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Fantasy Nascar Update -
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick will start from the 3rd position on Sunday afternoon at Texas. He is in a hole and will need to win one of the next two races to advance. He will likely have the chance to win next week at Phoenix, but he has been pretty fast since unloading at Texas though. It should be noted that Harvick is using that same car he had at Chicagoland. For a refresher, he had to start in the back for that race. But had a rocket and charge well inside the top 10 before the first caution came out and lost a lap in the pits. He never recovered with lack of cautions. This weekend, he has looked great. On Saturday, he looked very good on the long runs and this isn't anything new either. He finished both practices outside of the top 25 in terms of fastest single lap. But don't be fooled, if you tracked his lap times than you know is way better than that. His lap times didn't fall off like other cars. It about fall-off at a place like Texas, he will have a big advantage on the long runs. Harvick always strong especially on the long runs on the 1.5 mile racetracks. That fact that he starts up front with a fast car should worry you a lot. His record at Texas also pretty good since joining SHR in the #4 car. Over the past 4 races, he has finished inside the top 10 in every race. Even better? Prior to finishing 10th back in April, he has finished 2nd or 3rd in the past 3 races at Texas. He's the odds-on favorite headed into Sunday's race in my eyes.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Joey Logano - Overall, Logano has been tough to predict this season. I haven't really been that high on him this season because of his lackluster ability to win races and more importnly to contend up front on a *consistent* basis. I put a lot of emphasizes on consistency in my overall rankings, big reason why Logano usually get bump in my rankings. However, lately he has shown more upside and has ran consistently well throughout the chase. I can definitely get behind him this weekend overall. Since unloading, Joey has been pretty happy about his car. Even on Friday, he was pretty solid overall. He sounded pretty excited about his chances this weekend and his results haven't disappointed. He qualified 2nd on Friday and looked just as good on Saturday in pair of practices. His track record at Texas also stands out as well. Over the past 7 races (since his debut in the #22 car at Texas), he has posted 5 Top 5 finishes. Including an win back in spring 2014 race. His numbers are better in the spring race, but he haven't had any luck in the fall races though. He has speed this weekend and should be expected to be a contender for at least boarder-line top 5 finish. And more than likely challenge for the win as well.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Brad Keselowski - Despite being eliminated from the Chase after Talladega, it haven't stopped Brad Keselowski from still having speed in his car and contending for top 5 finishes. Last week at Martinsville, he looked great and finished 2nd. This weekend is no different for the No.2 team. He has had speed all weekend and will start from the 4th position in Sunday's race. He topped the charts in final practice and looked every bit of being an top 5 driver overall. He seemed pretty pleased with his car overall, I would say. In the first practice, he was 3rd-ten lap average. He backed that up in final practice as well. He has consistently been near top of the board this weekend. The Penske cars are also showing a lot more speed in the chase than they previously showed leading up to the chase. Especially on the 1.5 mile tracks. Such as Charlotte not too long ago, the most similar racetrack to Texas that is in the chase. Headed into Sunday's race, I view Keselowski as a top 5 fantasy pick with clear upside to go to victory lane. Most people will likely steer away from him because he not in the chase anymore. But I really like him this weekend overall though.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch has had a lot of bad luck on Friday overall. He started off with crashing in the opening minutes of the first practice. He had to go to a backup car. Later in the day, during qualifying he wasn't able to finish qualifying in his backup car. Because he had a water leak that prevent to post a lap in the 2nd round of qualifying. However, that haven't hampered Busch's optimism for the weekend though. He felt very confident in his car on Saturday and looked pretty okay as well. In the first practice, he was low on the speed charts. But lap times fall off quickly here and he didn't get on the track immediately. So no worries, his car had some speed in that session and was able posted a very solid run in the closing minutes. He liked his car overall. In final practice, he was once again good. He posted the 3rd-best single fastest lap overall. I am not sure quite how good his long run speed is but I thought he looked pretty good on the shorter runs. I didn't pay quite as much attention to his long runs though. I am not concerned though, as I am sure he will be inside the top 5 before this thing is over, regardless of his starting position.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
5. Jimmie Johnson - I honestly haven't been impressed this weekend by Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 team. They struggled for the most part in both practice sessions on Saturday, maybe they are just sandbagging it though. They were considerable off in the first session, I didn't pay as much attention to them in the second session. But from what I have heard from other people, nothing much changed for Johnson in final practice. I think they are just trying some things this weekend though. I think they will be fine for the race, but I don't think he will be able to win or contend for the win. However, with that said I am going based off of practice alone The 48 team could be playing a trick on us and then goes out and win again. For me, it all about how much faith you have in Jimmie Johnson.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
