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Fantasy Preview -
1-JMac: Jamie Mac probably had one of his best races of the season at Michigan, but that not really saying much since he haven't really performed that well this season from a performance point of view. However I think Sonoma will be one of his best chances to be a top 10 to top 15 threat this season, and a legit threat at that. JMac is a underrated road course racer and have been for a long time in my opinion. Even in Gannasi's down years (most recently 2011 and 2012 seasons), he was still competitive inside the top 15 or so here. However he also have had a lot of bad luck here over the years as well. I think Sonoma rewards skill more than speed, in that area is where I believe JMac will benefit. Over the past two seasons here, he have compiled 7.5 average finish with 11.0 average running positon and 103.5 driver rating. Dating back to the 2009 season at Sonoma, JMac have finished 15th or better in 5 of 7 races. Including finishes of 11th and 4th the past two season. He probably should've made that 6 of 7, but in 2013 he had to make an unscheduled pit stop while running inside the top 5 and never really recovered. I remember that race very clearly because I started him in Yahoo Fantasy Racing over eventual race winner Martin Truex Jr. JMac probably won't run up front at Sonoma, but I think he will deliver a quality finish in the low to middle teens though.
2-Brad Keselowski: I think a lot of people automatically think since Keselowski is so strong at The Glenn, the results should translate. Yes, for some drivers results from track to the another translate. However, not for all drivers. Sonoma and WGI are two different racetracks and are raced two different ways. Sonoma rewards pure skill and hitting your marks, Keselowski just haven't shown that ability yet here. As this is his worst racetrack when looking at the numbers. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 20.5 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 64.3 driver rating. Not every race is bad here for Keselowski, but the finishes just haven't been there for the driver of the No.2 car. He finished 10th and 12th in 2011 and 2012 seasons, but his other 4 finishes at this track? 19th or worse. Including 3 straight finishes of 21st, 22nd and 19th. Those type of numbers just aren't gonna cut it, especially at a track that we only visit once per season.
3-Austin Dillon: I personally don't think Austin Dillon is a talented road course racer, he never really have display anything special here at Sonoma. However he haven't gotten any poor finishes here either. And like most young drivers, he will struggle to find a breakthrough finish at the road courses. But I think it only matter of time before he scores that first top 15 and top 10 finish. It will likely be coming sooner than later though. Dillon have made major gains this season compared to his first two season in Nascar and I expect that we will see improvements in his road course game, as well. Over his two starts at Sonoma, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 22.5 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. So far in two career starts, he have finished 17th twice. Despite starting 36th and 26th in those starts. So that comes out to an 31.5 average starting position, while netting nearly 15 positons in the position differential category. I think Dillon is a top 20 driver headed in with top 15 upside at Sonoma. His performance in the past isn't a great indication of what to expect, so I would wait until practice before really making a decision on him. I'll have him on my fantasy radar though.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is a stud on the road course, even if he doesn't get the results all the time. Facts remains, Harvick have been one of the best drivers since joining SHR on the road courses. The results just don't show quite how good though. He been solid here at Sonoma, but his finish in 2014 is misleading though. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 105.7 driver rating. He finished 20th in the 2014 event here, but he was very strong in that race. He led 23 laps and had the best car overall in my opinion. He got caught up in the Clint Bowyer and JMac wreck, after that he couldn't quite make it back to the lead. Last season, he was very strong and finished 4th. He didn't have quite as good of a car though. Overall since the 2010 season (6 races), Harvick have 4 Top 10 finishes. Including 2 of the past 3 season. Harvick is a top 5 driver headed into Sonoma and will likely contend for the win.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne have started to show something over the past 5 or 6 Sprint Cup Series races this season and have performed pretty well overall at Sonoma. Kahne is a underrated road course racer and isn't typically thought of at either WGI or Sonoma. But he should be, as he have gotten pretty good results at both tracks. Also he is good equipment, so that doesn't hurt too much either. Over the past 2 seasons at Sonoma, he have compiled 7.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 97.6 driver rating. Kahne started out his career with 4 finishes outside of the top 30 in his first 5 races (from 2004 to 2008 - 5 races). Over his past 7 races (from 2009 to 2015), he have posted 5 Top 10 finishes, including 3 straight Top 8 finishes overall. In 4 starts with HMS at Sonoma, he have finished 14th or better in every single start. Looking at the numbers, this is arguably his best racetrack. Heading into practice, I view Kahne as a top 15 driver with upside to sneak away with an top 10 finish. Qualifying haven't been a strong point here for him though. So don't be shocked, if he qualified poorly. The important thing to remember is, he will be there at the end!
