2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Kyle Busch

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Kyle Busch overcome what many people thought was unthinkable after a hard Daytona crash. Busch was sidelined all the way to the all-star in mid-May. Not only Busch return to the racetrack, but he scored 4 wins before the chase started. And then ended the season with a Cup Series Championship. So the question is can he repeat in 2016? As a long time Kyle Busch fan, I think he definitely can and sure hope he does makes it back-to-back championships. However, as an analysis I think it unrealistic for Kyle to win the championship in 2016. Even though I believe he will come very close! I personally believe this current chase is setup to unintentionally not allow repeat champions in back to back seasons. In my opinion it quite difficult to repeat with how the chase set up now. There is a lot of luck involved. One bad race at the wrong time and you are history. As for 2016 as whole, I expect about 3-4 wins with about 15-22Top 5 finishes for Kyle.

Most like his JGR teammates, I think Kyle will be at his strongest on the intermediate racetracks. Kyle always have had the horsepower advantage and always seems to have something for the leaders before the checkers wave. I don't think 2016 will be any different! Last season on the intermediate racetracks (12 races), he compiled 12.5 average finish with 8.4 average running position and 109.2 driver rating. His best intermediate racetracks are Cali and Kentucky by far. Followed by Texas in third. I would consider Cali as his best racetrack honestly. He have made enough starts (with least 10 starts) there that I think it is his best intermediate racetrack by a large margin. He missed last season race, but he been very good there from a career standpoint. Last time he raced there, he went to victory lane. He have went to victory lane in his previous two races at Cali (2014 and 2013). In fact, he have knocked off 4 straight top 3 finishes at this track. I would consider Kentucky as Kyle very best racetrack on the schedule, however there only limited number of races there. So I will hold back a few years before making that claim. However his stats at Kentucky in just 5 races are extremely impressive. In 5 races, he have compiled 3.8  average finish with 4 Top 5 finishes. Including two wins. In those 5 races, he have knocked off 3 Top 2 finishes. Including in each of the past two seasons. Digging further into his stats, he have knocked off 3 straight Top 5 finishes, dating back to the 2013 season. His lone non-top 10 finish was back in 2012, where he finished 10th. He led 118 laps in that event. Kyle have led 118 or more laps in 3 of his 5 races at Kentucky. Yeah I would say he pretty damn good at Kentucky!

Short tracks will be a major strength for Kyle in 2016 and I fully expect him to a threat every time he is on the racetrack. Last season on the shorts (3 races), he compiled 5.0 average finish with 5.7 average running position and 117.7 driver rating. He missed half of the races in 2015, but he was very strong last season on the short tracks in the races he was apart of. I would consider Richmond as his best racetrack among the short tracks. Over the previous two seasons (3 races), he have compiled 6.3 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 101.6 driver rating. Last season in his lone start at Richmond, he finished 2nd to Matt Kenseth, who was simply dominated from drop of the green. Busch probably had one of the few cars who could do anything with him though. Busch have knocked off 2 top 3 finishes over his past previous 3 races. Even though he have finished 16th or worse in 4 of his previous 6 races overall. There reason to be positive about Busch at Richmond. He always been very good at Richmond and I think he will least sweep the top 10 in 2016. Dating back to the 2010 season (12 races), he have knocked off 8 Top 6 finishes. Including 6 Top 3 finishes, including those two top 3 finishes over his 3 previous races at the racetrack. In 21 career starts, he have compiled 14 Top 5 finishes and 15 Top 10 finishes. In 7 races he didn't finish inside the top 5, he only once finished better than 15th. So he basically top 5 or bust. More often than not, he is a top 5 finisher though.

His second best short track is Bristol, but he haven't performed up the standards we are use to lately though. Over his past 3 races at Bristol (2 seasons), he have compiled 24.3 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 98.4 driver rating. Last season at Bristol, he finished 8th in his alone start. In 2014, he had finishes of 36th and 29th. In spring of 2013, he finished 11th. Prior to those 4 races, he was very good. However majority of those races were held at ''old bristol'', so I don't think that is really relevant to discuss. Overall Busch have not gotten the finishes he have deserved at Bristol, however he ran very well last season here. He had a top 5 car for the event, but I believe he a penalty late in the race that cost him a lap. He was able to recover, but he never made it back to the event. Regardless, he was very strong for that entire event. I think he will rebound at Bristol in 2016 very nicely. He also have ran very well at Martinsville so far in his cup career. Over his past 3 races (2 seasons), he have compiled 10.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. Last season he finished 5th in his lone start at Martinsville. Overall he have knocked 6 straight Top 15 finishes, dating back to the 2012 season. Dating back to the 2010 season, he have knocked off 6 Top 5 finishes and 9 Top 15 finishes. He haven't been to victory lane yet at Martinsville, however he have found plenty of success here. I think it only matter of time before he breaks out and finds victory lane.

The short flats will be another strong area for Busch in 2016. I expect him to be strong at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last season on the shorter flats (3 races), he compiled 14.0 average finish with 10.7 average running position and 107.4 driver rating. Last season at New Hamsphire, he finished 37th 1st. In the July race, he started 4th and held off a hard charging Brad Keselowski for the win. In the September race, he was pretty good in that race. However he finished almost 40 laps down in 37th. Obviously he was better than 37th, but he got unlucky during that event. Over his past 4 New Hampshire races, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 107.3 driver rating. Overall he have knocked off 8 Top 11 finishes over his past 12 races. Including 4 Top 2 finishes over his past 6 races. Prior to finishing 37th place last September, he have knocked off 5 straight top 8 finishes. He is one of the best drivers in the series at New Hampshire and that shouldn't change in 2016! At Phoenix over the past 2 seasons (3 races), he have compiled 15.7 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 96.3 driver rating. Last season he finished 4th in his lone race last season. Overall he have knocked off 9 Top 13 finishes over his past 12 races. He always been good at Phoenix and I don't think that will change anything soon.

Road Courses always been a really good type racetrack for Busch, but I have felt like in the past that his Sonoma's track record have held him from being considered elite. In 2015, he changed that and returned to victory lane at Sonoma. He have found much more success at Watkins Glenn though. I don't think there many drivers who there with better track record than Kyle Busch have at Watkin Glenn. Only a select few have compiled better stats than him. Last season on the road courses (2 races), he compiled 1.5 average finish with 7.0 average running position and 121.1 driver rating. Last season he won at Sonoma, after strong late restart to hold on off older brother Kurt. Then at Watkin Glenn, Kyle couldn't quite catch Penske Driver Logano and had to finish 2nd. He is much better at Watkins Glenn, then he is at Sonoma. He always been a very strong driver at WGI. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 20.0 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. He finished 2nd last season and was one of the strongest drivers throughout the event. In 2014, he didn't have a very good race. He started off fairly strong, but then he had a problem on pit road. Followed by an incident with Martin Truex Jr which pretty much screwed any chance of him having a respectably day. Overall 5 of his previous 6 races (dating back to 2010), he have finished 8th or better in. Half (3) of those 6 races have ended inside the top 3. Including 2 of his past 3 races at WGI. He have found much less success at Sonoma, even though he finally broke out of his Sonoma slump. Over the past two seasons (2 races), he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 89.3 driver rating. He finished 1st last season at Sonoma, but that was his first top 10 finish since his JGR road course debut in 2008 at Sonoma. Since he have only had one top 15 (2011), where he finished 11th. Otherwise, he have compiled 5 finishes of 17th or worse. 4 of those 5 races have ended in 22nd or worse. Hard to say which direction Busch is going at Sonoma, but hopefully it the right one with his 2nd win at the track recently.

