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Preview -
1-JMac: I haven't been impressed by JMac one bit this season and quite frankly I think he have been by far at his worst on the intermediate racetracks. I thought for sure last week, he would have finished inside the top 15 at PIR. But he couldn't even managed that. At this point, I am not really sure if we can trust him. While he is not running terribly, he just not running where he holds enough fantasy value. Through four races this season, his best finish have been 16th (twice). He haven't been great at Cali either recently. With finishes of 21st (last season), 6th and 19th over the past three seasons. By far his best race was in the 2013 season, where he started 25th and finished 6th. While posting a solid 95.6 driver rating. Prior to finishing 6th in 2013, his last top 10 finish was in 2006. Interesting to note that he sweep the poles during the 2010 season, but finished 17th in both races (when Cali still had two dates on the schedule). Headed into the weekend, I don't see Jamie as nothing more than an top 20 fantasy option at this point. Also worth nothing that all of JMac's finishes this season have between 16th-21st. So you pretty much know what you are getting with him already!
2-Brad Keselowski: I would have considered this Brad's worst racetrack (not named Sonoma) and I still do for the most part. Outside of a win last season, I have not been impressed by him that much. His numbers here are pretty bad overall and it hard it understand why. He typically runs very well on the intermediate racetracks, but Cali have had his number more times than not. Minus his win last season (he won a pit strategy), he have finished 5 of his other 6 career races at Cali outside of the top 20. His best performance at Cali was probably last season where he started 8th and ran inside the top 10 for majority of the race. He also ran very well in 2014, but believe he had a blown tire in that race and finished a lap down. Even though he led a career-high 38 laps. So he may be turning a corner at this place, but we will see based on his performance this coming Sunday. He ran well on the intermediate racetracks this season so far. Top 10 run at Atlanta and followed that up with winning at Vegas (had the best car on the long run).
3-Austin Dillon: I am a believer in this kid. I knew he would step it up this season, but I wasn't expecting him to hop a few stairs on his way though. I am impressive with him! 4 Top 11 finishes in the first 4 races. He's last season's Martin Truex Jr. Nobody saw it coming (minus a few people) and you have jump on the bandwagon early and often. I think the big difference is Slugger (his crew chief), he is a amazing CC and builds fast cars. What is Slugger's strongest asset? He usually builds fast cars for the intermediate racetracks. Just ask Paul Menard about that one. I think Austin Dillon is going to be very strong this weekend. Just like he have been all season so far. He struggled here last season and only could managed an 16th place finish. But that was before Slugger was named crew chief. I think it unwise to based him off his first two seasons. His teammates were fast and finished inside the top 5 in 2015 at Cali. Not sure if that means much, but I like those type of things.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick have been pretty good this season on the intermediate racetracks (7th - twice) and had the car to beat back at Atlanta. Not real sure if that means much since I don't think either track is real comparable. I guess for this year's rule package it is relevant though. He been strong the past two seasons here. In 2015 (last season), he had a strong top 3 car and led 34 laps onto one of many 2nd place finishes during the 2015 season. In 2014, he was also very strong, but he blew a tire in the late going and never was able to recover. Prior to that, he probably had the 2nd or 3rd best car in that event. I don't think anyone had anything for Jimmie Johnson that weekend though, if my memory serves me correctly (pretty sure it does). Still Harvick was top 5 strong. Headed into the weekend, I view him as top 5 driver with winning-potential.
5-Kasey Kahne: There a reason why I try to avoid using Kasey Kahne at all costs (I have said it in every preview pretty much), because of his inconsistency! What you see is what you get with Kahne and it not very good. Kahne will either give you a decent points day or make you drink all night long, after realizing how stupid you were for believing he would finish well. For those at Phoenix that took that risk, probably found out that Kasey is still Kasey. I wouldn't expect anything different from him out in Cali, either. You basically will enjoy the results or hate yourself for picking him. Since joining HMS, he actually have produced pretty well. With 3 finishes from 9th-17th in his 4 starts since the 2012 season (HMS debut). His lone non-top 17 result was 41st in the 2014 season. However I wouldn't jump the gun just yet. He have not performed very well the past two season overall. From a performance point of view, he have been a middle-teen driver. Statically speaking, his 76.5 driver rating in 2015 (last season race) was an career-low when completing every lap in a race at Cali. So far this season, he have delivered mix results and performances. I really don't know what type of result to expect from him. To say the least, I will not be taking him into consideration at this point. Too many better options laying out there!