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin have been terrible at both the road courses and honestly this always haven't been the case for him. He started his career out well at both tracks, but his numbers have dropped off majorly after his first 3 or 4 seasons for some reason. Over the past 2 races here, he have compiled 22.0 average finish with 20.5 average running position and 64.4 driver rating. After posting 3 Top 12 finishes in his first 4 starts, including an career-best 5th place in 2009. His stats have been terrible, since 2010 season and beyond. In that span (6 races), he have finished 18th or worse in every single start. Including 5 of those 6 races ending outside of the top 22. He is showing improvements with finishes of 23rd (2013) and 18th (2015 - last year), but he is still a ways off from returning to form at Sonoma in my opinion. He is probably a low to middle teen driver headed into Sonoma, and I say low to middle teen because of his quality equipment helps him a lot.
14-Tony Stewart: I usually don't list Tony Stewart in my Fantasy Previews, but since we are at an road course I will put on it. Also he is running competitively and typically I list the primary Top 15 or so contenders. Smoke is coming off back-to-back races, where he ran top 10 (Pocono and Michigan). So if he can run well at those venues, why cannot do well at a place like Sonoma? I have high hopes for him at both of the road courses. Higher hopes at The Glenn, but I think he will be mixing up at the front this weekend though. Over the past two races here, he have compiled 15.5 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 78.5 driver rating. He sucked in 2014 and that is a nice way of putting it. He wasn't competitive at all and was about an 20th place driver. Only time he was in the spotlight when he got a pit road penalty, which take away any chance of a decent finish. He finished 19th that day, which was better than his average running position of 20th place. Headed into Sonoma, I view Smoke as a low to middle teen driver probably with obvious upside.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy won his first race at Sonoma in 2008, but it took him seven more years to find victory lane in last year's race. From 2009 to 2014 (6 races), he only posted 2 top 20 finishes with an best finish of 11th place in 2011. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 16.0 average running positon and 89.3 driver rating. I don't think Sonoma is Rowdy's best track, but I don't think it is his worst either though. With that said, he have had some rotten luck lately and that alone worries me. Since winning at Kansas, he have not finished better than 30th place. In fact, he haven't finished on the lead lap for that matter. At first, I thought it might have been some testing or trying things out by the 18 crew. But honestly I don't think so anymore, just by his reaction after the races. Just dumb luck in my opinion. From a fantasy perspective, I don't want to touch Kyle at Sonoma. The primary reason is because when Rowdy is hot he is red hot, and when he is cold, he is ice cold. This isn't a uncommon thing to see out of Kyle Busch, we have seen it in the past. Better for him to get his bad finishes out of the way earlier in the season though.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is having a pretty good season so far and just keep on knocking off top 10 finishes. After 15 races this season, he have collected 10 Top 10 finishes on the year. Including back-to-back Top 10 finishes (Pocono and Michigan) now. Among the JGR cars, Edwards have been the most consistent driver and will look to keep the momentum going. I also consider him a very underrated road course racer, as he never get the respect he deserves. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 20.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 95.2 driver rating. He got wrecked in last season's event by David Ragan. In 2014, he went to victory lane after holding off a hard-charging Jeff Gordon. That remains his lone road course's win, but there been signs for more than a couple years though. In 4 of his previous 6 races (before winning in 2014), Edwards finished 9th or better. Including two top 3 finishes. In fact, he finished 3rd in the 2013 race. So it was only matter of time before Edwards found himself in victory lane. I think very well could do it again this season, as well. Headed into Sonoma, I view him as a top 10 driver with clear top 5 upside.
