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What a year this has been for writing up Fantasy Previews! Man, I cannot tell you how many late nights I had staying up doing research and finalizing articles at 2 or 3 in the morning. It truly takes commitment to sit down and properly write up a good 2 or 3 hour fantasy preview. Yes, I said 2 or 3 hours and that what it takes most times, if you do the proper research and writing it up. Because you not only have to look up past stats, but also stuff like momentum, recent finishes, driver's personal situations and similar track stats. On top of that, you have to put it on paper and make your case for the driver as a fantasy option. Trust me, it is hard work but at end of the night it all worth it.
I had a blast writing up Fantasy Nascar articles this season and wouldn't trade that time for anything. Sure, I had some angry people at my wrong projections and predictions. But that comes with the territory though. To everyone who has checked out my posts every week, I thank you. There's still some work to do though, so grab a cold beer and let's dig into some Homestead stats!
Let's get into today's preview!
1-JMac: JMac has had a good season overall, he made it to the chase before being eliminated in the first round. Since then, he has performed okay. Nothing really special overall, but still good enough to remain for fantasy considerations on a weekly basis. He should be a decent driver this weekend at Homestead. He has ran well here in the past overall. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 9.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 86.3 driver rating. As you can see, he has some appealing numbers in the past two seasons at Homestead. Great numbers? No, but still for JMac those are above average for him. He also has ran decent on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks in the chase.On the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase, he has compiled 19.3 average finish with 17.8 average running position and 74.6 driver rating. Not great numbers overall when you looking at from far away without digging into the data. However, it should be noted that JMac had a terrible race at Kansas. If we only look at Texas, Charlotte and Chicagoland, he has an 13.3 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 83.9 driver rating. Now, those are numbers I can get behind of! Despite, what you may believe the Ganassi cars been pretty fast in the chase, especially on these intermediate tracks. Headed into the weekend, I view JMac as a low-teen driver with upside to steal an top 10 finish!
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is coming off a solid top 10 race at Phoenix and will try to end the season strong. I highly doubt he will contend for the race win, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if he added another top 10 finish to his total in 2016. He has been good over past couple seasons here. He has compiled 3.0 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 114.4 driver rating. Very strong numbers, overall he has posted 3 straight finishes of 6th or better. Including back-to-back finishes of 3rd. He was leading late in the event last season, before a caution came out. Still, he probably would had lost the lead regardless because Kyle Larson was at his bumper. He also has been good on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase. Over the last three 1.5 mile tracks this season (minus Kansas race), he has compiled 8.7 average finish with 7.7 average running position and 98.9 driver rating. He had finishes of 5th and 7th at Chicagoland and Charlotte. At Texas, he had a okay race I guess. He wasn't anything special after the first couple runs. He looked strong all weekend though and ran top 5 before his car went away on the 3rd or 4th run. Headed into the weekend, I would view him as a top 10 driver. He could have top 5 potential, but I am not really banking on that
. I think Penske will give Joey the best car, so Brad probably only has a ceiling of 6th-9th place.
3-Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon should be on your fantasy radar and it shouldn't be questioned either. Despite being wrecked at Texas (the most similar track to Homstead), he was a solid contender and had a top 5 run going before his night ended after being turned. He has a good amount of success on other 1.5 mile tracks in the chase as well. On the other two 1.5 mile tracks, he has compiled 10.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 89.0 driver rating. He also was involved in an accident at Charlotte. So, he been hit or miss so far in the chase. When he does finish out races on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks, he has been able to run quite well. I am very confident in Austin's abilities to produce solid results this weekend at Homestead. The fact that he has ran well at Texas two weeks ago and had speed all weekend at Phoenix last week, tells me that #3 team has found something lately. Headed into the weekend, Dillon should be considered an top 12 to top 15 driver.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick was considered by many the odds-on favorite to win at Phoenix and advance, however that didn't happen as he only finished 4th. After having the best car in the regular and leading the points week after week, he will not be able to contend for the championship. I feel bad for him, but he hasn't had a good chase overall, he was in a hole in every round. Only difference is this time, he wasn't able to pull off the win in the round that was most important so far. He will be a heavy contender at Homestead this weekend in a Chevy for the final time with SHR. He has been awesome here in the past. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 1.5 average finish with 3.5 average running position and 127.5 driver rating. No driver in the series has ran better over that span than Kevin Harvick. He has been a complete stud and that should be expected once again this weekend. He has also performed very well on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase as well. He has compiled 16.3 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 100.6 driver rating. He been bad fast in every race, but two of those races he had trouble. At Chicagoland, he had a great car but spent majority of the race a lap down after being caught on a raw deal on pit road. Then at Charlotte, he had engine issues while contending for a top 5 run. Two races where he had enough speed to be legit contender. Then he followed those bad finishes with runs of 1st (Kansas) and 6th (Texas). So he has been hit or miss in the chase, if he can avoid bad luck, I would say he's a top 5 guy headed into the weekend.
