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We are headed to Michigan this weekend for the 15th race of the 2015 NSCS season. Much like Pocono, this is another horsepower racetrack. Which means the cars to beat this weekend will be the cars with the most power under the hood. However Michigan is known as a fuel mileage racetrack. So don't be shocked to see Sunday's race under such conditions! From fantasy point of view, I want anything with a chevy engine. As we saw at Pocono , the chevy powered cars ran up front all day long. I expect no different at Michigan! When making our fantasy picks , we will refer back to races held on intermediates tracks in 2015. There have been 6 races held on this type track! Cali is the most comparable track to Michigan as they are considered sister tracks.
1-Jamie Mac: Jamie Mac have started the 2015 season off very well and have been one of the most reliable fantasy options over the past several races. Last season at Michigan he posted finishes of 14th and 22nd. Over the past 4 races at Michigan , JMac posted an 20.3 average finish, 19.3 average start, 16.3 average running position and 81.1 driver rating. Those are standout numbers, but they are more than reliable numbers considering CGR haven't exactly set the world on fire with their elite speed. He been strong the high-speed intermediates in 2015 though. Minus Atlanta wreck, he have compiled 14.0 average finish, 15.4 average start, 16.4 average running position and 79.6 driver rating. Truth be told, Jamie have been pretty up down this season on this type track. He finished 19th and 21st at Charlotte and Cali. While wrecking out at Atlanta. However he also had some decent results at Texas, Kansas and Vegas. From career point of view, he have held an 19.4 average finish with 4 career Top 10s. His last top 10 was in 2008 back with RFR. Even though he have finished either 12th and 14th in 4 of the past 6 races.
2-Brad Keselowski: Honestly I don't know what going on with Penske. They struggled at Dover and Pocono. Even before that they have looked a little off. Keselowski was pretty solid here in 2014 though. He posted finishes of 3rd and 8th. Over the past 4 races here, he have posted 8.8 average finish, 9.0 average start, 7.3 average running position, 23 laps led and 106.6 driver rating. Those are some really good numbers, but I don't expect him to back those results up. On similar tracks in 2015, he have compiled 5.4 average finish, 6.2 average start, 7.8 average running position, 83 laps led and 111.1 driver rating. Again great numbers, but I don't know what going on with Penske. Might be a good idea to avoid Brad to we know more.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon have started the 2015 off pretty shaky will some inconsistent results, but have came on wrong lately. Last season at Michigan he finished 22nd and 30th here. I believe he had a flat tire right after an pit stop in the June race. Which basically ended his day in 30th place. However don't be fooled though. In that race, he held an 13.0 average running position and completed 88% of all laps inside the top 15. Last season he posted an 26.0 average finish, 12.5 average start , 15.0 average running position, 2 laps led and 73.5 driver rating. The first thing that stands out is his average running position (15.0). In 2014 most of his ARP's were in the low to mid 20s. So it highly suggests that Dillon is very good at Michigan. In 2013, he had finishes of 11th and 14th. On similar tracks in 2015, Dillon have compiled 22.2 average finish, 19.0 average start, 22.7 average running position and 67.5 driver rating. He struggled for the most part on the high-speed Intermediate tracks in 2015. He did finish 16th at Cali though.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick have wheeled off 10 Top 2 finishes in 14 races this season. I smell another top 2 finish from him. Last season he finished 2nd in both races. Over the past 4 races at Michigan, he have posted 2.0 average finish (Series-best), 3.5 average start, 4.0 average running position (Series-best), 63 laps led and 127.4 driver rating. Those are some very elite numbers , however they look weak compared his stats on the high-speed Intermediate tracks in 2015. Minus Charlotte, he have compiled 1.8 average finish, 6.0 average start, 3.2 average running position, 441 laps led and 132.4 driver rating. He pretty much been unstoppable this season on this type track. Even though he only have one win to show for at Vegas. In 28 career starts, he have held 13.0 average finish with 12 Top 10s and 23 Top 20s. Including 7 of the past 9 races ending inside the top 15. With 5 of those 7 results ending inside the top 2.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey wasn't anything special at Pocono and finished decent in 13th. He never really contended and I didn't think he would either. At Michigan I expect him to be a heavy contender though. Last season he posted finishes of 16th and 7th. Over the past 3 Michigan races, he posted an 9.3 average finish, 19.7 average start, 15.0 average running position, and 88.6 driver rating. Before this nice stench of races at Michigan, he finished worse than 30th in 2 of his 3 first starts with HMS. Looking at his 2015 numbers, he been pretty good overall on the high-speed intermediate tracks. In 6 races, he have compiled an 14.2 average finish, 11.8 average start, 10.7 average running position and 96.7 driver rating. Really haven't had a bad race yet, but haven't had a great one either though.
