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Preview -
1-JMac: JMac is having a down season (after making the chase last season) and needs some solid finishes between now and the cutoff race at Richmond. The Ganassi cars struggled a lot early on at the intermediate tracks, but have shown improvements in speed over the past 2 months. However, Larson have benefited much more than JMac. So I wouldn't expect anything beyond an middle teen finish from the #1 car. His results on the 1.5 mile racetracks this season would back that prediction up as well. On 1.5 mile intermediate tracks this season, JMac have compiled 19.0 average finish with 20.6 average running position and 65.5 driver rating. He did finish 9th last month at Michigan (using the same package), but he wasn't real competitive though. In that event, he only held 17.0 average running position and 80.0 driver rating. He also only completed 50% of the laps inside the top 15. With that said, he did finish 16th at Vegas earlier this season and that probably the most relevant race (similarity wise), since Kansas race is invalid because he got put in a hole with a penalty early on. Overall I wouldn't expect too much from JMac at Kentucky this weekend. Headed into practice, I would view him as a top 20 driver.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is coming off an win at Daytona and will have a equal shot at winning at Kentucky as well. Keselowski have an stellar track record at Kentucky under the old surface and probably should have won the last two seasons. But data in past seasons at Kentucky is not useful to us. As I view this as a whole new racetrack with the changes that was made. So we need to look at data on the 1.5 mile racetracks. On the 1.5 mile racetracks this season, he have compiled 8.6 average finish with 9.6 average running position and 99.2 driver rating. Two tracks that I want to focus-in on is Kansas and Vegas. Both tracks have the most similar surfaces, and to no surprise that the 2 car was strong in both races. He had the best car back at Vegas on the long run and he was solid at Kansas, until Denny Hamlin caused a big wreck. Also it seems like the Penske cars have found a lot more speed recently compared to earlier this season. Take Michigan for example. The Penske cars were arguably the strongest as an organization. Logano went to victory lane and Brad finished 4th. It so happens that Nascar is using the same low-downforce package again. Headed into practice, I view him as one of the drivers to beat. I wouldn't be shocked at all, if Keselowski knocked off back-to-back wins.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is having his best season of his young career, but he have shown more inconsistency as the season as progressed. However, he been at his best on the intermediate tracks, especially on the 1.5 mile tracks. On the 1.5 milers this season, he have compiled 10.6 average finish with 14.2 average running position and 83.7 driver rating. His best two finishes this season have been Vegas (5th) and Kansas (6th). Two tracks that have the most similar surface to Kentucky. We won't see a lot of fall-off in the lap times, much like we saw at Vegas and Kansas. The remaining 1.5 milers are venues where the lap times tend to drop-off pretty quick. Dillon also ran top 10 strong at Michigan (one of his favorite tracks), I note Michigan because as I mentioned earlier that we are using the same race package this weekend. I really like Dillon this weekend at Kentucky for many reasons, but the fact that he tested in May should give him an edge over the competition in my opinion. He's a top 15 driver headed into practice and will likely creep more toward the top 10 after we see some practice on Thursday.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick tested in May and he was reportedly fast (no surprise). Usually when you give a guy like Harvick a opportunity to get an advantage over the competition, then he makes you pay when the race comes around. Not to mention, Harvick have been awesome all season long on the 1.5 mile racetracks. On the 1.5 milers this season, he have compiled 5.4 average finish with 5.8 average running position and 113.2 driver rating. Harvick have been rock-strong this season on this type of racetrack and I cannot find a reason to think he won't be fast once again. He finished 2nd at Kansas to Kyle Busch and that is a similar surface and one of the most recent intermediate tracks as well. He also ran pretty good at Michigan, despite starting deep in the field. Not sure how much I would put into that race, since he never really contended until late in the race. However he eventually finished 5th in that race. Headed into the race, I view him as one of the favorites for obvious reasons and unless something crazy happen, I think he will have a great shot at finishing inside the top 5.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne is having a mixed season so far. He have bagged some quality up front finishes in recent races this season. However he also have posted some questionable finishes as well. He also have posted inconsistent results this season on the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks. He have compiled 15.8 average finish with 19.6 average running position and 68.6 driver rating. I can honestly say, I haven't seen one race this season on this type of track where Kahne have been a legit top 10 threat. Sure he have had two top 10 finishes at Texas and Vegas, but his performance doesn't lineup with the results when digging deeper into the data pool. Okay maybe the Las Vegas race, where he was the top 12 or 13 good in that race. He spent 96% of the race inside the top 15, but that where he ran for most of the event. Right around 11th-15th place range, he eventually made it into the top 10. But I wouldn't call him a top 10 driver in that event though. He finished 13th back at Michigan where the new low-downforce package was used. For what it worth, prior to finishing 30th at Daytona. He had 3 straight top 13 finishes at Pocono, Michigan and Sonoma. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 15 driver overall. He will have to show me something in practice in order for me to trust him.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is having a okay season I guess overall. He started the season off with winning the Daytona 500, but honestly he have done shit since then. In 17 races this season, he have posted 7 Top 10 finishes and 7 finishes of 20th or worse. His numbers on the 1.5 milers this season, doesn't exactly make me feel any better either. On 1.5 mile track this season, he have compiled 17.6 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 82.5 driver rating. Kansas is probably the race I am focusing in on the most at because of it surface and when it was ran. In that event, he actually was in pretty good shape with 30 laps to go. But then he got aggressive and went 4-wide on a restart. The results were exactly as you would expect. He ended his night in the garage. Overall, I don't really see much fantasy value with Hamlin. I view him as a top 15 fantasy option with potential to finish inside the top 10. I don't really see him doing much more than that. To me, A guy in his equipment should be a top 10 option with the potential to run top 5. So far this season, we have not seen that. Of course, the 11 team didn't really catch fire until second half of the year last season. So guess we will wait and see on him. But I don't have high hopes at the moment!
