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1-JMac: The Chip Ganassi Racing cars are legit as they both ran at least top 10 once again at Las Vegas. I was wondering if they would back it up at Vegas and boy did they. Jamie Mac was consistent all day long and finished inside the top 10 in the end. CGR seems to have the speed to start the season on the intermediate tracks. And they were even better on the shorter flats tracks in 2016 than the intermediate. So hopefully, that will translate for fantasy's purposes. He has been very good at Phoenix over the past couple seasons. In his past 4 races here, he has compiled 11.0 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 88.2 driver rating. Overall, JMac has finished 16th or better in 6 straight traces. While finishing 11th-16th in five of six races. JMac has back-to-back top 10 finishes in the past two races this season and will look to make it three in a row. I think his chances are good of making that happen.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is off to a great start to the season. I honestly thought the 2 car was going to go to victory lane at Vegas last weekend. Then, something broke in car with just a few laps to go. The Kyle Busch and Joey Logano wreck, probably saved him from dropping further down the leaderboard than he did. Either way, he has top 5 back-to-back top 5 finishes in the past two races. He's now goes to another great racetrack at Phoenix Raceway. He has been awesome here the past few seasons. In his past 4 races at Phoenix, he has compiled 14.5 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 95.0 driver rating. He had a tough year in 2016, while he's finished 29th and 14th. Not good at all! From 2012 to 2015 (8 races), he's finished 11th or better in every single race. 6 of those 8 races ended in 6th or better here at Phoenix. This is a great track for him, I think he is one of the best picks this week. Also, remember, he's been amazing with this race package. He will rebound from last season's lackluster finishes. Keselowski is a top 5 this weekend, make no doubt about that.
3-Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon had a terrible race at Vegas and I was honestly surprised that the 3 car looked that off there. However, I wasn't shocked how he did in the race though. As he's struggled on both Friday and Saturday. It was clear as day that the 3 team were in for a long day on Sunday afternoon. He will try to rebound at Phoenix though. In his past 4 races at Phoenix, he has compiled 20.8 average finish with 15.5 average running position and 79.7 driver rating. In 6 career starts, he has 4 finishes of 20th or worse. Include finishing 39th back last fall. Last March, he had a 9th place finish and posted 10.0 average running position with 92.2 driver rating. He's very good last spring here, but that been his only legit top 10 showing at this track in 6 starts. His next best race was spring 2015, where he's finished 15th. See a trend in the spring races? No finish better than 20th in the fall races though. I think Dillon will be a top 15 driver with some upside as usual. I do have some questions about him. Will he rebound from last weekend's poor performance? That's something I am interested in seeing.
4-Kevin Harvick: I was high on Harvick last week, but he's found the wall very early in the race and went to garage. So yeah that was a tough race for him. Now, he will go to his best track since joining SHR. It seems like the 4 team is slowly regressing the past few races at Phoenix. In 2014 and 2015, the #4 car was unstoppable. I mean, this literally, too. Last season? Harvick took a step back. But I think last fall's performance was because HMS stepped down their support as the season came to the close. I think he will be back to his old ways this weekend though. In his past 6 races here, he has compiled 1.7 average finish with 3.3 average running position and 138.8 driver rating. Those are video game numbers, folks! He's finished 4th here back in November. Why is that important? It was only the 2nd time, he's finished worse than 2nd place since March 2012. That's a 10-race span, for the record. In his past 5 races, before last fall's race, he's finished inside the top 2 and led over 130 laps in every single race. In the past 10 races, he's won 6 times and finished inside the top 2 in 8 races. He's very capable of continuing his dominance this weekend and I think he will. He's my early pick to win!
