Fantasy Nascar Sleepers (Daytona)

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Before I start digging into Fantasy sleepers, I would like to thank everyone who have checked out the content (aka posts) on this site. As of a few weeks ago (June 18th), we have reached the 2 years milestone. I thought that was a really cool milestone to hit, as this blog have unintentionally became part of my life. I am definitely excited for what the future brings, so again big thanks to all the people who make it worth while.

Okay onto Fantasy Sleepers at Daytona! I don't think there a good way to set your fantasy lineup this weekend, other than trusting your gut. There will be wrecked cars and they'll more than likely include some of your fantasy picks. Just face the fact, that you'll most likely exit Daytona will least 1 or 2 poor picks. That just how these restrictor plate races pan out most of the time, and I have fully accepted that. With that being said, I am not a fan of restrictor plate racing. Never understood why so many fans love it. But hey we all cannot agree on everything. As for sleepers this Saturday night, I think there are a wide-range of potential candidate to consider. Some will be more appealing than other, how much risk you want to offer up is to you though. The ''Big one'' will surface regardless how risky or safe of a lineup you choose to make.

Sleepers -

Aric Almirola - Aric Almirola disappointed me with 28th place finish at Talladega, but I think he can rebound nicely at Daytona. People don't realize that Aric is one of the best drivers in the series at consistency finishing on the lead lap at the restrictor plates (Daytona and Talladega) over the past 2 seasons. Over the past 9 restrictor plate races, he have posted 6 finishes of 16th place or better. One of them includes his lone career victory in 2014 in this very event. Of course that was a nutty race that ended rain-shortened, but still a win is a win and he led 14 laps in that event as well. I think Aric is a little better at Daytona than Talladega. His overall numbers recently suggest as well. He have finished 12th and 15th in 2 of his past 3 races at Daytona. He finished 12th back in the 500 and long as he can avoid trouble, he will likely finish somewhere in the low to middle teens once again. I wouldn't expect anything better than 12th place to be honest. More times than not, that seems to be where he ends up as the best-case possible finish.

Casey Mears - Mears have finally fell off most people fantasy radars as a top-tier sleeper at Daytona and I over here looking like the joker with an evil grin on my face. Why? Well because Mears just have had dumb luck recently at the restrictor plates. I mean seriously, this dude cannot catch a break and what makes it so funny is he have only been caught up in the ''big one'' once since the end of 2013 season. Pretty amazing that he haven't finished on the lead lap in his past three restrictor plate races, but there are reasons for that though. Back at Talladega (Spring 2016 in May), he was having a pretty good race. But Waltrip lost control of his car and went spinning and collected Mears. That pretty much ended his day as his car received good amount of damage. Back at the Daytona 500 (in February), he didn't get in any wrecks but he had to make an unscheduled pit stop. That eventually caused him to be put a lap down and there weren't many cautions either for him to catch up. He finished 32nd (-1 lap). Then last October at Talladega, he spun and went through the grass. He eventually went a lap down late in the event and never recovered. With that aside, Mears have mastered 5 Top 11 finishes over his past 6 Daytona starts. I guess my point about Mears is, he is a very quality sleeper and just needs things to go his way. Don't let the bitter taste from earlier this season, get in the way of selecting Mears. If there 10 laps to go and he is still on the lead lap, good chance he will be up toward the front. That's what I am hoping, too!

Cole Whitt - My gut back at Talladega said to trust Cole Whitt (I trusted it) and he eventually finished 18th place on that day. Guess what? It telling me again that Cole will be a solid fantasy option once again and that isn't too crazy when you think about it, either. He have been very consistent of late. In fact, 7 of the past 9 restrictor plate races for him have ended in 25th or better. His is better at Talladega, but he have finishes of 22nd and 25th at the Daytona though. It should be noted that Whitt did miss the show at the Daytona 500. As he had to race his way into the race, but spun in his duel race and missed the cut-off. He will have to race his way into Saturday's night race as well. But realistically the only driver he have to beat is Josh Wise and he have out-qualified him in both restrictor plates this season. So I would feel good about Cole making the show this time around and I would expect an top 25 finish from him. Whitt is one of the drivers who hang out at the back and let the drivers up ahead of him wreck out. It not a bad strategy, especially if there a lot of wrecks on Saturday night. Overall, Cole Whitt fantasy pick may not be a terrible one. Then again with all the wrecking going on, it also increase that he get involved as well. Who knows really, but he is a option if you need him.

Landon Cassill - I usually don't list 4-drivers on my sleeper list, but it Daytona so I figured I would give a bonus pick. I really like Cassill this week and he would be my prefer choice over Whitt, if you are looking at a deep fantasy option but an consistent finisher. Cassill is actually a pretty solid driver overall (in terms of finishes) at Daytona. He been good at Talladega too, but I feel much more comfortable with him at Daytona. In 6 of his 9 career starts at Daytona, Landon have finished between 12th-26th place. If you take out his debut (26th place), he have finished 5 of the past 8 races in 12th-24th place. More recently, he have finished 4 of the past 6 races in 24th place or better. Yes, I know it doesn't sound impressive. But when you can consistency finish well, it makes us (fantasy players) feel a lot better come raceday. To a certain extent, it something we look at to make ourselves believe we are making the right choice. Also drivers who have habit of finishing out races are likely to finish on raceday at the plate tracks. They are far from locks, but least it something. Cassill likely will finish in the 15th-25th place range.

Have a question?

Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

Thanks for reading,

Garry Briggs

 

Fantasy Nascar Early Rankings (Daytona)

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Early Rankings -

1. Denny Hamlin
2. Dale Jr
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Kyle Busch
5. Matt Kenseth
6. Jimmie Johnson
7. Martin Truex Jr
8. Kurt Busch
9. Austin Dillon
10. Joey Logano
11. Ryan Newman
12. Carl Edwards
13. Brad Keselowski
14. Jamie Mac
15. Kasey Kahne
16. Kyle Larson
17. Paul Menard
18. Aric Almirola
19. Chase Elliott
20. Tony Stewart
21. Ryan Blaney
22. Greg Biffle
23. Trevor Bayne
24. AJ Dinger
25. Casey Mears
26. Danica Patrick
27. Clint Bowyer
28. Landon Cassill
29. Brian Scott
30. David Ragan

Twitter - @MattAleza

 

Fantasy Nascar RaceDay Thoughts (Sonoma)

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RaceDay Thoughts -

Garry Briggs (@Garryy12):

-Headed into today's race, I consider Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson as three of the heavy favorites. All three have solid track records at Sonoma and all three have won here before. Many people pointed at the 41 car as the driver to beat

- I think Kyle Larson is going to be a threat in today's race and contend for the win. He is one of the few young drivers that I actually trust here.

-Strategy will be a major factor in deciding the winner and be flawless will likely be the key in my opinion

- A lot of people are on the AJ Dinger bandwagon this weekend, as they should be. But I have a feeling the result will be same as the previous two seasons though

Matt Aleza (@MattAleza):

-Two drivers who stood out to me this weekend have been the 19 of Carl Edwards (the pole sitter) and 78 of Martin Truex Jr. In fact, the JGR cars all have shown speed at Sonoma. I thought they have been strongest as a group

-Dale Jr caught a lot of people attention on Friday in practice and I think he has a great shot at victory lane today

-Kurt Busch been another driver people in the Cup garage have talked about, he was a favorite headed in and that haven't changed one bit

-I think we could be in for a surprise winner today at Sonoma. My gut says that surprise winner could very well be a local California kid named Kyle Larson

- Not a lot of love for the Dinger, which is little suprising to me. Sure he didn't post many fast laps at top of the charts, but I thought his laps times were very solid in practice though. There's a diference from ''feeling good'' and posting one really fast lap. I think AJ have the more feel good to him than most

Yahoo Lineups -

Garry's lineup - 41,13,15,95

Matt's lineup - 41,42,47,95

Sleeper Pick -

Garry's Sleeper - Casey Mears

Matt's Sleeper - Kyle Larson

Winner -

Garry's Winner - Kyle Larson

Matt's Winner - Kurt Busch

Fantasy Nascar Picks (Sonoma)

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It was nice to get a off-week in between races, but it back to business as usually with the series heading all the way back to the West Coast. I love Sonoma, it is a unique racetrack and have a special feel to it. Not only does it takes skill to run well here, it takes nearly a mistake-free race by the pit crews. Often the winner isn't who have the best car, but who has the most luck in the fuel mileage department. Also remember, this is one of the shortest races of the season (at only 219 miles - nearly 200 miles shorter than the typical 400 milers). So teams will be crunching numbers before the green flag even waves. So how do you attack a team with all of these factors? Great question and honestly I don't think there a right answer to that. Personally take a track history strongly into consideration. Really that is the only thing we go on, until practice on Friday. Honestly of the two road courses, I think this is one you want the your fantasy picks to be great road course racers. The skillful driver on this type of track seems to be rewarded more than at the Glenn.

Also don't forget for smaller team's driver like AJ Dinger and Clint Bowyer, etc this will be one of their best chances at victory lane this season! This is my current homestate racetrack, I am excited about this weekend's race. Let's roll and remember to check back later in the week, in case there is any changes in my picks!

Yahoo -

A:

Start - Jimmie Johnson (6)

Bench - Kurt Busch (9)

Reasons - I feel like Kurt and Jimmie will both finish inside the top 5, so I am going with Jimmie because I feel like getting off-sequence against the majority. Almost everyone will have Kurt as their starter, so why not? Especially since they are both almost locks to finish up front. Hoping for Kurt to mess up though.

B:

Start - AJ Dinger (8), Kyle Larson (6)

Bench - Clint Bowyer (8), Kasey Kahne (7)

Reasons - Tough decisions this week and honestly I still don't know if these are the right calls. Oh well, I guess I will let lady luck decide that as any other week. I wanted to bench the 47 of Dinger to get off-sequence, but felt better about doing my off-sequence pick in A though. So I am sticking with the 47 of Dinger, as he will be a threat to lead some laps and finish least inside the top 10. So who do I pair him with? Couple good choices actually! I like Clint Bowyer, but I won't really trust him too much though. Even with his track record as impressive as it is. Kasey loves Sonoma, but same as Bowyer I have hard time trusting him. So I am going  with Kyle Larson! I think Larson could go to victory lane and I don't want to miss it either.