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse Jr is having a pretty good season so far out of the RFR camp and is coming off his 2nd top 5 finish of the season at Daytona. He been one of the biggest surprises (in my opinion) on the intermediate racetracks. I think his numbers would be a big surprise to the ''average'' fan out there. On 1.5 intermediate racetracks this season, he have compiled 13.2 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 85.1 driver rating. He also supports an 7.6 average starting position this season on the 1.5 milers as well. What stands out when, I look at this results on this of racetrack? He have finished 16th or better in all 5 1.5 milers races. 3 of 5 have ended inside the top 13 though. RFR still have work to do, but the 17 team is probably the closest to being where they want. I will put it simply as this: If you are looking for a quality fantasy sleeper who ''should'' finish top 15, then Ricky Stenhouse Jr should be your go-to fantasy option.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is having a great season, minus that stench of races where he couldn't finish a race to save his life. But I think that just some really back luck from Dover to Michigan. Over his past two races (Sonoma and Daytona), he have finished inside the top 10 finishes. Both of those finishes have came after the Nascar off-week. Maybe that was enough for him to reset and get refocus. Whatever the case is, he should be one of the more-popular picks this weekend at Kentucky. Rowdy have always been great at Kentucky and have more experience here than most do. But that may not matter much now, with this track being so different than before. He been pretty solid on the 1.5 milers overall. He have compiled 8.4 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 105.2 driver rating. Across the board, he ranked among the best in the series. Those numbers should be better, but he got hard into the wall at Charlotte late. He was running around 9th place when that happened. Two most important races, he have finished 4th at Vegas and won at Kansas. It should be noted that Martin Truex Jr dominated the Kansas race, but a penalty late allowed Busch to slip in for the victory. Even though Rowdy was top 5 strong all night long. And once Hamlin took it 4-wide and took out 4 very fast cars, I think it pretty much was set in stone who was gonna win that race. At Michigan, Busch was top 10 good until his engine went up in fires. Headed into the weekend, I view him as one of the heavy favorites. He have a history of running well at Kentucky and I think he will be one of the quickest to adopt to the new layout.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is having a great season so far and I think he going to be tough to beat in Saturday's race. Not only because the 19 car been fast all season long, but Carl loves this package. He didn't really flex much muscle at the Michigan race as I was expecting. But I think he will be a little better at Kentucky. JGR have been studs this season on this type of racetrack and I just don't see that changing. Edwards been very good on the 1.5 milers (no surprise). He have compiled 11.8 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 97.2 driver rating. His numbers should be better than that, but he have gotten misleading finishes in his two most recent outing (at Charlotte and Kansas). At Charlotte, he ran top 10 good (and made up into the top 5), but then was busted for speeding. Not once, but twice (back-to-back times). That pretty ended any shot he had at a solid finish. At Kansas, I thought he had a good car for that race. But he had a tire go down and never really got caught back up until very end of the race. By that time, he didn't have the time to drive up through the field. He finished around 11th place, but he could've been much better if he didn't have a tire go down. With all of that said, I think Edwards is least an top 10 driver headed into practice.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is coming off an disappointing Daytona race last Saturday night, after being involved in the ''big one''! Much like his JGR teammates, I expect him to be one of the drivers to beat at Kentucky. I think the big teams will be the favorites headed into the race, because they have the resources to figure out this new layout. Kenseth also been pretty good all season on the 1.5 milers. He have compiled 15.6 average finish with 10.2 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. His ARP and Driver rating lets us know that Kenseth been a solid driver all season, but his average finish position is a obvious indicator that he have gotten a few misleading finish, as it doesn't match his performance. He finished 19th and 37th at Vegas and Atlanta. But in his past 3 races on this type of track, he have finished 11th, 4th and 7th (Texas, Kansas and Charlotte). He probably had his best race at Kansas, where he had about the 3rd-best car (in my opinion). Thought Truex and Kyle Busch were a little better than him. I think you could add Kyle Larson to that mix as well, but he was just better than Kenseth on the short runs. 20 had the advantage on the long runs. Kenseth, believe it or not have led in 13 of 17 races this season. However 3 of those 4 races he haven't led have came in the last three races. I expect Kenseth to be least an top 10 driver headed into practice!
