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After 3 short tracks and an restrictor plate in the past 5 Sprint Cup Races , we turn our attention back to bulk of the schedule. Kansas is an 1.5 mile Intermediate racetrack. This is the ideal track I want after a crapshoot like Talladega. From a fantasy vantage point , Kansas is a very versatile track. There several approaches you can take when attacking Kansas.
Obviously using popular big name drivers is the primary path. However there will be plenty of non-main stream options who could pack a powerful punch. In today's preview , we will look at track stats from Atlanta , Fontona , Texas and Vegas. Data from those tracks will give us a good insight in who will be fast! Also looking at the past few Kansas races isn't a bad idea either.
1-Jamie Mac: JMac will have a lot of potential , but his recent efforts at Kansas scary the hell out of me! Last season he held 32.0 average finish , 12.5 average start , 14.5 average running position , 27 laps led and 89.7 driver rating. He was running inside the top 5 twice last season before a mechanical issue ruined his day. On other 1.5 mile racetracks in 2015 (minus Atlanta - Wreck) , he have compiled 8.5 average finish , 10.0 average start , 12.0 average running position , 9 laps led and 90.4 driver rating. From career point of view , he have 16 starts with 20.6 average finish and 9 Top 20. Before last season bad luck at Kansas , JMac had 4 straight finishes of 16th or better. Including 1 Top 10. He also have formed consistency this season. Only once since Atlanta 38th place finish have JMac finished worse than 14th. That was at Fontana where he ended 21st.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski was solid last season at Kansas , but was hit by the bad luck bug. He had finishes of 36th and 13th. However he did lead in both events. This season on similar tracks , BK have compiled 5.5 average finish , 8.5 average start, 8.5 average running position , 39 laps led and 107.6 driver rating. Last season at Kansas , he held 24.5 average finish , 4.5 average start , 14.5 average running position , 15 laps led , and 83.7 driver rating. He was much better than his finishing positions. Honestly feel like Keselowski was a little bit better on the older Kansas surface.
4-Kevin Harvick: Don't get fancy and try to leave Harvick off your roster. He was awesome here last season. Harvick held 7.0 average finish , 1.0 average start (2 poles) , 5.5 average running position , and 180 laps led. Not to mention , he been a machine on similar tracks in 2015! He have compiled 1.8 average finish , 6.0 average start , 3.0 average running position , 388 laps led and 133.6 driver rating. In other words , he basically been unstoppable! In 18 career starts , Harvick holds 11.5 average finish with 1 win and 15 Top 20s.Only once since 2006 (13 races) have Harvick finished worse than 15th. Including 9 straight finishes of 12th or better. In that 9-race Top 12 streak , he have racked up 5 Top 6s finishes.
5-Kasey Kahne: The only type track I trust Kahne on is the Intermediates. We have a lot of them coming up starting this week. I like Kasey a lot going forward. Especially over the next two races! He almost auto-starts for me in Yahoo. Last season he held an 12.5 average finish , 13.5 average start , 8.5 average running position , 24 laps led and 102.3 driver rating. Most noticeably he finished 3rd in last season event. He been strong on similar tracks in 2015. He have compiled 14.0 average finish , 9.5 average running position , 6 laps led and 95.4 driver rating. His should be much better , but found trouble at Atlanta and Las Vegas! I cannot say enough how impressed I been. Kasey looking like his 2013-self. Since joining HMS (6 races) , Kasey have managed 4 Top 8 finishes. Including 3 Top 4 finishes. His past two spring races have ended in 2nd and 3rd.
10-Danica Patrick: Kansas is arguably Danica's best racetrack in the NSCS. Last season she finished 7th and 16th. Looking at the 2nd race , she wasn't all too impressive. Started 29th , finished 16th , held 24.0 average running position and 67.9 driver rating. She have shown significant improvement from last season. On similar tracks in 2015 , Patrick have compiled 19.5 average finish , 20.5 average start , 20.3 average running position , 0 laps led and 69.7 driver rating. I expect another top 20 from Danica , but I doubt she will repeat her well-documented 7th place run from one year ago.
11-Denny Hamlin: Honestly not really loving any of the JGR guys. I think they all have decent potential though. Last season he compiled 12.5 average finish , 27.5 average start , 15.0 average running position , 0 laps led and 80.3 driver rating. In those races he finished 7th and 18th. I think Gibbs much more further along in terms of competitiveness than last season. The numbers don't show it though. At the other three 1.5 mile racetracks in 2015 , Hamlin have compiled 18.0 average finish , 13.7 average start , 11.0 average running position , 14 laps led and 95.1 driver rating. Several things immediately jump out at me! First is his average running position (11.0) and driver rating (95.1). Why? Because he ranked 9th in both categories. The 2nd thing that stands out is his average finish (18.0). Why? He finished 41st at Atlanta. He had finishes of 5th and 11th at Texas and Vegas. Not too bad. Good enough for 6th-best in the series.
