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1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick has been a monster this season and has been a monster at Texas. In his last 11 starts at Texas, he has finished eight times in the top 4. And he is only getting better since the repave (in 2017)! In his last 5 starts at Texas, he has posted 4 top 2 finishes. Including 3 wins during those 5 starts! He has been something special here lately and the only race where he didn't finished in the top 2 was last spring. The SHR were a bit slower to start off the 2019 season, so I will give him a pass on that one. On 1.5 mile tracks in 2020, he has been one of the best in the series. On 1.5 mile tracks (excluding his one bad finish - Homestead), he has compiled a series-leading 5.8 average finish with 7.6 average running position (4th-best in series) and a series-best 111.8 driver rating. You probably didn't need any convincing, but Kevin Harvick should be near top of your list this weekend as a fantasy pick!
2. Martin Truex Jr - It's hard to bet against Truex Jr on any given weekend and Texas should be no difference. Whenever I think of Texas, I always think of 2013 and his great battle with Kyle Busch. That was epic battle and I always remember them two having the two best cars in the field, with Jeff Gordon consistently running 3rd all night long. If you never seen it, I would check it out on youtube. It's a very underrated race, in my honest opinion. As for the 2020 season, Truex Jr has been consistently been a threat on these 1.5 mile tracks overall. In his last 5 races on 1.5 mile tracks, he hasn't finished worse than 12th. In those races, he has compiled 6.6 average finish with 8.2 average running position and 107.6 driver rating. He ranked 3rd in both ARP and Driver Rating in the last 5 races on 1.5 mile tracks. In his last three races at Texas, he has finished 12th or better in every race. However, he hasn't finished better than 6th in any of those races and only led 10 laps (all in last spring's race).
3. Ryan Blaney - I try to rank Blaney a little lower in the rankings to give him some room for error, but it is starting to get disrespectful at this point. He has been the best driver on these intermediate tracks in the series and most stats in 2020 will back that up. He was lights out at Kentucky and that is the most similar track to Texas. In his last 5 starts at Texas, he finished four times in 8th or better. His only bad finish? Last spring's race, where he finished 37th. Prior to that, he was easily a top 5 car and led 45 laps before overheating. I don't think many people are sleeping on Ryan Blaney at this point, but he is a legit threat to win here at Texas this weekend!
4. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin wasn't as strong as everyone was expecting at Kentucky and honestly I was kinda low on him last weekend. I didn't think he was gonna be average as he was, but I also wasn't picking to be a top 5 pick. More of the season this weekend at Texas, as I am never really super high on Hamlin to begin with. He will have his awesome races and he will have his meh races. Then there's will be his races right in the middle and that what I am kinda expecting this weekend at Texas. He has been great here at Texas in the past, but he also has been inconsistent at times. Like this season, he has been boom or bust at Texas. In his last 6 races at Texas, he has finished in the top 3 twice. Including a win in last spring's race! Problem is? He has finished 25th or worse in the other 4 races.
5. Kyle Busch - After struggling at one of his best tracks, it is hard to be to high on Kyle Busch. Has been complete garbage? No, he has had some good runs in 2020. But if you look at his numbers, you would agree that he isn't an elite driver in 2020. And his numbers on these 1.5 mile tracks are down considerably as well. He's a former winner at Texas and swept the top 10. But I see a lot of double digit finishes from him since the repave. He won here back in 2018, but he also has finished 10th or worse in 4 of the last 6 races at this track. I am truthfully not very high on him, especially after being burned last weekend at Kentucky. For now, I think it is best to leave him alone for a few races and see how he does (from a fantasy point of view).
6. Chase Elliott - Elliott was a bit of a disappointment last weekend at Kentucky. He was very much a top 5 driver in the early stages of the event, but he struggled in second half of the race. He got sideways late on a restart and it was over for him. He was never able to recover. He put on fresh tires for a restart, but it didn't really matter that much. He finished a disappointing 23rd and was never more than 9th or 10th place driver in latter part of race, before dropping back on restarts. I am gonna assume that was just a bad race for him, as he has been one of the very best drivers in the series on the 1.5 mile tracks. He would be a very sneaky good fantasy pick this weekend, if you are looking to go against the other big-time names this weekend at Texas!
7. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski has been great at times during the 2020 season, but lately he just been another driver on the track. Not to say that he hasn't ran well during portions of events, but he hasn't been a standout driver, either. Like I say every week about him, I am never very high on him and isn't on my radar that much. He will probably be a top 10 driver, but there's too many better big-time names than Keselowski as a fantasy pick for me to consider him. He's a solid pick, if you are just looking for a good finish. I wouldn't expect the world from him, though.
8. Aric Almirola - Almirola is the pole sitter, but I am trying to give him some room for error this weekend at Texas. Last weekend at Kentucky, his streak of top 5 finishes came to a close. However, he was a top 5 driver for majority of the first two stages. He fell off in the three stages, but found a way to score a top 10 finish in the end. Now, he will head to a track that he swept the top 10 on last season. Aric has always been good at Texas and recently has stepped it up, too. In his last three starts, he has finished in the top 8 in all three races. Aric just simply a good top 10 fantasy pick this weekend with some upside. I think he will score his 7 straight top 10 finish this weekend. From a fantasy point of view, I think this is the best time to use him. I doubt we will see this kind of production last throughout the season. Take the points now or gamble that he can keep it long-time. History says it is unlikely for us to see Aric to keep producing at this level.
9. Joey Logano - Logano hasn't been great this season, since we returned to racing at Darlington. I spoke about all his declining production in recent weeks, so I won't go on rant on how he has been struggling. We know that already that he isn't a top fantasy pick right now. In 6 of his last 9 races this season (excludin the ASR - of course), he has finished 15th or worse. In lone three good finishes? 10th, 4th and 10th. That 4th place finish came at Martinsville, where he ended up leading 234 laps. Like I said, he has really struggled and this ranking is probably too high based on how he has finished lately. But I do believe in upside and Joey is in a top ride, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt at least. Plus he has been aweosme at Texas, since they repaved prior to the 2017 season here!
10. Kurt Busch - Since the repave, he has finished every race in the top 10. However, all of his finishes has been between 7th and 10th place. When we returned to racing, I feel like that when Kurt was at his best. In recent weeks, he has kinda declined. Even though, he had his best finish last weekend (5th) since May 28th at Charlotte and tied for 3rd-best finish of his season. I feel like between latter part of the top 10 and low-teens is where Kurt should be expected to finish this weekend at Texas and probably going forward. I don't believe that #1 car is fast enough to finish in the top 5 on pure speed and I think that was thinking headed into the season. This is not news for us, in my opinion.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FRCS.PRO
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