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney is having a fine rookie season, but have been an afterthought most weekends because of the year fellow rookie Chase Elliott is having. That's fine though, because Blaney is doing great himself with 12 Top 20 finishes and 6 Top 10 finishes after 17 races. However I have noticed a obvious trend with Blaney. Most of those top 20 finishes have came on track that don't see significant fall-off. While his 6 worst finishes (20th or worse) have came at Texas, Charlotte, Sonoma, Atlanta and Richmond. All 5 tracks usually see pretty good tire fall-off. So there is no accident that he have scored top 10 finishes at tracks like Kansas, Vegas, Phoenix and Pocono. And right off the bat, you should notice that two of his best runs this season was at Vegas and Kansas. Not only did he finish up front, but he ran very competitively inside the top 10 in both of those races. In those two races (Kansas and Vegas), he compiled 5.5 average finish with 7.5 (!) average running position and 101.0 driver rating. He also completed 99% of the laps inside the top 15. Take a guess how many drivers completed more laps inside the top 15 than Ryan Blaney? Zero (0). None! Add-in, he tested earlier this season here and you get a very solid fantasy option. I have some high hopes for Ryan Blaney.
22-Joey Logano: Remember just before the All-star (and several other times before that), when I said Joey Logano was gonna heat up and go on a hot streak? Yeah well this is the hot streak I was talking out! He been on fire since winning the All-star race. He finished 9th at Charlotte (even though he had a top 3 car for the race), and have knocked off 4 straight top 5 finishes since then. Including a dominating win at Michigan. Michigan is a important race because we are using the same low-downforce package as we did there. He also been a stud this season on the 1.5 mile tracks. On the 1.5 intermediate tracks this season, he have compiled 12.8 average finish with 7.6 average running position and 103.1 driver rating. If we take out the Kansas race (he finished poorly because of the Hamlin wreck), he have compiled 6.5 average finish with 6.8 average running position and 108.9 driver rating. The other race I been focusing on is Las Vegas and in that event, he probably had the 2nd or 3rd best car in that race. I say second-best car on the long runs to Brad Keselowski, I thought the 48 of Jimmie Johnson was better on the shorter runs though. Overall, I would say that Logano is the best all-around driver for this weekend's race. He have everything you want in a strong fantasy pick. Excellent qualifier, strong driver on this type of track, momentum and among other things. I view Logano as the favorite headed into practice!
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott have shown us all season long why is the next big thing in Nascar and the hype surrounding him haven't disappointed. He have progressed much faster than most of us expected him to. I expected him to have some struggles earlier adjusting to the cup competition, but he have had no problems with that. He been his best this season on the intermediate tracks in general and it was obvious from the start he would be a factor on this type of track. I think he struggle on other tracks more often though. He been solid all season at the 1.5 milers. Minus the Vegas race (he got involved in a wreck), he have compiled 7.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 89.7 driver rating. Pretty impressive numbers when you think that he is only a rookie driver. What Chase does so well is constantly improving throughout the race. He may not have a top 10 car start of the race, but him and his team will work onto until he does have a quality fast car. The Kansas race would be a great example of that. He ran outside of the top 10 most of the night, but the 24 team made good adjustments at the end and got him running inside the top 10 at the end. That what I am sort of expecting at Kentucky too.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is another driver who having a pretty good season and honestly most people are overlooking how consistent he have been this season. Which is a little surprising to me, as he is usually one of the first drivers we talk about in that category. He been good on the 1.5 mile intermediate track as well, but he getting overshadowed by teammate's Austin Dillon success though. On the 1.5 milers this season, he have compiled 14.2 average finish with 13.6 average running position and 80.4 driver rating. Pretty good numbers overall, since he typically runs and finish somewhere in the low to middle teens. Newman isn't a driver who will surprise, but he is a safe bet who will deliver quality results for your fantasy team though. If he take out Newman's 18th place finish at Daytona, he have finished 7th-12th place in 5 of his past 6 Sprint Cup Series races (dating back to Kansas). As I mentioned before, he is a pretty consistent driver. I expect an top 15 finish out of him at Kentucky!
