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Fantasy Nascar Update -
****My Overall Rankings are based on practice results, qualifying results, momentum,past track history, similar track stats,etc
A:
1. Kyle Busch - Rowdy is on quite a roll this weekend and he will start from the pole. Not only does he have a great car for Sunday's race, but he will start from the best starting spot possible. He spun in practice, but his team fixed him and had him bad fast in final practice on Friday afternoon. Rowdy have been a stud at Indy for awhile now and been on a absolute tore here recently. Since the 2012 season, he have finished 3 of 4 races inside the top 2. In fact, he have finished 10th or better in 6 straight races at Indy. Also he have turned things around lately. After finishing 30th or worse from Dover to Michigan, he have now knocked off 4 straight Top 12 finishes entering the weekend. His results so far this weekend, only further makes him the odds-on favorite to head to victory lane for the second straight season. With him starting on the pole at a track position comes first track, it almost impossible to rank anyone ahead of him leading up to the race. I think, he is beatable but it won't easy!
2. Kevin Harvick - Harvick have been fast every race weekend this season and this weekend at Indy is no different in my opinion. He was very good in practice and among the best overall. He didn't post any ten-lap averages in practice, but remember that this is a very big (2.5 mile in length) racetrack and putting down 10 laps is quite difficult in practice. However, his lap times were very good from what I saw out of him though. Also, he was pretty good back in Pocono and finished 5th place. And don't forget that Harvick dominated this race last season and probably should have won this race, if late cautions didn't occur. With that being said, I don't think he has a car that is capable of dominating. He will likely be able to stay with the Gibbs cars though and anyone who can stay with that group is in pretty great shape for Sunday. I have Harvick crossing the like anywhere from 2nd-6th place, depending how the race plays out late. It seems that Harvick loses spots late in races because of late cautions more often than not. Also I have a major concern with that pit crew and their abilities to performance. As we saw last week at New Hampshire, he overcome his pit crew's woes but it probably cost him an shot at the win.
3. Jimmie Johnson - Honestly, I thought Jimmie Johnson would have a great shot at the pole before qualifying on Saturday afternoon. He posted the fastest lap in the first round, but couldn't post a lap better than 13th fastest in the 2nd round. With that being said, he has a fast car this weekend. He was reportedly very fast in testing and seemed quite pleased with his car in practice. But the Hendrick bunch this season have struggled to qualify up front and Indy wasn't any difference. As Johnson led the HMS charge this week in qualifying. He also posted the 4th-best ten lap average in practice which is always nice to see at a large track like Indy. With all of that being said, there is a lot to dislike about him and this ranking might be a bit high when I explain. He have finished 6 straight races outside of the top 10, dating back to Talladega (in April). His last top 10 was an 3rd place run at Richmond. Also Johnson have finished 4 of last 6 races at Indy outside of the top 13. Want some encouraging news about his recent Indy finishes? He have developed an trend: back-back top 2 finishes in 2008-2009 seasons, followed that up with 19th and 22nd place finishes in 2010 and 2011, followed by another pair of top 2 finishes in 2012 and 2013, 15th and 14th place finishes in 2014 and 2015. So if the trend continues for the 48 team, then he is due for a great finish. Also I feel like Johnson is due for a breakthrough finish this season, after all of those non-top 10 finishes lately.
4. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski once again (much like the last several races) has a very fast racecar and will be a heavy factor this weekend. I don't think he is quite as good as the Gibbs cars or Harvick, but I think he is apart of the next wave of drivers inside the top 10. I really do like him this weekend because of his momentum entering the weekend (minus a poor New Hampshire finish). However, he have never finished better than 9th place. With that being said, all of his best performance at this track have occurred when he started deep in the field. I can honestly say that this is one of the better cars he have had at Indy. So I think it is reasonable to think that he will breakthrough and possibly score his first top 5 finish, or at worst a new career-high finish at this racetrack.
5. Denny Hamlin - Hard to say what to expect of Hamlin, I really do like the speed he have shown this weekend. He was fast in both practices on Friday and posted the best-Ten lap average in final practice and qualified 4th place on Saturday afternoon. However, I still do consider him as the weak link of this organization and a the one driver who has the highest possibility to have a poor finish. But he seems to really like this racetrack and the JGR cars have been bad fast since unloading. At Indy, he have finished 3 of the past 4 Indy races inside the top 6. Including back-to-back finishes inside the top 5. Honestly, I feel like Hamlin will be motivated to perform well this week and going forward. I feel like JGR have regained firm control of the competition and Hamlin is also starting to run better. Good new for anyone considering him this week, he has a fast car too!
