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The Coca-Cola 600 is the biggest race of the season (in my opinion). Not only is it 100 miles longer than the Daytona 500 , but it is a home race for majority of the NSCS team! Every raceteam will looking to show off in their backyard. Especially with friends and family likely in attendance. For this weekend race , we will use past Charlotte race data , current momentum , info from the ASR and season data to make our fantasy picks!
1-Jamie Mac: JMac is known to deliver on Nascar biggest stages. He is an former Charlotte winner and won the ASR race last season. More importantly , he been on a tear since Martinsville. In that span , he have an 9.6 average finish and have finished 15th or better in every race. On similar tracks in 2015 , 17.5 average finish, 8.0 average start, 13.0 average running position, 9 laps led and 86.7 driver rating. Only 1 Top 10 in 4 starts on those Intermediate tracks. However last season he posted 4.0 average finish , 22.0 average finish , 8.5 average running position , 39 laps led and 106.6 driver rating. He was one of 5 drivers to sweep the top 10 and only 1 of 2 drivers to sweep the top 5 in 2014 at Charlotte! Historically speaking , JMac been hit or miss. In 25 starts , he have 2 wins and 10 Top 10s. Including 7 of them being Top 5s. Unfortunately he only have 14 Top 20s. In fact he have finished inside the top 5 in 4 of his past 10 Charlotte races. The other 6 results ended in 17th or worse. He worth taking a risk on though. Especially after considering the potential he have.
*Tested at Charlotte in March
2-Brad Keselowski: Brad-K been meh this season. He been really strong at times, but other just good enough for top 10s. Last season at Charlotte , he posted 13.0 average finish , 9.5 average start, 7.5 average running position, 51 laps led and 102.3 driver rating. On similar tracks in 2015 , he been solid overall. He have compiled 7.3 average finish, 7.0 average start, 8.3 average running position, 81 laps led and 108.1 driver rating. Historically speaking , Brad been good. However not great. In 11 career starts , BK holds an 15.7 average finish and 9 Top 20s. Including 1 win and 3 Top 10s over his past 6 Charlotte races. Most noticeably he have knocked off 4 Top 11 in that span. The other two? 16th and 36th. Both races were inflated due to an incident/mechanical issues.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon isn't my ideal option , but he could make a potential sleeper for deep formats. Last season he posted 14.5 average finish , 26.0 average start, 17.0 average running position , 6 laps led and 76.2 driver rating. His average running position (17.0) stands out because that's really good for him. Usually his ARP is somewhere in the mid-20s or something. However he have struggled on the intermediates in 2015. Only an 23.8 average finish with 24.8 average running position. Including 3 Top 20s (best of 16th - Cali). I don't really love Dillon to be honest. Hard to overlook his numbers this season. Realistically I think he is having an Sophomore slump this season. Kinda surprise nobody have noticed that.
4-Kevin Harvick: There no better option than Harvick right now. He been a freak on the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks all season long. Including 1.8 average finish , 7.0 average start, 3.5 average running position, 4 Top 2s , 407 laps led and 133.0 driver rating. That's just ridiculous! He was also ridiculously good at Charlotte last season too! How good exactly? He posted 1.5 average finish (series-best) , 9.0 average start (Tied 3rd-best) , 4.0 average running position (Series-best) , 262 laps led (Series-best) and 136.8 driver rating (Series-best). So in basic terms , he was unstoppable. You almost have to have Harvick on your fantasy roster. Historically speaking , Harvick holds an 15.8 average finish and 11 Top 10s. Over his past 10 starts (dating back to 2010) , Harvick have knocked off 8 Top 10s. Including 3 wins in that span. In fact , only once have Harvick finish worse than 11th. No other driver have won more than once since 2010. Do I need to say anymore? I think not.
