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This week's "preview" will be setup differently then most. We are at Daytona. Yes One of four scheduled plate races. Having skill is just as important as having luck. Using the draft to your advantage can be the different from a 17th place and 7th place. It doesn't really matter where you start.Only thing that matters is avoiding the "big one". Fantasy players will need to be wise when selecting their lineups. Especially if they are competitively completing for a championship. Those players might want to take a more conservative approach. While other deep in the standings, might want take a few chances to gain ground (depending on your league format / rules and requirements.)
Drivers to watch out for:
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski always seems to run up front in 2014. Plate races have been no different. He arguably had one of the best cars back in February (finish top 5). In past 5 races , Brad K holds an 13.6 average finish, 2 Top 5s , 3 Top 10s , 26 laps led and 90.4 driver rating. He only have One Dnf in that span.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon impressed people back in February with a 9th place finish. Unfortunately he wrecked several cars in the process. But there definitely promise with this youngster. Not many rookie can say they have a shot at sweeping the top 10 at Daytona in Sprint Cup Series.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin been pretty stout on plate tracks in 2014. He have an 1.5 average finish. Pretty darn good for guy who isn't typically known for his plate racing skills. Over past 5 races (at Daytona) , Hamlin holds an 16.2 average finish, 2 Top 5s , 2 Top 10s , 126 laps led , and 98.6 driver rating. Hamlin been Top 5 or basically bust (giving his elite status equipment wise).
14-Tony Stewart: Smoke and Daytona in July seems to go together. Smoke just love this time a year and Daytona been kind to over the years. Over past 5 races here , He holds an 19.0 average finish , 1 win , 2 Top 5s , 2 Top 10s , 24 laps led and 67.3 driver rating. Not overly impressive. But over the past 5 (July Daytona races) , Stewart holds an 8.0 average finish , 2 wins , 3 Top 5s , 3 Top 10s (4 Finishes of 11th or better).
16-Greg Biffle: Greg is probably the most reliable driver in the field this week. He always find way to finish well here. Not many can say that. Over past 5 races here , he holds an 11.0 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 3 Top 10s , 87 laps led and 102.8 driver rating.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Garry Briggs (@Gbriggs12) said , "The 17 car just goes together with plate races" after Talladega in 2013. And honestly he might be on to something. I mean , Ricky have consistently finish well at Daytona and Talladega. Over past 4 races here, He holds an 12.5 average finish , 1 Top 10, 0 laps led , and 75.5 driver rating. His worst finish in that span is 20th.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is a well known plate racer. Expect him to be a popular pick this weekend. Kenseth have been dominant in terms of laps led. Over past 5 races here , Matt holds an 16.0 average finish , 1 win , 2 Top 5s , 3 Top 10s , 226 laps led and 103.3 driver rating.
27-Paul Menard: Menard is an interesting option. He on the fine line of drivers to watch and drivers to avoid. His track record backs that up. Over past 5 races here , He holds an 23.2 average finish , 1 Top 10, 2 Top 20s , 32 laps led and 71.9 driver rating. Not very impressive. But if we take out an 43rd place finish in 2013. Menard holds an 15.75 average finish , 1 Top 10 , 3 Top 20s in the past four July races.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman was once known as a iffy option at Daytona. But most recently have turned the corner significantly. Over past 5 races here , Newman holds an 12.6 average finish , 2 Top 5s , 3 Top 10s , 3 laps led and 74.4 driver rating.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson been solid at Daytona recently. He's sweep Daytona last year and finish quite well at the 500 most recently. Over past 5 races here , he holds an 17.0 average finish , 2 wins , 3 Top 5s , 3 Top 10s , 126 laps led and 93.5 driver rating. Only two poor results were Dnfs by Johnson.
88-Dale Jr: Dale will be the most picked driver this week. And it probably won't be close either. Dale popularity combined with legitimate makes him the top option in many people views. His record here is unbelievable. Over past 5 races here, Dale holds an 5.6 average finish , 3 Top 5s , 4 Top 10s , 5 Top 15s , 54 laps led and 105.6 driver rating.
Dark Horses:
1-Jamie Mac: JMac always seems to be a popular options at the plate races. Weather he ends that way is the unknown question. Jamie always seems to be a boom or bust type of play. He will either knock off a fantastic finish or wreck out. Risk/Reward option.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick 2014 woes overall keeps him from being favorite at Daytona. But got to believe he will be threat all weekend long. He been freaky fast all season long. His record is inconsistent here though. Over past 5 races here , Harvick holds an 17.6 average finish , 0 win , 1 Top 5s , 2 Top 10s , 3 Top 20s , 0 laps led and 71.6 driver rating.Harvick finish inside the Top 5 a year ago.