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin isn't someone that I really love this season on the intermediate. I hinted around this in the offseason that JGR weak link would be Denny Hamlin with his inconsistency. So far this season, my theory have held true and he probably won't turn it on until least the 2nd half of the season. No reason for him to turn it on though. Considering he already have a win and can pretty much cruise to the chase. Still very surprised he haven't ran better. He struggled pretty bad at Atlanta and Vegas. He wasn't a factor at all and with his equipment, he should be running least inside the top 10 every week. Even last week at Phoenix, he was again a non-factor and finished in latter part of the top 10. Better than what he was in previous weeks, but still he holds very little fantasy value in my opinion. Until he provides us with some consistency, without I don't see much upside in selecting him.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse Jr failed at Phoenix and I wasn't overly impressed him or anyone from RFR. Stenhouse ran the best among the three drivers and probably could have finished inside the top 20, if he didn't have a tire go down. However I think he can bounce back at the next few intermediate racetracks. I liked what I saw at both Vegas and Atlanta. I am not saying his results from those tracks will automatically transfer, but I do like his potential. As for Cali, I am not super high on him with a lackluster track history and coming off an 37th place finish at Pheonix. But I do think he is a top 20 driver headed into the weekend. I would rather wait until practice, before making a call on the 17 car.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch is red hot this season with 4 Top 5 finishes to start off the season (only driver in the series who can say that) and should be one of the heavy favorites this weekend at Cali. I like him a lot at this racetrack. He have won the past two times he have raced at Cali and have finished the past 4 races here inside the top 3. Overall he have been impressive over the past 15 races, with 12 Top 10 finishes and 7 Top 5 finishes. Hard to not like him this week. He was really good at Atlanta, but never got to show his full hand with starting last. He was strong at Vegas, especially in the later stages and almost won. If Busch is going to go to victory lane, I would think Cali is as a lock as they get. He been straight up impressive at this place and I don't expect that to change anytime soon. Everything is pointing to Busch being primed for a top 5 strong race headed into practice.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is hot right now with 3 Top 5 finishes in 4 races headed into Cali and could build on that come Sunday. It hard seeing Edwards slowing down any time soon. Minus the Atlanta race (involved in a wreck - minor damage; finished 19th), he have been one of the best drivers in the series. I thought he was really good at Atlanta until getting wrecked. Remember he started in the back, so he never got an chance to really shine like he would have liked to. He was inside the top 10 when he got involved in the wreck. He was strong at Vegas too and finished 5th. JGR bead and better tracks are these intermediate racetracks, so no surprise that Edwards have started off the season strongly. It helps that Edwards have an impressive track record here as well. With 5 straight Top 13 finishes and overall 9 Top 10 finishes in his past 12 races at Cali. Overall in 18 career races, Edwards have compiled 8 Top 5 finishes and 14 Top 10 finishes. Hard not to like those type of numbers.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth have been very strong this season, but he have yet to find victory lane for some reason. It may change this weekend though. He was leading this race last year until he had mechanical issues occur on a late pit stops. If a late caution didn't come out then he would have no doubt went to victory lane. Kenseth have found plenty of success at Cali and should be considered a major threat to win this weekend. In his previous two races at Cali with JGR, he had compiled finishes of 7th and 4th. In 23 career starts, he have compiled 10.4 average finish with 3 career wins. The last one coming in 2009. Looking at this season, he have been very strong at times. Especially at the intermediate tracks. Had the car to beat at Atlanta, but miscommunication between driver and crew cost him a potential win. He was also really good at Vegas and arguably had a potential top 3 or top 4 car, but lost control of his car and wrecked. His luck will eventually turn around and it could be this weekend. I personally expect the JGR cars to be strong at Cali!
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney is an awesome talent and should only get better as the season goes on, but man I have been impressed by him so far this season. The kid is gonna win eventually, but I think that will happen later in the year though. He drives for the wood bros, so he basically is an third Penske car. So there was no surprise when he finished 6th at Vegas (Logano and Keselowski finished 1st and 2nd). There no data at Cali to go on, but I believe he will be in the mix for a third straight top 10 finish! Man that would be impressive from this 21 team, but I wouldn't be surprised one bit if it happened.