Large flats will be solid spot for Busch in 2016, but I wouldn't bank on it to be a sure thing though. More so at Pocono, since he seems to be a bit inconsistent there at times. Last season at the larger flats (3 races), he compiled 10.3 average finish with 6.7 average running position and 108.9 driver rating. He won at Indy last season and finished 9th in the first Pocono race. He finished 21st in the second Pocono, after leading 21 laps early in the event. He been stronger at Indy than Pocono for awhile. Over his past 2 races at Indy (2 seasons), he have compiled 1.5 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 124.1 driver rating. Last season he went to victory lane and in 2014 he finished 2nd. I think it was only matter of time before Kyle found victory lane, after finishing 2nd in 2014 and sure enough he did in 2015. He been very good here for while now though. He have knocked off 6 straight top 10 finishes. Including 3 Top 2 finishes over his past 4 starts. Overall he have knocked off 10 Top 15 finishes in 11 races and 9 of those 10 Top 15 finishes have ended inside the top 10. Busch is one of the most underrated drivers in the series at Indy and I think he will only get better as he races more here! He haven't been so lucky at Pocono. He been alright at Pocono, but I wouldn't call it a walk in a park. He have gotten some quality finishes, but he seems to mix them with some poor finishes as well. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 81.2 driver rating. Over his past 12 Pocono races, he have compiled 6 Top 6 finishes and 5 finishes of  21st or worse. Including 2 of his past 3 races ending in 21st or worse (21st and 42nd). Like I mentioned earlier, he can be a bit inconsistent at Pocono. I would much rather use him at Indy than Pocono.

The plates aren't exactly what I would consider a strong spot for Kyle Busch. He definitely have the equipment to run well, but he often have found himself with a poor finish at both Daytona and Talladega. He been a bit better at Talladega than Daytona though. Over his past 3 races at Daytona (2 seasons), he have compiled 21.3 average finish with 21.3 average running position and 78.1 driver rating. At the moment, Kyle is in a pretty sizable slump at Daytona. He have gone 7 straight races (points paying) without an top 10 finish. His last top 10 finish was all the way back in 2011, when he sweep the top 10 that season. Prior finishing 8th and 5th in 2011, he last top 10 finishes were in 2008 when he swept the top 5 (1st, 5th). He been much better at Talladega than Daytona in terms of final finishing position . Over the past 3 races at Talladega (2 seasons), he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 21.0 average running position and 75.8 driver rating. That don't look too impressive, actually almost exactly the same as his Daytona's performance. Only difference is, he have 3 Top 12 finishes over his past 4 Talladega races. What really hurts his stats are at the 2014 October races where he finished 40th. Overall he have knocked off 5 Top 12 finishes over his past 7 races, dating back to the 2012 season. Over his past 11 races at Talladega, he have knocked off 6 Top 12 finishes. So overall he been pretty respectable, especially more recently. It hard to judge at driver at the plates in my opinion, I think it one of the most difficult things to do. There so much luck involved, honestly it probably better to not overanalyze past data. However I would probably avoid Kyle at Daytona, considering he is in a slump lately there with no top 10s since 2011.

Twitter - @JeffNathans

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Martin Truex Jr

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Martin Truex Jr and the 78 team was bad fast all of last season, as they made the chase with winning at Pocono. In 2016, they are switching over from Chevy to Toyota. Now while, I do believe this team won't miss much from 2015 to 2016. I do have concerns with them switching over from one brand to another. There shouldn't be any problems for Truex, but there always that little voice of doubt in back of the mind that says he will have a struggling start. Will that happen? I don't know. Will Truex return to victory lane for the second straight season for the first time in his career? Who knows really, if they unload like they did in 2015, then I would put my money on them winning a few races in 2016.

I expect Truex strongest area to be the intermediate racetracks in 2016. Last season on the intermediate racetracks (17 races), he supported 8.2 average finish with 7.3 average running position and 108.6 driver rating. He had very few poor finishes at the intermediate racetracks last season. His worst three finishes were 17th (Kentucky), 15th (Kansas - 2nd race) and 13th (Chicago). All rest of his races ended up inside the top 12. In fact 12 of those 17 races at the intermediate racetracks ended inside the top 10. Including 9 of his first 10 ending inside the top 9. His numbers fell off once we hit the chase though. Still very impressive season by the 78 team. His best tracks are Homestead, Dover and Darlington probably off top of my head. I consider Homestead as his best racetrack. Last season, he had easy top 10 speed. However his team couldn't get the handling right on his car at end of the race, so he had to finish 12th place. Dover is also a very good racetrack for him. Especially more recently. Top 15 in 5 straight Dover races. Including 4 straight top 11 finishes with the 78 team. If we go back further, I would say Dover is Martin's best racetrack. Over his previous 8 races (dating back to 2012), he have reeled off 5 Top 7 finishes. Overall 6 Top 11 finishes and total of 7 top 15 finishes. His lone non-top 15 was in 2013, where he blew an engine. Even though he had a bad fast car in that race. He have finished inside the top 10 in nearly half (9) of his 20 career starts. He have finished 14 of his 20 career races inside the top 20. Darlington is a tough place to judge a driver at, since we only go to this track once per season. He haven't blown us away with top 10 finishes (4), but his 9 Top 20 in 10 career races screams consistency. Yeah I know that isn't a ''wow'' factor stat. But let look deeper into those numbers. He finished 9th last season. 6 of his 10 career races have ended inside the top 12. 8 of his 10 career races ended inside the top 14. Yeah that's pretty good, I would say!

He also been pretty good on the short flat racetracks of Phoenix and New Hampshire. I expect him to run well at both tracks in 2016. Last season at short flat racetracks (4 races), he supported 10.3 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 95.9 driver rating. He was pretty much equal at both venues last season. Even though I personally think he was a little better at Phoenix than New Hampshire though. Over the previous 4 Phoenix races (2 seasons), he have supported 13.8 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 89.6 driver rating. He have reeled off 3 straight Top 14 finishes heading into the 2016 season at Phoenix. Overall, he have reeled off 5 Top 14 finishes over his previous 8 races. Including 3 Top 8 finishes, with his most recent top 8 finish coming in last spring race. Looking deeper into his stats, he have knocked off 9 Top 20 finishes over his previous 12 races at Phoenix. With 7 of those 9 Top 20, ending inside the top 15. He been just as good at New Hampshire in my opinion. Over his past 4 New Hampshire races (2 seasons), he have supported 11.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 12th and 8th. In 2014, he finished 12th in both races. Overall he have 5 straight top 12 finishes dating back to the 2013 season. Digging deeper into his New Hampshire stats, he have reeled off 11 Top 20 finishes in his previous 12 races. Including 7 of his previous 10 races ending inside the top 12. Overall he been pretty solid at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. I would say they are pretty equal in terms of comparable. He have had a better average finish at New Hampshire lately, but he have performed a bit better at Phoenix though. When looking deeper into the stats, he been very consistent at both racetracks.

Road course will definitely be a strong point for Truex in 2016. Truex in my opinion is one of the most overlooked drivers on the road courses. He spent a good amount of time with MWR and teammates with road course ace Clint Bowyer. That what I think helped him a lot too. Now look at him, a pretty successful road course driver himself. He is pretty good at both venues. Last season on the road courses, he supported 33.5 average finish with 22.5 average running position and 74.8 driver rating. Those were very terrible stats for Truex at the road courses in 2015. Simply put, he had a lot of bad luck on the road courses last season. At Sonoma, he got wrecked by David Ragan and finished 42nd. At WGI, he ran out of fuel and had to settle for an 25th-place finish. Despite having a strong near top 5 car most of the event. He been better at WGI than Sonoma in career though. Over the past 2 seasons (2 races) at WGI, he have supported 19.0 average finish with 15.5 average running position and 83.1 driver rating. He finished 25th in 2015 and finished 13th in 2014. Overall, prior to finishing 25th in 2015, he had reeled off 5 straight top 15 finishes. Including 3 Top 10 finishes from 2011 to 2014. If we go back further, he have knocked off 7 top 10 finishes in 10 career starts. Including 5 of his previous 8 races (minus his most recent race in 2015 and his debut in 2006) have ended inside the top 10. Over the past 2 seasons at Sonoma (2 races), he have supported 28.5 average finish with 26.5 average running position and 70.3 driver rating. He had finishes of 42nd and 15th over the past two season. Prior to finishing 42nd last season, he had finished 15th or better in 3 of his previous 4 races dating back to the 2011 season. He haven't found much success at Sonoma like he have at Watkins Glenn though.

