CFB Betting Predictions (Friday edition - 10/6)

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It was a rough go around last night as I whipped on all three of my recommendations. Now, they weren't bad predictions when you look at the games as a whole. Liberty was too sloppy with the football, despite killing Sam Houston St in yards, it was not converting on 3rd down and silly mistakes that made it such a close contest. Their defense allowed too many easy throws, too. In the LA Tech and Western Kentucky game, I think LA Tech defense just got off to slow of a start. Western Kentucky had 3 long Touchdowns of over 50 yards because very sloppy tackling and thinking they go out of bounce they would get force to the sidelines. In the second half, Western Kentucky had two first downs and 0 points. They just came up a little short. 

We will move onto Friday night and try to bounce back. The Friday night games have been very good to me overall. So I am hoping that trend continues and we can get back on track tonight. There are two College Football games on tonight and I am gonna break down both of them!

Kansas state vs Oklahoma state 

Current line as of posting: -11.5/+11.5

I think people kinda forget how good Kansas state really is because of Texas and Oklahoma stealing the show. In wins this season, Kansas state has average roughly 40 points per game and won by multiple TDs in all three wins. Their lone loss? It was a ridiculous long FG by Missouri with a couple seconds left. It should be also noted that Missouri has a great defense and Kansas state still managed 27 points in that contest. Oklahoma state doesn't have a defense like that. When you are looking at Oklahoma state's schedule, their best two opponents has been Iowa State and South Alabama. They loss both of those games. Another reason to like Kansas state? They have a great run defense so Oklahoma would have to get in a shootout with Kansas state to stay pace. For a team being in the bottom 3 in scoring offense and total yards per game, I don't think that is wise. The Oklahoma state defense also ranked bottom half of the league so far in most categories as well. 

End of the day, I don't think this Oklahoma state is very good on both side of the ball. I think Kansas state has the upper hand on both side of the ball and I fully expect them to go up double digits by halftime. It is hard seeing this game being a one or even two score game when it is all said and done! Take Kansas state and lay the points with them!

Recommendation - Kansas state -11.5 and up to -14

Nebraska vs Illinois

Current line as of posting: +3.5

Folks, this is gonna be an ugly one. I am personally not betting on this game because when two bad teams play like this then bad things will happen. I do believe the right play on this game is getting the points with Nebraska. I believe that for a couple reasons, frankly. I think Nebraska has the advantage up front in the trenches on both side of the ball. Neither team can pass, but I believe Nebraska has a bigger strength in running the football vs a bad run defense. I think that matchup will be key because if Nebraska are capable of running the football, I think the getting a FG and the hook is excellent value. What if they can't? Well, I think Nebraska has a lot bigger issues than I originally thought and I wasn't high on them to begin with. 

I want to like Illinois here, but they have been maybe the biggest disappointment in the Big 10 this season. Considering this is a team that won 10 games a year ago. This is also team that expected to be a good defensive team once again and been god awful instead. I think that what made them so good in 2022, it was their defensive unit. It has taken a step back and this team cant move the ball on offense. They will look to run on early downs and pray they don't get into 3rd and long. They don't pass the ball well, but I think they are more capable than Nebraska. However, I think Nebraska is more capable of forcing them behind the chains than Illinois is  

This could be ugly game and I rather have the points with Nebraska in this spot!

Recommendation - Nebraska +3.5 

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Site Owner 

Garry Briggs   

CFB/NFL Betting Predictions (Thursday Edition 10/5)

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Happy Thursday, sports fans! For the next 7 weeks, there is football on every single day of the week! We all have an excellent chance to win a lot of money, but we also have to be smart about so we have enough money to bet everyday. There is a big difference in betting a couple times a week and 7 days a weeks for extended period time! The first day (yesterday), we got off a decent start. I put two units on Jacksonville st (+3.5) and then 1 unit on under 52. Jacksonville state came back and won by 45-30 after being down 23-7. However, the under didn't hit. I didn't love the under not cashing, but I ended up a little over half unit up for the night. So what should we do for day 2? It is hard to say since there is only a couple games on. I will give you my personal plays for each game. There are two College Football games on and one NFL game on. Let's dig in!