C:

Start - Michael McDowell (9)

Bench - Chase Elliott (5)

Reasons - I didn't get around to making the Ragan/Elliott swap, but wouldn't have mattered anyways though. I was going to use McDowell either way. Elliott will be okay on Saturday, but I am not going  to waste a start here on him though. McDowell will deliever a top 25 finish and I am okay with that. As I don't think anyone will finish overly well in this grouping tier.

Fantasy Live - 78,19,15,47 and 14

Sleeper - Kyle Larson

Winner - Kurt Busch

Twitter - @MattAleza
 

Fantasy Nascar Update (Sonoma)

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We are at my homestate track of Sonoma this weekend for the 16th Sprint Cup Series race of the 2016 season! Jeff Nathans (who usually write up this post) wasn't available this weekend, so I will been chosen to take over his timeslot. Anyhow, there were two practice sessions on Friday afternoon and then qualifying on Saturday. Of the two practice sessions, I put more stock into  the first session than the second because of track conditions to being more similar. Also most teams focused on qualifying in the final session. I personally think Sonoma is a track that requires luck more than anything. I fully expect strategies to come into play and most likely be a heavy factor in who eventually goes to victory lane. Below I have I put together my version of the Fantasy Nascar Update. Instead of breaking them down into grouping (as Jeff does), I have decided to make a straight up top 12 list. Since a lot of people play Yahoo Fantasy Racing, I will list my Grouping Tier rankings at the bottom. Also you can view my Final Rankings (full-list) for Sonoma by clicking here.

Fantasy Nascar Update -

1. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch is my top fantasy pick this weekend for many reasons, but his recent track history is what makes him stands out more than anything. Since winning with Penske in 2011, he have been impressive here. Over the past 5 races, he has 4 Top 5 finishes at this track and probably should have finished top 5 again in 2014 but things didn't quite work out for him. Overall, he haven't finished worse than 12th place since the 2011 season at Sonoma. Not only does he have a great track record, but he been near top of the speed charts on both Friday and Saturday. On Friday, Kurt Busch was very fast and brother Kyle said he was among the fastest in the first practice session. Dale Jr even tweeted a graphic that basically said the exact same thing. In race-trim, I thought he easily among the top 5 drivers. Then on Saturday, he went out and qualified in the 4th position and will roll off from there on Sunday afternoon. I really like what Kurt brings to the table this weekend as a fantasy pick. Not only because of his track record and solid weekend so far, but he also been the most-consistent driver in the series this season. Usually he is a top 10 potential driver, but I think he will be more than that when the checkers waves at Sonoma though.

2. Carl Edwards - Edwards stood out on Friday as one of the drivers to beat, I thought he was very good overall. More than a couple people in the garage mentioned that as well. And nobody is really that surprised that he been fast. Carl went to victory lane for the first time at Sonoma in 2014 with RFR. But that just icing on the cake, as he been quite good on the road courses for a few years prior to that. Over the previous 5 Sonoma races (2011-2015), he have finished 3rd or better in 3 of 5 races. The other two finishes have been 21st and 40th though. He DNFed here last season, but that was because he got wrecked. Another thing Carl have going for him? He have only qualified inside the top 5 twice at Sonoma (2013 and 2014) and both times he finished inside the top 3. He is starting from the pole on Sunday and the JGR Toyotas seems to have a lot of speed this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if Carl went back to victory lane here!

3. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson will roll off from 15th place, but I have no worries about him though. He been very good at Sonoma in the past and was strong in practice on Friday as well. In the first session, I thought he among the best of them and his team really were encouraged by his lap times too. Johnson said he loves Sonoma because how challenging it is, which would explain why he has a Series-high 7 straight Top 10 finishes at Sonoma. More impressive that 6 of 7 have ended in 7th or better. The Driver of the #48 car haven't exactly been super-consistent over the past month or so this season, but I think he will be a major threat on Sunday afternoon. I am not worried one bit about his starting positon, he will easily make his way inside the top 10. Probably before first-round of pit stops have even started. Remember last season at Sonoma? Started 13th and was picking them off left and right and led 45 laps to an 6th place finish. Another thing I like? He have improved his finishing position over his last three starts. 9th in 2013, 7th in 2014 and 6th in 2015.

4. AJ Dinger - Part of me thinks AJ Dinger gonna be tough to beat, then the other part of me thinks I have him ranked too high. And honestly I get the feeling, Dinger will be a heavily debated fantasy pick. Some will trust him from the 2nd starting position and use him, and others will remember the last two Sonoma races. Personally, I wasn't blown away in practice by him. I thought he was pretty good in race-trim but nothing near what we are use to out of him at Sonoma. However, I think he was sandbagging it a little too. So it hard to say how good he really is, but history says he will be a contender at Sonoma. But for whatever it means, the 47 team have been much faster this season than it was last season. So maybe that will translate to better results, just a thought.

5. Martin Truex Jr - Truex have been bad fast all season long, but he haven't had much luck though. I think the 78 have a car capable of finishing inside the top 5, but I think that will depend on if lady luck is willing to work with him. The 78 car was solid in Friday's first session and showed top 5 speed overall. But looking at his track record, outside of his win in 2013 he haven't really done too much at Sonoma. He got wrecked here last season for anyone that cannot remember. Truex is a pretty good road course racer, but most of his good results have came at the other track (Watkin Glenn). Based on practice, I would say roll with him as he should be a contender (like most weekend this season). But I wouldn't be shocked if something went wrong for him though. That how his season have been more often than not.

6. Kevin Harvick - Harvick starting deep in the field (think like 30th place), but his team was pretty happy about his car in racetrim on Friday afternoon. I thought he was one of the better cars overall and solid on the long runs. He was top 5 good or very close to it based on everything I saw from lap times to interviews. Not to mention, Harvick have been really good at Sonoma since joining the 4 car in 2014. He have been easily one of the best cars (if not the best) on the long runs and this weekend doesn't seem to be any difference. I have no doubt, that Harvick will find himself up at the front contending for the win before it is all over. I have the 4 car finishing right around 5th place or so. If he can get good track position before the midway point, then he defiantly could go to victory lane. Don't count out Harvick, just because he is starting further back than we want.

7. Joey Logano - Logano have been really consistent on the road courses over the past few seasons and it probably only matter of time before he wins at Sonoma. Honestly it probably took longer to win at his first road course race (last August - WGI) than it should've. As he have finished 11th or better in 9 of his past 10 races road courses dating back to the 2011 season. I personally don't think the Penske cars are quite as good as the HMS and JGR cars this weekend, but I think Logano will have something for least the top 10. He have posted 4 Top 11 finishes (including 3 Top 10s) over his past 5 races at Sonoma. Solid track record to go along with some momentum with coming off two of his better races this season at Pocono and Michigan. In practice, he was top 10 in my opinion. I think he may flirt with the top 5 in the race with all the strategies, but straight up I am not convinced that he will contend for a top 5

8. Dale Jr - Junior impressed me on Friday and I thought he would've had something for the pole, but only could manage an 13th-place. Regardless, it doesn't take any way that fact that the 88 car had arguably the best car on Friday in both sessions. Kyle said that the 88,42 and 41 had the best cars in the first practice session and that session is the most important in my opinion. Junior also have had good amount of success at Sonoma. He have finished 12th or better in three straight races now and have back-to-back top 7 finishes. If we really dig deeper, he have 6 Top 13 finishes since the 2007 season, which is like a 9-race span. Want to go deeper (not that it really relevant)? 8 Top 13 finishes in his last 13 starts isn't bad either. So not like Dale been terrible here, he been pretty solid actually. The only thing Dale Jr doesn't have going for him? Momentum. He have struggled to finish well lately and that is concerning to me, but I think he has a car capable of least inside the top 10. I wouldn't be surprised at all, if he finished inside the top 5 either.

9. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch have not finished inside the top 30 since winning at Kansas! That is impressive (not a good impressive either) streak of bad finishes and honestly I cannot say he was super competitive in any of those races. He wasn't ever garbage, but I don't think he had anything for the top 5 either when thinking about his performances in each race. Honestly, when he won last season at Sonoma it kinda out of nowhere as he have struggled at this track since winning in 2008. He have some speed this weekend, but I don't think he have enough to go back-to-back. Of course that not factoring in all of the strategies and other important factors. Headed into Sunday's race, I think Busch is a top 10 driver with possible top 5 upside. But he worries with this cold streak he have been on. So realistically I am not expecting anything beyond a top 10 finish, just how I see it though.

10. Kyle Larson - Jeff made a great point earlier this week about Kyle Larson being such a fast learner and applying knowledge to a track. I think it was even truer after watching practice with a lot of the young drivers in our sport struggling with this place. Larson on the other hand have looked very good. Remember this is only his 3rd time being at Sonoma in a Cup car, but he is defiantly one of the drivers to contend with. On Friday, he was one of the drivers people were talking about in the garage. And his lap times on the charts backed that up as well, so he has a fast car this weekend. And nobody really surprised about that either. Larson have been one of the strongest drivers since start of May and I don't think it will be long before he get to victory lane honestly. When you consistently run up front, you will sooner or later win a race. And when he does, I think that when he really going to start knocking off the finishes. If we going to see a first-time winner or a surprise winner, then I would want my money of the 42 car!

11. Kasey Kahne - Kasey will roll off from just inside the top 20 on Sunday afternoon, but I think he will surprise some people with a solid run at Sonoma. Some people don't realize that Kasey is one of the better drivers in the series here. And a lot of that is to do with the equipment he is in, even though he lone win at Sonoma came before joining HMS. Entering the weekend, Kahne have put together 4 straight Top 10 finishes at this track and could make it 5 straight when the checkers waves. In practice, Kahne wasn't too bad overall I guess. He wasn't ever anything special, but Kasey usually doesn't dominate the speed charts. On your average weekend, if Kahne have speed in the top 15 (as he did on Friday), then he should have good shot at a top 10 finish. I think that exactly what will happen. Doubt if he finishes any better than 7th, but I would gladly take that type of finish out him.

12. Tony Stewart - Smoke have been very good the last couple weeks and Sonoma may not be any different. He ran really good over the past two races and have showed some speed this weekend at Sonoma. Some people would say that Smoke is back, but I say it also have a lot to do with the tracks as well. Michigan, Pocono and Sonoma are all considered among his best racetracks! So I cannot say that I am shocked how he ran at Michigan and Pocono. Not shocked that he qualified well for Sonoma either. And if he could finish 12th here last season at Sonoma, then he probably will have something for a top 10 finish this season then.

