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We are headed to Dover! Where an 1-mile racetrack known as the "monster mile" lies! This is arguably one of the most difficult track on the schedule. Not because how physically challenging it is, but only handful of driver understand Dover. In simpler terms, only a select few have successful mastered this place. So making fantasy picks this week should be pretty cut-clear.
Typically the cream rises to the top at Dover! So from a fantasy vantage point, I wouldn't try to get too fancy. Especially with tracks such as Pocono, Michigan and Sonoma on tap. All good places to get off-sequence!
Let get start!
1-Jamie Mac: The CGR cars sucked at Charlotte! Honestly I was very surprised. Thought they were decent all weekend. Not real high on JMac at Dover though. He struggled last season here. He posted 17.5 average finish, 12.0 average start, 18.5 average running position, 25% laps completed inside the top 15 and 73.9 driver rating. Those aren't great numbers and that was with CGR running better last season. Over his past 5 races at Dover, JMac have compiled 20.6 average finish, 12.2 average start, 16.4 average running position, and 77.5 driver rating. In those 5 races, he been pretty inconsistent with 2 Top 15s and two finishes outside top 20. Historically speaking, JMac holds 18.2 average finish with 5 Top 10s (15 Top 20s) in 24 starts. However, his last top 10 was in 2008 with Roush.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is coming off another top 10 at Charlotte! I like what he brings to the table in terms of fantasy value this weekend at Dover! Last season he was real strong here. He finished 2nd in both races. Over the past 5 races here, Brad K have compiled 9.4 average finish, 5.8 average start, 8.8 average running position, 95 laps led and 108.1 driver rating. Those are some really strong numbers! Historically speaking, Keselowski holds 13.2 average finish with 4 Top 5s (8 Top 10s) in 10 career starts. Including 4 of the past 5 races ending inside the top 5. He should make a fine fantasy option at Dover in almost every format!
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is coming off his best performance of the season arguably at Charlotte! At Dover, he isn't exactly an viable fantasy option! In 3 career starts, Dillon have compiled an 23.4 average finish with 2 Top 25 finishes. The lacking of data and other important variables makes Dillon's value unknown. Based on this season, I wouldn't nothing more than maybe top 20 finish. And that's probably on a good day for him.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is coming off his worst finish of the 2015 season! At Dover last season, he held 15.0 average finish, 4.5 average start, 10.5 average running position, 247 laps led and 112.1 driver rating. Last fall he led 223 of 400 laps and finished 13th. He had the car to beat most of that race! Feel like Harvick will be overshadowed by guys like Johnson and Gordon. Mainly because of their stout track records. Let me be clear that Harvick will be a heavy favorite come Sunday. In 28 career starts, Harvick holds 15.1 average finish with 12 Top 10s and 22 Top 20s. Including 13 straight finishes of 20th or better!
5-Kasey Kahne: I am not super high on Kahne, but there probably worst options out there too though. Not many drivers have teammates like Gordon and Johnson either. Last season, Kahne posted 19.5 average finish, 14.5 average start, 15.0 average running position and 87.4 driver rating. His career numbers are even worse! In 22 career starts, Only 20.9 average finish with 5 Top 10s and 12 Top 20s. Since joining HMS, he have only 1 Top 10 and that was in his debut. There better places to use him!
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick isn't my ideal fantasy option, but SHR will give her a good enough car to potentially run top 20. Realistically she will be able to finish top 25 more likely. Last season, she posted 24.0 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 58.4 driver rating. She is a visible option in Yahoo! and probably the only format she is worth anything in. Least this week at Dover!
11-Denny Hamlin: Joe Gibbs Racing have made huge strides of late and they as a whole have a lot of momentum! Dover is a good place to keep it going too. Last season, Hamlin posted 8.5 average finish, 5.0 average start, 8.0 average running position, and 101.2 driver rating. Really good numbers in a down year for JGR as a whole. Over the past 5 races here, Hamlin compiled 15.8 average finish, 6.0 average start, 7.8 average running position, and 98.7 driver rating. Historically speaking, Hamlin been pretty middle of the road! In 18 career starts, he holds 19.2 average finish with 12 Top 20s and 6 Top 10s. There probably better options out there in my opinion!
14-Tony Stewart: I am not that high on Stewart, but his last three starts have looked pretty decent though. With all three races ending inside the Top 14. Including 2 Top 10 in those 3 races. Realistically I am not expecting too much from him. Fantasy Nascar is all about assets/liabilities when it comes to sleepers. Stewart fall on the wrong side of the coin. He need to show some consistency eventually, before we can even consider him!
