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Brad Keselowski had a very good 2017 season, he made the Nascar playoffs and got into the championship race at Homestead. But I don't think he ever was a ''true'' championship contender. Of the four drivers in the championship hunt, I would considered him as the weak link. When looking at the season as a whole, more often than not he was between the 4th and 6th best driver. I am not saying he didn't deserve to be in the championship, but it was pretty clear he was missing a step when it came to possibly taking the championship home!
Keselowski is a pretty well-rounded driver for the most part, but intermediate tracks remain his strong suit though. Penske was down in 2017, but it didn't stop Keselowski from being one of the most consistent drivers in the series, either. He posted 3 wins with 16 Top 5 finishes and 21 Top 10 finishes as well to his credit. On the intermediate tracks, he was strong. How did he fair on the bread and butter 1.5 milers? Quite well, actually. In 11 races, he posted 7 finishes of 6th or better. Including a win back at Atlanta. He followed that up top 5 finishes at Las Vegas and Kansas in the incoming months. Of course middle of the season was a bit more rocky, as he had a few DNFs at both Charlotte and Kentucky. At end of the year, he got things rolling once again though. He had 3 Top 7 finishes in his final 5 races on this type of track during the playoffs.
I think Kentucky is his best 1.5 mile track and he would make a very strong case as his best track on the schedule. He has been very good here throughout his career and that success started before Kentucky was at the cup level. In 7 career starts (all since 2011), he has finishes of 7th or better in 5 of those races. Since the 2012 season, Keselowski has 3 wins during that 6-race stench. This is with 2 DNFs, too. A really good thing for Keselowski in 2018? His wins has came in even years. He posted wins in 2012, 2014 and 2016. He should be due for another win in 2018, if the trend holds true!
Las Vegas and Chicago are considered as his next two best tracks on the schedule, in my personal opinion. I love him at both tracks, but Las Vegas really stands out to me. Over the past 5 seasons at Vegas, he has compiled 4 Top 5 finishes. His worst finish is 7th back in 2015. Like with Kentucky, he have found the most success on even years. He won in 2014 and 2016. He might be due for another win in 2018 at Las Vegas. Then there's Chicago. When looking at career point of view, this is considered his best racetrack. He has only made 9 career starts here, but he have made them all count though. Since the 2011 season (7 races ago), he has compiled 7 straight finishes of 8th or better. Once again, he has found the most success on even years. Over the past 3 even seasons (2012, 2014 and 2016), Keselowski has finishes of 1st (2012), 1st (2014) and 5th (2016). He finished 6th last year at Chicago. If the trend holds up, he should get back into the top 5 and maybe more.
The next type of track that I would like to look at is the flats tracks! I think he's really good at both the larger and shorter flats, but he tend to have a few bad results here and there though. Let's look at the shorter flats first! Richmond has been very good over the recent seasons here and have posted 7 Top 11 finishes in his last 8 races. In his last 5 races, he has compiled 3 finishes of 8th or better. When comparing the spring races to the fall races, he is better in the fall (or summer race - whatever you call it) races. As he has finished 11th or better in 3 straight seasons now. Including finishes of 2nd and 8th in 2 of those three seasons.
New Hampshire is probably best shorter flat racetrack when looking at the numbers in recent seasons. In his last 8 races at New Hampshire, he has compiled 6 finishes of 9th or better. And in all 8 races, he has finished 15th or better. Digging deeper into the data pool, he has very impressive. Over his last 13 races, he haven't finished worse than 15th. In fact, he has finished 9th or better in 10 of the last 13 races at New Hampshire. Including 9 of the last 13 races in 7th or better. Then there's Phoenix, I would have to say that this is his worst shorter flat. He's actually pretty good here overall, just not as good as the other two that I have listed above. Over the past 8 races, he has finished 9th or better in 5 of those races. However, he haven't done that well over the past two seasons here though As he has posted finishes of 16th, 14th, 29th and 5th. While not leading a single lap. From 2012 to 2015, he did not finish worse than 11th and only twice worse than 6th.
Now let's move onto the larger flats of Indy and Pocono. Both of these tracks has been pretty solid tracks for Keselowski lately and certainly should keep up the good work in 2018. Let's look at Indy first. He scored his first top 5 finish in 2017 at Indy. But it was the third straight season, where he led laps at Indy though. In his last four races, he has compiled 3 finishes of 12th or better. In his last 7 starts, he has posted 5 finishes of 12th or better. And 4 finishes of 10th or better. In his last 7 races, he has led in 5 different races. Despite only posting one top 5 finish.