20-Matt Kenseth: Another JGR driver who have struggled on the road courses would be Matt Kenseth. Kenseth has been terrible at Sonoma throughout his career and only have posted 1 top 10 finish in 16 starts and that top 10 was in 2008. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 31.5 average finish with 23.0 average running position and 70.4 driver rating. His average finish is misleading because of an 42nd place finish in 2014. He finished 21st in last season's race here. His numbers overall recently haven't been terrible, but they haven't been great either though. Over the past 5 races at Sonoma (since 2011), he have posted 4 finishes from the 13th-21st place range. Again for his top tier equipment, he should be much better than that. However Matt just don't seem to perform well on the road courses for some reason. Headed into Sonoma, the best outcome for Matt would be an top 10 finish, but that is probably unlikely. Realistically, a middle-teen finish is the finish I am expecting out him honestly.
21-Ryan Blaney: I don't really trust Blaney too much on the road courses, a lot of that is due to his inexperience at the lower levels and the Wood bro's lack of experience in recent years here. Also Blaney get backed by Penske and they have struggled to find speed here. When you factor everything in, you get a risky fantasy option overall. I think this will be a weekend to avoid Blaney, I would feel better about him, if he had more experience at the Cup level though. But honestly I am usually nerve about any driver with no experience at Sonoma, so don't think I have no faith in Ryan. He will figure it out with some practice, but I don't know how good he will be in the race though.
22-Joey Logano: I feel like Logano is a very underrated road course racer, even after strong runs in recent years at both WGI and Sonoma. He is also coming off an win at Michigan, before the break. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 10.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position with 91.4 driver rating. Over his past 5 races at Sonoma (since 2011), he have finished 16th or better in all 5 starts. Not to mention, he have compiled 4 Top 11 finishes in that 5-race span. Including 3 Top 10 finishes, with his an career-best of 5th place last season (2015). In 3 starts with Penske at Sonoma, he have posted finishes of 11th,16th and 5th so far. Not only is Logano is a underrated road course racer, but I think he is still under the radar because of his lackluster season so far. Guess what? I think he is starting to heat up and about to go on a hot streak as I mentioned earlier in the season he would at some point.
24-Chase Elliott: As I mentioned with Blaney, young drivers make me nervous on the road courses. Especially ones who lack experience at the cup level. With that being said, most track Elliott have gone this season he never raced at in Cup. Yet, he has 11 Top 10 finishes on the year and is on a 6-race Top 10 streak currently. Momentum wise, I love what Elliott brings to the table. But of the two road courses, I think Sonoma is more technical track than WGI. Elliott may have trouble at Sonoma, because how he attacks the track. Making a daring move like he has so many times this season, could be what hurts him the most. However that just a guess, he could go out and finish inside the top 10 again. Honestly I rather wait until after practice, before making a call on him though.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is coming off one of his best races of the season at Michigan, where he contended for a top 10 finish for much of the day. Until the final restart, when he couldn't quite get going and finished 11th place. He now heads to a decent track in Sonoma. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 10.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 90.9 driver rating. He have posted 7 Top 18 finishes over his past 8 races at Sonoma. Including 3 straight Top 15 finishes over his past 3 races at Sonoma. With finishes of 9th and 11th place with RCR. He always have been pretty good at Sonoma though. He have posted 8 Top 15 finishes in 14 career races with 12.2 average finish. Newman won't be the first driver that you think of on the road courses, but he will be good for a solid top 15 finish. So basically, he will be good for his usual fantasy production.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch even in down years have performed quite well at Sonoma and I would say this is one of his three best racetracks on the schedule. Kurt is a stud here and will be a factor on raceday. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 7.0 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 116.4 driver rating. Kurt started out his career at Sonoma pretty well with 3 Top 5 finishes in his from 6 starts. Then from 2007 to 2010, he went 4 straight races without a finish better than 15th place. But in 2011, he turned the corner again and have been one of the best drivers in the series. In the 2011 event here, he started 11th place and went onto victory lane that day. In that event, he led an impressive 76 of 110 laps in dominating fashion. He have followed that up with 4 straight top 12 finishes. Overall since 2011, he have posted 4 Top 4 finishes in 5 races. Not only have Kurt been a solid track record here, but he been more consistent than any other driver in the series this season. Thats a good combo to have as a fantasy pick at Sonoma in my opinion!
