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We are headed to Martinsville! One of my personal favorite tracks , I love the action on the paperclip. Its bring excitement and drama to the races! From a fantasy vantage point , I try to find value and limit big names. Honestly this is a special track and only select few can drive it. I believe you have it or you don't.
Martinsville is all about rhythm and it seems the same drivers run well here every time. I find that interesting and incredibly amazing. Who should you consider picking at the paperclip? I have some suggestions below!
1-Jamie Mac: I consider Martinsville to be JMac best racetrack , despite the numbers saying different. He just can drive this place. Not everyone can do that. He is probably the best kept secret at MVille! He may burn you as he is known for that , but I like his upside. In the past 4 races here , JMac have posted an 18.8 average finish with an 14.3 average running position. Not impressed? 3 of the 4 races have ended 16th or better. Excluding last season spring race where he finished 42nd. Jamie have an 11.0 average finish with an 9.4 average running position and 2 Top 10s. I just blow your mind , admit it!
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is coming off a win at Fontana. This team is definitely trending upwards! Martinsville is a great track for him , but had terrible last season. Finished 38th and 31st unfortunately. Before that , BK score 4 straight Top 10s. A lot of people probably forgotten how good the 2 car is here. We might be reminded of that come Sunday!
3-Austin Dillon: Honestly I am not buying any Dillon-stock. Even though there clearly worse options out there though. Last season he had a 12.5 average finish and did what he needed to do to survive. Dillon a nice option to consider in certain formats , but unfortunately I don't see too much upside. He probably will be a Top 20 option with maybe top 15 upside at best.
4-Kevin Harvick: I believe the streak ends at 8 on Sunday! Martinsville isn't a track you can master overnight and Harvick haven't been a elite option here. Its more about rhythm than pure speed. He was decent last season here in both races. Had a top 10 car in both races , but not race contending caliber though. In 27 career starts , Harvick have only 3 Top 5 finishes. He could definitely be a race contender , but I say there better tracks coming up.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne is the most inconsistent driver in Nascar! Just cannot buy into Kahne on a short track like Martinsville. Despite the team he drives for. As I said earlier , not everyone can drive Martinsville! I place Kahne under that class and his track record back it up too. In 6 starts with HMS at Martinsville , Kahne have 4 finishes 22nd or worse (2 outside of top 35) and 2 finishes of 4th or better.
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick overrated here and it kinda hilarious , too! Everyone always remember her debut at Martinsville , but nobody seems to remember the past 3 races for her here. In fact she managed to finish worse with every start (somehow). She finished 12th in debut of Spring 2013. Since? 17th , 32nd and 34th. Hard to feel good about a option who have a negative trend. Then again , Is it ever a good idea to pick Danica on a short track in the first place?
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin and Martinsville have gone together well in the past. He have struggled over the past 3 races in my opinion. Despite 2 Top 10s in those races , his numbers are down overall. Especially compared to earlier in career. From October 2006 to 2010 , Hamlin reeled off 9 straight Top 6s. Including 4 wins and 7 finishes of 3rd or better. I do believe the old Hamlin is back. He led 68 laps last fall and finish 7th. I also believe JGR is much better than last season. We are seeing JGR contending for wins more often thus far. Definitely something to consider. Hamlin is on my short-list of potential fantasy picks.
14-Tony Stewart: I don't think Smoke is totally back , but we seen signs of it last week in Fontana. I believe he will come full circle during the summer months like usually! He been decent recently here. Over the past 3 races , Smoke have an 12.7 average finish with an 13.3 average running position. I am not totally against rolling with Smoke. But I think there more reasons to leave him off than not. I think he will run like he did last week. Probably a teen-ish driver overall.
15-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer had this race won last season , but let a win escape during the closing laps. Bowyer is in my opinion a very elite short-track racer. In Yahoo Fantasy Racing , my plan is to run him at almost every short track. At Martinsville , he been money since joining MWR. In 6 starts with MWR , Bowyer have finished inside the top 10 in every single race. Including an 6.0 average finish in those races. Never have gone to victory lane at this track though. In 18 career starts , Bowyer have 12 Top 10s. Including 8 of his previous 10 races! He might be the best driver to never win at Martinsville.
16-Greg Biffle: RFR is a joke and it getting ridiculous too! With that said , I see a perfect opportunity this week to pounce on some Biff value. Most people think Biff is terrible at Martinsville. Yes that was true at one time , but he actually been fairly reliable of late. In the past 4 races here , Biff have an 12.3 average finish with 15.3 average running position. In fact , Biff have 7 straight finishes of 18th or better. Including 5 of his previous 6 races have ended in 13th or better (3 Top 10s) at Martinsville.
18-David Ragan: Ragan had a very rough day at Fontana and somehow still managed a top 20! Well done by Ragan and 18 Team. Ragan actually may go unnoticed this week and honestly I am hoping he does to be honest. Last season in the 34 car , he scored a top 10 here. Surprisingly Ragan have a knack for running well here. Back with roush earlier in his career , he wasn't terrible. 6 Of his first 10 starts ended inside the top 20. Nothing to brag about , but RFR didn't have a strong short-flat track program like JGR does.