16-Greg Biffle: The Biffle and RFR guys are having a tough season! Big surprise , right? Remember when he use to be good here? "Use to" and Greg Biffle coming pretty common these days. Last season he compiled 15.5 average finish , 10.5 average start , 15.5 average running position , 0 laps led and 78.1 driver rating. Cannot say I seen a performance in 2015 on Intermediate tracks that says Biffle can back those numbers up. On similar tracks in 2015 , he have compiled 22.0 average finish , 20.8 average start , 20.8 average running position , 0 laps led and 66.7 driver rating. Expect another Top 20 from Biff. He may sniff the top 15 before the checkers , but I wouldn't bank on it though.
18-Erik Jones: There will be various opinion on Jones this week. He officially making his Cup debut. I was pretty impressive by the way he filled in for Hamlin. So I will definitely think he can take the 18 JGR Toyota places while Kyle recovering. Really hard to judge him because of lackluster experience at this level. If Jones can keep it clean , then he potentially could end up in the top 20 when it all said and done.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards continue his rough start at Talladega! If he gonna break out , then expect it to be at Kansas. Last season he compiled 5.5 average finish , 8.0 average start , 11.5 average running position , 6 laps led and 97.5 driver rating. Those are some very good numbers! On other 1.5 mile tracks , he have held 21.3 average finish , 11.7 average start , 11.7 average running position , 2 laps led and 91.8 driver rating. Edwards have been strong on 1.5 intermediate racetracks this season! Its pretty obvious by his 11.7 average running position. If he can break out of his funk , then watch out for the 19 team. In 15 career starts , Edwards have 10.1 average finish with 11 Top 10 finishes. Only twice since 2008 (11 races) have Edwards have finished worse than 10th. Including 3 straight finishes of 6th or better.
20-Matt Kenseth: The best JGR driver this season been Matt Kenseth! Last season at Kansas , Kenseth held 11.5 average finish , 27.5 average start , 17.5 average running position , 1 lap led and 82.1 driver rating. Like I pointed out with Hamlin , The JGR guys are further along in terms of competitiveness this season. On similar tracks in 2015 , Kenseth have compiled 17.0 average finish , 15.5 average start, 10.8 average running position , 54 laps led, and 93.4 driver rating. In 18 career starts , Kenseth an 14.2 average finish with 2 wins and 10 Top 10s. Only once since 2008 (11 races) have Kenseth finished worse than 13th. Including 9 straight finishes of 13th or better. 8 Times he have finished inside the top 10. Kenseth won twice in the past 5 Kansas races.
22-Joey Logano: The guy who may slip under the radar? Logano! An interesting trend have formed. The past 5 NSCS winners this season (dating back Martinsville winner's Denny Hamlin) have finished outside the top 10 the race before! Logano finished 33rd at Talladega. Last season he held 2.5 average finish (Series-best) , 3.0 average start (2nd-best) , 3.0 average running position (Series-best) , 185 laps led (Series-best) and 136.7 driver rating (Series-best). Logano isn't slipping off my radar. I have only Harvick and Johnson ranked ahead of Logano in my personal rankings. At similar tracks in 2015 , Logano have compiled 6.3 average finish , 5.5 average start, 6.3 average running position , 150 laps led and 110.7 driver rating. Most noticeably Logano have led in three of those races (Vegas , Texas and Atlanta). His ability to qualify up front have been huge for him! Logano have knocked off 3 straight finishes of 4th or better at Kansas. Including a win last fall.
24-Jeff Gordon: I would be much higher on Gordon if this was still 2014. He was very solid last season. He held 7.5 average finish , 9.0 average start , 10.5 average running position , 10 laps led and 105.7 driver rating. At similar tracks in 2015 , Gordon have compiled 19.0 average finish , 13.8 average start, 14.0 average running position , 6 laps led and 83.7 driver rating. Gordon haven't impressed me this season on this type track. Never seems to have his car right. In 18 career starts , Gordon holds 10.2 average finish with 3 wins and 12 Top 10s. Gordon have finished inside the top 15 in the past 5 races at Kansas. Including 2 of the past 3 inside the top 3. Most noticeably he won last season race in the spring.
