Welcome to TimersSports
Well, we made it to Homestead the final race of the 2016 season! I haven't had the chance to make many posts this year and that sucks. Because I really do enjoy writing up Fantasy Nascar posts for this site. I don't claim to be any sort of expert when it comes to Fantasy Nascar, but if I had an expertise it would fall under sleeper aspect of the game. I love sleepers because they are the ultimate equalizers. Most fantasy players out there usually go with the safe sure things and that's cool. But I hate being normal, it is okay to be different. I always had thrived doing that, do my picks always work out? Hell no! But when they do, it is so bitter sweet. Remember, you miss 100% shots you don't take. I much rather take a gamble and miss, than not gamble and regret it. It part of the game sometimes, it all about knowing when to take that shot in the dark and with what driver.
As for today's post, I am debuting a brand new article called the Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Dark Horses! I hope to use this as my feature post next season on this site, so hopefully everyone likes this direction I am going. I use to use Sleepers & Busts for my articles, but the Busts were too complicated for my liking. You could make predictions on busts, but they are too difficult to pinpoint. So I steered away from them. Question now on everyone minds' probably is, ''what's the different between sleepers and dark horses?'' Well, sleepers are value based. As for Fantasy Nascar, it pretty simple actually! Commonly most sleepers are drivers whom has good potential based off typically track record, momentum or similar track success, but aren't getting the credit or attention they deserve for it. Meaning they are under the radar and therefore have a higher fantasy value.
How about Dark horses? They are commonly mistaken for sleepers, but make no mistake they are significantly different than sleepers. Sleepers are commonly drivers whom hasn't broken out yet, while Dark Horses are drivers who has proved themselves as threats. However, while they are threats it seems unlikely for them to pull off the win. Even though, they will have great potential to accomplish that feat. So to shorten it up, sleepers are to do with value and dark horses are potential winners. Got it? Great!
Let's get started!
Sleepers -
AJ Dinger - When we think of sleepers at Homestead, we never really think of a guy like AJ Dinger but he has ran well in the and has ran well at Homestead in his career. In 7 career starts at Homestead, he has finished inside the top 20 five (5) times. Last season, he finished 20th place after qualifying in the 20th position. It wasn't a great performance, but it still was pretty good overall. Otherwise, the driver of the #47 car has finished 36th in his other start in the #47 car at Homestead in 2015. So why do I like him so much? His finsihes in the chase stand out to me. As he has posted 5 straight Top 17 finishes in the past 5 races. During the chase overall, he has finished 7 of 9 races inside the top 20. If we go back to Pocono (15 races ago) in August, he has finished 12 of 15 inside the top 20. Pretty good, don't you think? How has he fair on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase? He has finished 17th or better in 3 of 4 during the chase. AJ Dinger has looked good this weekend so far with top 20 potential based off of practice. Another top 17 finish seems very likely!
Michael McDowell - McDowell doesn't have the greatest track record at Homestead or the most known driver as a legit fantasy pick, however he could be a great sleeper based on his recent results during the second half of the season though. Especially during the chase as he has been one of the best fantasy values in the series! If we take out his 33rd place finish last week, he has produced 5 straight finishes between 14th-23rd from Charlotte to Texas. In that span of races, he has finished 23rd or better on all three 1.5 mile tracks. You can expect another top 25 finish from Michael McDowell this weekend. He is looking to close out the season on a high-note and I think that is very possible for him to accomplish that!
Austin Dillon - You could make a good case that Dillon is more of a dark horse than a sleeper, but he really hasn't contended up front enough to warrant dark horse potential yet. Sure, he has contended for a couple top 5 finishes this season, but more often than he has hung in the teens for mainly. I personally think he is a year from truly busting out at the cup level, the potential is definitely there though. As for this weekend, Austin Dillon could be a very solid sleeper for fantasy players. He has shown good speed, much like the previous two race weekends. And his numbers on the 1.5 mile tracks has been pretty good as well. He didn't get the finish he deserved a couple weeks ago at Texas, but stood out throughout that event. He also had a pair of good runs at Kansas (6th) and Chicagoland (14th). Also in final practice, he showed some good long run speed which was encouraging to see out of him. I think he could finish inside the top 10, but with that said I also could see him wrecking as well. Over the past two seasons that has been the trend for him on the 1.5 mile tracks. Finish in or near the top 10 or wreck out. He been more consistent this season, but so far he is 50% of finishing well on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase. He's risky, but a good gamble to take though.
