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Jeff Nathans wasn't available this weekend to write up the Fantasy Nascar Update, so you all are stuck with me. My role here on this site's have decreased over the past few years, so it definitely an honor to be able to get a chance to write up one of this site's most popular weekly articles. Anyways, we are at New Hampshire this weekend (more commonly known as Loudon). So many things go into this 301-mile race. First and foremost off the bat, track position will be key. I am not even kidding when I say that. If you lose track position, then you could be in a world of hurt. Which means you need a good pit selection and a good pit crew. Carl Edwards lost his pit selection for Sunday's race for anyone who haven't heard. I think that is so critical, even with him having one of the best pit crews in the garage. On top of that, pit road at Loudon isn't super big so that probably just threw another wrench into the mix of factors this weekend. Another factor, we must consider is fuel strategy. With all of these pit strategies being played out, I am sure there will some fuel strategies being mixed in there as well.
So far this weekend, I have thought the Joe Gibbs Racing Cars have stood out the most. They all have been extremely fast and seems to have the competition covered. I also noticed that the Hendrick bunch have more speed than I was expecting. They must've found something in testing last month, that have given them all a little bit of an edge. On the opposite end, I am little surprised the Roush cars haven't been a little better. I knew they would struggle on the shorter tracks, as Ricky Stenhouse Jr been on the record saying they have a lot of work to do still with their short-track program. But still, they been considerably off in my opinion. Also surprised that the RCR cars wasn't better in Saturday's practices.
Okay enough of me rambling on, here's the top 12 for Sunday's race
1. Kyle Busch - As I mention up above, the Joe Gibbs Cars all look very fast and Kyle Busch is the guy I have leading that charge. And really, there isn't just one thing I like about this week. He starting up front (from 2nd starting positon), so he have track position soon as the race starts. Then he have a great pit stall on a difficult pit road, and that in itself probably will give you an advantage. Also look at his track record at Loudon over the past 6 races here: 4 Top 2 finishes. Take a guess where he have finished the last 4 times, he have started 4th or better at New Hampshire? 1st or 2nd all 4 times. Starting up front have translated into strong results for Rowdy. In practice, he looked very fast as well. He was right there with quickest cars in both sessions. His lap times were on point with Harvick and Edwards who I consider to be the measuring sticks in the practice sessions. Rowdy posted the 4th-best ten lap average and 7th-fastest lap overall in final practice on Saturday afternoon
2. Carl Edwards - Edwards arguably had the best car in the two practice sessions on Saturday and I wouldn't be shocked at all, if he ended up going to victory lane. He have been nearly unstoppable this season on the short tracks. Dominated Richmond and Bristol and nearly won at Phoenix. So no surprise he looks impressive at Loudon so far. Many people in the garage on Saturday singled out the 19 car as the car to beat, after the first practice session. He wasn't quite as dominant in the final practice session in my opinion, but I think he will be tough to beat. When you compared him to rest of the competition, the 19 car looks to have a top 3 car. I think him losing his pit selection will hurt him on pit road, but he should be able to overcome that during race runs though. Another thing to like about him? He have finished 3 of the last 4 Cup races inside the top 6. If Kyle Busch doesn't go to victory lane, I think it will be because Carl Edwards.
3. Kevin Harvick - If Edwards had the best car on Saturday, then Kevin Harvick was following his footsteps. I personally don't think the top 3 or 4 drivers are really that far apart. Harvick looked awesome in both practice sessions on Saturday, on top of an solid 8th place starting position. He stood out to me on the long runs and I would go far as saying he looked like the best car. Hard to say, since not everyone posted 20-lap runs. But Harvick did that to start off final practice and he was very strong to me. Actually him and Matt Kenseth both started off with 20 laps runs and when you compare their laps times, you can see that Harvick sustained better on the long runs. With that being said, Matt probably has a top 5 car too. Throughout both practices, Harvick lap times were among the best. In fact in final practice, I thought he had the best overall car. Why is that important? Final practice have more similar track conditions to racetime. If anyone can beat the Gibbs cars this week, then I would directly look at Kevin Harvick. My concern is fuel strategy will become a factor late. If it doesn't, then fully expect the 4 car to be least a top 5 finisher.