22-Joey Logano: Logano looked pretty good at start of Phenoix, but then he just faded in latter part of the race. I was expecting him to be more of a threat, but never was that race-winning threat we all come to love (okay some of us). I think he will be under the radar in terms of popularity in fansay racing. I hoping he comes out swinging with a fast car. Remember the Penske cars were really strong not too long ago at Vegas. Especially on the longer runs, that was where they really were their strongest. Logano also was really good at Atlanta, but a pit road penalty slowed up his day. He been pretty good at Cali since joining Penske. He finished 3rd in his debut in the 22 car and led a career-high 40 laps and posted 127.0 driver rating. In 2014, he another strong car, but had issues during the race that forced him to make repairs behind the wall. Last season, he was strong once again and finished 7th. Never was a race-winning threat, but was easily a top 10 driver for the event. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a low-end Top 5 driver to a solid top 10 driver.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott have been the more impressive rookie (in my opinion), but unlikely Blaney he is more inconsistent (so far). Much like Blaney, we have no data to go at Cali with Elliott. I like Elliott a lot this week, I think he will keep running like he have been running. There really no reason to think he won't be least a top 15 driver. In fact, I am pretty sure he will find himself inside the top 10 before the weekend is overall. Obviously that a tall task, but these rookies are really good. So it wouldn't surprise me one bit if that occurred.
27-Paul Menard: Menard have not looked great this season in my opinion. He struggled at Atlanta and was only a top 25 driver, but somehow pulled out an 18th place finish. He struggled at Vegas too, according to my standard with an 15th place finish (not terrible - just lackluster compared to recent history). Then last week at Phoenix, he wrecked out and ran about 20th place during the race. However he does have a great racetrack coming up this week at Cali. This have been one of best tracks on schedule. He have compiled 3 straight Top 10 finishes and 5 straight Top 19 finishes overall since joining RCR in 2012. Obvously he have overperformed in last season's race with an 4th place finish. I am not expecting a repeat of that from Paul. I view him at best as a top 15 driver headed into the weekend. He will have a outside shot at finishing inside the top 10 on Sunday though.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is off have to good start in 2015 and have been a qualifying machine this season. Which have translated into some solid runs for the 41 team. Now he goes to (in my opinion) his best racetrack on schedule. I have felt for a long time this is his best track and always seems to run very well here. He could've won this race last season, if it wasn't for a late caution for Kyle Larson (I believe). He have been the best driver in the series (in my opinion) over the past 3 seasons with 3 Top 5 finishes (only driver to accomplish this). Including back-to-back 3rd place finishes. Like it or not, Busch is easily one of the best fantasy picks this week. His numbers are hard to match since the 2009 season (9 races). Over the past 9 races at Cali, Kurt have compiled 7 Top 9 finishes. Including 6 Top 6 finishes. Hard to not like him this week, I think he will be one of the strongest drivers this weekend once again!
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson was not very good at Phoenix (especially in latter stages of the race), but how about that 4-tire call by Crew Chief Chad Johnston to put the Cali driver in a great position for a solid finish. Now Larson have something going for him (momentum). Can he take advantage though? I don't really know. CGR have looked really off on the intermediate racetracks so far this season. However I thought the 42 team got Larson really good at Vegas (was running top 12 or top 13 before a pit road penalty), so there that for those that have no faith in him. As for Cali data, he have mixed finishes so far in his career. With an impressive 2nd-place run in his rookie season (2014) and 26th place finish last season. To be fair, he acutally ran pretty good in last season event. He wasn't overly impressive, but was ran top 15 for most of the day. Before wrecking in the final laps of the race. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 15 to top 20 driver, but I rather see practice before making predicitions on either of the CGR cars though.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is off to a great start to season so far. He won at Atlnata (probably had about the 2nd or 3rd best car), finished 3rd at Vegas (had the best car at times), and 11th at PIR (started in the rear - had top 5 car though). So obviously he been really good at the intermediate racetracks so far and I don't think that will change at Cali either. He have an impressive track record here and should be a easy top 5 driver headed into the weekend. In 21 career starts, he have compiled 5 wins (series-best), 15 Top 5 finishes (series-best) and 18 Top 10 finishes (Tie with Kenseth for the series-best). Solely looking at the past two seasons, you wouldn't know how good he actually is. He finished 9th in last season's event and finished a very disappointing 24th place in 2014. However he dominated in the 2014 race and had the best car. He led 104 of 209 laps, but a blown tire slowed Johnson day while leading late in the race. Johnson haven't really gotten the finishes over the past 4 seaosns (best finish was 9th), but it doesn't change how good he been here for his career. He's my early pick this win on Sunday!