Martinsville and Bristol are the next two tracks that I would like to look at. I think Martinsville is one of Keselowski's best tracks and he never get enough credit for it. In his last 11 races here, he has compiled 8 finishes of 6th or better. In his last 6 races here, Keselowski has compiled 5 finishes of 5th or better. At Martinsville, he was very good in 2017. He led 100+ laps and finished 4th and 1st in two races during 2017. In 3 of his last 5 Martinsville races, he has led at least 100 laps. Okay let's move onto the next track of Bristol. And it haven't been a very friendly place in terms of good finishes for Bristol. In 7 of his last 9 races, he has finished 14th or worse. In 4 of his last 6 races, he has finished 29th or worse. Including finishes of 29th and 34th in 2017.
Road courses are always an interesting place and Keselowski always seem to make things interesting, too. Watkins Glen is his better road course and I don't think it is very close at all. He has led in three straight seasons at Watkins Glen and has finishes of 7th and 3rd in 2 of the last 3 races. In his last 7 career starts here, he has compiled 5 finishes of 7th or better. In those 5 races, he has 4 finishes of 3rd or better. He last finished 3rd or better in 2016. In last season's race, he finished 15th. He was much better than that, but he ran out of fuel though. At Sonoma, he scored his first top 10 finish since the 2011 season. He finished 3rd in last season's race and that was his first career top 5 finish at Sonoma. However, that was his first finish better than 15th place in last 5 seasons though. It's encouraging to see him get a top 5 finish, but I really need to see more out of him.
Plate tracks are always a place where Keselowski seems to be really good or really bad. Over the past two seasons, he has posted 3 wins in his last 8 plate races. At Talladega, he have posted two of those wins. In his last 7 races at Talladega, he has compiled 3 wins. That's nearly 50% of the time since the 2014 season. In his last 5 of 7 races here, he has finishes of 7th or better. It has been a amazing track for Keselowski over the past three seasons. He's not quite as good at Daytona though. He posted a win over the past two seasons, but that's the best I can say about him though. In his last 7 races, he has finished 18th or better in 6 of those 7 races. While 4 of the last 6 races at Daytona, he's posted finishes of 27th or better. You can see what track that he is clearly better on.
I expect great things from Brad Keselowski in 2018! He may not be the homerun that we are looking for every single week. But more often than not, he will be there at the end. And that alone will give him a shot at a great finish. Let alone, if he actually has a great racecar. I think Keselowski will have about 2 to 3 wins in 2018. And much like every other year, you can expect his total of top 5 finishes to be in the middle teens and his top 10 finishes to be somewhere in the 20s. I am not expecting anything out of the unusual for him. It will be like pretty much any other year. He contend for wins, be consistent and find a way to be in the conversation for a top 10 (and plus some) on a every week basis. That's all I really got to say about him for the most part.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Brad Keselowski had a very good 2017 season, he made the Nascar playoffs and got into the championship race at Homestead. But I don't think he ever was a ''true'' championship contender. Of the four drivers in the championship hunt, I would considered him as the weak link. When looking at the season as a whole, more often than not he was between the 4th and 6th best driver. I am not saying he didn't deserve to be in the championship, but it was pretty clear he was missing a step when it came to possibly taking the championship home!
Keselowski is a pretty well-rounded driver for the most part, but intermediate tracks remain his strong suit though. Penske was down in 2017, but it didn't stop Keselowski from being one of the most consistent drivers in the series, either. He posted 3 wins with 16 Top 5 finishes and 21 Top 10 finishes as well to his credit. On the intermediate tracks, he was strong. How did he fair on the bread and butter 1.5 milers? Quite well, actually. In 11 races, he posted 7 finishes of 6th or better. Including a win back at Atlanta. He followed that up top 5 finishes at Las Vegas and Kansas in the incoming months. Of course middle of the season was a bit more rocky, as he had a few DNFs at both Charlotte and Kentucky. At end of the year, he got things rolling once again though. He had 3 Top 7 finishes in his final 5 races on this type of track during the playoffs.
I think Kentucky is his best 1.5 mile track and he would make a very strong case as his best track on the schedule. He has been very good here throughout his career and that success started before Kentucky was at the cup level. In 7 career starts (all since 2011), he has finishes of 7th or better in 5 of those races. Since the 2012 season, Keselowski has 3 wins during that 6-race stench. This is with 2 DNFs, too. A really good thing for Keselowski in 2018? His wins has came in even years. He posted wins in 2012, 2014 and 2016. He should be due for another win in 2018, if the trend holds true!
Las Vegas and Chicago are considered as his next two best tracks on the schedule, in my personal opinion. I love him at both tracks, but Las Vegas really stands out to me. Over the past 5 seasons at Vegas, he has compiled 4 Top 5 finishes. His worst finish is 7th back in 2015. Like with Kentucky, he have found the most success on even years. He won in 2014 and 2016. He might be due for another win in 2018 at Las Vegas. Then there's Chicago. When looking at career point of view, this is considered his best racetrack. He has only made 9 career starts here, but he have made them all count though. Since the 2011 season (7 races ago), he has compiled 7 straight finishes of 8th or better. Once again, he has found the most success on even years. Over the past 3 even seasons (2012, 2014 and 2016), Keselowski has finishes of 1st (2012), 1st (2014) and 5th (2016). He finished 6th last year at Chicago. If the trend holds up, he should get back into the top 5 and maybe more.