*Tested at Charlotte in March
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne's best track is Charlotte. He have won there 4 times and have been strong in recent seasons here. Last season he posted 12.0 average finish , 11.0 average start, 17.0 average running position, 0 laps led, and 84.4 driver rating. Those aren't terrible numbers , but definitely below Kasey's potential! On similar tracks in 2015 , KK have compiled 14.0 average finish, 4.8 average start, 7.8 average running position, 6 laps led and 103.4 driver rating. Most noticeably , he have only 1 Top 10. That was at Texas , where he finished 8th. He ran most of that in the top 5 though. Historically speaking, Kahne holds 11.4 average finish and 13 Top 10s in 22 starts. Including 5 Top 10s and 3 Top 2s in 6 races since joining HMS. I don't see how I leave Kahne off my fantasy roster
*Tested at Charlotte in March
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick been inconsistent this season. At times she looked like an teen-ish driver. At others , she looked averaged in the mid-20s. Hard to judge what she will be at the 600. Last season, she posted 32.0 average finish, 9.0 average start, 21.0 average running position, 0 laps led and 62.2 driver rating. Most Noticeably she have qualified inside the top 15 at Charlotte last season. However haven't fared well during the actual race. This season on Intermediates , she have been middle of the road. Only 21.0 average finish and 3 Top 20s with 21.4 average running position. Her finish was 16th (twice- Texas and Atlanta). There probably better options out there.
11-Denny Hamlin: With Busch back, it hard seeing Hamlin or Kenseth getting the best equipment available. Especially since both are pretty much locked into the chase. Hamlin inconsistency is a real problem too. He only have 4 Top 10s in 2015. More noticeably , he haven't put back-to-back top 10 together. In fact , he have more finishes "outside" the top 20 (6) , then he have "inside" the top 20 (5). However all isn't lost for Hamlin. On 1.5 Intermediate tracks in 2015 , he have 23.8 average finish, 13.5 average start, 13.0 average running position, 14 laps led and 88.4 driver rating strongly suggests he have had bad luck. He showed excellent potential last season at Charlotte though. He posted 15.5 average finish, 4.5 average start, and 14.5 average running position. Hamlin qualified very strong at Charlotte last season, but I wouldn't count on that this season though.
*Tested at Charlotte in March
14-Tony Stewart: Watching Smoke is like watching my New York Knicks (yes I went there). Highly frustrating! Smoke have been historically bad in 2015. This is worst of his career and quite frankly it hard seeing him going on a major run in the summer. He didn't last season and he arguably ran better last season. Honestly his recent track record at Charlotte may give him small relevancy. With 3 of his past 4 Charlotte races resulting in the top 15. Unfortunately I am buying into it. In 5 Intermediate tracks in 2015, Smoke have compiled 28.0 average finish, 23.0 average running position, and 62.6 driver rating. His average finish (28.0) is ranked 36th-best. Brett Moffitt, Casey Mears, Sam Hornish Jr, Trevor Bayne and Justin Allgier are ranked ahead of him. I think I made my point pretty clear!
16-Greg Biffle: RFR have shown signs of life! Okay it not a consistent heartbeat , but for them it an major improvement. All three drivers continue to be running closer to the front since RFR introduced their new car. Biffle is coming off an top 15 at Kansas. How he perform the next few weeks should give us a great idea on his value. Especially with Pocono, Michigan, London, Bristol on the the horizon in the summer months. His stats this season been pretty low to be honest. On 1.5 Intermediate racetracks , Biff have compiled 17.0 Average finish and 3 Top 20s with 19.8 average running position. I will pass most likely!
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is back! Its may take a few races, before he get up to speed. But he can definitely go on a run. Rowdy is a streaky driver. Meaning he usually go on hot red runs and cold runs. The key is to jump on that hot trend early on. However I wouldn't use him at Charlotte unfortunately. He have a decent track record, but no season data means its difficult to pinpoint his value. Also consider this is the longest race of the season. More trustworthy options out there.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards have been a nightmare for fantasy players in 2015. A lot of people (including myself) was expecting good things from him. Unfortunately he been a major headache instead. Consistency runs well, but never get the finishes. Last season at Charlotte, he posted an 6.0 average finish, 13.5 average running position, and 87.3 driver rating. Roush was considerably down and Edwards still got respectable stats. Hopefully he can match last season's production at Charlotte! On Similar tracks in 2015, Edwards have compiled 21.0 average finish, 10.0 average start, 11.8 average running position, and 90.4 driver rating. His average running position (11.8) tells me a lot. Its indicates he been pretty competitive and have ran into a lot of bad luck. Maybe after All-star weekend, he can go on a hot streak. Charlotte would be a great place to do it! Historically speaking, Edwards have 11 Top 10s (and 18 Top 20s) in 20 career starts with an 11.2 average finish. Including 7 straight finishes inside the top 10.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth have been the best JGR car this season by far. He always the safe option, so he usually good for a top 10 finish. Expect no different this week at Charlotte. Last season he was strong at the 1.5 mile racetrack. He posted 11.0 average finish, 12.5 average running position, and 91.5 driver rating. His stats should have been better if Brad Keselowski didn't get into him late in the race. He finished 3rd last May at the 600 though. On Intermediates in 2015 (including Cali), Kenseth have compiled 14.8 average finish, 16.0 average start, 11.0 average running position, 55 laps led and 93.7 driver rating. Honestly Kenseth little snake bitten! Had the race won at Fontona, but a late caution killed him. The next Intermediate race (Texas) , he spun and finished poorly once again. Other 3 races? 6.6 average finish. Including finishes of 6th , 9th and 5th. Historically speaking, he holds 13.2 average finish and 25 Top 20s in 31 starts. Including 2 wins , 9 Top 5s and 16 Top 10s. Kenseth is a great dark horse to think about.
