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We are using a new downforce package this weekend at Michigan and it sure will create an ''interesting'' race on Sunday. Not only do these teams have to try to figure out this new package, but they will have to figure out how to adjust their cars with different temps. It was in the high-70s at start of the 2nd practice on Saturday and it was near 90 degrees at start of final practice. During the race? Low-70s degrees temps. So just because you were good in practice, doesn't mean you will be good in the race. Doesn't mean you won't either though. Personally I think we will see a crazy race with a lot of drama. I wouldn't be shocked if we see a first-time winner honestly. Plenty of choices like Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson and Austin Dillon to name a few.
Alright let's get rolling!
**My Overall Rankings are based on practice, qualifying, track history, type of track success on current season data, momentum, and personal thoughts and opinions
Fantasy Update -
1. Joey Logano - Logano doesn't have the most raw speed this weekend, but I think he has a very good racecar. I thought he was better in the first practice session on Saturday than the second session, I put more stock into the first session though. Because of the cooler track temps. In the first session, he said his car was pretty good overall. His lap times were right there with some of the fastest cars. He didn't post any long runs though, so it hard to say what has under the hood. But he did qualify on the pole, so he cannot be too slow, right? Also Joey have been strong all season on this type of racetrack, so it shouldn't be surprise when he finishes near the front. Not to mention, he have not finished worse than 9th at Michigan since joining the 22 team.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson have been very fast, since unloading on Friday. He showed speed in every practice session and will roll off from inside the top 10. On Saturday, I thought he had one of the quicker cars overall. He was consistently posting fast laps in both sessions. He may not have posted the quickest lap every lap, but no doubt he among the top 5 in speed overall. The 48 have been fast all season long and I expect him to be very much of a contender when the green waves on Sunday afternoon. I also feel like Johnson is one of the drivers who likes this package. Jimmie is a wheelman, he loves hanging onto that wheel for dear life. So really, it shouldn't be that much of a shock that the 48 car have been fast all weekend. I think the 48 car will be one of the drivers who, you will need to beat in order to win.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Kevin Harvick - Harvick starts very deep in the field, but he has a very strong racecar. He looked among the best, if not the best on Saturday. He posted a lot of laps in the opening practice on Saturday morning. In fact, he posted a very long run in middle of that session. His lap times looked really strong, too. The No.4 car will find his way to the front and he will be up there in the top 5 before too long. I believe the 4 car has one of the cars to beat, but his starting position kinda bump him down the list for me though. Good news? He should be a great fantasy option in leagues that reward position differential. If fact, he is probably a must-have in those formats. In standard leagues that only reward points on finish position, I would say he still a great option. When the checkers wave, I think he finishes somewhere up inside the top 5. Team liked his long run speed!
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski like teammate Logano has a pretty fast car, I would go far as Keselowski has even better car than Logano. But he starts deeper in the field than many of us expected though. Keselowski and the 2 team was disappointed after qualifying 15th. They were very good in Friday's practice and came back on Saturday still being fast. He was very good in both sessions and was among the fastest cars. Keselowski lap times were very good and was right there among the top 5 in both sessions. I think the Penske cars have made a lot of gains lately and it will only be matter of time before we see either of the 2 or 22 win. Don't be shocked if that race is this weekend at Michigan. This is a very special racetrack to Penske and Brad Keselowski!