10-Danica Patrick: I know some of you are still recovering from the Danica-effect of Pocono. However don't take her out of your lineup yet! Last season she posted finishes of 18th and 17th. Going back to her debut in June 2013, she have knocked off 3 finishes of 18th or better in 4 starts. Michigan is arguably her racetrack on NSCS schedule. Honestly I think some of her success at Michigan is helped by the horsepower she have under the hood. On similar tracks in 2015, she have compiled 21.2 average finish with 21.8 average running position and 64.8 driver rating. I would expect another top 20 from Danica this weekend.
11-Denny Hamlin: The JGR cars have shown significant improvements, but it clear they're still few steps behind the Hendrick engines. Last season Hamlin posted 7th and 29th. Honestly Denny have struggled pretty bad here since winning 2 of 3 in 2010 to 2011 races. His 7th last August was his first top 10 since his win in 2011. On Intermediate tracks in 2015, he have compiled 21.8 average finish, 10.8 average start, 10.8 average running position, 123 laps led and 95.6 driver rating. In 14 races in 2015, Hamlin have 7 Top 10s and 7 finishes worse than 20th. Pretty inconsistent overall, so I would wait on using Hamlin.
16-Greg Biffle: How in the world did Biffle finish 12th at Pocono? I wrote him when he was running in the middle-20s with 50 laps to go. At Michigan, Biffle could be a fine fantasy play. Over his past 6 races here, he have knocked off 5 Top 10s. Including in 2 of his 3 past starts. It doesn't hurt he have some momentum lately either. He have wheeled off 4 straight Top 15 finishes. Any reliability from a RFR driver in 2015 is a great sign. His numbers overall this season doesn't impress me, but this is a very good track for him. I don't hate taking a shot in the dark.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch had his worst overall performance of the 2015 season, but had his best finish of 9th. I don't really like him or any JGR driver not named Matt Kenseth. Since his win in 2011, he have finished worse than 30th in 4 of his past 6 starts. So pretty similar to teammate Denny Hamlin. Honestly it tough to get a good read on Busch since he haven't have much value with limited season data. He been pretty average over his entire career at best.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards find new ways to finish outside the top 10 each week, doesn't he? I wouldn't expect anything less this weekend at Michigan. Even though this is considered one of Edwards best racetracks on the schedule! Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 16.0 average finish, 11.3 average start, 16.0 average running position, 16 laps led and 82.0 driver rating. He struggled in 2014 with finishing 23rd (twice). Before that? He knocked off 13 Top 12 finishes in 14 races. Including 11 Top 10s in that 14-race span. On similar tracks, he have compiled 16.3 average finish, 9.7 average start, 12.2 average running position, 40 laps led and 92.2 driver rating.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is probably the only JGR driver I trust at Michigan. He haven't been anything special since JGR, but has shown the most consistency though. Last August he finished 38th (-30 Laps). Before that? He finished 15th or better in his first starts with JGR. None of his performances have stoodout like with RFR. His best race was his debut in June 2013 with Gibbs. He finished 8th in that race. He been stout throughout his career. In 31 career starts, MK have held 10.9 average finish with 12 Top 5 and 18 Top 10s. More impressively he 29 Top 20s in those 31 races. This season he been decent on similar tracks in 2015. MK have compiled 13.0 average finish, 13.5 average start, 10.8 average running position, 81 laps led and 94.5 driver rating. The race that stands out is Cali where he had the race won until a late caution. Ironically it also the most comparable racetrack to Michigan. Got to count for something, right?