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is having a great season so far and was on impressive streak of top 10 finishes, prior to Joey Logano sending him for a ride on the final lap at Daytona (While running around 4th place). Before Daytona, he had 10 straight top 10 finishes! Even with his 23rd place finish at Daytona that is only the 3rd time this season he haven't finished inside the top 10, which is pretty impressive. So as you can imagine, he been good on the intermediate tracks this season. And you would be right, as he have compiled 6.2 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 101.0 driver rating. Pretty solid numbers arcoss the board overall and in that span of races, he have not finished outside the top 10 this season. Only other driver to finish inside the top 10 at every 1.5 mile intermediate race this season? Teammate Kevin Harvick. Kurt was pretty good at Kansas, too. I thought he had one of the better cars in that event. I would say he was about the 5th or 6th-best car for that race from the eye test. Thought Truex, Kyle Busch, Kenseth and Larson were little better. I think him and Larson could be debated honestly. Larson was really strong on the short runs, but faded on the long runs. Headed into practice, I view Kurt as a top 10 fantasy pick as usual with potential to be more than that.
42-Kyle Larson: After struggling a lot early in the season, Larson have shown great potential since the start of May and realistically could make the chase if he keep running like he have been. To me, it goes back to the Kansas race in the first week of May. That was the first time this season, he showed he could run top 10 on the bread and butter (intermediate) tracks. Since that race, he have knocked off 6 straight Top 13 finishes. Including 3 Top 10 finishes in that span. He had only 4 Top 15 finishes in the first 11 races this season, which shows how poorly he ran early on in the season. There actually a couple things I like about Larson as a fantasy pick. Firstly, he is points racing so he will have extra motivation to finish out races strong. Ganassi will give him cars to contend for top 5s and top 10s, so it is reasonable to think he should be a solid bet to finish toward the front. Secondly, I thought Larson was one of the drivers who benefited from the low-downforce package at Michigan. He ran top 5 for most of the day and was probably the 3rd best car overall. There a lot to like about him, but one have to wonder when Larson is due for a bad race. Because let's be honest, he have a tendency to find bad luck. Just haven't seen that with him much lately, which is great. However at the same time, it is also worrisome too. Headed into practice, I view Larson as top 10 fantasy option with clear upside.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson have scored two wins this season, but he haven't been himself lately and I don't think many people realize that either. I was actually surprise to see that Johnson only have 7 Top 10 finishes this season after 17 races. And when digging deeper into the data pool, I guess I cannot be too shocked by that stat. As over the past 10 Sprint Cup races (dating back to Bristol), he have only produced two top 10 finishes and they were both 3rd place finishes. At Richmond and Charlotte. In fact, he have finished outside of the top 15 in 3 of his past 4 races this season. Maybe this is the weekend to get back on track? I wouldn't rule that out. He been strong on the 1.5 milers this season. He have compiled 5.6 average finish with 6.2 average running position and 113.4 driver rating. He been the best driver on this type of track (in my opinion) and the numbers are there to back it up, too. He only bad race, where he didn't contend for a top 5 finish was Kansas. However he was top 10 good at Kansas, until he had a penalty late and he couldn't drive up thorough the field after that happened. Otherwise he been a top 5 finisher in pretty much in the other 4 races. He finished top 4 at Vegas, Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte. He led a lot of laps at Vegas, but the Penske cars had his number on the long runs. But he wasn't too far behind them, as the 2 and 22 didn't really ever drive away from him. Johnson is one of the drivers you should have on your fantasy radar, as he is one of the few drivers who could legitimately win at Kentucky!
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr have been fast every single week, but almost every single week something goes wrong for him. At Daytona it was him getting involved in a wreck. No worries though, because the 78 car will be fast at Kentucky. He have had a bullet almost every time we go to an intermediate racetrack. On the 1.5 milers this season, he have compiled 7.8 average finish with 4.8 average running position and 123.8 driver rating. He been rock-solid, but often than not he finds ways to give races away. The first race that comes to mind was back at Kansas, where he dominated that race. He could not be touched on that night (much like Charlotte), but additional pit stop at the end cost him a dominating win. In fact, the 78 car have dominated 3 of 5 1.5 mile races this seasons. He dominated Texas, Kansas and Charlotte. He also led a portion of the Atlanta race at start of the season as well. Overall, Truex is one of the favorites headed into Kentucky. And he will likely lead some laps early, but find a way to get screwed out of a great finish. I view him as a top 10 guy with potential to run top 5 and beyond.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr just isn't having the season, he is wanting as he have now finished 21st or worse in every plate race this season. I honestly cannot remember the last time that happened with him, but he will try to rebound at Kentucky and get his season back on track. He should be a top 10 driver headed into practice, as he have performed pretty well on the 1.5 mile tracks. He have compiled 8.2 average finish with 10.6 average running position and 94.9 driver rating. He was better earlier in the season with top 10 finishes at Atlanta, Vegas and Texas. But have gotten finishes of 14th and 15th at Kansas and Charlotte. Honestly I don't hate Dale Jr as a fantasy pick at Kentucky, but I just not loving him though. Most weekends, he is nothing more than a top 10 fantasy option. There are some races, where he will have the potential to finish up inside the top 5. But I don't think this is one of those race weekend though. As I mentioned up above, Dale Jr is a top 10 driver for this weekend and unless he shows me something in practice, I doubt I will my opinion of that.
