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Fantasy Nascar Update -
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - Weather you like it or not, Kevin Harvick is the man to beat this weekend. I don't think he has the best or anything close to what we seen in the past. However, I still find it very difficult to believe that he won't be a heavy contender for at least a top 5 finish. And when a driver like Kevin can run up front at a place like Phoenix, you just know he will have the potential to win. It kinda like back in March, when he won. He didn't have a dominant car in practice like we saw over last couple seasons, but when it counted most he was at the front and driving away from the field. His team said they believe they are going to win on Sunday. That says a lot about Kevin's chances on Sunday, his team already thinking they are going to win. I love that, because usually teams try to dumb down their chances to throw off the competition. Not the #4 team though. Plain and simple, he has won 6 times over the past 8 Phoenix races. Even if he looked like shit in practice, I would still take my chances with him. He's that good here. I expect him to contend for a top 5 finish and possibly go to victory lane. If there ever been a lock at Phoenix, then Kevin Harvick is it.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Joey Logano - Logano may be the favorite to knock off Kevin Harvick at Phoenix this weekend. There are many things to love about him, but the one that stands out is the speed out of the #22 Ford over the past couple races. Last week at Texas, he looked awesome and probably would had won, if the race was held in day time hours. Also he has great stats here overall. If you take out his poor 18th place finish in March, he has 5 straight Top 9 finishes. All 5 of those races, he had driver ratings over 107.0. He had led in 4 of those 5 races as well. In the spring race, he just wasn't very good. I expect him to be much improved this time around though. He has many things going for him. He has momentum, great stats and a very fast racecar this weekend. He looked awesome on Friday in racetrim, of the drivers who practiced in racetrim, he looked the best. He followed that up with a strong 4th-place qualifying effort. On Saturday, he looked pretty good as well. I would say the 3 pm EDT session is more important with similar track temps (Air temps about the same in both sessions though - not really as important). He looked pretty fast, but mainly focused on short runs. He didn't post any long runs though. In final practice, he looked pretty good on his opening ten-lap run. He was good throughout the entire final session on Saturday. With the likes of Bowman, Larson and Elliott in front of him, he could get a big jump on his chase contenders.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin was considered one of the favoirtes headed into the weekend and much really haven't changed in my opinion. His strong starting position (5th) should give him the edge on most of the other chase contenders. I really haven't paid much attention to him, but there's little doubt in my mind that Hamlin won't contend for at least a top 10 or better. Personally, I think he will contend for a top 5 if everything goes according to plan. He looked very good in the first session, with posting the 10th-best single fastest lap and 8th-best ten lap average. Honestly, I probably ranked Hamlin a spot or two higher than he deserves. On pure speed, I would say he is just outside of the top 5. Maybe around 6th or 7th, if I had to guess this weekend. However, I consider him an short-flat ace. Which means, he excels on this type of track. There's only a few driver who can claim this title, there's a reason why he has always performed well at this place and other shorter-flats. He also has a pretty good car this weekend. I doubt we see him win, but he will be in contention. What could put him over the top? His pit crew. Last week, we saw his teammate win the race because of his pit crew fast efforts. He is starting 5th and just might have the edge with that great pit selection and fast pit crew.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Brad Keselowski - The 4th spot in this tier of drivers is tough because you could proabbly throw a blanket over Keselowski, Busch and Johnson. They are all close when you consider all of the factors such as speed in the chase, momentum, motivational, long run speed, track history,etc. I give Keslowski the short edge for a couple reasons. He isn't battling for the championsip, but the Penske Fords has been very strong recently in the chase. The #22 car getting the good stuff, but don't be fooled though. They are giving Keselowski some awesome cars. 2nd place at Martinsville, had some speed at Texas before fading out of contention and have speed once again this weekend. And trust me, the #2 team would love nothing more to prevent some other chase contenders from advancing to Homestead. He has a car that is capable of winning. He will start from 14th, but I think everyone is expecting him to be up front at some point. Personally, I think his teammate has the car to beat for Sunday's race. If that's the chase, then it should only further makes Keselowski's case as a great fantasy option. The #2 car will challenge for at least a top 10 finish and most likely a top 5 finish. If, he everything goes according to plan.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