22-Joey Logano: To be honest, I am not sure what to expect from him. He was real strong last season. He posted finishes of 3rd and 9th. In 2013, he posted finishes of 9th and 1st. So that averages out to an 5.5 average finish over the past 4 races here. More noticeably he had an series-best 4.8 average running position and the most laps led (187). On similar tracks this season? He have compiled 7.2 average finish, 4.2 average start, 6.8 average running position, 196 laps led and 109.6 driver rating.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon was on pace to have best race of the 2015 season and then his day went south at Pocono. Last season he posted finishes of 1st and 6th. However he have struggled at this track lately. 5 Of his past 9 races have ended 17th or worse. Not to mention, Gordon have struggled to produce good finishes on high-speed intermediate tracks. He have compiled 15.8 average finish, 14.0 average start, 13.5 average running position, and 86.3 driver rating. Those numbers are considered weak compared to his teammates. I would pass on Gordon probably.
27-Paul Menard: Remenber what I said about Menard being inconsistent after the first 12 races? There are tracks Menard seems to run well at and Michigan is one of them lately. Last season he swept the top 5. More impressively he have knocked off 3 straight Top 5 at this track. All three races ended in 4th place! This is by far Menard's best racetrack by far. Thinking back to Cali, he finished 4th in that race as well. See a trend? He been strong this season on Intermediate racetracks. Unfortunately the results are very misleading. Several races he ran inside (or close to) the top 5, but got screw in the end. Still good numbers: 17.0 average finish with 14.5 average running position and 85.3 driver rating. I am very high on him this week!
41-Kurt Busch: Busch is someone who could win on Sunday. He was real strong earlier this season at California. He had the car to beat before a late caution, but had to settle for 3rd. He had a pair of strong performances last season at Michigan. Finished 13th last June. He finished 31st in August. However he was competitively running top 10 before hitting the wall. Looking at his track record, he haven't been a standout. In 28 career starts, he have held an 21.2 average finish with 9 Top 10s and 14 Top 20s. Including 2 wins and 4 Top 5 finishes.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is starting to hit a groove. Actually both of the CGR cars. Honestly I didn't think either were overly good at Pocono until late in the race. Larson looking to extend his top 10 streak to a season-high 3 straight Top 10s. Last season he posted results of 8th and 43rd at Michigan. He was on pace to another respectable finish last August until he wrecked. He been okay this season on high-speed Intermediate tracks. Larson have compiled 20.8 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 85.6 driver rating. He could be a nice option this weekend.
48-Jimmie Johnson: I am not sure what to expect from Johnson. He could make a great option, but he have shown real inconsistency at Michigan. Finished 9th and 1st last season. Before that? He finished 4 of his previous 6 races outside the top 25. On the flip side, he been the best driver on this type track. He have wins at Vegas, Texas and Kansas. Wrecked out at Atlanta and Charlotte though. He finished inside the top 10 at Fontana. The 48 team seems to be in boom or bust mode lately. They're obviously being more aggressive with their setups.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex have been on hot recently and doesn't look to slow at Michigan. This is another high-speed intermediate racetrack and he been one of the better drivers all season long. He have compiled 6.5 average finish with 6.8 average running position and 113.7 driver rating. Even though he have struggled at Michigan, I expect him to be strong once again. I get the feeling it doesn't matter the racetrack for Truex.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr disappointed at Pocono, but he won't at Michigan. I always have considered this Dale's best track outside of Daytona and Talladega. He have knocked off 4 finishes of 7th or better in his past 6 races. Including last season finishes of 5th and 7th. Looking at results in 2015, he been one of the best drivers on this type track. He have compiled an 3.7 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 110.2 driver rating in 6 races on high-speed intermediate racetracks this season.
