I am like JMac. Doesn't matter though, because I love the speed the Hendrick cars are showing this weekend. I really liked what they showed back at Michigan ( a larger intermediate track) and they seem to be building on that as well. All of the HMS cars have speed in them and their allies of Haas (Harvick), along with Ganassi (Larson) have some awesome speed as well. When Kahne is fast, you are knowing you are doing something right. Especially during the chase! Personally, I don't see Kahne as nothing more than top 15 finisher. He may be a little better than that, but let's not push our luck too much. The one huge thing he has going for him is the momentum. Over the past month, the 5 car have been very consistent and getting top 15 finishes after top 15 finishes. Even better, he has put together back-to-back top 10 finishes at Darlington and Richmond. If you are going to use him, then it has a lot to do with the momentum he has going for him right now.
My Overall Ranking: 14th
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott looked awesome in practice, as he was very fast in both practices on Saturday afternoon. He was quick on start of a run and just got better on the long runs in my opinion. He was better than rest of his HMS teammates and I thought Johnson was a top 5 guy in practice. What stood out to me the most about about Elliott was how consistent he was. Just not consistent, but consistently fast! The 24 car will be a major player and not a lot of people are taking him serious outside of your standard Yahoo leagues. If you play formats such as Fantasy Live (on Nascar.com), Draft Kings or something like that. Then you almost have to try to sneak him in your lineup. Starts from 14th and has top 5 potential. That's a winning combo to me. Headed into the race, I have him ranked just ouside of the top 10. But I would be majorly disappointed if Elliott didn't contend for least a top 10 finish. In fact, I am expecting him to be inside the top 5 at some point.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
2. Ryan Blaney - Blaney has been good this weekend overall and has showed pretty good speed in all of the practice sessions. He wasn't close to showing the speed of Chase Elliott, but he should be able to move up at least 5 to 7 spots. And that's pretty the least amount of spots he will move up. If he can go the entire race, without making a mistake then he should be in line for a strong 10 to 12 improvement. The 21 team's biggest issue this season has been finishing out races, because of mistake on pit road or on the racetrack. If they can get Blaney near the top 10, then he will be in great shape. He's a good talent, with the speed to be sneaky good pick in almost every format.
My Overall ranking: 19th
3. Alex Bowman - I haven't really watched Alex much this weekend in terms of practice and stuff, but his teammates has been pretty good since unloading. Among the HMS cars, I would say Alex has looked the worst of the three cars. Bowman will roll off from just outside of the top 15, in the 17th position. Personally I don't see him improving much from there and at the most will find himself somewhere around 13th-18th place. I don't have very high hopes for him overall. If he finishes top 15, then I would say it was a successful weekend for him.
My Overall Ranking: 23rd
Grouping Tier Rankings (via Yahoo format) -
A -
1. Kevin Harvick
2. Kyle Busch
3. Brad Keselowski
4. Jimmie Johnson
5. Denny Hamlin
6. Joey Logano
7. Kurt Busch
8. Matt Kenseth
B -
1. Martin Truex Jr
2. Carl Edwards
3. Kyle Larson
4. Austin Dillon
5. Kasey Kahne
6. Ryan Newman
7. JMac
8. Tony Stewart
9. Paul Menard
10. Greg Biffle
C-
1. Chase Elliott
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Alex Bowman
4. Chris Buescher
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Update -
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - I view Harvick as the driver to beat after watching two practice sessions on Saturday morning and afternoon. His strength was the long run and it was obvious he has the best racecar after you put some laps on the tires. His competition lap times would fall off more, but not the #4 car. Am I surprised? Hell no! The 4 car always show up with a fast car and this weekend is no different. A lot of people were concerned with Harvick only posting the 16th and 21st fastest laps in the two practice on Saturday. Folks, if you were tracking lap times than you know Harvick was very fast. Also it should be noted, he waited a while in both sessions to post a lap. He didn't start running laps at the start of the sessions like Kyle Larson did. He waited, so his overall speed isn't as quick. Make no mistake though, he will be a very heavily factor on Sunday!
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Kyle Busch - You know I considered a couple different drivers for this spot, but in the end I decided to go with the Pole sitter in Kyle Busch. He was lacking speed in the morning session overall, he wasn't bad either. Good news was, he didn't have the vibration he had yesterday. In the later (final) practice, he was much improved and showed good show overall. I don't know, if he have the car to beat. However, there are many things to like about Kyle Busch this weekend. First off, he always been pretty good at Chicagoland. Over the past 4 races here, he has finished 9th or better in all 4 races. Including at least 46 laps led in each of the past 3 races. In last season's event, he led nearly half of the event but finished 9th. Busch started on the pole back in 2013 and led 46 laps and finished 7th place. The other time, he started on the pole was back in 2008 and he dominated that event and eventually won. The Pole sitter this season have also gone on to lead a lot of laps and strong finishes as well. Over the past 5 Sprint Cup races, the pole sitter have led at least 24 laps and have converted it into an 8.8 average finish. The past two races, the pole sitter have led over 170 laps. Starting up front seems to lead to good thing. And having the best pit stall also will be huge as well. Personally I don't think anyone will dominate this race, so lead so laps early will be beneficial in every format. Overall, Rowdy has a good enough to stay inside the top 5 for most of the day in my opinion. Don't be shocked to see him in Victory lane on Sunday afternoon!
