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Denny Hamlin had pretty much the year that I expected him to have. He started out slow (like in each of the previous couple seasons), but he started to roll as we enter the month of July. That when things really started to click (a lot like in 2016) and he really started to knock off the top 5 finishes. In second half of the season, there wasn't many better drivers. The question is will that trend continue into 2018? I would like to say that he will be strong out of the gate, but I cannot. This is a pattern for Hamlin, where he doesn't get rolling into middle of the season. I am not sure why, but it just is. Until, he can prove this theory to be false, I think we have to keep going under this assumption!
Obviously, the intermediate tracks will be a major strength for Denny Hamlin and the 11 team in 2018! His best intermediate tracks? Chicago, Darlington and Homestead. These tracks will always stand out on his resume and he should be very strong at all three places once again in 2018. We only visit them each once per year, but Denny usually make them count! His best track? It's Darlington and it is not very close. From a career point of view, his numbers are stupid good off the charts. In 12 career starts, he holds impressive 5.83 average finish! In his first 5 starts, he posted 4 top 10 finishes in 5 races with a pair of top 2 finishes. Since then? He have only gotten better! In his last 7 starts at this place, he has compiled 6 Top 7 finishes in 7 starts. In 5 of his last 6 starts, Hamlin has finished in the top 4. In just his last three starts, he has finishes of 1st, 4th and 3rd.
Homestead is another very good track for him! In his last 12 starts, he has only finished once outside of the top 14. In his last 5 starts at this track, he has compiled 5 straight finishes in the top 10. Including finishes of 9th, 9th, 10th, 7th and 1st. In those last 12 starts, he has posted 9 Top 10 finishes during that span. On top of that, he has posted 2 wins during that 12-race span. His first win was back in 2009 and the last win came in 2013. He led 71 laps and 72 laps. Chicago is another very good track for him, especially lately. He started off his career pretty rocky at Chicago. As he finished 16th or worse in 5 of his first 8 races at Chicago. In his last 4 races at this place? His finishes consists of 4th, 6th, 1st and 6th. In his last 9 races, he has posted 6 Top 8 finishes. He had finishes of 8th and 5th in 2009 and 2010.
Shorter flats has always been a very strong type of track for Denny Hamlin and there's no reason to believe that will change now. Aside from Martinsville and Darlington, I would have to say that Richmond is one of Denny's top tracks. He has amazing record here and been the best driver in the series over the past couple seasons. In his last 5 starts at this track, he has compiled 5 straight finishes of 6th or better. Prior to that (from September 2012 to April 2015), he had no finishes better than 18th. That was just a rough path for Hamlin as it is clear that he is back on track now. Majority of those races were during tough times for Hamlin. Back in spring 2013 (he injured his back) and wasn't himself in 2013 or 2014. It wasn't until latter part of 2015 that Hamlin actually started to run again like the Old Denny Hamlin. So I get why, he had some struggles at certain places during those seasons. Prior to that, he posted 4 Top 5 finishes in 6-race span from September 2009 - April 2012.
Phoenix is another great track for Denny Hamlin and has a great record here. In his most recent race here, he led 193 laps before he faded in the event. Then as he faded to 4th place with a woeful racecar, he got into it with Chase Elliott. And that basically just hurried along the process for Hamlin's day that went from great to bad to worse. Even if that Elliott's situation didn't occur, I still think he would had missed the championship cutoff. Hell, I think he still end up in the wall, even if Elliott wasn't aggressive with him. Prior to that, he has had very good results. In his last 6 races (prior to last fall's race), he had compiled 5 finishes in the top 10. In 4 of those 5 races, he finished 7th or better. In 7 of the last 12 races overall, he has finished 8th or better. I also would like to point out that two of those five ''bad'' results were in November 2013 and March 2014. I usually just disregard finishes during that time period of his career. After those two finishes, he has gotten back on track for the most part.
