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We are headed to Kansas this weekend. The drivers to beat will be the guys with the fastest cars. Earlier this season Kevin Harvick dominated , but couldn't catch Gordon in the closing laps. In that race , a lot of drivers had misleading finishes. So looking solely at the finishing order is not a wise idea. To set a solid lineup , we should use 2014 data on 1.5 mile racetracks. Also past data from here is just as important. Let get rolling!
1-Jamie Mac: JMac was looking good until he lost a lap at Dover. He was much better then 22nd. Kansas isn't a great track Jamie. Over the past 5 races , JMac have compiled 18.2 average finish , 1 Top 10 , 4 Top 20s , 0 laps led , 1 DNF and 79.1 driver rating. He been a top 15 machine on the 1.5 milers in 2014.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is like the king of consistency when it comes to running inside the top 5 at this type track. He won at Vegas , Kentucky and Chicago. Texas , Kansas , Charlotte and Atlanta he should have finished inside the top 5 , but some sort issue prevented it. Over the past 5 races here , BK have compiled 11.0 average finish , 2 Top 10s , 5 Top 20s , 67 laps led and 88.0 driver rating. BK was running inside the top 5 , before an issue occurred and settled for a top 15.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon was at best average the first time around and finished 19th and posted an 68.8 driver rating. I expect him to finish around the same position this weekend. Maybe a little better.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick so many times have dominated this season , but come up short. Dovr he led over 220 laps before blowing a LF tire. Last time at Kansas he led the most laps and finished 2nd. Over the past 5 races here , KH have compiled 6.4 average finish , 1 win , 2 Top 5s , 3 Top 10s , 5 Top 20s , 257 laps led , 2 poles and 113.7 driver rating. Harvick have had a car capable of winning multiple times on this type track in 2014.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne seems to be significantly slower then Gordon. Something which doesn't make sense. Especially since they're in the same garage. Anyhow Kansas is probably Kasey best track outside of Charlotte left on the schedule. There are better choices though.
10-Danica Patrick: Last time she was at Kansas , Patrick took the nation by storm with her most respectable performance to date. I do not think she can repeat that. But a top 15 is reasonable to me. As I said before , Danica have performed better on faster racetracks.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin started off Dover strong , but eventually faded to finished 12th and advanced to Round 2. Kansas is by far not Denny best racetrack. Actually this is probably one his worst tracks left on the schedule. Over the past 4 races here , DH have compiled 13.7 average finish , 1 win , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10 , 3 Top 20s , 32 laps led , and 92.9 driver rating. In 12 career starts at Kansas , Hamlin have 3 Top 10s (all were actually top 5s).
16-Greg Biffle: Biffle was eliminated from championship contention after Dover. So here my advice: Just avoid him. He is useless to us. Actually been useless all season outside of a few tracks. There are better choices. In my opinion he is only useable at Talladega in a few weeks. Maybe Texas as well.
18-KyleBusch: Busch scoring a top 5 at Kansas is like the Cleveland Browns winning the Super Bowl. In other words , it seems impossible. Busch career numbers speaks for itself. In 14 career races , KB holds 22.7 average finish , 2 Top 10s , 6 Top 10s(!) and 4 DNFs. Avoid him like the plague , kids.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth haven't been great in 2014 , but he is all about consistency. His 5th place finish last week was good , but it will only take him so far in the chase. Dover been a good track though. Over the past 5 races here , MK have compiled 5.4 average finish , 2 wins , 3 Top 5s , 5 Top 10s , 5 Top 10s , 265 laps led , and 116.9 driver rating. Haven't been quite as good after the repave though.
22-Joey Logano: Logano have been impressive on this type racetrack. Fast week in and week out. I have said all year , Penske have a significant edge on the 1.5 milers. So far Team Penske have scored 4 wins. Probably could have sweep the top 5 if issues haven't occurred. Over the past 5 races here , JoLo have compiled 16.2 average finish , 2 Top 5s , 2 Top 10s , 4 Top 20s , 96 laps led , 1 DNF and 88.9 driver rating. On a side note , I think there better tracks to use Logano.
24-Jeff Gordon: Man does Gordon keep on impressing me. I mean 4 wins and counting. It reminds of that magical 2001 season with Stevie L as his crew chief. Gordon comes to Kansas with a lot of momentum on his side. Since the 2012 repave , he been smoking here. Including finishes of 1st and 3rd recently respectively. Over the past 5 races here , JG have compiled 9.6 average finish , 1 win , 2 Top 5s , 3 Top 10s , 4 Top 20s , 11 laps led and 94.6 driver rating.
27-Paul Menard: Menard been good on the Intermediate tracks all season long. Unfortunately it looks like Menard has hit a brick wall recently. Haven't shown much muscle in the chase at all. More importantly looked lost at Chicago and Dover for the most part. It might be a good idea to play wait and see game with P-daddy Menard.
31-Ryan Newman: I was quite surprised how much Newman have struggled recently at Kansas. Over the past 5 races here , RN have compiled 22.0 average finish , 3 Top 20s , 3 laps led , 1 DNF , 78.5 driver rating. In 17 career races , Ryan holds 18.7 average finish , 1 win, 3 Top 5s , 4 Top 10s , and 10 Top 20s. On the positive side , Newman have consistently finished inside the top 15 on this type track in 2014.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson finished 12th and posted a 89.4 driver rating earlier this season. That isn't easy to do as a rookie. Larson I believe can finish up front anywhere. I do believe his best shot to win will be at Texas. The worn out tracks suit him better. But this kid can finish inside the top 5 anywhere. The question is when.
48-Jimmie Johnson: I hinted last week after practice , Johnson wouldn't dominate like we all thought. And that exactly what happened at Dover. Johnson been off all season and the big reason is the packages in the racecars. The 48 haven't quite figured it out yet. Last time at Kansas , Double J struggled somewhat. Over the past 5 races here , Johnson have compiled 6.0 average , 2 Top 5s , 5 Top 10s , 85 laps led and 112.4 driver rating.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr finished 17th at Dover. I was puzzled frankly. They aren't that bad. Kansas been a good place for Dale jr lately. Since the repave he been a top 10 machine. Over the past 4 races here , Dale Jr have compiled 9.0 average , 1 Top 5 , 3 Top 10s , 4 Top 20s , 20 laps led and 107.4 driver rating. Dale Jr have been one of the most consistent drivers at this type track in 2014. He won't lead the most lap or qualify up front. But he is a safe pick.
99-Carl Edwards: I wrote the 99 off , after he said something about not being able to pass other cars. Boy did RFR cars look terrible at halfway at Dover. But Cousin Carl found a way to finish 11th. Now on to Kansas. Kansas been a good track to RFR. But 2014 data suggests otherwise. Over the past 5 races here , Edwards have compiled 10.2 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 3 Top 10s , 5 Top 20s , 26 kaps led and 96.9 driver rating. Expect a top 15 out of the 99 at best.
*** All stats from www.driveraverages.com/
Also remember to check out: Nascar Behind The Wall . Great blog for all your Nascar needs.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
