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After an off-week the NSCS head back to Sonoma Raceway in Southern California. This is the 16th race of season. This is usually a place where underdog drivers will have their best chance at stealing a spot in the chase. This is the first of two road courses of the 2015 schedule. Sonoma in the more technical racetrack of two which rewards drivers who can race the track properly. Honestly tough place to make fantasy pick most times. Over past two seasons here only 2 drivers (Edwards and Gordon) have scored Top 5 finishes both times. However 7 drivers have scored Top 10 finishes in both of those races.
The key to success this weekend will be building your fantasy lineup based on the road courses studs. Not every week do we see underdogs such as AJ Dinger and Clint Bowyer labeled as favorites. We need to take advantage of that.
*Also remember practice is scheduled before qualifying, so that should be huge in some format. Let get started!
1-Jamie McMurray: JMac is one of the most underrated fantasy options on the road courses. He finished 4th last season at Sonoma after starting on the pole. In 2013, he also started on the pole but finished 25th in that race after being forced to pit late in that event. However he been one of the best drivers in the series based on overall performance over the past 2 seasons. He have compiled an 14.5 average finish (Tied for 14th-best), 1.0 average start (series-best), 11.5 average running position (Tied for 6th-best), 11 laps led and 101.1 driver rating (Tied for 7th-best). All across the board JMac is considered one of the best driver in the series here. He also have been one of the strongest drivers over the past 10 races of the 2015 season. In that span (since Martinsville), he holds the 2nd-best average finish and have wheeled have 9 Top 15 finishes in that span. Including 6 Top 10 finishes in those races. Histrionically speaking, JMac have been solid here throughout his career. He holds an 16.7 average finish with 6 Top 15 finishes in 12 career starts. He have started either 1st or 2nd in 2 of the past 3 races. In fact he have started 1st or 2nd in 5 of his past 9 races at Sonoma. He have finished inside the top 15 in 4 of the past 6 races at Sonoma as well.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski haven't fared well at Sonoma like he have at the Glenn. He been pretty hit or miss overall. Last season he finished 22nd here. Over the past 3 seasons, BK have compiled an 18.3 average finish, 14.7 average start, 20.7 average running position, 7 laps led and 74.9 driver rating. He have finishes of 21,22 and 12 in that span. I don't know why he struggled last season so bad on the road courses. He finished outside the top 20 in both races. Histrionically speaking, BK holds an 20.0 average finish with 2 top 12 finishes in 5 races. He actually had a few solid performances, but the results haven't been there overall. Honestly I don't know what to expect from Keselowski. I am not super high on him, but he could surprise with an solid finish. I am interested how he does in practice though.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon probably isn't gonna anything beyond an top 20 fantasy option, but there clearly worse options out there though. Last season he started 26th , finished 17th , had an 22.0 average running position and 65.3 driver rating. Those are far from impressive stats even though he was just a rookie last season. Dillon never been a good driver on road courses. Looking back to his NXS stats, he been pretty average and that probably being nice about it. Honestly I am probably won't use Dillon at all in any format. Especially with Daytona coming up next week.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick will probably have the best car this weekend and probably find a way to not win. That your typical Kevin Harvick race. Last season here at Sonoma that exactly have happened. He started from 6th, but quickly drove up to lead. He probably had the best car on the long run. Late in the race after the halfway point Harvick received damage from the Bowyer wrecked. If that didn't occur, he would have won this race or least finished inside the top 5 pretty easily. In that race, he finished 20th but held an 11.0 average running position and 101.6 driver rating. While leading the 3rd most laps (23) to only AJ Dinger and Carl Edwards. However Harvick been one of the most reliable fantasy options before last season. 3 of the past 4 races, he have knocked off finishes of 10th or better. Including an 3rd place finish in 2010. In 14 career races, he have held an 15.9 average finish with 8 top 15 finishes. Harvick is my early pick to win for those wondering at home.