***All Stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Preview -
1-JMac: JMac is having a down season (after making the chase last season) and needs some solid finishes between now and the cutoff race at Richmond. The Ganassi cars struggled a lot early on at the intermediate tracks, but have shown improvements in speed over the past 2 months. However, Larson have benefited much more than JMac. So I wouldn't expect anything beyond an middle teen finish from the #1 car. His results on the 1.5 mile racetracks this season would back that prediction up as well. On 1.5 mile intermediate tracks this season, JMac have compiled 19.0 average finish with 20.6 average running position and 65.5 driver rating. He did finish 9th last month at Michigan (using the same package), but he wasn't real competitive though. In that event, he only held 17.0 average running position and 80.0 driver rating. He also only completed 50% of the laps inside the top 15. With that said, he did finish 16th at Vegas earlier this season and that probably the most relevant race (similarity wise), since Kansas race is invalid because he got put in a hole with a penalty early on. Overall I wouldn't expect too much from JMac at Kentucky this weekend. Headed into practice, I would view him as a top 20 driver.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is coming off an win at Daytona and will have a equal shot at winning at Kentucky as well. Keselowski have an stellar track record at Kentucky under the old surface and probably should have won the last two seasons. But data in past seasons at Kentucky is not useful to us. As I view this as a whole new racetrack with the changes that was made. So we need to look at data on the 1.5 mile racetracks. On the 1.5 mile racetracks this season, he have compiled 8.6 average finish with 9.6 average running position and 99.2 driver rating. Two tracks that I want to focus-in on is Kansas and Vegas. Both tracks have the most similar surfaces, and to no surprise that the 2 car was strong in both races. He had the best car back at Vegas on the long run and he was solid at Kansas, until Denny Hamlin caused a big wreck. Also it seems like the Penske cars have found a lot more speed recently compared to earlier this season. Take Michigan for example. The Penske cars were arguably the strongest as an organization. Logano went to victory lane and Brad finished 4th. It so happens that Nascar is using the same low-downforce package again. Headed into practice, I view him as one of the drivers to beat. I wouldn't be shocked at all, if Keselowski knocked off back-to-back wins.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is having his best season of his young career, but he have shown more inconsistency as the season as progressed. However, he been at his best on the intermediate tracks, especially on the 1.5 mile tracks. On the 1.5 milers this season, he have compiled 10.6 average finish with 14.2 average running position and 83.7 driver rating. His best two finishes this season have been Vegas (5th) and Kansas (6th). Two tracks that have the most similar surface to Kentucky. We won't see a lot of fall-off in the lap times, much like we saw at Vegas and Kansas. The remaining 1.5 milers are venues where the lap times tend to drop-off pretty quick. Dillon also ran top 10 strong at Michigan (one of his favorite tracks), I note Michigan because as I mentioned earlier that we are using the same race package this weekend. I really like Dillon this weekend at Kentucky for many reasons, but the fact that he tested in May should give him an edge over the competition in my opinion. He's a top 15 driver headed into practice and will likely creep more toward the top 10 after we see some practice on Thursday.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick tested in May and he was reportedly fast (no surprise). Usually when you give a guy like Harvick a opportunity to get an advantage over the competition, then he makes you pay when the race comes around. Not to mention, Harvick have been awesome all season long on the 1.5 mile racetracks. On the 1.5 milers this season, he have compiled 5.4 average finish with 5.8 average running position and 113.2 driver rating. Harvick have been rock-strong this season on this type of racetrack and I cannot find a reason to think he won't be fast once again. He finished 2nd at Kansas to Kyle Busch and that is a similar surface and one of the most recent intermediate tracks as well. He also ran pretty good at Michigan, despite starting deep in the field. Not sure how much I would put into that race, since he never really contended until late in the race. However he eventually finished 5th in that race. Headed into the race, I view him as one of the favorites for obvious reasons and unless something crazy happen, I think he will have a great shot at finishing inside the top 5.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne is having a mixed season so far. He have bagged some quality up front finishes in recent races this season. However he also have posted some questionable finishes as well. He also have posted inconsistent results this season on the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks. He have compiled 15.8 average finish with 19.6 average running position and 68.6 driver rating. I can honestly say, I haven't seen one race this season on this type of track where Kahne have been a legit top 10 threat. Sure he have had two top 10 finishes at Texas and Vegas, but his performance doesn't lineup with the results when digging deeper into the data pool. Okay maybe the Las Vegas race, where he was the top 12 or 13 good in that race. He spent 96% of the race inside the top 15, but that where he ran for most of the event. Right around 11th-15th place range, he eventually made it into the top 10. But I wouldn't call him a top 10 driver in that event though. He finished 13th back at Michigan where the new low-downforce package was used. For what it worth, prior to finishing 30th at Daytona. He had 3 straight top 13 finishes at Pocono, Michigan and Sonoma. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 15 driver overall. He will have to show me something in practice in order for me to trust him.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is having a okay season I guess overall. He started the season off with winning the Daytona 500, but honestly he have done shit since then. In 17 races this season, he have posted 7 Top 10 finishes and 7 finishes of 20th or worse. His numbers on the 1.5 milers this season, doesn't exactly make me feel any better either. On 1.5 mile track this season, he have compiled 17.6 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 82.5 driver rating. Kansas is probably the race I am focusing in on the most at because of it surface and when it was ran. In that event, he actually was in pretty good shape with 30 laps to go. But then he got aggressive and went 4-wide on a restart. The results were exactly as you would expect. He ended his night in the garage. Overall, I don't really see much fantasy value with Hamlin. I view him as a top 15 fantasy option with potential to finish inside the top 10. I don't really see him doing much more than that. To me, A guy in his equipment should be a top 10 option with the potential to run top 5. So far this season, we have not seen that. Of course, the 11 team didn't really catch fire until second half of the year last season. So guess we will wait and see on him. But I don't have high hopes at the moment!