Short tracks will be a okay spot for Truex in 2016, but I don't think he will be overly strong at it like some of the tracks I have mentioned like the intermediates and road courses. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he supported 18.5 average finish with 16.7 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. He haven't been that good at any of the short tracks honestly, but I would say his best short track is probably Martinsville though. Over the previous 4 Martinsville races (2 seasons), he have supported 17.8 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 77.2 driver rating. Despite unimpressive numbers from a overall standpoint, he does have 2 Top 10 finishes over his previous 4 races at Martinsville. Those 2 Top 10 finishes both came last season though. He finished 6th in both races in 2015 at Martinsville. Looking deeper into the data pool, Truex have struggled at Martinsville. only 5 Top 20 finishes over his previous 10 races, even though 4 of those were top 10 finishes. Still pretty unimpressive. But Truex isn't exactly the greatest short track racer either. His second best short track is probably Richmond recently. Over his previous 4 Richmond races, he have supported 19.3 average finish with 20.3 average running position and 75.2 driver rating. Over those 4 races, he have knocked off 2 Top 10 finishes and one of them came last spring (2015). Overall he have reeled off 3 Top 10 finishes over his previous 5 Richmond races. Including 4 Top 20 finishes over his previous 6 Richmond races. So he haven't been bad, but his best finish have been 10th (twice). His worst short track most recently (which is probably saying something) is Bristol. Folks Bristol have not been very kind to Mr. Truex. Over his previous 4 Bristol races, he have supported 28.3 average finish with 20.8 average running position and 67.3 driver rating. His best finish is 20th and remains his lone top 25 finish over the previous two seasons. Truex have found success in the past, especially with his time with MWR. He actually reeled off 7 Top 20 finishes in 8 races (4 seasons), when he was still in the 56 car. Including 5 Top 12 finishes. So not like he cannot finish well at Bristol, it just he haven't yet with the 78 team. Honestly my best piece of advice for all of you is just avoid Truex on the short tracks. Outside of Daytona, these are his three worst racetracks from a career average finish point of view. He have shown the potential the past two seasons, but I just don't see the upside with him. Especially since he runs so well at so many other racetracks.

Restrictor Plates will be a fairly weak type of racetrack for Truex in 2016 and quite frankly he have not never been a strong plate racer, but a respectably one though. By no means is he a Dale Earnhardt Jr or anything. But he can be effective, if he finishes with his car all in one piece. Last season on the restrictor plates (4 races), he supported 14.5 average finish with 17.5 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. He been better at Talladega than Daytona most recently. Over the previous 4 races at Daytona, he have supported 26.0 average finish with 23.8 average running position and 68.0 driver rating. Last season at Daytona, he posted finishes of 38th and 8th. In 2014, he had finishes of 43rd and 15th. Prior to finishing 8th last season, his last and only other top 10 finish was back in 2010. In 21 career races at Daytona (points paying), he have only managed 2 Top 10 finishes and 11 Top 20 finishes. This is his worst racetrack in terms of average finish (23.2). He have been better at Talladega most recently and from a career stand point. Over his previous 4 Talladega races, he have supported 14.0 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 82.8 driver rating. Last season he posted finishes of 7th and 5th. In 2014, he had finishes of 27th and 17th. He been very consistent over the past 6 seasons (12 races). Over his previous 12 races at Talladega, he have reeled off 9 Top 13 finishes. Including 5 Top 10 finishes. 4 of his previous 6 Talladega races have neded inside the top 8.

Truex was very good last season on the large flat racetracks and I think he can continue that trend in 2016. Last season on the large flat racetracks, he supported 8.0 average finish with 7.3 average running position and 118.3 driver rating. He was very good at Pocono last season and even went to victory. Over the previous 4 Pocono races, he have supported 15.3 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 99.9 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, he had finishes of 19th and 1st. He won the June race. And was very strong in the August race, but something happened to him late in the race, that cost him a solid finish though. Over his previous 12 Pocono races, he have reeled off 7 Top 15 finishes. 3 of his previous 5 races have ended inside the top 15. Including 2 Top 9 finishes over the past two seasons. Truex does not have staggering numbers at Pocono, but he have performed very here recently. So there a lot of hope for Truex at the large flat racetrack of Pocono. He been pretty good recently at Indy as well. Over the past 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 14.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 85.1 driver rating. Last season he was very strong here and finished an impressive 4th place when the checkers waved. In that race, he had about 6th to 8th place car for most of the event, if I recall correctly. Late caution allowed him to gain a few extra positions before the checkers waved though. He have found plenty of success lately at Indy. 3 of his previous 4 races, he have ended inside the top 11.

Twitter - @MattAleza

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Jimmie Johnson

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Jimmie Johnson enters the 2016 season as one of the titles favorites, but honestly it feels like a lifetime since Jimmie Johnson have been in the championship conversation. These last few season have seen Johnson jump out to a fast start to only stumble into deep slump as the chase approaches. And for reason unlike years past, he cannot break out of them during the chase. Will 2016? I don't think so. I expect Johnson to jump out to a fast start and then cool down as we hit second half of the season. This have re-occurred a few times now, so it no longer a fluke. It a trend.

His strongest type racetrack in 2016 will likely be the intermediate racetracks. Last season at intermediate racetracks, he compiled 16.7 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 98.9 driver rating. Johnson either wrecked out or finished inside the top 5 in 11 of the 17 intermediate racetracks in 2015. He won 5 times in 2015 and all of them came at the intermediate racetracks. One of his best intermediate racetrack is Texas, even though he is super bipolar there. He have 6 times at Texas and 5 of those wins have came in the fall race. Including 4 straight wins in the fall. Yeah he is a stud there in the fall. Over his past 4 races at Texas, he have compiled 7.0 average finish, 8.0 average running position, 10.0 average running position and 114.9 driver rating. Overall he have won 5 of the previous 7 Texas races. He have finished 9th or better in 10 of the past 12 Texas races. Including 7 Top 2 finishes in that span. In his past 12 Texas races, he have compiled 5.9 average finish (series-best), 7.6 average start (series-best), 7.7 average running position (series-best) and 117.9 driver rating (series-best). Aside from that, he also leads the series in top 5 finishes (7) and top 10 finishes (10). It pretty good to be Jimmie Johnson at Texas. I would consider Cali to be one of his best racetracks on the schedule. His career numbers are overly impressive here. He also been pretty solid recently as well. Over his past two races at Cali, he have compiled 16.5 average finish, 8.5 average start, 5.5 average running position and 117.2 driver rating. He finished 9th last season. He was dominated in 2014 and was by far the class of the field. However you recall that was that screwy goodyear fail race where everyone kept blowing tires. Johnson was a victim late in the race and cost it a easy win. He eventually finished 24th. That is his worse finish ever at Cali. His next worse finish? 16th (twice - 2003 & 2005). Overall he have knocked off 11 Top 9 finishes over his past 13 races at Cali. Including 8 Top 3 finishes from 2007 to 2011 seasons (9 races). Since? He have 3 finishes from 9th-12th place (4 races). Then he had that one poor finish in 2014, but he pretty dominated that day, so hard to go against him at Cali. He may not finish up in the top 5 each race here, but he will have a major threat to cause damage. Honestly his best intermediate racetrack actually could be Dover, considering he have 10 wins there. But most of you knew that already. He also will run well at Charlotte (wrecked out in both races last season), Kansas, Chicago, Atlanta and Las Vegas.

Short tracks will be a  major strength for Jimmie Johnson in 2016. Last season at the shorts (Martinsville, Bristol and Richmond), he compiled 10.8 average finish, 18.2 average start, 13.3 average running position and 93.8 driver rating. Among the three shorts, he probably best at Martinsville. However his numbers have been down these past few seasons. Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 20.3 average finish, 9.3 average start, 18.0 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. Last season he finished 12th and 35th. In the spring race, he got wrecked in the early part of the race and then his race just went south from there. Prior to that he finished 32nd in fall 2014. Another Martinsville race, where bad ruined his chances at a decent finishing position. Prior to those poor 35th and 32nd place finishes, he only have once finished outside of the top 12 and that was in his debut back in 2002. Johnson have been nearly unmatchable at a track that he have dominated since the 2004 season. Only a select few can be put in a class with Jimmie Johnson at Martinsville. In 28 races, he have 10 wins with 18 Top 5 finishes and 25 Top 12 finishes. More recently he also been pretty good. 5 of the previous 7 races have ended inside the top 12. Including 4 top 5 finishes since the 2012 season. He had 4 straight top 5 finishes prior to his recent finish slump at Martinsville. I expect him to get back on track in 2016 and I believe will get back in the win column or least the top 5 column.