5-Kasey Kahne: Most underrated driver on Road course? Probably Kasey Kahne. He been a stud lately at both Sonoma and the Glenn. I actually been pretty impressive. Last season he started 30th(!) , finished 6th , had an 15.0 average running position , and 96.7 driver rating. If Kahne can post those kind of numbers in a down season, then I am willing to bet he can repeat last season's performance. He actually have been one of the best drivers here recently since joining HMS. In that span (since 2012) , Kahne have an 8.7 average finish , 20.8 average finish, 11.7 average running position , and 99.4 driver rating. Looking at Kahne overall on the road course. Over the past 5 races combined (minus Glenn 2013), Kahne have an 10.2 average finish (5th-best in series), 22.0 average start, 13.8 average running position and 109.7 driver rating.
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick is probably pretty overrated here. No disrespect to her, but she haven't shown us much so far in her career on the road courses. Does that mean she won't be able to finish respectable? Of course not! However she did show significant improvement from year 1 to year 2 at Sonoma which is very encouraging. It pretty hard to get a good outlook on a driver who only have 2 starts under her belt. I would wait on practice to decide on Danica. An early guess would be Danica should be able to run anywhere in latter part of the top 20 or at worst top 25.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin have struggled to produce decent results on road course throughout his career at the Cup level. Last season he started 16th, finished 23rd, had an 15.0 average running position and 65.6 driver rating. He was not terrible the entire event, but he faded late in the race went pretty much ended any chance of scoring a respectable finish. However he have struggled here since 2010. In that span (5 races) , Hamlin have managed an 31.0 average finish, 13.0 average start, 21.8 average running position, and 69.7 driver rating. Hamlin been pretty hit or miss this season. In 15 races , he have finished 11th or better 8 times. However he have also finished outside the top 20 in 7 events. I really don't see much of upside with selecting Denny Hamlin honestly.
14-Tony Stewart: Smoke have struggled a lot at Sonoma over past few seasons. Over the past 5 races here, Smoke have compiled an 19.4 average finish, 16.6 average start, 15.2 average running position and 104.6 driver rating. Smoke was at one time considered a top fantasy option , but last season he was pretty much an average performer to say the least. He finished 19th , started 21st , had an 20.0 average running position and 66.2 driver rating. If I remember right he used a pit strategy to get track position, but was caught speeding on pit road late. Before that he rode around 20th most of that event. This season he have performed worse from an overall season vantage point. Honestly it hard seeing him suddenly turning it around. Especially after finishing poorly at Michigan and Pocono. Tracks that are considered his best on the schedule
15-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is probably one of the best road course racers in the field and not everyone realizes it. To be fair, a lot have to do with he isn't top name in Nascar. However I find it very hard to overlook Bowyer recent history here. Over the past 3 races here, Bowyer have compiled 5.3 average finish (2nd-best), 12.0 average start , 8.7 average finish (2nd-best), 76 laps led (series-best) and 114.6 driver rating (series-best). Still not convinced? Let look at his career at Sonoma , shall we? In 9 career starts, he holds an 9.2 average finish with 7 Top 10 finishes. In that span , he have wheeled off 5 Top 5 finishes in his past 8 starts. Before finishing 10th last season , he have knocked off 3 straight top 5 finishes. He probably should have finished top 5 last season though. Was running top 5, but got wrecked unfortunately. In addition to those impressive stats, he also have led in 4 of the previous 5 races at Sonoma. In fact , he have held the 4th-best driving rating over that same span.
