Sunday, March 19, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Update (PIR)

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Fantasy Nascar Update -

Top 12 Drivers -

1. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch been great this weekend at Pheonix. He's qualified inside the top 10 and has a very strong car. He's topped 5, 10, 15 and 20 lap average charts in final practice. His car stood out on the long run and should be one of the drivers to beat, when get a long green flag run. Also, it is hard to overlook how strong that #18 car was last weekend at Las Vegas. He's finished 22nd, but he has a top 5 car. That speed carried over to this weekend, too. His record at Pheonix also is pretty darn impressive, which only further strengthen his case as a fantasy option. He's my pick to win on Sunday!

2. Joey Logano - Logano been fast this weekend and nobody can be shocked by this. He's been a stout driver at Phoenix since joining the #22 team. This weekend is no difference, either. He is starting on the pole and that typically lead to very good things. He has won 3 times in his career from the pole and could have a shot at doing it once again. I thought for awhile, if the #4 falls off then Logano is the man to beat. So far this weekend, I haven't found anything that says otherwise. The #22 car been very good and he's posted the 20th best-ten lap average. Don't be fooled because he's posted in middle of the session. From lap 20 to lap 29. The top 19 drivers did it roughly 15 laps sooner. Big difference. 22 car won this race last fall and could easily go back-to-back wins. I think he will come very close, but have a feeling that the 18 has his number though.

3. Brad Keselowski - In terms of momentum, I don't think any driver has more momentum than Brad Keselowski. The No.2 car team been absolutely on it to start the season. Keselowski won at Atlanta, top 2 all day at Las Vegas. So he should be on everyone fantasy radar this weekend. The No.2 car has had some speed to it, too. His teammate probably getting more love because he is on the pole. But don't steer away from the 2 car because of that. At Pheonix, Keselowski has impressive record and been a top 5 driver since the 2013 season. He's always shows up strong at this place. The Fords has looked very good this weekend, I wouldn't be shocked to see him in victory. Realistically, I think he is a 3rd-6th place guy. The 22 and 18 will be tough for Keselowski to beat on Sunday. But I wouldn't count him out though.

4. Matt Kenseth - A driver that been super disrespected this week in the fantasy nascar community been Matt Kenseth. I just don't get that at all. He was extremely strong here last fall and had the 2nd-best car to Joey Logano. Heck, he would had won, if that late caution didn't come out. The 20 car has looked strong once again this weekend. You can tell when Kenseth will have a strong race, because he's unload with a lot of speed. Guess what? Matt Kenseth unloaded with a lot of speed on Friday and it has carried through the weekend. He's qualified 12th and looked solid in both practice sessions on Saturday. The #20 car is very good and was 3rd on the best-ten lap average chart in final practice. I really love Matt Kenseth for the race, i think he will catch some people off guard.

5. Chase Elliott - Elliott is off to a great start this season so far. He's pretty good this weekend as well. He's qualified inside the top 10 and showed good speed on the charts as well. I wouldn't say the 24 car is the car to beat, but I love Chase Elliott overall. He's swept the top 10 last season here and it is obvious that he has made improvement since last year. With the way, he is running it would not surprise me if he had another top 5 finish. In fact, I may be a little disappointed, if he didn't run in the top 5 at some point during the race.

6. Kevin Harvick - I am little low on Kevin Harvick, but he is missing something so far in practices and qualifying in practice this weekend. The #4 team were trying things on Friday for qualifying. It didn't go over too well for him, so they switched back to the usual stuff. Well, that's not working either. In first practice, Harvick was a little off. Things didn't improve enough for him in final practice. As his crew chief said that they are still a little off. I am not worried though. I have faith that Harvick will have a good car in the race and be a top 5 contender before the checkers wave. However, I don't see him leading any laps for the second straight races here. Many people point at their stwich to Ford as why Harvick has struggled this weekend. Look at last fall's race here? Struggled for the most part and led zero laps. This isn't the product of SHR switching to Ford. This is the product of the field catching up to the #4 at Phoenix

7. Martin Truex Jr - Martin Truex Jr is coming off a dominant win at Las Vegas and will try to keep up the great start to the season. The 78 team doesn't get much credit for their success on the short-flat tracks, but they were greatly underrated in second half of last season. Truex Jr has been very good this weekend. The 78 car showed good flashes of speed in every practice session so far. In final practice, he was 5th in terms of best-ten lap average and was 9th on the single-fast lap speed chart. I really like Truex Jr will the momentum he has right now. I think he will be at least a top 10 driver with potential to be a top 5 contender, of course.