5. Kyle Busch - The final driver in this tier comes down to Kyle Busch or Jimmie Johnson. I gave Busch the spot because he is racing for more this weekend and Busch usually rise up when he needs to a big-time finish. He did last year every time and has done same this season. Personally, I think Johnson is a tick faster, but how much motivation will he have if he cannot win the race? Remember last week? He gambled and it didn't pay off a the end of the race. Rowdy looked pretty good overall on Saturday, I would say. He looked better in final practice than the first session. However, I am very confident in the #18 car for Sunday's race. He has a car that is good enough to contend for the win and should be able to drive through the field. My concern is that the speed of late in the #18 car. It seems like he doesn't have the same speed he had earlier in the year. He will still be good, but doesn't have the same appeal to him as he once did. Headed into Sunday's race, Rowdy has easy top 10 potential with major upside to finish inside the top 5 and win the race. If Rowdy finishes worse than 7th or 8th, I would be extremely shocked. In other words, his floor is extremely high and his ceiling is even higher.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
Other options - Johnson (6th), Kenseth (8th), and Kurt Busch (12th)
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Edwards is fresh off his win last weekend at Texas and will look to win another race this weekend at Phoenix. I honestly don't see him winning this weekend though, he been good but just about that. Looked like a top 10 driver on the speed charts, but I am just not sure if he will be able to challenge for a top 5 finish though. With him locked into the championship race, I am not sure if he is a great fantasy option either. He has a great record here and almost won earlier this season back in March. However, I just haven't seen enough to say he is a legit fantasy option to consider. Headed into the week, I thought he would be around a top 10 contender and that exactly what he is shaping up to look like. If he gonna finish inside the top 5 or win on Sunday, I think it will be on a gamble or something like that.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
2. Kyle Larson - Martin Truex Jr would had gotten the 2nd spot in this tier of drivers, but he is starting dead last for Sunday's race. So that will bump him a spot in my rankings. Kyle Larson on the other hand will start from the front row. The driver of the No.42 car has been qualifying well lately. He has now back-to-back top 5 starts in last two races. He looked great last week, before fading in the later stages of the race. How has he looked this weekend so far? He looked pretty good for the most part in two practices. His lap times hasn't been bad at all and look competitive enough for him to be considered an top 10 driver. In the first session on Saturday, he posted the 4th-best single lap and 3rd-best ten lap average. Then he followed that up in final practice with 7th-best single fastest lap and 5th-best ten lap average. The most noticeable thing about Kyle Larson this weekend? He has good long run speed, when he has long run speed it usually leads to great things for him. If I had to choose to use him this weekend or next, I might just use him at Phoenix. He has a legit shot to finish inside the top 10 and enough upside to come away with an top 5 finish.
My Overall Ranking:10th
3. Martin Truex Jr - The 78 car will start from the 40th position on Sunday afternoon and try to make his way through the field. He has a very fast car and will need to likely need some caution at some point to truly get into race contention. Personally, I think it will be quite difficult to start last and drive all way to the front. Too challenging at a place like Phoenix with lap times not falling off too much. I am not too concerned about him starting deep in the field, I personally think he will be able to get inside the top 15 or maybe top 12 without any problems. After that, he will need track position to move forward. Usually that how it goes at Phoenix, with a fast car you can move up to about 10th or 12th before progress stalls overall. I like him as a high-single digit driver or maybe at worse a very low-teen driver. I personally have higher hopes for him at Homestead, but he will be good on Sunday. Him in a early hole will hurt him some though, but it doesn't kill his fantasy value though.