My Overall Ranking: 4th
5. Kyle Busch - This last spot was down to Kyle Busch or Matt Kenseth, I went with Kyle because I think has a better racecar than Matt Kenseth does. Also he starts higher up, but Busch is struggling to find any luck lately. Ever since his win at Kansas, the 18 team have not finished inside the top 20. Will their luck turn around on Sunday? Hopefully. 18 car have some good speed in it, but I wouldn't call it a dominant racecar (least not what we saw in practice). However, Kyle was happy with his car in the first session. Also for what it worth, Kyle was one of very few who posted an 10-lap average in Friday's session. That is important because track temps will be most similar to Friday's track conditions. With that said, hard to say how he stack up to the competition since most teams focused on qualifying trim. I think Kyle will have a good shot at the top 5, but more than likely contend for least a top 10 finish.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Edwards was very fast in the opening practice on Saturday morning. I would go far as saying he had the car to beat. His lap times were the best on the track at times and other times he was just as good as the top competition. He loves this package a lot and he have been wanting it for years. He sounded thrilled on Friday and that attitude haven't changed. He posted the fastest in that opening practice and will roll from the 11th-starting position. I think he will be one of the drivers to beat when it comes down to it. He always been good at Michigan and I think that will continue this weekend. Among the JGR cars, he stood out as the best. He posted the 4th-best Ten lap average in the final practice on Saturday and seems pretty pleased overall with his car. He also has the best average finish here from a career point of view, not to mention an impressive 16 Top 10 finishes in his 23 races. Pretty good chance he finishes least in the top 10. Probably have something for the top 5, too.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex had a very fast car in both sessions. He was the fastest on the Ten-lap average in the final practice session. He was 4th on the Ten-lap average charts in the morning session. Also he was among the top 6 in regards to the fastest lap. Also Truex been very good this season on the intermediate tracks. The one track that I look at closely is Kansas. I view Kansas as a smaller Kansas (also the lap times don't fall off too much), and he was dominated in that race. So no surprise that he is good this weekend. For those wondering, he finished 3rd in both races last season. My only real concern for him? Bad luck. It seems like the 78 team (outside of Charlotte) is snake bitten this season, any time they are in a good position to have a great finish. Otherwise, I don't see how the 78 car finishes outside of the top 5.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
3. Austin Dillon - Dillon said on Friday that he loves Big racetracks like Michigan, he also been on the record of saying (a couple times too) this is his favorite racetrack. He been very fast this weekend and have showed he has least top 10 speed since unloading on Friday. He qualified 8th and I think this will be one of his best race of the year. Last August, he was top 5 strong and finished 4th. So I guess I cannot be too shocked with how good he looked. The 3 car is hooked up and he will have a chance to least finish inside the top 12. I think what great about Dillon is, he was fast in the cooler temps and the warmer temps. Add-in, he been solid on the intermediate tracks, he is one of on my favorite sleepers options at Michigan!
My Overall Ranking: 11th
4. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson have been fast in everything, we have seen this weekend at Michigan. He haven't been the fastest car, but he been up there among the top 10 consistently. I think Larson has a lot going for him this weekend overall. Kyle loves this package, and he is one of the drivers who can handle these loose racecars. Also believe we will see the grooves widen out and expect the 42 car to be up top. My concerns remains, weather he can keep it off the wall? I think that always a concern for him, but more so with this package as these cars are harder to control. Larson loves this style of racing, but he also will be more prong to hitting the wall than usual in my opinion.
My Overall Ranking: 12th
5. Ryan Newman - This final spot in this tier came down to Ryan Newman or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Stenhouse has speed in that #17 car, even though he haven't showed it on the speed charts. He will be top 15 good when the checkers waves. But I feel like Newman have a better shot at finishing inside the top 10. When factoring everything in, I would say he is a top 12 driver headed into Sunday's race. Newman have been consistent all season and I think that will be the case once again at Michigan. He won't get the impressive finish, but he will be the reliable fantasy option you want in your lineup though. In practice, I would say he was a low-teen driver overall. Kinda what he been all season long, too.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott posted the fastest lap in Friday's lone practice session and then followed that up with the 10th-fastest lap. Elliott regressed on the speed charts on Saturday, but the 24 team said they are happy with what they got this weekend. Anytime that 24 team says they are good, they are usually pretty good. Elliott may not be a force to start the race, but as the race goes on expect him to be a heavy contender for at least a top 10 finish.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
2. Ryan Blaney - I believed all week that Blaney would have one of his best races this season (think back to the Kansas race), and he have not been a letdown yet. He unloaded fast and he been near the top of the board in everything we have done this weekend. He will roll off from the 5th starting position and don't expect him to drop back too far below that mark. I think he will be able to keep the No.21 car up towards the front all day and finish somewhere inside the top 10. I really like him this weekend at Michigan, this is a great track for Ford.
My Overall Ranking: 17th
3. Ty Dillon - Dillon rounds out this tier of drivers, Ty (the younger Dillon's bro) won't be able to outrace his fellow young competitiors, but if he keep it out of trouble then he should be good for a top 25 finish. Dillon does a great job of logging laps and finishing on the lead lap. Something I think will serve him well in the upcoming seasons at the Cup level. The #95 car wasn't super fast on Saturday, but I think he will be just fine though. I also expect a crazy race, so a couple wrecked cars here and there. And who knows, maybe he sneaks out a top 20 finish? Maybe. Just maybe.
My Overall Ranking: 25th
Grouping Tier Rankings -
A:
1. Joey Logano
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Kyle Busch
6. Matt Kenseth
7. Kurt Busch
8. Dale Jr
9. Denny Hamlin
B:
1. Carl Edwards
2. Martin Truex Jr
3. Austin Dillon
4. Kyle Larson
5. Ryan Newman
6. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
7. Kasey Kahne
8. Jamie Mac
9. Greg Biffle
10. Paul Menard
11. Tony Stewart
12. Trevor Bayne
C -
1. Chase Elliott
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Ty Dillon
4. Brian Scott
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
We are using a new downforce package this weekend at Michigan and it sure will create an ''interesting'' race on Sunday. Not only do these teams have to try to figure out this new package, but they will have to figure out how to adjust their cars with different temps. It was in the high-70s at start of the 2nd practice on Saturday and it was near 90 degrees at start of final practice. During the race? Low-70s degrees temps. So just because you were good in practice, doesn't mean you will be good in the race. Doesn't mean you won't either though. Personally I think we will see a crazy race with a lot of drama. I wouldn't be shocked if we see a first-time winner honestly. Plenty of choices like Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson and Austin Dillon to name a few.