Liberty vs Sam Houston State

Current line as of posting: -20.5/+20.5

You know I originally thought making this my favorite play of the night, but I have since taken a step back. Not because I don't think this is a blowout. Because this game has the making of a complete utter manslaughter. Liberty has one of the best offenses in the nation and ranked in the top 10 in points per game and yards. They are number 2 in rushing offense to only Air Force. They rack up over 270 yards per game on the ground and still average over 200 yards through the air. They are lethal on offense and their defensive rankings are all very strong. Sam Houston State are dead last in points per game and only once topped double digits points in a game. That happened to be in their last game, where they went crazy for 28. As crazy as it sounds, that worried me. Now, do I think that was fluke? You bet your bottom dollar, I do. I think Liberty will roll Sam Houston State pretty good. Personally, I don't like backing heavy favorites though. So I won't have any money in this game, but I think there is a strong chance Liberty is up by at least two and a half touchdowns by halftime. Back Liberty on the spread at 20.5. I would go up to 21.0, if I had

Official recommendation: Liberty -20.5

Western Kentucky vs LA Tech

Current line as of posting: -6/+6

This will be the best game of the three and there are two plays that I actually would recommend, which would depend how you want to play it. Western Kentucky is the 6 points favorite in this matchup, which is fair since they are regarded as one of the top teams in CUSA. But are they? They have taken a noticeable step back this season compared to last season. Austin Reed is a stud at QB, but they aren't moving the ball as well as last season. He getting pressured at a lot high rate than a year ago and his WRs are dropping balls at a higher rate than a year ago. On other side, Western Kentucky defense has been inconsistent and hasn't been able to effectively stop the run. Their pass defense is still pretty decent, though. LA Tech isn't anything special, especially if the backup is playing again. That isn't why I like them in this matchup, though. They have excellent secondary and quite possibly one of the best outside of the Power 5. One thing about Western Kentucky this season is, they haven't fair well vs good secondaries. This will be one of those games. So do I think Western Kentucky win by a full touchdown? I don't and I also believe the total of 59.5 is way too high for this matchup based on things we have already discussed! 

My official recommendation: LA Tech +6 (down to +5.5) or under 59.5 (down to 56.5)

Bears vs Commanders 

Current line as of posting: -6/+6

I just want it to be known that I will not be playing anything on Thursday night football. Now, I do feel decent about the play that I am writing up about. However, I have zero interest in watching a game between the Bears and Commanders. That just sounds awful, the only people watching that game are those respected fanbases or sicko that bet on because they feel they need to bet on the NFL. Not me, though. However, if I were looking at an angle for this game. I think the spread for this game is a little too high overall. Look, the Bears suck. We all know that, but I don't personally think the Commanders are all that much better. At least not a full Touchdown better. I think Justin Fields will get loose in the opening field and be able to move the football. It also should be noted that teams that played Overtime on the previous Sunday, went 1-8 on the spread on Thursday night football. That is not a good number. I don't love the Commanders secondary, either. Justin Fields isn't a good passer, but as Denver showed us that bad secondaries can make even bad quarterbacks look good. Washington is better than Denver, but I think Fields will hit some plays and keep this game close enough. Remember this is the NFL, we don't see blowouts every game. I think this spread is simply too high

Official recommendation: Bears +6

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Site Owner 

Garry Briggs  

 

Football Betting Predictions (Thursday September 28th)

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Last week, it wasn't a bad week betting as Wednesday and Sunday were the only day in the dreaded red. On Monday, we hammered the Saints. On Tuesday, we cashed in on WNBA. Wednesday, well let's just say luck wasn't on our side. On Thursday, we attacked the Niners' spread and Georgia state's spread. Then Friday, we got healthy on Wisconsin and Air Force. Saturday, it was a mix bags of tricks. We scored with FSU (money line) and Army on the spread. A poor outcome with Ole Miss and Colordo both failing to cover as sizable dogs. However, we ended the night with Kansas state ML, Notre Dame +3.5 and New Mexico State +3.5. And let's not talk about Sunday that much because it was depressing overall outcome

So far this week it is looking another strong week! We hit on the Eagles on Monday, a pair of strong underdog spreads in WNBA on Tuesday and a nice win by the Marlins on Wednesday. Folks, if you have enough of money to work with, then all it takes is one or two bets and you are a couple units up for the day. With limited sports going on right now, there isn't much more we can ask for! So once again, we are gonna keep the bets to a limited until the weekend roll around. In fact, I have two football bets for tonight that you should consider!

NFL 

Lions vs Packers 

Current line as of posting: -1.5/+1.5

The vibe I have gotten this week about this game is everyone is expecting the Lions to blow out the Packers. Frankly, I might be in the minority here but I don't hate the Packers here. They bring a good defense with a quality pass rush and secondary. On offense, they are getting back Jones and Watson most likely. I think the speed of Watson and Jones effectiveness/flexibility to line up anywhere will be huge for the Packers. I think if Aaron Rodgers was still the QB in Green Bay, they would be the favored. I think in general, people don't want to admit that Jordan Love isn't bad at all. He has been inaccurate, but some of that is on the playcalling. Love is making his 5th career start on Thursday night, he got some things he need to work on. However, he is better than people want to give him credit for. 