My Overall Ranking: 11th
4. Austin Dillon - The big storyline this week has been the Austin Dillon/Kevin Harvick's feud. Many questioned weather Dillon would try anything on Harvick in Sunday's race. I say that is still up for debate, personally I don't think he will. I am sure, Dillon will race him harder than usual. However, I think Dillon will be content will making him nervous. It might be almost as good to him. As for this weekend, the #3 car has looked pretty darn good overall. Good amount of speed in the #3 car. I am not sure what he has for the long run, but good short run speed. And remember the RCR looked pretty back in March too. 2 of them wrecked because of melted beams in the tire though. Dillon looks to be boarderline top 10 on speed, in my opinion. I think last week strong run has given this raceteam some confident in themselves. He also starting 7th, so that's back-to-back top 7 starts for the #3 car. Maybe this time, he can bring home in one piece. If he does, the reward for fantasy players will be worth it no doubt. If I had him available to me in Yahoo Fantasy Racing, I would use him.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
5. Kasey Kahne - Kasey Kahne has good speed this weekend once again and should be able to challenge another top 15 finish. I didn't really pay much attention outside of his first run in practice session. But when comparing to the competition, he was better than some of the bigger names in the sport in the final practice session. Of course that was only run, so things could had easily changed in the next couple runs on the tracks. However, you aren't considering Kahne for his practice speed at Pheonix. You are most likely appealed to Kahne because of his hot streak of late. Over the past 10 races this season, he has posted 7 Top 10 finishes and 9 Top 12 finishes. The only race he had finish worse than 12th place was Talladega. Folks, he is on a tear (for him anyways). I don't have much to say about Kahne. He been inconsistent over the years, but he is rewriting the history books (temporarily) lately. When you can get type of production of him, you better get on your knees and kiss the ground. I view him as a top 12 to top 15 driver headed into the race, with upside to steal a top 10 finish.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
Other Options - Jamie Mac (16th), Ryan Newman (17th), Menard (19th) and Stenhouse Jr (20th)
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott has looked great all weekend long and will start from the 3rd starting position. He has a lot of speed and will be very capable of leading a lap in the early going. The only two drivers in front of him at the start will be Bowman and Larson. I thought Elliott was little better overall than both of those cars in practice, so there's a chance he could get around both of those cars on the start. Of course h has some very fast car behind him on the start as well. Hard to say, what will happen honestly. Personally, I think Elliott will contend for at least a top 10 finish and more than likely find himself in a position to challenge for the win. He has legit long run speed. I watched his lap times and they definitely didn't fall-off that much. In fact, he posted the 2nd and 3rd-best ten lap averages in the two practice sessions on Saturday. The #24 car is definitely someone to keep an eye on in Sunday's race, I expect him to be a force to be reckon with in the race.
My Overall Ranking: 9th
2. Alex Bowman - Bowman will start from the pole for Sunday's race and he should be able to stay somewhat in contention. I don't really see him staying at the front, not because he isn't fast though. He has an awesome car this weekend, it was so good he only did 50 laps. In fact, he started off practice with a impressive 50-lap run. After that, they packed it away for the day. The 88 team was happy with their car for the race. With that said, Bowman usually has the shitty luck. Anytime it seems he is going to have a big day, something goes wrong for him. I hope it doesn't because I would love to get some solid fantasy points out of him, but I have a feeling he might be in store for another disappointing run. Despite being very fast with the #88 team. Dale Jr won this race last year for anyone wondering. Also had a rocket on the long run earlier this year. Anyone shocked that Bowman is showing similar speed? You shouldn't be.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
3. Ryan Blaney - Blaney hasn't been bad this weekend, but the two drivers above has been awesome. Blaney will start from the 8th starting position and should have a legit shot at finishing inside the top 15, if not the top 10. He has looked good since unloading but hard seeing him going up there and contending for a top 5 finish again like in March. Even though, it won't be impossible. If the 21 team give him a few changes, I think the 21 car will be a very solid top 10 car. As of right now, I say he is more on the boarder-line of being just outside of the top 10 driver though. Pheonix kinda fits into the 21 team wheelhouse though. They seems to excel more at places like Phoenix for some reason. That's a good thing for them though. One of the reasons, I had this race circled on the schedule for so long. Headed into the race, I view him as a finisher between 13th-18th place with upside to challenge for a top 10