27-Paul Menard: Menard is having a great season! He is coming off another solid effort at Talladega. Last season at Kansas he held 13.0 average finish , 14.5 average start , 16.0 average running position , 0 laps led , and 78.9 driver rating. He finished 17th and 9th in those race. He been solid on similar tracks this season. He have compiled 17.5 average finish , 14.0 average start , 15.3 average running position , 1 lap led and 76.7 driver rating. His past two races on the Intermediate tracks stood out to me! If I put him on my Yahoo roster , it may be because of how impressed I was by him at Texas. Remember that was also a night race.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman isn't exactly my first choice as a fantasy option. However you could probably do much worse. Last season he held 8.5 average finish , 12.0 average start , 10.0 average running position , 6 laps led and 97.5 driver rating at Kansas. Newman actually been quite solid on the Intermediate tracks this season. On similar tracks in 2015 , Newman have compiled 7.5 average finish , 7.5 average start , 11.8 average running position , 14 laps led and 93.1 driver rating. Not terrible numbers, unfortunately his overall fantasy value isn't very high in most format. Mainly due to his lack of upside and/or potential.
41-Kurt Busch: Busch will undoubtedly will have one of the fastest cars this weekend! Last season he was pretty bad in terms of final finishing position. He finished 29th and 42nd. Fortunately expect him to rebound very nicely this season. Tony Gibson was Crew Chief for Danica Patrick last season. She finished 7th and 16th. At Fontona and Texas , Busch compiled 8.5 average finish , 1.0 average start (2 poles) , 5.0 average running position , 110 laps led and 119.2 driver rating. Those are some impressive numbers. Expect least another top 10 from Busch.
42-Kyle Larson: Minus Talladega , Larson have finished 4 of his previous 6 races inside the top 12. On similar tracks in 2015, Larson have compiled 21.3 average finish , 6.3 average start, 11.8 average running position , 0 laps led and 85.6 driver rating. His finishes this season don't even come close to how well he ran. Just look at his average running position of 11.8. That's good enough for 10th-best in the series. Last season , Larson held 7.0 average finish , 11.5 average start , 9.5 average running position , 0 laps led and 103.9 driver rating. Expect least another top 15 from Larson!
43-Aric Almirola: Everyone talk about how great of the season Martin Truex Jr is having , but how about some love for Aric Almirola? The dude been impressive! After 10 races , he have 9 finishes inside the top 20. Including 6 Top 15s as well. Kansas is one of Aric's best high-speed Intermediate racetracks. In the past 4 races , he have 3 Top 10s. More impressively , he have started inside the top 6 in the 3 of the past 5 Kansas races. I believe Aric is performing better than ever. So he play be primed for another top 10.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson been a stud on the 1.5 high-speed intermediate racetracks in 2015! He have compiled 14.3 average finish , 17.0 average start , 10.3 average running position , 356 laps led , and 119.1 driver rating. Misleading however! Minus Las Vegas (wrecked out) , Johnson have an impressive 1.0 average finish (2 wins) , 21.0 average start , 4.5 average running position , 220 laps led and 132.1 driver rating. I am impressed about his average running position of 4.5. Because he started pretty deep in the field at Atlanta. Hard to contain an ARP that high , unless you're ridiculously fast. In the past 12 Kansas races , only once have he finished worse than 9th place. That was last fall race's (finished 40th). Before that finish , he had 11 straight Top 10 finishes. Including 6 Top 3 finishes.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex have had a great season and quite frankly I haven't been surprised. I was very high on him back in the offseason. At end of last season , there were several races that Martin really performed well at. Kansas was one of them. He finished 4th last fall. Actually 4 of the past 6 Kansas races , he have knock off an top 5 finish. On similar tracks in 2015 , he have compiled 6.3 average finish , 12.3 average start , 9.0 average running position , 8 laps led and 104.6 driver rating. Expect another top 10 from Truex this week.
88-Dale Jr: Junior Nation probably still partying hard! Well don't stop the party , because expect another great effort by Dale Jr at Kansas. Last season Dale had finishes of 5th and 39th. In the fall , he had a rocket! However a blew tire ended his day while leading. Don't sleep on Junior though. On similar tracks in 2015 , Dale have compiled 4.0 average finish , 13.8 average start , 6.0 average running position , 5 laps led and 114.4 driver rating. Expect another strong run by the 88 team.
**All stats from DriverAverages & FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Email - JeffNathan74@yahoo.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans
