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Sonoma is in my opinion one of the toughest tracks to make fantasy picks for. Not because of the lack of fantasy options to choose from. But from how races usually play out at a track such as Sonoma. Road courses in general are headaches. There several ways this Sunday race could play out, but I think the toughest one will be who have track position late? That is the key question that will need to be answered. Whoever have track position late will lately find themselves in victory lane. With this season current rules package, I think it will be more important than ever.
A:
1. Jeff Gordon - Without question I think Jeff Gordon is the top option in this tier this week. I don't know if he will win, but he definitely bring a lot to the table. His 9 Top 10 finishes makes him a reliable fantasy option from a track history point of view. Something I think is very important to take into consideration at these type of tracks. Not to mention, he posted solid practices on Friday. He was 6th and 15th respectably. It helps that Gordon is in top-notch equipment. I think that aspect of the game is a lot of times overlooked. Sonoma is the tougher of the two road courses, so having solid equipment is probably a double-plus in my book.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson have been one of the strongest drivers at Sonoma over the past few seasons. He have evolved into one of the best road racers in the series. I feel like more people are starting to respect Johnson as a elite driver at Sonoma, but he still overlooked by too many. He was good in practice on Friday. I wouldn't call him great, but he rarely is on the road courses. Johnson usually don't show his hand until the race. Honestly I don't know why, but he will find his way into the top 5 when the checkers waves. I would rather save him for another day, but I am not against rolling the dice with him this weekend.
My Overall Rankings: 3rd
3. Kevin Harvick - Harvick put up a strong case for the top 2 spots , but Johnson and Gordon track records were too much for him to override them. Don't worry though, I am still very high on Kevin Harvick. He was very strong in pair of practices on Friday. If we were comparing Harvick to Johnson or Gordon based on practice, then Harvick would easily be ranked above them. However the overall rankings at Timerssports are based on several categories. Honestly I am willing to bet Harvick would have the car to beat heading into Sunday's race, if he didn't qualified poorly. Last June he was the man to beat until some bad luck crossed him late in the race. If bad luck don't strike again, then Harvick just might find himself back in victory lane.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
4. Kyle Busch - After the top 3 drivers, it pretty much a guessing game. I like Busch this weekend, but not sure if he can win though. He was fastest in final practice and looked solid in the first practice. Busch knows how to get around Sonoma as he is a former winner at this track. However his recent track record doesn't look too promising though. I think Busch have the potential to run well, but I think he need help to find victory. There probably a lot worse options to have though. I have Busch across the line at 7th overall. Just keep in mind he gunning for wins now, since he chase hopes are pretty slim. I am higher on him than most though.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
5. Ryan Newman - Newman is pretty good at the road courses. I would call him great, but he more than capable of finishing inside the top 10 on Sunday. He had a solid pair of practices on Friday and didn't qualify too bad either. Honestly I have a feeling he might surprise people will a solid effort at Sonoma. Newman isn't really known for his road course skills, but he have been consistent at this venue throughout his career. If he finishes outside the top 15, then I would be very shocked. I have him as a top 10 fantasy option heading into Sunday's race. Even though he will probably run in the lower teen most of the day.