Lions have been one of the best feel good stories over the last couple years. I am a Packers fan and I want to see this Lions team do well. Just not when they play the Packers. They are a talented group. They have a consistent QB, a good running back room, a top 5 offensive line unit and playmakers all over the field. On defense side of the ball, they have been great at stopping the run and as always an underrated secondary group, too. 

What side should we bet on, though? I want to say the Packers, I really do! But I don't think the Packers defense will get more stops than the Packers offense will make big plays. If this was end of the season, I would love the Packers' chance a lot more because I believe this Packers team will get better as the season goes on. Last week was a great example of them wasting away several chances for big time scores. The fact that they only scored 18 points is sad. They were in position to drop 30 on the Saints, but didn't. Give me the more experienced and capable offense!    

Recommendation: Lions ML

CFB

Temple vs Tulsa 

Current line as of posting: -3/+3

This will be an interesting game and honestly, I don't know if there is a clear side to be on here. Tulsa has been battle tested more early in the season. However, they love to run the football which is a problem. Unless you can stay ahead of the sticks and score often, then it is hard to trust a run-minded team. I think injury to their QB run has been deadly early in the season. As they are gonna have to rely on the run game until they are more healthy at the position! 

Temple are the complete opposite, as they don't really run the ball well. They are a consistent pass-first offense that can move the football. I don't think they have been as good as we were expecting, though. I think many people were expecting them to take a bigger step forward with their offense. Much like Tulsa, they have a strength (pass game) going against Tulsa's pass defense (biggest weakness). 

This matchup kinda reminds me a lot of last Friday night's game between San Jose state and Air Force. One team love running the ball and the other like doing it damage through the air. In theory, the rushing team would like to get up early and dominate the TOP (time of possession). Exactly what Air Force did in that game. Can Tulsa do that? I think they can cause huge problems for Temple's run defense, but they aren't on the Air Force level. And to me, that tells me if Tulsa can't dominate like that then it kinda favor Temple on the spread. Temple don't need points on each drive, but they do need to force Tulsa into 2nd and 3rd and longs. If Tulsa only get a couple yards on first or second down, then Tulsa will not cover this game. 

Recommendation: Temple +3.5 

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Twitter - @Garryy12

Thanks for reading

Site Owner 

Garry Briggs 

CFB Betting and Predictions Week 4 (Friday Edition)

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Football is back and so far it has been a crazy couple weeks of betting for your friend, Garry! Two weekends ago, I went 17-2 on my bets. Then last week it was a complete circus but betting on MLB middle of the week usually don't bodes well for your betting momentum. So I stood out of doing anything last weekend, minus betting Indiana +10 and Kansas st ML, which ended as you would thought *face palm*

This week has been much better, though. The mojo is back! Hit on Saints ML and Steelers (live) ML on Monday night. We came back on Tuesday to hit on WNBA with Washington Mystics +6.5 and Dallas Wings -6.5. Wednesday, we got off track by betting the Reds in the early afternoon. Good bet as Greene struckout 14 batters in the first 7 innings but it all ended south with the bullpen as they lost 4-3 somehow. Next up was the Rockies ML +135 (live). I normally stay away from bad teams, but MLB is exception. They led the entire game until the 8th inning. It wasn't a smart bet, but it was one they should have won. So I am fine with that outcome. The lynx was up next at 8 and it was one I do regret. As they lose by 15 to the Sun in the WNBA

As bettors, we are always looking to get our money back and that why Vegas loves us! Unless, we get hot and that exactly what happened next! First, I went Tigers/Dodgers under 8.5. Banger. Followed it up on Thursday with Brewers ML, as you would expect it was easy money. Then of course it was football on Thursday and it was an no doubter. As I placed 3 single bets on Georgia state spread of +7.5. I loved Georgia state so much I put a 4th one together with 49ers -9.5. 

We are gonna try to keep the momentum going into Friday night and then onto Saturday massive slate of games! As a bettor, it doesn't get much better than this! There's a lot of good games on Saturday and we are gonna try to feast before NFL Sunday Week 3 starts. If we play our cards right, then we can have a really good weekend! 

Let's roll into Week 4 betting predictions!

Wisconsin vs Purdue, 7 pm Friday 

I don't love Wisconsin, I just don't. They have a great backfield and good blocking offensive line. But this new offense really haven't taken off as many were hyping them up to be under their new coach. Now, they are 2-1 which is good. But problem is, they have gotten off to poor starts in every single game this season. I think part of it is because their defense really hasn't lived up to the expectations, either. It is an all-around issue on both sides of the ball.

