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Chase Elliott enter his 3rd season as a driver and it is a very important one, in my opinion. He has been hyped as one of the top young drivers in the sport and it is time for him to breakout a win soon. He has been very impressive in his first two seasons. And he has been close to wins on number of occasions, but just cannot quite close the deal. Since his debut, there has been multiple first time winners. Including Ryan Blaney, Austin Dillon, Christ Buescher, Ricky Stenhouse (two wins) and Kyle Larson (4 wins). So there has been 5 first-time winners since Elliott has debut in the Cup series. That has to be eating away at Chase Elliott. Question is will that add pressure to his shoulder and motivate him?
You can expect him to be at his best on the intermediate tracks. It is hard to pick just a couple good ones for Elliott. He has found success in some form across the board, in my opinion. But If I had to pick just three tracks, then I would go with Michigan (2-mile intermediate track), Dover (1-mile intermediate track) and Chicago (1.5 mile intermediate track) as his top 3 intermediate tracks. Texas and Atlanta are also great tracks for him. Dover may be his best track in terms of pure results. At least among the tracks with at least 4 starts on. In 4 career starts, Chase Elliott has finished 5th or better in every start at Dover. In his rookie's season, he had a pair of 3rd place finish. Then he followed it up with finishes of 5th and 2nd. In last October's race, he was awesome. I thought he had the race won at one point. He led 138 laps on his way to an 2nd place finish to race winner Kyle Busch.
I would say that Michigan is the most logical place for him to score his first win. As he has more 2nd place finishes here then anywhere else. In his first three starts, he finished 2nd place. In June 2016, he could had won the race. But a bad late restart cost him a win to race winner Joey Logano. In August 2016, he had the race won. He beat Kyle Larson off pit road during late round of pit stops. Then got through traffic a lot better than the 42. Then there was a caution and Larson got away from him on a late restart. He finished 2nd once again. The follow race at Michigan, he wasn't nearly as good but he was in contention again. He just couldn't catch Kyle Larson on the final restart though. In August 2017, he had a shot to win again. He was the 2nd or 3rd driver on fresh tires on a late restart, but couldn't take advantage of it. He finished 8th in that event. If Elliott and his team can put it altogether, then he can easily go to victory lane at Michigan. I think this is where he will find one of his wins at!
Between Chicago, Texas and Atlanta it is hard to pick which one is top racetrack, but I would say it is Chicago though. His numbers at Chicago are very impressive in his limited starts. In two career starts, he has 11.0 average start but impressive 2.5 average with 40+ laps in each race. He has not only been running well at Chicago, but he has been a legit racer winner contender. He has finished in the top 10 in every race at Chicago, Texas and Atlanta so far his cup career. I think that just speaks how impressive that Chase Elliott has been so far in his first two seasons at this level!
The flats tracks will be just a okay spot for Chase Elliott, as his first two seasons he has been valuable to inconsistency in his results. The shorter flats has been up and down for Elliott overall. I think Phoenix is his best track of the three by far. In 4 career starts, he haven't finished worse than 12th. That 12th place finish was his best race of his young career here. He had one of the best cars in the event. He led a race-high 106 laps, before fading in latter part of the race. In November 2017, he finished 2nd place and led 34 laps on his way to that runner-up finish. In 2016, he had a pair of top 10 finishes.
New Hampshire is a good track for him, but not great track. In his first career start, he had an incident with teammate Alex Bowman that derailed his solid top 10 day. He finished 34th and multiple laps down. In his three starts since then, he has compiled three straight finishes between 11th-13th. So in four career starts at New Hampshire, he does not have a single top 10 finish. Very close to be breaking into the top 10 though. And then there's Richmond! In 5 career starts, he has only one finish in the top 10 and that was last September. He finished 10th in last September's race. Prior to that, he had finishes of 16th, 12th, 19th and 24th. Richmond has been a disappointment overall, as I high hopes for him at this place. As he found a good amount of success in the lower series. So logically this was a place I circled for him, but so far the results haven't been there.