22-Joey Logano: Charlotte is Logano best racetrack and not everybody realizes it yet. He been a machine here. Last season at Charlotte, he posted 8.0 average finish, 10.5 average running position, and 93.8 driver rating. Nothing special, but so far in career he been able sustain that level of production. In 12 career starts, Logano holds 10.0 average finish and 7 Top 10s (and 11 Top 20s) with career best of 3rd. Since 2011, Logano have altered top 5 (and top 10) finishes between the fall and spring races. If the trends holds up, then he is due for a strong run at the 600. He finished inside the top 5 in the spring Charlotte races in 2011 & 2013. Finished in the Top 10 in the fall Charlotte races in 2012 and 2014. On 1.5 mile Intermediate tracks in 2015, Logano have compiled 5.8 average finish, 2.5 average start, 6.8 average running position, 179 laps led and 112.9 driver rating. Logano strongest attribute is his qualifying. That asset alone set him apart from most fantasy options.
*Tested at Charlotte in March
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon is a 5-time winner. However lately he been pretty inconsistent here. Last season he posted 4.5 average finish, 5.5 average running position, and 116.8 driver rating. Stout numbers, however last season was a rare occurrence at the 1.5 mile racetrack. Over his previous 8 races (minus last season) , Gordon have finished 18th or worse in 5 races. Including finishes of 20th, 21st, 23rd, and 35th. On flip side, he have three finishes of 6th or 7th in that span. Feel like people use last season data far too often. Facts remain, this season rule package doesn't favor Gordon. He have taken a step back. Not because he lost his competitiveness, but because last season rule package perfectly lined up for him. This season's not so much. On 1.5 mile Intermediate tracks in 2015, Gordon have compiled 17.5 average finish, 14.8 average start, 13.5 average running position, and 86.4 driver rating. He should contend for a top 10 finish, but beyond that is unlikely in my opinion!
25-Chase Elliott: Elliott will make his 3rd scheduled start of the season at Charlotte. I feel like this type track is a real strength for him. Don't have any relevant data to go on, but I would expect another top 20 from him. Honestly rookies been killers this season. I mean Jones, Elliott and Blaney all found ways into trouble. Hard to leave him off, but I could definitely understand for the ones who do though.