Other Options - Kenseth (7th), Hamlin (10th), and Kurt Busch (12th)
B:
1. Martin Truex Jr - In final practice, I thought Martin Truex Jr had a very fast racecar overall and in my opinion the 2nd-best car on Saturday. Only driver that I thought was better was Kevin Harvick in the #4 car. Otherwise, I didn't see anyone who showed better speed than him. Remember, Truex led a lot of laps back in April and should have won. If it wasn't for some bad luck Him and Edwards swapped the lead back and forth for the first roughly 400 miles. Truex got the better on\f them too on the long runs though. Truex this weekend has once again looked pretty solid on the long runs this weekend. I think he will definitely be one of the favorites when the green flag waves on Sunday afternoon. Personally, I think some people will be sleeping on the No.78 car since he has been eliminated from the chase. Don't sleep on him though, this is one of his very best tracks and has almost won a couple dating back to the 2012 season. He's loves this place and there no surprise to me he's fast.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
2. Carl Edwards - Edwards should be a solid contender for Sunday's race. He was very good back in April, but he cost him a win after having to pit for a flat tire on a restart. Before that, he had a top 2 car alongside Martin Truex Jr. Since that strong start to the season, Edwards has cooled off considerably in second half of the season and last week's race at Martinsville haven't done him any favors. Edwards has struggled overall with only one top 5 finish over his past 15 races this season, with back to back finishes outside of the top 28. It tough to like his chances to go to victory lane, since he haven't done so since April. However, he does have a very fast car this weekend. He looked very strong in the first session on Saturday. He followed that up with another impressive session. I think he is the top 5 in terms of speed. Along with his JGR teammates and Harvick. Of the three remaining tracks, I like Edwards the most here. Even though, all of these tracks are great places for him. Headed into Sunday's race, I view him as a top 10 contend with upside to contend inside the top 5.
My Overall Ranking: 8th
3. Kyle Larson - Larson won Saturday's race and will now look to double down on his wins this weekend. I highly doubt it will happen though, he looked decent overall. His long run speed is suspect at best, like usual he will be good on the short runs but be flawed on the long runs. If we get some short runs at the end, he will be in good shape for a possible top 5 finish. However, I don't think it will translate into anything special. Other than maybe an top 10 finish. I say that exactly his potential for Sunday's race. Larson greatest attribute may be the high line though. If he doesn't hit the wall that what will give him the best chance to finish inside the top 5 or close to it. There's nobody in the field who can run the high-line like he can. However, there's probably nobody in the field who hits (or scrape) the wall as often as he does either. There might be a connection on that. Overall, I am not super high on Larson. I think he will challenge for a top 10 finish, but that's it likely. I say his best chance at victory lane will be at Homestead in a couple weeks.
My Overall Ranking: 11th
4. Austin Dillon - Dillon will start on the pole, but I don't think he will stay there for long though. He will be better than most people think though. He was very consistent in practice, his lap times overall were pretty good. People don't give this kid enough credit for being a pretty solid racer on the intermediate tracks. He's good, folks. How good will he be on Sunday? Hard to say, since I am definitely sure he will fall outside of the top 5 and top 10 after awhile. But his pit stall will be a huge help though. I say he will settle in from anywhere from 8th-14th place. That's the range, I am pinpointing him to be. He was a top 10 contender back in April, until he wrecked after a pit strategy went horribly wrong for him. Straight up he was running inside the top 10 for good portion of that race. Since then, it seems like the RCR cars has lost speed. However, they all has looked pretty quick this weekend. A top 15 is definitely on tap. Personally, I think he will finish closer to the top 10 and maybe steal a high-single digit finish as well.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
5. Ryan Newman - Newman has been overlooked often during the chase, since he missed the chase cut-off. But he has shown speed more than a few times. More times than not, he has been a driver with top 15 speed. Even with Dillon in the chase and getting the best equipment, Newman still has been able to produce good results. Overall, he has posted 4 straight Top 16 finishes in the chase. Including finishes of 12th and 4th at the last two 1.5 mile tracks. That's good, right? You bet. Bad news? His finishing position has decreased each time. From 4th at Charlotte to 16th place most recently at Martinsville Speedway. I don't like those kind of trends, with that said he has a pretty good car this weekend. Not a top 10 car, but definitely in his usual low-teen position. I have him finishing somewhere between 12th-17th place. Anything outside of that range will be surprising!