5-Kasey Kahne: For the longest time, I have said consistency is the key baseline to fantasy success. Well, Kasey been exactly that in the chase. Only one driver in the series has piled up more top 15 finishes than Kasey Kahne over the past 8 races (excluding Talladega of course). No, I am not joking. Go and look it up! I love that he has been this consistent. In that span of races, he also has produced 5 Top 10 finishes. If we go back further to last 11 races, he has produced 7 Top 10 finishes and 9 total top 12 finishes. Simply put, Kahne been awesome at racking up quality finishes in latter half of the season. He should be on your fantasy radar this weekend as well. Not only do I love his consistency, but he also has an decent track record lately as well here. Over the past 2 races here, he has compiled 15.5 average finish with 18.5 average running position and 76.4 driver rating. Not great, but still good considering how bad he has ran in recent seasons. His numbers on the other four 1.5 mile intermediate tracks are what stands out the most to me though. On 1.5 mile tracks in the chase, he has compiled 7.0 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 89.5 driver rating. When Kasey is running like this, he is considered a lock for a top 12 finish. He may not always start there, but in the chase he has been spot on with consistently finishing inside the top 12. I will take that any week from him, and at Homestead that is what I am expecting from him. Watch practice to be sure, but he will be a solid fantasy option in a pinch.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin didn't do enough to advance to the championship race at Homestead, despite three quality races in the round of 8. That how fierce the competition is in the Sprint Cup Series, you can do everything right and still not be completing for a championship. Crazy,right? But don't you worry, Hamlin will be able to play spoiler this weekend though. He has a tremendous track record at Homestead. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 8.5 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 109.7 driver rating. Over his past 10 starts here (dating back to 2007), he has only once finished worse than 13th place. In fact in those 10 races, he has posted 7 Top 10 finishes and 4 of those 7 races has ended in 3rd or better. Including 2 wins, the last one coming back in 2013. Overall, he has been awesome at Homestead. I love his chances of stealing a win from one of the championship 4 drivers, even though I would say the odds are against him to accomplish that. Headed into the weekend, I view Hamlin as a boarder-line top 5 driver. Realistically, he is on the outside looking in. Hamlin could be a great off the radar pick, if you are looking to against the majority this weekend at Homestead. Wait and watch practice first, but I like the potential that he brings.
14-Tony Stewart: I usually don't list Tony Stewart in my Fantasy Nascar Preview, however this is his final race of his career, so why not? I have nothing but great respect for Tony Stewart. He had a amazing career. The last 4 years just haven't gone right for him and that's a shame, I do wish him the best going forward. As for this weekend, I think he will be a good top 15 driver. He has been alright overall on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase. On the last four 1.5 mile tracks, he has compiled 18.0 average finish with 19.5 average running position and 70.2 driver rating. The intermediate tracks has been a struggle last seaosn for him and the chase has been no different. His numbers are better than what it shows though. In the first 3 of 4 1.5 mile tracks (Chicagoland, Charlotte and Kansas), he finsihed 16th or better in all three races. Texas was just an off-night for Smoke. Based on what we know already, I would say it pretty safe to assume he will finish in the 12th-18th place range this weekend at Homestead.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is having a awesome chase, no driver in the series has been more consistent overall. Problem is? He hasn't gone to victory lane. That has been his problem throughout his career: winning in the chase. He did it last year at Homestead, can he repeat that success? Absolutely! Rowdy has taken major strides over the past couple seasons when it comes to be cool and collected in these type of situations. He has been great here recently. Over the past three seasons at Homestead, he has compiled 15.7 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 106.3 driver rating. He finished 39th back in 2014, but that been his only bad finish since the 2012 season. In the other three races here, he has produced finishes of 1st, 7th and 4th. And his numbers been strong on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks so far during the chase. On the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase, he has been one of the best drivers. He has compiled 6.0 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 102.2 driver rating. Those are some very solid numbers, they should translate into Rowdy being a race-winning contender this weekend. If I had a concern about him, then it is the lack of speed, he has shown the last two weeks in first half of races. It has definitely been noticeable, as he has struggled to be in contention until later in the races. I am not saying it will kill his chances at winning the title (because I doubt it will do much to him), but I would like to see the #18 Toyota to get off the truck faster this weekend than the previous ones. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 5 driver with winning potential!
