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Week 3 had everything! Including unknowns studs and well-knowns studs looking like duds. As the suspending of players finally stopped , the injuries keep piling up. Now the byes are upon us , we cannot catch a break huh? Last week I went 16 for 21! Only missing Stevan Ridley ( ended up a bust) , Victor Cruz , Andre Johnson ,Big Ben and Andy Dalton. Taking my overall % up to 66% (41/62) on correct starts/sits. Let get to the week 4!
Starts -
Quarterbacks:
Phillip Rivers: Rivers been very good to start the season. In week 4 , he get a very nice matchup vs Jacksonville. Jacksonville been very bad against Quarterbacks in 2014. Last week Jacksonville was murdered by Andrew Luck. Expect similar results in week 4. Jags ranks near the top with fantasy points allows against Quarterbacks.
Kirk Cousins: Give Cousins 3 Quarters (week 2) ,he post up solid numbers. Give Cousins an full week of practice and full game , he an fantasy monster. I was impressed by him. In week 4 , the Gmen are coming (Thursday night). In 2014 , the giants defense allowed some big time numbers overall. In fact they have allowed close to 20 fantasy points per game to Quarterbacks. Cousins could be a great play on TNF.
Jay Cutler: Cutler has started off the season pretty well. He didn't quite go KABOOM vs the Jets. But the Packers are next on the schedule. The packers have an improved secondary ,but not enough to stop those big and fast Bears Receivers. Despite Stafford being stuffed for single digits fantasy points last week , that whole game was whacky. So I will disregard that individual game. Smith and Wilson both were able to take advantage of this average Packers defense.
Running Backs:
Alfred Morris: Morris have been very good at home lately. The Giants defense makes it even easier to start him. Morris have averaged an TD per game over his past 10 games at home. Thats great news for Morris owners. Also the Giants allowed 78 yards last week to Alfred Blue. Alfred Morris is much better then Alfred Blue. Expect around 100 yards and 1 TD on Thursday from Morris.
Matt Asiata: In week 4 , Asista get an very favorable matchup. Atlanta have allowed the most fantasy points (in just about every format) to running backs. Asista haven't been impressive so far , but you cannot pass up to this matchup. Its have golden opportunity written all over it. Especially in PPR.
Eddie Lacy: Folks if you've already dealt Lacy off ,I cannot blame you. But luckily for loyal Lacy owners , the Bears have been horrible against the run. Actually they been terrible against the run dating back to middle of the 2013 season. So it isn't an fluke they struggled against the run in 2014. Lacy haven't impressed , but all three games the Packers had to pass a lot. Mainly because they had been down early in every game. I expect the Packers to run a lot against Chicago early and often.
Wide Receivers:
Julian Edelman: Edelman is easily the most consistent WR in the league today. No player have produced least 6 catches in 9 straight games. Well okay Edelman have. Not Calvin Johnson , not Brandon Marshall ,not Dez Bryant. That impressive. Especially since he isn't even the top target in New England. Julian is PPR gold. In week 4 , Kansas City brings an favorable matchup for Edelman. Kansas City Defense have allowed over 20 fantasy points per game against WRs (in the first three games.)
Jeremy Maclin: Maclin have clearly took over the top spot in the WR core. Even though it wasn't very close to begin with. Maclin have scored least once in his past two games. In week 4 , he get an very good matchup against 49ers. Most people don't realize how weak the 49ers secondary been so far (allowing over 30 points per game so far.) Maclin should have another great day.
Michael Crabtree: Crabtree is the No.1 option within the 49ers offense. Crabtree is a solid No.2 wideout in week 4 against the Eagles. The Eagles defense have allowed over 30 fantasy points per game against WRs. Crabtree should make a great option this weekend. His value could go up with no TE Davis this week.
Tight End:
Greg Olsen: Olsen have started the season off very well. Including 19 catches , 224 yards and 2 TDs. As I said last week , Greg is better on the road then at home. He is even better in PPR. As Olsen have recorded least 5 catches in his past 3 road games.
Martellus Bennett: Bennett isn't a elite option , but he is worth a start nevertheless. His September success been well known. In his last 11 games in September , he have almost averaged one TD per game. Along with 58 yards per game. The Packers defense is questionable at times ,so why not start him?
Sit:
Quarterbacks:
Eli Manning: Eli didn't throw an interception in week 3 , but history says that is unlikely to continue on Thursday night. In 2013 , he average almost 2 interceptions per game. So far in 2014 , he is once again on pace to repeat that feat. Washington doesn't brings a super difficult matchup , but there are better choices out there. Eli doesn't offer much upside outside of mult-QB leagues. Mainly because his TD production / Interception rate significantly drags down his value.
Alex Smith: Smith have drawn a tough matchup vs New England. New England ranks inside the top 5 in points allowed against Quarterbacks. Smith inabilities aren't what make him a bad play this week. But how the KC offense is setup is what makes him a bad play against tough foe.
Matthew Stafford: I know most will be forced to start Stafford , but other then week 1 he have failed to impress. In week 3 , he proved why he is a liability. The Jets doesn't represents a overall tough matchup , but can he be trusted after back to back average stat line performances?
Running Backs:
Stevan Ridley: Ridley value depends on how he used or more importantly how the Pats decide to split the carries among the backs. Here an interesting stat line: When the Pats are ahead , Stevan Ridley have 128 yards (4.1 ypc on 33 carries.) While only having 28 yards with a 2.0 ypc on 14 carries when trailing. Something to consider right there with Ridley.
Reggie Bush: Bush had a breakout game against Green Bay. But it may be short lived against a very stout Jets defense against the run. As he is sharing field time with Bell. Realistically Bush is safer PPR play then standard. I just don't see him being a smart play in either format other then a low flex option. Forte was contained on Monday easily. Expect the Detroit backfield have a similar outcome.
Steven Jackson: Jackson supports an solid average per run , but doesn't have # of carries to considered a weekly starter. Vikings represents a good matchup , unfortunately I doubt he can take advantage. Last week he did , but the game was pretty much over after the first series. It really depends on your options with Jackson. I prefer to bench Jackson in favor of someone who brings more upside.
Wide Receivers:
Ty Hilton: I was big on Hilton in the offseason , but boy has he struggled in 3 games. Not given up hope , but his fantasy value is pretty bleak. Not shocking though. There a lot of talent in Indy and everyone want a piece of the cake. Titans are ranked inside the top 10 with fantasy points allowed after 3 games.
Vincent Jackson: Jackson haven't faired well in the first three games. Actually many considered him a buy low candidate. I disagree though. I want no part of an WR with a bad QB situation such as in Tampa. I know most wouldn't bench him , but sooner or later owners may have no choice.
Tight Ends:
Heath Miller: Miller was a popular sleeper during the offseason , but after 3 weeks that thought is laughable. Miller struggled to do much this season. Ultimately as I said last week the blame should be on the QB. Miller productive isn't high mainly because lack of targets. At best Miller an bench warmer until further notice.
Coby Fleener: Fleener isn't the Tight End to own in Indy. He might score a TD from time to time , but he shouldn't be started unless there a very favorable matchup. Titans brings a difficult matchup on Sunday. I would recommend avoiding any Colts TE this week.
Twitter - @MattAleza