The next type of track that I would like to look at is the flats tracks! I think he's really good at both the larger and shorter flats, but he tend to have a few bad results here and there though. Let's look at the shorter flats first! Richmond has been very good over the recent seasons here and have posted 7 Top 11 finishes in his last 8 races. In his last 5 races, he has compiled 3 finishes of 8th or better. When comparing the spring races to the fall races, he is better in the fall (or summer race - whatever you call it) races. As he has finished 11th or better in 3 straight seasons now. Including finishes of 2nd and 8th in 2 of those three seasons.
New Hampshire is probably best shorter flat racetrack when looking at the numbers in recent seasons. In his last 8 races at New Hampshire, he has compiled 6 finishes of 9th or better. And in all 8 races, he has finished 15th or better. Digging deeper into the data pool, he has very impressive. Over his last 13 races, he haven't finished worse than 15th. In fact, he has finished 9th or better in 10 of the last 13 races at New Hampshire. Including 9 of the last 13 races in 7th or better. Then there's Phoenix, I would have to say that this is his worst shorter flat. He's actually pretty good here overall, just not as good as the other two that I have listed above. Over the past 8 races, he has finished 9th or better in 5 of those races. However, he haven't done that well over the past two seasons here though As he has posted finishes of 16th, 14th, 29th and 5th. While not leading a single lap. From 2012 to 2015, he did not finish worse than 11th and only twice worse than 6th.
Now let's move onto the larger flats of Indy and Pocono. Both of these tracks has been pretty solid tracks for Keselowski lately and certainly should keep up the good work in 2018. Let's look at Indy first. He scored his first top 5 finish in 2017 at Indy. But it was the third straight season, where he led laps at Indy though. In his last four races, he has compiled 3 finishes of 12th or better. In his last 7 starts, he has posted 5 finishes of 12th or better. And 4 finishes of 10th or better. In his last 7 races, he has led in 5 different races. Despite only posting one top 5 finish.
Martinsville and Bristol are the next two tracks that I would like to look at. I think Martinsville is one of Keselowski's best tracks and he never get enough credit for it. In his last 11 races here, he has compiled 8 finishes of 6th or better. In his last 6 races here, Keselowski has compiled 5 finishes of 5th or better. At Martinsville, he was very good in 2017. He led 100+ laps and finished 4th and 1st in two races during 2017. In 3 of his last 5 Martinsville races, he has led at least 100 laps. Okay let's move onto the next track of Bristol. And it haven't been a very friendly place in terms of good finishes for Bristol. In 7 of his last 9 races, he has finished 14th or worse. In 4 of his last 6 races, he has finished 29th or worse. Including finishes of 29th and 34th in 2017.
Road courses are always an interesting place and Keselowski always seem to make things interesting, too. Watkins Glen is his better road course and I don't think it is very close at all. He has led in three straight seasons at Watkins Glen and has finishes of 7th and 3rd in 2 of the last 3 races. In his last 7 career starts here, he has compiled 5 finishes of 7th or better. In those 5 races, he has 4 finishes of 3rd or better. He last finished 3rd or better in 2016. In last season's race, he finished 15th. He was much better than that, but he ran out of fuel though. At Sonoma, he scored his first top 10 finish since the 2011 season. He finished 3rd in last season's race and that was his first career top 5 finish at Sonoma. However, that was his first finish better than 15th place in last 5 seasons though. It's encouraging to see him get a top 5 finish, but I really need to see more out of him.
Plate tracks are always a place where Keselowski seems to be really good or really bad. Over the past two seasons, he has posted 3 wins in his last 8 plate races. At Talladega, he have posted two of those wins. In his last 7 races at Talladega, he has compiled 3 wins. That's nearly 50% of the time since the 2014 season. In his last 5 of 7 races here, he has finishes of 7th or better. It has been a amazing track for Keselowski over the past three seasons. He's not quite as good at Daytona though. He posted a win over the past two seasons, but that's the best I can say about him though. In his last 7 races, he has finished 18th or better in 6 of those 7 races. While 4 of the last 6 races at Daytona, he's posted finishes of 27th or better. You can see what track that he is clearly better on.
I expect great things from Brad Keselowski in 2018! He may not be the homerun that we are looking for every single week. But more often than not, he will be there at the end. And that alone will give him a shot at a great finish. Let alone, if he actually has a great racecar. I think Keselowski will have about 2 to 3 wins in 2018. And much like every other year, you can expect his total of top 5 finishes to be in the middle teens and his top 10 finishes to be somewhere in the 20s. I am not expecting anything out of the unusual for him. It will be like pretty much any other year. He contend for wins, be consistent and find a way to be in the conversation for a top 10 (and plus some) on a every week basis. That's all I really got to say about him for the most part.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