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse Jr is having a pretty good season so far out of the RFR camp and is coming off his 2nd top 5 finish of the season at Daytona. He been one of the biggest surprises (in my opinion) on the intermediate racetracks. I think his numbers would be a big surprise to the ''average'' fan out there. On 1.5 intermediate racetracks this season, he have compiled 13.2 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 85.1 driver rating. He also supports an 7.6 average starting position this season on the 1.5 milers as well. What stands out when, I look at this results on this of racetrack? He have finished 16th or better in all 5 1.5 milers races. 3 of 5 have ended inside the top 13 though. RFR still have work to do, but the 17 team is probably the closest to being where they want. I will put it simply as this: If you are looking for a quality fantasy sleeper who ''should'' finish top 15, then Ricky Stenhouse Jr should be your go-to fantasy option.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is having a great season, minus that stench of races where he couldn't finish a race to save his life. But I think that just some really back luck from Dover to Michigan. Over his past two races (Sonoma and Daytona), he have finished inside the top 10 finishes. Both of those finishes have came after the Nascar off-week. Maybe that was enough for him to reset and get refocus. Whatever the case is, he should be one of the more-popular picks this weekend at Kentucky. Rowdy have always been great at Kentucky and have more experience here than most do. But that may not matter much now, with this track being so different than before. He been pretty solid on the 1.5 milers overall. He have compiled 8.4 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 105.2 driver rating. Across the board, he ranked among the best in the series. Those numbers should be better, but he got hard into the wall at Charlotte late. He was running around 9th place when that happened. Two most important races, he have finished 4th at Vegas and won at Kansas. It should be noted that Martin Truex Jr dominated the Kansas race, but a penalty late allowed Busch to slip in for the victory. Even though Rowdy was top 5 strong all night long. And once Hamlin took it 4-wide and took out 4 very fast cars, I think it pretty much was set in stone who was gonna win that race. At Michigan, Busch was top 10 good until his engine went up in fires. Headed into the weekend, I view him as one of the heavy favorites. He have a history of running well at Kentucky and I think he will be one of the quickest to adopt to the new layout.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is having a great season so far and I think he going to be tough to beat in Saturday's race. Not only because the 19 car been fast all season long, but Carl loves this package. He didn't really flex much muscle at the Michigan race as I was expecting. But I think he will be a little better at Kentucky. JGR have been studs this season on this type of racetrack and I just don't see that changing. Edwards been very good on the 1.5 milers (no surprise). He have compiled 11.8 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 97.2 driver rating. His numbers should be better than that, but he have gotten misleading finishes in his two most recent outing (at Charlotte and Kansas). At Charlotte, he ran top 10 good (and made up into the top 5), but then was busted for speeding. Not once, but twice (back-to-back times). That pretty ended any shot he had at a solid finish. At Kansas, I thought he had a good car for that race. But he had a tire go down and never really got caught back up until very end of the race. By that time, he didn't have the time to drive up through the field. He finished around 11th place, but he could've been much better if he didn't have a tire go down. With all of that said, I think Edwards is least an top 10 driver headed into practice.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is coming off an disappointing Daytona race last Saturday night, after being involved in the ''big one''! Much like his JGR teammates, I expect him to be one of the drivers to beat at Kentucky. I think the big teams will be the favorites headed into the race, because they have the resources to figure out this new layout. Kenseth also been pretty good all season on the 1.5 milers. He have compiled 15.6 average finish with 10.2 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. His ARP and Driver rating lets us know that Kenseth been a solid driver all season, but his average finish position is a obvious indicator that he have gotten a few misleading finish, as it doesn't match his performance. He finished 19th and 37th at Vegas and Atlanta. But in his past 3 races on this type of track, he have finished 11th, 4th and 7th (Texas, Kansas and Charlotte). He probably had his best race at Kansas, where he had about the 3rd-best car (in my opinion). Thought Truex and Kyle Busch were a little better than him. I think you could add Kyle Larson to that mix as well, but he was just better than Kenseth on the short runs. 20 had the advantage on the long runs. Kenseth, believe it or not have led in 13 of 17 races this season. However 3 of those 4 races he haven't led have came in the last three races. I expect Kenseth to be least an top 10 driver headed into practice!