Then there is New Hampshire. I would say it is a good track for him, but he does have a history of being inconsistent at times. In his last 6 races, he has finished 15th or better in all six races. In his last 9 races, he has finished 15th or better in 8 of those races. During that 9-race span, he has only 4 top 10 finishes and 2 top 5 finishes. He won back in 2016 at this track. In his first 11 starts at this track, he posted 6 top 6 finishes. In his last 12 races here, he has just 4 such finishes. Even though, he all 4 finishes ended in 2nd or better. In 24 career starts, he has a career average finish of 10.1 with 3 wins and 14 Top 10 finishes.
Hamlin isn't quite as good on the larger flats, but he is better than I think most people realize though. At Indy, he has been a stud of late. In his last 6 races here, he has compiled 4 finishes in the top 6. He finished 17th in last season's race and finished 17th. If you need a refresher on the 2017 Brickyard's race, it wasn't basically Daytona on steroids. 14 cautions with pretty much every car in the field aside from the top 3 or 4 drivers being involved in wrecks. Hamlin wrecked with Menard on the final caution, but Hamlin had issues on that final restart. He had a flat tire and was really just a disaster waiting to happen. Prior to finishing 17th at Indy in 2017, he had 3 straight top 5 finishes from 2014 to 2016. Then there's Pocono, he has always been very good here. In 24 career starts, he has managed 4 career wins. In his first 10 career starts, he posted 4 wins and 7 Top 5 finishes. He was the master here to start his career and now the playing field is a lot more even. But he still getting a lot of good results though. In his last 8 races, he has compiled 6 finishes of 12th or better. Including 5 of those 8 races ending in the top 10. Currently, he has finished 14th or better in 4 straight races at Pocono. His lone bad finish since start June 2014 is 22nd place in August 2015.
Martinsville and Bristol are the next two tracks that we are gonna look at! He is obviously very good at Martinsville, I would say that is known for being one of the best drivers in the series here. He is a 5-timer winner at this track and his history is impressive overall. In 5 of his last 7 races at Martinsville, he has finished 8th or better. In 11 of his last 16 races overall, he has finished 8th or better. During that 16-race span, he has compiled 4 wins. His last win coming back in March 2015. He has a lot more luck in the fall races though. Since 2013 season, he has finished 8th or better in every race here. His last three fall's race finishes consists of 7th, 3rd and 3rd. You don't need all of these numbers to know that Hamlin is a stud at Martinsville. You knew this already!
Bristol is a good track for him, but like any driver out there, he have some inconsistent numbers. He is very good at this place though. In his last 5 races at this track, he ha compiled 4 finishes in the top 10. Overall 3 of those 5 races has ended in 3rd. What does all three races have in common? They all happened during the August's race. His last three August's race: 3rd, 3rd and 3rd. His last August's race? 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 40th, 28th, 1st and 7th. So 5 of his last 7 August races has ended in the top 7. In his last 13 races overall at Bristol, he has only posted 7 Top 10 finishes. So 5 of 7 has came in the August's race. Pretty easy to figure out where his better finish could come between the two dates.
Road courses for number of seasons where considered a major weakness for Denny Hamlin. From 2010 to 2015 (at both road courses), he posted JUST 2 Top 20 finishes during those 12 races. In the past two seasons? He has 4 finishes in the top 4. In each of the last two seasons, he has finished in the top 4 every single time. He won at Watkins Glen in 2016, after leading 10 laps. He finished 4th in 2017. At Sonoma, he finished 2nd at Sonoma in 2016. He could have won that race, if he didn't overdrive a turn on the final lap. I also feel like he didn't want to be a dickhead to Tony Stewart in his final season. He could have easily take the #14 car out and the win all in one. But he didn't. In 2017, he finished 4th. He has led 44 laps in the last two seasons at Sonoma. That is the most in the series. Among drivers with at least 20 laps led at Sonoma, there are only 3 other active drivers. Stewart and Edwards are currently out of the sport. Only Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr and AJ Dinger has led over 20 laps at Sonoma in past two seasons.