My Overall Ranking: 14th
Other good options - Kasey Kahne (16th), Paul Menard (18th), Jamie Mac (19th) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr (20th)
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott haven't been on many fantasy radars this week, but he should be. He has a lot of long run on Saturday and is one of the very best at saving his stuff. He has been like that all season long and should be considered one of the go to options this weekend. He has looked very good since unloading and has been one of the best drivers this season on these worn-out racetracks, too. In fact, he has been a stud on the 1.5 mile tracks in general. No suprise, he is once again showing some speed as raceday approaches. I love Chase Elliott as a fantasy option and have him ranked inside the top 10 headed into the race. That's say a lot, because I like giving young drivers a high ceiling. I think Elliott is a top 10 driver with major upside to finish inside the top 5. Hard to hate him overall, folks.
My Overall Ranking: 9th
2. Ryan Blaney - Blaney has looked better than I expected him to be at Texas, not saying I am shocked that he has this kind of speed. But he struggled on the worn-out 1.5 mile tracks this season. At least earlier in the season he did, but it seems like the 21 team have solved their issues and improved on their long run speed overall. That was one of his biggest issues at places like Atlanta, Richmond,Texas, Charlotte, etc at start of the year. He has shown he has improved in the chase and I really like that. This weekend he has looked good overall, I wouldn't call him a top 10 contender but still pretty close to it. Blaney will always have enough upside to find his way into the top 10. Will happen on Sunday? I don't know, but I think if he don't it will be only be a few positions though.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
3. Alex Bowman - I am not sure what to say about Bowman this weekend, I really haven't paid much attention to him overall. I would say he's a top 15 to maybe a top 20 driver. I would say he is closer to the top 15 range though. Bowman is another young driver and that worries me to be honest. Not because he is young, because inexperience drivers at the cup level seem to use up their stuff more often than not. At Texas, a big part of success is having a car that is good on the long runs. All-in-all, Bowman should be a pretty good teen-like fantasy option to use. But outside of Yahoo Fantasy Racing, I don't really see a lot of use for him though. Bowman lack of upside will drag his fantasy value down. I have him cross the line in about 13th-18th place range.
My Overall Ranking: 17th
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Update -
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick will start from the 3rd position on Sunday afternoon at Texas. He is in a hole and will need to win one of the next two races to advance. He will likely have the chance to win next week at Phoenix, but he has been pretty fast since unloading at Texas though. It should be noted that Harvick is using that same car he had at Chicagoland. For a refresher, he had to start in the back for that race. But had a rocket and charge well inside the top 10 before the first caution came out and lost a lap in the pits. He never recovered with lack of cautions. This weekend, he has looked great. On Saturday, he looked very good on the long runs and this isn't anything new either. He finished both practices outside of the top 25 in terms of fastest single lap. But don't be fooled, if you tracked his lap times than you know is way better than that. His lap times didn't fall off like other cars. It about fall-off at a place like Texas, he will have a big advantage on the long runs. Harvick always strong especially on the long runs on the 1.5 mile racetracks. That fact that he starts up front with a fast car should worry you a lot. His record at Texas also pretty good since joining SHR in the #4 car. Over the past 4 races, he has finished inside the top 10 in every race. Even better? Prior to finishing 10th back in April, he has finished 2nd or 3rd in the past 3 races at Texas. He's the odds-on favorite headed into Sunday's race in my eyes.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Joey Logano - Overall, Logano has been tough to predict this season. I haven't really been that high on him this season because of his lackluster ability to win races and more importnly to contend up front on a *consistent* basis. I put a lot of emphasizes on consistency in my overall rankings, big reason why Logano usually get bump in my rankings. However, lately he has shown more upside and has ran consistently well throughout the chase. I can definitely get behind him this weekend overall. Since unloading, Joey has been pretty happy about his car. Even on Friday, he was pretty solid overall. He sounded pretty excited about his chances this weekend and his results haven't disappointed. He qualified 2nd on Friday and looked just as good on Saturday in pair of practices. His track record at Texas also stands out as well. Over the past 7 races (since his debut in the #22 car at Texas), he has posted 5 Top 5 finishes. Including an win back in spring 2014 race. His numbers are better in the spring race, but he haven't had any luck in the fall races though. He has speed this weekend and should be expected to be a contender for at least boarder-line top 5 finish. And more than likely challenge for the win as well.