Elliott made his debut at Pocono in June 2016 at the cup level and really impressed a lot of people. As he led a race-high 51 laps on his way to 4th place finish. He followed that up with 33rd place finish in the August's race. That was a very strange race with the fog and Chris Buescher scoring his first career victory. However, Elliott had a good top 10 run going for that event. Until he wrecked with Joey Logano in middle of the event. Elliott finished 4 laps down. In 2017, he was just top 10 good in both races. He had finishes of 8th and 10th. That pretty much where he deserved to finish, too. At Indy, he has made three career starts. And all three races has been below average I would say. He has a career-high of 15th place finish in 2016. He wasn't nothing special for that race, either. He was probably at best a middle-pack driver. His 73.8 driver rating definitely backs that up. He was running in the top 10, before his engine went south in 2017. It started to go downhill after maybe 20 laps. And finally let go around lap 40 or so. He has some work to do on these flat tracks!
Martinsville and Bristol are the next two tracks that I would like to look at. Both are really good tracks for him and Martinsville may just be one of his best tracks. He was impressive at this place in 2017. He finished 3rd in the spring, after leading 20 laps. Then he followed it up with 23rd place finish. But he was awesome in that race. He led 123 laps and was leading with just a few laps to go. Then him and Denny Hamlin had an incident. This spark major drama between then and going forward in the Nascar playoffs. Between fans and drivers alike. If he can repeat those performances in 2018, then he will be in victory lane most likely at Martinsville. At Bristol, he has been very good. He has gotten better finishes in the spring races than the summer races. He has finishes of 4th and 7th in the last two spring races. In the summer races? 15th and 18th. Good news? He led laps in both summer races, if that means anything to you.
Road courses will be another area where I say that Elliott need to make some improvement on in 2018! He isn't bad, but he isn't great though. At Watkins Glen, he has made two starts and finished 13th in both races. In 2017, he was better than being 13th place driver. I say he was top 10 good for the event and he even led 9 laps towards the end. But I think that had something to do with how pit strategy went, too. At Sonoma, he has made two starts with career-high of 8th place. That came in last season's race but I don't recall him being that good for the event. He was more of a low to middle teen-type driver overall. Young drivers usually struggle more at Sonoma. You can expect more of the same in 2018 from Elliott. I don't think he will cotend for wins at either road courses in 2018, but it will be nice if he can make more gains though.
Plate tracks has been a strong suit for Elliott, but he haven't had much luck on his side. In the opening race of the 2017 season, he almost won the Daytona 500. If he had a little more fuel, I think he would had won the Daytona 500. He was that strong at the end, I don't think anyone would had overpowered him. He finished 14th in that race. In his three other career starts, he has finishes of 22nd, 39th and 32nd. He's led laps in 2 of those 3 races though. Things just haven't worked out well for him at Daytona. How has he done at Talladega? Pretty good, I would say overall. In 4 career starts, he has posted 3 finishes of 16th or better. In 2016, he posted finishes of 12th and 5th. He led laps in both races. In 2017, things didn't go quite as well. He had a pair of DNFs with finishes of 16th and 30th.
Chase Elliott should have a great 2018 season overall. He will be at his best by far on the intermediate tracks. The flat tracks will be inconsistent spots for Elliott, but he will have his fair share of opportunities, too. Phoenix would be his top flat track, while the likes of Richmond and Indy would be his worst tracks. When it comes to the short tracks of Martinsville and Bristol, you can expect him to very strong. I think he can challenge for win at both tracks. More so at Martinsville than Bristol though. As for the plate tracks and road courses you can expect him to have mix results. The plate tracks he seems to run better than he finishes. Not exactly promising as a fantasy player, but he has great potential. The road courses are getting better for Elliott as he enter year number 3. However, I am not buying that he is ready to be considered as a legit option.