4. Matt Kenseth - I felt like Matt Kenseth and the three drivers I have listed above were the best in practice on Saturday. And Kenseth may be the only one being overlooked this week and for what reason, I don't know. He have won twice in the past 5 races at New Hampshire and have been great on the short-flat tracks this season. In practice, I thought he was really solid and was a top 5 guy. He was probably a little better in the final session than the earlier one on Saturday. Kenseth also been running good as anyone lately it seems since start of May. He doesn't always go out and lead laps, but certainly have been one of the drivers to beat this weekend. I think when the green flag waves on Sunday afternoon, I believe we will see the No.20 car move towards the front. As I mentioned with up above, I thought the pit crews were going to be a major factor in who eventually goes to victory lane. Matt Kenseth have one of those speedy JGR crews to service his car. That may be his biggest asset this weekend, not to mention a pretty solid racecar.
5. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson will start from the pole in Sunday's race, but I don't think he will be able to stay there though. In fact, over the past 7 races here, only once have the race winner came from the first 5 starting positions. Not only that, but Johnson is in a major slump right now. He have only managed two top 10 finishes since the Texas race back in April. However, he does have a pretty good track record here. As he have finished 6 of last 8 Loudon races inside the top 7. In fact, Johnson have a pretty good history of taking good starting positions and translating them into solid finishes. In 28 career starts, he have started inside the top 10 in 15 races. 12 of 15 races have ended in 11th or better for Jimmie Johnson. In practice, I wouldn't say that Johnson had a bad car. Overall, I thought he was really good. I just didn't see the speed that the cars above show. I think him starting on from pole position will definitely help in this race, but I think he will eventually finish somewhere around 5th to 10th place. Probably what type of car, he has too.
6. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski have looked good at New Hampshire so far and made some gain in both practices on his car. I wouldn't call him a race-winning threat, but Keselowski have a history of running well here. Penske have been a force at this track over the past two season and I fully expect both of the Penske cars to run top 10 once again. Keselowski look to be the strong Penske Ford of the two in the practices on Saturday. I don't think Keselowski have the raw speed of the JGR cars, but he should be able to stay within striking distance of the top 5 though. With some pit strategy (the 2 team known for that), I wouldn't be shocked to see him up front leading some laps as well.
7. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin have been right there with his JGR teammates this weekend on the speed charts, but I don't trust him too much. Hamlin will roll off from inside the top 10 and should be able to have a shot at the top 5 at some point as well. I honestly cannot remember the last time the 11 car have looked this good in practice, I would say this is the best he have looked in 2016 leading up to a race. I really like Hamlin on Sunday, but there a part of me who knows how he haven't been consistent this season to warrant my trust. If he can keep his car up towards the front, then we can pretty much expect a solid top 10 out of him. Anything beyond that is gravy in my opinion, but we know he is very capable of that, too. He use to be a stud here and he maybe just that if the race plays out for him right.
8. Martin Truex Jr - I honestly haven't liked what I have seen from Truex at New Hampshire so far. He haven't been terrible, but at the same time I haven't been blown away. To make matters worse, he didn't post an 10-lap average in final practice which makes me a little concerned. Drivers who make a lot of short runs and don't stay on the track for long, may be struggling to get their cars right. This isn't always the case, but that might explain the lack of speed from the 78. When looking at his numbers this season, he have struggled far more at the short-flat racetracks than really any other type of track. And really, he haven't had any poor finishes. Just his performances have been a bit eye-opening in my opinion. Only an 11.5 average finish and 11.5 average running position at Phoenix and Richmond combined. He also haven't faired too well on the short-tracks in general. Wasn't overly competitive at Martinsville or Bristol. Those two tracks aren't really relevant to New Hampshire, but still my point is valid. Overall, I think Truex is a top 10 driver entering Sunday's race but I wouldn't be shocked if he drifted into the teens to be completely honest. I am just not loving him like I usually am.
9. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch is definitely under the radar this weekend at New Hampshire, his track record here of late is probably one of the main reasons for that though. Kurt have been a top 10 machine this season and only have three finishes on the year, worse than 10th place. One of those three came at Daytona a few weeks ago. Should be noted that, Logano had a part in that happening. So basically, he should be a lock for the top 10 on Sunday. In practice, I think that pretty much was the case as well. I don't think he was top 5 good or anything close to that. But he looked to be in the 8th-12th place range of drivers. If you are looking for safe and predictable bet, then go with Kurt Busch. I am not sure, if there is a better driver to roll with at the moment!