78-Martin Truex Jr: After strong peformances at Daytona and Atlatna, Truex Jr have fell off a bit and have posted back-to-back finishes outside of the top 10. Still solid finishes, but not enough for me to say he is a must-have on your fantasy team this week. Add-in he have not found a lot of success lately at Cali with only 2 Top 10 finishes (4 total Top 20s) over his past 10 attempts. Obvioulsy it hard to judge Truex with only ran relvent past data is from last season in the 78 car. I personally don't love Truex this week, least not until I see him in practice. I would say he is a top 10 driver headed into the weekend, but at this point I am don't think he anything beyond that though.
88-Dale Jr: Junior had a great race at Phoenix and it was easily his best performance of the season. At times (early in the race), he had the car to beat but I don't think it was meant to be for him to go to victory lane at PIR. He couldn't run Harvick down in late stages of the race and couldn't stay with him on the last restart. He have ran well on the intermediate racetracks though. He was really good at Atlanta and led some laps, while eventually finishing 2nd. He was also pretty good at Vegas. Not a race-winning threat, but had something for the top 5 (ended up 8th place). So all in all, Dale Jr have shown the potential this season to win races. Add-in solid results recently at Cali, with 3 Top 6 finishes over the past 5 races. Along with 5 straight Top 12 finishes overall! He's a top 10 driver with top 5 upside in my opinion headed into the weekend.
Note - I do apologize for being late with this week's post and for the lack of stats. The combined of my busy schedule and laptop being down contributes to these occurrences.
**Stats from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Preview -
1-JMac: I haven't been impressed by JMac one bit this season and quite frankly I think he have been by far at his worst on the intermediate racetracks. I thought for sure last week, he would have finished inside the top 15 at PIR. But he couldn't even managed that. At this point, I am not really sure if we can trust him. While he is not running terribly, he just not running where he holds enough fantasy value. Through four races this season, his best finish have been 16th (twice). He haven't been great at Cali either recently. With finishes of 21st (last season), 6th and 19th over the past three seasons. By far his best race was in the 2013 season, where he started 25th and finished 6th. While posting a solid 95.6 driver rating. Prior to finishing 6th in 2013, his last top 10 finish was in 2006. Interesting to note that he sweep the poles during the 2010 season, but finished 17th in both races (when Cali still had two dates on the schedule). Headed into the weekend, I don't see Jamie as nothing more than an top 20 fantasy option at this point. Also worth nothing that all of JMac's finishes this season have between 16th-21st. So you pretty much know what you are getting with him already!
2-Brad Keselowski: I would have considered this Brad's worst racetrack (not named Sonoma) and I still do for the most part. Outside of a win last season, I have not been impressed by him that much. His numbers here are pretty bad overall and it hard it understand why. He typically runs very well on the intermediate racetracks, but Cali have had his number more times than not. Minus his win last season (he won a pit strategy), he have finished 5 of his other 6 career races at Cali outside of the top 20. His best performance at Cali was probably last season where he started 8th and ran inside the top 10 for majority of the race. He also ran very well in 2014, but believe he had a blown tire in that race and finished a lap down. Even though he led a career-high 38 laps. So he may be turning a corner at this place, but we will see based on his performance this coming Sunday. He ran well on the intermediate racetracks this season so far. Top 10 run at Atlanta and followed that up with winning at Vegas (had the best car on the long run).