My Overall Ranking: 18th
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Update -
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - Weather you like it or not, Kevin Harvick is the man to beat this weekend. I don't think he has the best or anything close to what we seen in the past. However, I still find it very difficult to believe that he won't be a heavy contender for at least a top 5 finish. And when a driver like Kevin can run up front at a place like Phoenix, you just know he will have the potential to win. It kinda like back in March, when he won. He didn't have a dominant car in practice like we saw over last couple seasons, but when it counted most he was at the front and driving away from the field. His team said they believe they are going to win on Sunday. That says a lot about Kevin's chances on Sunday, his team already thinking they are going to win. I love that, because usually teams try to dumb down their chances to throw off the competition. Not the #4 team though. Plain and simple, he has won 6 times over the past 8 Phoenix races. Even if he looked like shit in practice, I would still take my chances with him. He's that good here. I expect him to contend for a top 5 finish and possibly go to victory lane. If there ever been a lock at Phoenix, then Kevin Harvick is it.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Joey Logano - Logano may be the favorite to knock off Kevin Harvick at Phoenix this weekend. There are many things to love about him, but the one that stands out is the speed out of the #22 Ford over the past couple races. Last week at Texas, he looked awesome and probably would had won, if the race was held in day time hours. Also he has great stats here overall. If you take out his poor 18th place finish in March, he has 5 straight Top 9 finishes. All 5 of those races, he had driver ratings over 107.0. He had led in 4 of those 5 races as well. In the spring race, he just wasn't very good. I expect him to be much improved this time around though. He has many things going for him. He has momentum, great stats and a very fast racecar this weekend. He looked awesome on Friday in racetrim, of the drivers who practiced in racetrim, he looked the best. He followed that up with a strong 4th-place qualifying effort. On Saturday, he looked pretty good as well. I would say the 3 pm EDT session is more important with similar track temps (Air temps about the same in both sessions though - not really as important). He looked pretty fast, but mainly focused on short runs. He didn't post any long runs though. In final practice, he looked pretty good on his opening ten-lap run. He was good throughout the entire final session on Saturday. With the likes of Bowman, Larson and Elliott in front of him, he could get a big jump on his chase contenders.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin was considered one of the favoirtes headed into the weekend and much really haven't changed in my opinion. His strong starting position (5th) should give him the edge on most of the other chase contenders. I really haven't paid much attention to him, but there's little doubt in my mind that Hamlin won't contend for at least a top 10 or better. Personally, I think he will contend for a top 5 if everything goes according to plan. He looked very good in the first session, with posting the 10th-best single fastest lap and 8th-best ten lap average. Honestly, I probably ranked Hamlin a spot or two higher than he deserves. On pure speed, I would say he is just outside of the top 5. Maybe around 6th or 7th, if I had to guess this weekend. However, I consider him an short-flat ace. Which means, he excels on this type of track. There's only a few driver who can claim this title, there's a reason why he has always performed well at this place and other shorter-flats. He also has a pretty good car this weekend. I doubt we see him win, but he will be in contention. What could put him over the top? His pit crew. Last week, we saw his teammate win the race because of his pit crew fast efforts. He is starting 5th and just might have the edge with that great pit selection and fast pit crew.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Brad Keselowski - The 4th spot in this tier of drivers is tough because you could proabbly throw a blanket over Keselowski, Busch and Johnson. They are all close when you consider all of the factors such as speed in the chase, momentum, motivational, long run speed, track history,etc. I give Keslowski the short edge for a couple reasons. He isn't battling for the championsip, but the Penske Fords has been very strong recently in the chase. The #22 car getting the good stuff, but don't be fooled though. They are giving Keselowski some awesome cars. 2nd place at Martinsville, had some speed at Texas before fading out of contention and have speed once again this weekend. And trust me, the #2 team would love nothing more to prevent some other chase contenders from advancing to Homestead. He has a car that is capable of winning. He will start from 14th, but I think everyone is expecting him to be up front at some point. Personally, I think his teammate has the car to beat for Sunday's race. If that's the chase, then it should only further makes Keselowski's case as a great fantasy option. The #2 car will challenge for at least a top 10 finish and most likely a top 5 finish. If, he everything goes according to plan.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