27-Paul Menard: Menard have started the season off very well. However I feel like his best results are mostly behind him. He is starting to post inconsistent finishes. Usually that is a good indication he is becoming more of a liability (value wise). He will probably knock off few more top 10s, but he is ticking time bomb now. Last season at Charlotte he posted 25.0 average finish, 24.5 average running position, and 66.4 driver rating. Historically speaking, Menard have 16 starts with only 6 Top 20s. His career average finish is 22.8 with 2 Top 10s. Since joining (2011), he have posted 4 Top 20s. Fortunately the past 3 springs races have ended inside the top 15. Including 8th last season. Menard strong strength in 2015 have been the 1.5 mile tracks. He had knocked off 2 Top 12 finishes in 4 races. Don't be fooled though. He should have finished inside the top 10 (if not top 5) at Kansas and Texas. Unfortunately bad luck interfered! He was especially strong at Texas.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman have been decent in 2015. Nothing special though. Last season at Charlotte , he posted 11.0 average finish, 14.5 average running position, and 83.8 driver rating. However he been one of the strongest drivers on the intermediate tracks! He compiled 8.8 average finish and 9.0 average start with 13.3 average running position. He haven't been the top opinion, but he have found some consistency (like 2014). Newman lacks upside, but he may be a pretty safe option overall. Especially if you're just looking for an top 10 or top 12.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt isn't exactly the best option at Charlotte, but he was pretty solid last season. He posted finishes of 40th and 11th. To be fair, he had a stock issue and eventual engine cut his day short. He was running strong before that point. Actually he was around 10th or something. This season he been really strong on Intermediate racetracks. In 3 races (including Cali) , he have compiled 8.3 average finish, 3.3 average start, 6.0 average running position, 130 laps led, and 114.1 driver rating. Expect another strong effort out of Busch! He started on the pole twice this season. Both were on this type track.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is coming off an 15th-place finish at Kansas. Its doesn't justify how good he was though. Lately Larson starting to show flashes of his 2014 greatest. No surprise since the temps are heating up now. For few months, I have been saying this. He gonna eventually breakout. Wouldn't be shocked if it at Charlotte though. Last season here , he posted 12.0 average finish, 14.5 average running position, and 89.7 driver rating. He have ran extremely well this season on the Intermediates. His 10.8 average running position tells me a lot. Don't be fooled by 18.5 average finish. At Texas and Kansas, he probably should have gotten Top 10s (if not top 5s). Also he have had an 7.5 average start. Can Larson breakout of this slump? I think so.
43-Aric Almirola: Almirola have impressed the heck out of me! He keep knocking off solid finishes, yet people keep ignoring him! That's fine though. More value for me! In 11 races in 2015, Aric have 10 Top 20s and 7 Top 15s. Aric is basically an 3rd-tier driver (equipment wise). So that pretty darn good. In fact, he have scored the 13th-most points per race. More impressively, he currently holds better average finish than Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Kyle Larson, Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart, Clint Bowyer and Paul Menard. Since joining RPM, he have 3 Top 16 finishes in 6 starts. Last season he finished 11th at the 600. He have knocked off 3 Top 20s (2 Top 15s) on 1.5 mile racetracks in 2015.
*Tested at Charlotte in March
48-Jimmie Johnson: No there hotter driver than Jimmie Johnson. Since finishing poorly at Martinsville, Johnson have gone on a major hot streak! Including 2 wins and 5 straight Top 5s finishes in that span. And now he goes to a track he have win at a ridiculous 7-times. However only one win since 2010. He undoubtedly will be one of the favorites. But recent history shows that Johnson isn't consistent dominated force like he once was. In his past 10 Charlotte races, he have 4 Top 5s. However he have 5 finishes of 17th or worse. Johnson is the safe bet, but I think he is beatable though. Unfortunately I don't think anyone will have anything for him. He have 3 wins on 1.5 mile racetracks in 2015 (4 races). Hard to bet against that overall.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex continue to run well in 2015! Expect that to be the case at Charlotte. He had the best car two weeks ago at Kansas. But pit strategy did him in ultimately. Not totally surprising I guess. Since Kansas known for that. Charlotte will likely be the same way. Honestly I don't think Truex will back up his performance from Kansas. He been extremely strong on Intermediate tracks in 2015. He have compiled 6.5 average finish, 10.3 average start, 6.8 average running position and 113.8 driver rating . Very impressive stat-line. Probably should knock off another top 10 this weekend.
*Tested at Charlotte in March
88-Dale Jr: Junior is the most underrated driver in the series among the top drivers. He consistency output solid results and rarely misses a beat. On Intermediates in 2015, Dale have compiled 3.3 average finish, 13.3 average start, 7.0 average running position and 112.7 driver rating. His lackluster qualifying is what hurt his value. I like what he brings to the table. Strong consistency on high-speed Intermediate racetracks and legitimate top 5 upside. He's should be one of the favorites heading into this weekend race.
I want to end today's preview by saying, I wouldn't overvalue the All Star Race. There definitely relevant information from it. However I think it safer to use season data as your foundation.