3-Austin Dillon: I am a believer in this kid. I knew he would step it up this season, but I wasn't expecting him to hop a few stairs on his way though. I am impressive with him! 4 Top 11 finishes in the first 4 races. He's last season's Martin Truex Jr. Nobody saw it coming (minus a few people) and you have jump on the bandwagon early and often. I think the big difference is Slugger (his crew chief), he is a amazing CC and builds fast cars. What is Slugger's strongest asset? He usually builds fast cars for the intermediate racetracks. Just ask Paul Menard about that one. I think Austin Dillon is going to be very strong this weekend. Just like he have been all season so far. He struggled here last season and only could managed an 16th place finish. But that was before Slugger was named crew chief. I think it unwise to based him off his first two seasons. His teammates were fast and finished inside the top 5 in 2015 at Cali. Not sure if that means much, but I like those type of things.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick have been pretty good this season on the intermediate racetracks (7th - twice) and had the car to beat back at Atlanta. Not real sure if that means much since I don't think either track is real comparable. I guess for this year's rule package it is relevant though. He been strong the past two seasons here. In 2015 (last season), he had a strong top 3 car and led 34 laps onto one of many 2nd place finishes during the 2015 season. In 2014, he was also very strong, but he blew a tire in the late going and never was able to recover. Prior to that, he probably had the 2nd or 3rd best car in that event. I don't think anyone had anything for Jimmie Johnson that weekend though, if my memory serves me correctly (pretty sure it does). Still Harvick was top 5 strong. Headed into the weekend, I view him as top 5 driver with winning-potential.
5-Kasey Kahne: There a reason why I try to avoid using Kasey Kahne at all costs (I have said it in every preview pretty much), because of his inconsistency! What you see is what you get with Kahne and it not very good. Kahne will either give you a decent points day or make you drink all night long, after realizing how stupid you were for believing he would finish well. For those at Phoenix that took that risk, probably found out that Kasey is still Kasey. I wouldn't expect anything different from him out in Cali, either. You basically will enjoy the results or hate yourself for picking him. Since joining HMS, he actually have produced pretty well. With 3 finishes from 9th-17th in his 4 starts since the 2012 season (HMS debut). His lone non-top 17 result was 41st in the 2014 season. However I wouldn't jump the gun just yet. He have not performed very well the past two season overall. From a performance point of view, he have been a middle-teen driver. Statically speaking, his 76.5 driver rating in 2015 (last season race) was an career-low when completing every lap in a race at Cali. So far this season, he have delivered mix results and performances. I really don't know what type of result to expect from him. To say the least, I will not be taking him into consideration at this point. Too many better options laying out there!
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin isn't someone that I really love this season on the intermediate. I hinted around this in the offseason that JGR weak link would be Denny Hamlin with his inconsistency. So far this season, my theory have held true and he probably won't turn it on until least the 2nd half of the season. No reason for him to turn it on though. Considering he already have a win and can pretty much cruise to the chase. Still very surprised he haven't ran better. He struggled pretty bad at Atlanta and Vegas. He wasn't a factor at all and with his equipment, he should be running least inside the top 10 every week. Even last week at Phoenix, he was again a non-factor and finished in latter part of the top 10. Better than what he was in previous weeks, but still he holds very little fantasy value in my opinion. Until he provides us with some consistency, without I don't see much upside in selecting him.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse Jr failed at Phoenix and I wasn't overly impressed him or anyone from RFR. Stenhouse ran the best among the three drivers and probably could have finished inside the top 20, if he didn't have a tire go down. However I think he can bounce back at the next few intermediate racetracks. I liked what I saw at both Vegas and Atlanta. I am not saying his results from those tracks will automatically transfer, but I do like his potential. As for Cali, I am not super high on him with a lackluster track history and coming off an 37th place finish at Pheonix. But I do think he is a top 20 driver headed into the weekend. I would rather wait until practice, before making a call on the 17 car.
