Saturday, March 05, 2016

Fantasy Nascar Update (Vegas)

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Hello and welcome to this week's Fantasy Nascar Update article. One of the primary posts of this website. The project is to give you a idea how the top drivers in the series stack up with the competition, in a Yahoo-based ranking format. But of course the content can be use for any format though. I compiled my ranks in each tier based off past history, consistency, qualifying/practice results, common sense and of course personal thoughts (and/or opinions). The key to success at Vegas will be stacking your lineup with big names that could have success this weekend. I don't see many sleepers or surprises up inside the top 10 like we saw last week at Atlanta. Alright here today's fantasy nascar update below! Enjoy!

A:

1. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson has the car to beat this weekend in my opinion. When I was tracking lap times in practice, he not only had one of the best cars but he also had the most consistent lap times overall. Johnson is also a 4-time winner at this racetrack, so I feel pretty good about him since he knows something about this racetrack. He looked really good last week at Atlanta, so that gives me extra confident that he will be strong at Vegas. Also he have consistency been one of the strongest drivers in everything we have done this weekend across the board. From Thursday's test sessions to Saturday's final practice, he have been bad fast. There is no reason to believe that he won't be fast once again at Las Vegas.

My Overall Ranking: 1st

2. Kevin Harvick - I didn't pay much attention to Harvick this weekend, even though I was keeping tabs on him to compare with other front runners. He was pretty good compared to other drivers from what I saw and should be a top 5 contender for Sunday's race. Harvick won this race one year ago and I think he could repeat that same success this year again. However he wasn't blazing fast nor was overly impressive this weekend compared to other top drivers. But we have seen this episode before and it usually ends with Kevin Harvick running up front and leading plenty of laps. I think he will definitely see Harvick contend for least a top 5 finish and possibly go to victory lane.

My Overall Ranking: 2nd

3. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth made a strong argument as possibly having the best car in last week's race at Atlanta. However he got kinda screwed over when his team made a race-winning mistake. But I don't think the 20 team will make that same mistake twice though. He have a very fast JGR car this weekend and have constantly one of the fastest cars in everything that they have done at Vegas thus far. He looked impressive in testing and looked just as good in all of the practice sessions. Add-in all of his success over the years at Vegas, and I think you get a winning combination. In my eyes, he is one of the heavy favorites to possibly win Sunday's race.

My Overall Ranking: 3rd

4. Joey Logano - Logano have a pretty good car and should be a strong  contender at Vegas. I thought both of the Penske cars had strong long run speed in their cars. Logano will roll off from the 2nd qualifying position and it hard to see him not leading some laps as well. Logano have done a great job over the past few seasons since joining Penske of turning front row starts into productive lap leading days. So if your league rewards lap led more than other, then I would recommend considering Joey as fantasy pick. He does not a impressive track record here, but he does have a very good car this weekend. I think he least finishes inside the top 5 or 7 positions. Will he win? I don't know, but he probably have good shot as any of the front runners. What makes me like Logano more than the driver below him? Consistency. He have proven, he can be one of the most consistent drivers in our sport at the highest level.

My Overall Ranking: 4th

5. Kurt Busch - I debated heavily where to rank Logano, Kurt Busch and Keselowski. I ended up choosing Logano and Busch as getting a spot in my top 5 ranking for this tier. I think Kurt will be good this weekend, but I get the feeling he will fade in latter stages of the race though. Which is why he isn't ranked higher. Honestly I kinda just disregarded his past history. Or otherwise he would probably been lower on my driver rankings. Busch should be a top 5 to top 10 driver headed into Sunday's race.

My Overall Ranking: 5th

Other Drivers - Keselowski (6th), Dale Jr (7th), Kyle Busch (9th), Hamlin (10th)

B:

1. Martin Truex Jr - Truex in my eyes is a top 10 driver headed into Sunday's race. However after watching him this weekend, I don't get the feeling he will be a top 5 driver though. He was pretty good in practice, but not enough for me to say that he was a legit race-winning contender. On the plus side, he does have a lot going for him though. Including 3 straight top 12 finishes and a 3rd-place run last season. Honestly I wouldn't be shocked by a top 5 finish, but I would say it unlikely based off of the lap times I seen in Saturday's practice session.