*All stats from DriverAverages and FantasyRacingCheatSheet
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
We are headed to Michigan this weekend for the 15th race of the 2015 NSCS season. Much like Pocono, this is another horsepower racetrack. Which means the cars to beat this weekend will be the cars with the most power under the hood. However Michigan is known as a fuel mileage racetrack. So don't be shocked to see Sunday's race under such conditions! From fantasy point of view, I want anything with a chevy engine. As we saw at Pocono , the chevy powered cars ran up front all day long. I expect no different at Michigan! When making our fantasy picks , we will refer back to races held on intermediates tracks in 2015. There have been 6 races held on this type track! Cali is the most comparable track to Michigan as they are considered sister tracks.
1-Jamie Mac: Jamie Mac have started the 2015 season off very well and have been one of the most reliable fantasy options over the past several races. Last season at Michigan he posted finishes of 14th and 22nd. Over the past 4 races at Michigan , JMac posted an 20.3 average finish, 19.3 average start, 16.3 average running position and 81.1 driver rating. Those are standout numbers, but they are more than reliable numbers considering CGR haven't exactly set the world on fire with their elite speed. He been strong the high-speed intermediates in 2015 though. Minus Atlanta wreck, he have compiled 14.0 average finish, 15.4 average start, 16.4 average running position and 79.6 driver rating. Truth be told, Jamie have been pretty up down this season on this type track. He finished 19th and 21st at Charlotte and Cali. While wrecking out at Atlanta. However he also had some decent results at Texas, Kansas and Vegas. From career point of view, he have held an 19.4 average finish with 4 career Top 10s. His last top 10 was in 2008 back with RFR. Even though he have finished either 12th and 14th in 4 of the past 6 races.
2-Brad Keselowski: Honestly I don't know what going on with Penske. They struggled at Dover and Pocono. Even before that they have looked a little off. Keselowski was pretty solid here in 2014 though. He posted finishes of 3rd and 8th. Over the past 4 races here, he have posted 8.8 average finish, 9.0 average start, 7.3 average running position, 23 laps led and 106.6 driver rating. Those are some really good numbers, but I don't expect him to back those results up. On similar tracks in 2015, he have compiled 5.4 average finish, 6.2 average start, 7.8 average running position, 83 laps led and 111.1 driver rating. Again great numbers, but I don't know what going on with Penske. Might be a good idea to avoid Brad to we know more.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon have started the 2015 off pretty shaky will some inconsistent results, but have came on wrong lately. Last season at Michigan he finished 22nd and 30th here. I believe he had a flat tire right after an pit stop in the June race. Which basically ended his day in 30th place. However don't be fooled though. In that race, he held an 13.0 average running position and completed 88% of all laps inside the top 15. Last season he posted an 26.0 average finish, 12.5 average start , 15.0 average running position, 2 laps led and 73.5 driver rating. The first thing that stands out is his average running position (15.0). In 2014 most of his ARP's were in the low to mid 20s. So it highly suggests that Dillon is very good at Michigan. In 2013, he had finishes of 11th and 14th. On similar tracks in 2015, Dillon have compiled 22.2 average finish, 19.0 average start, 22.7 average running position and 67.5 driver rating. He struggled for the most part on the high-speed Intermediate tracks in 2015. He did finish 16th at Cali though.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick have wheeled off 10 Top 2 finishes in 14 races this season. I smell another top 2 finish from him. Last season he finished 2nd in both races. Over the past 4 races at Michigan, he have posted 2.0 average finish (Series-best), 3.5 average start, 4.0 average running position (Series-best), 63 laps led and 127.4 driver rating. Those are some very elite numbers , however they look weak compared his stats on the high-speed Intermediate tracks in 2015. Minus Charlotte, he have compiled 1.8 average finish, 6.0 average start, 3.2 average running position, 441 laps led and 132.4 driver rating. He pretty much been unstoppable this season on this type track. Even though he only have one win to show for at Vegas. In 28 career starts, he have held 13.0 average finish with 12 Top 10s and 23 Top 20s. Including 7 of the past 9 races ending inside the top 15. With 5 of those 7 results ending inside the top 2.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey wasn't anything special at Pocono and finished decent in 13th. He never really contended and I didn't think he would either. At Michigan I expect him to be a heavy contender though. Last season he posted finishes of 16th and 7th. Over the past 3 Michigan races, he posted an 9.3 average finish, 19.7 average start, 15.0 average running position, and 88.6 driver rating. Before this nice stench of races at Michigan, he finished worse than 30th in 2 of his 3 first starts with HMS. Looking at his 2015 numbers, he been pretty good overall on the high-speed intermediate tracks. In 6 races, he have compiled an 14.2 average finish, 11.8 average start, 10.7 average running position and 96.7 driver rating. Really haven't had a bad race yet, but haven't had a great one either though.