Yahoo Rankings by Tier

A:

1. Kurt Busch
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Joey Logano
5. Dale Jr
6. Kyle Busch
7. Brad Keselowski
8. Matt Kenseth
9. Denny Hamlin


B:

1. Carl Edwards
2. Martin Truex Jr
3. AJ Dinger
4. Kyle Larson
5. Kasey Kahne
6. Tony Stewart
7. Ryan Newman
8. Jamie Mac
9. Clint Bowyer
10. Paul Menard

C:

1. Chase Elliott
2. Michael McDowell
3. Brian Scott
4. Ryan Blaney

Twitter - @MattAleza
 

Fantasy Nascar Final Rankings (Sonoma)

Welcome to TimersSports

Final Rankings -

1. Kurt Busch
2. Carl Edwards
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. AJ Dinger
5. Martin Truex Jr
6. Kevin Harvick
7. Joey Logano
8. Dale Jr
9. Kyle Busch
10. Kyle Larson
11. Kasey Kahne
12. Tony Stewart
13. Brad Keselowski
14. Ryan Newman
15. Jamie Mac
16. Matt Kenseth
17. Denny Hamlin
18. Clint Bowyer
19. Paul Menard
20. Casey Mears
21. Chase Elliott
22. Danica Patrick
23. Austin Dillon
24. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
25. Greg Biffle
26. Michael McDowell
27. Brian Scott
28. Ryan Blaney
29. Aric Almirola
30. Trevor Bayne

Fantasy Nascar Sleepers (Sonoma)

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 Road courses are quite difficult to make fantasy picks for in my opinion. I think these races are hard to predict sometimes, because all of the strategies being played out. At Sonoma, skill is more of a factor than at Watkin Glenn (WGI). Therefore, the sleeper aspect of the game is enhanced more than the usual race. With that being said, it can be a good thing or a bad thing. Obviously having a variety selection of ''potential'' sleepers is always a blessing. However, I think the problem is we sometimes lose track that these sleepers picks are sleepers for a reason. In simpler terms, there are usually some warning tags that these picks could lead to negative outcomes. A good example would be AJ Dinger over the past couple seasons. He have contended for wins, but the end results have been ugly. So those are a couple things to think about when making your fantasy picks. Okay let stop wasting time and get into today's content!

Sleepers -

AJ Dinger - Dinger is the first driver I think of when we come to Sonoma and Watkin Glenn, because of his history and his background. Dinger is a road course ace and only thing that have stopped him from finishing up front is his equipment. That is probably the only reason, he is categorized as a sleeper in the first place. Dinger just seems to get around these road courses better than anyone else and there isn't much doubt that he will be a strong contender in Sunday's race. But I think big question is will he be there at the end? I cannot really say, but honestly I get the feeling he is due for a solid finish at Sonoma. Listen to his numbers over the past two seasons: 37.0 average finish, 1.5 average starting position, 16.0 average running position and 101.8 driver rating. In basic terms, he been a strong performer at Sonoma but the results have not followed. However he have started on the front row the past two seasons, so there a good chance he will qualify well on Saturday. But will he finish is the big unknown.

Clint Bowyer - Bowyer is a great sleeper option to consider this week, as he been a stud at Sonoma even before his breakthrough victory lane during the 2012 season. I consider Sonoma as Clint's best track and his track record alone makes him a steal in my opinion. In only 10 career starts, Bowyer have finished inside the top 5 in 6 of 10 races. That is not even counting 4 straight Top 10 finishes in the previous 4 races at this place. Overall, Bowyer have finished 10th or better in 8 of his 10 career starts. With only one finish worse than 16th place and that was in 2010. I know some people will say, ''Oh Clint is in terrible equipment, he cannot contend here.'' I call bullshit right there. He finished 3rd here last season and posted an 112.3 driver rating (4th-best) and 8.0 average running position (4th-best) with MWR. And honestly MWR was pretty bad last season, so he really isn't getting much of a downgrade in equipment. Maybe a little, but doubt it will matter a whole lot though. Also remember this is the same race team that had Kurt Busch in 2012 score a top 5 finish. And Bowyer is probably a little better at Sonoma when looking at the numbers. Not saying, he is lock to finish inside the top 5. But I think Clint is in for a solid run at Sonoma. Honestly, if Clint cannot run well here then I don't think he will anywhere.

Casey Mears - Say hello to my secret weapon this weekend at Sonoma! You probably like, ''Hold up, Garry..why the love for Mears this week?'' Great question and one that will be answer. You see, he is somewhat of an gangster on the road courses. Not winning potential, but you get my point. I think Mears is pretty underrated on both Watkin Glenn and Sonoma, and in my opinion is arguably at his best on this type of racetrack. He good on the restrictor plates too, but that is more luck than anything though. Mears was impressive here last season and was top 10 good before he had to make a early trip to the garage. His numbers for that event was pretty good still despite finishing 13 laps down. In last season's race at Sonoma, he started 8th, finished 33rd, posted 18.0 average running position and 68.4 driver rating. Not bad numbers at all. Not the first time he have found success with the #13 team at Sonoma, either. Since the 2012 season, Mears have been pretty solid overall in the #13 car. He have posted 20.5 average finish, 15.3 average start, 18.3 average running position and 75.4 driver rating. Prior to finishing 33rd last season, he had finishes of 13th through 16th place from 2012 to 2014 seasons. Also a interesting note that Mears have qualified 12th and 8th the past two seasons. Overall Mears have been a solid finisher on the road courses. Over his past 8 road courses races (at both Sonoma and Watkin Glenn), he have finished 7 of 8 races inside the top 18. Again only non-top 18 finish was last June when he had to go to the garage. Pretty damn good in my opinion, I have high hopes for him!

Have a question or something?

Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

Fantasy Nascar Early Rankings (Sonoma)

Welcome to TimersSports

Early Rankings -

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Kurt Busch
3. AJ Dinger
4. Kevin Harvick
5. Carl Edwards
6. Martin Truex Jr
7. Joey Logano
8. Kasey Kahne
9. Ryan Newman
10. Kyle Busch
11. Kyle Larson
12. Tony Stewart
13. Brad Keselowski
14. Dale Jr
15. Jamie Mac
16. Matt Kenseth
17. Paul Menard
18. Denny Hamlin
19. Austin Dillon
20. Chase Elliott
21. Greg Biffle
22. Ryan Blaney
23. Casey Mears
24. Clint Bowyer
25. Danica Patrick
26. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
27. Brian Scott
28. Trevor Bayne
29. Chris Buescher
30. David Ragan
 

Fantasy Nascar Preview (Sonoma)

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Fantasy Preview -

1-JMac: Jamie Mac probably had one of  his best races of the season at Michigan, but that not really saying much since he haven't really performed that well this season from a performance point of  view. However I think Sonoma will be one of his best chances to be a top 10 to top 15 threat this season, and a legit threat at that. JMac is a underrated road course racer and have been for a long time in my opinion. Even in Gannasi's down years (most recently 2011 and 2012 seasons), he was still competitive inside the top 15 or so here. However he also have had a lot of bad luck here over the years as well. I think Sonoma rewards skill more than speed, in that area is where I believe JMac will benefit. Over the past two seasons here, he have compiled 7.5 average finish with 11.0 average running positon and 103.5 driver rating. Dating back to the 2009 season at Sonoma, JMac have finished 15th or better in 5 of 7 races. Including finishes of 11th and 4th the past two season. He probably should've made that 6 of 7, but in 2013 he had to make an unscheduled pit stop while running inside the top 5 and never really recovered. I remember that race very clearly because I started him in Yahoo Fantasy Racing over eventual race winner Martin Truex Jr. JMac probably won't run up front at Sonoma, but I think he will deliver a quality finish in the low to middle teens though.

2-Brad Keselowski: I think a lot of people automatically think since Keselowski is so strong at The Glenn, the results should translate. Yes, for some drivers results from track to the another translate. However, not for all drivers. Sonoma and WGI are two different racetracks and are raced two different ways. Sonoma rewards pure skill and hitting your marks, Keselowski just haven't shown that ability yet here. As this is his worst racetrack when looking at the numbers. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 20.5 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 64.3 driver rating. Not every race is bad here for Keselowski, but the finishes just haven't been there for the driver of the No.2 car. He finished 10th and 12th in 2011 and 2012 seasons, but his other 4 finishes at this track? 19th or worse. Including 3 straight finishes of 21st, 22nd and 19th. Those type of numbers just aren't gonna cut it, especially at a track that we only visit once per season.

3-Austin Dillon: I personally don't think Austin Dillon is a talented road course racer, he never really have display anything special here at Sonoma. However he haven't gotten any poor finishes here either. And like most young drivers, he will struggle to find a breakthrough finish at the road courses. But I think it only matter of time before he scores that first top 15 and top 10 finish. It will likely be coming sooner than later though. Dillon have made major gains this season compared to his first two season in Nascar and I expect that we will see improvements in his road course game, as well. Over his two starts at Sonoma, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 22.5 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. So far in two career starts, he have finished 17th twice. Despite starting 36th and 26th in those starts. So that comes out to an 31.5 average starting position, while netting nearly 15 positons in the position differential category. I think Dillon is a top 20 driver headed in with top 15 upside at Sonoma. His performance in the past isn't a great indication of what to expect, so I would wait until practice before really making a decision on him. I'll have him on my fantasy radar though.

4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is a stud on the road course, even if he doesn't get the results all the time. Facts remains, Harvick have been one of the best drivers since joining SHR on the road courses. The results just don't show quite how good though. He been solid here at Sonoma, but his finish in 2014 is misleading though. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 105.7 driver rating. He finished 20th in the 2014 event here, but he was very strong in that race. He led 23 laps and had the best car overall in my opinion. He got caught up in the Clint Bowyer and JMac wreck, after that he couldn't quite make it back to the lead. Last season, he was very strong and finished 4th. He didn't have quite as good of a car though. Overall since the 2010 season (6 races), Harvick have 4 Top 10 finishes. Including 2 of the past 3 season. Harvick is a top 5 driver headed into Sonoma and will likely contend for the win.