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Brad Keselowski - Despite being eliminated from the Chase after Talladega, it haven't stopped Brad Keselowski from still having speed in his car and contending for top 5 finishes. Last week at Martinsville, he looked great and finished 2nd. This weekend is no different for the No.2 team. He has had speed all weekend and will start from the 4th position in Sunday's race. He topped the charts in final practice and looked every bit of being an top 5 driver overall. He seemed pretty pleased with his car overall, I would say. In the first practice, he was 3rd-ten lap average. He backed that up in final practice as well. He has consistently been near top of the board this weekend. The Penske cars are also showing a lot more speed in the chase than they previously showed leading up to the chase. Especially on the 1.5 mile tracks. Such as Charlotte not too long ago, the most similar racetrack to Texas that is in the chase. Headed into Sunday's race, I view Keselowski as a top 5 fantasy pick with clear upside to go to victory lane. Most people will likely steer away from him because he not in the chase anymore. But I really like him this weekend overall though.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch has had a lot of bad luck on Friday overall. He started off with crashing in the opening minutes of the first practice. He had to go to a backup car. Later in the day, during qualifying he wasn't able to finish qualifying in his backup car. Because he had a water leak that prevent to post a lap in the 2nd round of qualifying. However, that haven't hampered Busch's optimism for the weekend though. He felt very confident in his car on Saturday and looked pretty okay as well. In the first practice, he was low on the speed charts. But lap times fall off quickly here and he didn't get on the track immediately. So no worries, his car had some speed in that session and was able posted a very solid run in the closing minutes. He liked his car overall. In final practice, he was once again good. He posted the 3rd-best single fastest lap overall. I am not sure quite how good his long run speed is but I thought he looked pretty good on the shorter runs. I didn't pay quite as much attention to his long runs though. I am not concerned though, as I am sure he will be inside the top 5 before this thing is over, regardless of his starting position.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
5. Jimmie Johnson - I honestly haven't been impressed this weekend by Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 team. They struggled for the most part in both practice sessions on Saturday, maybe they are just sandbagging it though. They were considerable off in the first session, I didn't pay as much attention to them in the second session. But from what I have heard from other people, nothing much changed for Johnson in final practice. I think they are just trying some things this weekend though. I think they will be fine for the race, but I don't think he will be able to win or contend for the win. However, with that said I am going based off of practice alone The 48 team could be playing a trick on us and then goes out and win again. For me, it all about how much faith you have in Jimmie Johnson.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
Other Options - Kenseth (7th), Hamlin (10th), and Kurt Busch (12th)
B:
1. Martin Truex Jr - In final practice, I thought Martin Truex Jr had a very fast racecar overall and in my opinion the 2nd-best car on Saturday. Only driver that I thought was better was Kevin Harvick in the #4 car. Otherwise, I didn't see anyone who showed better speed than him. Remember, Truex led a lot of laps back in April and should have won. If it wasn't for some bad luck Him and Edwards swapped the lead back and forth for the first roughly 400 miles. Truex got the better on\f them too on the long runs though. Truex this weekend has once again looked pretty solid on the long runs this weekend. I think he will definitely be one of the favorites when the green flag waves on Sunday afternoon. Personally, I think some people will be sleeping on the No.78 car since he has been eliminated from the chase. Don't sleep on him though, this is one of his very best tracks and has almost won a couple dating back to the 2012 season. He's loves this place and there no surprise to me he's fast.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
2. Carl Edwards - Edwards should be a solid contender for Sunday's race. He was very good back in April, but he cost him a win after having to pit for a flat tire on a restart. Before that, he had a top 2 car alongside Martin Truex Jr. Since that strong start to the season, Edwards has cooled off considerably in second half of the season and last week's race at Martinsville haven't done him any favors. Edwards has struggled overall with only one top 5 finish over his past 15 races this season, with back to back finishes outside of the top 28. It tough to like his chances to go to victory lane, since he haven't done so since April. However, he does have a very fast car this weekend. He looked very strong in the first session on Saturday. He followed that up with another impressive session. I think he is the top 5 in terms of speed. Along with his JGR teammates and Harvick. Of the three remaining tracks, I like Edwards the most here. Even though, all of these tracks are great places for him. Headed into Sunday's race, I view him as a top 10 contend with upside to contend inside the top 5.