**All stats from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com & DriverAverages
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
The Coca-Cola 600 is the biggest race of the season (in my opinion). Not only is it 100 miles longer than the Daytona 500 , but it is a home race for majority of the NSCS team! Every raceteam will looking to show off in their backyard. Especially with friends and family likely in attendance. For this weekend race , we will use past Charlotte race data , current momentum , info from the ASR and season data to make our fantasy picks!
1-Jamie Mac: JMac is known to deliver on Nascar biggest stages. He is an former Charlotte winner and won the ASR race last season. More importantly , he been on a tear since Martinsville. In that span , he have an 9.6 average finish and have finished 15th or better in every race. On similar tracks in 2015 , 17.5 average finish, 8.0 average start, 13.0 average running position, 9 laps led and 86.7 driver rating. Only 1 Top 10 in 4 starts on those Intermediate tracks. However last season he posted 4.0 average finish , 22.0 average finish , 8.5 average running position , 39 laps led and 106.6 driver rating. He was one of 5 drivers to sweep the top 10 and only 1 of 2 drivers to sweep the top 5 in 2014 at Charlotte! Historically speaking , JMac been hit or miss. In 25 starts , he have 2 wins and 10 Top 10s. Including 7 of them being Top 5s. Unfortunately he only have 14 Top 20s. In fact he have finished inside the top 5 in 4 of his past 10 Charlotte races. The other 6 results ended in 17th or worse. He worth taking a risk on though. Especially after considering the potential he have.
*Tested at Charlotte in March
2-Brad Keselowski: Brad-K been meh this season. He been really strong at times, but other just good enough for top 10s. Last season at Charlotte , he posted 13.0 average finish , 9.5 average start, 7.5 average running position, 51 laps led and 102.3 driver rating. On similar tracks in 2015 , he been solid overall. He have compiled 7.3 average finish, 7.0 average start, 8.3 average running position, 81 laps led and 108.1 driver rating. Historically speaking , Brad been good. However not great. In 11 career starts , BK holds an 15.7 average finish and 9 Top 20s. Including 1 win and 3 Top 10s over his past 6 Charlotte races. Most noticeably he have knocked off 4 Top 11 in that span. The other two? 16th and 36th. Both races were inflated due to an incident/mechanical issues.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon isn't my ideal option , but he could make a potential sleeper for deep formats. Last season he posted 14.5 average finish , 26.0 average start, 17.0 average running position , 6 laps led and 76.2 driver rating. His average running position (17.0) stands out because that's really good for him. Usually his ARP is somewhere in the mid-20s or something. However he have struggled on the intermediates in 2015. Only an 23.8 average finish with 24.8 average running position. Including 3 Top 20s (best of 16th - Cali). I don't really love Dillon to be honest. Hard to overlook his numbers this season. Realistically I think he is having an Sophomore slump this season. Kinda surprise nobody have noticed that.
4-Kevin Harvick: There no better option than Harvick right now. He been a freak on the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks all season long. Including 1.8 average finish , 7.0 average start, 3.5 average running position, 4 Top 2s , 407 laps led and 133.0 driver rating. That's just ridiculous! He was also ridiculously good at Charlotte last season too! How good exactly? He posted 1.5 average finish (series-best) , 9.0 average start (Tied 3rd-best) , 4.0 average running position (Series-best) , 262 laps led (Series-best) and 136.8 driver rating (Series-best). So in basic terms , he was unstoppable. You almost have to have Harvick on your fantasy roster. Historically speaking , Harvick holds an 15.8 average finish and 11 Top 10s. Over his past 10 starts (dating back to 2010) , Harvick have knocked off 8 Top 10s. Including 3 wins in that span. In fact , only once have Harvick finish worse than 11th. No other driver have won more than once since 2010. Do I need to say anymore? I think not.