10-Danica Patrick: I know some of you are still recovering from the Danica-effect of Pocono. However don't take her out of your lineup yet! Last season she posted finishes of 18th and 17th. Going back to her debut in June 2013, she have knocked off 3 finishes of 18th or better in 4 starts. Michigan is arguably her racetrack on NSCS schedule. Honestly I think some of her success at Michigan is helped by the horsepower she have under the hood. On similar tracks in 2015, she have compiled 21.2 average finish with 21.8 average running position and 64.8 driver rating. I would expect another top 20 from Danica this weekend.
11-Denny Hamlin: The JGR cars have shown significant improvements, but it clear they're still few steps behind the Hendrick engines. Last season Hamlin posted 7th and 29th. Honestly Denny have struggled pretty bad here since winning 2 of 3 in 2010 to 2011 races. His 7th last August was his first top 10 since his win in 2011. On Intermediate tracks in 2015, he have compiled 21.8 average finish, 10.8 average start, 10.8 average running position, 123 laps led and 95.6 driver rating. In 14 races in 2015, Hamlin have 7 Top 10s and 7 finishes worse than 20th. Pretty inconsistent overall, so I would wait on using Hamlin.
16-Greg Biffle: How in the world did Biffle finish 12th at Pocono? I wrote him when he was running in the middle-20s with 50 laps to go. At Michigan, Biffle could be a fine fantasy play. Over his past 6 races here, he have knocked off 5 Top 10s. Including in 2 of his 3 past starts. It doesn't hurt he have some momentum lately either. He have wheeled off 4 straight Top 15 finishes. Any reliability from a RFR driver in 2015 is a great sign. His numbers overall this season doesn't impress me, but this is a very good track for him. I don't hate taking a shot in the dark.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch had his worst overall performance of the 2015 season, but had his best finish of 9th. I don't really like him or any JGR driver not named Matt Kenseth. Since his win in 2011, he have finished worse than 30th in 4 of his past 6 starts. So pretty similar to teammate Denny Hamlin. Honestly it tough to get a good read on Busch since he haven't have much value with limited season data. He been pretty average over his entire career at best.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards find new ways to finish outside the top 10 each week, doesn't he? I wouldn't expect anything less this weekend at Michigan. Even though this is considered one of Edwards best racetracks on the schedule! Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 16.0 average finish, 11.3 average start, 16.0 average running position, 16 laps led and 82.0 driver rating. He struggled in 2014 with finishing 23rd (twice). Before that? He knocked off 13 Top 12 finishes in 14 races. Including 11 Top 10s in that 14-race span. On similar tracks, he have compiled 16.3 average finish, 9.7 average start, 12.2 average running position, 40 laps led and 92.2 driver rating.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is probably the only JGR driver I trust at Michigan. He haven't been anything special since JGR, but has shown the most consistency though. Last August he finished 38th (-30 Laps). Before that? He finished 15th or better in his first starts with JGR. None of his performances have stoodout like with RFR. His best race was his debut in June 2013 with Gibbs. He finished 8th in that race. He been stout throughout his career. In 31 career starts, MK have held 10.9 average finish with 12 Top 5 and 18 Top 10s. More impressively he 29 Top 20s in those 31 races. This season he been decent on similar tracks in 2015. MK have compiled 13.0 average finish, 13.5 average start, 10.8 average running position, 81 laps led and 94.5 driver rating. The race that stands out is Cali where he had the race won until a late caution. Ironically it also the most comparable racetrack to Michigan. Got to count for something, right?