16-Greg Biffle: Biff been decent the past few races. If RFR is even little legitimate, then Biffle should run well at Dover! Before RFR went to crap, they were one of the best at Dover. Last season he posted 29.5 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 65.1 driver rating. From career point of view, Biff holds 13.7 average finish with 11 Top 10s and 19 Top 20s. Including 4 finishes inside the Top 16 in the past 6 races (3 seasons). I am not sold on Roush, but they seem to be on the right track though. I would expect another top 20 from him, but wouldn't rule out top 15 potential though.
18-Kyle Busch: The return of Busch was huge for JGR! They ran one of their best races of the 2015 season and placed all four cars in the top 11 at Charlotte. Dover have been for a long time a great track for Rowdy! Last season he had finishes of 42nd and 10th. In the summer race, he led 81 laps before getting put in the wall. Over the past 5 races here, Rowdy have compiled 13.6 average finish, 5.2 average start, 8.6 average running position, 563 laps led and 118.1 driver rating. Historically speaking, Rowdy been great in 20 career starts! He holds 14.1 average finish with 13 Top 10s. Including 8 Top 10s in the past 10 races. Including 3 of the past 4!
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards finally got that win and now he may go on a hot streak. At the right time too! A lot of great tracks coming up and JGR seems to be headed in the right direction. Last season Edwards posted respectable numbers with RFR. He held 12.5 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 80.4 driver rating. He been solid over the past 5 races. He posted 15.8 average finish, 16.8 average start, 14.0 average running position and 82.1 driver rating. If he can run that good with RFR in lesser equipment, then he should easily run top 10 this weekend. Historically speaking, Edwards been one of the best in the series! In 21 career starts, he holds an 10.2 average finish with 12 Top 10s and 19 Top 20s. Including 16 of the past 18 races ending inside the Top 15.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is having a solid season, but he could be a lot better. Honestly I think Dover is one of his best tracks. Last season he was very strong and posted 4.0 average finish, 17.5 average start, 6.0 average running position, and 111.2 driver rating. Dover been one of Kenseth best tracks since joining JGR. He have wheeled off 3 straight Top 7 finish. Historically speaking, Kenseth been very stout. In 32 career starts, he holds 12.7 average finish with 21 Top 10s and 24 Top 20s. Including 10 of the past 14 races have ended inside the top 5. A lot of people will probably overlook Kenseth, but he definitely have the potential to be a great option!
22-Joey Logano: Logano is coming off one of his worst races of the 2015 season! However Dover is one of his favorite racetracks on the schedule! Last season he posted 6.0 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 98.8 driver rating. Those aren't the best numbers in the series, but he been strong throughout his entire career here! In 12 career starts, Logano holds 13.8 average finish with 8 Top 10s and 9 Top 15s. Including 6 straight Top 10s finishes. Need a sneaky fantasy option? Logano may be your go-to-guy!
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon is widely known as one of the best drivers at Dover, but I don't think that will be the case at Dover though. He have struggled all season long, so I am not expecting anything special from him honestly. He was very strong last season here. As he posted 6.0 average finish, 8.0 average start, 4.0 average running position and 122.0 driver rating. Realistically I wouldn't expect those type of numbers this weekend. I would say he could be an top 10 play if everything goes according to plan!
27-Paul Menard: Menard is having a nice season and should be worth a look. Last season he posted 13.0 average finish, 17.0 average start, 15.5 average running position and 79.7 driver rating. Those are respectable numbers that should get Menard some consideration this weekend at Dover. He been strong all season though. Eventually he will get the results to go along with the performances too! Historically speaking, Menard have struggled at the 1-mile racetrack. Only 8 Top 20s and 2 Top 10s in 15 starts with 19.0 average finish. On the positive side, he have 6 Top 20s in 8 starts since joining RCR.