5. Kyle Busch - The final driver in this tier comes down to Kyle Busch or Jimmie Johnson. I gave Busch the spot because he is racing for more this weekend and Busch usually rise up when he needs to a big-time finish. He did last year every time and has done same this season. Personally, I think Johnson is a tick faster, but how much motivation will he have if he cannot win the race? Remember last week? He gambled and it didn't pay off a the end of the race. Rowdy looked pretty good overall on Saturday, I would say. He looked better in final practice than the first session. However, I am very confident in the #18 car for Sunday's race. He has a car that is good enough to contend for the win and should be able to drive through the field. My concern is that the speed of late in the #18 car. It seems like he doesn't have the same speed he had earlier in the year. He will still be good, but doesn't have the same appeal to him as he once did. Headed into Sunday's race, Rowdy has easy top 10 potential with major upside to finish inside the top 5 and win the race. If Rowdy finishes worse than 7th or 8th, I would be extremely shocked. In other words, his floor is extremely high and his ceiling is even higher.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
Other options - Johnson (6th), Kenseth (8th), and Kurt Busch (12th)
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Edwards is fresh off his win last weekend at Texas and will look to win another race this weekend at Phoenix. I honestly don't see him winning this weekend though, he been good but just about that. Looked like a top 10 driver on the speed charts, but I am just not sure if he will be able to challenge for a top 5 finish though. With him locked into the championship race, I am not sure if he is a great fantasy option either. He has a great record here and almost won earlier this season back in March. However, I just haven't seen enough to say he is a legit fantasy option to consider. Headed into the week, I thought he would be around a top 10 contender and that exactly what he is shaping up to look like. If he gonna finish inside the top 5 or win on Sunday, I think it will be on a gamble or something like that.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
2. Kyle Larson - Martin Truex Jr would had gotten the 2nd spot in this tier of drivers, but he is starting dead last for Sunday's race. So that will bump him a spot in my rankings. Kyle Larson on the other hand will start from the front row. The driver of the No.42 car has been qualifying well lately. He has now back-to-back top 5 starts in last two races. He looked great last week, before fading in the later stages of the race. How has he looked this weekend so far? He looked pretty good for the most part in two practices. His lap times hasn't been bad at all and look competitive enough for him to be considered an top 10 driver. In the first session on Saturday, he posted the 4th-best single lap and 3rd-best ten lap average. Then he followed that up in final practice with 7th-best single fastest lap and 5th-best ten lap average. The most noticeable thing about Kyle Larson this weekend? He has good long run speed, when he has long run speed it usually leads to great things for him. If I had to choose to use him this weekend or next, I might just use him at Phoenix. He has a legit shot to finish inside the top 10 and enough upside to come away with an top 5 finish.
My Overall Ranking:10th
3. Martin Truex Jr - The 78 car will start from the 40th position on Sunday afternoon and try to make his way through the field. He has a very fast car and will need to likely need some caution at some point to truly get into race contention. Personally, I think it will be quite difficult to start last and drive all way to the front. Too challenging at a place like Phoenix with lap times not falling off too much. I am not too concerned about him starting deep in the field, I personally think he will be able to get inside the top 15 or maybe top 12 without any problems. After that, he will need track position to move forward. Usually that how it goes at Phoenix, with a fast car you can move up to about 10th or 12th before progress stalls overall. I like him as a high-single digit driver or maybe at worse a very low-teen driver. I personally have higher hopes for him at Homestead, but he will be good on Sunday. Him in a early hole will hurt him some though, but it doesn't kill his fantasy value though.