My Overall Ranking: 8th
3. Kyle Larson - Larson won Saturday's race and will now look to double down on his wins this weekend. I highly doubt it will happen though, he looked decent overall. His long run speed is suspect at best, like usual he will be good on the short runs but be flawed on the long runs. If we get some short runs at the end, he will be in good shape for a possible top 5 finish. However, I don't think it will translate into anything special. Other than maybe an top 10 finish. I say that exactly his potential for Sunday's race. Larson greatest attribute may be the high line though. If he doesn't hit the wall that what will give him the best chance to finish inside the top 5 or close to it. There's nobody in the field who can run the high-line like he can. However, there's probably nobody in the field who hits (or scrape) the wall as often as he does either. There might be a connection on that. Overall, I am not super high on Larson. I think he will challenge for a top 10 finish, but that's it likely. I say his best chance at victory lane will be at Homestead in a couple weeks.
My Overall Ranking: 11th
4. Austin Dillon - Dillon will start on the pole, but I don't think he will stay there for long though. He will be better than most people think though. He was very consistent in practice, his lap times overall were pretty good. People don't give this kid enough credit for being a pretty solid racer on the intermediate tracks. He's good, folks. How good will he be on Sunday? Hard to say, since I am definitely sure he will fall outside of the top 5 and top 10 after awhile. But his pit stall will be a huge help though. I say he will settle in from anywhere from 8th-14th place. That's the range, I am pinpointing him to be. He was a top 10 contender back in April, until he wrecked after a pit strategy went horribly wrong for him. Straight up he was running inside the top 10 for good portion of that race. Since then, it seems like the RCR cars has lost speed. However, they all has looked pretty quick this weekend. A top 15 is definitely on tap. Personally, I think he will finish closer to the top 10 and maybe steal a high-single digit finish as well.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
5. Ryan Newman - Newman has been overlooked often during the chase, since he missed the chase cut-off. But he has shown speed more than a few times. More times than not, he has been a driver with top 15 speed. Even with Dillon in the chase and getting the best equipment, Newman still has been able to produce good results. Overall, he has posted 4 straight Top 16 finishes in the chase. Including finishes of 12th and 4th at the last two 1.5 mile tracks. That's good, right? You bet. Bad news? His finishing position has decreased each time. From 4th at Charlotte to 16th place most recently at Martinsville Speedway. I don't like those kind of trends, with that said he has a pretty good car this weekend. Not a top 10 car, but definitely in his usual low-teen position. I have him finishing somewhere between 12th-17th place. Anything outside of that range will be surprising!
My Overall Ranking: 14th
Other good options - Kasey Kahne (16th), Paul Menard (18th), Jamie Mac (19th) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr (20th)
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott haven't been on many fantasy radars this week, but he should be. He has a lot of long run on Saturday and is one of the very best at saving his stuff. He has been like that all season long and should be considered one of the go to options this weekend. He has looked very good since unloading and has been one of the best drivers this season on these worn-out racetracks, too. In fact, he has been a stud on the 1.5 mile tracks in general. No suprise, he is once again showing some speed as raceday approaches. I love Chase Elliott as a fantasy option and have him ranked inside the top 10 headed into the race. That's say a lot, because I like giving young drivers a high ceiling. I think Elliott is a top 10 driver with major upside to finish inside the top 5. Hard to hate him overall, folks.
My Overall Ranking: 9th
2. Ryan Blaney - Blaney has looked better than I expected him to be at Texas, not saying I am shocked that he has this kind of speed. But he struggled on the worn-out 1.5 mile tracks this season. At least earlier in the season he did, but it seems like the 21 team have solved their issues and improved on their long run speed overall. That was one of his biggest issues at places like Atlanta, Richmond,Texas, Charlotte, etc at start of the year. He has shown he has improved in the chase and I really like that. This weekend he has looked good overall, I wouldn't call him a top 10 contender but still pretty close to it. Blaney will always have enough upside to find his way into the top 10. Will happen on Sunday? I don't know, but I think if he don't it will be only be a few positions though.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
3. Alex Bowman - I am not sure what to say about Bowman this weekend, I really haven't paid much attention to him overall. I would say he's a top 15 to maybe a top 20 driver. I would say he is closer to the top 15 range though. Bowman is another young driver and that worries me to be honest. Not because he is young, because inexperience drivers at the cup level seem to use up their stuff more often than not. At Texas, a big part of success is having a car that is good on the long runs. All-in-all, Bowman should be a pretty good teen-like fantasy option to use. But outside of Yahoo Fantasy Racing, I don't really see a lot of use for him though. Bowman lack of upside will drag his fantasy value down. I have him cross the line in about 13th-18th place range.
My Overall Ranking: 17th
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