Purdue hasn't been good at all this season, especially on defense side of the ball. I am not concerned about the offense as they have been able to score points. That is not the problem here by any means. I do have a concern about them turning the ball over, though. If they lose the turnover battle on Friday night, I really don't give them much of a chance of winning this game. If they want to beat Badgers for the first time in last 17 games, then they will have to be perfect. They will need to create some turnovers and stop the run. Then be able to effective move the ball

Personally, I can't take Purdue in Friday's night game. Even on the spread, I think 5.5 is not enough points for me to feel comfortable. I think if you combine that with 16 straight losses to the Badgers, I don't want any part of the Boilermakers! Now, I don't want any part of Wisconsin on the spread, either. They haven't proven to me that they can trusted by any means. They will win this football game, but there is only one play I am comfortable with in this matchup!

Recommendation: Badgers Money Line 

Air Force vs San Jose State, 10:30 pm Friday   

This battle between these two teams are two teams that have scheduled their opponents vastly different so far. San Jose St picked a tougher schedule with the likes of USC and Oregon st in the first couple games, while Air Force have played the likes of Utah State and Robert Morris. So the question becomes, are we sure Air Force should be the favorites here? I think the answer is zero question! In betting, we look at three things. If they are the favorite, we look how they played lesser talented teams. In Air Force's case, they have dogwalked all 3 teams they played. Bad teams don't do that. Next, we look at the opponent. What do they do well and what do they don't well? Well, I think San Jose state has the best QB in their conference. Chevan Cordeiro is a fun and exciting player, overall I think he has done a fine job. Even with the tough schedule so far, I think he has done really well. I think the problem is San Jose state has allowed 175 rushing yards per game. That is a really big problem, though as Air Force is one of the nation's top rushing teams.

The third thing we look at is what does Air Force do well? There are two things that they will have advantage at in this game! The first (already mentioned) is that Air Force runs the ball extremely well. The second thing is they have a stellar defense. An defensive unit that performed very well in 2022 as well. So it isn't a fluke that the Falcons are looking sharp on defense side of the ball.  In betting, we know two things about this style of team. A run-first team is usually bad for unders and point spreads. In San Jose state's case, it is bad for their point spread. As Air Force will most likely drain the clock with the run game and limit the time that they have the ball. If this happens on Friday night, San Jose State will not cover this game. 

Personally, I am going with Air Force on the spread in this one. I think San Jose state has a capable offense and has done well vs the spread. But problem is, I just can't see them getting enough chances to keep it at a touchdown game!

Recommendation: Air Force -6

Have a question or comment? 

Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

Thanks for reading, 

Site owner 

Garry Briggs  

2023 Fantasy Nascar DFS Targets and Fades (Cali)

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If you play DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) games like FanDuel or DraftKings, then this is probably the article you are looking for as I will breakdown each week the drivers that I will be targeting and staying away from. It will make things more challenging this weekend as there was no practice and qualifying. I think it will be easier to get some value from some good drivers starting deep in the field and should move forward. With that said, there are some good drivers in the mid-price range that would be good options normally. However, if they are starting further up then their value goes down. Regardless, we have some nice plays for the weekend! Let's dig into targets and fades!

Targets - 

Chase Elliott - While I am not super high on Elliott as a possible race winning contender, I think he will be a great addition in DFS games as he is probably one of the best top drivers to start outside of the top 30. With that said, everybody and their mother will have him in their lineups this weekend. 

Kyle Larson - Larson will undoubtedly be one of the highest priced drivers this weekend at Cali, as he should with being the race defending winner. He is also starting 15th and should move up to the front and contend for the win. Larson is easily one of the most talented drivers in the field and ended 2022 very strong. I am very high on him for 2023 and I think he will contend for a lot of race wins, too. 

Kyle Busch - Much like Kyle Larson, I think Kyle Busch will be very strong in 2023. He will start outside of the top 20 and much like the other target drivers, he will start deeper in the field. In 23 races at Cali, he has produced 16 Top 10 finishes. So the chances are he will finish in the top 10 again this weekend. When we pick drivers that start deeper in the field, we need them to finish in the top 10 at least. I think Busch have enough upside to do that and possibly much more. Don't over think this!

Fades - 

Kevin Harvick - I think Harvick will finish just a few spots higher or lower than his starting position and that's a problem to me. To be a great DFS option, you must either gain a lot of positions or start up front and dominate. I don't think Harvick gonna challenge for a win and he starts too far up to be a good candidate to gain bunch of spots. Harvick is a easy candidate to avoid for me!

Alex Bowman - Some people might be on the Bowman wagon this weekend based on him domianting in 2020 here, but that's 3 seasons ago and he hasn't proven that he can consistently go out and lead laps at any given track. Bowman will start 4th and will likely head in the opposite direction. I say he might be able to hang around in back half of the top 10, but he is probably from there to a mid-teen driver. I don't buy into the hype with guy, I might if this was one of his teammates, though. 