Alright let's get rolling!
**My Overall Rankings are based on practice, qualifying, track history, type of track success on current season data, momentum, and personal thoughts and opinions
Fantasy Update -
1. Joey Logano - Logano doesn't have the most raw speed this weekend, but I think he has a very good racecar. I thought he was better in the first practice session on Saturday than the second session, I put more stock into the first session though. Because of the cooler track temps. In the first session, he said his car was pretty good overall. His lap times were right there with some of the fastest cars. He didn't post any long runs though, so it hard to say what has under the hood. But he did qualify on the pole, so he cannot be too slow, right? Also Joey have been strong all season on this type of racetrack, so it shouldn't be surprise when he finishes near the front. Not to mention, he have not finished worse than 9th at Michigan since joining the 22 team.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson have been very fast, since unloading on Friday. He showed speed in every practice session and will roll off from inside the top 10. On Saturday, I thought he had one of the quicker cars overall. He was consistently posting fast laps in both sessions. He may not have posted the quickest lap every lap, but no doubt he among the top 5 in speed overall. The 48 have been fast all season long and I expect him to be very much of a contender when the green waves on Sunday afternoon. I also feel like Johnson is one of the drivers who likes this package. Jimmie is a wheelman, he loves hanging onto that wheel for dear life. So really, it shouldn't be that much of a shock that the 48 car have been fast all weekend. I think the 48 car will be one of the drivers who, you will need to beat in order to win.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Kevin Harvick - Harvick starts very deep in the field, but he has a very strong racecar. He looked among the best, if not the best on Saturday. He posted a lot of laps in the opening practice on Saturday morning. In fact, he posted a very long run in middle of that session. His lap times looked really strong, too. The No.4 car will find his way to the front and he will be up there in the top 5 before too long. I believe the 4 car has one of the cars to beat, but his starting position kinda bump him down the list for me though. Good news? He should be a great fantasy option in leagues that reward position differential. If fact, he is probably a must-have in those formats. In standard leagues that only reward points on finish position, I would say he still a great option. When the checkers wave, I think he finishes somewhere up inside the top 5. Team liked his long run speed!
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski like teammate Logano has a pretty fast car, I would go far as Keselowski has even better car than Logano. But he starts deeper in the field than many of us expected though. Keselowski and the 2 team was disappointed after qualifying 15th. They were very good in Friday's practice and came back on Saturday still being fast. He was very good in both sessions and was among the fastest cars. Keselowski lap times were very good and was right there among the top 5 in both sessions. I think the Penske cars have made a lot of gains lately and it will only be matter of time before we see either of the 2 or 22 win. Don't be shocked if that race is this weekend at Michigan. This is a very special racetrack to Penske and Brad Keselowski!