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski have looked really good this weekend overall with good amount of speed as well. He posted the 4th-fastest lap in the first session on Saturday, but only the 25th-fastest lap in the final practice session. What was up with that? I don't know, but he was 6th in terms of 10-lap average. I think he is far from having the car to beat for Sunday's race. But he has a couple of things I love. The first would be obviously momentum, entering this race! Over the past 6 races, he has 4 Top 5 finishes. He got screwed out of top 5 finishes at Bristol and Darlington. He should have finished inside the top 5 in both of those races. Especially the Dalrington race. If he didn't have those loose wheels, I would say he would have finished inside the top 5. Point being, Keselowski has been extremely strong of late. He also been pretty good at this racetrack as well. Over the past 5 Sprint cup races, he has posted 5 straight top 8 finishes. Including two wins over that 5 race-span. Even bigger? He have won on even years (2012 and 2014). He last won in 2014, if the trends how true. Then he can expect him to be in victory lane. Personally I think he will come up short and finish somewhere around 3rd-5th place.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
4. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson is a questionable fantasy play this week, because he haven't been able to put a full-race together in awhile. He have had a lot of speed lately. Very strong at Darlington and Michigan, but he had mistakes which cost him better finishes. This weekend, I would say he had the 2nd or 3rd best car overall in Saturday's practice. His lap times were very good, not quite as good as Harvick but he was right behind him though. In the first practice session, he only was 17th-fastest in overall speed. But he posted the 2nd-best ten-lap average. Overall, he was quite happy with his car I would say. He posted the 11th-quickest lap in final practice, but posted the best 10-lap average overall. With speed of over 179 mph. That was a near 1 mph quicker than Chase Elliott who ranked second in that category during final practice. Johnson also will start from the 8th position, which should make him a great play in formats which rewards position differential. I think it comes down to trust with the 48 car, he will have the speed to be a top 5 contender but will he finish there? I don't know, but I think he is worth a gamble though.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
5. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin haven't looked as good as I would have thought, but he will start from the 3rd starting spot. The 11 car obviously isn't as good as some of the other cars up front this week, but I think he will perform better in the race than most will expect. He also has a lot of momentum entering this race overall. Over the past 8 Sprint Cup races, he have finished inside the top 10. He dominated last week's race, after starting from the pole. But he also was a lot quicker too. Hamlin isn't known for his dominating performances at Chicagoland. In fact, when he won last season's race. He wasn't much of a factor until the late stages of the race. The same can be said about his performance in 2014 as well. Point being, Hamlin doesn't need to have a great car, in order to get a strong finish. I expect him to be up there at the end, contending for least an top 7 finish.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
B:
1. Martin Truex Jr - Martin Truex Jr has looked great all weekend, since unloading off the truck. I would make the argument he been the strongest Toyota in the three practice sessions. He posted top 7 speeds in all three practices and looked pretty good on the long runs as well. To no surprise, the 78 car is fast this weekend. That team's strength this season has been on the 1.5 mile tracks. When you think of Chicgoland, you should think back to Kansas for a comparison. He dominated that race and probably would've won, if he didn't have to make another pit stop. In fact, he has dominated 3 of the past 4 1.5 mile racetracks. He will start from 6th position, so he will have some work to do with all of the other contenders also starting up front. This weekend, I say he right up there the top 3 or 4 in terms of speed. Personally, I think he has the speed to win. I think the question is, will he be able to avoid bad luck? He has done a great job of that over the past two races, can he make it three straight? We will find out!
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
2. Carl Edwards - I think you could make a case for either Edwards or Larson. I gave the ranking to Edwards because he looked just as good as Larson and starting higher up. Edwards have looked the best among the JGR cars on Saturday overall. He was able to sweep the top 5 in both sessions. He was 2nd-fastest in the morning session and backed it up by being 4th-fastest in final practice. He only posted the 18th-best ten lap average. Not very encouraging, but to be fair it wasn't until later in the session. The top 11 ten-lap averages were all done on the first ten laps. Edwards' best ten lap average wasn't until lap 20-29. I think Edwards headed into the race has enough speed to contend for a top 5 finish, but he has been very up and down over the past couple months. It is surprising, since he started the season so hot. Heading to the race, I view him as a border-line top 5 driver. I don't think he will win, but I won't be shocked if he does either though. He been at top of the speed charts all weekend.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
3. Kyle Larson - I could have easily ranked Larson over Edwards because of recent Chicagoland's success and all of the momentum Larson has. But I decided against, as I think the 19 and 42 cars are pretty damn near equal. Larson worked on a lot of short runs, by only running a couple laps at a time. So it is hard to say, how good he actually is. But he posted a fast 9 or 10 lap run run at end of practice and I thought it was really solid overall. Headed into the race, I feel much better about his short run speed than his long run speed. I personally think Larson has a better shot at a top 10 finish than a top 5 finish, but wouldn't be the first time he has fooled me though. I like his 3 straight Top 3 finishes, more than anything, if we are being honest. He's hot and sometimes that is better than having a great car. When you are picking Larson, you are always going to be gambling. However, I believe he is now much less of a risk than he was at one time.