5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne have started to show something over the past 5 or 6 Sprint Cup Series races this season and have performed pretty well overall at Sonoma. Kahne is a underrated road course racer and isn't typically thought of at either WGI or Sonoma. But he should be, as he have gotten pretty good results at both tracks. Also he is good equipment, so that doesn't hurt too much either. Over the past 2 seasons at Sonoma, he have compiled 7.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 97.6 driver rating. Kahne started out his career with 4 finishes outside of the top 30 in his first 5 races (from 2004 to 2008 - 5 races). Over his past 7 races (from 2009 to 2015), he have posted 5 Top 10 finishes, including 3 straight Top 8 finishes overall. In 4 starts with HMS at Sonoma, he have finished 14th or better in every single start. Looking at the numbers, this is arguably his best racetrack. Heading into practice, I view Kahne as a top 15 driver with upside to sneak away with an top 10 finish. Qualifying haven't been a strong point here for him though. So don't be shocked, if he qualified poorly. The important thing to remember is, he will be there at the end!

11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin have been terrible at both the road courses and honestly this always haven't been the case for him. He started his career out well at both tracks, but his numbers have dropped off majorly after his first 3 or 4 seasons for some reason. Over the past 2 races here, he have compiled 22.0 average finish with 20.5 average running position and 64.4 driver rating. After posting 3 Top 12 finishes in his first 4 starts, including an career-best 5th place in 2009. His stats have been terrible, since 2010 season and beyond. In that span (6 races), he have finished 18th or worse in every single start. Including 5 of those 6 races ending outside of the top 22. He is showing improvements with finishes of 23rd (2013) and 18th (2015 - last year), but he is still a ways off from returning to form at Sonoma in my opinion. He is probably a low to middle teen driver headed into Sonoma, and I say low to middle teen because of his quality equipment helps him a lot.

14-Tony Stewart: I usually don't list Tony Stewart in my Fantasy Previews, but since we are at an road course I will put on it. Also he is running competitively and typically I list the primary Top 15 or so contenders. Smoke is coming off back-to-back races, where he ran top 10 (Pocono and Michigan). So if he can run well at those venues, why cannot do well at a place like Sonoma? I have high hopes for him at both of the road courses. Higher hopes at The Glenn, but I think he will be mixing up at the front this weekend though. Over the past two races here, he have compiled 15.5 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 78.5 driver rating. He sucked in 2014 and that is a nice way of putting it. He wasn't competitive at all and was about an 20th place driver. Only time he was in the spotlight when he got a pit road penalty, which take away any chance of a decent finish. He finished 19th that day, which was better than his average running position of 20th place. Headed into Sonoma, I view Smoke as a low to middle teen driver probably with obvious upside.

18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy won his first race at Sonoma in 2008, but it took him seven more years to find victory lane in last year's race. From 2009 to 2014 (6 races), he only posted 2 top 20 finishes with an best finish of 11th place in 2011. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 16.0 average running positon and 89.3 driver rating. I don't think Sonoma is Rowdy's best track, but I don't think it is his worst either though. With that said, he have had some rotten luck lately and that alone worries me. Since winning at Kansas, he have not finished better than 30th place. In fact, he haven't finished on the lead lap for that matter. At first, I thought it might have been some testing or trying things out by the 18 crew. But honestly I don't think so anymore, just by his reaction after the races. Just dumb luck in my opinion. From a fantasy perspective, I don't want to touch Kyle at Sonoma. The primary reason is because when Rowdy is hot he is red hot, and when he is cold, he is ice cold. This isn't a uncommon thing to see out of Kyle Busch, we have seen it in the past. Better for him to get his bad finishes out of the way earlier in the season though.

19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is having a pretty good season so far and just keep on knocking off top 10 finishes. After 15 races this season, he have collected 10 Top 10 finishes on the year. Including back-to-back Top 10 finishes (Pocono and Michigan) now. Among the JGR cars, Edwards have been the most consistent driver and will look to keep the momentum going. I also consider him a very underrated road course racer, as he never get the respect he deserves. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 20.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 95.2 driver rating. He got wrecked in last season's event by David Ragan. In 2014, he went to victory lane after holding off a hard-charging Jeff Gordon. That remains his lone road course's win, but there been signs for more than a couple years though. In 4 of his previous 6 races (before winning in 2014), Edwards finished 9th or better. Including two top 3 finishes. In fact, he finished 3rd in the 2013 race. So it was only matter of time before Edwards found himself in victory lane. I think very well could do it again this season, as well. Headed into Sonoma, I view him as a top 10 driver with clear top 5 upside.

20-Matt Kenseth: Another JGR driver who have struggled on the road courses would be Matt Kenseth. Kenseth has been terrible at Sonoma throughout his career and only have posted 1 top 10 finish in 16 starts and that top 10 was in 2008. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 31.5 average finish with 23.0 average running position and 70.4 driver rating. His average finish is misleading because of an 42nd place finish in 2014. He finished 21st in last season's race here. His numbers overall recently haven't been terrible, but they haven't been great either though. Over the past 5 races at Sonoma (since 2011), he have posted 4 finishes from the 13th-21st place range. Again for his top tier equipment, he should be much better than that. However Matt just don't seem to perform well on the road courses for some reason. Headed into Sonoma, the best outcome for Matt would be an top 10 finish, but that is probably unlikely. Realistically, a middle-teen finish is the finish I am expecting out him honestly.

21-Ryan Blaney: I don't really trust Blaney too much on the road courses, a lot of that is due to his inexperience at the lower levels and the Wood bro's lack of experience in recent years here. Also Blaney get backed by Penske and they have struggled to find speed here. When you factor everything in, you get a risky fantasy option overall. I think this will be a weekend to avoid Blaney, I would feel better about him, if he had more experience at the Cup level though. But honestly I am usually nerve about any driver with no experience at Sonoma, so don't think I have no faith in Ryan. He will figure it out with some practice, but I don't know how good he will be in the race though.

22-Joey Logano: I feel like Logano is a very underrated road course racer, even after strong runs in recent years at both WGI and Sonoma. He is also coming off an win at Michigan, before the break. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 10.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position with 91.4 driver rating. Over his past 5 races at Sonoma (since 2011), he have finished 16th or better in all 5 starts. Not to mention, he have compiled 4 Top 11 finishes in that 5-race span. Including 3 Top 10 finishes, with his an career-best of 5th place last season (2015). In 3 starts with Penske at Sonoma, he have posted finishes of 11th,16th and 5th so far. Not only is Logano is a underrated road course racer, but I think he is still under the radar because of his lackluster season so far. Guess what? I think he is starting to heat up and about to go on a hot streak as I mentioned earlier in the season he would at some point.

24-Chase Elliott: As I mentioned with Blaney, young drivers make me nervous on the road courses. Especially ones who lack experience at the cup level. With that being said, most track Elliott have gone this season he never raced at in Cup. Yet, he has 11 Top 10 finishes on the year and is on a 6-race Top 10 streak currently. Momentum wise, I love what Elliott brings to the table. But of the two road courses, I think Sonoma is more technical track than WGI. Elliott may have trouble at Sonoma, because how he attacks the track. Making a daring move like he has so many times this season, could be what hurts him the most. However that just a guess, he could go out and finish inside the top 10 again. Honestly I rather wait until after practice, before making a call on him though.

31-Ryan Newman: Newman is coming off one of his best races of the season at Michigan, where he contended for a top 10 finish for much of the day. Until the final restart, when he couldn't quite get going and finished 11th place. He now heads to a decent track in Sonoma. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 10.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 90.9 driver rating. He have posted 7 Top 18 finishes over his past 8 races at Sonoma. Including 3 straight Top 15 finishes over his past 3 races at Sonoma. With finishes of 9th and 11th place with RCR. He always have been pretty good at Sonoma though. He have posted 8 Top 15 finishes in 14 career races with 12.2 average finish. Newman won't be the first driver that you think of on the road courses, but he will be good for a solid top 15 finish. So basically, he will be good for his usual fantasy production.

41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch even in down years have performed quite well at Sonoma and I would say this is one of his three best racetracks on the schedule. Kurt is a stud here and will be a factor on raceday. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 7.0 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 116.4 driver rating. Kurt started out his career at Sonoma pretty well with 3 Top 5 finishes in his from 6 starts. Then from 2007 to 2010, he went 4 straight races without a finish better than 15th place. But in 2011, he turned the corner again and have been one of the best drivers in the series. In the 2011 event here, he started 11th place and went onto victory lane that day. In that event, he led an impressive 76 of 110 laps in dominating fashion. He have followed that up with 4 straight top 12 finishes. Overall since 2011, he have posted 4 Top 4 finishes in 5 races. Not only have Kurt been a solid track record here, but he been more consistent than any other driver in the series this season. Thats a good combo to have as a fantasy pick at Sonoma in my opinion!

42-Kyle Larson: I believe Kyle Larson is under the radar for Sonoma and I think that could be a mistake honestly. One of the first things you learn about Larson is, he is a quick learner and can grasp/apply knowledge quicker than most drivers. That exactly what he did in his rookie year at both road courses. He qualified up front and ran top 10 at Sonoma, until he lost his power steering. He followed that up by finishing inside the top 5 at WGI. Last season he had quality performances at both venues. But I think he is a little better at WGI than Sonoma. With that said, he did finish 15th last season here which isn't bad at all. Over his first 2 races at Sonoma, he have compiled 21.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 86.3 driver rating. I think people will pay more attention to his average finish than his ''actual performance'' numbers. An 21.5 average finish sucks, but ARP and Driver rating are far more important in my opinion. It pretty clear that Larson have been pretty good at Sonoma so far in his young career. Add in 4 straight Top 13 finishes since Dover and you get some awesome potential.

47-AJ Dinger: I don't think it matter how he finishes lately at Sonoma or WGI, people in general think of Dinger as the Series' road course ace. Just because how impressive he is with his skillset. I don't disagree with that either, as he is very talented on the road courses. I personally think his equipment is what holding him back from being great though. Over the past 2 seasons, he have had a mechanical issues that have cost him top 10 finishes (probably top 5 finishes as well) at both Sonoma and WGI. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 37.0 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 101.8 driver rating. He also holds an 1.5 average starting position for those that are wondering. In 7 career races at Sonoma, he have finished 13th or better in 4 of those races. The other finishes have resulted in 34th and 37th (twice). When AJ can have a issue-free race, then he is a lock for a top 15 finish and probably a top 10 finish too. There is obvious high-upside with Dinger at Sonoma, but there also some great risk you are taking. Personally I think potential outweigh risk every time, but I totally get anyone who plans to play the off-sequence game and avoid him.