18-Kyle Busch: Busch is red hot this season with 4 Top 5 finishes to start off the season (only driver in the series who can say that) and should be one of the heavy favorites this weekend at Cali. I like him a lot at this racetrack. He have won the past two times he have raced at Cali and have finished the past 4 races here inside the top 3. Overall he have been impressive over the past 15 races, with 12 Top 10 finishes and 7 Top 5 finishes. Hard to not like him this week. He was really good at Atlanta, but never got to show his full hand with starting last. He was strong at Vegas, especially in the later stages and almost won. If Busch is going to go to victory lane, I would think Cali is as a lock as they get. He been straight up impressive at this place and I don't expect that to change anytime soon. Everything is pointing to Busch being primed for a top 5 strong race headed into practice.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is hot right now with 3 Top 5 finishes in 4 races headed into Cali and could build on that come Sunday. It hard seeing Edwards slowing down any time soon. Minus the Atlanta race (involved in a wreck - minor damage; finished 19th), he have been one of the best drivers in the series. I thought he was really good at Atlanta until getting wrecked. Remember he started in the back, so he never got an chance to really shine like he would have liked to. He was inside the top 10 when he got involved in the wreck. He was strong at Vegas too and finished 5th. JGR bead and better tracks are these intermediate racetracks, so no surprise that Edwards have started off the season strongly. It helps that Edwards have an impressive track record here as well. With 5 straight Top 13 finishes and overall 9 Top 10 finishes in his past 12 races at Cali. Overall in 18 career races, Edwards have compiled 8 Top 5 finishes and 14 Top 10 finishes. Hard not to like those type of numbers.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth have been very strong this season, but he have yet to find victory lane for some reason. It may change this weekend though. He was leading this race last year until he had mechanical issues occur on a late pit stops. If a late caution didn't come out then he would have no doubt went to victory lane. Kenseth have found plenty of success at Cali and should be considered a major threat to win this weekend. In his previous two races at Cali with JGR, he had compiled finishes of 7th and 4th. In 23 career starts, he have compiled 10.4 average finish with 3 career wins. The last one coming in 2009. Looking at this season, he have been very strong at times. Especially at the intermediate tracks. Had the car to beat at Atlanta, but miscommunication between driver and crew cost him a potential win. He was also really good at Vegas and arguably had a potential top 3 or top 4 car, but lost control of his car and wrecked. His luck will eventually turn around and it could be this weekend. I personally expect the JGR cars to be strong at Cali!
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney is an awesome talent and should only get better as the season goes on, but man I have been impressed by him so far this season. The kid is gonna win eventually, but I think that will happen later in the year though. He drives for the wood bros, so he basically is an third Penske car. So there was no surprise when he finished 6th at Vegas (Logano and Keselowski finished 1st and 2nd). There no data at Cali to go on, but I believe he will be in the mix for a third straight top 10 finish! Man that would be impressive from this 21 team, but I wouldn't be surprised one bit if it happened.
22-Joey Logano: Logano looked pretty good at start of Phenoix, but then he just faded in latter part of the race. I was expecting him to be more of a threat, but never was that race-winning threat we all come to love (okay some of us). I think he will be under the radar in terms of popularity in fansay racing. I hoping he comes out swinging with a fast car. Remember the Penske cars were really strong not too long ago at Vegas. Especially on the longer runs, that was where they really were their strongest. Logano also was really good at Atlanta, but a pit road penalty slowed up his day. He been pretty good at Cali since joining Penske. He finished 3rd in his debut in the 22 car and led a career-high 40 laps and posted 127.0 driver rating. In 2014, he another strong car, but had issues during the race that forced him to make repairs behind the wall. Last season, he was strong once again and finished 7th. Never was a race-winning threat, but was easily a top 10 driver for the event. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a low-end Top 5 driver to a solid top 10 driver.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott have been the more impressive rookie (in my opinion), but unlikely Blaney he is more inconsistent (so far). Much like Blaney, we have no data to go at Cali with Elliott. I like Elliott a lot this week, I think he will keep running like he have been running. There really no reason to think he won't be least a top 15 driver. In fact, I am pretty sure he will find himself inside the top 10 before the weekend is overall. Obviously that a tall task, but these rookies are really good. So it wouldn't surprise me one bit if that occurred.
