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We are headed to Martinsville (a general favorite among fans), after the Easter break. I love Martinsville. It have a personality to it in my opinion. You just don't become a master at this place overnight. This is a rhythm racetrack, you have to get in a rhythm lap after lap. What I love the most about this place is, you cannot compare it anywhere else. There is no comparable track on the schedule, so we have to go based on past history at Martinsville. I am excited (even though I won't be there this year) for this race. Will Jimmie Johnson score another Martinsville win? Will Matt Kenseth finally catch a break? And will CGR rebound back after tough start to the season? Let's get started on today's Preview!
Preview -
1-JMac: CGR have ran pretty bad all season long and I am not really banking on JMac to suddenly turn into a top 10 driver this week. Unless #1 crew made some serious improvements over the break. He scored his first top 10 of the season at ACS, but like most races he had only about 15th to 20th place car. However Martinsville is a very good racetrack for him, so there reason to believe he could knock out another top 10 finish this week. Over the past 4 races (2 seasons) at Martinsville, he have compiled 17.5 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 99.1 driver rating. JMac typically runs his best on the shorter-flats and his recent results at Martinsville backs that up. Over the past 6 races (since 2013), he have compiled 4 Top 10 finishes. He have had some noticeable finishes over the past three seasons too. Starting with Spring 2014 (he finished 42nd), but he was running top 5 before Dale Jr put him in the wall. Which pretty much ended his day after that. Later that season in 2014, he backed up his strong top 5 run with an 16th place finish. Before fading down the leaderboard late, he started on the pole and led 84 laps. While posting 105.5 driver rating and 7.0 average running position. His most recent noticeable finish was last fall (2015) where he finished 2nd, after starting from the 4th position. I personally don't think he get an top 10 finish this week (sorry, just not convinced that CGR is legit anymore), but I do see an solid teen finish though.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is having a solid season so far, but things could get tough for him this weekend. Why? Well he haven't had much luck at this place lately. Over the past 4 races (2 seasons), he have compiled 25.8 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 84.9 driver rating. He also have led 161 laps over that 4-race span. However 143 of those 161 laps came this past fall (where getting caught up in a wreck on a restart). He finished 2nd last spring and led 18 laps. He almost won that race though. Then he had finishes of 38th and 31st in 2014. Believe in the fall race of 2014, he had some type of issue go wrong with his car. Regardless, he have not gotten the finishes that he deserves. Prior to his slugglish slump (past 4 races), he started off his career very well. In his first 8 starts (2010-2013 seasons). In his first 8 races at Martinsville, he posted 6 Top 12 finishes. Including 4 straight Top 9 finishes before some poor finishes recently. Brad should be a top 10 driver headed into the race, but will he finish there is the question.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon have been a popular fantasy option so far this season and have shown great potential so far. I think Dillon have some great runs in front of him, but I think they will mainly come on the intermediate racetrack though. I don't think he will be as consistent on the shorter (1 mile or less) racetracks though. Marinsville falls under the short track category (obviously). Believe it or not, Dillon have found plenty of success so far at Martinsville. Despite posting 21.3 average finish with 23.0 average running position and 63.5 driver rating. He have managed finishes of 15th (debut - 2014), 12th (Fall 2014 - rookie season) and 18th (Last fall - 2015). His lone poor finish was in spring 2015 (last spring), where an electrical problem ended his day in 41st place. While he have managed 3 Top 18 finishes in 4 races, he have not performed well overall. Even last fall with (Slugger as CC), he didn't perform well. Only posted 22.0 average running position and 63.7 driver rating. That not going to cut it as a quality fantasy option. RCR and the 3 team have improved since then, but I don't see an top 10 finish in his future this weekend though.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is having a strong season (again) and should be a heavy contender at Martinsville. Harvick have been easily one of the strongest fantasy options at Martinsville since joining SHR. Over the past two seasons (4 races), he have compiled 14.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 102.4 driver rating. His 102.4 driver rating should be a strong indicator of his strong performances at Martinsville. He also holds the 6th-best average running position in the series, which should also tell you something about his performances. He have finished 4 of the past 5 races here in the top 8. His strongest performance was last spring, where he had the car to beat (him or Hamlin probably did) and led 154 laps before fading later in the race. He posted 129.0 driver rating (2nd-best to Hamlin's 134.9) and the best-running position of 4.0. He backed that up in the fall with another solid top 5 car, but finished 8th once again. He wasn't quite as strong in the fall though.