16-Greg Biffle: If I told you Greg Biffle is one of the best road course racers , would you believe me? Well you should. Over the past 2 seasons , Biffle have been one of better performers at Sonoma. He have compiled 8.5 average finish , 11.5 average start, 11.0 average running position and 96.6 driver rating. Most people would probably assume it because Roush been down on power the past few seasons. Well hate to tell you Biff been a stud here well before RFR's performance went south. Over the past 4 races (minus 2011 race) , have produced an 7.8 average finish (4th-best) , 9.0 average start, 13.0 average running position (8th-best) , 0 laps led and 91.5 driver rating. Not good enough for you? Okay let dig a little deeper! Dating back to 2006 (9 races ago), Biff have finished 11th or better 7 times and have finished inside the top 10 in 6 of those races. How does that stack up to the competition? Only Jimmie Johnson , Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer have more Top 10s in that 9-race span. In 12 career starts , Biff holds an 13.8 average finish with 6 top 10 finishes. 9 of his 12 career races , Biff have finished 14th or better.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch is most likely out of chase contention , unless he win a few races between now and Richmond. Sonoma isn't a great racetrack for Rowdy. Over the past 6 races , he have finished 17th or worse in 5 of those races. Let look at the past 3 races though. He have compiled 25.7 average finish, 12.0 average start, 19.3 average running position, and 69.3 driver rating. Busch is much better at the Glenn. If I was gonna roll the dice with him it would be there. I am not very high on him this weekend. At best he probably have an top 15 fantasy outlook. Save him for another weekend folks.
19-Carl Edwards: I don't trust Edwards, but I find it very hard to overlook a driver with such a strong track record, too. So it really a personal call when it comes to Edwards this weekend. He have been a strong qualifier this season recently. He have qualified inside the top 5 in the past 3 races this season. At Sonoma he been one of the strongest performers here. Over the past 4 races here, Edwards have compiled an 7.0 average finish , 10.3 average start, 11.8 average running position, 26 laps led and 99.5 driver rating. In that 4-race span , Edwards have finishes of 1st , 3rd, 21st and 3rd. If we take out his 21st place finish in 2012 , he have an impressive 2.3 average finish. Only Jeff Gordon (2.0) average is better in those 3 races.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth actually been a decent fantasy option lately at Sonoma. He been nothing special over his career, but he is better than most realize though. Over the past 3 seaasons (minus last season race) , Kenseth have compiled 15.3 average finish , 16.0 average start, 14.3 average running position and 84.6 driver rating. Those aren't great numbers, but if he can knock within the top 15 then he should be a decent day for Kenseth. In 15 career races, Kenseth holds an 22.1 average finish with 5 Top 15 finishes. However only one of those have resulted inside the top 10. That was way back in 2008 with 8th place finish. I think it would be better to save Kenseth for another weekend. Least as of right now.
22-Joey Logano: Logano definitely isn't the most well-know fantasy option at the road courses, but he have proven he can be reliable at this place. Over the past 4 races at Sonoma, Logano have compiled an 10.8 average finish, 8.3 average start, 14.0 average running position, 18 laps led and 86.0 driver rating. Last season he finished 16th, but wasn't much better than that for the entire event. In that race he started 11th , finished 16th , had an 16.0 average running position , led 3 laps and had an 76.2 driver rating. Headed into practice on Friday , I have him ranked 10th in my personal set of rankings. Logano is someone to keep a eye on as the week progresses.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon will be a very popular fantasy option this weekend. For good reason too. The past two seasons, Jeff Gordon have finished 2nd in both races. He have compiled an 2.0 average finish , 12.5 average start , 10.5 average running position, 7 laps led and 112.5 driver rating. Those are stats that will make any fantasy option popular. However Gordon's track history makes him a fan favorite for the mass majority. Most recently , Gordon have finished 2nd in 3 of the past 4 races. The time he didn't? It was in 2013 where he finished 6th. Digging deeper into Gordon record , he have knocked off 18 Top 10 finishes in the past 20 races. Including 9 straight top 10 finishes in that span. However Gordon last wins came in 2004 and 2006 respectably. On the flip side, Gordon have struggled to finish races this season. So why it hard to imagine him not finishing up front. I could easily see him finding a way to disappoint.