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney is having a fine rookie season, but have been an afterthought most weekends because of the year fellow rookie Chase Elliott is having. That's fine though, because Blaney is doing great himself with 12 Top 20 finishes and 6 Top 10 finishes after 17 races. However I have noticed a obvious trend with Blaney. Most of those top 20 finishes have came on track that don't see significant fall-off. While his 6 worst finishes (20th or worse) have came at Texas, Charlotte, Sonoma, Atlanta and Richmond. All 5 tracks usually see pretty good tire fall-off. So there is no accident that he have scored top 10 finishes at tracks like Kansas, Vegas, Phoenix and Pocono. And right off the bat, you should notice that two of his best runs this season was at Vegas and Kansas. Not only did he finish up front, but he ran very competitively inside the top 10 in both of those races. In those two races (Kansas and Vegas), he compiled 5.5 average finish with 7.5 (!) average running position and 101.0 driver rating. He also completed 99% of the laps inside the top 15. Take a guess how many drivers completed more laps inside the top 15 than Ryan Blaney? Zero (0). None! Add-in, he tested earlier this season here and you get a very solid fantasy option. I have some high hopes for Ryan Blaney.
22-Joey Logano: Remember just before the All-star (and several other times before that), when I said Joey Logano was gonna heat up and go on a hot streak? Yeah well this is the hot streak I was talking out! He been on fire since winning the All-star race. He finished 9th at Charlotte (even though he had a top 3 car for the race), and have knocked off 4 straight top 5 finishes since then. Including a dominating win at Michigan. Michigan is a important race because we are using the same low-downforce package as we did there. He also been a stud this season on the 1.5 mile tracks. On the 1.5 intermediate tracks this season, he have compiled 12.8 average finish with 7.6 average running position and 103.1 driver rating. If we take out the Kansas race (he finished poorly because of the Hamlin wreck), he have compiled 6.5 average finish with 6.8 average running position and 108.9 driver rating. The other race I been focusing on is Las Vegas and in that event, he probably had the 2nd or 3rd best car in that race. I say second-best car on the long runs to Brad Keselowski, I thought the 48 of Jimmie Johnson was better on the shorter runs though. Overall, I would say that Logano is the best all-around driver for this weekend's race. He have everything you want in a strong fantasy pick. Excellent qualifier, strong driver on this type of track, momentum and among other things. I view Logano as the favorite headed into practice!
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott have shown us all season long why is the next big thing in Nascar and the hype surrounding him haven't disappointed. He have progressed much faster than most of us expected him to. I expected him to have some struggles earlier adjusting to the cup competition, but he have had no problems with that. He been his best this season on the intermediate tracks in general and it was obvious from the start he would be a factor on this type of track. I think he struggle on other tracks more often though. He been solid all season at the 1.5 milers. Minus the Vegas race (he got involved in a wreck), he have compiled 7.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 89.7 driver rating. Pretty impressive numbers when you think that he is only a rookie driver. What Chase does so well is constantly improving throughout the race. He may not have a top 10 car start of the race, but him and his team will work onto until he does have a quality fast car. The Kansas race would be a great example of that. He ran outside of the top 10 most of the night, but the 24 team made good adjustments at the end and got him running inside the top 10 at the end. That what I am sort of expecting at Kentucky too.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is another driver who having a pretty good season and honestly most people are overlooking how consistent he have been this season. Which is a little surprising to me, as he is usually one of the first drivers we talk about in that category. He been good on the 1.5 mile intermediate track as well, but he getting overshadowed by teammate's Austin Dillon success though. On the 1.5 milers this season, he have compiled 14.2 average finish with 13.6 average running position and 80.4 driver rating. Pretty good numbers overall, since he typically runs and finish somewhere in the low to middle teens. Newman isn't a driver who will surprise, but he is a safe bet who will deliver quality results for your fantasy team though. If he take out Newman's 18th place finish at Daytona, he have finished 7th-12th place in 5 of his past 6 Sprint Cup Series races (dating back to Kansas). As I mentioned before, he is a pretty consistent driver. I expect an top 15 finish out of him at Kentucky!