Dark Horses -
Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson will have a great shot at going to victory lane on Sunday afternoon! Everyone knows how he loves Homestead, in fact he loves it so much he wanted to race in all three races this weekend. He likes putting his car up at the top and that where he makes up so much ground on the top. No driver in the series does it better than him, with that said he also smack the wall more often too. This weekend, he has flat out been impressive! He has okay short run speed, but boy that car been something fierce on the long run! It was clear as day in practice that the 42 car has the car to beat on the long runs. His lap times were ridiculous compared to the competition. Question will it translate into the race? I don't know honestly. Part of me wants to believe he will be able to back it up in the race. However, the race fan in me knows something will go wrong with Larson. As always, Larson is a high-risk/high-reward pick. He has unlimited potential, but he needs to finish today race though. If he doesn't, I am willing to say it will because of the wall. That's my big concern with him, to tell you the truth.
Chase Elliott - It will be difficult to overlook the Driver of the No.24 car on Sunday afternoon. He has ran very well on the intermediate racetracks this season and definitely has been a standout during the chase as well. I cannot name one poor performance by the 24 team on the intermediate, as he had legit top 5 speed in all four 1.5 mile tracks. Two races ago, he was a top 5 driver at Texas. That's important because it has similar characterizes to Homestead. The fall-off is most obvious as we see a similar drop-off and same tire as well. To no surprise, Elliott has looked like one of the drivers to beat in practice on Saturday. Also, Elliott is great at managing his equipment which is key at a place like Homestead. He is able to go fast without abusing his tires, so he usually a good bet to have something for the leaders on the long runs. I like him a lot in the season's finale. He has one more chance to get to victory lane and I think he has good shot as anyone out there!
Thanks for reading,
Garry Briggs
Twitter - @Garryy12
Well, we made it to Homestead the final race of the 2016 season! I haven't had the chance to make many posts this year and that sucks. Because I really do enjoy writing up Fantasy Nascar posts for this site. I don't claim to be any sort of expert when it comes to Fantasy Nascar, but if I had an expertise it would fall under sleeper aspect of the game. I love sleepers because they are the ultimate equalizers. Most fantasy players out there usually go with the safe sure things and that's cool. But I hate being normal, it is okay to be different. I always had thrived doing that, do my picks always work out? Hell no! But when they do, it is so bitter sweet. Remember, you miss 100% shots you don't take. I much rather take a gamble and miss, than not gamble and regret it. It part of the game sometimes, it all about knowing when to take that shot in the dark and with what driver.
As for today's post, I am debuting a brand new article called the Fantasy Nascar Sleepers & Dark Horses! I hope to use this as my feature post next season on this site, so hopefully everyone likes this direction I am going. I use to use Sleepers & Busts for my articles, but the Busts were too complicated for my liking. You could make predictions on busts, but they are too difficult to pinpoint. So I steered away from them. Question now on everyone minds' probably is, ''what's the different between sleepers and dark horses?'' Well, sleepers are value based. As for Fantasy Nascar, it pretty simple actually! Commonly most sleepers are drivers whom has good potential based off typically track record, momentum or similar track success, but aren't getting the credit or attention they deserve for it. Meaning they are under the radar and therefore have a higher fantasy value.
How about Dark horses? They are commonly mistaken for sleepers, but make no mistake they are significantly different than sleepers. Sleepers are commonly drivers whom hasn't broken out yet, while Dark Horses are drivers who has proved themselves as threats. However, while they are threats it seems unlikely for them to pull off the win. Even though, they will have great potential to accomplish that feat. So to shorten it up, sleepers are to do with value and dark horses are potential winners. Got it? Great!
Let's get started!