Ryan Blaney - Blaney has 3 traits as a driver (in my opinion) and has consistently displayed these traits time and time again. The first would be the ability to consistently inconsistent. If you played Fantasy Nascar enough, I am sure you have been burned number of times by him. His second trait would be being the most unlucky driver in the sport. And the 3rd would be a weekly race contender to only be fool gold by end of the race. They all kinda go hand and hand. I don't trust Blaney and frankly he starts too far up to be a strong DFS play anyways. Even if he didn't have those concerns, I would probably stay away because he kinda in DFS hell starting 9th. Doesn't really start up front, but not far enough back to have the PD value, either. 

Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

2023 Fantasy Nascar Analysis Breakdown (Cali)

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We are back at it this weekend with some racing, but sadly it gonna be more challenging than we would like for us fantasy players. As both practice and qualifying has been cancelled, which means we are headed into Sunday's race pretty much blindfolded. We can take a guess on who will be strong and probably have a decent shot at being right based on 2022 results. But it will come with a little risk, but anything is a risk on any given race weekend. But we will solider on and try our best with the hand that we have been dealt with! As you can guess the point of this article is to breakdown the competition this weekend and it will basically be the Fantasy Nascar Update (one of our most popular posts for years) with just a different name to it! 

Let's get rolling!

1. Joey Logano - Logano was in my top 3 headed into the weekend and it is hard to not put him at No.1, though. He was probably 2nd headed into the week for me (with Larson being No.1) and he will start a dozen spots higher than the 5. Logano has everything you could ask for in a fantasy pick, honestly. He's coming off a 2nd place finish at Daytona, he was really good on intermediate tracks in 2022 and has a solid history of finishing up front at Cali. Not to mention, he's the defending cup champion for a reason! When you combine his equipment, starting position and other numbers, I think you gotta put him as the odds on favorite to win on Sunday afternoon! 

2. Kyle Larson - Larson is a great option this weekend and was in my view the odds on favorite headed into the weekend. He will start 15th and that kinda hurt him a little, but it don't mean he cant go up front and lead a lot of laps. Larson was extremely strong at end the season in 2022 on these intermediate tracks. Larson is a former winner here at Cali and is actually the defending race winner here, too. Larson is very capable of getting to the front and being one of the heavy favorites to win on Sunday! He might be the best play this weekend in DFS games, as he offers winning upside and some differential points. However, he will cost you top dollar money, no question! He will be worth it, though! 

3. Martin Truex Jr - I am a lot higher on Truex Jr than most people probably are and I think he gonna be a contender here at Cali! I think in general, he is a great fantasy pick and won't cost quite as much in DFS games as the two mentioned above (I haven't looked at prices though). Truex Jr should have plenty of motivation this weekend and I loved what I saw from him a few weeks ago out in LA. Let's see if that speed will translate to the 2-mile fast track! 

4. Kyle Busch - Busch is starting outside of the top 20, but I think he will be one of the guys at the front before it is over! He has been amazing here in his cup career. In 23 starts, he has produced 11 top 5 finishes and 16 Top 10 finishes. He seems to show up here with a very fast car almost every time and overall RCR isn't a real downgrade to me. They were fast last season with Reddick and I think that gonna be the same deal this weekend (and this season) with the new driver of the No.8 car

5. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has been great at 2-mile tracks over the past couple seasons, as he has compiled 6.2 average finish at these large intermediate tracks since 2020. He also was pretty strong on intermediate tracks in general in 2022. I don't think Hamlin is getting the love that he should this weekend as there are so many interesting top options to pick from. He is someone with top 10 floor and top 5 (and more) upside. He is very capable to challenge for a top 5 finish and I be shocked if he wasn't up front at some point in the race! 

6. Chase Elliott - I am honestly not super high on Elliott this weekend for whatever reason and I really don't know why besides starting very deep in the field. He has all the intangibles to be a top tier fantasy pick and will most likely be a top 10 finisher, if not more. He will probably be a very good DFS pick, but in generally I think he won't get to be anything more than a top 10 driver. He might challenge for a top 5, but my gut tells me no that he won't

7. Ross Chastain - I could probably put Ross higher on this list as I think he will have the speed to jump a couple of these guys. But if we learned anything about Mr. Chastain in 2022, then it is he's a true wildcard on the racetrack. Now, if I was certain that he had top 3 speed, then I would probably put him closer to that top 3. But with no practice or qualifying, I really don't know if I can totally trust him. So he is a little lower on my list than he would if he actually had cars on the track this weekend!