10. Joey Logano - This is probably little too low for Joey Logano this week, but honestly I felt like he struggled in practice more than Brad Keselowski. Now, he wasn't terrible by any means but he just doesn't have the speed that I was expecting from him. After wrecking last week, I thought for sure that the 22 team would come out swinging with a bad fast No.22 Ford, but that haven't been the case so far. Logano will have some work to do, if he wants to score his second win of the season. Entering Sunday's race, I have him as a top 10 driver with possible upside to grab a top 5 finish. However, his stats on the short flat racetracks aren't really that impressive either. He have finish much better than he have ran. Guess I am not loving Logano this week, in result he get a low ranking from me.
11. Kasey Kahne - Kasey Kahne is definitely someone to watch out for this week and he is looking really good so far. He qualified 11th and have been among the top 10 in both practices on Saturday. Kasey don't have the fastest car, but it been awhile since he have looked this good. Kasey and the 5 team have a history of screwing up fast cars, but I think this week will be different for him though. Headed into practice, I was expecting nothing better than an low or middle-teen finish. But I will be honest, I think that could be the worst-case possible for him. I may be overselling him a bit though. This is Kasey Kahne, we are talking about. The same driver who I have said in the past is the most overrated driver in Nascar history. Overall, I think there is a lot of potential with Kasey at New Hampshire. At same time, in back of mind there are always doubts about him. I would love a top 10 finish out of him, but realistically I have my standards for him set on a low-teen finish.
12. Tony Stewart - I think Tony Stewart is gonna have another good race weekend. He have looked good all weekend long and will roll off from the 12 starting position. Smoke also been pretty good lately as well. Add on a solid track record and you get a good top 15 fantasy option with some upside to finish in latter part of the top 10. I honestly don't have a lot to say about him overall. If Tony can keep his car on the lead lap (he should), then you should expect a finish between 9th-14th place. I don't see him finishing outside of that range, unless fuel mileage comes into play at the end.
Have a question?
Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
Thanks for reading,
Garry Briggs
Jeff Nathans wasn't available this weekend to write up the Fantasy Nascar Update, so you all are stuck with me. My role here on this site's have decreased over the past few years, so it definitely an honor to be able to get a chance to write up one of this site's most popular weekly articles. Anyways, we are at New Hampshire this weekend (more commonly known as Loudon). So many things go into this 301-mile race. First and foremost off the bat, track position will be key. I am not even kidding when I say that. If you lose track position, then you could be in a world of hurt. Which means you need a good pit selection and a good pit crew. Carl Edwards lost his pit selection for Sunday's race for anyone who haven't heard. I think that is so critical, even with him having one of the best pit crews in the garage. On top of that, pit road at Loudon isn't super big so that probably just threw another wrench into the mix of factors this weekend. Another factor, we must consider is fuel strategy. With all of these pit strategies being played out, I am sure there will some fuel strategies being mixed in there as well.
So far this weekend, I have thought the Joe Gibbs Racing Cars have stood out the most. They all have been extremely fast and seems to have the competition covered. I also noticed that the Hendrick bunch have more speed than I was expecting. They must've found something in testing last month, that have given them all a little bit of an edge. On the opposite end, I am little surprised the Roush cars haven't been a little better. I knew they would struggle on the shorter tracks, as Ricky Stenhouse Jr been on the record saying they have a lot of work to do still with their short-track program. But still, they been considerably off in my opinion. Also surprised that the RCR cars wasn't better in Saturday's practices.