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey Kahne is off to a great start this season, with three straight top 12 finishes in three races. He wasn't really as good as I expected at Las Vegas, after watching practice. But still managed a top 12 finishes. With that said, he probably wasn't that good for the event at Vegas though. As, I would say, he was about 13th-16th place driver for the event. He will try to keep the momentum going at Las Vegas. In his past 4 races at Phoenix, he has compiled 16.3 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 86.2 driver rating. This been a tough place for him the past couple seasons. In the past 5 races at Phoenix, Kahne has finished 21st or worse in three races. While 4 of 5 races ended in 13th or worse. He did really pretty well here last season, with finishing 13th and posting 98.8 driver rating. I am not worried about that at all. He had a good performance for last fall's event here. I have watched the #5 car the past two weeks and honestly, he hasn't been that great in the race. Had finishes of 4th and 12th. But often, he's ran around 14th-17th place range it seems before late in the race. Overall, I think he is a top 15 driver but not much beyond that.
11-Denny Hamlin: Denny got his first top 10 of the 2017 season for the 11 team at Las Vegas, after finishing 6th place. He wasn't that competitive for the event. Mainly ran just inside the top 10 or just outside of the top 10. That team struggled all weekend long and for good part of the early portion of the race. He will try to keep the momentum going at Phoenix this weekend. His record at Phoenix always been pretty great overall. I expect the 11 team to be good this weekend. In his past 4 races here (excluding March 2015 race - finished 19th), he has compiled 5.8 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 96.8 driver rating. Yeah he's good here. In the past 10 races overall, he's finished 8th or better in 7 races. Including 4 of the past 5 races ending in 8th or better as well. He's struggled in March 2015. He wasn't good at all for whatever reason. I am very interested in how the JGR cars do this weekend. The 78 car stoodout last week and won. Now it time for Joe Gibbs Racing to do their part. A strength for them were on this type of track in 2016, so it will be very interested to see how they do.
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle had a pretty tough race at Las Vegas. He got a speed penalty, then recovered. Followed that up, with getting wrecked on the final lap. Then that where it got real fun. Busch didn't like the final-lap drama with Joey Logano. So he got in tussle with the No.22 crew. Yeah, it was far from incident-free, no doubt. More importantly, Busch has zero top 10 finishes this season so far. That is something, I didn't think would happen. The 18 car was very fast last weekend at Vegas and hopes should be high this weekend, too. He has a great track record at Phoenix, too. In the past 3 races here, he has compiled 3.3 average finish with 6.7 average running position and 110.4 driver rating. In his past 9 races, he has finished 9th or better in 7 races. While finishing 5 of his past 6 races inside the top 9. In his past three races at Phoenix, he has finished 4th or better overall. He has a great track record here, like I just said. Good track record and like I said up above that JGR was stout on this type of track in 2016. It always been a strength for JGR it seems.
19-Daniel Suarez: Suarez has struggled in his first three starts this season. He was a little better last weekend at Las Vegas, but he's struggled still though. Clearly, he's still has a ways to go as a driver in this series. He did finish 20th place at Vegas, so that is a big step forward from how did at Daytona and Atlanta. How will he do this weekend? It is hard to say honestly. This should be one of the type of tracks that Joe Gibbs Racing usually run well on. So he is very capable of finishing inside the top 20 once again. I think Suarez will only get better as the season get better, so I might steer away from him until he's proves himself more.
20-Matt Kenseth: Matt Kenseth wasn't nearly as good as I was expecting after seeing practice. I thought the 20 car would be much more of a factor He did finish 9th on the day and grabbed another top 10 finish for the season. He will now try to make it three straight top 10 finishes to start the 2017 season. He's usually pretty good at this place, too. Last fall, he's finished 21st place. Don't be fooled though. He had to race in the bag, until late caution came out. Of course, he got wrecked on the restart though. That pretty much ended his day in 21st. Prior to that, he's ran top 5 most of the day and led 55 laps. Kenseth finished 7th in this event in last season as well. So, yeah he had pair of great runs in 2016. I think the 20 car will be good this weekend and have another at least top 10 run. I think Kenseth is a great under the radar pick this weekend. Most people will go with Harvick, Keselowski, Logano, Busch, Johnson, etc the usually big names. Kenseth is another big name, but won't get nearly much love. I like this play. He has momentum and can run well here.
21-Ryan Blaney: Ryan Blaney was very impressive at Las Vegas last weekend. He was very fast from the start and this shouldn't been a real shocker, either. As fellow Timerssports writer,
Garry Briggs pointed out last Wednesday, Vegas is exactly type of track he excels on usually. He's finished 7th in Sunday's race at Las Vegas and will try to keep it going at Phoenix. I think this is another track that fits right into Ryan's wheelhouse. Good track record here and has some momentum. Both are good to have right now. In two career starts here, he has compiled 9.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 83.9 driver rating. He has two top 10 finishes in those 2 starts, if you are wondering. I like Blaney a lot this weekend, it doesn't hurt that Penske been bad fast this season. 21 team seems to be benefiting from it, too!
22-Joey Logano: Another year, another Joey Logano post-race altercation. I will be honest, I am a little concerned for Joey this week. I wouldn't be shocked if the 18 turns him, if they get close enough to one another. Of course, that is a ''what if'', we don't make our fantasy picks on ''what if this'' or ''what if that''. Facts are that the 22 car been fast with this package and I really like him this weekend at Phoenix. It is a great track for him, too. Over his past 4 races here, he has compiled 7.5 average finish with 4.8 average running position and 113.0 driver rating. He's finished 9th or better in 6 of his past 7 races here. While winning his first race back in last fall's event. He's led 58 laps on his way to victory lane that day. For whatever reason, he has finished better in the fall races than the spring races here. Listen to his spring races finishes since being in the #22 car: 18th, 8th, 4th and 26th. Fall races? 1st, 3rd, 6th and 9th. Not saying they will hold true this weekend, but Logano seems to be better in the fall here. Only one top 5 finish in the spring time and zero in the past two seasons, since joining the #22 team. While having back-to-back top 3 finishes here in the fall time. Just saying!
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott is off to a great start this season. Seems to be a common theme with a certain group of young drivers, doesn't it? Elliott almost won the Daytona 500, then finished 5th in Atlanta and 3rd at Las Vegas. To be fair, Elliott would probably had only finished 5th, if there wasn't any post-race drama. Still, he had a very strong day overall. I like what Elliott is doing on the track right now. He has momentum and should be able to keep it going at Phoenix. With that said, I think he will struggled a little on this type of track. I believe he will be better on the intermediate tracks than shorter flats. Phoenix is a shorter flat track. He will still run top 10 though. With that said, he has been one of the best drivers with this package as well. So good chances, he can still run top 5, too. Elliott finish in the top 10 in last season's races here. He had finishes of 8th and 9th. I think he will be closer to the top 5 in this weekend's race!
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch had a tough race at Las Vegas and I am not surprise. I kinda hint around to it last week that he seems to run into problems there. Well, he did exactly that, too. No worries though, he should rebound pretty nicely here. In his past 4 races here, he has compiled 5.8 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 101.8 driver rating. In his past 7 races here, he has finished 7th or better six times. Overall, he has compiled 5 straight Top 7 finishes. Another thing I like about him? He has a teammate in Kevin Harvick. Don't think those talk after practice or before the races? Yeah, I am pretty sure they do. Never a bad thing, in my opinion. Kurt had a tough race last week, but that's okay. He will rebound and should be a solid bet for a top 10 run this week.