48-Jimmie Johnson: I think Johnson get more respect at the road courses than he was before, but I still believe majority still view him as a 1.5 mile guy. Therefore, I still feel like he is vastly underrated on the road courses in my opinion. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 6.5 average finish with 6.0 average running position and 117.7 drive rating. He had the car to beat here last season at Sonoma, but he ended up on the wrong side of the pit strategy late in the event. Otherwise he would have won at Sonoma and honestly I don't think it would've been very close. Soon as Johnson decided not to pit, he pretty much have lost the race at that point in my opinion. Overall he have knocked off 6 straight Top 10 finishes, dating back to the 2009 season. Including 5 Top 7 finishes in that 6-race span. I think Johnson watching Gordon for a decade and a half really have helped him out in his development as a road course driver. And that have shown in his finishes recently, as he didn't really start hitting his stride until like his 8th career start at Sonoma. Headed into Sonoma, I view him as one of the favorites.

78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex is having a up and down season outside of Charlotte, okay he not having a bad season. But the inconsistent results/ inability to finish out races are concerning to me. I am also concerned that the 78 team will go off the deep-end in the summer months, as they did last season. He is a very good road course driver though. He scored his first win in 2013 here at Sonoma, but honestly when looking at it, his win came out of nowhere really. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 28.5 average finish with 26.5 average running position and 70.3 driver rating. He wrecked out of last season's event and finished 15th in 2014. But honestly he have only posted 2 Top 10 finishes and 5 Top 20 finishes in 10 career races at Sonoma. In fact outside of those 2 Top 10 finishes, he have finished 15th or worse in his other 8 starts. Performance wise, his best 4 races were the 4 races with MWR. Otherwise, he haven't posted a driver rating in a race beyond 82.4. Going on numbers, he is much better at WGI.

88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is in a slump right now and he now turns to Sonoma (that ''use to be'' one of his worst track), where he looks to get his season back on track. He leads the series in average finish position over the past 2 seasons at Sonoma. Over the past 2 seasons at Sonoma, he have compiled 5.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 106.4 driver rating. In fact, he have finished 11th or better at both Sonoma and WGI over the past 2 seasons. Pretty good for a guy that use to absolutely hate road courses. Helped that he had opportunities to work with Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon since 2008. Two guys who know couple things about running up front at on the road courses. Not to mention, HMS equipment typical runs near the front on this type of track as well. Overall at Sonoma, Dale Jr actually been pretty good here for awhile. No really, he have finished 6 of the past 9 races at Sonoma inside the top 12. Including 3 straight finishes of 12th or better. With back-to-back top 7 finishes in the past 2 seasons. Headed into Sonoma, I view Dale Jr as a borderline top 10 driver.

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacinCheatSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18  

Fantasy Nascar Post-Practice Sleepers (Michigan)

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Sleepers -

Austin Dillon - Austin Dillon is the first sleeper option that comes to mind after watching practice and qualifying this weekend. The #3 car have been very quick in all three practice sessions and will start from the 8th position. I think a lot of people think Dillon speed was a fluke and won't back it up in the race. However I respectfully disagree with that. I think he will very much be a contender at Michigan. He loves this place and when the green flag waves, I think it realistic that the 3 car contain his top 10 position. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if he moved up a few spots. Typically when Dillon shows a lot of speed in practice, he usually follows it up with least a top 10 performance. Remember last August at Michigan? Very strong race, arguably had best race of his cup career. What track are we are again? I think I have made my case for Dillon!

Ty Dillon - Let's stick with the Dillon theme and talk about younger brother Ty. He will drive the #95 car, which is basically an 4th RCR car (least it get prepared as one when Ty drives it). I was reading earlier this morning that RCR uses cars that Paul Menard and Ryan Newman have used in the past. This weekend, Ty is using an car that finished 10th last season at Texas. Obviously with some adjustments made to it, to fit Ty's driving style and stuff. Still good to hear that RCR is giving him backing, with that said Dillon could surprise some people. He will start from 21st and probably run in the low to mid 20s most of the day. He is a good young driver, who will pace himself and find ways to move up the leaderboard. So I wouldn't be totally shocked by an top 20 finish. Dillon won't do it with pure speed, but instead do it by being consistent. He just out there logging laps and that alone should make him a good value at Michigan.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Last spot was Larson or Stenhouse Jr, I decided to go with Stenhouse Jr because Larson is not much of a sleeper at this point of the season. He is pretty stabilized right now, but Stenhouse on the other hand just get disrespected week after week. Stenhouse is having a great season and all he does is strong top 15 finish after top 15 finish, yet he getting no love at all. I don't really understand that, especially in leagues that focus in on finishing position. I mean, I would take a sure thing all day long, if it meant results. Sure he isn't flashy, but he is good enough to be a top 15 threat. This weekend, the #17 Ford have been fairly low on the speed charts. However, he seems to have pretty good speed in that car when looking deeper into the lap times. I wouldn't call his car impressive, but I think he will have something for least the top 15 when the green flag waves. According to his Team's official twitter account, he posted the 8th-best green flag speed average with about 30 minutes left. He ended the session with the 15th-fastest average. If those hold true, then I would say he is a pretty good value.

Have a question?

Email - briggs_garry48@yahoo.com

Twitter - @Garryy12

Fantasy Nascar RaceDay Thoughts (Michigan)

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RaceDay Thoughts -

Jeff Nathans (@JeffNathans18):

-I expect a crazy race today. The racing will be good, but I am not sure if we see many cars finish. In final practice, Kevin Harvick's CC said there were a couple big moments. That just practice, folks! Put all 40 of these machines on the track at the same time and see what you get

-I think the usual suspects who have dominated the intermediate tracks will be up front most of the day. 48,4,78,22,19 are the first ones that come to mind, they all been pretty good so far this weekend, too

-I think downforce package will create a lot of unknowns heading into today's race. I don' think anyone truly knows how these cars will handle in the race. A lot of drivers have said that this weekend, I think still holds true

-Martin Truex Jr may have the car beat and the only thing that may stop him is bad luck. The 78 car was very fast in both session on Saturday. He swept the top 5 here last season, as well.

Garry Briggs (@Garryy12):

- I still look at the top 12 starters and half of them have only ran 4 years of Cup full-time or less. With some major hitters outside of the top 15. How could this not end well? Inexperience drivers at the front, veterans trying to get the front. That is gonna be something to watch in the early going

-I really like Austin Dillon today as a fantasy sleeper. That 3 car could make some noise, if he keeps it clean. Dillon loves fast tracks and Michigan fits that mole. He been good since Friday afternoon

-Kyle Larson is another young driver I really like today. I personally think Larson will hit the wall or finish near the top 5. He always a risk, but the reward usually even greater.

-Ricky Stenhouse Jr is someone who I will be watching today for sure. He didn't display the speed I was expecting, but he always seems to be top 15 good. Look at last week! He wasn't anywhere to be found until the last 30 laps, battling inside the top 15. 17 team just finds way to get their driver where they need him at the end.

Matt Aleza (@MattAleza):

-Chase Elliott have been the talk of the 2016 season among the rookies, but I think today is Ryan Blaney's time. He was very good at Kansas and seems to be even better this weekend. Another top 5 coming? Maybe

-Two 3rd-year drivers in Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson have shined among cup stars on Saturday. They both been in the top 10 on the speed charts all weekend and one of them could find themselves in victory lane. Unlikely, but we have seen crazier things happen before

-Carl Edwards is someone who haven't been talked a lot about in the fantasy nascar community, least not much as I was expecting. I think he going to be tough to beat today, in fact I wouldn't be shocked if he led some laps and finished in the top 5

-Paul Menard have been a major disappointment this season and it contines at his best racetrack in Michigan. I guess him underperforming at Vegas and ACS, should have been a clue for us fantasy nascar players

Yahoo Lineups -

Jeff's Lineup - 4,78,42,24

Garry's Lineup - 22,17,3,95

Matt's Lineup - 22,42,3,21

Sleepers -

Jeff's Pick - Austin Dillon

Garry's Pick - Kyle Larson

Matt's Pick - Austin Dillon

Winner -

Jeff's Pick - Martin Truex Jr

Garry's Pick - Carl Edwards

Matt's Pick - Martin Truex Jr

 

Fantasy Nascar Picks (Michigan)

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After one of the best Pocono races we have seen in quite awhile, we turn out attention directly to Michigan. This track was repaved in 2012 and have seen insane speed here recently. Michigan is big and fast, and typically we see some fuel strategy come into play. That always been the case here, I think this is one of the most brutal places to run out of fuel at. Especially if you are in middle of a lap, no way are you going to make it to pit road. Not only will fuel strategy come into play, but track position will be key. We don't see a lot of tire off here, so gambling to take track position could be a common theme. Kinda why I compare it to Kansas, because the similarities it bring.  We will see an new race package being employed this weekend at Michigan, it was used at the All-star race. So looking back at that race should be a good idea. However that was such a whacky race, I personally don't think it hold too much weight. Also remember the All-star is only a sprint event (not full), so the data isn't as valid. I am personally looking at races on the intermediate tracks this season and how drivers have faired most recently in general.

**Check back often, as this page is update when needed

Yahoo -

A:

Start - Joey Logano (7)

Bench - Kevin Harvick (6)

Reasons - Tough decisions this heading into Friday's practice. Logano or Harvick? I thought they were pretty equal at Friday's morning Yahoo deadline. However after qualifying, it was pretty easy to use the Pole Sitter Joey Logano, as Harvick starting deep in the field. Logano kept that speed in Saturday's practice sessions, as well. Harvick was little better on speed in my opinion though.

B:

Start - Austin Dillon (5), Kyle Larson (6)

Bench - Ricky Stenhouse Jr (7) and Kasey Kahne (8)

Reasons - This was one of my more easier decisions in B-list this season, as Larson and Dillon were both near top of the charts since unloading. Stenhouse and Kahne will probably contend for teen-finishes, but don't have the upside that Dillon and Larson does. I usually would go with the more consistent choice, but I just think the upside is too good with Larson and Dillon. Would have loved to get an start with Stenhouse, but I think I would regret it too much in the end.

