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Sleepers & busts could be the ultimate determining factor in your leagues at Phoenix. To me it all about staying ahead the curve and maximize value when opportunity are viable. As we get deeper into the season , trends will be more obvious. Unfortunately the value decreases too. Which under the radar drivers , am I targeting? Who could be a potential letdown? Lets find out!
Garry's season predictions %: 13 for 15 (87%)
AJ Dinger - The Dinger! Last two weeks he scores back-to-back top 10s! Marks by words , his popularity will skyrocket if he score another top 10 at Phoenix. This is a decent track for him and he has a lot of momentum. Its all about trust with underfunded teams like Dinger. 1 solid finish could be a fluke. Back-to-back solid finishes is a streak. Might be last real chance to grab value with him until he cools down. Of course this is pure speculation.
Casey Mears - You heard about a lot of drivers this week , but one who will go unnamed this week is Casey. Mainly because people don't realize the potential he has for Phoenix. Excluding 2012 race , Mears have finished 18th or better in 3 straight spring races at Phoenix. I am not just relying on track history. Mears actually off to a hot start! How hot? In first three races , Mears has an 15.3 average finish. That's pretty decent overall. For Mears gamble to work , we need to have a few big name drivers to stumble. At a place like Phoenix , I think there a good possibility of that.
Greg Biffle: The Biff is someone to keep a eye on as a potential sleeper. You can pretty much rule out contending for a win. But I do think he could contend for a top 10 to top 15. Last season we saw a trend develop with the Biff on shorter flat and at Phoenix. His finishes were consistent. On the shorter flats , he finished 6 of 8 races from 13th-17th. The second Phoenix (9th) and second Richmond (19th) were the only races where he didn't finish in the middle-teens. You could argue that irreverent information since Phoenix isn't realistically similar to any other flat. This true , but he had an 13.2 average finish at Phoenix in 2014. Which isn't terrible at all. I would take flier on Biff. Especially if I could snag a top 12.
Busts:
Kasey Kahne- Kahner is boom or bust at to a certain extent. In 21 career races , he has 10 finishes of 17th or worse. While having 11 finishes of 15th of better. Including 7 Top 10s. Since joining HMS , Kahne have resemble what his entire career has. In his last 3 spring races , Kahne only has a average finish of 21.3. Kahne has 2 Top 5 at Phoenix since joining HMS , but both of them been in the fall. In fact Kahne only have 2 Top 10s in 10 spring races.
Carl Edwards - Why is Edwards a potential bust? Better question is why not!? I like Edwards a lot and I think he is capable of a top 10 at Phoenix. But after 3 races , Edwards haven't gained my trust. It hard to trust a major asset , when they haven't score a top 10. Honestly my theory is he haven't completely settled in at JGR. I give him to Texas before he start building momentum. Until he re-prove himself , I don't feel comfortable using him.
Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