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson is off to his best start of his career in the Cup series. Larson has back-to-back 2nd place finishes to start the season. Outside of Brad Keselowski or maybe Chase Elliott, I cannot name a driver that has ran better consistently thus far than Larson. I think, we all expected this out of him with this race package. It fits perfectly into his driving style. He will try to keep the great start to the season going at Phoenix. I am interested in how he does. But the flats in general were a strength for CGR last season. I thought both the 42 and 1 were strongest on this type of track overall. Kyle ran great on this type of track in 2016. Struggled early in the season, but got better in the second half. He's finished 3rd at Phoenix in last fall's race. He's struggled in the spring race though. I don't see that happening again though. In his past 4 races here, he has compiled 11.5 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 87.5 driver rating. Overall in past 5 races, he has finished 13th or better three times. He should be at least a top 10 pick and more than likely contend for a top 5, again.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is off a tough start this season, but the season is young though. He's wrecked at Daytona. He had good runs going at Atlanta and Las Vegas. Both times, he had issues on pit road. He's running top 10 at Atlanta, but then was hammered with multiple speeding penalties. He's running decent near the top 10 at end of Las Vegas, but his crew didn't get his lugnuts tight on the final pitstop. Yeah, that sucks. But in the end, it is what it is. Johnson will eventually find a way to snag a top 10 finish and I would say that it will be this weekend, too. Mark my words, that Jimmie Johnson won't go 4 straight races to start the season without scoring a top 10 finish. He has a good record here and drives for HMS. They will figure a way to get back on track. In his past 8 races here, he's finished 11th or better in 6 of 8 races. He's finished 39th in last fall's event, after leading 13 laps earlier in the event. The 48 car is definitely one driver I will have my eye on in practice this weekend!
77-Erik Jones: Erik Jones had top 10 speed in his car at Las Vegas, but problem is he had a crappy pitstall. So every time, he would pit, he would lose spots on pitroad. It happened every single time. I lost track of how many times he lost position. I remember him running like 7th after the first caution, then lost 9 spots on pit road. At that point, I had a good idea that it would be a long day. The killer about Las Vegas is, you have to have track position. You cannot be losing 5 or 6 spots every pit stops. Tough day, oh well though. He should rebound decently at Phoenix. I think he will be better on the intermediate tracks, but I don't hate him this weekend though. He can be a quality fantasy pick, no doubt. But I would like to see what he can do in practice first, though.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr is off to a great start this season and is coming off his first win of the season at Las Vegas. The 78 been stout in the first three races. Out of the Toyota camp, Truex Jr been by far the front-runner. Nobody else seem to be able to put together the finishes yet. With that said, I don't think this type of track is the biggest strength for Truex Jr and FRR. It is no doubt the intermediate tracks. I think, we all are very aware of that. So it will be very interesting to see what kind of speed that the 78 car has overall. This is a good track for him, if you are looking at the past two seasons. Not great, but good one. In his past three races (excluding last fall's race - finished 40th), he has compiled 11.7 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 95.5 driver rating. In those three races, he doesn't have a driver rating below 91.3. However, he doesn't have one at 100.0 or above, either. In his past 4 races (excluding last fall's race), he has finishes of 12th-14th in 3 of those races. His other finish? 7th in March 2015. Guess what I am getting at with him is I like him a lot. He has momentum, decent track record, but I don't get that ''feeling'' with him this week. I was higher on him in last week's preview.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is another driver that is having a tough season, so far. He's got involved in a wreck at Daytona, struggled at Atlanta and struggled again at Las Vegas. To be fair, he was good in first half of the race at Las Vegas. Then, it seemed that things went south for him in the second half. However, Phoenix is a great place for him to turn things around. He was having a similar season last year, until the Phoenix race. Over his past 7 races here, he has compiled 5 Top 5 finishes. That would include his past two races at this track. He's won back in November 2015 at this track, after the event ended due to rain. He was strong once again in last season's spring race here. He was top 5 for most of the race and had his best race of the season. He's led 34 laps (3rd-most laps), 62 fast laps (2nd-most fast laps), had 5.0 average running position (3rd-best ARP) with 117.3 driver rating (3rd-best). He should be good this weekend at Phoenix, but I find it hard to trust him at the moment. I will need to see some legit speed out of the 88 car to fully trust him honestly.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