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards enters Homestead with his eyes on winning a championship, not many people are giving him much of a chance though. He is the underdog in my opinion, as most people are picking one of the other three drivers to win. However, he may shock everyone this weekend at Homestead. He has always ran well here and I doubt that will change on Sunday. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 19.0 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 83.9 driver rating. Those don't look like great numbers, but he finished 34th place back in 2014. That remains his only one finish worse than 12th place finish over his past 11 races at this track. Over the past 3 of 4 races at Homestead, he had finished either 11th or 12th. Including an 11th place finish in his lone start with JGR. He was stout in last season's event here though. He started 7th, finished 11th, held 7.0 average running position with 101.8 driver rating. He had the T-5th best average running position and 6th-best driver rating. Another thing I like about him? The way he ran at Texas a couple weeks ago. Texas is the most similar racetrack to Homestead and he was stout inside the top 5 all race long, that could definitely lead to good things this weekend. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 driver with enough upside to finish inside the top 5.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth always for some reason land on the bad end of wrecks since joining JGR. No, I mean really does he ever have any luck up front? Seriously, I could probably write a book on Kenseth's bad luck in the #20 car. Well, to nobody surprise he got wrecked on next to final restart at Phoenix last weekend. Prior to that, he was in a position to advance to the championship race. He outperformed both Kyle Busch and Joey Logano easily for entire second half of the event. Just dumb luck on his part, I cannot even pin blame on any specific driver on that deal. It was a combination of things really. How will he fair this weekend at Homestead? I am not sure, but he should be pretty good though. He has done well at this track before. Over his past 3 races here, he has compiled 5.0 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 114.9 driver rating. His performance numbers in those 3 races has been top-notch. His average running position is tied for best in the series with Logano and his Driver rating ranked as 3rd-best in the series. So yeah, he has been pretty damn good here recently and always been solid at this track. With 7 of the last 11 races overall has ended in 7th place or better. In fact, he has posted 8 finishes of 9th or better in those 11 races. That's solid! He been pretty good at other 1.5 mile tracks as well. On the other four 1.5 mile tracks in the chase, he has compiled 6.8 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 100.8 driver rating. Very strong numbers, his average finish ranked as 4th-best in the series. His average running position ranked as 6th-best in the series and his driver rating ranked as 7th-best. Headed into the weekend, I view him as top 10 threat and someone definitely in striking distance to swipe an top 5 finish.
22-Joey Logano: Logano over the past two races has had the best-car overall and finally put himself in victory lane at Phoenix. Now, he will look to go back-to-back wins on Sunday at Homestead and win the championship. When looking at it, I find it very hard to deny that he is the favorite. No driver in the series has ran quite as well as Logano on the 1.5 mile in the chase. On 1.5 mile track in the chase (minus Charlotte), he has compiled 2.3 average finish with 4.3 average running position and 122.5 driver rating. When comparing him to the competition overall, it really hasn't been close like at all when looking at the numbers. His 2.3 average finish is ranked as best (2nd-best is Martin Truex Jr - 5.0), his 4.3 average running position is ranked best (2nd-best is Carl Edwards - 6.3) and his 122.5 driver rating once again ranked as best (2nd-best is Martin Truex Jr - 115.5). On top of that, he has been just awesome from a momentum standpoint as well. Over the past 5 Sprint cup Series races, he has posted 4 Top 3 finishes. Including 2 wins in the past 3 races. Not only that, but he hasn't finished worse than 9th place in that span. At start of the season, I said Joey Logano was gonna win the championship. I still believe that a real possibility. He should one your short-list of possible winners this weekend!