Plate tracks are great for Hamlin, but I think a lot of people will forget that after a down year on the plate tracks in 2017. He finished 17th and 24th at Daytona in 2017. In his last three races at Daytona, he does NOT have a finish better than 17th. In his 5 previous races (from February 2014 to February 2016), he compiled 5 straight finishes of 6th or better. During that span, he posted 3 straight top 4 finishes. He has been a bit more stable at Talladega lately. In 5 of his last 8 races at Talladega, he has finished 11th or better. Including 3 straight top 11 finishes at Talladega. I personally would trust him a little more in the spring races though. In his last 4 spring races at Talladega, he has compiled finishes of 11th, 31st, 9th and 1st. In the fall races? 3rd,6th, 37th and 18th. So the roles have basically reversed lately. He use to be better in the spring races in 2014 and 2015. But in 2016 and 2016, he has been better in the fall race. Only Denny Hamlin could pull that off!
Alright folks, I think it is time to wrap this thing up! Hamlin will probably win a couple races in 2018 and fair share of his success will most likely come in the summer and fall months. For whatever reason, he has struggled to perform well and to get finish early in the season. I don't know why and I personally don't care. Long as this trend continue, it makes my job a lot easier. Of course, if he comes running out of the gate, then I have a entire fuckery on my hands. Us fantasy nascar folks like things to stay consistent. Knowing Denny, he will throw a curve ball to us and win a couple races before the All-star race. Who know, but we do know where he will be his strong at though. The shorter flats and intermediate tracks. This has been where Joe Gibbs Racing seems to have the biggest edge on everyone else. I am not ready to trust Hamlin on the road courses yet, but he is making it really hard not to. Especially after the numbers he has posted in the last two seasons. The plate tracks he has thrown us for a loop for years. He was terrible for years until 2014 and then looked unstoppable. For our sake, I hope he get back to be a consistent top 5 threat at both Daytona and Talladega.
I don't really have a lot more to say about Hamlin. He will get his wins and bunch of top 10 finishes. Hamlin is really starting to come back into his own as a driver after a couple rough seasons in 2013 and 2014. I think this could be his season, where he goes out and finally put it all together. What do you think? I think anything possible, if you put enough time and effort into it!
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Denny Hamlin had pretty much the year that I expected him to have. He started out slow (like in each of the previous couple seasons), but he started to roll as we enter the month of July. That when things really started to click (a lot like in 2016) and he really started to knock off the top 5 finishes. In second half of the season, there wasn't many better drivers. The question is will that trend continue into 2018? I would like to say that he will be strong out of the gate, but I cannot. This is a pattern for Hamlin, where he doesn't get rolling into middle of the season. I am not sure why, but it just is. Until, he can prove this theory to be false, I think we have to keep going under this assumption!
Obviously, the intermediate tracks will be a major strength for Denny Hamlin and the 11 team in 2018! His best intermediate tracks? Chicago, Darlington and Homestead. These tracks will always stand out on his resume and he should be very strong at all three places once again in 2018. We only visit them each once per year, but Denny usually make them count! His best track? It's Darlington and it is not very close. From a career point of view, his numbers are stupid good off the charts. In 12 career starts, he holds impressive 5.83 average finish! In his first 5 starts, he posted 4 top 10 finishes in 5 races with a pair of top 2 finishes. Since then? He have only gotten better! In his last 7 starts at this place, he has compiled 6 Top 7 finishes in 7 starts. In 5 of his last 6 starts, Hamlin has finished in the top 4. In just his last three starts, he has finishes of 1st, 4th and 3rd.
Homestead is another very good track for him! In his last 12 starts, he has only finished once outside of the top 14. In his last 5 starts at this track, he has compiled 5 straight finishes in the top 10. Including finishes of 9th, 9th, 10th, 7th and 1st. In those last 12 starts, he has posted 9 Top 10 finishes during that span. On top of that, he has posted 2 wins during that 12-race span. His first win was back in 2009 and the last win came in 2013. He led 71 laps and 72 laps. Chicago is another very good track for him, especially lately. He started off his career pretty rocky at Chicago. As he finished 16th or worse in 5 of his first 8 races at Chicago. In his last 4 races at this place? His finishes consists of 4th, 6th, 1st and 6th. In his last 9 races, he has posted 6 Top 8 finishes. He had finishes of 8th and 5th in 2009 and 2010.