*Tested at Charlotte in March
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne's best track is Charlotte. He have won there 4 times and have been strong in recent seasons here. Last season he posted 12.0 average finish , 11.0 average start, 17.0 average running position, 0 laps led, and 84.4 driver rating. Those aren't terrible numbers , but definitely below Kasey's potential! On similar tracks in 2015 , KK have compiled 14.0 average finish, 4.8 average start, 7.8 average running position, 6 laps led and 103.4 driver rating. Most noticeably , he have only 1 Top 10. That was at Texas , where he finished 8th. He ran most of that in the top 5 though. Historically speaking, Kahne holds 11.4 average finish and 13 Top 10s in 22 starts. Including 5 Top 10s and 3 Top 2s in 6 races since joining HMS. I don't see how I leave Kahne off my fantasy roster
*Tested at Charlotte in March
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick been inconsistent this season. At times she looked like an teen-ish driver. At others , she looked averaged in the mid-20s. Hard to judge what she will be at the 600. Last season, she posted 32.0 average finish, 9.0 average start, 21.0 average running position, 0 laps led and 62.2 driver rating. Most Noticeably she have qualified inside the top 15 at Charlotte last season. However haven't fared well during the actual race. This season on Intermediates , she have been middle of the road. Only 21.0 average finish and 3 Top 20s with 21.4 average running position. Her finish was 16th (twice- Texas and Atlanta). There probably better options out there.
11-Denny Hamlin: With Busch back, it hard seeing Hamlin or Kenseth getting the best equipment available. Especially since both are pretty much locked into the chase. Hamlin inconsistency is a real problem too. He only have 4 Top 10s in 2015. More noticeably , he haven't put back-to-back top 10 together. In fact , he have more finishes "outside" the top 20 (6) , then he have "inside" the top 20 (5). However all isn't lost for Hamlin. On 1.5 Intermediate tracks in 2015 , he have 23.8 average finish, 13.5 average start, 13.0 average running position, 14 laps led and 88.4 driver rating strongly suggests he have had bad luck. He showed excellent potential last season at Charlotte though. He posted 15.5 average finish, 4.5 average start, and 14.5 average running position. Hamlin qualified very strong at Charlotte last season, but I wouldn't count on that this season though.
*Tested at Charlotte in March
14-Tony Stewart: Watching Smoke is like watching my New York Knicks (yes I went there). Highly frustrating! Smoke have been historically bad in 2015. This is worst of his career and quite frankly it hard seeing him going on a major run in the summer. He didn't last season and he arguably ran better last season. Honestly his recent track record at Charlotte may give him small relevancy. With 3 of his past 4 Charlotte races resulting in the top 15. Unfortunately I am buying into it. In 5 Intermediate tracks in 2015, Smoke have compiled 28.0 average finish, 23.0 average running position, and 62.6 driver rating. His average finish (28.0) is ranked 36th-best. Brett Moffitt, Casey Mears, Sam Hornish Jr, Trevor Bayne and Justin Allgier are ranked ahead of him. I think I made my point pretty clear!
16-Greg Biffle: RFR have shown signs of life! Okay it not a consistent heartbeat , but for them it an major improvement. All three drivers continue to be running closer to the front since RFR introduced their new car. Biffle is coming off an top 15 at Kansas. How he perform the next few weeks should give us a great idea on his value. Especially with Pocono, Michigan, London, Bristol on the the horizon in the summer months. His stats this season been pretty low to be honest. On 1.5 Intermediate racetracks , Biff have compiled 17.0 Average finish and 3 Top 20s with 19.8 average running position. I will pass most likely!
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is back! Its may take a few races, before he get up to speed. But he can definitely go on a run. Rowdy is a streaky driver. Meaning he usually go on hot red runs and cold runs. The key is to jump on that hot trend early on. However I wouldn't use him at Charlotte unfortunately. He have a decent track record, but no season data means its difficult to pinpoint his value. Also consider this is the longest race of the season. More trustworthy options out there.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards have been a nightmare for fantasy players in 2015. A lot of people (including myself) was expecting good things from him. Unfortunately he been a major headache instead. Consistency runs well, but never get the finishes. Last season at Charlotte, he posted an 6.0 average finish, 13.5 average running position, and 87.3 driver rating. Roush was considerably down and Edwards still got respectable stats. Hopefully he can match last season's production at Charlotte! On Similar tracks in 2015, Edwards have compiled 21.0 average finish, 10.0 average start, 11.8 average running position, and 90.4 driver rating. His average running position (11.8) tells me a lot. Its indicates he been pretty competitive and have ran into a lot of bad luck. Maybe after All-star weekend, he can go on a hot streak. Charlotte would be a great place to do it! Historically speaking, Edwards have 11 Top 10s (and 18 Top 20s) in 20 career starts with an 11.2 average finish. Including 7 straight finishes inside the top 10.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth have been the best JGR car this season by far. He always the safe option, so he usually good for a top 10 finish. Expect no different this week at Charlotte. Last season he was strong at the 1.5 mile racetrack. He posted 11.0 average finish, 12.5 average running position, and 91.5 driver rating. His stats should have been better if Brad Keselowski didn't get into him late in the race. He finished 3rd last May at the 600 though. On Intermediates in 2015 (including Cali), Kenseth have compiled 14.8 average finish, 16.0 average start, 11.0 average running position, 55 laps led and 93.7 driver rating. Honestly Kenseth little snake bitten! Had the race won at Fontona, but a late caution killed him. The next Intermediate race (Texas) , he spun and finished poorly once again. Other 3 races? 6.6 average finish. Including finishes of 6th , 9th and 5th. Historically speaking, he holds 13.2 average finish and 25 Top 20s in 31 starts. Including 2 wins , 9 Top 5s and 16 Top 10s. Kenseth is a great dark horse to think about.