My Overall Ranking: 8th

2. Carl Edwards - Edwards have a rocketship for a racecar this weekend, but he will start way in the back sadly. If he didn't start in the back, then he would be unquestionably the top play in this tier of drivers. He had a fast primary and his backup looked even better on Saturday. I was pretty impressive by him overall. I personally think it could be risky to gamble with Edwards from the back in certain leagues. He would be gold on sites like Fox and Fantasy live (on Nascar.com), but he is being scored from 24th (not 39th) starting position. He should not have many problems making it back to the front though. I think he will finish inside the top 10 on Sunday, if everything goes according to plan for the 19 team.

My Overall Ranking: 11th

3. Austin Dillon - Austin Dillon have looked impressive since unloading in testing and arguably have just gotten better as the weekend have gone on. Every single practice or testing session at Vegas, he have looked fast. He qualified 5th and should contend for least a top 10 finish (or at worst a top 15), based on the lap times I saw him. I mean I was pretty blown away by some of the lap he put down. He put down the best-ten lap average in happy hour and was consistently fast throughout the day on Saturday. In fact, his team was so happy with his car in happy hour, the 3 team decided to wrap up practice about 15 minutes early. That tells me that the 3 team is feeling pretty good about themselves.

My Overall Ranking: 12th

4. Paul Menard - Paul Menard have looked pretty good this weekend (like both of his teammates have) and should easily contend for a top 15 finish. I thought Menard looked like the worst of the RCR cars and that is saying something, because I thought he had a solid piece. His crew chief thought so too. At end of practice, he said they have a fast piece for tomorrow race. I love when a team say something like that. It tells me that they are feeling pretty good about their chances. Not only does Menard have a fast car, but he have a stout track record at Vegas. He is currently riding a 5-race Top 12 streak here.

My Overall Ranking: 13th

5. Ryan Newman - The final spot came down to Newman and Kahne, I don't trust Kahne with my brother's life. So Newman was the obvious call. I also like that Newman along with teammates all have pretty fast cars. Newman is a consistent performer and will not cost your team a lot of points. I didn't really pay much attention to Newman, but based off the results I would say he is a top 15 driver headed into Sunday's race. Also it just common sense that Newman will be a good fantasy pick. Typically Newman is a top 10 to Top 15 driver on a weekly basis. Rarely will we see him finish outside of the 7th-15th place range. Unless he is really fast or have an issue during the race. So I am willing to bet he finishes somewhere inside the high single digits or low-teens.

My Overall Ranking: 14th

Other Drivers - Kahne (15th), Larson (16th), AJ Dinger (17th) and Stenhouse Jr (20th)

C:

1. Ryan Blaney - Blaney is the best driver in this tier and it probably isn't very close. He have had a fast car ever since unloading. And nothing that I have seen this weekend have indicated that it will change on Sunday. He is basically an 3rd Penske car and we all know that both the 2 and 22 will be up front most of the race. I think the 21 team will get Blaney up towards the front as well. Be watching out for that Ryan Blaney. I have a feeling he have a pretty good run on Sunday!

My Overall Ranking: 18th

2. Brian Vickers - Vickers have a better car than most would think and I expect him to be on the move early and often. I don't think he had as much as speed as he did on Friday, but he still should move up in the running order on Sunday. I am not expecting the world from him, but I think SHR will fix him up and he will contend and run up inside the top 15. But it hard to say where he will finish, since he haven't raced at a non-plate track since like the 2014 season (don't think he raced on one last season).

My Overall Ranking: 19th

3. Chase Elliott - Elliott should be a top 20 driver headed into Sunday's race and more than likely finish there too. But I am not really expecting anything beyond that. Really that all he was in practice and with no past data, I don't want to have my standards too high for him. Could he go out and possibly challenge for a top 15 finish? Sure, but I am not really banking on that. I think Elliott will continue to get better as the season goes on, so I am not pulling the trigger on him quite yet personally in Yahoo.

My Overall Ranking: 21st

Twitter - @JeffNathans18