5-Kasey Kahne: It seems like every week, I am saying terrible things about Kasey Kahne. Well why change things now. I am known for hatred for Kahne (not against him personally though) and it pretty obvious why. The dude cannot do shit (sorry for the language) in top-tier equipment. Hate to see what he would do is sub-par equipment. Regardless I am not on the Kahne train and I wouldn't even consider him at this point. Least not until he shows some consistency. Over the past 4 races (2 seasons), he have compiled 20.5 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 74.9 driver rating. He basically been top 10 or bust since joining HMS. In 8 career races (since 2012), he have posted 4 finishes inside the top 11 and 4 finishes of 22nd or worse. Ouch! I will take my chances with the alligators down in Florida (I am joking, but you get the point). Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 20 with top 15 potential probably. But him finishing somewhere in the 20s or up inside the top 10 wouldn't surprise. Just do yourself a favor and try to avoid him. He's a ticking time bomb (refer to his results this season), you better hope you don't have him when he goes off.
11-Denny Hamlin: I would like Hamlin a lot more this week, if he haven't struggled this season to perform well or show any type of consistency. Obviously those are valid concerns, but I don't that is much concerning. I do believe past history is more important. Martinsville doesn't change too much from year to year, so I think Hamlin will be fine. Also aero isn't too much of a factor at Martinsville, so this new package won't have much of a effect on him. Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 7.8 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 107.1 driver rating. He won this race a year ago in spring 2015. He probably had the 2nd-best car in my opinion to Kevin Harvick. It was close though. He followed that up with an 3rd place finish in the fall race. Hamlin have been arguably the best driver in the series since the 2008 season (15 races). Over the past 15 races, he have won 5 times (which is 30% of the time) and have posted 9 Top 5 finishes (60% of the time). 11 of those 15 races ended inside the top 7. More recently , he have finished 4 of the past 5 races inside the top 8. To further make a case for Denny, he have led in 12 of the past 13 Martinsville races. So in simple terms, Denny Hamlin is pretty much a lock to be a top 5 driver headed into the weekend.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: I am pumped for Ricky Stenhouse Jr after an impressive 5th-place run (that was awesome to see) at Cali. However we better pump the brakes on Stenhouse for least a week or two though. Most recently, Stenhouse was quoted saying something along the lines that RFR short-track program still needs some work. Now when a driver makes comments like that, I usually take their words for it. Not to mention, I consider Martinsville as Ricky's worst racetrack. Over the past 4 races, he have compiled 33.5 average finish with 31.5 average running position and 46.8 driver rating. Those numbers are absolutely ugly as whole. In 6 career races (dating back to 2013 season - rookie year), he have only one finish better than 25th (15th - best career finish in 2014). In his other 5 races, his finishes look like this: 40th, 39th, 40th, 31st and 25th. In all 5 of those races, he failed to post an driver rating of 55.0 or better. That right there some tell you had poorly he have performed. I don't even have to look at the results. Now RFR have improved a lot since last season (based on the results), but I still feel like Stenhouse's main fantasy value is on the intermediate racetracks. I view him a top 25 driver with top 20 potential. His track record scares the shit out of me, so I am staying away from him altogether.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch have been one of the strongest driver this season and there is no reason to believe that he will go cold any time soon. Clearly last time we were at the track, Busch didn't get the finish he wanted at Cali. However great drivers always bounce back from disappointing finishes. He been one of the best drivers in the series at Martinsville. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 10.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. Over the past 6 races at Martinsville, Busch have finished inside the top 15 in every race. Only other driver to do that? Nobody! That's correct, Busch is only driver to have 6 straight top 15 finishes entering the weekend at Martinsville. That's something I love very much. He have managed 3 Top 5 finishes over his past 6 races as well. Busch should be an easy top 10 driver (more than likely top 5) entering the weekend's practices. He already have 4 Top 5 finishes on the season and could make it 5 Top 5 in 6 races come Sunday.