22-Joey Logano: Charlotte is Logano best racetrack and not everybody realizes it yet. He been a machine here. Last season at Charlotte, he posted 8.0 average finish, 10.5 average running position, and 93.8 driver rating. Nothing special, but so far in career he been able sustain that level of production. In 12 career starts, Logano holds 10.0 average finish and 7 Top 10s (and 11 Top 20s) with career best of 3rd. Since 2011, Logano have altered top 5 (and top 10) finishes between the fall and spring races. If the trends holds up, then he is due for a strong run at the 600. He finished inside the top 5 in the spring Charlotte races in 2011 & 2013. Finished in the Top 10 in the fall Charlotte races in 2012 and 2014. On 1.5 mile Intermediate tracks in 2015, Logano have compiled 5.8 average finish, 2.5 average start, 6.8 average running position, 179 laps led and 112.9 driver rating. Logano strongest attribute is his qualifying. That asset alone set him apart from most fantasy options.
*Tested at Charlotte in March
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon is a 5-time winner. However lately he been pretty inconsistent here. Last season he posted 4.5 average finish, 5.5 average running position, and 116.8 driver rating. Stout numbers, however last season was a rare occurrence at the 1.5 mile racetrack. Over his previous 8 races (minus last season) , Gordon have finished 18th or worse in 5 races. Including finishes of 20th, 21st, 23rd, and 35th. On flip side, he have three finishes of 6th or 7th in that span. Feel like people use last season data far too often. Facts remain, this season rule package doesn't favor Gordon. He have taken a step back. Not because he lost his competitiveness, but because last season rule package perfectly lined up for him. This season's not so much. On 1.5 mile Intermediate tracks in 2015, Gordon have compiled 17.5 average finish, 14.8 average start, 13.5 average running position, and 86.4 driver rating. He should contend for a top 10 finish, but beyond that is unlikely in my opinion!
25-Chase Elliott: Elliott will make his 3rd scheduled start of the season at Charlotte. I feel like this type track is a real strength for him. Don't have any relevant data to go on, but I would expect another top 20 from him. Honestly rookies been killers this season. I mean Jones, Elliott and Blaney all found ways into trouble. Hard to leave him off, but I could definitely understand for the ones who do though.
