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Anytime we go to Fontana , I try to look for value through trends and relevant race data. Mainly because the unpredictable nature this place typically brings. Last season we sure saw it , but that was overkill. Anyhow this is a good week to sneak on a few good sleepers. Now don't go too crazy , especially if you're sitting near top of your league.
Let roll!
Garry's Season Predictions %: 80% (16/20)
Sleepers:
Paul Menard - What if I told you Menard has the 5th-best average finish (8.5) with 15.5 average running position!? Oh but it true. He surprisingly has turned the corner. I don't think he back that up with a third top 10 though. At similar tracks in 2015 , Menard have an 12.5 average finish with an 17.0 running position. I expect another top 15 out of Menard. I will take consistent top 15 all day long.
Dale Earnhardt Jr - Looking back at the first two intermediate tracks , Dale Jr made a strong argument as the best overall driver. He had an 6.5 average start (series-best) , 3.5 average finish (2nd-best) and 3.5 average running position (series-best). Realistically Harvick was the best driver , but Dale Jr wasn't far off. His ACS record isn't too shabby either. Excluding last season race , Junior have compiled 2.5 average finish (series-best) and 10.0 average running position (4th-best). Pretty decent stats for a guy who will be overlooked by most.
Ryan Newman - There only 2 drivers with back-to-back top 5s and one of is Kevin Harvick. The other? Ryan Newman! He been quite impressive. Looking back at stats from the first two intermediate tracks , Newman had an 6.5 average finish with an 9.5 average running position. Also Newman have qualified well inside the top 10 in both races. I love his momentum. Sometimes momentum is more important than past history. Heard that? Sound of opportunity knocking.
Busts:
Tony Stewart- Honestly I am puzzled how Smoke is still making people lineups. If you select to your lineup , you should prepare for disappointment. He looked completely dead this season. You could make an argument he was looking decent last week. But comparing Phoenix to Fontana is irreverent. The two races we need to look at is Vegas and Atlanta to get accurate data. In those races , Smoke posted an 31.5 average finish and 27.5 average running position. Just terrible. Last season at Fontana , Smoke wasn't much better though. Despite finishing 5th , he only posted an 19.0 average running position.
Brad Keselowski - Thought about throwing Carl Edwards to the dogs again with 0 top 10s thus far in 2015. But Keselowski track record is like a fat chick trying to do a pull-up. Ugly! Heck his track record in state of California is bad in general. In 6 career starts , Keselowski has a career best of 18th or something. At Atlanta/Vegas , BK put together a 8.0 average finish with an 10.0 average running position. Keselowski have the potential to breakout at Fontana , but the numbers suggests otherwise. I think there least 6 better options than Keselowski in general.
*All Stats from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com and Driver Aveages.com
Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
Anytime we go to Fontana , I try to look for value through trends and relevant race data. Mainly because the unpredictable nature this place typically brings. Last season we sure saw it , but that was overkill. Anyhow this is a good week to sneak on a few good sleepers. Now don't go too crazy , especially if you're sitting near top of your league.
Let roll!
Garry's Season Predictions %: 80% (16/20)
Sleepers:
Paul Menard - What if I told you Menard has the 5th-best average finish (8.5) with 15.5 average running position!? Oh but it true. He surprisingly has turned the corner. I don't think he back that up with a third top 10 though. At similar tracks in 2015 , Menard have an 12.5 average finish with an 17.0 running position. I expect another top 15 out of Menard. I will take consistent top 15 all day long.
Dale Earnhardt Jr - Looking back at the first two intermediate tracks , Dale Jr made a strong argument as the best overall driver. He had an 6.5 average start (series-best) , 3.5 average finish (2nd-best) and 3.5 average running position (series-best). Realistically Harvick was the best driver , but Dale Jr wasn't far off. His ACS record isn't too shabby either. Excluding last season race , Junior have compiled 2.5 average finish (series-best) and 10.0 average running position (4th-best). Pretty decent stats for a guy who will be overlooked by most.
Ryan Newman - There only 2 drivers with back-to-back top 5s and one of is Kevin Harvick. The other? Ryan Newman! He been quite impressive. Looking back at stats from the first two intermediate tracks , Newman had an 6.5 average finish with an 9.5 average running position. Also Newman have qualified well inside the top 10 in both races. I love his momentum. Sometimes momentum is more important than past history. Heard that? Sound of opportunity knocking.
Busts:
Tony Stewart- Honestly I am puzzled how Smoke is still making people lineups. If you select to your lineup , you should prepare for disappointment. He looked completely dead this season. You could make an argument he was looking decent last week. But comparing Phoenix to Fontana is irreverent. The two races we need to look at is Vegas and Atlanta to get accurate data. In those races , Smoke posted an 31.5 average finish and 27.5 average running position. Just terrible. Last season at Fontana , Smoke wasn't much better though. Despite finishing 5th , he only posted an 19.0 average running position.
Brad Keselowski - Thought about throwing Carl Edwards to the dogs again with 0 top 10s thus far in 2015. But Keselowski track record is like a fat chick trying to do a pull-up. Ugly! Heck his track record in state of California is bad in general. In 6 career starts , Keselowski has a career best of 18th or something. At Atlanta/Vegas , BK put together a 8.0 average finish with an 10.0 average running position. Keselowski have the potential to breakout at Fontana , but the numbers suggests otherwise. I think there least 6 better options than Keselowski in general.
*All Stats from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com and Driver Aveages.com
Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