8. Christopher Bell - Bell is starting on the pole, but I don't think he is a very good DFS pick as he will likely fall from the race lead and only be a top 10 driver. At times in 2022, he showed off top 5 speed. However, if you use him in DFS, then you will need him to lead laps and finish in the top 3. I don't think he leads a chunk of the laps or finishes in the top 3. Again, there is no data for us to look at, but history says he will be a top 10 finisher. However, he will probably not be a race winning contender

9. William Byron - Willy B is one of the most interesting drivers over the past two seasons. He had a better 2021 season (than 2022), but the eye test says he was better in 2022. He did get more wins and finish higher in points in 2022. However, he was overall more consistent and had more top 5 (and top 10) finishes in 2021. Still, he was pretty good in both seasons and was really good on these intermediate tracks both seasons. He contended for wins a few times in 2022, too. It is hard to say if he will be capable of that this weekend, but I say he is at least in for a top 10 run on Sunday. Willy is a talented dude, so I say he upside to contend for a top 5. But as low as I got him, I personally don't believe that is likely for the No.24 car on Sunday. 

10. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is a very interesting play this weekend, as he is making his 750th start. I think Harvick was okay last season, but SHR was down on speed in 2022 overall. So it will be interesting to see if those cars are back to par with the competition. I think in general, Harvick performance was down more a few of his teammates. We expect such a high standard from him with his time at SHR, and at times he was the 2nd or 3rd best SHR driver. I really want Harvick to be a viable fantasy option this season. I just don't know if we will see that same guy that can contend for wins, we might have to go back to settling for just top 10 finishes out of him. I kinda get the feeling that what we will be seeing out of Kevin Harvick

Just missed - 

Ryan Blaney

Austin Dillon

Daniel Suarez

Tyler Reddick

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Twitter - @Garryy12

2023 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers and Dark Horses (Cali)

Welcome to Timerssports 

 My friends this is the article that will make or break your fantasy lineup. Anyone can pick the studs, but finding that value is your fantasy nascar lineup is the key. But before we get to the fun stuff, it is time for my yearly rant about people misusing these terms. Make no mistake, both ''sleepers'' and ''dark horses'' certainly have similarities, but they aren't always interchangeable. Dark horse are drivers that could possibly challenge for a win, but we don't expect them to. Think of someone like Tyler Reddick the past couple seasons. We knew he had the talent, but we didn't expect him to win or challenge for the win. That's a perfect dark horse candidate. Sleeper? Well typecially we are speaking more in ''value'' than the overall potential. That value will change throughout the season, too. Michael McDowell is a great example of being a sleeper pick. He usually held that value because the market would always undervalue him which made him a great sleeper pick at back-end of your fantasy lineup. See the difference? 

Sleepers - 

Chase Briscoe - Briscoe is an interesting option this weekend. He ended 2022 season with 2 top 5 finishes in his final 3 races on intermediate tracks. He was a major plus for someone like him that was pretty inconsistent for the most part. He certainly had his moments and some of those moments came on the intermediate tracks, too. He posted 3 of his 6 top 5 finishes at Charlotte, Las Vegas and Texas. He also had top 16 runs at Atlanta (twice), Kansas and Dover. Starting to see why I am probably higher than most on him? He also finished 16th at Cali last season and led 20 laps. There will be a market for Chase Briscoe on these intermediate tracks because he will be undervalue. Now, some weeks there will be less value than others, but he is one driver to keep an eye a nice sleeper play to sneak into your lineup! 

Austin Dillon - You could put him more as a dark horse pick, but I don't really view him that way yet because he really hasn't proven that he can hang more towards the front as oppose to the teens where he will likely be more times than not. With Dillon, you have to use him where he is a strength. He loves these fast tracks, more specifically he love these big fast tracks like Cali and Michigan. I remember back at Michigan in 2016, I was listening to the radio and they had a interview with him confessing his love for big fast tracks. Cali fits the type and he was a top 15 performer in 2022! In 2022 at Cali, he finished 2nd here at Cali. He finished 13th at Michigan. With the addition of Kyle Busch, I think Austin Dillon and RCR can get to that next level. At some point this season, we might be viewing him as a dark horse. He is really good here at Cali, too. If you are looking to sneak a fantasy pick into your lineup that has a high floor and high ceiling, but probably be overlooked a little? Austin Dillon just might be your secret weapon this weekend

Dark Horses - 

William Byron - I been a big believer in Willy B the last couple seasons and I honestly thought from the eye test that he had his best season in his cup career. But his overall numbers were a little better in 2021. Of course, he went 13 straight races (from Homestead to Charlotte) in 2021 with top 11 finishes. Then added a few more top 5 finishes in the month of June before falling off a little in 2021. He ended the year pretty strong, though. As he posted 4 Top 11 finishes in the final 5 races. In 2022, he was also very strong. He had less top 5s, top 10s, etc and a weaker average finish. However, he also led more laps and posted more wins. Also two wins in first 10 races, he fell off again middle portion of the season. But he was stronger to end the season, though. As he finished in the top 13 in the final 9 of 10 races. Like his teammates, Willy B will have advantage of some of his competitors at these fast tracks. 

