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We are headed to Richmond this weekend. For many this is the final race of segment 2 in Fantasy Land. Weather you are prepping for the final ten 10 or just trying to win segment 2. Either way Richmond is a big race. Its layout is 0.75 in length. An flat - short racetrack. Typically I classify it under flat track. Somewhat similar to Phoenix. But success on one doesn't translates to another. So gathering multiple data from other short flats and past history will be key to success.
1-JMac: JMac usually runs well on the flats. He was running top 10 the first time around. Before fading later on and eventually finishing in the top 15. Over the past 5 races here , JMac have compiled 15.8 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10 , 3 Top 20s , 6 laps led , and 85.7 driver rating.
2-Brad Keselowski: Brad K been good all season long and the flats been good to BK. He finished Top 5 at Phoenix , Richmond and New Hampshire (won). Not too shabby. He also sports an solid record. Over the past 5 races , BK have compiled 14.0 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 3 Top 10s , 4 Top 20s , 256 laps led , and 99.6 driver rating.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon been a little rocky lately. But he should be able to get straighten out at Richmond. This haven't been a good track , but then again he only have one start. I expect Dillon to show top 25 speed in practice and finish around 20th on Saturday night.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick put a old fashion whipping on the field at Atlanta and still didn't win. Expect the same type of race out Harvick once again. Harvick is the king at Phoenix and Richmond isn't far behind. He easily had the best car earlier this year. Over the past 5 races , KV have conpiled 10.4 average finish , 1 win , 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 10s , 5 Top 20s , 39 laps led , and 102.6 driver rating.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne came out of Atlanta with a win after an late caution. Richmond haven't been a great place for Kasey in the past. Same goes for short flats in 2014. Kasey been inconsistent. That can be said every week though. Over the past 5 races , KK have compiled 13.2 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10 , 4 Top 20s , 3 laps led , and 94.3 driver rating.
10-Danica Patrick: Danica took Nascar by storm at Atlanta . She was also one of the sleepers last week @Gbriggs12 listed. So not too surprising. Danica have potential this week , but it difficult to trust her. She is inconsistent every week. She could run top 10 one week. The next , she 5 laps down in 30th. She difficult to predict.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin was fairly strong at Atlanta. And capped the weekend off with an top 5. RIR is another great track for him. May be his racetrack outside of Martinsville. Over the past 4 races here , DH have compiled 16.2 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10 , 2 Top 20s , 202 laps led, and 97.3 driver rating.
14-Tony Stewart: Smoke wins he in. If not he is out. Expect Smoke to put it all on the line. I see two outcomes. Smoke get rewarded on a big gamble or ends his night wrecking trying to win. Those are two likely outcomes.
16-Greg Biffle: The Biff have been solid lately. He needs a strong run on Saturday. So he remains one of the safest plays this week. I don't expect him or his team to take any risky gambles. Biff have 4 Top 20 in the past 5 races here. With an 18.0 average finish in that span.
18-Kyle Busch: Okay just avoid him at all costs. There really nothing else to say. He had zero Top 10s in August. That bad. Typically KB is strong in August. Richmond been a good track in the past too. But is it worth the risk?
20-Matt Kenseth: MK been great over the past few races (Bristol and Atlanta). I would have liked him a lot more , if he did not clinch into the chase. He still could be great option , but my fear is he will be testing. Over the past 5 races here , MK have compiled 6.8 average finish , 2 Top 5s , 4 Top 10s , 5 Top 20s , 180 laps led and 104.4 driver rating.
22-Joey Logano: JoLo was looking really good at Atlanta until the late craziness which cost Joey a great finish. Joey was bad fast last time and went to Victory lane earlier this season. Over the past 5 races , JoLo have compiled 16.0 average finish , 1 win , 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 10 , 46 laps led and 81.8 driver rating.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon had one of the best car last time at Richmond. Gordon didn't win , but he had the car to beat after the halfway point. Over the past 5 races , JG have compiled 9.2 average finish , 2 Top 5s , 3 Top 10s , 224 laps led and 96.7 driver rating. Gordon is my early pick.
27-Paul Menard: Menard have struggled on similar tracks in 2014. So I would probably avoid him at all costs. He past track record at Richmond also support that. He holds an 24 average finish in 15 races.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman in my opinion should be one of the safest plays this week. I was very impressed by Newman earlier this year. He was unbelievable on the long run and I was believe he could be just as strong. Over the past 5 races here , 9.8 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 3 Top 10s , 5 Top 20s , 17 laps led and 89.2 driver rating.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson was bad fast last time here and started on the pole. He was wrecked on lap 1 though. I am fairly high on him given he look good enough in practice again. I think he an top 10 guy.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson haven't shown his dominated self like we are use to. But luckily JJ is coming into form just at the right time with back to back Top 5s finishes. Richmond isn't a good track for Johnson though. Johnson struggled earlier this year , so I rather save him for Chicagoland.
51-Justin Alliager: The C list is slim this week no doubt. And Justin may be the most interesting option outside of Larson and Dillon. Justin had a great race last time. I am relatively high on him. Hopefully he back that up again.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr was bad fast last time at Richmond. He was super strong on the long run all race. He been good all season actually. Expect more of the same on Saturday. Over the past 5 races here , Dale jr have compiled 9.2 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 3 Top 10s , 74 laps led and 98.8 driver rating.
99-Carl Edwards: Edwards typically shows up here well. The question is what does Carl have to gain. He locked in , so he will probably win or wreck trying. He really have nothing to lose (like several others). Edwards finish top 10 earlier this season. He been inconsistent on similar tracks though.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