My Overall Ranking: 10th
4. Austin Dillon - Hard saying who should go in this spot between Dillon, Kahne or Newman. I went with the chase driver of Austin Dillon. I haven't been blown away by Dillon this weekend and his track record isn't anything to write about. But he will have the best car available to RCR on Sunday. Usually that means a solid top 15 from him then. Look, Dillon not going to go out there and challenge for a top 5 finish. Nor will he run inside the top 10 for the entire event. So if you are looking for a driver that will, then you better off looking elsewhere. However, he was good enough on Saturday for me to have confidences in him. In final practice, he posted the 12th-best 10-lap average. That came on laps 6-15. The first 11 drivers posted their ten lap averages on laps 1-10, if you were wondering. Dillon is a consistent driver, remember that! It's what gives him fantasy value, last season his fantasy value was dead because he was inconsistent. Even though, he had more upside in my opinion. Headed into the race, I think he will finish in the 12th-17th place range and have enough upside to sneak inside the top 10. But I think his chances are slim to pull it off though.
My Overall Ranking: 12th
5. Kasey Kahne - You know, I expected JMac to be a lot better than he has been this weekend. I hoenstly didn't expect too much for Kahne. But to my surprise, I am liking Kahne a lot more than I am like JMac. Doesn't matter though, because I love the speed the Hendrick cars are showing this weekend. I really liked what they showed back at Michigan ( a larger intermediate track) and they seem to be building on that as well. All of the HMS cars have speed in them and their allies of Haas (Harvick), along with Ganassi (Larson) have some awesome speed as well. When Kahne is fast, you are knowing you are doing something right. Especially during the chase! Personally, I don't see Kahne as nothing more than top 15 finisher. He may be a little better than that, but let's not push our luck too much. The one huge thing he has going for him is the momentum. Over the past month, the 5 car have been very consistent and getting top 15 finishes after top 15 finishes. Even better, he has put together back-to-back top 10 finishes at Darlington and Richmond. If you are going to use him, then it has a lot to do with the momentum he has going for him right now.
My Overall Ranking: 14th
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott looked awesome in practice, as he was very fast in both practices on Saturday afternoon. He was quick on start of a run and just got better on the long runs in my opinion. He was better than rest of his HMS teammates and I thought Johnson was a top 5 guy in practice. What stood out to me the most about about Elliott was how consistent he was. Just not consistent, but consistently fast! The 24 car will be a major player and not a lot of people are taking him serious outside of your standard Yahoo leagues. If you play formats such as Fantasy Live (on Nascar.com), Draft Kings or something like that. Then you almost have to try to sneak him in your lineup. Starts from 14th and has top 5 potential. That's a winning combo to me. Headed into the race, I have him ranked just ouside of the top 10. But I would be majorly disappointed if Elliott didn't contend for least a top 10 finish. In fact, I am expecting him to be inside the top 5 at some point.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
2. Ryan Blaney - Blaney has been good this weekend overall and has showed pretty good speed in all of the practice sessions. He wasn't close to showing the speed of Chase Elliott, but he should be able to move up at least 5 to 7 spots. And that's pretty the least amount of spots he will move up. If he can go the entire race, without making a mistake then he should be in line for a strong 10 to 12 improvement. The 21 team's biggest issue this season has been finishing out races, because of mistake on pit road or on the racetrack. If they can get Blaney near the top 10, then he will be in great shape. He's a good talent, with the speed to be sneaky good pick in almost every format.
My Overall ranking: 19th
3. Alex Bowman - I haven't really watched Alex much this weekend in terms of practice and stuff, but his teammates has been pretty good since unloading. Among the HMS cars, I would say Alex has looked the worst of the three cars. Bowman will roll off from just outside of the top 15, in the 17th position. Personally I don't see him improving much from there and at the most will find himself somewhere around 13th-18th place. I don't have very high hopes for him overall. If he finishes top 15, then I would say it was a successful weekend for him.
My Overall Ranking: 23rd
Grouping Tier Rankings (via Yahoo format) -
A -
1. Kevin Harvick
2. Kyle Busch
3. Brad Keselowski
4. Jimmie Johnson
5. Denny Hamlin
6. Joey Logano
7. Kurt Busch
8. Matt Kenseth
B -
1. Martin Truex Jr
2. Carl Edwards
3. Kyle Larson
4. Austin Dillon
5. Kasey Kahne
6. Ryan Newman
7. JMac
8. Tony Stewart
9. Paul Menard
10. Greg Biffle
C-
1. Chase Elliott
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Alex Bowman
4. Chris Buescher
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