His second best short track is probably Bristol. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 7.3 average finish, 13.8 average start, 13.5 average running position and 98.5 driver rating. He was very good here last season, as he had finishes of 4th and 2nd. He in fact have 3 straight top 4 finishes dating back to the 2014 season. 4 of his previous 7 races (dating back to 2012) have ended inside the top 4. Overall 6 of his previous 10 Bristol races have ended inside the top 4. Yeah he been pretty good at Bristol recently. He been probably at his worst at Richmond among the short tracks. Over the past 4 races at Richmond, he have compiled 13.0 average finish, 14.5 average start, 10.3 average running position and 97.7 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 9th and 3rd. He have knocked off 3 straight top 9 finishes, dating back to the 2014 season. 6 of his past 8 races have ended inside the top 13. Overall 9 of his past 12 races at Richmond have ended inside the top 12. Including 7 of his past 12 Richmond races ending inside the top 10.

Road courses will be a strong spot for Jimmie Johnson in 2016. Over the past two season at Sonoma, he have compiled 6.5 average finish, 17.5 average start, 6.0 average running position and 117.7 driver rating. He finished 6th last season, even though he had the best car for most of the race and led 45 laps. A late caution occurred and Jimmie Johnson couldn't hold off a hard charging Kyle Busch and after that he just faded through the field to 6th when the checkers waved. In 2014, he finished 7th. He have knocked off 7 straight top 9 finishes, dating back to the 2009 season. 8 of his previous 10 Sonoma races have ended inside the top 10, including a win back in the 2010 season. He been just as at Watkins Glenn. Over his past 4 races at WGI, he have compiled 19.0 average finish, 6.0 average start, 14.0 average running position and 88.5 driver rating. He finished 10th last season and 28th in 2014. He have finished 4 of his past 5 races at WGI inside the top 10. Overall he have finished 7 of his past 9 races inside the top 12. Including 6 of those 9 races ending inside the top 10. So overall yeah Johnson been pretty successful at the road courses and I expect him to continue that success in 2016. Among Nascar elite drivers, I would consider him the most underrated road course racer in the series. He should be least good for top 10 finishes at both Sonoma and Watkin Glenn. More than likely, he will contend for a top 5 finish at least one of these road courses.

Shorter flats tracks aren't exactly Johnson's strongest area, but he certainly can be effective fantasy option when he needs to be. I expect him to be decent in 2016, but he will be better at the type tracks listed above though. Even though he was good last season at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. Just not what he once was though. Last season at shorter flats tracks, he compiled 11.0 average finish, 8.3 average start, 13.3 average running position and 94.9 driver rating. He been better at Phoenix than New Hampshire though. Over the past 4 races at Phoenix, he have compiled 15.3 average finish, 10.0 average start, 11.8 average running position and 94.2 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 5th and 11th. In fact he been very consistent here over the years. 5 of the previous 6 races at Phoenix have ended inside the top 11. Including 4 Top 6 finishes and 3 of those top 6 finishes have translated into top 5 finishes. Prior to the recent repave, he was dominated at this racetrack. He knocked off 10 straight top 5 finishes with 4 wins in that 10 race span from 2006 to 2011 seasons. He since have came back down to earth, but as we put more laps in at Phoenix, I believe the Johnson of old will resurface. He have found just much of success at New Hampshire, even though he have a few bad finishes lately that misleads. Over the past 4 races at New Hampshire, he have compiled 18.8 average finish, 5.0 average start, 19.5 average running position and 80.2 driver rating. Truthfully his numbers are much better than that. However in July 2014, he wrecked within the first 10 laps and finished 42nd. Excluding that race, he have compiled 11.0 average finish, 6.0 average start, 12.7 average running position and 95.1 driver rating. Over 8 of his past 12 New Hampshire races have ended inside the top 7. Including 6 of his past 8 races, dating back to the 2012 season. His best finish was 2nd in September 2012. In 28 career races at New Hampshire, Johnson have an stout 10.4 average finish,  3 wins, 10 Top 5 finishes and 19 Top 10 finishes. He almost a lock to finish inside the top 10 when he have trouble free races. Usually he will least contend for a top 10 finish. I expect no different in 2016!

Jimmie Johnson is probably the most underrated plate racer in Nascar, and believe me when I say that! He is very good and have proven to be one of the most reliable fantasy option out there at times. Last season on the plates (4 races), he compiled 6.8 average finish, 5.5 average start, 6.3 average running position and 108.7 driver rating. He been better recently at Daytona than Talladega. Over the past 4 races, he have compiled 13.5 average finish, 12.8 average start, 15.0 average running position and 91.5 driver rating. He finished 2nd and 5th last season at Daytona. He finished 5th in the 2014 Daytona 500 as well. He got involved in a early wreck in 2014 summer race though and finished 42nd. In 2013, he won at both Daytona races (season sweep). Over the past 6 Daytona races, he have posted the top 5s (5) and tied with Dale Jr for the most top 10s (5). Only different between the two is Jimmie have had an DNF and Dale have not. Otherwise they been pretty much dead even since 2013 across the board in overall performance. At Talladega, he been more of a hit or miss type driver. Over the past 4 races at Talladega, he have compiled 16.8 average finish, 7.5 average start, 6.8 average running position and 109.0 driver rating. He finished 18th and 2nd last season. Last fall I believe he got into Kyle Larson late in the race on a restart and that alter his final finishing position. In 2014, he didn't get a good finish in either race. He had finishes of 24th and 23rd. In 2013, he had finishes of 13th and 5th. So overeall at Talladega, he been so and so. Some good finishes and some poor finishes. Even though he almost always have a strong car at Talladega.

Larger flats should be a solid spot for Jimmie Johnson in 2016. Last season on the larger flats (3 races), he compiled 11.0 average finish, 8.0 average finish, 11.7 average running position and 101.7 driver rating. He been better at Indy than Pocono recently, but both are very good tracks for him throughout his career. Over the past 2 races at Indy, he have compiled 14.5 average finish, 11.5 average start, 12.5 average running position and 91.5 driver rating. He finished 15th and 14th over the past two seasons. Prior to 2014, he have finished 1st or 2nd in his past 5 of 8 races at Indy(dating back to the 2006 season). He been pretty good throughout his career at Pocono and should be strong there once again in 2016. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 13.5 average finish, 14.5 average start, 14.5 average running position and 96.2 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, Johnson posted finishes of 6th and 3rd. He finished 39th in August 2014, but finished 6th in June 2014. Overall he have finished 9 of his past 12 Pocono races inside the top 10. Including 4 of his past 6 races ending inside the top 6. He won at Pocono most recently in June 2013.

I like wrapping up my previews with a little summary of what I stated above. I think that is very important to do, as I understand these stats can become very confusing. Anyhow with Johnson in 2016, I expect him to be a major player this upcoming season. I think he will knock off somewhere from 3 to 5 wins and make the chase once again. I expect a majority of those wins to occur on the intermediate racetracks and short tracks. He will also perform very well at the road courses and Daytona. As well as the flats of Pocono, Phoenix, New Hampshire and Indy. However he haven't gone to victory lane at any of those tracks since the 2013 season. Overall Jimmie Johnson is one of the best all-around drivers in the series, he doesn't have an weakness. He just have weak strong points. Which isn't anything to complain about, if you are Jimmie Johnson.

*All stats from DriverAverages and FantasyRacingCheetSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Kurt Busch

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Heading into the 2015 season, I felt like Kurt Busch was going to be in for a monster season with Tony Gibson as his crew chief and I was right about it too. Despite missing the first 3 races (through Las Vegas), he still was one of the best drivers on a weekly basis starting at Phoenix. He wasn't quite as good as teammate Kevin Harvick, but still performed like a top 5 driver most race weekends. In 2016, I expect Busch to continue his strong success with SHR. Long as Tony Gibson is crew  chief and SHR have speed, I believe Kurt will be a threat to run and finish up front.

