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The word we will hear a lot on Sunday? Track position. Phoenix is a difficult place to pass. You can make passes , but it could take several laps to clear someone. Don't be shocked to see someone get wrecked out of frustration. Furthest anyone won from? 29th. I think the ultimate deciding factor will be on Pit road. Who can get off pit road fastest on the final stop may be standing in victory lane.
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick is definitely one of the favorite and he is my pick to win. Had the best 10-lap average in final practice. But I do believe Harvick is beatable Sunday though. Harvick is going for his 4th straight win at Phoenix by the way. Harvick will start from the pole , if weren't already aware.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr - Dale Jr starts 16th , but he seems to have a good car overall. He looked just outside top 5 in final practice. Typically if he strong in practice, he will be a contender during the race. Dale Jr have an 4.3 average finish over the past 6 Phoenix races. I think he will finish in the 3rd - 8th range. Depending on adjustments he makes during the race though.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
3. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth looked best among the JGR cars and he will start from 4th. Kenseth isn't a great qualifier nor does he show his hand in practice , unless he have a great racecar. In final practice , I thought he was decent. Uncertain if he stay with Harvick and co. But two things I love about Kenseth: 1) Terrific starting position. 2) Great value. Kenseth was overlooked this week and I believe he least an top 10 option with top 5 upside.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
4. Brad Keselowski - Brad K looking pretty good this weekend which is good to see. I thought they were lacking the first 3 races. But now it looks like they've caught back up. Keselowski will start from 6th and have a car capable of running up front in the top 3. Honestly still think Penske just a tick behind (speed wise). I expect an top 5 or so from Keselowski when it all said and done.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
5. Joey Logano - Logano want to win and it definitely could happen. Logano will roll off from 2nd and showed excellent speed in each practice. Final practice is most relevant. In that practice , he posted the 5th-best Ten-lap average. I am not convinced he have the speed to win , but I wouldn't rule it out either. Logano said Harvick beatable. Something tells me , Logano know something we don't.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
6. Jeff Gordon - Gordon will start 10th and should contend for a top 10. But I am just not feeling Gordon at Phoenix. This team a little off right now. As I mentioned last week I felt like the 24 was a liability going forward for our fantasy teams. I don't think I could start Gordon without seeing a incident free-race. Thus far that haven't been the case. Gordon posted the 6th-best Ten lap average during final practice.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
Other options - Ryan Newman (9th) , Jimmie Johnson (12th) , and Denny Hamlin (14th)
B:
1. Kurt Busch - If Harvick doesn't win , his teammate may be the reason why. Kurt Busch was impressive on Saturday. He topped the morning session and finished 3rd quickest in final practice. He also posted the 2nd-best Ten lap average in final practice from lap 16 to lap 25. Busch is furious and if I was betting man , I would put some action on the 41 car.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
2. Kasey Kahne - Kahne will start from 9th and will likely contend for a top 10 on Sunday. Kahne showed relatively solid long run speed which should translate into something good for the Kahne takers. There a lot to love about Kahne and this re-energized 5 team. At the same time , you never know what you're getting with him. Garry Briggs stated a important question on Fantasy Racing Talk after final practice , "With Kahne you have determine does the reward outweigh the risk?" I think it does at Phoenix. I say Kahne finish 7th-12th place range on Sunday. Even though I believe he can run in the top 5.
My Overall Ranking: 8th
3. Martin Truex Jr - Martin Truex Jr will start from 13th and have a very good car for Sunday race. How good? Martin Truex Jr said the car was solid at end of final practice. I usually take a driver word over lap times. Even though his lap times were competitive. I wouldn't be shocked to see the 78 score a top 5 again this week. They seems to be hot right now and my rule is ride 'em while they're hot! I have Truex Jr slotted in at 9th. Would've been higher , but Truex track record and equipment level bumped him.
My Overall Ranking: 10th
4. Kyle Larson - Larson will start 12th and should contend for a top 10. He showed great long run speed in final practice , least I thought so. He posted the 4th best Ten-lap average in final practice. Larson finish both races in the top 20 at Phoenix last season. I also feel like CGR cars will have a better opportunity to run in the top 5 and possibly win. Phoenix is more of rhythm track than speed.
My Overall Ranking: 11th
5. Carl Edwards - Edwards will likely contend for a top 10 , but I am not sure he will finish there. A lot of other experts hinted towards this as well earlier this week. While Edwards does have the speed figured out , unfortunately the team chemistry isn't developed. We saw this from Harvick and Kenseth as well. I have Edwards pencil in at 11th. Realistically I see him finishing 7th-15th place range.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
6. Jamie Mac - How about JMac! J-O-Mac! Love when he qualifies up front. I said he would be a decent sleeper in my preview and he have looked pretty solid after three practices and qualifying. If he been solid , why is he ranked 6th on the B-list rankings? Two reasons: 1) Lesser equipment than some of the drivers ranked ahead of him. 2) His known bad luck. JMac can be running top 10 one lap and be in the garage the next. He is like the posterchild of finding wrecks and mechanical issues. Not saying he will , but there always that possibility. I see him contending for a top 10 on Sunday , but I say he comes up short with a top 15.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
7. Tony Stewart - Smoke is off to rough start , but he haven't been terrible this weekend at Phoenix. He haven't been great either though. Honestly I think he scores his first top 25 of the 2015. Also think he scores an top 20. Now I wouldn't recommend him to your fantasy team. Actually outside the first 6 , I don't see the point of use of using anyone.
My Overall Ranking: 16th
Other options - Clint Bowyer (17th) , Brian Vickers (19th) , Austin Dillon (20th)
C:
1. David Ragan - Let me make it simple , Ragan is the most relevant and reliable option in this grouping tier. He is by far the most impressive fantasy option throughout the weekend. Ragan isn't no Kyle Busch , but he shown he can run lap times inside the top 15. If he can do that in the race , I will be very happy.
My Overall Ranking: 18th
2. Danica Patrick - Patrick will start from 23rd on Sunday and honestly I see her finishing around there too. She just don't have the speed nor the reliability to be a viable fantasy option with Ragan being relevant in the 18 car. I don't see any upside in selecting Danica. Especially when Ragan is available to us.
My Overall Ranking: 23rd
Other options - LOL
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