My Overall Ranking: 11th
4. Austin Dillon - The big storyline this week has been the Austin Dillon/Kevin Harvick's feud. Many questioned weather Dillon would try anything on Harvick in Sunday's race. I say that is still up for debate, personally I don't think he will. I am sure, Dillon will race him harder than usual. However, I think Dillon will be content will making him nervous. It might be almost as good to him. As for this weekend, the #3 car has looked pretty darn good overall. Good amount of speed in the #3 car. I am not sure what he has for the long run, but good short run speed. And remember the RCR looked pretty back in March too. 2 of them wrecked because of melted beams in the tire though. Dillon looks to be boarderline top 10 on speed, in my opinion. I think last week strong run has given this raceteam some confident in themselves. He also starting 7th, so that's back-to-back top 7 starts for the #3 car. Maybe this time, he can bring home in one piece. If he does, the reward for fantasy players will be worth it no doubt. If I had him available to me in Yahoo Fantasy Racing, I would use him.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
5. Kasey Kahne - Kasey Kahne has good speed this weekend once again and should be able to challenge another top 15 finish. I didn't really pay much attention outside of his first run in practice session. But when comparing to the competition, he was better than some of the bigger names in the sport in the final practice session. Of course that was only run, so things could had easily changed in the next couple runs on the tracks. However, you aren't considering Kahne for his practice speed at Pheonix. You are most likely appealed to Kahne because of his hot streak of late. Over the past 10 races this season, he has posted 7 Top 10 finishes and 9 Top 12 finishes. The only race he had finish worse than 12th place was Talladega. Folks, he is on a tear (for him anyways). I don't have much to say about Kahne. He been inconsistent over the years, but he is rewriting the history books (temporarily) lately. When you can get type of production of him, you better get on your knees and kiss the ground. I view him as a top 12 to top 15 driver headed into the race, with upside to steal a top 10 finish.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
Other Options - Jamie Mac (16th), Ryan Newman (17th), Menard (19th) and Stenhouse Jr (20th)
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott has looked great all weekend long and will start from the 3rd starting position. He has a lot of speed and will be very capable of leading a lap in the early going. The only two drivers in front of him at the start will be Bowman and Larson. I thought Elliott was little better overall than both of those cars in practice, so there's a chance he could get around both of those cars on the start. Of course h has some very fast car behind him on the start as well. Hard to say, what will happen honestly. Personally, I think Elliott will contend for at least a top 10 finish and more than likely find himself in a position to challenge for the win. He has legit long run speed. I watched his lap times and they definitely didn't fall-off that much. In fact, he posted the 2nd and 3rd-best ten lap averages in the two practice sessions on Saturday. The #24 car is definitely someone to keep an eye on in Sunday's race, I expect him to be a force to be reckon with in the race.
My Overall Ranking: 9th
2. Alex Bowman - Bowman will start from the pole for Sunday's race and he should be able to stay somewhat in contention. I don't really see him staying at the front, not because he isn't fast though. He has an awesome car this weekend, it was so good he only did 50 laps. In fact, he started off practice with a impressive 50-lap run. After that, they packed it away for the day. The 88 team was happy with their car for the race. With that said, Bowman usually has the shitty luck. Anytime it seems he is going to have a big day, something goes wrong for him. I hope it doesn't because I would love to get some solid fantasy points out of him, but I have a feeling he might be in store for another disappointing run. Despite being very fast with the #88 team. Dale Jr won this race last year for anyone wondering. Also had a rocket on the long run earlier this year. Anyone shocked that Bowman is showing similar speed? You shouldn't be.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
3. Ryan Blaney - Blaney hasn't been bad this weekend, but the two drivers above has been awesome. Blaney will start from the 8th starting position and should have a legit shot at finishing inside the top 15, if not the top 10. He has looked good since unloading but hard seeing him going up there and contending for a top 5 finish again like in March. Even though, it won't be impossible. If the 21 team give him a few changes, I think the 21 car will be a very solid top 10 car. As of right now, I say he is more on the boarder-line of being just outside of the top 10 driver though. Pheonix kinda fits into the 21 team wheelhouse though. They seems to excel more at places like Phoenix for some reason. That's a good thing for them though. One of the reasons, I had this race circled on the schedule for so long. Headed into the race, I view him as a finisher between 13th-18th place with upside to challenge for a top 10
My Overall Ranking: 18th
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