The intermediate racetracks will be one of his strong suits in 2016! Last season he was pretty strong overall on 17 intermediate racetracks, he supported 9.9 average finish (5th-best in series) with 8.0 average running position and 107.8 driver rating. More often than not, Kurt Busch finished inside the top 10. Even though he often had a top 5 quality car. I thought his big problem was finishing out races. To me, he never could finish consistency up inside the top 5, even though he had the speed to. Out of Dover (finished 31st and 17th), he didn't really have any bad races in 2015. But most of his finishes were in the 7th-14th place range. His best racetracks among the intermediate racetracks would be Cali (best racetrack IMO), Texas, Chicago and Kentucky. I would say Cali and Texas are his best racetracks. Followed by Chicago and Kentucky. We only visit Chicago and Kentucky once per season though. I would say Cali is his best racetrack by far and quite frankly it not very close either.

Kurt Busch is a good driver on the flat short racetracks and he should perform decently in 2016. Last season on the short flat racetracks (4 races), he supported 10.3 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. He been better at Phoenix than New Hampshire though. Over the previous 2 seasons at Phoenix (minus spring 2014 race - engine issue), he have supported 6.3 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 108.7 driver rating. In that 3 race span, he have finished inside the top 7 in every race. He finished 39th in his debut with SHR in spring 2014, but he blew his engine. I also feel like he was still getting use to his new team at that point. Overall 10 of his previous 15 races at Phoenix have ended inside the top 10. Including 5 of his previous 7 races at Phoenix have ended inside the top 8. Phoenix is considered one of Kurt's best racetracks. And that won't  change in 2016 either. He been worse at New Hampshire recently though. Over his previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 20.5 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 84.7 driver rating. New Hampshire isn't really a great track for him like Phoenix have been. He been alright, but a good day for him is usually somewhere in the teens. Even though he recently he had fast cars at New Hampshire. But to only receive misleading finishes. Over the past 3 races at New Hampshire (minus September 2014 - finished 36th; many laps down due to in-race issue), he have supported 15.3 average running position with 10.3 average running position and 103.3 driver rating. Over his previous 11 races (dating back to 2010), he have finished between 10th-19th place in 6 of those 11 races. He best finish is 10th twice in fact. Prior to that when he was still with Pesnke, he reeled off 5 straight top 6 finishes from June 2008 to June 2010. Since he really haven't gotten any off-the chart finishes. Overall you can expect Kurt to run strongly at times at New Hampshire, but history says he won't finish any better than 10th-19th place range. What's challenging about New Hampshire is, it is a track-position venue. Track position is key. If you get mired in mid-pack on a late restart, then you are pretty much screwed. Very tough to predict.

Road Courses will be among his strongest track racetracks in 2016. He always been a strong road course racer and that won't change anytime soon. Over the previous two seasons (2 races), he have supported 7.0 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 116.4 driver rating. He finished 2nd last season and 12th in 2014. Even though he was running inside the top 5, before Bowyer spun out and he got caught up in it. Overall he have reeled off 5 straight top 12 finishes dating back to the 2011 season. Including 4 Top 4 finishes in those 5 races. He been equally as good at Watkin Glenn. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 4.0 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 106.9 driver rating. Last season he finished 5th and 3rd in 2014. Prior to that he finished 9th place in 2013. Overall he have reeled off 7 Top 11 finishes in his previous 9 attempts. Including 5 Top 9 finishes over his previous 7 races, dating back to 2009 season. 3 of his previous top 9 finishes have ended inside the top 5. Overall the previous two seasons (4 races) at road courses, he have supported 5.5 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 111.6 driver rating. He have the best average finish in the series during that span. He also have the most top 5 finishes (3), the best average running position (8.8) and the best driver rating (111.6) in the series.

Short Tracks should be a okay type racetrack for short tracks venues in 2016. Last season at short tracks (6 races - Martinsville, Richmond and Bristol), he have supported 15.5 average finish with 8.2 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. At Richmond, he supported 11.5 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 103.4 driver rating. Kurt Busch dominated at Richmond last spring, while leading 291 laps and won. He have finished inside the top 15 in three straight races at Richmond. Overall he have finished 5 of the previous 6 races inside the top 15. Including 4 top 9 finishes in previous 6 races. Going deeper into the data pool, he have finished 11 of the previous 18 races at Richmond inside the top 15. Including 9 Top 10 finishes in that 18 race span, dating back to the 2007 season. Obviously only 4 to 6 of the previous Richmond races are relevant, but it still good to look deeper into his career stats. He been pretty solid here over the years. That won't change in 2016 in my opinion. Kurt Busch was very at old Bristol, but haven't yet found his footing with new Bristol though. Over the previous 4 races at Bristol, he have supported 17.3 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 96.0 driver rating. Obvious his performance isn't the problem as he have ran competitively almost each time he have visited this track. His final finish position is the issue. Over the previous 6 races, he have finished inside the top 15 in 4 of those 6 races. Including two top 5 finishes in that span of 4th (March 2013 and August 2014). He also have led in 4 of those 6 races. He led the most laps in spring 2015 (last season) race, where he led 98 laps to an 15th-place finish. Noticeably he got involved in a wreck late and finished a lap down. Martinsville isn't a great track for Kurt, even though it not a terrible track for him either. However it not one that I would recommend you using him at though. Over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 21.3 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. Now he haven't been recently, but always seems to find bad luck at Martinsville that prevents him from getting a deserving finish. Minus his lone Martinsville win in spring 2014 (he got in a wreck on pit road with Brad Keselowski by the way), he have not finished inside the top 10 since 2005. No that is no mistake. Even though he have reeled off 10 finishes between 11th-18th.

Big flats tracks should be a strength for Kurt Busch during the 2016 season. Last season on the big flats (3 races), he have supported 16.7 average finish with 15.7 average running position and 99.9 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, he have supported 21.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 104.0 driver rating. He finished 37th and 5th. Doing deeper into his Pocono data over the previous 4 races, he have supported 14.5 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 110.1 driver rating. Outside of his 37th place finish, he have reeled off 5 straight top 13 finishes. Overall he have knocked off 6 Top 7 finishes over his previous 8 races, dating back to the 2011 season. Digging deeper into the data pool, he have reeled off 13 Top 9 finishes over his previous 20 races, dating back to the 2005 season. He haven't been quite so lucky at Indy though. Over his previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 18.0 average finish with 19.5 average running position and 80.7 driver rating. He finished 8th last season and 28th in 2014. Overall he only have 5 Top 14 finishes in his previous 10 races dating back to the 2006 season. Over his previous 5 races (dating back to the 2011 season), he have supported 21.4 average finish with 17..4 average running position and 80.9 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he have finished 21st or worse in 3 of those 5 races. His lone decent finishes are 14th (2013) and 8th (2015 - last season).

Kurt Busch is a very underrated plate racer. I consider him the best plate racer to never win a points paying plate race. He never get enough respect, because he usually isn't the first guy that people think of at the plate venues. Last season at Daytona and Talladega, he have supported 9.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 84.8 driver rating. He been pretty good at Daytona and Talladega. Over the previous 3 races (2 seasons) at Daytona, he have supported 9.7 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 98.2 driver rating. Overall 6 of his previous 10 races have ended inside the top 14. 5 of those 6 races have ended inside the top 10. 4 of those 5 races ended inside the top 6. He have found same deal of success at Talladega, but at a less higher rate up front. However he have been more consistent with his top 20 finishes though. Over his previous 4 races at Talladega, he have supported 15.5 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 90.9 driver rating. He have reeled off 3 straight Top 12 finishes at Talladega. 5 of the previous 8 races have ended in 20th or better.

Twitter - @MattAleza

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Brad Keselowski

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Brad Keselowski took a step back in 2015 and many people thought he had a disappointing season, even though he was posted a better average finish (11.0) than 2014's 12.6. However he posted less wins (1) and top 5 finishes (9) in 2015. Even though he posted 5 more top 10 finishes. So while his top 10 finishes were more consistent, he lost his upside which made him such a desirable fantasy option. In 2016, I expect him to remain consistent but with more upside though. I think both Penske and JGR will be strong with this 2016 race package, so I fully expect Keselowski to be least a top 10 contender every week.