42-Kyle Larson: I believe Kyle Larson is under the radar for Sonoma and I think that could be a mistake honestly. One of the first things you learn about Larson is, he is a quick learner and can grasp/apply knowledge quicker than most drivers. That exactly what he did in his rookie year at both road courses. He qualified up front and ran top 10 at Sonoma, until he lost his power steering. He followed that up by finishing inside the top 5 at WGI. Last season he had quality performances at both venues. But I think he is a little better at WGI than Sonoma. With that said, he did finish 15th last season here which isn't bad at all. Over his first 2 races at Sonoma, he have compiled 21.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 86.3 driver rating. I think people will pay more attention to his average finish than his ''actual performance'' numbers. An 21.5 average finish sucks, but ARP and Driver rating are far more important in my opinion. It pretty clear that Larson have been pretty good at Sonoma so far in his young career. Add in 4 straight Top 13 finishes since Dover and you get some awesome potential.
47-AJ Dinger: I don't think it matter how he finishes lately at Sonoma or WGI, people in general think of Dinger as the Series' road course ace. Just because how impressive he is with his skillset. I don't disagree with that either, as he is very talented on the road courses. I personally think his equipment is what holding him back from being great though. Over the past 2 seasons, he have had a mechanical issues that have cost him top 10 finishes (probably top 5 finishes as well) at both Sonoma and WGI. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 37.0 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 101.8 driver rating. He also holds an 1.5 average starting position for those that are wondering. In 7 career races at Sonoma, he have finished 13th or better in 4 of those races. The other finishes have resulted in 34th and 37th (twice). When AJ can have a issue-free race, then he is a lock for a top 15 finish and probably a top 10 finish too. There is obvious high-upside with Dinger at Sonoma, but there also some great risk you are taking. Personally I think potential outweigh risk every time, but I totally get anyone who plans to play the off-sequence game and avoid him.
48-Jimmie Johnson: I think Johnson get more respect at the road courses than he was before, but I still believe majority still view him as a 1.5 mile guy. Therefore, I still feel like he is vastly underrated on the road courses in my opinion. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 6.5 average finish with 6.0 average running position and 117.7 drive rating. He had the car to beat here last season at Sonoma, but he ended up on the wrong side of the pit strategy late in the event. Otherwise he would have won at Sonoma and honestly I don't think it would've been very close. Soon as Johnson decided not to pit, he pretty much have lost the race at that point in my opinion. Overall he have knocked off 6 straight Top 10 finishes, dating back to the 2009 season. Including 5 Top 7 finishes in that 6-race span. I think Johnson watching Gordon for a decade and a half really have helped him out in his development as a road course driver. And that have shown in his finishes recently, as he didn't really start hitting his stride until like his 8th career start at Sonoma. Headed into Sonoma, I view him as one of the favorites.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex is having a up and down season outside of Charlotte, okay he not having a bad season. But the inconsistent results/ inability to finish out races are concerning to me. I am also concerned that the 78 team will go off the deep-end in the summer months, as they did last season. He is a very good road course driver though. He scored his first win in 2013 here at Sonoma, but honestly when looking at it, his win came out of nowhere really. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 28.5 average finish with 26.5 average running position and 70.3 driver rating. He wrecked out of last season's event and finished 15th in 2014. But honestly he have only posted 2 Top 10 finishes and 5 Top 20 finishes in 10 career races at Sonoma. In fact outside of those 2 Top 10 finishes, he have finished 15th or worse in his other 8 starts. Performance wise, his best 4 races were the 4 races with MWR. Otherwise, he haven't posted a driver rating in a race beyond 82.4. Going on numbers, he is much better at WGI.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is in a slump right now and he now turns to Sonoma (that ''use to be'' one of his worst track), where he looks to get his season back on track. He leads the series in average finish position over the past 2 seasons at Sonoma. Over the past 2 seasons at Sonoma, he have compiled 5.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 106.4 driver rating. In fact, he have finished 11th or better at both Sonoma and WGI over the past 2 seasons. Pretty good for a guy that use to absolutely hate road courses. Helped that he had opportunities to work with Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon since 2008. Two guys who know couple things about running up front at on the road courses. Not to mention, HMS equipment typical runs near the front on this type of track as well. Overall at Sonoma, Dale Jr actually been pretty good here for awhile. No really, he have finished 6 of the past 9 races at Sonoma inside the top 12. Including 3 straight finishes of 12th or better. With back-to-back top 7 finishes in the past 2 seasons. Headed into Sonoma, I view Dale Jr as a borderline top 10 driver.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacinCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Preview -
1-JMac: Jamie Mac probably had one of his best races of the season at Michigan, but that not really saying much since he haven't really performed that well this season from a performance point of view. However I think Sonoma will be one of his best chances to be a top 10 to top 15 threat this season, and a legit threat at that. JMac is a underrated road course racer and have been for a long time in my opinion. Even in Gannasi's down years (most recently 2011 and 2012 seasons), he was still competitive inside the top 15 or so here. However he also have had a lot of bad luck here over the years as well. I think Sonoma rewards skill more than speed, in that area is where I believe JMac will benefit. Over the past two seasons here, he have compiled 7.5 average finish with 11.0 average running positon and 103.5 driver rating. Dating back to the 2009 season at Sonoma, JMac have finished 15th or better in 5 of 7 races. Including finishes of 11th and 4th the past two season. He probably should've made that 6 of 7, but in 2013 he had to make an unscheduled pit stop while running inside the top 5 and never really recovered. I remember that race very clearly because I started him in Yahoo Fantasy Racing over eventual race winner Martin Truex Jr. JMac probably won't run up front at Sonoma, but I think he will deliver a quality finish in the low to middle teens though.