Also Consider - Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano and Kurt Busch
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Edwards will start from the 2nd starting position and has a very fast racecar, he arguably has the car to beat. I don't think there is too much of a difference between him and teammate Kyle Busch. I think Busch is a little better, but I don't think it will matter too much since I expect him to be able to stay with him on Sunday. There is quite a lot to like about Edwards this weekend, despite coming off an 20th place finish last Sunday at New Hampshire. Firstly, Edwards have finished 4 of the past 6 Sprint Cup races inside the top 8. More importantly, he have a good track record this season of taking good qualifying efforts and turning them into solid finishes. In fact, 11 times this season, he have started inside the top 5. With 9 of those 12 races ending inside the top 8 this season. Pretty good, don't you think? He also have started on the front row in 5 races this season and 4 of those 5 have ended inside the top 7 and 3 of those races have ended inside the top 4. Like I said, he been pretty good at translating good qualifying results into finishes.
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr is coming off a very strong New Hampshire race, where he failed to secure an deserving finish in the end. That have the trend of Truex's season and his career. Close, but no cigar. He will once again be an contender this weekend at the brickyard. I wouldn't call him a favorite by any means, but he has that Toyota power I have spoke of so much in this post already. He isn't an ''actual'' JGR car, but he is heavily backed by them. So no surprise he has some speed this weekend. Truex ran top 10 good last season here and ended up finishing 4th. As I mention already, I think Truex will be good in Sunday's race. However my concern remains weather or not, he can finish out a race up front. He haven't really done that since his Charlotte's win. Until he does, I am not as high on him as I should be. Headed into the race, I have him as about 10th place guy or so.
3. Ryan Newman - Ryan Newman looked pretty good on Friday in practice and qualified probably even better than that in the 6th position. Typically when Ryan Newman looks this good practice, then he is in for a strong showing on raceday. Now only is this Ryan's home racetrack, he is also a former winner here. Newman has a habit of qualifying up front and translating them into solid top 15 finishes. In fact, Newman has an 9.5 average career starting position with 10 Top 14 finishes in 15 career starts. Newman also have plenty of momentum on his side headed into this race as well. Over the past 6 Sprint Cup Series races, he have been on a absolute roll. With 5 Top 12 finishes in that 6 race span, including 3 Top 8 finishes over his past 4 races alone. His lone non-top 8 finish in that span? 18th at Daytona. Newman is a reliable low teen fantasy option, who will bring top 10 upside. I think he has a good enough car to deliver a finish inside the top 10. However, realistically I would set my standards to a finish around 12th place or so though.
4. Tony Stewart - Tony Stewart enters the weekend with more momentum than we have ever seen out of him, since the 2012 season. He have confident in himself and his raceteam. Back at Pocono, he was just awesome and contended for a top 10 finish most of the event, until he found the wall and went to the garage early. So I am not surprised at all, that he have looked good this weekend at Indy. Entering the week, he has posted 4 Top 7 finishes over his past 5 races this season. Not only is Smoke finishing well, but he is also running well, too. Not something I could say about Tony last season or even if 2014. I don't think this could have been said in 2013 either. And I have said it over and over the last couple season that confidences is key in success for driver. Tony has that right now and I would recommend him using him this weekend in most fantasy formats.
5. Kyle Larson - This was a tough final spot for me because there are quite a few drivers who could have been listed here, but I went with the driver with the most potential. Kyle Larson has as much or more potential than most drivers in the field. And there quite a few things I like about him this weekend at Indy. First one would be him testing here recently (he was reportedly pretty fast) and him running in the Saturday's race. Also Larson haven't had a bad race here yet (small simple size though), with finishes of 6th and 9th. In practice, I couldn't get a good real read on Larson to be honest. It should be noted that I didn't pay much attention to him, but my fellow co-writer Garry Briggs said he definitely top 15 good. Larson also is starting up front, which have been a good sign for him for this season. Three times this season, Larson have started inside the top 10 and all three times he have finished 12th or better. Including an 9.0 average finish positon. On the negative side, he is coming of back-to-back races he have finished outside of the top 15. But something tells me, he will rebound and get least a quality low teen finish.