I am not very interested if Elliott can get to victory lane in 2018. There's several tracks that I think it can happen on and most of them are intermediate tracks. This is the most common type of track in Nascar right now and he's very good at most of them. If I had to hand pick a track for him to go to victory lane at, I would pick either Dover or Michigan.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Chase Elliott enter his 3rd season as a driver and it is a very important one, in my opinion. He has been hyped as one of the top young drivers in the sport and it is time for him to breakout a win soon. He has been very impressive in his first two seasons. And he has been close to wins on number of occasions, but just cannot quite close the deal. Since his debut, there has been multiple first time winners. Including Ryan Blaney, Austin Dillon, Christ Buescher, Ricky Stenhouse (two wins) and Kyle Larson (4 wins). So there has been 5 first-time winners since Elliott has debut in the Cup series. That has to be eating away at Chase Elliott. Question is will that add pressure to his shoulder and motivate him?
You can expect him to be at his best on the intermediate tracks. It is hard to pick just a couple good ones for Elliott. He has found success in some form across the board, in my opinion. But If I had to pick just three tracks, then I would go with Michigan (2-mile intermediate track), Dover (1-mile intermediate track) and Chicago (1.5 mile intermediate track) as his top 3 intermediate tracks. Texas and Atlanta are also great tracks for him. Dover may be his best track in terms of pure results. At least among the tracks with at least 4 starts on. In 4 career starts, Chase Elliott has finished 5th or better in every start at Dover. In his rookie's season, he had a pair of 3rd place finish. Then he followed it up with finishes of 5th and 2nd. In last October's race, he was awesome. I thought he had the race won at one point. He led 138 laps on his way to an 2nd place finish to race winner Kyle Busch.
I would say that Michigan is the most logical place for him to score his first win. As he has more 2nd place finishes here then anywhere else. In his first three starts, he finished 2nd place. In June 2016, he could had won the race. But a bad late restart cost him a win to race winner Joey Logano. In August 2016, he had the race won. He beat Kyle Larson off pit road during late round of pit stops. Then got through traffic a lot better than the 42. Then there was a caution and Larson got away from him on a late restart. He finished 2nd once again. The follow race at Michigan, he wasn't nearly as good but he was in contention again. He just couldn't catch Kyle Larson on the final restart though. In August 2017, he had a shot to win again. He was the 2nd or 3rd driver on fresh tires on a late restart, but couldn't take advantage of it. He finished 8th in that event. If Elliott and his team can put it altogether, then he can easily go to victory lane at Michigan. I think this is where he will find one of his wins at!
Between Chicago, Texas and Atlanta it is hard to pick which one is top racetrack, but I would say it is Chicago though. His numbers at Chicago are very impressive in his limited starts. In two career starts, he has 11.0 average start but impressive 2.5 average with 40+ laps in each race. He has not only been running well at Chicago, but he has been a legit racer winner contender. He has finished in the top 10 in every race at Chicago, Texas and Atlanta so far his cup career. I think that just speaks how impressive that Chase Elliott has been so far in his first two seasons at this level!
The flats tracks will be just a okay spot for Chase Elliott, as his first two seasons he has been valuable to inconsistency in his results. The shorter flats has been up and down for Elliott overall. I think Phoenix is his best track of the three by far. In 4 career starts, he haven't finished worse than 12th. That 12th place finish was his best race of his young career here. He had one of the best cars in the event. He led a race-high 106 laps, before fading in latter part of the race. In November 2017, he finished 2nd place and led 34 laps on his way to that runner-up finish. In 2016, he had a pair of top 10 finishes.
New Hampshire is a good track for him, but not great track. In his first career start, he had an incident with teammate Alex Bowman that derailed his solid top 10 day. He finished 34th and multiple laps down. In his three starts since then, he has compiled three straight finishes between 11th-13th. So in four career starts at New Hampshire, he does not have a single top 10 finish. Very close to be breaking into the top 10 though. And then there's Richmond! In 5 career starts, he has only one finish in the top 10 and that was last September. He finished 10th in last September's race. Prior to that, he had finishes of 16th, 12th, 19th and 24th. Richmond has been a disappointment overall, as I high hopes for him at this place. As he found a good amount of success in the lower series. So logically this was a place I circled for him, but so far the results haven't been there.