2-Brad Keselowski: I think a lot of people automatically think since Keselowski is so strong at The Glenn, the results should translate. Yes, for some drivers results from track to the another translate. However, not for all drivers. Sonoma and WGI are two different racetracks and are raced two different ways. Sonoma rewards pure skill and hitting your marks, Keselowski just haven't shown that ability yet here. As this is his worst racetrack when looking at the numbers. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 20.5 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 64.3 driver rating. Not every race is bad here for Keselowski, but the finishes just haven't been there for the driver of the No.2 car. He finished 10th and 12th in 2011 and 2012 seasons, but his other 4 finishes at this track? 19th or worse. Including 3 straight finishes of 21st, 22nd and 19th. Those type of numbers just aren't gonna cut it, especially at a track that we only visit once per season.
3-Austin Dillon: I personally don't think Austin Dillon is a talented road course racer, he never really have display anything special here at Sonoma. However he haven't gotten any poor finishes here either. And like most young drivers, he will struggle to find a breakthrough finish at the road courses. But I think it only matter of time before he scores that first top 15 and top 10 finish. It will likely be coming sooner than later though. Dillon have made major gains this season compared to his first two season in Nascar and I expect that we will see improvements in his road course game, as well. Over his two starts at Sonoma, he have compiled 17.0 average finish with 22.5 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. So far in two career starts, he have finished 17th twice. Despite starting 36th and 26th in those starts. So that comes out to an 31.5 average starting position, while netting nearly 15 positons in the position differential category. I think Dillon is a top 20 driver headed in with top 15 upside at Sonoma. His performance in the past isn't a great indication of what to expect, so I would wait until practice before really making a decision on him. I'll have him on my fantasy radar though.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is a stud on the road course, even if he doesn't get the results all the time. Facts remains, Harvick have been one of the best drivers since joining SHR on the road courses. The results just don't show quite how good though. He been solid here at Sonoma, but his finish in 2014 is misleading though. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 105.7 driver rating. He finished 20th in the 2014 event here, but he was very strong in that race. He led 23 laps and had the best car overall in my opinion. He got caught up in the Clint Bowyer and JMac wreck, after that he couldn't quite make it back to the lead. Last season, he was very strong and finished 4th. He didn't have quite as good of a car though. Overall since the 2010 season (6 races), Harvick have 4 Top 10 finishes. Including 2 of the past 3 season. Harvick is a top 5 driver headed into Sonoma and will likely contend for the win.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne have started to show something over the past 5 or 6 Sprint Cup Series races this season and have performed pretty well overall at Sonoma. Kahne is a underrated road course racer and isn't typically thought of at either WGI or Sonoma. But he should be, as he have gotten pretty good results at both tracks. Also he is good equipment, so that doesn't hurt too much either. Over the past 2 seasons at Sonoma, he have compiled 7.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 97.6 driver rating. Kahne started out his career with 4 finishes outside of the top 30 in his first 5 races (from 2004 to 2008 - 5 races). Over his past 7 races (from 2009 to 2015), he have posted 5 Top 10 finishes, including 3 straight Top 8 finishes overall. In 4 starts with HMS at Sonoma, he have finished 14th or better in every single start. Looking at the numbers, this is arguably his best racetrack. Heading into practice, I view Kahne as a top 15 driver with upside to sneak away with an top 10 finish. Qualifying haven't been a strong point here for him though. So don't be shocked, if he qualified poorly. The important thing to remember is, he will be there at the end!