My Overall Ranking - 9th
Other Options - Keselowski (10th) , Logano(11th) , Kenseth (14th) , Dale Jr (16th) and Hamlin (17th)
B:
1. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer is my top option in this grouping tier. His track record, impressive practice sessions, solid starting position and above average equipment makes him the best driver among the competition. I don't know if he will win on Sunday, but he is locked as a top 5 play in most formats. In practice, I thought he was one of the best drivers overall. He showed speed in both sessions and seemed pretty happy with his car. Bowyer have 4 straight Top 10 finishes at Sonoma. Last season he had a top 5 car before wrecking. He is someone you can feel good about picking. Bowyer is a road course ace and this is his best racetrack in my opinion.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
2. AJ Dinger - I know a lot of people will disagree with Dinger not being number 1. Okay and that fair, right? He had one of the best cars in both road course races last season. He is starting on the pole for Sunday's race. He also looked pretty good in practice. Posted some real good lap times and team was pretty happy with the car. So there definitely plenty to like about him. However let look at it from a different view. Dinger have been pretty inconsistent in underfunded equipment this season. I don't care how good you are at a track, you will only go far as your equipment will take you. That might be his downfall. Even though I think he will lead a lot of laps. I say Dinger is a solid top 5 pick based on what I have seen this weekend.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
3. Kurt Busch - Busch will roll from 2nd on Sunday. I like him a lot heading into the race. He was pretty impressive in both practice sessions on Friday. He should easily contend for a top 5 finish. I wouldn't be shocked to see him win either though. Busch actually been one of the strongest performers at Sonoma dating back to 2011. His lone win came in 2011 with Penske, but he been able to contend for wins with smaller teams since then. Last season he should have probably finished inside the top 5, but he got caught up in the Bowyer-McMurray mess. That incident set him back quite a bit as he eventually finished 12th last June. I think it would be hard for him to finish outside the top 7 , unless something should happen to his car.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
4. Martin Truex Jr - Truex should make a solid fantasy option on Sunday. He will start from 12th, but I expect him to find his way to the front without much problems. He looked pretty good in both practices on Friday, unfortunately it would be hard to rank him over the guys above. I say Truex have a potential top 5 car for Sunday's race. However for now I have him ranked a bit lower than most would like. I am sure he will outrun my expectations, even though you never know about road courses. These races are well-known to screw up our fantasy lineups with late-race pit strategy. Keep that in mind if you play in allocation type-formats.
My Overall Ranking: 8th
5. Kyle Larson -Larson will roll off from 4th on Sunday. I would love to see him in victory lane, but I couldn't possibly feel confident enough to say he will have a realistic shot at winning at Sonoma. I really like what I saw from him last season, but that was only race. Larson probably have top 15 car for Sunday race with some track position early on that will help him. I wasn't overly impressed by him in practice, but I don't think practice is all too important at Sonoma. Like I said earlier track position will be the key to winning on Sunday. Truthfully I am not too high on Kyle Larson. Both the CGR cars have looked considerably off so far this weekend. Even though Larson qualified very well.
My Overall Ranking: 12th
Other Options - Kasey Kahne (13th) , Carl Edwards (15th) , Tony Stewart (18th) , Jamie McMurray (19th) and Greg Biffle (20th).
C:
1. David Gilliland - Gilliland didn't qualify all too well, but I am willing to bet he finishes somewhere near the top 20 on Sunday. Not sure how good he was in practice, since I didn't really track his lap times all too much. Based on his recent races on the road courses, I think he should make a solid top 25 play in most formats. In Yahoo fantasy racing , he is probably a fan-favorite among most players. Doesn't hurt he have ran near the top 25 all season long.
My Overall Ranking: 22nd
2. Danica Patrick - Patrick easily is the most trustworthy fantasy option in this tier. Not because she have been great on the road courses in her Cup career. Matter of fact, she haven't done that well. However she is in solid equipment and should have a leg up on the competition. Does that mean she will finish ahead? Nope. It will definitely be plus though. I have him just finishing behind the 38 car. She did qualify 21st if that means anything to anybody.
My Overall Ranking: 23rd
3. Michael McDowell - McDowell may be the the best kept secret this week. He was fast in every practice session and qualified 22nd. His equipment isn't great, but don't be fooled though. McDowell should be able to run with the top drivers in this tier. I was quite impressed by him in practice. Honestly I am not sure if he can finish any better than 20th, but the 95 team was pretty happy with the car after final practice. If the team is happy, then I am more than willing to take a shot in the dark.
My Overall Ranking: 24th
Email - MattAleza@yahoo.com
Twitter - @MattAleza