Elliott made his debut at Pocono in June 2016 at the cup level and really impressed a lot of people. As he led a race-high 51 laps on his way to 4th place finish. He followed that up with 33rd place finish in the August's race. That was a very strange race with the fog and Chris Buescher scoring his first career victory. However, Elliott had a good top 10 run going for that event. Until he wrecked with Joey Logano in middle of the event. Elliott finished 4 laps down. In 2017, he was just top 10 good in both races. He had finishes of 8th and 10th. That pretty much where he deserved to finish, too. At Indy, he has made three career starts. And all three races has been below average I would say. He has a career-high of 15th place finish in 2016. He wasn't nothing special for that race, either. He was probably at best a middle-pack driver. His 73.8 driver rating definitely backs that up. He was running in the top 10, before his engine went south in 2017. It started to go downhill after maybe 20 laps. And finally let go around lap 40 or so. He has some work to do on these flat tracks!
Martinsville and Bristol are the next two tracks that I would like to look at. Both are really good tracks for him and Martinsville may just be one of his best tracks. He was impressive at this place in 2017. He finished 3rd in the spring, after leading 20 laps. Then he followed it up with 23rd place finish. But he was awesome in that race. He led 123 laps and was leading with just a few laps to go. Then him and Denny Hamlin had an incident. This spark major drama between then and going forward in the Nascar playoffs. Between fans and drivers alike. If he can repeat those performances in 2018, then he will be in victory lane most likely at Martinsville. At Bristol, he has been very good. He has gotten better finishes in the spring races than the summer races. He has finishes of 4th and 7th in the last two spring races. In the summer races? 15th and 18th. Good news? He led laps in both summer races, if that means anything to you.
Road courses will be another area where I say that Elliott need to make some improvement on in 2018! He isn't bad, but he isn't great though. At Watkins Glen, he has made two starts and finished 13th in both races. In 2017, he was better than being 13th place driver. I say he was top 10 good for the event and he even led 9 laps towards the end. But I think that had something to do with how pit strategy went, too. At Sonoma, he has made two starts with career-high of 8th place. That came in last season's race but I don't recall him being that good for the event. He was more of a low to middle teen-type driver overall. Young drivers usually struggle more at Sonoma. You can expect more of the same in 2018 from Elliott. I don't think he will cotend for wins at either road courses in 2018, but it will be nice if he can make more gains though.
Plate tracks has been a strong suit for Elliott, but he haven't had much luck on his side. In the opening race of the 2017 season, he almost won the Daytona 500. If he had a little more fuel, I think he would had won the Daytona 500. He was that strong at the end, I don't think anyone would had overpowered him. He finished 14th in that race. In his three other career starts, he has finishes of 22nd, 39th and 32nd. He's led laps in 2 of those 3 races though. Things just haven't worked out well for him at Daytona. How has he done at Talladega? Pretty good, I would say overall. In 4 career starts, he has posted 3 finishes of 16th or better. In 2016, he posted finishes of 12th and 5th. He led laps in both races. In 2017, things didn't go quite as well. He had a pair of DNFs with finishes of 16th and 30th.
Chase Elliott should have a great 2018 season overall. He will be at his best by far on the intermediate tracks. The flat tracks will be inconsistent spots for Elliott, but he will have his fair share of opportunities, too. Phoenix would be his top flat track, while the likes of Richmond and Indy would be his worst tracks. When it comes to the short tracks of Martinsville and Bristol, you can expect him to very strong. I think he can challenge for win at both tracks. More so at Martinsville than Bristol though. As for the plate tracks and road courses you can expect him to have mix results. The plate tracks he seems to run better than he finishes. Not exactly promising as a fantasy player, but he has great potential. The road courses are getting better for Elliott as he enter year number 3. However, I am not buying that he is ready to be considered as a legit option.
I am not very interested if Elliott can get to victory lane in 2018. There's several tracks that I think it can happen on and most of them are intermediate tracks. This is the most common type of track in Nascar right now and he's very good at most of them. If I had to hand pick a track for him to go to victory lane at, I would pick either Dover or Michigan.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
