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We are at Homestead this weekend! The final race of the 2014 season which means this is also the final preview. I am afraid Sunday race will be the Phoenix and Texas drama on steroids. From a fantasy stand point of view , Homestead is our superbowl. Its literally all nothing or now. Use 'em if you got 'em. Championships hopes will be shattered. While other will rain supreme in championship gold & glory.
1-Jamie Mac: JMac literally been all nothing in the chase. He usually runs top 10 , but rarely finish where he should. At Texas (very similar track) , he had a good run. Over the past three 1.5 mile layouts , JMac have an 11.0 average finish , 2 Top 5s and 32 laps led. He led least one lap each one. Over the past 2 races here , JMac have compiled 25.0 average finish , 1 Top 20 and 60.0 driver rating.
2-Brad Keselowski: BK could be in for a long afternoon on Sunday. Jeff Gordon gonna get justice and trust me it gonna be ugly. Nevertheless Brad will be fast all week. Over the previous three 1.5 mile layouts , BK have compiled 18.3 average finish , 0 win , 1 Top 5 , and 32 laps led. For the record , the other two races he was capable of least an top 10. But had mechanical issues. Over the past 2 races here, BK have compiled 10.5 average finish , 1 Top 10 , 2 Top 20s , 9 laps led and 103.0 driver rating.
3-Austin Dillon: Not exactly sure what happened to Dillon at Phoenix. But he finished 30 laps down in 38th place. I wouldn't expect that in back-to-back races. Over the previous three 1.5 layouts , AD have compiled 14.0 average finish , 1 Top 10 and 6 laps led. He should be good for an top 20.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick absolutely dominated Phoenix (as I predicted) , now on to Homestead. Over the previous three 1.5 layouts , Harvick have compiled 5.0 average finish , 1 win , 2 Top 5s , 2 Top 10s , and 225 laps led. Very impressive. But his Homestead stats aren't bad either. Over the past 2 races here , KH have compiled 9.0 average finish , 2 Top 10s , 2 Top 20s , 8 laps led and 87.5 driver rating. He might be the favorite overall.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne isn't really a relevant option at this point and time. He have had his worst season ever at Hendrick MotorSports. Homestead is unlikely to change that. Outside of his win at Atlanta , Kahne literally looked lost. Over the previous three 1.5 layouts , KK have compiled 23.3 average finish , 1 Top 20s , and 2 laps led. His Homestead record isn't much better. Over the past two races here , KK have compiled 17.0 average finish , 1 Top 20, 7 laps led and 89.3 driver rating.
10-Danica Patrick: Danica was better then I thought at Phoenix. But still I don't know if she an useable option at Homestead. Practice will be the overall determining factor though. Right now I have her as an top 25 option.
11-Denny Hamlin: Remember when people said 0 JGR cars would make the championship? Got to love this new chase format. Hamlin loves worn out surfaces like Homestead. Over the past three 1.5 layouts, DH have compiled 8.7 average finish , 3 Top 10s and 25 laps led. His Homestead record been good too. Over the past 2 races here , DH have compiled 12.5 average finish , 1 Win , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10, 1 Top 20 , 72 laps led and 96.5 driver rating.
16-Greg Biffle: Biff haven't been great this season , but the RFR strength been on this type track. In fact over the previous three 1.5 layouts , The Biff have compiled 15.3 average. Unfortunately 0 Top 10s or laps led. While having a similar Homestead record. Over the past 2 races here , The Biff have compiled an 14.5 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10, 1 Top 20 , 0 laps led and 76.5 driver rating.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch didn't have the season he wanted , but still a nice 2014 campaign. Busch been pretty good during the chase on this type track. Over the past three 1.5 layouts , Rowdy have compiled 4.0 average finish (series-best) , 3 Top 5s (series-best) , 3 Top 10s , and 42 laps led. His Homestead record just as impressive. Over the past 2 races here , Rowdy have compiled 5.5 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 10s , 191 laps led and 125.5 driver rating.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth was officially eliminated after Phoenix , but that doesn't mean he won't try to win the final race of 2014. MK been pretty average on this type track this season. Over the previous three 1.5 layouts , MK have compiled 19.0 average finish , 0 Top 10s and 0 laps led. To be fair , he had top 10 cars in all three events. Unfortunately got a misleading finish. His Homestead record solid though. Over the past 2 races here , 10.0 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10, 2 Top 20s , 146 laps led and 119.5 driver rating.
22-Joey Logano: And then there were 4. A lot of people jumped on Logano Championship bandwagon recently. But I called it last November and then officially in January that Logano would be win the 2014 Championship. People thought I was nuts. Guess I will be receiving some apologizes. Logano been consistent on this type track. Over the previous three 1.5 layouts , JoLo have compiled 5.7 average finish, 1 win , 2 Top 5s , 2 Top 10s and 122 laps led. His Homestead record isn't bad. Over the past 2races here ,JoLo have compiled 11.0 average finish, 1 Top 10 , 2 Top 20s and 87.9 driver rating.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon is probably one of two guys I am extremely nervous about from a fantasy point of view. Gordon racing for nothing now. Winning at Homestead will likely be the least of his worries. He said things could get ugly at Homestead. I don't like that one bit. Still will bring a fast racecar. Gordon won this race two seasons ago on pit strategy. Gordon had one of the cars to beat at Texas few weeks ago. Over the past two races here , Gordon have compiled 6.0 average finish , 1 win , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10s , 2 Top 20s , 14 laps led and 109.2 driver rating.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is so consistent its just unbelievable. I mean he so predictable its not funny. This season he have ran mostly inside the top 15 , but no better then 7th most of the time. Over the previous three 1.5 layouts , RN have compiled 9.3 average finish , 2 Top 10s and 7 laps led. He have an similar Homestead record. Over the past 2 races here , RN have compiled 10.0 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10, 2 Top 20s , 4 laps led and 88.7 driver rating.
42-Kyle Larson: This kid is impressive and he was no different at Phoenix. Most of the race he ran inside the top 10. But was tagged by Newman. Which eventually resulted in an 13th place finish. Not many drivers been better then Larson recently. Over the previous three 1.5 layouts , Larson have compiled 5.0 average finish , 1 Top 5s , 3 Top 10s and 5 laps led. Homestead is a worn out racetrack , and this kid loves them worn out racetracks.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is probably having his worst season since well ever. But he have 4 wins in 2014. Which is saying a lot on how great Johnson been over his career. I believe he can win this weekend. There absolutely no pressure on him or his teammates. Johnson won a few weeks ago at Texas Motor Speedway. Another worn out racetrack. I expect Johnson be a legit threat.
88-Dale Jr: Since being eliminated , Dale Jr have been one of the most consistent options in Nascar. He is someone I would highly consider as a suitable replacement if you out of Gordon(s) and Harvick(s). Only thing that I don't like is his stats at Homestead. Still think he is worth a look at. He will least be an top 10 guy come Sunday.
99-Carl Edwards: Edwards have had a very good chase. I was quite puzzled after the first round. But he sure proved me wrong. Now we head to Homestead and his final start with RFR. Over the previous three 1.5 layouts , Edwards have compiled an 7.3 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 3 Top 10s , and 1 laps led. His Homestead record is pretty good as well. Over the past 2 races here , Edwards have compiled 12.0 average finish , 2 Top 20s , and 96.7 driver rating.
**All drivers stats from Driver Averages and Racing Reference
As always check out: Nascar Behind The Wall . Great site. Great writer. Great stuff.
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