41-Kurt Busch: Busch have been strong all season long. His Dover record doesn't exactly stout, but do it really matter? Busch been fast everywhere this season and that unlikely to change this weekend. Last season he posted 18.0 average finish with 15.5 average running position and 77.7 driver rating. Looking at his career numbers that been he been typical Kurt Busch. Pretty much an teen-driver most of the time! In 29 career starts, he holds 18.1 average finish with 8 Top 10s and 19 Top 20s. I don't hate use Busch, but there definitely better tracks for him in the near future though.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is coming off one of his worst performances of the 2015 season! Not sure what wrong with CGR, but they're off compared to last season. However I wouldn't worry about Larson. They probably missed the setup as this was the first time both cars struggled that bad. Not really sure what to expect from either CGR cars. Larson posted two solid results last season, but his performance level been down this season. Last season he posted 8.5 average finish, 6.0 average start, 11.5 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. I would expect another Top 15 from Larson with potential to run top 10.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson love messing with us fantasy players! Two of his best tracks had ended in poor finishes. Fortunately Johnson rarely deliver back-to-back duds. When Johnson messes up, he usually rewards the loyal players with a win the following week. At Dover, I would say it almost a given he will show up as the heavy favorite. Last season he posted 2.0 average finish, 6.0 average start, 3.0 average running position, 272 laps led and 133.4 driver rating. Surprising he had one of the strongest cars last fall, but failed to lead a lap. Historically speaking, Johnson been a top 10 machine here. In 26 career starts, Johnson holds 8.1 average finish with 19 Top 10s and 24 Top 20s. Including 10 Top 5(!) in the past 13 races.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex is a former Dover winner and no driver is hotter than the driver of the 78 car! For weeks now I been circling Dover as Truex's next win. Last season he posted 6.5 average finish, 21.0 average start, 15.5 average running position and 86.7 driver rating. The past two races he been one on a tear and he will eventually rip off a win and it might be this weekend! Historically speaking, he holds 15.8 average finish with 8 Top 10s and 12 Top 20s in 18 career starts!
88-Dale Jr: Dover isn't Dale Jr best track, but he probably better than most even realize. 5 Of the past 6 races here have ended inside the Top 11 for Dale Jr. Including an 2nd place run in 2013. Last season he posted 13.0 average finish, 19.0 average start, 13.5 average running position and 87.3 driver rating. Dale Jr is having a great season, so I wouldn't rule out another top 5 from him this weekend. Currently he is on a streak of 3 straight Top 5 finishes dating back to Talladega.
Also don't forget to check out Nascar Behind The Wall! Good blog for all your basic Nascar needs. Such as track schedule, Entry lists, Race Preview,etc. All in one easy location!
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
We are headed to Dover! Where an 1-mile racetrack known as the "monster mile" lies! This is arguably one of the most difficult track on the schedule. Not because how physically challenging it is, but only handful of driver understand Dover. In simpler terms, only a select few have successful mastered this place. So making fantasy picks this week should be pretty cut-clear.
Typically the cream rises to the top at Dover! So from a fantasy vantage point, I wouldn't try to get too fancy. Especially with tracks such as Pocono, Michigan and Sonoma on tap. All good places to get off-sequence!
Let get start!
1-Jamie Mac: The CGR cars sucked at Charlotte! Honestly I was very surprised. Thought they were decent all weekend. Not real high on JMac at Dover though. He struggled last season here. He posted 17.5 average finish, 12.0 average start, 18.5 average running position, 25% laps completed inside the top 15 and 73.9 driver rating. Those aren't great numbers and that was with CGR running better last season. Over his past 5 races at Dover, JMac have compiled 20.6 average finish, 12.2 average start, 16.4 average running position, and 77.5 driver rating. In those 5 races, he been pretty inconsistent with 2 Top 15s and two finishes outside top 20. Historically speaking, JMac holds 18.2 average finish with 5 Top 10s (15 Top 20s) in 24 starts. However, his last top 10 was in 2008 with Roush.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is coming off another top 10 at Charlotte! I like what he brings to the table in terms of fantasy value this weekend at Dover! Last season he was real strong here. He finished 2nd in both races. Over the past 5 races here, Brad K have compiled 9.4 average finish, 5.8 average start, 8.8 average running position, 95 laps led and 108.1 driver rating. Those are some really strong numbers! Historically speaking, Keselowski holds 13.2 average finish with 4 Top 5s (8 Top 10s) in 10 career starts. Including 4 of the past 5 races ending inside the top 5. He should make a fine fantasy option at Dover in almost every format!