C:

Start - Ryan Blaney (5)

Bench - Ty Dillon (8)

Reasons -  My plan was to use Ty Dillon, but Blaney looks too good to pass up and I think has one of his better runs of the season. We will get some more chances with Dillon later in the season, so I am too worried about passing up to his opportunity. Also I am going for points right now, I will worry about filling in the holes in the upcoming races. With tracks such as Sonoma, Daytona, New Hampshire, Bristol, WGI to name a few still to come in the summer months. We will be fine!

Fantasy Live - 78,24,21,19 and 34

Sleeper - Austin Dillon

Winner - Martin Truex Jr

Twitter - @MattAleza



 

Fantasy Nascar Final Rankings (Michigan)

Welcome to TimersSports

Final Rankings -

1. Joey Logano
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Martin Truex Jr
4. Jimmie Johnson
5. Carl Edwards
6. Kevin Harvick
7. Dale Jr
8. Matt Kenseth
9. Kyle Busch
10. Kyle Larson
11. Austin Dillon
12. Ryan Newman
13. Denny Hamlin
14. Chase Elliott
15. Ryan Blaney
16. Jamie Mac
17. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
18. Kasey Kahne
19. Greg Biffle
20. Paul Menard
21. Aric Almirola
22. AJ Dinger
23. Tony Stewart
24. Trevor Bayne
25. Danica Patrick
26. Ty Dillon
27. Chris Buescher
28. Brian Scott
29. Clint Bowyer
30. David Ragan

Twitter - @MattAleza
 

Fantasy Nascar Update (Michigan)

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We are using a new downforce package this weekend at Michigan and it sure will create an ''interesting'' race on Sunday. Not only do these teams have to try to figure out this new package, but they will have to figure out how to adjust their cars with different temps. It was in the high-70s at start of the 2nd practice on Saturday and it was near 90 degrees at start of final practice. During the race? Low-70s degrees temps. So just because you were good in practice, doesn't mean you will be good in the race. Doesn't mean you won't either though. Personally I think we will see a crazy race with a lot of drama. I wouldn't be shocked if we see a first-time winner honestly. Plenty of choices like Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson and Austin Dillon to name a few.

Alright let's get rolling!

**My Overall Rankings are based on practice, qualifying, track history, type of track success on current season data, momentum, and personal thoughts and opinions

Fantasy Update -

1. Joey Logano - Logano doesn't have the most raw speed this weekend, but I think he has a very good racecar. I thought he was better in the first practice session on Saturday than the second session, I put more stock into the first session though. Because of the cooler track temps. In the first session, he said his car was pretty good overall. His lap times were right there with some of the fastest cars. He didn't post any long runs though, so it hard to say what has under the hood. But he did qualify on the pole, so he cannot be too slow, right? Also Joey have been strong all season on this type of racetrack, so it shouldn't be surprise when he finishes near the front. Not to mention, he have not finished worse than 9th at Michigan since joining the 22 team.

My Overall Ranking: 1st

2. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson have been very fast, since unloading on Friday. He showed speed in every practice session and will roll off from inside the top 10. On Saturday, I thought he had one of the quicker cars overall. He was consistently posting fast laps in both sessions. He may not have posted the quickest lap every lap, but no doubt he among the top 5 in speed overall. The 48 have been fast all season long and I expect him to be very much of a contender when the green waves on Sunday afternoon. I also feel like Johnson is one of the drivers who likes this package. Jimmie is a wheelman, he loves hanging onto that wheel for dear life. So really, it shouldn't be that much of a shock that the 48 car have been fast all weekend. I think the 48 car will be one of the drivers who, you will need to beat in order to win.

My Overall Ranking: 2nd

3. Kevin Harvick - Harvick starts very deep in the field, but he has a very strong racecar. He looked among the best, if not the best on Saturday. He posted a lot of laps in the opening practice on Saturday morning. In fact, he posted a very long run in middle of that session. His lap times looked really strong, too. The No.4 car will find his way to the front and he will be up there in the top 5 before too long. I believe the 4 car has one of the cars to beat, but his starting position kinda bump him down the list for me though. Good news? He should be a great fantasy option in leagues that reward position differential. If fact, he is probably a must-have in those formats. In standard leagues that only reward points on finish position, I would say he still a great option. When the checkers wave, I think he finishes somewhere up inside the top 5. Team liked his long run speed!

My Overall Ranking: 3rd

4. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski like teammate Logano has a pretty fast car, I would go far as Keselowski has even better car than Logano. But he starts deeper in the field than many of us expected though. Keselowski and the 2 team was disappointed after qualifying 15th. They were very good in Friday's practice and came back on Saturday still being fast. He was very good in both sessions and was among the fastest cars. Keselowski lap times were very good and was right there among the top 5 in both sessions. I think the Penske cars have made a lot of gains lately and it will only be matter of time before we see either of the 2 or 22 win. Don't be shocked if that race is this weekend at Michigan. This is a very special racetrack to Penske and Brad Keselowski!

My Overall Ranking: 4th

5. Kyle Busch - This last spot was down to Kyle Busch or Matt Kenseth, I went with Kyle because I think has a better racecar than Matt Kenseth does. Also he starts higher up, but Busch is struggling to find any luck lately. Ever since his win at Kansas, the 18 team have not finished inside the top 20. Will their luck turn around on Sunday? Hopefully. 18 car have some good speed in it, but I wouldn't call it a dominant racecar (least not what we saw in practice). However, Kyle was happy with his car in the first session. Also for what it worth, Kyle was one of very few who posted an 10-lap average in Friday's session. That is important because track temps will be most similar to Friday's track conditions. With that said, hard to say how he stack up to the competition since most teams focused on qualifying trim. I think Kyle will have a good shot at the top 5, but more than likely contend for least a top 10 finish.

My Overall Ranking: 6th

B:

1. Carl Edwards - Edwards was very fast in the opening practice on Saturday morning. I would go far as saying he had the car to beat. His lap times were the best on the track at times and other times he was just as good as the top competition. He loves this package a lot and he have been wanting it for years. He sounded thrilled on Friday and that attitude haven't changed. He posted the fastest in that opening practice and will roll from the 11th-starting position. I think he will be one of the drivers to beat when it comes down to it. He always been good at Michigan and I think that will continue this weekend. Among the JGR cars, he stood out as the best. He posted the 4th-best Ten lap average in the final practice on Saturday and seems pretty pleased overall with his car. He also has the best average finish here from a career point of view, not to mention an impressive 16 Top 10 finishes in his 23 races. Pretty good chance he finishes least in the top 10. Probably have something for the top 5, too.

My Overall Ranking: 5th

2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex had a very fast car in both sessions. He was the fastest on the Ten-lap average in the final practice session. He was 4th on the Ten-lap average charts in the morning session. Also he was among the top 6 in regards to the fastest lap. Also Truex been very good this season on the intermediate tracks. The one track that I look at closely is Kansas. I view Kansas as a smaller Kansas (also the lap times don't fall off too much), and he was dominated in that race. So no surprise that he is good this weekend. For those wondering, he finished 3rd in both races last season. My only real concern for him? Bad luck. It seems like the 78 team (outside of Charlotte) is snake bitten this season, any time they are in a good position to have a great finish. Otherwise, I don't see how the 78 car finishes outside of the top 5.

My Overall Ranking: 7th

3. Austin Dillon - Dillon said on Friday that he loves Big racetracks like Michigan, he also been on the record of saying (a couple times too) this is his favorite racetrack. He been very fast this weekend and have showed he has least top 10 speed since unloading on Friday. He qualified 8th and I think this will be one of his best race of the year. Last August, he was top 5 strong and finished 4th. So I guess I cannot be too shocked with how good he looked. The 3 car is hooked up and he will have a chance to least finish inside the top 12. I think what great about Dillon is, he was fast in the cooler temps and the warmer temps. Add-in, he been solid on the intermediate tracks, he is one of on my favorite sleepers options at Michigan!

My Overall Ranking: 11th

4. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson have been fast in everything, we have seen this weekend at Michigan. He haven't been the fastest car, but he been up there among the top 10 consistently. I think Larson has a lot going for him this weekend overall. Kyle loves this package, and he is one of the drivers who can handle these loose racecars. Also believe we will see the grooves widen out and expect the 42 car to be up top. My concerns remains, weather he can keep it off the wall? I think that always a concern for him, but more so with this package as these cars are harder to control. Larson loves this style of racing, but he also will be more prong to hitting the wall than usual in my opinion.

My Overall Ranking: 12th

5. Ryan Newman - This final spot in this tier came down to Ryan Newman or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Stenhouse has speed in that #17 car, even though he haven't showed it on the speed charts. He will be top 15 good when the checkers waves. But I feel like Newman have a better shot at finishing inside the top 10. When factoring everything in, I would say he is a top 12 driver headed into Sunday's race. Newman have been consistent all season and I think that will be the case once again at Michigan. He won't get the impressive finish, but he will be the reliable fantasy option you want in your lineup though. In practice, I would say he was a low-teen driver overall. Kinda what he been all season long, too.

My Overall Ranking: 13th

C:

1. Chase Elliott - Elliott posted the fastest lap in Friday's lone practice session and then followed that up with the 10th-fastest lap. Elliott regressed on the speed charts on Saturday, but the 24 team said they are happy with what they got this weekend. Anytime that 24 team says they are good, they are usually pretty good. Elliott may not be a force to start the race, but as the race goes on expect him to be a heavy contender for at least a top 10 finish.

My Overall Ranking: 15th

2. Ryan Blaney - I believed all week that Blaney would have one of his best races this season (think back to the Kansas race), and he have not been a letdown yet. He unloaded fast and he been near the top of the board in everything we have done this weekend. He will roll off from the 5th starting position and don't expect him to drop back too far below that mark. I think he will be able to keep the No.21 car up towards the front all day and finish somewhere inside the top 10. I really like him this weekend at Michigan, this is a great track for Ford.

My Overall Ranking: 17th

3. Ty Dillon - Dillon rounds out this tier of drivers, Ty (the younger Dillon's bro) won't be able to outrace his fellow young competitiors, but if he keep it out of trouble then he should be good for a top 25 finish. Dillon does a great job of logging laps and finishing on the lead lap. Something I think will serve him well in the upcoming seasons at the Cup level. The #95 car wasn't super fast on Saturday, but I think he will be just fine though. I also expect a crazy race, so a couple wrecked cars here and there. And who knows, maybe he sneaks out a top 20 finish? Maybe. Just maybe.