Okay enough of me rambling on, here's the top 12 for Sunday's race
1. Kyle Busch - As I mention up above, the Joe Gibbs Cars all look very fast and Kyle Busch is the guy I have leading that charge. And really, there isn't just one thing I like about this week. He starting up front (from 2nd starting positon), so he have track position soon as the race starts. Then he have a great pit stall on a difficult pit road, and that in itself probably will give you an advantage. Also look at his track record at Loudon over the past 6 races here: 4 Top 2 finishes. Take a guess where he have finished the last 4 times, he have started 4th or better at New Hampshire? 1st or 2nd all 4 times. Starting up front have translated into strong results for Rowdy. In practice, he looked very fast as well. He was right there with quickest cars in both sessions. His lap times were on point with Harvick and Edwards who I consider to be the measuring sticks in the practice sessions. Rowdy posted the 4th-best ten lap average and 7th-fastest lap overall in final practice on Saturday afternoon
2. Carl Edwards - Edwards arguably had the best car in the two practice sessions on Saturday and I wouldn't be shocked at all, if he ended up going to victory lane. He have been nearly unstoppable this season on the short tracks. Dominated Richmond and Bristol and nearly won at Phoenix. So no surprise he looks impressive at Loudon so far. Many people in the garage on Saturday singled out the 19 car as the car to beat, after the first practice session. He wasn't quite as dominant in the final practice session in my opinion, but I think he will be tough to beat. When you compared him to rest of the competition, the 19 car looks to have a top 3 car. I think him losing his pit selection will hurt him on pit road, but he should be able to overcome that during race runs though. Another thing to like about him? He have finished 3 of the last 4 Cup races inside the top 6. If Kyle Busch doesn't go to victory lane, I think it will be because Carl Edwards.
3. Kevin Harvick - If Edwards had the best car on Saturday, then Kevin Harvick was following his footsteps. I personally don't think the top 3 or 4 drivers are really that far apart. Harvick looked awesome in both practice sessions on Saturday, on top of an solid 8th place starting position. He stood out to me on the long runs and I would go far as saying he looked like the best car. Hard to say, since not everyone posted 20-lap runs. But Harvick did that to start off final practice and he was very strong to me. Actually him and Matt Kenseth both started off with 20 laps runs and when you compare their laps times, you can see that Harvick sustained better on the long runs. With that being said, Matt probably has a top 5 car too. Throughout both practices, Harvick lap times were among the best. In fact in final practice, I thought he had the best overall car. Why is that important? Final practice have more similar track conditions to racetime. If anyone can beat the Gibbs cars this week, then I would directly look at Kevin Harvick. My concern is fuel strategy will become a factor late. If it doesn't, then fully expect the 4 car to be least a top 5 finisher.
4. Matt Kenseth - I felt like Matt Kenseth and the three drivers I have listed above were the best in practice on Saturday. And Kenseth may be the only one being overlooked this week and for what reason, I don't know. He have won twice in the past 5 races at New Hampshire and have been great on the short-flat tracks this season. In practice, I thought he was really solid and was a top 5 guy. He was probably a little better in the final session than the earlier one on Saturday. Kenseth also been running good as anyone lately it seems since start of May. He doesn't always go out and lead laps, but certainly have been one of the drivers to beat this weekend. I think when the green flag waves on Sunday afternoon, I believe we will see the No.20 car move towards the front. As I mentioned with up above, I thought the pit crews were going to be a major factor in who eventually goes to victory lane. Matt Kenseth have one of those speedy JGR crews to service his car. That may be his biggest asset this weekend, not to mention a pretty solid racecar.
5. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson will start from the pole in Sunday's race, but I don't think he will be able to stay there though. In fact, over the past 7 races here, only once have the race winner came from the first 5 starting positions. Not only that, but Johnson is in a major slump right now. He have only managed two top 10 finishes since the Texas race back in April. However, he does have a pretty good track record here. As he have finished 6 of last 8 Loudon races inside the top 7. In fact, Johnson have a pretty good history of taking good starting positions and translating them into solid finishes. In 28 career starts, he have started inside the top 10 in 15 races. 12 of 15 races have ended in 11th or better for Jimmie Johnson. In practice, I wouldn't say that Johnson had a bad car. Overall, I thought he was really good. I just didn't see the speed that the cars above show. I think him starting on from pole position will definitely help in this race, but I think he will eventually finish somewhere around 5th to 10th place. Probably what type of car, he has too.
6. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski have looked good at New Hampshire so far and made some gain in both practices on his car. I wouldn't call him a race-winning threat, but Keselowski have a history of running well here. Penske have been a force at this track over the past two season and I fully expect both of the Penske cars to run top 10 once again. Keselowski look to be the strong Penske Ford of the two in the practices on Saturday. I don't think Keselowski have the raw speed of the JGR cars, but he should be able to stay within striking distance of the top 5 though. With some pit strategy (the 2 team known for that), I wouldn't be shocked to see him up front leading some laps as well.
7. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin have been right there with his JGR teammates this weekend on the speed charts, but I don't trust him too much. Hamlin will roll off from inside the top 10 and should be able to have a shot at the top 5 at some point as well. I honestly cannot remember the last time the 11 car have looked this good in practice, I would say this is the best he have looked in 2016 leading up to a race. I really like Hamlin on Sunday, but there a part of me who knows how he haven't been consistent this season to warrant my trust. If he can keep his car up towards the front, then we can pretty much expect a solid top 10 out of him. Anything beyond that is gravy in my opinion, but we know he is very capable of that, too. He use to be a stud here and he maybe just that if the race plays out for him right.
8. Martin Truex Jr - I honestly haven't liked what I have seen from Truex at New Hampshire so far. He haven't been terrible, but at the same time I haven't been blown away. To make matters worse, he didn't post an 10-lap average in final practice which makes me a little concerned. Drivers who make a lot of short runs and don't stay on the track for long, may be struggling to get their cars right. This isn't always the case, but that might explain the lack of speed from the 78. When looking at his numbers this season, he have struggled far more at the short-flat racetracks than really any other type of track. And really, he haven't had any poor finishes. Just his performances have been a bit eye-opening in my opinion. Only an 11.5 average finish and 11.5 average running position at Phoenix and Richmond combined. He also haven't faired too well on the short-tracks in general. Wasn't overly competitive at Martinsville or Bristol. Those two tracks aren't really relevant to New Hampshire, but still my point is valid. Overall, I think Truex is a top 10 driver entering Sunday's race but I wouldn't be shocked if he drifted into the teens to be completely honest. I am just not loving him like I usually am.
9. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch is definitely under the radar this weekend at New Hampshire, his track record here of late is probably one of the main reasons for that though. Kurt have been a top 10 machine this season and only have three finishes on the year, worse than 10th place. One of those three came at Daytona a few weeks ago. Should be noted that, Logano had a part in that happening. So basically, he should be a lock for the top 10 on Sunday. In practice, I think that pretty much was the case as well. I don't think he was top 5 good or anything close to that. But he looked to be in the 8th-12th place range of drivers. If you are looking for safe and predictable bet, then go with Kurt Busch. I am not sure, if there is a better driver to roll with at the moment!
10. Joey Logano - This is probably little too low for Joey Logano this week, but honestly I felt like he struggled in practice more than Brad Keselowski. Now, he wasn't terrible by any means but he just doesn't have the speed that I was expecting from him. After wrecking last week, I thought for sure that the 22 team would come out swinging with a bad fast No.22 Ford, but that haven't been the case so far. Logano will have some work to do, if he wants to score his second win of the season. Entering Sunday's race, I have him as a top 10 driver with possible upside to grab a top 5 finish. However, his stats on the short flat racetracks aren't really that impressive either. He have finish much better than he have ran. Guess I am not loving Logano this week, in result he get a low ranking from me.
11. Kasey Kahne - Kasey Kahne is definitely someone to watch out for this week and he is looking really good so far. He qualified 11th and have been among the top 10 in both practices on Saturday. Kasey don't have the fastest car, but it been awhile since he have looked this good. Kasey and the 5 team have a history of screwing up fast cars, but I think this week will be different for him though. Headed into practice, I was expecting nothing better than an low or middle-teen finish. But I will be honest, I think that could be the worst-case possible for him. I may be overselling him a bit though. This is Kasey Kahne, we are talking about. The same driver who I have said in the past is the most overrated driver in Nascar history. Overall, I think there is a lot of potential with Kasey at New Hampshire. At same time, in back of mind there are always doubts about him. I would love a top 10 finish out of him, but realistically I have my standards for him set on a low-teen finish.
12. Tony Stewart - I think Tony Stewart is gonna have another good race weekend. He have looked good all weekend long and will roll off from the 12 starting position. Smoke also been pretty good lately as well. Add on a solid track record and you get a good top 15 fantasy option with some upside to finish in latter part of the top 10. I honestly don't have a lot to say about him overall. If Tony can keep his car on the lead lap (he should), then you should expect a finish between 9th-14th place. I don't see him finishing outside of that range, unless fuel mileage comes into play at the end.
Have a question?
Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com
Twitter - @Garryy12
Thanks for reading,
Garry Briggs