Shorter flats has always been a very strong type of track for Denny Hamlin and there's no reason to believe that will change now. Aside from Martinsville and Darlington, I would have to say that Richmond is one of Denny's top tracks. He has amazing record here and been the best driver in the series over the past couple seasons. In his last 5 starts at this track, he has compiled 5 straight finishes of 6th or better. Prior to that (from September 2012 to April 2015), he had no finishes better than 18th. That was just a rough path for Hamlin as it is clear that he is back on track now. Majority of those races were during tough times for Hamlin. Back in spring 2013 (he injured his back) and wasn't himself in 2013 or 2014. It wasn't until latter part of 2015 that Hamlin actually started to run again like the Old Denny Hamlin. So I get why, he had some struggles at certain places during those seasons. Prior to that, he posted 4 Top 5 finishes in 6-race span from September 2009 - April 2012.
Phoenix is another great track for Denny Hamlin and has a great record here. In his most recent race here, he led 193 laps before he faded in the event. Then as he faded to 4th place with a woeful racecar, he got into it with Chase Elliott. And that basically just hurried along the process for Hamlin's day that went from great to bad to worse. Even if that Elliott's situation didn't occur, I still think he would had missed the championship cutoff. Hell, I think he still end up in the wall, even if Elliott wasn't aggressive with him. Prior to that, he has had very good results. In his last 6 races (prior to last fall's race), he had compiled 5 finishes in the top 10. In 4 of those 5 races, he finished 7th or better. In 7 of the last 12 races overall, he has finished 8th or better. I also would like to point out that two of those five ''bad'' results were in November 2013 and March 2014. I usually just disregard finishes during that time period of his career. After those two finishes, he has gotten back on track for the most part.
Then there is New Hampshire. I would say it is a good track for him, but he does have a history of being inconsistent at times. In his last 6 races, he has finished 15th or better in all six races. In his last 9 races, he has finished 15th or better in 8 of those races. During that 9-race span, he has only 4 top 10 finishes and 2 top 5 finishes. He won back in 2016 at this track. In his first 11 starts at this track, he posted 6 top 6 finishes. In his last 12 races here, he has just 4 such finishes. Even though, he all 4 finishes ended in 2nd or better. In 24 career starts, he has a career average finish of 10.1 with 3 wins and 14 Top 10 finishes.
Hamlin isn't quite as good on the larger flats, but he is better than I think most people realize though. At Indy, he has been a stud of late. In his last 6 races here, he has compiled 4 finishes in the top 6. He finished 17th in last season's race and finished 17th. If you need a refresher on the 2017 Brickyard's race, it wasn't basically Daytona on steroids. 14 cautions with pretty much every car in the field aside from the top 3 or 4 drivers being involved in wrecks. Hamlin wrecked with Menard on the final caution, but Hamlin had issues on that final restart. He had a flat tire and was really just a disaster waiting to happen. Prior to finishing 17th at Indy in 2017, he had 3 straight top 5 finishes from 2014 to 2016. Then there's Pocono, he has always been very good here. In 24 career starts, he has managed 4 career wins. In his first 10 career starts, he posted 4 wins and 7 Top 5 finishes. He was the master here to start his career and now the playing field is a lot more even. But he still getting a lot of good results though. In his last 8 races, he has compiled 6 finishes of 12th or better. Including 5 of those 8 races ending in the top 10. Currently, he has finished 14th or better in 4 straight races at Pocono. His lone bad finish since start June 2014 is 22nd place in August 2015.
Martinsville and Bristol are the next two tracks that we are gonna look at! He is obviously very good at Martinsville, I would say that is known for being one of the best drivers in the series here. He is a 5-timer winner at this track and his history is impressive overall. In 5 of his last 7 races at Martinsville, he has finished 8th or better. In 11 of his last 16 races overall, he has finished 8th or better. During that 16-race span, he has compiled 4 wins. His last win coming back in March 2015. He has a lot more luck in the fall races though. Since 2013 season, he has finished 8th or better in every race here. His last three fall's race finishes consists of 7th, 3rd and 3rd. You don't need all of these numbers to know that Hamlin is a stud at Martinsville. You knew this already!