19-Carl Edwards: I have not been impressed by Edwards thus far. Honestly he looks like he still driving a RFR car. At Martinsville , things aren't gonna get any easier unfortunately for him. Even though Edwards way underrated here. 17 Of his previous 18 races here , Edwards have finished 20th or better. Including 3 finishes of 15th or better in the past 4 starts. I think he will be a teen driver with top 10 upside. Overall I haven't seen enough for Edwards to consider him this week.
20-Matt Kenseth: Matt Kenseth will be under everyone radars this week , but don't be fooled. Kenseth been one of the most reliable option lately. He is way underrated at Martinsville. Arguably one of the best kept this week. 8 Of his past 10 races here have ended in 15th or better. Including 5 Top 6 finishes. Last season he led in both events and finished 6th in both events. Actually Kenseth have 6 straight Top 15s here.
22-Joey Logano: Logano is vastly underrated at Martinsville. He have made great strides here. Last season he sweep the top 5. That is mighty impressive as he was only one of few drivers to accomplish this feat. Overall his awesome performance last season didn't surprise me. Before coming to Penske , Logano had 8 career starts with JGR. In 6 of those races , he managed to finish 18th or better. He have taken the next step at Martinsville and could be the next Jeff Gordon at the paperclip. Given he continue to improve his skills.
24-Jeff Gordon: If Gordon cannot be a race contender at Martinsville , then I think he toast in terms of fantasy value. Honestly I am still avoiding him in all Fantasy related games. Last week at Fontana , Gordon wasn't even a top 10 driver. But luckily he knows Martinsville back of his hand. I believe Gordon could somehow go under the radar. If I was gonna gamble , then is the place. 16 Of the past 20 races , Gordon have finished inside the top 5! Including 3 finishes of 3rd or better in his past 4 races.
25-Chase Elliott: Elliott will make his Cup debut on Sunday. He is pretty much a must-roster in Yahoo Fantasy Racing as he will be in HMS equipment. Hard saying how he will do though as Sprint Cup debuts can be difficult for a young driver. Still you have to take advantage of this golden opportunity.
27-Paul Menard: Got to gives props to anyone who roll Menard at Fontana! Well done and now we look at another track Menard will be overlooked at. Over the past 5 here , Menard have 4 finishes inside the top 20. Including 3 finishes of 14th or better. Last season he finished 14th and 10th. Surprisingly nobody really have taken advantage of his tremendous early season value. I admit there probably better tracks for him , but his guy have a lot of momentum. Including 4 straight Top 15s from Atlanta to Fontana.
31-Ryan Newman: Somebody quick put Ryan Newman out , because he is on fire! All he does is score top 5s! I been impressed and honestly he is nowhere near on enough people radars thus far. Newman have 3 straight Top 5s heading into Martinsville on Sunday. More impressive than Harvick. Mainly because Newman is so undervalued its stupid. Martinsville actually a great track for Newman , too. 4 Of his past 6 starts here have ended in 20th or better. Including 2 Top 5s in that span. Clearly inconsistent , but he did finish 3rd last fall.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is overrated here and that a fact. Honestly not sure how he got a rap sheet as a elite driver here. In 29 starts , He only have 4 Top 10s. His win last spring and previous top 10 before that? Almost 10 years apart (2005)! Now I am not saying Busch cannot run well , I am saying his track record is pretty rocky. Then again he sure does have a lot of momentum. Sometimes momentum overweights past history.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is coming off an 26th place finish at Fontana! Not really liking much about Larson to tell you the truth. In 3 career starts , Larson have 2 DNFs already. His best finish? 27th. Hard to like a driver with stats like that. I would recommend leaving Larson off your lineup this week.
47-AJ Dinger: Dinger-stock is on the downslide as he comes to one of his best track. Over his past 7 starts (dating back to 2010) , Dinger have 5 finishes of 14th or better. Including 4 finishes inside the top 11. Last season he finished 9th and 11th in the 47 car. Never was a race contender , but still was awesome to see. I expect just as good this season out of the 47 team.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is the man at Martinsville. So I am not gonna bore you with stats and telling you how great he is. Just do yourself a favor and add him to your lineup right now. Because there is no safer pick this week. He is my early pick to win. In fact , Johnson is the only driver to win more than once over the past 5 races. The only downside is everyone else will have him as well.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr is on a roll and doesn't seems to be slowing down anytime soon either. Truex have scored 5 straight Top 10s. The question I gotten a lot recently is , "When do I save him in Yahoo?" Honestly I think this is a great week to let off the brake with Truex. Kinda feel like he more useful at Intermediates. Even though I like him for a top 10 on Sunday.
88-Dale Jr: Another Hendrick driver who will have a shot at victory lane on Sunday. Dale Jr will probably be overlooked much more than his teammates. Honestly I don't hate rostering Dale over one of them. In 10 of his 14 starts with HMS , Dale Jr have finished 8th or better. Including the past 3 races here. Last season he finished 1st and 3rd while leading in both events.
***All stats from Driver averages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