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is coming off his best performance of the season arguably at Charlotte! At Dover, he isn't exactly an viable fantasy option! In 3 career starts, Dillon have compiled an 23.4 average finish with 2 Top 25 finishes. The lacking of data and other important variables makes Dillon's value unknown. Based on this season, I wouldn't nothing more than maybe top 20 finish. And that's probably on a good day for him.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is coming off his worst finish of the 2015 season! At Dover last season, he held 15.0 average finish, 4.5 average start, 10.5 average running position, 247 laps led and 112.1 driver rating. Last fall he led 223 of 400 laps and finished 13th. He had the car to beat most of that race! Feel like Harvick will be overshadowed by guys like Johnson and Gordon. Mainly because of their stout track records. Let me be clear that Harvick will be a heavy favorite come Sunday. In 28 career starts, Harvick holds 15.1 average finish with 12 Top 10s and 22 Top 20s. Including 13 straight finishes of 20th or better!
5-Kasey Kahne: I am not super high on Kahne, but there probably worst options out there too though. Not many drivers have teammates like Gordon and Johnson either. Last season, Kahne posted 19.5 average finish, 14.5 average start, 15.0 average running position and 87.4 driver rating. His career numbers are even worse! In 22 career starts, Only 20.9 average finish with 5 Top 10s and 12 Top 20s. Since joining HMS, he have only 1 Top 10 and that was in his debut. There better places to use him!
10-Danica Patrick: Patrick isn't my ideal fantasy option, but SHR will give her a good enough car to potentially run top 20. Realistically she will be able to finish top 25 more likely. Last season, she posted 24.0 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 58.4 driver rating. She is a visible option in Yahoo! and probably the only format she is worth anything in. Least this week at Dover!
11-Denny Hamlin: Joe Gibbs Racing have made huge strides of late and they as a whole have a lot of momentum! Dover is a good place to keep it going too. Last season, Hamlin posted 8.5 average finish, 5.0 average start, 8.0 average running position, and 101.2 driver rating. Really good numbers in a down year for JGR as a whole. Over the past 5 races here, Hamlin compiled 15.8 average finish, 6.0 average start, 7.8 average running position, and 98.7 driver rating. Historically speaking, Hamlin been pretty middle of the road! In 18 career starts, he holds 19.2 average finish with 12 Top 20s and 6 Top 10s. There probably better options out there in my opinion!
14-Tony Stewart: I am not that high on Stewart, but his last three starts have looked pretty decent though. With all three races ending inside the Top 14. Including 2 Top 10 in those 3 races. Realistically I am not expecting too much from him. Fantasy Nascar is all about assets/liabilities when it comes to sleepers. Stewart fall on the wrong side of the coin. He need to show some consistency eventually, before we can even consider him!
16-Greg Biffle: Biff been decent the past few races. If RFR is even little legitimate, then Biffle should run well at Dover! Before RFR went to crap, they were one of the best at Dover. Last season he posted 29.5 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 65.1 driver rating. From career point of view, Biff holds 13.7 average finish with 11 Top 10s and 19 Top 20s. Including 4 finishes inside the Top 16 in the past 6 races (3 seasons). I am not sold on Roush, but they seem to be on the right track though. I would expect another top 20 from him, but wouldn't rule out top 15 potential though.
18-Kyle Busch: The return of Busch was huge for JGR! They ran one of their best races of the 2015 season and placed all four cars in the top 11 at Charlotte. Dover have been for a long time a great track for Rowdy! Last season he had finishes of 42nd and 10th. In the summer race, he led 81 laps before getting put in the wall. Over the past 5 races here, Rowdy have compiled 13.6 average finish, 5.2 average start, 8.6 average running position, 563 laps led and 118.1 driver rating. Historically speaking, Rowdy been great in 20 career starts! He holds 14.1 average finish with 13 Top 10s. Including 8 Top 10s in the past 10 races. Including 3 of the past 4!
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards finally got that win and now he may go on a hot streak. At the right time too! A lot of great tracks coming up and JGR seems to be headed in the right direction. Last season Edwards posted respectable numbers with RFR. He held 12.5 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 80.4 driver rating. He been solid over the past 5 races. He posted 15.8 average finish, 16.8 average start, 14.0 average running position and 82.1 driver rating. If he can run that good with RFR in lesser equipment, then he should easily run top 10 this weekend. Historically speaking, Edwards been one of the best in the series! In 21 career starts, he holds an 10.2 average finish with 12 Top 10s and 19 Top 20s. Including 16 of the past 18 races ending inside the Top 15.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is having a solid season, but he could be a lot better. Honestly I think Dover is one of his best tracks. Last season he was very strong and posted 4.0 average finish, 17.5 average start, 6.0 average running position, and 111.2 driver rating. Dover been one of Kenseth best tracks since joining JGR. He have wheeled off 3 straight Top 7 finish. Historically speaking, Kenseth been very stout. In 32 career starts, he holds 12.7 average finish with 21 Top 10s and 24 Top 20s. Including 10 of the past 14 races have ended inside the top 5. A lot of people will probably overlook Kenseth, but he definitely have the potential to be a great option!