My Overall Ranking: 25th

Grouping Tier Rankings -

A:

1. Joey Logano
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Kyle Busch
6. Matt Kenseth
7. Kurt Busch
8. Dale Jr
9. Denny Hamlin

B:

1. Carl Edwards
2. Martin Truex Jr
3. Austin Dillon
4. Kyle Larson
5. Ryan Newman
6. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
7. Kasey Kahne
8. Jamie Mac
9. Greg Biffle
10. Paul Menard
11. Tony Stewart
12. Trevor Bayne

C -

1. Chase Elliott
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Ty Dillon
4. Brian Scott

Twitter - @JeffNathans18
 

Fantasy Nascar Early Rankings (Michigan)

Welcome to TimersSports

Early Rankings -

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Joey Logano
3. Brad Keselowski
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Jimmie Johnson
6. Dale Jr
7. Carl Edwards
8. Kurt Busch
9. Kyle Busch
10. Ryan Newman
11. Denny Hamlin
12. Kyle Larson
13. Austin Dillon
14. Kasey Kahne
15. Paul Menard
16. Chase Elliott
17. Jamie Mac
18. Greg Biffle
19. Ryan Blaney
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
21. Aric Almirola
22. Tony Stewart
23. Trevor Bayne
24. AJ Dinger
25. Ty Dillon
26. Danica Patrick
27. Casey Mears
28. Clint Bowyer
29. David Ragan
30. Chris Buescher

Twitter - @MattAleza

Fantasy Nascar Preview (Michigan)

Welcome to TimersSports

Preview -

1-JMac: The No.1 team have struggled all season long to find speed and he been arguably at his worst on the intermediate racetracks this season. It seems like the Gannasi program still have some work to do, before JMac is a quality top 15 option. So don't expect me to have high expectations for him, but that shouldn't surprise anyone who have checked out my Previews this season. He have been outright terrible in his two most recent attempts on this type of track. At Kansas and Charlotte, he just bad. Never even reached the top 15 mark in the 600. He performed a little better at Kansas, but his pit crew pretty much destroyed his day after the first pit stop. Prior to that major miscue, he wasn't really super competitive. Probably top 20 good at that point, and he may have sneak out an top 15 finish if things went more his way. On intermediate racetracks this season, he have compiled 17.5 average finish with 19.8 average running position and 66.8 driver rating. Of those 6 Intermediate tracks, I  view two of them the most relevant though. Kansas and Cali. Cali is considered Michigan's sister track. Both CGR cars were awful and weren't even top 20 cars in my opinion. Then Kansas, well I explained what happened to him there. With poor outing at those two tracks, he does have a pretty consistent track record at Michigan. Over the past 8 races at Michigan, he have finished 16th or better in 6 of those 8 races. JMac displayed the consistency lately at Michigan no doubt, but like so many other weeks I don't really trust him to deliver a quality top 15 finish. Honestly I think current season's data is more important than past season data, hence why I am low on JMac this week.

2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski have been among the best in the series recently at Michigan and his numbers this season only helps his case. Keselowski isn't the most flashy fantasy option, but he seems to get the results at end of the day. Add-in, Penske is starting to find some more speed and you get something awesome. He been very consistent on the intermediate tracks this season. He have compiled 8.7 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 97.5 driver rating. Only once have he finished outside of the top 10 and that was at Texas. Not only have Brad been a consistent/strong driver this season, but he also have some success at Michigan as well. He enter this weekend with 9 straight Top 13 finishes at MIS. Not only does he have 9 straight top 13 finishes, but he is currently riding an 4-race Top 9 streak at this track. When you add all of this up, you pretty much get an top 5 fantasy option. Keselowski in my opinion is very underrated here and typically doesn't get the respect he deserves.

3-Austin Dillon: Two things you need to know about Austin Dillon for this weekend: 1) He been a solid driver on the intermediate tracks. 2.) Michigan is Austin's favorite racetrack and he been on the record in the past of saying that. He loves Michigan, it is big and it is fast! He also been on the record of saying he loves big and fast tracks. Well, Michigan definitely fits the description. So it shouldn't be shocking that he was so impressive last August. He just wasn't impressive, but unbelievable. He qualified up front in the 4th position. Then he had to start in the rear, in a race that didn't see many caution fly. He was able to easily drive up into the top 5 without much difficulty in my opinion. In fact, that performance last August remains his best-ever race in the Sprint Cup Series. He led 12 laps that afternoon and posted 112.0 driver rating. That driver rating is even more impressive because how far back he started. He have he faired well this season on the intermediate tracks though. He have compiled 12.8 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 84.2 driver rating. His average finish should be even better, but his pit gun broke on the final pit stop at Cali. Which meant, not all of the lugnuts could be put on. He ran top 12 prior to that and was inside the top 10 before that happened, he finished outside of the top 20 for the event. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 15 option with the upside to come away with a top 10 finish.

4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick have been awesome this season on the intermediate and he been even better at Michigan recently. He haven't been quite as good as he been the last couple years, but Kevin is still one of the top drivers in the top. We haven't seen him go out and dominate like he did early in the year at a couple of the 1.5 milers. But he still been awesome and his numbers are pretty strong. But they been a little off in regards to the bar Kevin Harvick have set in his first two seasons at SHR. On intermediate tracks this season, he have compiled 4.8 average finish with 5.5 average running position and 118.3 driver rating. Again very impressive numbers! So how have he done recently at Michigan? How about, Five (5) 2nd place finish in his past 6 races? Yeah that sounds about right. His lone non-top 2 finish? Last June, where he finished 29th. However he was dominated on that day and was in his own zip code from drop of the green. However in that rain-shortened race, he had a tire go down right after the final round of green-flag pit stops. The race was called not too much after that happened. So his chances of making it up was extremely slim! Another thing to like about Kevin at Michigan since joining SHR? He have never finished started outside of the top 7, which have translated into strong finishes. Harvick have to get another win sometime, right? I think it could come this weekend at Michigan! He is one of the odds-on favorite in my eyes!

5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne have been the weakest driver in the HMS stable this season (to nobody surprise) and Kasey's biggest struggle have been to build any consistency. However, recently he have found something to his liking. He have finished 3 of the past 6 Sprint Cup races inside the top 10 and will look to build on recent success. His Michigan numbers actually are pretty strong overall when looking at it. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 12.8 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 86.3 driver rating. Since joining HMS (in 2012), he have finished 16th or better in 6 of those 8 races. And the two races, he did finished poorly was back in June 2012 and June 2014. Kasey is currently on a 5-race Top 16 streak at Michigan. With 2 Top 10 finishes in that 5-race span. However his past three finishes are resulted in either 15th or 16th place. That's not great, but it isn't bad either. Especially since Kasey have struggled in the past with developing any type of consistency. How have Kasey done this season on the intermediate tracks? Well, he have compiled 17.8 average finish with 21.3 average running position and 66.4 driver rating. Honestly, I cannot think of one race on this type of track that he have had a legit top 10 performance. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 15 though.

11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin have been up and down all season long, it seems like he is the overall weak link in the JGR organization right now at the Cup level. Good thing he has the win (at Daytona), because he may not get another win before the chase. Sure it is possible, but he doesn't seem to have enough of speed to run up inside the top 10 for a full-race in my opinion. He been okay at Michigan lately. Over the past 4 races at Michigan, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 15.8 average running position and 85.2 driver rating. He is currently riding an 3-race Top 11 streak at Michigan. But he have finished 5 of the past 9 Michigan races in 20th or worse. His best finish since 2012 have been 5th place and that was last August. Before this 9-race span, he was on a hot streak from June 2009 to June 2011 (5 races). In that 5-race span, he compiled 4 Top 3 finishes (including 2 victories and an runner-up finish). Since his numbers have regressed, but seems to be on the rise again. He certainly could have another top 10 or top 12 finish at Michigan. But he haven't faired too well in the consistently department in 2016 though. On the intermediate tracks this season, he have compiled 15.2 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 85.6 driver rating. In only half (3) of the races on intermediate tracks have Hamlin finished inside the top 15. The other half have resulted in 16th or worse. However, only once have he failed to finish inside the top 20. So while he haven't gone completely off the deep end, he haven't been a top 10 finisher consistently like we expect from a driver with JGR equipment.

17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse is quietly having a pretty solid season for RFR and that should continue at Michigan. Stenhouse have been a top 15 driver all year long on the intermediate tracks! He have compiled 11.8 average finish with 12.7 average running position and 85.7 driver rating. That is not even mentioning his 9.8 average starting position or completing 84% of the laps inside the top 15. Across the board, his numbers are pretty much rock-solid! He doesn't do anything real special, but he been consistent. I think that what is most appealing to me honestly. His numbers at Michigan could use some work though. Over the past 4 races at Michigan, he have compiled 23.3 average finish with 25.2 average running position and 59.2 driver rating. With that said, judging Stenhouse by past stats is a terrible route to go when looking at stats. Almost any track, we go to Ricky will have ugly stats. But he have proven that he is very capable of finishing in the low to middle teens on a regular basis. I think that hold more true on the intermediate tracks than any other type of track, too. Headed into the weekend, he is a top 15 driver in my opinion.

18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is coming off another tough finish at Pocono and will try to rebound this weekend. Michigan haven't been the kindest to Rowdy over the years, but he been a stud all year long on the intermediate tracks. He have struggled in recent years here at Michigan. As over the past 4 races at MIS, he have compiled 33.5 average finish with 27.8 average running position and 67.8 driver rating. Prior to finishing 11th last August, Rowdy have posted 3 straight finishes of 39th-43rd place. Yeah that is pretty ugly! But he been better this season on the intermediate tracks. In 6 races, he have compiled 11.2 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 103.0 driver rating. Very good numbers and he have scored two wins this season on this type of racetrack. Sure cannot simply disregard his recent poor track record at Michigan, but I put more into current season data than track history. At the very least, Kyle is a top 10 fantasy option headed into the weekend!