He will likely be his strongest and most consistent at the intermediate racetracks. Especially the 1.5 milers. Last season on 17 races at intermediate racetracks, he supported 6.9 average finish with 8.4 average running position and 107.3 driver rating. He three times did Brad Keselowski finish outside of the top 10 and for those that are wondering he dominated the Darlington race, while leading 196 laps. That was one of the races that Nascar used the downforce package at. He was very strong on the 1.5 mile racetracks in 2015. He supported 6.5 average finish with 7.8 average running position. He finished 9th or better in all 11 races. Even though he only finished inside the top 5 in 3 races. Those three races were Kentucky, Texas and Homestead. He had the car to beat at Kentucky all weekend long, but he kept getting penalties and kept losing his track position on pit road. He dominated Texas as he led 312 laps from the pole. He was leading with a few laps ago and got passed by Johnson. He also was very strong at Homestead as he finished 3rd after leading a race-high 86 laps. His best tracks would be Kentucky, Texas, Las Vegas, and Chicago.

Keselowski also should be pretty strong on the short flat racetracks of Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last season on the short flat racetracks, he supported 7.3 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 113.9 driver rating. He been really strong at both venues. I would call New Hampshire his better track, but not by much though. Over the preview 2 seasons (4 races) at New Hampshire, he have supported a series-best 5.5 average finish with series-best 4.8 average running position and series-best 125.3 driver rating. He have been stout here recently no doubt, but he always been very strong at New Hampshire. He have finished 12th or better in 9 straight New Hampshire races, dating back to the 2011 season. Overall he have reeled off 10 finishes of 12th or better in 13 career races. Including 7 Top 6 finishes and 4 of those 7 races have ended inside the top 4. Including 2 Top 2 finishes in his previous 3 races prior to last September's 12th place effort. He will be just as strong at Phoenix and have been in recent seasons. Over the previous 4 races at Phoenix (2 seasons), he have supported 5.5 average finish with 6.3 average running position and 111.8 driver rating. Last season he posted finishes of 9th and 6th. He have reeled off 8 straight top 11 finishes. Including 4 straight top 9 finishes and 6 Top 6 finishes over his previous 7 races, prior to finishing 9th last November. Overall on the short flat racetracks, he have reeled off 16 straight Top 12 finishes at Phoenix and New Hampshire. In those 16 races, he have an series-best 6.0 average finish with 6.8 average running position (2nd to Harvick's 6.1 ARP) and 113.5 driver rating (2nd to Harvick's 120 DR). He also leads the series in top 10 finishes (13), Top 15 finishes (16), Top 20 finishes (16) and 2nd in Top 5 finishes (8 - 2nd only to Harvick's 9 Top 5s). His last non-top 12? All the way back in November of 2011! He basically a machine on this type racetrack.

Short tracks will be another type of venue that he will be strong on in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (Martinsville, Richmond and Bristol) , he supported 16.7 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 95.9 driver rating. By looking at the numbers, you would probably say this is a weak type racetrack for him, right? Well that false. He had a lot of bad luck last season. Finished 35th in the first Bristol race, had a issue in the first Richmond race (finished 17th) and 32nd at Martinsville (involved in wreck). His three races he didn't have problems in? He finished 2nd (Martinsville), 6th (Bristol) and 8th (Richmond). He been at his best at Richmond recently. Over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 7.5 average finish (2nd-best in series) with 4.0 average running position (series-best) and 122.7 driver rating (Series-best). Last season he had finishes of 8th and 17th. He was strong in the spring race and probably had the 2nd or 3rd best car, but I believe he was down a cylinder so he couldn't get going on the restarts. He was running top 10 when a late caution came out, so he pitted for 4 tires and fuel. That pretty much ended at shot he had a solid finish. He was also pretty strong in the fall race and finished 8th. He been pretty decent throughout his career. Minus his debut (Fall 2009 - finished 36th) and April 2011 (38th place finish), he have only once finished outside of the top 17. That race in 2013 where he finished 33rd. So overall, he have knocked 8 Top 15 finishes in 13 career races and T Top 10 finishes in his previous 8 races, dating back to 2012. 2 of those 3 races, he didn't finish inside the top 10? He had a top top 5 car in both events. So yeah he been good at Richmond!

He been alright at Bristol. Over the previous 2 seasons (excluding last spring race - finished 35th; misleading data) , he have supported 7.3 average finish with 6.7 average running position and 110.5 driver rating. In those 3 races, he finished 6th, 2nd and 14th. He been pretty solid at Bristol throughout his career. In 12 career races, he have knocked off 9 Top 19 finishes. Including 5 Top 6 finishes over his previous 9 races. 4 of those 5 races (80%) have ended inside the top 3. 3 of those 4 races have resulted in wins or runner-up finishes (August 2011, March 2012 & August 2014 ). I would consider Martinsville his worst racetrack most recently. Over previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 25.8 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 84.9 driver rating. Now numbers are misleading, I have seen Keselowski run very well at Martinsville and he have in the past. In fact, 6 of his first 8 races at Martinsville (March 2010 to April 2013) ended in 12th or better. Including 5 Top 10 finishes. However over his previous 4 races, he have finished 32nd or worse in 3 of 4. This stench of poor finishes (since March 2014) came right after finishing career-high 4th in October 2013. Don't be fooled though. He had top 5 potential cars in all three of the races he wrecked in at Martinsville. If he can keep his car on the track (and the lead lap), he can (and probably will) finish strong.

Big flats will likely be a strong spot for Brad and his Penske teammates in 2016. They have the horsepower advantage over most of the field and are usually very competitive! Last season on the big flats of Indy and Pocono (3 races), he supported 9.7 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 98.6 driver rating. He been very good at Pocono and Indy recently. At Pocono over his previous 4 races (2 seasons), he have supported 11.0 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 102.1 driver rating. He finished 2nd and 17th last season at Pocono. Neither of the Penske cars were that good in the first Pocono race if I remember correctly. I think it the part of the season where they were lacking speed for a few races. Over his previous 9 races at Pocono (dating back to 2011 season), he have managed 5 Top 6 finishes. Including 3 Top 2 finishes. Overall he have managed 8 Top 18 finishes in those 9 races. He also been pretty good at Indy, but there less data to go on though. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 11.0 average running position and 14.5 average running position and 94.1 driver rating. He have finished 12th and 10th over the previous 2 seasons. Overall he have finished 12th or better in 4 of the previous 5 races at Indy, dating back to the 2011 season. His lone non-top 12 finishes? 19th (debut in 2012) and 21st (2012 ). Last season's race was probably his best performance overall honestly. He started deep in the field and start was able to be very competitive. What so impressive about coming from deep in the field (31st starting position - worst ever starting spot at Indy), is because Indy is difficult to make passes at. In that race, he held 10.0 average running position and 102.6 driver rating. Both career-best from a performance standpoint. He also completed 79% of the laps inside the top 15. Also a career-high. Yeah he should pretty good at both Indy and Pocono!

Road courses will be a good type of racetrack for Keselowski in 2016. I fully expect him to perform better at Watkins Glenn than Sonoma. He have found very little success at Sonoma and that what stops him from being put at the top in regards of road course racers. As he have found plenty of success already at Watkins Glenn. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 21.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 92.8 driver rating. Misleading stats though. He finished 35th in the 2014. But finished that up with 7th place effort last season. Overall he have finished 4 of 6 career races inside the top 7. Including 3 straight top 2 from 2011 to 2013 (3 races). He been much  worse at Sonoma though. Over previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 20.5 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 64.3 driver rating. His best career finish came in 2011 of 10th. He followed up that race with 12th place finish in 2012. Other than that, his best career finish have been 19th. That 19th place finish came last season. Overall he have finished 19th or worse in 4 of his 6 career races. He needs to do better at Sonoma, considering he is in top tier equipment!

Restrictor Plates usually are hit or miss, even though he is typically a very strong plate racer. Last season at Daytona and Tallaega (4 races), he supported 24.0 average finish with 15.8 average running position and 81.7 driver rating. Typically Brad is a strong performer, but he tend to get caught up in wrecks often at both venues. At Talladega over the previous 4 races (2 seasons), he have supported 16.3 average finish with 18.8 average running position and 84.4 driver rating. He have finished 4th and 1st in 2 of his previous 3 Talladega races. Overall he have reeled off 5 Top 7 finishes over his previous 9 races. He haven't been quite as good recently at Daytona. Over previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 22.8 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 78.1 driver rating. He have finishes of 29th and 41st last season. Overall he have reeled off 4 Top 15 finishes over his previous 10 races. 3 of those 4 races ended inside the top 10. His latest top 10 finish was at the 2014 Daytona 500 though. He been hit or miss at Daytona in my opinion. More miss than anything though.