Other Options - Jamie Mac, Austin Dillon and Kasey Kahne
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott is definitely someone to have on your fantasy radar this weekend at Indy. He looked pretty darn good in practice and has top 10 potential with possible top 5 upside. He will roll off from the 15th starting position, but I think the driver of the No.24 car will move forward very quickly. My big concern is the slump that he is in right now, as he have finished worse than 20th in 4 straight races and worse than 30th in 3 straight races. If there is something positive to think about trend finishes, it is that he dominated that Pocono race and probably had the car to beat in that race. He ended up 4th that day for the record. I think Elliott will least finish inside the top 12 on Sunday and likely finish inside the top 10, too. Top 5? I think it definitely a possibility.
2. Jeff Gordon - Gordon makes his return this weekend and I will be honest, I am not sure if he will deliever the top tier result that everyone is expecting. So far, I have heard a lot of people excited that Gordon will get another chance to win the Brickyard. Not so fast folks! He have struggled a bit more than people might realized. He haven't been bad at all, but remember he is still trying to get a handle on this race package. Gordon wasn't exactly a major fan of last season's package, either. I think he will mainly run in the low to middle teens and finish somewhere around 15th or so. Maybe top 10, if they can improve his car enough. But I don't know, we will see I guess.
3. Ryan Blaney - Blaney have been okay this weekend I guess, I just was expecting more out of him honestly. I thought he would unload very fast and be a heavy contender for a solid top 10 or top 15 finish. But the speed haven't been there for the No.21 camp, even though I am sure that he will fin in the race and still get a solid teen finish out of the weekend. But his upside isn't as appealing to me, as it was earlier in the week.
Grouping Tier Rankings with overall ranking -
A:
1. Kyle Busch
2. Kevin Harvick
4. Jimmie Johnson
5. Brad Keselowski
6. Denny Hamlin
7. Matt Kenseth
9. Joey Logano
11. Kurt Busch
B:
3. Carl Edwards
8. Martin Truex Jr
10. Ryan Newman
12. Tony Stewart
13. Kyle Larson
15. Jamie Mac
17. Austin Dillon
18. Kasey Kahne
20. Paul Menard
21. Greg Biffle
C:
14. Chase Elliott
16. Jeff Gordon
19. Ryan Blaney
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Update -
****My Overall Rankings are based on practice results, qualifying results, momentum,past track history, similar track stats,etc
A:
1. Kyle Busch - Rowdy is on quite a roll this weekend and he will start from the pole. Not only does he have a great car for Sunday's race, but he will start from the best starting spot possible. He spun in practice, but his team fixed him and had him bad fast in final practice on Friday afternoon. Rowdy have been a stud at Indy for awhile now and been on a absolute tore here recently. Since the 2012 season, he have finished 3 of 4 races inside the top 2. In fact, he have finished 10th or better in 6 straight races at Indy. Also he have turned things around lately. After finishing 30th or worse from Dover to Michigan, he have now knocked off 4 straight Top 12 finishes entering the weekend. His results so far this weekend, only further makes him the odds-on favorite to head to victory lane for the second straight season. With him starting on the pole at a track position comes first track, it almost impossible to rank anyone ahead of him leading up to the race. I think, he is beatable but it won't easy!
2. Kevin Harvick - Harvick have been fast every race weekend this season and this weekend at Indy is no different in my opinion. He was very good in practice and among the best overall. He didn't post any ten-lap averages in practice, but remember that this is a very big (2.5 mile in length) racetrack and putting down 10 laps is quite difficult in practice. However, his lap times were very good from what I saw out of him though. Also, he was pretty good back in Pocono and finished 5th place. And don't forget that Harvick dominated this race last season and probably should have won this race, if late cautions didn't occur. With that being said, I don't think he has a car that is capable of dominating. He will likely be able to stay with the Gibbs cars though and anyone who can stay with that group is in pretty great shape for Sunday. I have Harvick crossing the like anywhere from 2nd-6th place, depending how the race plays out late. It seems that Harvick loses spots late in races because of late cautions more often than not. Also I have a major concern with that pit crew and their abilities to performance. As we saw last week at New Hampshire, he overcome his pit crew's woes but it probably cost him an shot at the win.