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin have been terrible at both the road courses and honestly this always haven't been the case for him. He started his career out well at both tracks, but his numbers have dropped off majorly after his first 3 or 4 seasons for some reason. Over the past 2 races here, he have compiled 22.0 average finish with 20.5 average running position and 64.4 driver rating. After posting 3 Top 12 finishes in his first 4 starts, including an career-best 5th place in 2009. His stats have been terrible, since 2010 season and beyond. In that span (6 races), he have finished 18th or worse in every single start. Including 5 of those 6 races ending outside of the top 22. He is showing improvements with finishes of 23rd (2013) and 18th (2015 - last year), but he is still a ways off from returning to form at Sonoma in my opinion. He is probably a low to middle teen driver headed into Sonoma, and I say low to middle teen because of his quality equipment helps him a lot.
14-Tony Stewart: I usually don't list Tony Stewart in my Fantasy Previews, but since we are at an road course I will put on it. Also he is running competitively and typically I list the primary Top 15 or so contenders. Smoke is coming off back-to-back races, where he ran top 10 (Pocono and Michigan). So if he can run well at those venues, why cannot do well at a place like Sonoma? I have high hopes for him at both of the road courses. Higher hopes at The Glenn, but I think he will be mixing up at the front this weekend though. Over the past two races here, he have compiled 15.5 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 78.5 driver rating. He sucked in 2014 and that is a nice way of putting it. He wasn't competitive at all and was about an 20th place driver. Only time he was in the spotlight when he got a pit road penalty, which take away any chance of a decent finish. He finished 19th that day, which was better than his average running position of 20th place. Headed into Sonoma, I view Smoke as a low to middle teen driver probably with obvious upside.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy won his first race at Sonoma in 2008, but it took him seven more years to find victory lane in last year's race. From 2009 to 2014 (6 races), he only posted 2 top 20 finishes with an best finish of 11th place in 2011. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 16.0 average running positon and 89.3 driver rating. I don't think Sonoma is Rowdy's best track, but I don't think it is his worst either though. With that said, he have had some rotten luck lately and that alone worries me. Since winning at Kansas, he have not finished better than 30th place. In fact, he haven't finished on the lead lap for that matter. At first, I thought it might have been some testing or trying things out by the 18 crew. But honestly I don't think so anymore, just by his reaction after the races. Just dumb luck in my opinion. From a fantasy perspective, I don't want to touch Kyle at Sonoma. The primary reason is because when Rowdy is hot he is red hot, and when he is cold, he is ice cold. This isn't a uncommon thing to see out of Kyle Busch, we have seen it in the past. Better for him to get his bad finishes out of the way earlier in the season though.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is having a pretty good season so far and just keep on knocking off top 10 finishes. After 15 races this season, he have collected 10 Top 10 finishes on the year. Including back-to-back Top 10 finishes (Pocono and Michigan) now. Among the JGR cars, Edwards have been the most consistent driver and will look to keep the momentum going. I also consider him a very underrated road course racer, as he never get the respect he deserves. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 20.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 95.2 driver rating. He got wrecked in last season's event by David Ragan. In 2014, he went to victory lane after holding off a hard-charging Jeff Gordon. That remains his lone road course's win, but there been signs for more than a couple years though. In 4 of his previous 6 races (before winning in 2014), Edwards finished 9th or better. Including two top 3 finishes. In fact, he finished 3rd in the 2013 race. So it was only matter of time before Edwards found himself in victory lane. I think very well could do it again this season, as well. Headed into Sonoma, I view him as a top 10 driver with clear top 5 upside.