22-Joey Logano: To be honest, I am not sure what to expect from him. He was real strong last season. He posted finishes of 3rd and 9th. In 2013, he posted finishes of 9th and 1st. So that averages out to an 5.5 average finish over the past 4 races here. More noticeably he had an series-best 4.8 average running position and the most laps led (187). On similar tracks this season? He have compiled 7.2 average finish, 4.2 average start, 6.8 average running position, 196 laps led and 109.6 driver rating.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon was on pace to have best race of the 2015 season and then his day went south at Pocono. Last season he posted finishes of 1st and 6th. However he have struggled at this track lately. 5 Of his past 9 races have ended 17th or worse. Not to mention, Gordon have struggled to produce good finishes on high-speed intermediate tracks. He have compiled 15.8 average finish, 14.0 average start, 13.5 average running position, and 86.3 driver rating. Those numbers are considered weak compared to his teammates. I would pass on Gordon probably.
27-Paul Menard: Remenber what I said about Menard being inconsistent after the first 12 races? There are tracks Menard seems to run well at and Michigan is one of them lately. Last season he swept the top 5. More impressively he have knocked off 3 straight Top 5 at this track. All three races ended in 4th place! This is by far Menard's best racetrack by far. Thinking back to Cali, he finished 4th in that race as well. See a trend? He been strong this season on Intermediate racetracks. Unfortunately the results are very misleading. Several races he ran inside (or close to) the top 5, but got screw in the end. Still good numbers: 17.0 average finish with 14.5 average running position and 85.3 driver rating. I am very high on him this week!
41-Kurt Busch: Busch is someone who could win on Sunday. He was real strong earlier this season at California. He had the car to beat before a late caution, but had to settle for 3rd. He had a pair of strong performances last season at Michigan. Finished 13th last June. He finished 31st in August. However he was competitively running top 10 before hitting the wall. Looking at his track record, he haven't been a standout. In 28 career starts, he have held an 21.2 average finish with 9 Top 10s and 14 Top 20s. Including 2 wins and 4 Top 5 finishes.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is starting to hit a groove. Actually both of the CGR cars. Honestly I didn't think either were overly good at Pocono until late in the race. Larson looking to extend his top 10 streak to a season-high 3 straight Top 10s. Last season he posted results of 8th and 43rd at Michigan. He was on pace to another respectable finish last August until he wrecked. He been okay this season on high-speed Intermediate tracks. Larson have compiled 20.8 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 85.6 driver rating. He could be a nice option this weekend.
48-Jimmie Johnson: I am not sure what to expect from Johnson. He could make a great option, but he have shown real inconsistency at Michigan. Finished 9th and 1st last season. Before that? He finished 4 of his previous 6 races outside the top 25. On the flip side, he been the best driver on this type track. He have wins at Vegas, Texas and Kansas. Wrecked out at Atlanta and Charlotte though. He finished inside the top 10 at Fontana. The 48 team seems to be in boom or bust mode lately. They're obviously being more aggressive with their setups.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex have been on hot recently and doesn't look to slow at Michigan. This is another high-speed intermediate racetrack and he been one of the better drivers all season long. He have compiled 6.5 average finish with 6.8 average running position and 113.7 driver rating. Even though he have struggled at Michigan, I expect him to be strong once again. I get the feeling it doesn't matter the racetrack for Truex.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr disappointed at Pocono, but he won't at Michigan. I always have considered this Dale's best track outside of Daytona and Talladega. He have knocked off 4 finishes of 7th or better in his past 6 races. Including last season finishes of 5th and 7th. Looking at results in 2015, he been one of the best drivers on this type track. He have compiled an 3.7 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 110.2 driver rating in 6 races on high-speed intermediate racetracks this season.
*All stats from DriverAverages and FantasyRacingCheatSheet
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