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards have been strong all season long (top 5 driver in every race arguably) and should contend his strong run at Martinsville. He doesn't have the most impressive track record, but with JGR equipment he definitely have some great potential though. Considering all three of his teammates have found plenty of success in recent seasons at Martinsville. Kenseth, Busch and Hamlin all have been top 5 drivers at one time or another in recent events here. Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 16.0 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 86.1 driver rating. Edwards haven't found much success at Martinsville in his career. Over the past 16 races, he have only managed 4 Top 10 finishes and his top 10 finish was in 2011. However he had a top 5/top 10 car last spring, but believe he had a penalty or something that ruined his day (finished 17th). Edwards is running much better than he was this time last year, so I expect him to be least a top 10 driver. Kenseth is a great example. Ever since he joined JGR, he have been a stud at Martinsville. I think Edwards could have the same effect compared to his recent numbers, as RFR never had a short-track program like JGR does.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth returns to Martinsville after a major incident that drove shockwaves through the Nascar community last fall. However things aren't exactly perfect for Matt Kenseth at the moment. He have had nothing but bad luck this season. He got knocked out of the lead at Daytona but teammate Denny Hamlin. He had a major penalty at Atlanta that cost him a potential win. He wrecked out at Vegas. Then he had a penalty late in the Cali's race. Talk about terrible luck, right? Will his luck change at Martinsville? It very well could. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.5 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 113.0 driver rating. Since joining JGR, he have been a top 15 machine here (minus last fall). Before being parked last fall, he had 5 straight Top 14 finishes. Overall 6 of the past 10 races have ended inside the top 6. Including 4 straight Top 6 finishes before his 38th-place finish last fall. In fact, he led least 1 lap dating back to the October 2011 (8 straight races).
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney does not have any experience at the cup level at Martinsville, so his fantasy value is questionable. But the 21 team have been fast all season, so there no reason to believe he won't be able to least contend for a top 20 finish. However I believe his inexperience will hold him back as a young driver. I don't think this place is comparable to any other racetrack on the schedule. I am not really sure what to expect from him, but for now I am gonna wait to see what he offer in practice!
22-Joey Logano: Say hello to my personal favorite fantasy option this week! I love Joey Logano. I have that ''feeling'' about him this week. I just love what he brings to the table. He have been the best driver over the past two seasons at Martinsville and not enough people have him on their radar. He have been the best driver in every category. Over the past 4 races, he have compiled 12.3 average finish with 5.5 average running position and 117.9 driver rating. He finished 37th last fall after being wrecked by Kenseth. Excluding that race, his numbers look like this: 4.0 average finish (series-best), 3 Top 5s (series-best), 5.7 average running position (series-best), 207 laps led (2nd-best to Johnson's 296) and 119.8 driver rating (series-best). Those are some scary numbers, folks! Want to know something even more scary? His lowest driver rating over the past 4 races is 112.0 (posted last fall). ONLY 7 drivers have posted a higher driver rating than 112.0 over the past 4 races. I rest my case about Logano. He's my early pick to go to victory lane.
24-Chase Elliott: Much like Blaney, Chase Elliott lacks expeince and that could be his big downfall. Even though that could be said just about every track that he goes to though. Obvoiusly Chase isn't your average rookie (much like Blaney). Elliott does have one race under his belt at Martinsville, but he wrecked in the opening laps of the race. So not like that data is relevant. As I mentioned with Blaney, I am going to play the wait and see game with Elliott. Personally I view him a top 20-type driver headed into practice.