3. Jimmie Johnson - Honestly, I thought Jimmie Johnson would have a great shot at the pole before qualifying on Saturday afternoon. He posted the fastest lap in the first round, but couldn't post a lap better than 13th fastest in the 2nd round. With that being said, he has a fast car this weekend. He was reportedly very fast in testing and seemed quite pleased with his car in practice. But the Hendrick bunch this season have struggled to qualify up front and Indy wasn't any difference. As Johnson led the HMS charge this week in qualifying. He also posted the 4th-best ten lap average in practice which is always nice to see at a large track like Indy. With all of that being said, there is a lot to dislike about him and this ranking might be a bit high when I explain. He have finished 6 straight races outside of the top 10, dating back to Talladega (in April). His last top 10 was an 3rd place run at Richmond. Also Johnson have finished 4 of last 6 races at Indy outside of the top 13. Want some encouraging news about his recent Indy finishes? He have developed an trend: back-back top 2 finishes in 2008-2009 seasons, followed that up with 19th and 22nd place finishes in 2010 and 2011, followed by another pair of top 2 finishes in 2012 and 2013, 15th and 14th place finishes in 2014 and 2015. So if the trend continues for the 48 team, then he is due for a great finish. Also I feel like Johnson is due for a breakthrough finish this season, after all of those non-top 10 finishes lately.
4. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski once again (much like the last several races) has a very fast racecar and will be a heavy factor this weekend. I don't think he is quite as good as the Gibbs cars or Harvick, but I think he is apart of the next wave of drivers inside the top 10. I really do like him this weekend because of his momentum entering the weekend (minus a poor New Hampshire finish). However, he have never finished better than 9th place. With that being said, all of his best performance at this track have occurred when he started deep in the field. I can honestly say that this is one of the better cars he have had at Indy. So I think it is reasonable to think that he will breakthrough and possibly score his first top 5 finish, or at worst a new career-high finish at this racetrack.
5. Denny Hamlin - Hard to say what to expect of Hamlin, I really do like the speed he have shown this weekend. He was fast in both practices on Friday and posted the best-Ten lap average in final practice and qualified 4th place on Saturday afternoon. However, I still do consider him as the weak link of this organization and a the one driver who has the highest possibility to have a poor finish. But he seems to really like this racetrack and the JGR cars have been bad fast since unloading. At Indy, he have finished 3 of the past 4 Indy races inside the top 6. Including back-to-back finishes inside the top 5. Honestly, I feel like Hamlin will be motivated to perform well this week and going forward. I feel like JGR have regained firm control of the competition and Hamlin is also starting to run better. Good new for anyone considering him this week, he has a fast car too!
Also Consider - Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano and Kurt Busch
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Edwards will start from the 2nd starting position and has a very fast racecar, he arguably has the car to beat. I don't think there is too much of a difference between him and teammate Kyle Busch. I think Busch is a little better, but I don't think it will matter too much since I expect him to be able to stay with him on Sunday. There is quite a lot to like about Edwards this weekend, despite coming off an 20th place finish last Sunday at New Hampshire. Firstly, Edwards have finished 4 of the past 6 Sprint Cup races inside the top 8. More importantly, he have a good track record this season of taking good qualifying efforts and turning them into solid finishes. In fact, 11 times this season, he have started inside the top 5. With 9 of those 12 races ending inside the top 8 this season. Pretty good, don't you think? He also have started on the front row in 5 races this season and 4 of those 5 have ended inside the top 7 and 3 of those races have ended inside the top 4. Like I said, he been pretty good at translating good qualifying results into finishes.
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr is coming off a very strong New Hampshire race, where he failed to secure an deserving finish in the end. That have the trend of Truex's season and his career. Close, but no cigar. He will once again be an contender this weekend at the brickyard. I wouldn't call him a favorite by any means, but he has that Toyota power I have spoke of so much in this post already. He isn't an ''actual'' JGR car, but he is heavily backed by them. So no surprise he has some speed this weekend. Truex ran top 10 good last season here and ended up finishing 4th. As I mention already, I think Truex will be good in Sunday's race. However my concern remains weather or not, he can finish out a race up front. He haven't really done that since his Charlotte's win. Until he does, I am not as high on him as I should be. Headed into the race, I have him as about 10th place guy or so.
3. Ryan Newman - Ryan Newman looked pretty good on Friday in practice and qualified probably even better than that in the 6th position. Typically when Ryan Newman looks this good practice, then he is in for a strong showing on raceday. Now only is this Ryan's home racetrack, he is also a former winner here. Newman has a habit of qualifying up front and translating them into solid top 15 finishes. In fact, Newman has an 9.5 average career starting position with 10 Top 14 finishes in 15 career starts. Newman also have plenty of momentum on his side headed into this race as well. Over the past 6 Sprint Cup Series races, he have been on a absolute roll. With 5 Top 12 finishes in that 6 race span, including 3 Top 8 finishes over his past 4 races alone. His lone non-top 8 finish in that span? 18th at Daytona. Newman is a reliable low teen fantasy option, who will bring top 10 upside. I think he has a good enough car to deliver a finish inside the top 10. However, realistically I would set my standards to a finish around 12th place or so though.
4. Tony Stewart - Tony Stewart enters the weekend with more momentum than we have ever seen out of him, since the 2012 season. He have confident in himself and his raceteam. Back at Pocono, he was just awesome and contended for a top 10 finish most of the event, until he found the wall and went to the garage early. So I am not surprised at all, that he have looked good this weekend at Indy. Entering the week, he has posted 4 Top 7 finishes over his past 5 races this season. Not only is Smoke finishing well, but he is also running well, too. Not something I could say about Tony last season or even if 2014. I don't think this could have been said in 2013 either. And I have said it over and over the last couple season that confidences is key in success for driver. Tony has that right now and I would recommend him using him this weekend in most fantasy formats.
5. Kyle Larson - This was a tough final spot for me because there are quite a few drivers who could have been listed here, but I went with the driver with the most potential. Kyle Larson has as much or more potential than most drivers in the field. And there quite a few things I like about him this weekend at Indy. First one would be him testing here recently (he was reportedly pretty fast) and him running in the Saturday's race. Also Larson haven't had a bad race here yet (small simple size though), with finishes of 6th and 9th. In practice, I couldn't get a good real read on Larson to be honest. It should be noted that I didn't pay much attention to him, but my fellow co-writer Garry Briggs said he definitely top 15 good. Larson also is starting up front, which have been a good sign for him for this season. Three times this season, Larson have started inside the top 10 and all three times he have finished 12th or better. Including an 9.0 average finish positon. On the negative side, he is coming of back-to-back races he have finished outside of the top 15. But something tells me, he will rebound and get least a quality low teen finish.
Other Options - Jamie Mac, Austin Dillon and Kasey Kahne
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott is definitely someone to have on your fantasy radar this weekend at Indy. He looked pretty darn good in practice and has top 10 potential with possible top 5 upside. He will roll off from the 15th starting position, but I think the driver of the No.24 car will move forward very quickly. My big concern is the slump that he is in right now, as he have finished worse than 20th in 4 straight races and worse than 30th in 3 straight races. If there is something positive to think about trend finishes, it is that he dominated that Pocono race and probably had the car to beat in that race. He ended up 4th that day for the record. I think Elliott will least finish inside the top 12 on Sunday and likely finish inside the top 10, too. Top 5? I think it definitely a possibility.
2. Jeff Gordon - Gordon makes his return this weekend and I will be honest, I am not sure if he will deliever the top tier result that everyone is expecting. So far, I have heard a lot of people excited that Gordon will get another chance to win the Brickyard. Not so fast folks! He have struggled a bit more than people might realized. He haven't been bad at all, but remember he is still trying to get a handle on this race package. Gordon wasn't exactly a major fan of last season's package, either. I think he will mainly run in the low to middle teens and finish somewhere around 15th or so. Maybe top 10, if they can improve his car enough. But I don't know, we will see I guess.
3. Ryan Blaney - Blaney have been okay this weekend I guess, I just was expecting more out of him honestly. I thought he would unload very fast and be a heavy contender for a solid top 10 or top 15 finish. But the speed haven't been there for the No.21 camp, even though I am sure that he will fin in the race and still get a solid teen finish out of the weekend. But his upside isn't as appealing to me, as it was earlier in the week.
Grouping Tier Rankings with overall ranking -
A:
1. Kyle Busch
2. Kevin Harvick
4. Jimmie Johnson
5. Brad Keselowski
6. Denny Hamlin
7. Matt Kenseth
9. Joey Logano
11. Kurt Busch
B:
3. Carl Edwards
8. Martin Truex Jr
10. Ryan Newman
12. Tony Stewart
13. Kyle Larson
15. Jamie Mac
17. Austin Dillon
18. Kasey Kahne
20. Paul Menard
21. Greg Biffle
C:
14. Chase Elliott
16. Jeff Gordon
19. Ryan Blaney
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