Twitter - @MattAleza

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Carl Edwards

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Carl Edwards enters his 2nd-full season as a member of Joe Gibbs Racing. His first ended in multiple wins and a chase birth. Despite a sluggish start, Edwards was able to end the season very strongly and I wouldn't expect the same sluggish start from the driver of the 19 car in 2016. In fact, I have pretty high standards for him this upcoming season. It almost expected that he wins multiple races again. Edwards will be his strongest on the intermediate tracks and short tracks. He will also be very solid at the short tracks and road courses. Honestly there isn't a track where, he cannot run and finish well at.

The intermediate racetracks are probably his best type of racetrack. I think JGR will be pretty stout  in 2016 and the top teams usually are pretty strong at the intermediate tracks. Last season in 16 races (Minus Las Vegas - wreck), he have supported 9.1 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 100.0 driver rating. He started off the season a bit sluggish and didn't score his top 10 finish until Texas and that was 10th. I don't think he really got going until Kentucky. I think that 4th-place finish really put a fire under Edwards. He was especially strong on the 1.5 mile racetracks going forward. He finished out the season with 5 straight top 11 finishes, including 4 Top 10 finishes. I would consider Kansas, Charlotte, Darlington, Atlanta, Texas and Las Vegas as his best racetracks probably. If I had to pick two, then I would go with Charlotte and Kansas honestly. Then probably Atlanta and Darlington. Simply put, you cannot go wrong with Edwards at any intimidate track and if he have some momentum headed into the weekend, then that's just a bonus.

Short tracks is a major strength for JGR as whole and they were pretty strong last season. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he supported 15.3 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 92.5 driver rating. Edwards was strong every time he went to a short track in 2015, however he had a misleading high teen to mid-20 finish at each track. He probably been at his best at Bristol I would say over the previous two seasons. Over the previous 4 races (2 seasons), he have supported 9.8 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 109.9 driver rating. His numbers are pretty stout here recently and they would have been better if Gordon didn't get into him last spring. Even though he have 3 Top 7 finishes in other three previous races. Including a win in spring 2014 with RFR. He also probably should have won the fall race in 2013 too. He led 119 and was leading the race when his engine went south. Overall 15 of the previous 20 Bristol races have ended inside the top 16 for Edwards (Dating back to 2006 season). Including 7 the of the previous 12 races ending inside the top 12. 6 of those race have ended inside the top 9.  His second best short track is probably Richmond recently. Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 15.3 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 80.4 driver rating. He finished 11th and 19th. He struggled last spring at Richmond. It was a strange race, it was ran during the day instead at night (rained out on Saturday night), and finished 19th. He followed that up with 11th place finish. Looking at his stats over the years, he been pretty consistent in recent seasons. Overall he have finished 9 of his previous 12 Richmond races inside the top 11. He have posted 8 Top 10s finishes as well. At probably at his worst at Martinsville, even though he had a top 5 car last spring. Over the previous 4 Martinsville (2 seasons), he have supported 16.0 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 86.1 driver rating. Through his career Edwards have been nothing but a teen driver. In 23 career starts, he only have about 5 Top 10s finish. He have 14 finishes from 11th-20th. He have finished 8 straight races in that 11th-20th place range. Including 14th and 17th efforts last season as well. His last top 10? All the way back in 2011 (9 races ago). Prior to 2012, he reeled off 3 top 10 in a 4 race span from March 2010 to October 2011. His best finish since have been 11th place in spring 2012 race. However with JGR, I expect him to be much more competitive than he was RFR. So I think he breaks his top 10-less streak at Martinsville in 2016!

Short flat racetracks will be a strong spot for Carl Edwards and JGR in 2016! He was pretty strong at both Phoenix and New Hampshire last season. In 2015 on the short flat racetracks, he supported 9.3 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 102.2 driver rating. He been pretty equal at New Hampshire and Phoenix. Both from a career point of view and recently! At New Hampshire over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 10.5 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 92.4 driver rating. He finished 5th and 7th last season with his first two races with Joe Gibbs Racing. He also have knocked off 4 Top 9 finishes over his previous 6 races at New Hampshire. Overall 8 of the previous 11 New Hampshire races have ended inside the top 13. Including 5 Top 9 finishes since the 2010 season (11 races ago). It also worth noting that Edwards swept the poles last season at New Hampshire. In 2015 at New Hampshire, he supported 6.0 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 104.8 driver rating. He always been pretty good here and I don't see that changing in 2016. He been just as good at Phoenix. Over the previous two seasons (4 races), he have supported 12.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 95.7 driver rating. Over that 4-race span, he have finishes that consists of 12th, 13th, 15th and 8th. He been pretty good at Phoenix dating back to the 2010 season (12 races ago). In that 12 race-span, he have reeled off 9 Top 15 finishes. 7 of those 9 Top 15 finishes ended in 12th or better. Including 5 Top 9 finishes. His latest coming in spring of 2014, when he finished 8th place.

Edwards also is pretty solid at road courses, even though I think he is still underrated. He been a solid driver on this type racetrack and people are just now realizing it. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races) at Sonoma, he have supported 20.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 95.2 driver rating. Last season he got very unlucky and got wrecked by David Ragan. In 2014, he went to victory lane after outrunning Jeff Gordon in the final few laps. Over the previous 4 seasons, he have managed 2 top 5 finishes (1st - 2014, 3rd - 2013) and 2 top finishes outside the top 20 (40th - 2015, 21st - 2012). Overall he have reeled off 5 Top 13 finishes over his previous 8 attempts (dating back to 2008). Including 3 Top 5 finishes over his previous 5 races, dating back to the 2011 season. He been just as good at WGI in my opinion. Over the previous 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 6.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 97.2 driver rating. He doesn't have a win here yet, but he been pretty darn good the past two seasons. His numbers throughout his career have been impressive. By stats this is considered his best racetrack at 8.7 average finish in 11 races. He have only once finished worse than 14th and that was all way back in his debut in 2005. Overall he have reeled off 5 Top 8 finishes over his previous 7 races (dating back to 2009). Including 4 Top 5 finishes over his previous 7 races, dating back to 2009 season.

Big flat racetracks will be another type racetrack like that Edwards should have decent amount of success at, even though he have struggled at both venues (Indy and Pocono) over the years. Last season on the large flat racetracks (3 races), he supported 12.7 average finish with 8.7 average running position and 106.2 driver rating. Last season at the larger flat racetracks, he also posted impressive 3.7 average starting position. Including two poles (one at Pocono and one at Indy). Which translated into some solid results. He posted finishes of 15th (1st Pocono race), 10th (2nd Pocono race) and 13th (Indy). He didn't impress us with any top 5 finishes or anything like that, but he was pretty consistent with his finishes, all of them coming in the 10th to 15th place range. Over the previous 4 Pocono races (2 seasons), he have supported 23.8 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 83.7 driver rating. He finished 10th and 15th last season. Prior to that, he been okay at Pocono. But I wouldn't call him anything beyond a high single digit to middle teen driver though. Over his previous 13 races (dating back to 2009), he have posted 9 Top 18 finishes. Including 6 Top 11 finishes. His best finish in that span is 3rd back in 2010. Even though he have won twice before at Pocono. First time coming in his debut in 2005 and then again in June 2009. He been decent at Indy over his career, even though he have posted majority of his finishes in the teens. Over the previous two seasons (2 races), he have supported 14.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 97.8 driver rating. He have finished 13th or 15th over the previous three seasons, dating back to the 2013 season where he finished 13th. Overall he have finished 7 of his career 11 races in the 12th-18th place range. He have collected 3 Top 10 finishes, with his last coming in 2010 of 7th place. He also finished 29th in 2012. Overall you know what you are getting with Edwards on the big flat racetracks. He will likely be a top 10 driver that finishes in the high single digits to low or middle teens.