19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is coming off top 10 run at Pocono, where he wasn't ever a true contender but he stayed inside the top 10 most of the day. He now goes to a track that he have found plenty of success at. Over the past 4 races at Michigan, he have compiled 16.0 average finish with 14.5 average running position and 86.2 driver rating. He had finishes of 12th and 4th at Michigan and have an average finish better than 10th place for his career at this track. He doesn't hurt that, Edwards have ran very well on the intermediate tracks this season. He have compiled 11.0 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 98.6 driver rating. He have ran well, but he have had a couple misleading finishes outside of the top 10 that would've improved his overall numbers. Edwards was very happy when Nascar announced that they would be using a new package at Michigan, he said something like Christmas came early for him. Edwards should be very much in it this weekend, if he unloads a fast car then you can pretty much expect a great weekend for him. He is a top 10 driver headed into the weekend and will likely have something for the top 5 as well.

20-Matt Kenseth: Some performances just stand out and that definitely hold true in last August race from Matt Kenseth. He was dominated from the pole and nobody could really touch him that afternoon. I highly doubt that Kenseth will display that sort of dominances again, but it wouldn't shock me to see him contend for a top 5 finish. Especially since he have had a lot of success here over the years. Over the past 4 Michigan races, he have compiled 14.3 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 97.6 driver rating. He been very good since joining JGR (like he was at RFR), as he have posted 5 Top 15 finishes in 6 starts. In those 6 starts, three times he have finished 6th or better. Including finishes of 4th and 1st last season at Michigan. In 33 career starts at Michigan, Kenseth have compiled 10.2 average finish with 3 wins and 14 Top 5 finishes. Among active drivers, he is ranked 2nd in average finish (to Edwards), leads the series in Top 5 finishes and tied for the best in the series in Top 10 finishes (Smoke also have 20 Top 10s). Kenseth also seems to be onto something of late on the intermediate tracks (finish wise). He finished 4th at Kansas and 4th at Charlotte. In intermediate tracks this season, he have compiled 16.2 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 100.9 driver rating. He had some misleading finishes that drag down his numbers, he been a contender every time we go to the track. Kenseth have finished 11th or better in 6 of his past 8 races this season. Including 4 straight Top 7 finishes, after finishing a misleading 7th place at Pocono.

21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney have performed and finished his best this season when tire management does not come into play. On his last 4 races on tracks as such? He have finished inside the top 10 every single time. At Michigan, we won't have to worry about tire wear so I feel pretty good about Ryan's chances. I think that fact that he is aligned with Penske, only makes him even better of a fantasy option. I think Blaney could have a really solid run at Michigan. One of the biggest reasons is because how he ran at Kansas about one month ago. I think that is one of the more similar racetrack on the schedule to Michigan. So that definitely helps when it comes to Blaney. How have he done in general on the intermediate tracks this season? He have compiled 20.0 average finish with 14.5 average finish and 78.6 driver rating. Some misleading races in that pile of data, but really the only race I find relevant is Kansas. It also should be noted that he ran extremely well at Vegas and finished 6th back in March. Why is that important? Like Kansas and Michigan, we don't see a lot of tire wear.

22-Joey Logano: The Penske cars have found something recently and Joey Logano is getting closer to his first win of the season. Logano have been rock-solid on the intermediate tracks all season long. He have compiled 11.3 average finish with 7.2 average running position and 104.7 driver rating. He was very strong back at Kansas and top 10 good for that event and proably could've finish inside the top 5. However Denny Hamlin daredevil move that fail, pretty much ended any chance of that happening. That doesn't change the fact that Logano have had speed all season on this type of racetrack. He also have an impressive Michigan record since the repave. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 6.0 average finish with 7.8 average running position and 113.3 driver rating. He been a stud at Michigan since joining Penske in 2013. In fact, he have never finished outside of the top 9 in the #22 car. However he does have better finishes in the August races than the June races. But not like that really matters, since he have gotten nothing but top 10 finishes. Joey is a legit contender for Sunday's race and is one of the favorites in my opinion.

24-Chase Elliott: Elliott just keep getting better and better, soon he will be in victory lane. I thought there for awhile that he would be going to victory lane at Pocono. But that didn't quite workout, so his will now try to get his first career win this weekend at Michigan. I personally don't think it will happen, but I won't be shocked by another top 5 or top 10 run. In fact, I would be disappointed if he didn't. He been very good this season on the intermediate tracks. He have compiled 12.3 average finish with 11.8 average running position and 91.0 driver rating. Minus Atlanta earlier this season, he been pretty much flawless on this type of racetrack and should only get better as the season progresses. I have very high hopes for Elliott this weekend at Michigan!

31-Ryan Newman: Newman had a pretty packed full-drama day at Pocono on Monday. First he got into Joey Logano and then he got into Kyle Busch (which led to Busch's departure from the race). However despite those incidents, Newman still managed an 12th place finish at one of his better racetracks. Guess what? He now goes to another solid racetrack in Michigan. Not quite the same record as Pocono, but still pretty good overall. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 85.5 driver rating. He have finished 18th or better in 10 straight races at Michigan. Including 3 Top 15 finishes in 4 races, since joining RCR in 2014. Newman consistency is what gives him fantasy value and to nobody surprise, he have been pretty consistent all season in the lower teens. He have been good on the intermediate tracks in 2016. As he have compiled 14.2 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 81.0 driver rating. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 12 to top 14 driver. On most weekends, Newman will qualify decently and finish somewhere between 8th-14th place. That what I am expecting from him at Michigan.

41-Kurt Busch: Busch is coming off an win at Pocono and now will have a chance to tackle one of his worst tracks on the schedule. Michigan have long been known to be one of Kurt's weak tracks. Despite 3 wins in 30 career starts, he have only managed 16 Top 20 finishes in those 30 starts. Not to mentioin, he also have 8 DNFs. Eight DNFs! No other track does he have more at. For a comparison, he have 8 combined DNFs at Daytona and Talladega. With that said, his last DNF was in 2012. But that doesn't mean his finishes have been much better since then though. Over the past 6 races at Michigan, he have posted 4 finishes outside of the top 12 (including 3 of 20th or worse). His other two results? 1st and 3rd. His win coming last June. It should be noted that Kurt didn't have the best car last June, his teammate Kevin Harvick did. Kurt this season (I believe) is a much better driver. He is not going up there and leading a ton of laps every week, but he is getting solid finishes with ease. He have 8 straight top 10 finishes now. His numbers on the intermediate tracks are pretty good, too. He have compiled 10.2 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 90.2 driver rating. So he doesn't stand out, but he has 5 Top 10 finishes in 6 races on this type of track in 2016. Busch will have a shot at least the top 10 this weekend.

42-Kyle Larson: Larson probably had about an 10th place car at Pocono and finished 11th. Not too bad for him. He could be in for a better weekend at Michigan though. I feel like this new package will benefit him and Michigan been a pretty good place for him so far in his cup career. Over his first 4 career starts here, he have compiled 20.3 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 78.9 driver rating. That data is misleading, since he finished 43rd in his rookie year here. If we take out that race, his numbers would be: 12.7 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 87.4 driver rating. It should be noted that Larson probably had about an 9th or 10th place car last June, before having to pit from the lead just laps before the rain came. He finished 17th in that race, but he was top 10 good for the event though. Larson also have showed great improvements the last couple intermediate tracks. He finished top 15 at Texas, but then really made strides at Kansas. He had top 5 potential in that race, but got involved in multiple wrecks. First with Hamlin and Logano, but his team fixed his car. But it wasn't enough because he slammed the car not much longer after that. I would say there a very high chance that the damage of car was the cause of that. Then few weeks ago at Charlotte, he was strong again. However he faded as his car went away in the final 100 laps. Before that Larson really competitive inside the top 5 much of the night. Larson should be a top 10 driver headed into the weekend in my opinion.

48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson had a tough ending at Pocono, but he will try to put it behind him and focus on Michigan. However this haven't exactly been his best racetrack though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 92.7 driver rating. I consider Michigan as a struggling track for Johnson, because typically he have impressive stats at most tracks, with amount of success he have had over the years. But Michigan stands out as one of the venues he haven't exactly set the world on fire. Over his past 15 races here, he have only managed 5 Top 10 finishes. That is a pretty low number for him (imo). More recently, Johnson have posted only 2 Top 10 finishes over his past 7 races. However one of those have resulted in wins, back in June 2014. If you are looking for encouraging news, Johnson have been one of the best drivers on the intermediate tracks. He have compiled 4.8 average finish with 6.2 average running positon and 115.3 driver rating. There never a downside to picking Johnson, but I feel like he has better tracks up ahead of him though.

78-Martin Truex Jr: Man was that a ugly race at Pocono for Martin Truex Jr! First, he get damaged on pit road. Then, he has a tire go down in middle of a green flag run (right when green flag pit stops starting though). To make matters worse, he get another flat tire under yellow that requires him to pit again later in the race. Honestly after getting that damage on pit road, I felt like his day was toast anyhow. Just no speed in that car to do anything with. Even prior to that, he wasn't anything better than top 10 or top 15 car. So now, we move onto Michigan. Luckily for Truex, he have been a bullet on this type of track in 2016. On intermediate tracks this season, he have compiled 11.8 average finish with 5.7 average running position and 119.6 driver rating. Honestly I feel like his past couple intermediate tracks, the 78 team have tried extra hard to give Truex a super fast car to lock him into the chase. I wonder, if they will put quite as much effort into his ride this weekend at Michigan. It wouldn't surprise me if they did, but then again would it even matter with his luck? Based on what I know, I would say Truex is one of the favorites headed into the weekend. Especially since he have dominated the past three intermediate tracks this season. Hard seeing that suddenly changing out of the blue.

88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr had one of his best races of the season at Pocono and now looks to have another at Michigan. This have always seemed to be a pretty good place for Dale and I think some people have forgotten about that. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 6.0 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 105.8 driver rating. In that 4-race span, he have finished inside the top 10 in every race. Not only that, but he have overall posted 9 Top 10 finishes in 16 races (since joining HMS in 2008). Including 6 Top 10 finishes over his past 8 races at Michigan. 4 of those 6 Top 10 finishes have resulted in top 5 finishes. So there no doubt that Dale Jr have been very good at Michigan recently. He been pretty good on the intermediate tracks this season as well. He have compiled 8.7 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 91.6 driver rating. I think Dale start turning his season around over the next couple weeks with some great tracks on tap, starting with this weekend.

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com 

Twitter - @JeffNathans18