Sleepers -
AJ Dinger - When we think of sleepers at Homestead, we never really think of a guy like AJ Dinger but he has ran well in the and has ran well at Homestead in his career. In 7 career starts at Homestead, he has finished inside the top 20 five (5) times. Last season, he finished 20th place after qualifying in the 20th position. It wasn't a great performance, but it still was pretty good overall. Otherwise, the driver of the #47 car has finished 36th in his other start in the #47 car at Homestead in 2015. So why do I like him so much? His finsihes in the chase stand out to me. As he has posted 5 straight Top 17 finishes in the past 5 races. During the chase overall, he has finished 7 of 9 races inside the top 20. If we go back to Pocono (15 races ago) in August, he has finished 12 of 15 inside the top 20. Pretty good, don't you think? How has he fair on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase? He has finished 17th or better in 3 of 4 during the chase. AJ Dinger has looked good this weekend so far with top 20 potential based off of practice. Another top 17 finish seems very likely!
Michael McDowell - McDowell doesn't have the greatest track record at Homestead or the most known driver as a legit fantasy pick, however he could be a great sleeper based on his recent results during the second half of the season though. Especially during the chase as he has been one of the best fantasy values in the series! If we take out his 33rd place finish last week, he has produced 5 straight finishes between 14th-23rd from Charlotte to Texas. In that span of races, he has finished 23rd or better on all three 1.5 mile tracks. You can expect another top 25 finish from Michael McDowell this weekend. He is looking to close out the season on a high-note and I think that is very possible for him to accomplish that!
Austin Dillon - You could make a good case that Dillon is more of a dark horse than a sleeper, but he really hasn't contended up front enough to warrant dark horse potential yet. Sure, he has contended for a couple top 5 finishes this season, but more often than he has hung in the teens for mainly. I personally think he is a year from truly busting out at the cup level, the potential is definitely there though. As for this weekend, Austin Dillon could be a very solid sleeper for fantasy players. He has shown good speed, much like the previous two race weekends. And his numbers on the 1.5 mile tracks has been pretty good as well. He didn't get the finish he deserved a couple weeks ago at Texas, but stood out throughout that event. He also had a pair of good runs at Kansas (6th) and Chicagoland (14th). Also in final practice, he showed some good long run speed which was encouraging to see out of him. I think he could finish inside the top 10, but with that said I also could see him wrecking as well. Over the past two seasons that has been the trend for him on the 1.5 mile tracks. Finish in or near the top 10 or wreck out. He been more consistent this season, but so far he is 50% of finishing well on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase. He's risky, but a good gamble to take though.
Dark Horses -
Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson will have a great shot at going to victory lane on Sunday afternoon! Everyone knows how he loves Homestead, in fact he loves it so much he wanted to race in all three races this weekend. He likes putting his car up at the top and that where he makes up so much ground on the top. No driver in the series does it better than him, with that said he also smack the wall more often too. This weekend, he has flat out been impressive! He has okay short run speed, but boy that car been something fierce on the long run! It was clear as day in practice that the 42 car has the car to beat on the long runs. His lap times were ridiculous compared to the competition. Question will it translate into the race? I don't know honestly. Part of me wants to believe he will be able to back it up in the race. However, the race fan in me knows something will go wrong with Larson. As always, Larson is a high-risk/high-reward pick. He has unlimited potential, but he needs to finish today race though. If he doesn't, I am willing to say it will because of the wall. That's my big concern with him, to tell you the truth.
Chase Elliott - It will be difficult to overlook the Driver of the No.24 car on Sunday afternoon. He has ran very well on the intermediate racetracks this season and definitely has been a standout during the chase as well. I cannot name one poor performance by the 24 team on the intermediate, as he had legit top 5 speed in all four 1.5 mile tracks. Two races ago, he was a top 5 driver at Texas. That's important because it has similar characterizes to Homestead. The fall-off is most obvious as we see a similar drop-off and same tire as well. To no surprise, Elliott has looked like one of the drivers to beat in practice on Saturday. Also, Elliott is great at managing his equipment which is key at a place like Homestead. He is able to go fast without abusing his tires, so he usually a good bet to have something for the leaders on the long runs. I like him a lot in the season's finale. He has one more chance to get to victory lane and I think he has good shot as anyone out there!
Thanks for reading,
Garry Briggs
Twitter - @Garryy12