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott had a strong showing at Phoenix in the early stages, but faded late in the race to an 9th place finish. It hard to say what to expect from Elliott, since he has never raced at Homestead at the Cup level before. However, he still fine since he has been one of the best drivers on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase. On the four 1.5 mile tracks in the chase, he has compiled 17.8 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 110.2 driver rating. You probably look at his 17.8 average finish and say meh he hasn't been very good. And that's why final finish position is so overrated! Performance numbers (average running position and driver rating) are far more reliable. His 8.3 average running position and 110.2 driver rating are both ranked inside the top 4 in the series in that 4-race sample. Back at Texas, he was very strong. He had about the 4th-best racecar in that race, and this was a day when he was feeling ill. If Elliott can run top 5, while not feeling 100%, then imagine what he could do this weekend? It's a scary thought folks. He is a easy top 10 driver headed into the race with clear upside to contend for a top 5 finish.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch was eliminated from the chase and nobody was really shocked about it. He did get a top 5 finish at Phoenix and that only was his 3rd top 5 finish over his past 17 races this season, also remember Phoenix is about track position, too. He won't be able to repeat that sort of success this weekend at Homestead. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 9.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 92.7 driver rating. So he hasn't been bad overall at Homestead, but his numbers on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks are a little more concerning though. On 1.5 mile tracks in the chase, he has compiled 13.5 average finish with 15.5 average running position and 75.4 driver rating. Not really that of numbers, if you are considering him as a fantasy option in most formats. Headed into the weekend, I would view him as a top high-single digit driver to low teen driver. Likely finish range would be 9th-13th place most likely. Most chase races that has been his outcome.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson produced his 9th Top 5 of the 2016 season, which sets a new-career high for him. He could add to that total this weekend at Homestead. On twitter, he said this is his favorite track. And for good reason. last season he almost went to victory lane. If that caution didn't come out, I am certain he would had passed Keselowski with another lap or two. Also, he will run all three races this weekend, so there's extra on-track time for him. He also has performed well on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase. On the other three 1.5 mile track (excluding the Kansas race - finished 30th), he has compiled 12.7 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 95.3 driver rating. He had finishes of 18th (Chicagoland), 5th (Charlotte) and 15th (Texas). He had about 8th place car at Chicagoland, but had a tire go down while running 7th place. Ended up a lap down with about 10 laps to go. He was strong at Charlotte and rebounded for a impressive run. At Texas, he was very good in the early going. He may had the best car on the long runs, before the handling went away on his car. At homestead, the fastest way around the track is up against the wall. Kyle does that better than anyone, he proved that last year here. Headed into the race, I view him as a top 10 driver with major upside.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie Johnson has the chance to do something special, something only two other driver has done ever. Win 7 championships. Johnson already has stabilized himself as one of the greatest drivers ever, but winning another championship would only further make his case. I think Johnson will be one of the heavy favorites to win this weekend. He has been quite impressive on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase so far. On the other four 1.5 mile tracks in the chase, he has compiled 7.0 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 114.3 driver rating. Awesome numbers, but they should be even better than that. He got penalty late in the Chiagoland race while running 2nd and had to settle for an 12th place finish. He won at Charlotte, then he finished 4th at Kansas. And weeks ago at Texas, he was running about 7th before he pitted late in the race. It was raining the 48 team was in a position to gamble and sadly it didn't pay off. He finished 11th that night, a night where he probably had nothing more than a top 10 car. Headed into the weekend, I think Johnson should be considered an top 5 driver with a good chance to win the race.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr's terrible luck in 2016 continued at Phoenix, but he will look to end the 2016 season on a high-note though. I would say that Homestead is his best racetrack from a career point of view. Over the past 2 seasons, he really hasn't gotten the results that he is capable of. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 14.5 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. His numbers throughout his career are straight up impressive though. Over his past 10 races overall, he has posted 9 Top 12 finishes. Including 7 Top 10 finishes. He had finishes of 4th-6th place from 2011 to 2014, back in his MWR days. Just hasn't had that great run with FRR yet. I think that could change this weekend though. And remember, it was just a couple weeks ago at Texas that he had agrubly the 3rd-best car and contended for the win. He also had a great car at Texas back in the spring time. Two solid runs at Texas this season. Now I know that doesn't mean it will automatically translate, but you have to feel about his chances though. He has nothing to race for, other than playing spoiler. Just maybe that enough motivation for him to go out there and do just that. Headed into the weekend, Truex Jr is likely an top bottom-end Top 5 driver or at worst an high-end top 10 driver. I love him as a fantasy option this weekend, he is one of few non-championship contenders that I really like.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
I really hope my Fantasy Previews were helpful, I will definitely miss writing up these Previews every Monday night. Have a great week!
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