27-Paul Menard: Menard have not looked great this season in my opinion. He struggled at Atlanta and was only a top 25 driver, but somehow pulled out an 18th place finish. He struggled at Vegas too, according to my standard with an 15th place finish (not terrible - just lackluster compared to recent history). Then last week at Phoenix, he wrecked out and ran about 20th place during the race. However he does have a great racetrack coming up this week at Cali. This have been one of best tracks on schedule. He have compiled 3 straight Top 10 finishes and 5 straight Top 19 finishes overall since joining RCR in 2012. Obvously he have overperformed in last season's race with an 4th place finish. I am not expecting a repeat of that from Paul. I view him at best as a top 15 driver headed into the weekend. He will have a outside shot at finishing inside the top 10 on Sunday though.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is off have to good start in 2015 and have been a qualifying machine this season. Which have translated into some solid runs for the 41 team. Now he goes to (in my opinion) his best racetrack on schedule. I have felt for a long time this is his best track and always seems to run very well here. He could've won this race last season, if it wasn't for a late caution for Kyle Larson (I believe). He have been the best driver in the series (in my opinion) over the past 3 seasons with 3 Top 5 finishes (only driver to accomplish this). Including back-to-back 3rd place finishes. Like it or not, Busch is easily one of the best fantasy picks this week. His numbers are hard to match since the 2009 season (9 races). Over the past 9 races at Cali, Kurt have compiled 7 Top 9 finishes. Including 6 Top 6 finishes. Hard to not like him this week, I think he will be one of the strongest drivers this weekend once again!
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson was not very good at Phoenix (especially in latter stages of the race), but how about that 4-tire call by Crew Chief Chad Johnston to put the Cali driver in a great position for a solid finish. Now Larson have something going for him (momentum). Can he take advantage though? I don't really know. CGR have looked really off on the intermediate racetracks so far this season. However I thought the 42 team got Larson really good at Vegas (was running top 12 or top 13 before a pit road penalty), so there that for those that have no faith in him. As for Cali data, he have mixed finishes so far in his career. With an impressive 2nd-place run in his rookie season (2014) and 26th place finish last season. To be fair, he acutally ran pretty good in last season event. He wasn't overly impressive, but was ran top 15 for most of the day. Before wrecking in the final laps of the race. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 15 to top 20 driver, but I rather see practice before making predicitions on either of the CGR cars though.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is off to a great start to season so far. He won at Atlnata (probably had about the 2nd or 3rd best car), finished 3rd at Vegas (had the best car at times), and 11th at PIR (started in the rear - had top 5 car though). So obviously he been really good at the intermediate racetracks so far and I don't think that will change at Cali either. He have an impressive track record here and should be a easy top 5 driver headed into the weekend. In 21 career starts, he have compiled 5 wins (series-best), 15 Top 5 finishes (series-best) and 18 Top 10 finishes (Tie with Kenseth for the series-best). Solely looking at the past two seasons, you wouldn't know how good he actually is. He finished 9th in last season's event and finished a very disappointing 24th place in 2014. However he dominated in the 2014 race and had the best car. He led 104 of 209 laps, but a blown tire slowed Johnson day while leading late in the race. Johnson haven't really gotten the finishes over the past 4 seaosns (best finish was 9th), but it doesn't change how good he been here for his career. He's my early pick this win on Sunday!
78-Martin Truex Jr: After strong peformances at Daytona and Atlatna, Truex Jr have fell off a bit and have posted back-to-back finishes outside of the top 10. Still solid finishes, but not enough for me to say he is a must-have on your fantasy team this week. Add-in he have not found a lot of success lately at Cali with only 2 Top 10 finishes (4 total Top 20s) over his past 10 attempts. Obvioulsy it hard to judge Truex with only ran relvent past data is from last season in the 78 car. I personally don't love Truex this week, least not until I see him in practice. I would say he is a top 10 driver headed into the weekend, but at this point I am don't think he anything beyond that though.
88-Dale Jr: Junior had a great race at Phoenix and it was easily his best performance of the season. At times (early in the race), he had the car to beat but I don't think it was meant to be for him to go to victory lane at PIR. He couldn't run Harvick down in late stages of the race and couldn't stay with him on the last restart. He have ran well on the intermediate racetracks though. He was really good at Atlanta and led some laps, while eventually finishing 2nd. He was also pretty good at Vegas. Not a race-winning threat, but had something for the top 5 (ended up 8th place). So all in all, Dale Jr have shown the potential this season to win races. Add-in solid results recently at Cali, with 3 Top 6 finishes over the past 5 races. Along with 5 straight Top 12 finishes overall! He's a top 10 driver with top 5 upside in my opinion headed into the weekend.
Note - I do apologize for being late with this week's post and for the lack of stats. The combined of my busy schedule and laptop being down contributes to these occurrences.
**Stats from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