Bristol is a good track for him, but like any driver out there, he have some inconsistent numbers. He is very good at this place though. In his last 5 races at this track, he ha compiled 4 finishes in the top 10. Overall 3 of those 5 races has ended in 3rd. What does all three races have in common? They all happened during the August's race. His last three August's race: 3rd, 3rd and 3rd. His last August's race? 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 40th, 28th, 1st and 7th. So 5 of his last 7 August races has ended in the top 7. In his last 13 races overall at Bristol, he has only posted 7 Top 10 finishes. So 5 of 7 has came in the August's race. Pretty easy to figure out where his better finish could come between the two dates.
Road courses for number of seasons where considered a major weakness for Denny Hamlin. From 2010 to 2015 (at both road courses), he posted JUST 2 Top 20 finishes during those 12 races. In the past two seasons? He has 4 finishes in the top 4. In each of the last two seasons, he has finished in the top 4 every single time. He won at Watkins Glen in 2016, after leading 10 laps. He finished 4th in 2017. At Sonoma, he finished 2nd at Sonoma in 2016. He could have won that race, if he didn't overdrive a turn on the final lap. I also feel like he didn't want to be a dickhead to Tony Stewart in his final season. He could have easily take the #14 car out and the win all in one. But he didn't. In 2017, he finished 4th. He has led 44 laps in the last two seasons at Sonoma. That is the most in the series. Among drivers with at least 20 laps led at Sonoma, there are only 3 other active drivers. Stewart and Edwards are currently out of the sport. Only Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr and AJ Dinger has led over 20 laps at Sonoma in past two seasons.
Plate tracks are great for Hamlin, but I think a lot of people will forget that after a down year on the plate tracks in 2017. He finished 17th and 24th at Daytona in 2017. In his last three races at Daytona, he does NOT have a finish better than 17th. In his 5 previous races (from February 2014 to February 2016), he compiled 5 straight finishes of 6th or better. During that span, he posted 3 straight top 4 finishes. He has been a bit more stable at Talladega lately. In 5 of his last 8 races at Talladega, he has finished 11th or better. Including 3 straight top 11 finishes at Talladega. I personally would trust him a little more in the spring races though. In his last 4 spring races at Talladega, he has compiled finishes of 11th, 31st, 9th and 1st. In the fall races? 3rd,6th, 37th and 18th. So the roles have basically reversed lately. He use to be better in the spring races in 2014 and 2015. But in 2016 and 2016, he has been better in the fall race. Only Denny Hamlin could pull that off!
Alright folks, I think it is time to wrap this thing up! Hamlin will probably win a couple races in 2018 and fair share of his success will most likely come in the summer and fall months. For whatever reason, he has struggled to perform well and to get finish early in the season. I don't know why and I personally don't care. Long as this trend continue, it makes my job a lot easier. Of course, if he comes running out of the gate, then I have a entire fuckery on my hands. Us fantasy nascar folks like things to stay consistent. Knowing Denny, he will throw a curve ball to us and win a couple races before the All-star race. Who know, but we do know where he will be his strong at though. The shorter flats and intermediate tracks. This has been where Joe Gibbs Racing seems to have the biggest edge on everyone else. I am not ready to trust Hamlin on the road courses yet, but he is making it really hard not to. Especially after the numbers he has posted in the last two seasons. The plate tracks he has thrown us for a loop for years. He was terrible for years until 2014 and then looked unstoppable. For our sake, I hope he get back to be a consistent top 5 threat at both Daytona and Talladega.
I don't really have a lot more to say about Hamlin. He will get his wins and bunch of top 10 finishes. Hamlin is really starting to come back into his own as a driver after a couple rough seasons in 2013 and 2014. I think this could be his season, where he goes out and finally put it all together. What do you think? I think anything possible, if you put enough time and effort into it!
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