27-Paul Menard: Menard have started the season off very well. However I feel like his best results are mostly behind him. He is starting to post inconsistent finishes. Usually that is a good indication he is becoming more of a liability (value wise). He will probably knock off few more top 10s, but he is ticking time bomb now. Last season at Charlotte he posted 25.0 average finish, 24.5 average running position, and 66.4 driver rating. Historically speaking, Menard have 16 starts with only 6 Top 20s. His career average finish is 22.8 with 2 Top 10s. Since joining (2011), he have posted 4 Top 20s. Fortunately the past 3 springs races have ended inside the top 15. Including 8th last season. Menard strong strength in 2015 have been the 1.5 mile tracks. He had knocked off 2 Top 12 finishes in 4 races. Don't be fooled though. He should have finished inside the top 10 (if not top 5) at Kansas and Texas. Unfortunately bad luck interfered! He was especially strong at Texas.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman have been decent in 2015. Nothing special though. Last season at Charlotte , he posted 11.0 average finish, 14.5 average running position, and 83.8 driver rating. However he been one of the strongest drivers on the intermediate tracks! He compiled 8.8 average finish and 9.0 average start with 13.3 average running position. He haven't been the top opinion, but he have found some consistency (like 2014). Newman lacks upside, but he may be a pretty safe option overall. Especially if you're just looking for an top 10 or top 12.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt isn't exactly the best option at Charlotte, but he was pretty solid last season. He posted finishes of 40th and 11th. To be fair, he had a stock issue and eventual engine cut his day short. He was running strong before that point. Actually he was around 10th or something. This season he been really strong on Intermediate racetracks. In 3 races (including Cali) , he have compiled 8.3 average finish, 3.3 average start, 6.0 average running position, 130 laps led, and 114.1 driver rating. Expect another strong effort out of Busch! He started on the pole twice this season. Both were on this type track.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is coming off an 15th-place finish at Kansas. Its doesn't justify how good he was though. Lately Larson starting to show flashes of his 2014 greatest. No surprise since the temps are heating up now. For few months, I have been saying this. He gonna eventually breakout. Wouldn't be shocked if it at Charlotte though. Last season here , he posted 12.0 average finish, 14.5 average running position, and 89.7 driver rating. He have ran extremely well this season on the Intermediates. His 10.8 average running position tells me a lot. Don't be fooled by 18.5 average finish. At Texas and Kansas, he probably should have gotten Top 10s (if not top 5s). Also he have had an 7.5 average start. Can Larson breakout of this slump? I think so.
43-Aric Almirola: Almirola have impressed the heck out of me! He keep knocking off solid finishes, yet people keep ignoring him! That's fine though. More value for me! In 11 races in 2015, Aric have 10 Top 20s and 7 Top 15s. Aric is basically an 3rd-tier driver (equipment wise). So that pretty darn good. In fact, he have scored the 13th-most points per race. More impressively, he currently holds better average finish than Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Kyle Larson, Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart, Clint Bowyer and Paul Menard. Since joining RPM, he have 3 Top 16 finishes in 6 starts. Last season he finished 11th at the 600. He have knocked off 3 Top 20s (2 Top 15s) on 1.5 mile racetracks in 2015.
*Tested at Charlotte in March
48-Jimmie Johnson: No there hotter driver than Jimmie Johnson. Since finishing poorly at Martinsville, Johnson have gone on a major hot streak! Including 2 wins and 5 straight Top 5s finishes in that span. And now he goes to a track he have win at a ridiculous 7-times. However only one win since 2010. He undoubtedly will be one of the favorites. But recent history shows that Johnson isn't consistent dominated force like he once was. In his past 10 Charlotte races, he have 4 Top 5s. However he have 5 finishes of 17th or worse. Johnson is the safe bet, but I think he is beatable though. Unfortunately I don't think anyone will have anything for him. He have 3 wins on 1.5 mile racetracks in 2015 (4 races). Hard to bet against that overall.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex continue to run well in 2015! Expect that to be the case at Charlotte. He had the best car two weeks ago at Kansas. But pit strategy did him in ultimately. Not totally surprising I guess. Since Kansas known for that. Charlotte will likely be the same way. Honestly I don't think Truex will back up his performance from Kansas. He been extremely strong on Intermediate tracks in 2015. He have compiled 6.5 average finish, 10.3 average start, 6.8 average running position and 113.8 driver rating . Very impressive stat-line. Probably should knock off another top 10 this weekend.
*Tested at Charlotte in March
88-Dale Jr: Junior is the most underrated driver in the series among the top drivers. He consistency output solid results and rarely misses a beat. On Intermediates in 2015, Dale have compiled 3.3 average finish, 13.3 average start, 7.0 average running position and 112.7 driver rating. His lackluster qualifying is what hurt his value. I like what he brings to the table. Strong consistency on high-speed Intermediate racetracks and legitimate top 5 upside. He's should be one of the favorites heading into this weekend race.
I want to end today's preview by saying, I wouldn't overvalue the All Star Race. There definitely relevant information from it. However I think it safer to use season data as your foundation.
**All stats from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com & DriverAverages
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