22-Joey Logano: Logano is coming off one of his worst races of the 2015 season! However Dover is one of his favorite racetracks on the schedule! Last season he posted 6.0 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 98.8 driver rating. Those aren't the best numbers in the series, but he been strong throughout his entire career here! In 12 career starts, Logano holds 13.8 average finish with 8 Top 10s and 9 Top 15s. Including 6 straight Top 10s finishes. Need a sneaky fantasy option? Logano may be your go-to-guy!
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon is widely known as one of the best drivers at Dover, but I don't think that will be the case at Dover though. He have struggled all season long, so I am not expecting anything special from him honestly. He was very strong last season here. As he posted 6.0 average finish, 8.0 average start, 4.0 average running position and 122.0 driver rating. Realistically I wouldn't expect those type of numbers this weekend. I would say he could be an top 10 play if everything goes according to plan!
27-Paul Menard: Menard is having a nice season and should be worth a look. Last season he posted 13.0 average finish, 17.0 average start, 15.5 average running position and 79.7 driver rating. Those are respectable numbers that should get Menard some consideration this weekend at Dover. He been strong all season though. Eventually he will get the results to go along with the performances too! Historically speaking, Menard have struggled at the 1-mile racetrack. Only 8 Top 20s and 2 Top 10s in 15 starts with 19.0 average finish. On the positive side, he have 6 Top 20s in 8 starts since joining RCR.
41-Kurt Busch: Busch have been strong all season long. His Dover record doesn't exactly stout, but do it really matter? Busch been fast everywhere this season and that unlikely to change this weekend. Last season he posted 18.0 average finish with 15.5 average running position and 77.7 driver rating. Looking at his career numbers that been he been typical Kurt Busch. Pretty much an teen-driver most of the time! In 29 career starts, he holds 18.1 average finish with 8 Top 10s and 19 Top 20s. I don't hate use Busch, but there definitely better tracks for him in the near future though.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson is coming off one of his worst performances of the 2015 season! Not sure what wrong with CGR, but they're off compared to last season. However I wouldn't worry about Larson. They probably missed the setup as this was the first time both cars struggled that bad. Not really sure what to expect from either CGR cars. Larson posted two solid results last season, but his performance level been down this season. Last season he posted 8.5 average finish, 6.0 average start, 11.5 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. I would expect another Top 15 from Larson with potential to run top 10.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson love messing with us fantasy players! Two of his best tracks had ended in poor finishes. Fortunately Johnson rarely deliver back-to-back duds. When Johnson messes up, he usually rewards the loyal players with a win the following week. At Dover, I would say it almost a given he will show up as the heavy favorite. Last season he posted 2.0 average finish, 6.0 average start, 3.0 average running position, 272 laps led and 133.4 driver rating. Surprising he had one of the strongest cars last fall, but failed to lead a lap. Historically speaking, Johnson been a top 10 machine here. In 26 career starts, Johnson holds 8.1 average finish with 19 Top 10s and 24 Top 20s. Including 10 Top 5(!) in the past 13 races.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex is a former Dover winner and no driver is hotter than the driver of the 78 car! For weeks now I been circling Dover as Truex's next win. Last season he posted 6.5 average finish, 21.0 average start, 15.5 average running position and 86.7 driver rating. The past two races he been one on a tear and he will eventually rip off a win and it might be this weekend! Historically speaking, he holds 15.8 average finish with 8 Top 10s and 12 Top 20s in 18 career starts!
88-Dale Jr: Dover isn't Dale Jr best track, but he probably better than most even realize. 5 Of the past 6 races here have ended inside the Top 11 for Dale Jr. Including an 2nd place run in 2013. Last season he posted 13.0 average finish, 19.0 average start, 13.5 average running position and 87.3 driver rating. Dale Jr is having a great season, so I wouldn't rule out another top 5 from him this weekend. Currently he is on a streak of 3 straight Top 5 finishes dating back to Talladega.
Also don't forget to check out Nascar Behind The Wall! Good blog for all your basic Nascar needs. Such as track schedule, Entry lists, Race Preview,etc. All in one easy location!
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