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is having a great season so far and was on impressive streak of top 10 finishes, prior to Joey Logano sending him for a ride on the final lap at Daytona (While running around 4th place). Before Daytona, he had 10 straight top 10 finishes! Even with his 23rd place finish at Daytona that is only the 3rd time this season he haven't finished inside the top 10, which is pretty impressive. So as you can imagine, he been good on the intermediate tracks this season. And you would be right, as he have compiled 6.2 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 101.0 driver rating. Pretty solid numbers arcoss the board overall and in that span of races, he have not finished outside the top 10 this season. Only other driver to finish inside the top 10 at every 1.5 mile intermediate race this season? Teammate Kevin Harvick. Kurt was pretty good at Kansas, too. I thought he had one of the better cars in that event. I would say he was about the 5th or 6th-best car for that race from the eye test. Thought Truex, Kyle Busch, Kenseth and Larson were little better. I think him and Larson could be debated honestly. Larson was really strong on the short runs, but faded on the long runs. Headed into practice, I view Kurt as a top 10 fantasy pick as usual with potential to be more than that.
42-Kyle Larson: After struggling a lot early in the season, Larson have shown great potential since the start of May and realistically could make the chase if he keep running like he have been. To me, it goes back to the Kansas race in the first week of May. That was the first time this season, he showed he could run top 10 on the bread and butter (intermediate) tracks. Since that race, he have knocked off 6 straight Top 13 finishes. Including 3 Top 10 finishes in that span. He had only 4 Top 15 finishes in the first 11 races this season, which shows how poorly he ran early on in the season. There actually a couple things I like about Larson as a fantasy pick. Firstly, he is points racing so he will have extra motivation to finish out races strong. Ganassi will give him cars to contend for top 5s and top 10s, so it is reasonable to think he should be a solid bet to finish toward the front. Secondly, I thought Larson was one of the drivers who benefited from the low-downforce package at Michigan. He ran top 5 for most of the day and was probably the 3rd best car overall. There a lot to like about him, but one have to wonder when Larson is due for a bad race. Because let's be honest, he have a tendency to find bad luck. Just haven't seen that with him much lately, which is great. However at the same time, it is also worrisome too. Headed into practice, I view Larson as top 10 fantasy option with clear upside.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson have scored two wins this season, but he haven't been himself lately and I don't think many people realize that either. I was actually surprise to see that Johnson only have 7 Top 10 finishes this season after 17 races. And when digging deeper into the data pool, I guess I cannot be too shocked by that stat. As over the past 10 Sprint Cup races (dating back to Bristol), he have only produced two top 10 finishes and they were both 3rd place finishes. At Richmond and Charlotte. In fact, he have finished outside of the top 15 in 3 of his past 4 races this season. Maybe this is the weekend to get back on track? I wouldn't rule that out. He been strong on the 1.5 milers this season. He have compiled 5.6 average finish with 6.2 average running position and 113.4 driver rating. He been the best driver on this type of track (in my opinion) and the numbers are there to back it up, too. He only bad race, where he didn't contend for a top 5 finish was Kansas. However he was top 10 good at Kansas, until he had a penalty late and he couldn't drive up thorough the field after that happened. Otherwise he been a top 5 finisher in pretty much in the other 4 races. He finished top 4 at Vegas, Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte. He led a lot of laps at Vegas, but the Penske cars had his number on the long runs. But he wasn't too far behind them, as the 2 and 22 didn't really ever drive away from him. Johnson is one of the drivers you should have on your fantasy radar, as he is one of the few drivers who could legitimately win at Kentucky!
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr have been fast every single week, but almost every single week something goes wrong for him. At Daytona it was him getting involved in a wreck. No worries though, because the 78 car will be fast at Kentucky. He have had a bullet almost every time we go to an intermediate racetrack. On the 1.5 milers this season, he have compiled 7.8 average finish with 4.8 average running position and 123.8 driver rating. He been rock-solid, but often than not he finds ways to give races away. The first race that comes to mind was back at Kansas, where he dominated that race. He could not be touched on that night (much like Charlotte), but additional pit stop at the end cost him a dominating win. In fact, the 78 car have dominated 3 of 5 1.5 mile races this seasons. He dominated Texas, Kansas and Charlotte. He also led a portion of the Atlanta race at start of the season as well. Overall, Truex is one of the favorites headed into Kentucky. And he will likely lead some laps early, but find a way to get screwed out of a great finish. I view him as a top 10 guy with potential to run top 5 and beyond.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr just isn't having the season, he is wanting as he have now finished 21st or worse in every plate race this season. I honestly cannot remember the last time that happened with him, but he will try to rebound at Kentucky and get his season back on track. He should be a top 10 driver headed into practice, as he have performed pretty well on the 1.5 mile tracks. He have compiled 8.2 average finish with 10.6 average running position and 94.9 driver rating. He was better earlier in the season with top 10 finishes at Atlanta, Vegas and Texas. But have gotten finishes of 14th and 15th at Kansas and Charlotte. Honestly I don't hate Dale Jr as a fantasy pick at Kentucky, but I just not loving him though. Most weekends, he is nothing more than a top 10 fantasy option. There are some races, where he will have the potential to finish up inside the top 5. But I don't think this is one of those race weekend though. As I mentioned up above, Dale Jr is a top 10 driver for this weekend and unless he shows me something in practice, I doubt I will my opinion of that.
***All Stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