27-Paul Menard: Menard doesn't have most impressive stats on the road courses, but I say he is pretty underrated in my personal opinion. Over the past 3 road course (minus last season race at The Glenn), Menard have compiled an 12.0 average finish, 10.7 average start, 15.3 average running position and 83.7 driver rating. Menard actually been a solid driver at Sonoma since joining RCR (he came to RCR in 2012). In his past 4 races at this track, he have compiled 14.0 average finish, 11.8 average start, 17.8 average running position and 77.9 driver rating. In that span, he have finished inside the top 20 in every race at Sonoma. Including a career-best of 5th last season. In 2013, he finished 14th at this track. Menard doesn't have the most upside, but there are probably much worse options to have though.
41-Kurt Busch: Busch is one of the most successful drivers at Sonoma. Over the past 3 seasons , he have compiled 6.3 average finish, 6.7 average start, 10.7 average running position, 17 laps led and 107.5 driver rating. In that span, he have finishes of 12,4 and 2. Busch had one of the strongest cars last season, but faded late in the event after a incident. Busch have been solid all season long. He is coming off a win at Michigan. Only once this season have he finished outside the top 15. I am willing to bet Busch finishes somewhere up front once again come Sunday. Won't be shocked to see him win back-to-back races. He have finished 12th or better in 5 straight races at Sonoma. Including a win in 2011 with Pesnke Racing.
47-AJ Dinger: AJ Dinger is probably the most likely underdog to win this weekend. Looking at his stats at Sonoma , they have been pretty impressive. Over the past 4 races here (minus last season 37th place finish), Dinger have compiled 10.5 average finish , 14.8 average start, 18.3 average running position and 87.5 driver rating. In that span of races he had finishes of 9th , 13th , 13th and 7th. He probably should won last season's race here though. Dinger led a race-high 35 laps of possible 110. However I believe Dale Jr got a little too aggressive and sent Dinger off the course and damaging his car. Which pretty much ended his chance of winning. However he did show back up later last season and won at the Glenn. On the flip side, Dinger may be a sitting duck if Ryan Newman get his hands on him. Remember Pocono? Yeah I am sure Newman would love to put him in the wall at one of his best track. Kinda like Dinger did to Newman at one of his best tracks. Of course we cannot predict things like that. So I am solely just making a bold prediction at this point.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson in my opinion is one of the best road course racers in Nascar. I don't know why, but most people don't truly understand how good Johnson is. Over the past 3 seasons , he have compiled an 7.0 average finish, 14.7 average start, 7.3 average running position and 109.8 driver rating. In that span Johnson ranked 4th in average finish , 1st in average running position and 4th in driver rating. Need more convincing? Over the past 6 races at Sonoma , Johnson have compiled an 5.5 average finish (2nd-best) , 8.2 average running position (series-best) and 114.5 driver rating (series-best). It pretty hard to ignore Johnson's impressive Sonoma stats. He will be greatly undervalued this week, which means it could be a great week to scoop up Johnson and employ in all formats.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex have been one of the better drivers here recently. Last season he started 18th , finished 15th, had 19.0 average running position and 82.4 driver rating. If I remember correcetly Truex had a flat tire to start off the race went pretty much put him behind most of the race. Even though he had a car probably of running top 10 though. Back in 2013, he won this race. He started 14th , finished 1st, led 51 laps , had an 6.0 average running position and 144.0 driver rating. That win actually caught me off guard because he struggled all weekend and didn't even look like a top 10 guy. Last few seasons that been the case with Sonoma with the eventually race winner. Not sure why though. I have very high hopes for Martin Truex Jr. I would take a shot with him as he is considered one of the best fantasy options in the field right now.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr drove like a madman last season at Sonoma. I am sure it was not intentionally, but he definitely ruffled a few trees on his way his 3rd place finish. This was his breakout race in my opinion. Looking at his career numbers , Dale Jr only have 7 Top 15 finishes in 15 races. Even though last season was his first top 5 (and Top 10) effort here. Honestly I still don't think Dale is a great fantasy option on the road courses, but I don't see any reason why he cannot run well this weekend. I have him penciled in as a top 15 option headed into Friday practices.
**All stats are from Driveraverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Remember to check out Nascar Behind The Wall! Excellent site for race previews , race schedules , entry lists,etc.
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