Erik Jones - He wouldn't been someone that I put as a dark horse a year ago, but he was great last season with the No.43 car! Simply amazing and beat any expectations that I had for him and that team. We all knew that Erik was a talented dude and that was clear way back before he even got to cup. I think it took him leaving JGR for us to realize that this guy is waaaaay more talented than we remember. And that is no shot at Erik because anyone can drive a top tier car to the front, it takes someone special to do it with something less. He won at Darlington, that was the standout race for him. But he was strong on these intermediate and I make a case it was the strength of this time. He was a top 15 performer often, but it wasn't until 2nd half of the season, where we are going like, ''okay this team is onto something''. He won at Darlington, then followed it with some top 10 runs at Las Vegas and Texas. Prior to his win at Darlington, he also a 8th place run at Michigan in August and a top 10 run at Atlanta. What makes me super excited about him this weekend? His 3rd place showing last year at this track. He was super competitive in that race and held a stout driver rating throughout the event. He also finished 8th at it's sister track at Michigan! I wouldn't bet against him getting another top 10 finish this weekend and possibly more! 

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

2023 Fantasy Nascar Picks (Cali)

 Welcome to Timerssports

Last week, I simply made a post on drivers I liked and didn't like very much which isn't typically how I make my fantasy picks article overall. I usually post my fantasy picks from games that I play. But I work night shift and I haven't really looked at my lineups yet at time of posting of the article. So I just did my research and picked 8 drivers to write on. That will not be the case this week for Cali. I will make picks for the Driver Group Game (my personal favorite game) and Draft Kings lineup as well. Those are probably the only games I am playing this year. In other articles this weekend, I will breakdown drivers that I would be targeting and fading. I hope to add a few other articles to the site this weekend, too. This gonna be a big weekend for Timerssports. As for this post, I will likely just add the Driver Group Game (DGG) picks for now and come back on Sunday morning and add the DK lineup picks to this post. It's exciting times as we are ''really'' about to kick things into high gear for the 2023 season! 

DGG Picks: 

A - 

Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson 

Reasons - It's a new season, so I can't really say how to attack the new upcoming season on the first intermediate track. Hamlin has posted 6.3 average finish over his last 6 races on 2-mile tracks, so for now he is in my lineup. Kyle Larson is swinging 50% in his career for finishing in the top 5 at Cali and won this race a year ago. They didn't race here in 2021 and CGR was down on speed when they visited in 2019 and 2020. I don't think Larson and 5 car actually figured their car out until 2nd half of the race in 2022 when they won. If that 5 car unloads fast, I think the field should be very concerned. This is a very-like Kyle Larson track. 

B:

Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, Austin Dillon and Erik Jones 

Reasons - This is a crazy loaded tier where I am not concerned at all about picks. This tier has the 2,3,4,8,19,23,42,45,48 and list goes on. There are enough choices in this tier that it should not be a major concern like the C-list tier. With that said, I had 4 guys at first that I will use 7-9 times. But after doing a little thinking, I changed my selection up a little. I am still going with Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. Now for whatever reason that one of them look off in practice/qualifying, then I got two backup plans that should be a nice start-save option. Austin Dillon loves these big fast tracks and performed well at them in 2022. Erik Jones was very good at these type of track and finished 3rd here in 2022. Thinking outside of the box a little for this first race. 

C: 

AJ Dinger and Ryan Preece 

Reasons - This is interesting tier as we need 4 drivers to use 9 starts apiece from. Personally I will use 3 in this tier (Gibbs, Dinger and Preece or Gragson) most likely and get 9 starts elsewhere at Daytona, Talladega, road courses,etc. So my plan this weekend is to roll with Dinger and pair him with someone that could possibly get a start-save with. Preece is no bum. I believe Gibbs is top choice in this tier, then it goes probably Dinger then there a gap to Gragson and Preece. I think that gap could be a lot smaller than we think, though. 

Draft Kings Picks - TBD

Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

2023 Fantasy Nascar Picks (Daytona 500)

Welcome to Timerssports

About 10 years ago to the date (maybe a little more or less), I was preparing content for the 2013 season and the 2013 Daytona 500! That was believe it or not a full decade ago! It's really crazy how fast times fly by, but here we are entering the 2023 season. I am very disappointed in myself for not being able to produce much content the last few years, but I really hope to be better on that in 2023! I think what makes this website so popular is my content will always be free to my loyal readers. Now, that isn't a shot at any sites out that charges their readers for their content, as there are some amazing Fantasy Nascar website out there and I would recommend checking some of them out. But to me, that what always been an appealing factor to people. The fire content on here certainly helps out as well!