20-Matt Kenseth: Another JGR driver who have struggled on the road courses would be Matt Kenseth. Kenseth has been terrible at Sonoma throughout his career and only have posted 1 top 10 finish in 16 starts and that top 10 was in 2008. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 31.5 average finish with 23.0 average running position and 70.4 driver rating. His average finish is misleading because of an 42nd place finish in 2014. He finished 21st in last season's race here. His numbers overall recently haven't been terrible, but they haven't been great either though. Over the past 5 races at Sonoma (since 2011), he have posted 4 finishes from the 13th-21st place range. Again for his top tier equipment, he should be much better than that. However Matt just don't seem to perform well on the road courses for some reason. Headed into Sonoma, the best outcome for Matt would be an top 10 finish, but that is probably unlikely. Realistically, a middle-teen finish is the finish I am expecting out him honestly.
21-Ryan Blaney: I don't really trust Blaney too much on the road courses, a lot of that is due to his inexperience at the lower levels and the Wood bro's lack of experience in recent years here. Also Blaney get backed by Penske and they have struggled to find speed here. When you factor everything in, you get a risky fantasy option overall. I think this will be a weekend to avoid Blaney, I would feel better about him, if he had more experience at the Cup level though. But honestly I am usually nerve about any driver with no experience at Sonoma, so don't think I have no faith in Ryan. He will figure it out with some practice, but I don't know how good he will be in the race though.
22-Joey Logano: I feel like Logano is a very underrated road course racer, even after strong runs in recent years at both WGI and Sonoma. He is also coming off an win at Michigan, before the break. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 10.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position with 91.4 driver rating. Over his past 5 races at Sonoma (since 2011), he have finished 16th or better in all 5 starts. Not to mention, he have compiled 4 Top 11 finishes in that 5-race span. Including 3 Top 10 finishes, with his an career-best of 5th place last season (2015). In 3 starts with Penske at Sonoma, he have posted finishes of 11th,16th and 5th so far. Not only is Logano is a underrated road course racer, but I think he is still under the radar because of his lackluster season so far. Guess what? I think he is starting to heat up and about to go on a hot streak as I mentioned earlier in the season he would at some point.
24-Chase Elliott: As I mentioned with Blaney, young drivers make me nervous on the road courses. Especially ones who lack experience at the cup level. With that being said, most track Elliott have gone this season he never raced at in Cup. Yet, he has 11 Top 10 finishes on the year and is on a 6-race Top 10 streak currently. Momentum wise, I love what Elliott brings to the table. But of the two road courses, I think Sonoma is more technical track than WGI. Elliott may have trouble at Sonoma, because how he attacks the track. Making a daring move like he has so many times this season, could be what hurts him the most. However that just a guess, he could go out and finish inside the top 10 again. Honestly I rather wait until after practice, before making a call on him though.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is coming off one of his best races of the season at Michigan, where he contended for a top 10 finish for much of the day. Until the final restart, when he couldn't quite get going and finished 11th place. He now heads to a decent track in Sonoma. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 10.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 90.9 driver rating. He have posted 7 Top 18 finishes over his past 8 races at Sonoma. Including 3 straight Top 15 finishes over his past 3 races at Sonoma. With finishes of 9th and 11th place with RCR. He always have been pretty good at Sonoma though. He have posted 8 Top 15 finishes in 14 career races with 12.2 average finish. Newman won't be the first driver that you think of on the road courses, but he will be good for a solid top 15 finish. So basically, he will be good for his usual fantasy production.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch even in down years have performed quite well at Sonoma and I would say this is one of his three best racetracks on the schedule. Kurt is a stud here and will be a factor on raceday. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 7.0 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 116.4 driver rating. Kurt started out his career at Sonoma pretty well with 3 Top 5 finishes in his from 6 starts. Then from 2007 to 2010, he went 4 straight races without a finish better than 15th place. But in 2011, he turned the corner again and have been one of the best drivers in the series. In the 2011 event here, he started 11th place and went onto victory lane that day. In that event, he led an impressive 76 of 110 laps in dominating fashion. He have followed that up with 4 straight top 12 finishes. Overall since 2011, he have posted 4 Top 4 finishes in 5 races. Not only have Kurt been a solid track record here, but he been more consistent than any other driver in the series this season. Thats a good combo to have as a fantasy pick at Sonoma in my opinion!