8. Kyle Larson - Many people were on the Kyle Larson train this week and for good reason. As he's finished 2nd place in the past two Cup races. Including last weekend's race at Las Vegas. On top of that, he's qualified 4th for Phoenix this weekend. Great, right? Yeah it is very good, but I do have some concerns for him though. Firstly, his track record here. In 5 of his 6 career starts, he's finished worse than he started. He will start 4th, so history says he will finish worse than that. He's qualified inside the top 10 in 4 races at Phoenix. 3 of those 4 races ended in 12th or worse. His last three finishes are 3rd, 12th and 21st. With that said, his finishes are trending in the right direction, as he's finished 3rd last fall. Problem is he is consistently finishing worse than he's started. So something will have to give this weekend. Another thing I don't love about Larson? He is lacking long run speed, just like he did last fall. Still finished top 5 though. I like Larson as a top 10 driver with some upside.

9. Ryan Blaney - Ryan Blaney is a legit sleeper this weekend at Phoenix. Many people were very high on him overall and that haven't changed at all this weekend, either. He's qualified 2nd and has had a lot of speed this weekend. The 21 car swept the top 10 in last season's races and he could be in for more this weekend. He's coming off a top 10 run last week. I really like him overall honestly. A lot of speed in that 21 car, his Penske teammates are pretty fast too. With a solid combination of speed, track history, momentum, it is hard to not like Blaney as a possible fantasy pick. He should be at least a top 10 pick.

10. Dale Jr - I am probably lower on Dale Jr than most people are, but he's pretty good this weekend overall. Dale Jr qualified inside the top 5 and has had good amount of speed in every practice session. Not to mention, the 88 team been awesome at this track. In his last 5 of 7 races here, he's finished inside the top 5. Dale Jr didn't race here in last fall's race, but Alex Bowman was awesome and had one of the cars to beat. He had the car to beat on the long and had a shot to win late, but the restart got ugly very fast. In the race, I think Dale Jr will hang inside the top 5 or top 10 all day long. He's good enough to be a top 5 driver, but I am still iffy about him though. Dale Jr haven't put a full race together yet. If wasn't becasue of that, he would be ranked around 6th or 7th most likely.

11. Jamie Mac - The Ganassi cars are having a great season so far. Jamie Mac has finished the past two races inside the top 10 and will look to make it three straight races after Sunday's race. He's pretty good here in the past. In the past three races (minus the 2016 spring race), he's posted 9.3 average finish, 10.7 average running position and 94.2 driver rating. In those three races, he's finished 15th or better in every race. In his last 6 races here, he's finished 15th or better. That's consistency, my friends. The #1 car been good this weekend. He was 10th on the best-ten lap average on the speed charts and seems pretty good overall. He's nothing more than a high-single digit driver or a solid teen-like driver.

12. Jimmie Johnson - Jimmie Johnson is a lot lower in my rankings than usual, but that's okay. This has been a good track for him, but the 48 team is in a major slump right now. I have not seen enough out of him this weekend that outweigh his poor start to the season. It is very worrisome how slow he's started the season off. It is worrisome because Johnson's slump usually last awhile it seems. When he's hot, then he is hot and there's nothing you can do it about it. When he's cold, then he is ice cold. Right now, he is on a 3-race cold streak. No top 10 finishes so far. He did show a good amount of speed in final practice. As he's posted the 2nd-best ten lap average in final practice.

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