The restrictor plates will be where Edwards does his worst work usually. He haven't done much of anything at either racetrack. He only have two top 10 finishes in his previous 12 races (which equal to the past 3 seasons). Going back further to 2011, he only have 4 top 10 finishes in his previous 18 races at Daytona and Talladega. Not exactly something to be proud of, even at the restrictor plates. He have only finished inside the top 20 about 39% of the time. For a driver of Carl's talent, he needs to be batting .500 in my opinion. Otherwise it is pretty pointless for him to have any type of fantasy value. Considering he pretty much runs well anywhere. I personally would stay away from Edwards at both Talladega and Daytona. Right now I just don't see any value with him, and that might change in the future. But headed into the season, I think there too many other good places he can be employed at.

Twitter - @MattAleza

2016 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Dale Jr

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8 years ago, Dale Earnhardt Jr joined HMS back in 2008. And 5 years ago, I would have said there no way he was ready to step up and become a elite talent in the HMS organization. But you know what at start of the 2012 season, something changed about Dale Jr and ever since he been one of the consistent drivers in the series. He topped 10 Top 5s and 20 Top 10s in his past 4 seasons at HMS and posting 11.7 average finish over his past 144 races. That's pretty damn solid! He will be his strongest on the intermediate racetracks, restrictor plates, short tracks and flat tracks. He will also perform well at road courses, which is something I didn't think I would ever see. Simply put, Dale Jr is a complete driver. He will run well just about at any track and have top 5 upside on a weekly basis. However he more often than not, should be counted on for a top 10 finish. If you are looking for a safe consistent choice, then Dale Jr is your guy!

Restrictor Plates will be Junior's strongest type racetrack. It no secret that Dale Jr is one of Nascar's most talented plate racers and always have the speed to back it up too. Rarely do we go to the superspeedways and not hear about the driver of the #88 car. He probably a lock to start on every fantasy team at the Daytona 500.  Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races) at Daytona, he have supported 4.8 average finish with 9.8 average running position and 110.0 driver rating. He have finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the past 4 of the last 5 Daytona 500 races and added two more top 4 finishes to that total during the summer races as well since the 2010 season. Yeah he pretty damn good at Daytona. However he haven't been as strong at Talladega. Which will probably surprise some people. Over his previous 4 Talladega races, he have supported 15.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 104.1 driver rating. He finished 1st and 2nd last season which was the first time since the 2011 season that he have had posted a better average finish at Talladega than Daytona. In his previous 14 races (dating back to the 2008 season - debut season with HMS), he have managed 5 Top 10 finishes (3 top 5s) and 9 Top 20 finishes total. Overall he been a little bit inconsistent, however you cannot argue with his major upside if you pick him. As we saw last season, it don't take much for Dale Jr to finish strong at a plate race.

The intermediate tracks have became a real strong spot for Dale Jr over the past few seasons and he now considered a primary driver at these venues. He was strong last season at the intermediate tracks. Last season in 16 Intermediate races (minus Homestead race - finished 40th), he supported 9.2 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 97.0 driver rating. He was very strong early in the season at the intermediate racetracks in 2015. He started off the season with 6 straight top 6 finishes, including 5 Top 3 finishes. Then he finished 14th at Dover. He followed that up with 2nd at Michigan, 20th at Kentucky and 10th at Michigan again. He start to see him down trending at that point in terms of fantasy value as was becoming a little inconsistent. But then he follows that up with 8th, 12th and 3rd at Darlington, Chicago and Dover. Of course he then ends the season with 3 straight finishes outside of the top 20 at Kansas, Charlotte and Homestead. Overall a stout 2015 season by Dale Jr on the intermediate tracks. I would consider Michigan, Atlanta, Las Vegas and Texas his best intermediate racetracks on the schedule. Especially Michigan and Atlanta. I would call them two his best two racetracks. Even though he also been pretty strong at Las Vegas the past two seasons.

Large Flat racetracks have been very kind to him recently and that shouldn't change in 2016 either. Last season on the large flat racetracks (3 races), he supported 12.3 average finish with 14.7 average running position and 91.8 driver rating. He been better at Pocono than Indy recently though. Over the previous 4 Pocono races, he have supported 4.3 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 111.6 driver rating. He finished 11th last June, but got damaged halfway through the race and had to battle back to a respectable finish. Or otherwise his average finish would have been even better. His other three finishes over the past 2 season have ended in either 1st or 4th. He swept the 2014 races. Overall he been pretty impressive since the 2011 season at Pocono. Over the previous 10 Pocono races (Dating back to the 2011 season), he have posted 9 Top 11 finishes. Including 6 Top 6 finishes in that 10 race stench of races. Yeah he been pretty stout at Pocono and should continue his success in the 2016 season at the large flat racetrack. Indy haven't been a bad track for Dale Jr, but I wouldn't call it a great one either though. Over the past two seasons (2 races), he have supported 15.5 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 80.5 driver rating. He finished 22nd last season at Indy. Prior to that, he had reeled off 3 straight top 9 finishes at Indy dating back to the 2012 season. Prior to that three-race stench, he had only 2 Top 10 finishes in his previous 12 races dating back to his track record in 2000.


Dale Jr should be pretty solid on short flat racetracks. Last season at the short flat racetracks (Phoenix and New Hampshire), he supported 18.5 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 98.2 driver rating. Over the previous 2 seasons (8 races), he have supported 12.9 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 100.4 driver rating. I would say he is better at New Hampshire than Phoenix. Even though he is pretty good at Phoenix too. He finished 43rd and 1st last season. Prior to his Phoenix wreck last spring, he had reeled off 4 straight top 8 finishes, dating back to the 2013 season. Overall he have knocked off 11 Top 14 finishes in 16 starts since coming to HMS in 2008. He been pretty strong, I would say at New Hampshire recently, even though he had that misleading 25th in the last season's chase. Over the previous 4 New Hampshire races, he have supported 12.3 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 97.9 driver rating. Minus his 25th-place finish last fall, he have reeled 11 straight top 17 finishes. Including 4 straight top 10 finishes. Overall he have finished 8 of the previous 14 races inside the top 10. 12 of the previous 15 races inside the top 15.

Short tracks will be another type racetrack that Dale Jr performs pretty well at! I expect him to be solid driver on the short tracks once again in 2016. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he supported 14.0 average finish with 18.2 average running position and 84.1 driver rating. I would say Martinsvlle have been his best racetrack recently. Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 11.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 101.3 driver rating. He have been pretty solid at Martinsville recently. 3 top 5 finishes in his previous 4 races. He lone-top 5 was 36th last spring, but that was because of a wreck and finished 47 laps down. He been pretty impressive since the 2010 season at Martinsville. In that 11-race stench, he have managed 8 Top 8 finishes, with five of those races ending inside the top 4. He won in fall of 2014 for though of you that don't remember. That marked his first career win at the short track. He also been pretty solid at Richmond. Over the previous 4 races at Richmond, he have supported 9.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 95.3 driver rating. He finished 14th and 5th last season at Richmond. Overall he have reeled off 8 straight top 14 finishes. Including 5 top 12 finishes and 4 of those 5 races have ending inside the top 10. He probably been at his worst at Bristol over the past two seasons. Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races), he have supported 22.0 average finish with 21.3 average running position and 77.0 driver rating. He had finishes of 9th and 16th last season. 4 of the past 6 races have ended inside the top 16. Overall he have reeled off 12 Top 16 finishes ins his previous 14 attempts. In that span, he have knocked off 7 Top 12 finishes and 10 Top 15 finishes.

Road course were once considered bad racetracks for Dale Jr and from the general public, he may still be viewed that way. However the stats over the past two seasons say otherwise. At Sonoma over previous two seasons (2 races), he have supported 5.0 average finish (best-average finish in the series) with 10.5 average running position and 106.4 driver rating. Overall he have reeled off 3 straight top 12 finishes at Sonoma dating back to 2013 season. 4 of his previous 6 races (dating back to 2010), he have finished 12th or better. Going back further, he have knocked 5 Top 12 finishes in his previous 8 races, since start of the 2008 season. He haven't quite as good at Watkins Glenn over the past few seasons. Over the previous 2 Watkins Glenn races, he have supported 11.0 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 103.1 driver rating. He have finished 11th in back-to-back races at WGI. Overall he have knocked off 3 Top 15 finishes in his previous 5 road courses races at WGI. However his last top 10 was all the way back in 2005, where he finished 10th place. He been close to breaking that top 10 mark though.

Twitter - @MattAleza