42-Kyle Larson: I believe Kyle Larson is under the radar for Sonoma and I think that could be a mistake honestly. One of the first things you learn about Larson is, he is a quick learner and can grasp/apply knowledge quicker than most drivers. That exactly what he did in his rookie year at both road courses. He qualified up front and ran top 10 at Sonoma, until he lost his power steering. He followed that up by finishing inside the top 5 at WGI. Last season he had quality performances at both venues. But I think he is a little better at WGI than Sonoma. With that said, he did finish 15th last season here which isn't bad at all. Over his first 2 races at Sonoma, he have compiled 21.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 86.3 driver rating. I think people will pay more attention to his average finish than his ''actual performance'' numbers. An 21.5 average finish sucks, but ARP and Driver rating are far more important in my opinion. It pretty clear that Larson have been pretty good at Sonoma so far in his young career. Add in 4 straight Top 13 finishes since Dover and you get some awesome potential.
47-AJ Dinger: I don't think it matter how he finishes lately at Sonoma or WGI, people in general think of Dinger as the Series' road course ace. Just because how impressive he is with his skillset. I don't disagree with that either, as he is very talented on the road courses. I personally think his equipment is what holding him back from being great though. Over the past 2 seasons, he have had a mechanical issues that have cost him top 10 finishes (probably top 5 finishes as well) at both Sonoma and WGI. Over the past 2 seasons, he have compiled 37.0 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 101.8 driver rating. He also holds an 1.5 average starting position for those that are wondering. In 7 career races at Sonoma, he have finished 13th or better in 4 of those races. The other finishes have resulted in 34th and 37th (twice). When AJ can have a issue-free race, then he is a lock for a top 15 finish and probably a top 10 finish too. There is obvious high-upside with Dinger at Sonoma, but there also some great risk you are taking. Personally I think potential outweigh risk every time, but I totally get anyone who plans to play the off-sequence game and avoid him.
48-Jimmie Johnson: I think Johnson get more respect at the road courses than he was before, but I still believe majority still view him as a 1.5 mile guy. Therefore, I still feel like he is vastly underrated on the road courses in my opinion. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 6.5 average finish with 6.0 average running position and 117.7 drive rating. He had the car to beat here last season at Sonoma, but he ended up on the wrong side of the pit strategy late in the event. Otherwise he would have won at Sonoma and honestly I don't think it would've been very close. Soon as Johnson decided not to pit, he pretty much have lost the race at that point in my opinion. Overall he have knocked off 6 straight Top 10 finishes, dating back to the 2009 season. Including 5 Top 7 finishes in that 6-race span. I think Johnson watching Gordon for a decade and a half really have helped him out in his development as a road course driver. And that have shown in his finishes recently, as he didn't really start hitting his stride until like his 8th career start at Sonoma. Headed into Sonoma, I view him as one of the favorites.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex is having a up and down season outside of Charlotte, okay he not having a bad season. But the inconsistent results/ inability to finish out races are concerning to me. I am also concerned that the 78 team will go off the deep-end in the summer months, as they did last season. He is a very good road course driver though. He scored his first win in 2013 here at Sonoma, but honestly when looking at it, his win came out of nowhere really. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 28.5 average finish with 26.5 average running position and 70.3 driver rating. He wrecked out of last season's event and finished 15th in 2014. But honestly he have only posted 2 Top 10 finishes and 5 Top 20 finishes in 10 career races at Sonoma. In fact outside of those 2 Top 10 finishes, he have finished 15th or worse in his other 8 starts. Performance wise, his best 4 races were the 4 races with MWR. Otherwise, he haven't posted a driver rating in a race beyond 82.4. Going on numbers, he is much better at WGI.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is in a slump right now and he now turns to Sonoma (that ''use to be'' one of his worst track), where he looks to get his season back on track. He leads the series in average finish position over the past 2 seasons at Sonoma. Over the past 2 seasons at Sonoma, he have compiled 5.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 106.4 driver rating. In fact, he have finished 11th or better at both Sonoma and WGI over the past 2 seasons. Pretty good for a guy that use to absolutely hate road courses. Helped that he had opportunities to work with Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon since 2008. Two guys who know couple things about running up front at on the road courses. Not to mention, HMS equipment typical runs near the front on this type of track as well. Overall at Sonoma, Dale Jr actually been pretty good here for awhile. No really, he have finished 6 of the past 9 races at Sonoma inside the top 12. Including 3 straight finishes of 12th or better. With back-to-back top 7 finishes in the past 2 seasons. Headed into Sonoma, I view Dale Jr as a borderline top 10 driver.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacinCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