Onto to more important issues, though. Such as today's picks for the Daytona 500! I really debated if I were gonna post any content this weekend because Daytona and Talladega are such crapshoot! But with working night shift and having to be awake, I figured why not! With that being said, anyone says they know what gonna happen is lying to you. So how do we go about making picks? We look at past data and trends like we do at any other track. While the race will be unpredictable, there are certain drivers that run well enough consistently to avoid bad luck! We are gonna need some good luck today, but it never hurt to select a few drivers that know how to race these kind of races. That should be the plan for today for success! Folks, we grab some coffee (or beer in my case) and let's roll into 2023 season! 

5 drivers to target: 

Austin Cindric - Folks, he's a freaking stud here at Daytona! It don't matter the series, he has a knack for running well at places like this and trust me it's a talent. Some guys are really good in the draft and Austin qualifies as one of them. In his short sample cup career, he has 6.3 average finish at Daytona with 2 Top 5 (1 win - last year Daytona 500) finishes already. Since 2020, he also holds the best driver rating of 93.4 at Daytona. In 5 career starts at Daytona and Talladega, he has produced 3 top 10 finishes and 5 top 21 finishes. In 3 starts at Daytona, he has finishes of 1st, 3rd and 15th. 

Ryan Blaney - Blaney is one of those guys that will make or break your lineups most likely! He will likely finish in the top 10 or wreck out. Almost every time we come to Daytona or Talladega, that what it seems like we are getting from him. In his last 12 starts on superspeedway tracks, he has produced an 10.1 average finish with 7 top 10 finishes. That is the highest average finish and most top 10 finishes among drivers whom started every race since 2020. 

Bubba Wallace Jr - Bubba Wallace has a knack for running up front at these races and while he don't always finish in the top 5, he also has a knack for having a safe floor as well. As fantasy players, we LOVE that. In his last 12 races at Daytona and Talladega, he has compiled a whopping 11(!) Top 20 finishes with 4 of them ending in the top 5. So he isn't always finishing up front, but he probably won't kill your fantasy lineup either, though. 

Austin Dillon - Austin Dillon always has loved Daytona, I don't know what it is about this place that brings out the best in him. He won here last August, but he has a history of being really good at the Daytona 500 from a consistency standpoint overall. He finished 25th in last season's Daytona 500 and that is his worst career finish at this event (since being in the #3 car). In 2014, he finished 9th. After that? 14th, 9th, 19th, 1st, 16th, 12th and 17th. So even when he doesn't finish up in the top 10, he is still giving you some consistency with his incredible high upside

Chase Elliott - Elliott been hit or miss in his career on superspeedways, but at Daytona it been a hit lately. In 4 of his last 5 races here at Daytona, he has compiled top 10 finishes. He is a great drafter and usually we will find him at the front. I think the downside to picking Elliott is almost everyone will be picking him as he is one of the most popular picks this weekend. With that said, if he wrecks then you are pretty safe as everyone else will go down as well. There is not much to really hate about Elliott this weekend. If you are in a limited start league, then I might pass on him, though as he holds more value in next 35 races. 

3 drivers I would avoid: 

Denny Hamlin - I am sure Hamlin will be a popular pick this weekend, but I am here to tell you that Hamlin is a great drafter and went on an amazing run for 3-4 years at these type of tracks, but lately it hasn't been a fun time with Hamlin. In 5 of his last 7 races, he has finished 13th or worse. In 4 of those races, he has finished 18th or worse. In that same span, he has only produced one top 5 finish. Over Denny's last 3 Daytona races in that span, he has finishes of 13th, 25th and 37th. He is an amazing talent and I think he is capable of winning this event, but personally I might just back off him this weekend with his recent trend of bad luck at these events

Brad Keselowski - Another big name driver that has kinda stunk up the stats sheets (terms of final finishes) and while final finishes isn't everything. It is something, as certain drivers has a knack for finding bad luck. Brad Keselowski is one of the most aggressive drivers in the series and that is a big problem because he is too aggressive sometimes. Would it surprise you that Brad only has 4 top 10 finishes in his last 20 races at either Daytona or Talladega? In 4 of his last 6 races overall has ended in 23rd or worse. In his last 7 races at Daytona, he has produced 4 finishes of 35th or worse. Not saying we will see Brad be in a big wreck, but the numbers say it is likely!

Joey Logano - Logano find himself in the thick of things very often, but he also find himself not finishing these events because he pushes the issues far too often. Need proof? In 11 of his last 12 races at superspeedway races, he has failed to finish in the top 10. He has just one top 10 finish and that was a 3rd at Talladega a few years ago. Going back to Daytona 2018, Joey has finished outside of the top 10 in 8 of 9 races. While 5 of those 9 races ended outside of the top 20 as well. There are better options this weekend!

Hopefully my thoughts are helpful with your picks today! Best of luck everyone!

Thanks for reading, 

Email - Garrybriggs265@gmail.com

Twitter - @Garryy12