27-Paul Menard: I am not really feeling Menard this season. His best race this season was back at Vegas, where he finished 15th. Actually pretty much all of his races this season have resulted in finishes from 15th to 18thplace. Minus PIR where he wrecked out though. He been okay at Martinsville, but Menard's bread and butter usually isn't the short tracks though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.5 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 74.6 driver rating. Menard struggled last season in both races. He finished 15th and 23rd. He failed to post an driver rating above 70.0 in either race. Which tells me, he was barely a teen-like driver in the race. Heck he may have not even been that, based on his 22.0 average running position. The positive news? He have managed 3 Top 15 finishes in the past 4 races at Martinsville. However I see another finish from 15th to 20th place from him though.
41-Kurt Busch: Busch have been bad fast all season long, but he have a huge road bump to overcome this weekend at Martinsville. Despite winning back in spring of 2014, he have struggled to find quality finishes at this racetrack over the years. Over the past 26 races (dating back to 2003 season), Busch have only managed 3 Top 10 finishes. That's no error folks! Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 21.3 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. While history isn't on Busch's side. There reasons to believe that Busch can be a solid fantasy option this weekend. Why? While for starters, look at his ARP (Average Running Position). It's 11.0 which tells me, he been pretty good here recently. Also his 94.5 driver rating backs that claim up. Let's look at the race as individuals. Spring 2014, he went to victory. Even though he had a damaged car from incident with Keselowski (multiple times). He followed that up with another strong performance, after leading 22 laps. However he got caught up in another incident and finished 36th place. He finished 14th last spring, but he had a top 5 car for the race. IF he didn't get a penalty in middle of the race. He never really was able to fully recover from that. Of course last fall, Busch got involved in the Kenseth's incident. So while there clear risk with him, I do see why he could be a great fantasy option. Given he finally can catch another break at Martinsville.
42-Kyle Larson: CGR performing bad as a whole and Kyle Larson heading to his worst's racetrack, probably is not a good combo to have as a fantasy pick. I am not very high on Larson this week. Kyle is a great talent, but that 42 team is just off-balance. Over the past 3 races (missed last spring race) at Martinsivlle, he have compiled 25.3 average finish with 19.7 average running position and 66.6 driver rating. His best career race was last fall, where he collected his first career top 20 finish at this place. Needless to say, I don't have pinned on my fantasy radar this week. And probably won't going forward, least not until I see some improvements from him.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is typically a heavy favorite and a very popular fantasy option at Martinsville, however I don't think he will quite peform up to everyone high standards. Why? Well people typically standards of Johnson is dominating at Martinsville like we have saw in recent years. The main line of thinking is the competition is improved than it was 5 or so years ago. There more than a few drivers who could go up there and challenge Johnson. I just don't get the feeling, he will go out and be the man to beat like he was before 2013 season. Over the past 4 races, he have compiled 20.3 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. He have not performed too well over the past 3 races. He have managed 0 Top 10 finishes and have failed to lead a lap. Including two finishes in the 30s. I view him a top 5 guy headed into the weekend, when considering all the success he have found over the years here. Hard to bet against him when it comes down to it.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Boy when I said to avoid Truex at Cali in the fantasy nascar update, I sure nailed that one. Obviously that had to do with more bad luck than anything. Regardless he have finished worse in every single start this season. That is not a good sign at all. However he finished around 30th at Cali, so I would say he will break that trend this weekend. Least I sure hope he can. Safe to say, the bar isn't too high. I view him as a top 10 guy headed into practice. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 17.8 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 77.2 driver rating. His only real relevant numbers are from last season in my opinion. He finished 6th in both races last season. He also have been a strong performer this season at every racetrack, he have gone to. So it only natural to think, he will once again have top 10 (if not top 5) potential.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr have been one of the best kept secrets at Martinsville and is tied with Joey Logano for the most top 5 finishes here over the past 2 seasons (4 races). Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 101.3 driver rating. His numbers across the board are pretty solid overall. He have been rock-solid since joining HMS in 2008. Over the past 16 races (8 seasons), he have managed 11 Top 8 finishes. Downside? 4 of his other 5 finishes have ended outside of the top 20. So he basically been top 10 or bust. He have compiled 3 Top 4 finishes over his past 4 races. I really like Dale Jr headed into the weekend and should be a strong fantasy option in almost all formats.
***All Stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