My Overall Ranking: 4th
5. Kyle Busch - This last spot was down to Kyle Busch or Matt Kenseth, I went with Kyle because I think has a better racecar than Matt Kenseth does. Also he starts higher up, but Busch is struggling to find any luck lately. Ever since his win at Kansas, the 18 team have not finished inside the top 20. Will their luck turn around on Sunday? Hopefully. 18 car have some good speed in it, but I wouldn't call it a dominant racecar (least not what we saw in practice). However, Kyle was happy with his car in the first session. Also for what it worth, Kyle was one of very few who posted an 10-lap average in Friday's session. That is important because track temps will be most similar to Friday's track conditions. With that said, hard to say how he stack up to the competition since most teams focused on qualifying trim. I think Kyle will have a good shot at the top 5, but more than likely contend for least a top 10 finish.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Edwards was very fast in the opening practice on Saturday morning. I would go far as saying he had the car to beat. His lap times were the best on the track at times and other times he was just as good as the top competition. He loves this package a lot and he have been wanting it for years. He sounded thrilled on Friday and that attitude haven't changed. He posted the fastest in that opening practice and will roll from the 11th-starting position. I think he will be one of the drivers to beat when it comes down to it. He always been good at Michigan and I think that will continue this weekend. Among the JGR cars, he stood out as the best. He posted the 4th-best Ten lap average in the final practice on Saturday and seems pretty pleased overall with his car. He also has the best average finish here from a career point of view, not to mention an impressive 16 Top 10 finishes in his 23 races. Pretty good chance he finishes least in the top 10. Probably have something for the top 5, too.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex had a very fast car in both sessions. He was the fastest on the Ten-lap average in the final practice session. He was 4th on the Ten-lap average charts in the morning session. Also he was among the top 6 in regards to the fastest lap. Also Truex been very good this season on the intermediate tracks. The one track that I look at closely is Kansas. I view Kansas as a smaller Kansas (also the lap times don't fall off too much), and he was dominated in that race. So no surprise that he is good this weekend. For those wondering, he finished 3rd in both races last season. My only real concern for him? Bad luck. It seems like the 78 team (outside of Charlotte) is snake bitten this season, any time they are in a good position to have a great finish. Otherwise, I don't see how the 78 car finishes outside of the top 5.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
3. Austin Dillon - Dillon said on Friday that he loves Big racetracks like Michigan, he also been on the record of saying (a couple times too) this is his favorite racetrack. He been very fast this weekend and have showed he has least top 10 speed since unloading on Friday. He qualified 8th and I think this will be one of his best race of the year. Last August, he was top 5 strong and finished 4th. So I guess I cannot be too shocked with how good he looked. The 3 car is hooked up and he will have a chance to least finish inside the top 12. I think what great about Dillon is, he was fast in the cooler temps and the warmer temps. Add-in, he been solid on the intermediate tracks, he is one of on my favorite sleepers options at Michigan!
My Overall Ranking: 11th
4. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson have been fast in everything, we have seen this weekend at Michigan. He haven't been the fastest car, but he been up there among the top 10 consistently. I think Larson has a lot going for him this weekend overall. Kyle loves this package, and he is one of the drivers who can handle these loose racecars. Also believe we will see the grooves widen out and expect the 42 car to be up top. My concerns remains, weather he can keep it off the wall? I think that always a concern for him, but more so with this package as these cars are harder to control. Larson loves this style of racing, but he also will be more prong to hitting the wall than usual in my opinion.
My Overall Ranking: 12th
5. Ryan Newman - This final spot in this tier came down to Ryan Newman or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Stenhouse has speed in that #17 car, even though he haven't showed it on the speed charts. He will be top 15 good when the checkers waves. But I feel like Newman have a better shot at finishing inside the top 10. When factoring everything in, I would say he is a top 12 driver headed into Sunday's race. Newman have been consistent all season and I think that will be the case once again at Michigan. He won't get the impressive finish, but he will be the reliable fantasy option you want in your lineup though. In practice, I would say he was a low-teen driver overall. Kinda what he been all season long, too.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott posted the fastest lap in Friday's lone practice session and then followed that up with the 10th-fastest lap. Elliott regressed on the speed charts on Saturday, but the 24 team said they are happy with what they got this weekend. Anytime that 24 team says they are good, they are usually pretty good. Elliott may not be a force to start the race, but as the race goes on expect him to be a heavy contender for at least a top 10 finish.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
2. Ryan Blaney - I believed all week that Blaney would have one of his best races this season (think back to the Kansas race), and he have not been a letdown yet. He unloaded fast and he been near the top of the board in everything we have done this weekend. He will roll off from the 5th starting position and don't expect him to drop back too far below that mark. I think he will be able to keep the No.21 car up towards the front all day and finish somewhere inside the top 10. I really like him this weekend at Michigan, this is a great track for Ford.
My Overall Ranking: 17th
3. Ty Dillon - Dillon rounds out this tier of drivers, Ty (the younger Dillon's bro) won't be able to outrace his fellow young competitiors, but if he keep it out of trouble then he should be good for a top 25 finish. Dillon does a great job of logging laps and finishing on the lead lap. Something I think will serve him well in the upcoming seasons at the Cup level. The #95 car wasn't super fast on Saturday, but I think he will be just fine though. I also expect a crazy race, so a couple wrecked cars here and there. And who knows, maybe he sneaks out a top 20 finish? Maybe. Just maybe.
My Overall Ranking: 25th
Grouping Tier Rankings -
A:
1. Joey Logano
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Kyle Busch
6. Matt Kenseth
7. Kurt Busch
8. Dale Jr
9. Denny Hamlin
B:
1. Carl Edwards
2. Martin Truex Jr
3. Austin Dillon
4. Kyle Larson
5. Ryan Newman
6. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
7. Kasey Kahne
8. Jamie Mac
9. Greg Biffle
10. Paul Menard
11. Tony Stewart
12. Trevor Bayne
C -
1. Chase Elliott
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Ty Dillon
4. Brian Scott
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