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick doesn't stand out , but outside of a few costly wrecks. She actually have impressed me a bit. She can lead laps here (we know that). Getting the finishes is the unknown/ concern. Over the past four races here , she holds an 25.0 average finish, 1 Top 10, 2 Top 20s , 7 laps led and 70.7 driver rating. Take out the 2 bad results , She have an 11.0 average finish , 1 Top 10 , 2 Top 15s. Unfortunately that's too small of a sample size to work with and make it validated and relevant.
22-Joey Logano: Logano have been fast all season long. Expect the same this weekend. He was extremely strong at the 500. Over past 5 here, He holds an 16.6 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 10s , 4 Top 20, 6 laps led and 91.4 driver rating. His lone bad finish was an dnf. My concern is wasting an valuable start with him (mainly in Yahoo).
*32-Terry Labonte: Having a extremely down year? Why not go all out and go for broke (especially in Yahoo formats).Typically the Labonte bros are entered at the plate races. This will likely be Terry's final Daytona start. He is an experienced vet and is have been fairly reliable. Over past 5 races here , He holds an 20.6 , 4 Top 20s , 3 laps led and 53.1 driver rating. Not bad for crappy equipment.
51-Justin Allaiger: Justin wouldn't be the flashy popular option , but there aren't worst choices. Honestly I was quite impressed by the 51 at Talladega. He running solid until he had issue (think he got turned after getting a flat tire). Nevertheless I am definitely considering him.
*52-Bobby Labonte: Bobby is arguably the most underrated plate racer in Nascar. He finish 15th back at the Daytona 500. And it wasn't a fluke either. He been in minor equipment for a few years now. Over past 5 races here , He holds an 15.6 average finish , 1 Top 10 , 4 Top 20s , 0 laps led and 60.3 driver rating. There a sneaky play the risk takers out there.
66-Michael Waltrip: MW will either finish really well or really poorly. Nothing in between. So prepare for that outcome. He been better in the July races then February's though. February average finish is 31.5. While July average finish is 7.0 (past four races).
99-Carl Edwards: Edwards is an interesting option. The Roush cards seems to always run well here. Even this year. Over past 5 races here , he holds an 18.6 average finish , 2 Top 10s , 3 Top 20s , 8 laps led and 78.9 driver rating.
Drivers to avoid:
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne is like a mystery box. You don't know what inside. Daytona haven't been kind to Kahne really. His stats back that up. Over past 5 races , He holds an 27.0 average finish , 1 Top 10 , 1 Top 20, 2 laps led, 78.3 driver rating. I don't expect that to change much.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch doesn't give us much value nor upside with his recent track record at Daytona. Over past 5 races ,He holds an 21.2 average finish , 3 Top 20s, 54 laps led and 92.6 driver rating. At end of the day , we tend to look for consistency at plate races. Busch record doesn't stack up unfortunately.
21-Trevor Bayne: Bayne is so far overrated as a plate racer. It not even laughable anymore. He was much better with the tandem style racing back in 2011. He isn't a good drafter. Not to mention , he tends to get caught up in wrecks most of the time. Over the past 5 races here , He holds an 28.4 average finish,1 Top 20, 2 laps led, and 55.5 driver rating. That pretty bad. Yet he still an popular pick. Probably because his 2011 Daytona 500 victory overshadows his realistic record since. Don't be fooled.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon finish inside the top 5 back in February. But unfortunately he have left a lot of us to doubt him as a safe fantasy pick for Daytona. Two things stick out to me: His horrible record recently at Daytona and getting caught up in the big one at Talladega. A lot of it have to do with luck. And that's the thing. His luck at plate races haven't been that great lately. Don't really see the need to force a start here. Especially with New Hampshire , Indy , Pocono, Atlanta , Bristol , Richmond coming up.
55-Brian Vickers: Vickers isn't a guy that we associate with plate racing. He doesn't have a good track record. Vickers is much more useful at Intermediate tracks and flat surfaces (like New Hampshire and Bristol coming up).
Twitter : @MichelleRizzo5
Thanks for reading ,
Michelle Rizzo
